Cowry market review for 2015 and outlook for 2016

Cowry Asset Management Limited Page 1
ReportDate:, Jan 2016
Cowry Research
Review of 2015 & Outlook for 2016

2015 Review & Outlook for 20162015 Review & Outlook for 20162015 Review & Outlook for 20162015 Review & Outlook for 2016
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Global Economy 4
Nigerian Real Sector Update 9
External Sector Update 27
Government Sector Update 33
Monetary Sector Update 36
Money Market Review 37
Foreign Exchange Market Review 44
Bond Market Review 48
Equities Market Review 54
Political Review 70
Outlook for 2016 83

Executive SummaryExecutive SummaryExecutive SummaryExecutive Summary
In the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, global growth
projection for 2015 was revised lower to 3.1% (0.2ppt below forecast in the
July 2015 and 0.3ppt lower than forecast in 2014). The lower growth forecast
was mainly on the back of weaker prospects for some large emerging market
economies and crude oil exporting countries.
The year 2015 was largely sluggish for Nigerian economy as it recorded
declining growth rates in the first two quarters. As the general elections took
centre stage, implementation of the N4.35 trillion 2015 appropriation Act,
which was 85.8% skewed towards recurrent expenditure, took the back seat
Inflation remained in single digits throughout 2015, howbeit, above the
monetary authority’s inflation target of between 6% and 9%. The increase in
general price level during the year was partly due to structural effects. As a
result, annual change in headline inflation rose from 8.2% in January to 9.4%
in November.
Despite the initial enthusiasm that ushered in the new political dispensation,
the NSE All Share Index declined by 17.35% to 28,642.25 points while market
capitalization fell to N9.85 trillion, a 14.24% drop. The precipitous decline in
oil prices coupled with capital restrictions as a policy response by the apex
bank, triggered massive outflows of foreign capital.
The monetary authorities seemed poised to retain its fight against dollar
demand in the face of diminishing supply of the greenback. However, without
any strong source of dollar supply in sight, we think that the CBN will soon hit
its limit in curtailing dollar demand in an import dependent economy. Hence
we expect a sustained upside pressure on the foreign exchange rate.

Global EconomyGlobal EconomyGlobal EconomyGlobal Economy
The global economy in the year 2015 showed much resilience amid decline in the
price of crude oil and other commodities. Thus, there were mixed fortunes
amongst the different economic regions. Extensive crude oil production
particularly from the United States of America and Iran’s resumed oil production
resulted in sustained supply overhang which crashed global crude oil prices and
resulted in little margins for crude oil producers. According to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), commodity exporting countries witnessed sharp
depreciations of their currencies, in part, due to lower export earnings as a result
of decline in commodity prices. On the contrary, advanced economies benefited
from lower input (commodity) prices.
In the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, global growth
projection for 2015 was revised lower to 3.1% (0.2ppt below forecast in the July
2015 and 0.3ppt lower than forecast in 2014). The lower growth forecast was
mainly on the back of weaker prospects for some large emerging market
economies and crude oil exporting countries.

In emerging economies, China’s Gross Domestic Product growth slowed to 6.9%
in Q3 2015 (from 7.2% in Q3 2014) while Brazil’s GDP declined by 4.5% (weaker
than -1.1% in Q3 2014). In advanced economies, United States GDP grew year-
on-year by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2015, (slower than 2.9% in Q3 2014)
while United Kingdom’s GDP growth slowed to 2.3% in Q3 2015 (from 2.9% in
Q3 2014). However, the Eurozone GDP growth rate increased to 1.6% (from
0.8% in Q3 2014).
However, global economic activity remained on the expansionary path (above 50
points) throughout 2015 – the J.P. Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index
posted 53.7 in November 2015 (higher than 52.3 registered in December 2014).
This followed improvements in the sub indices such as New orders index which
posted 53.6 in November 2015 (higher than 52.0 in December 2014) and
Employment Index which further expanded to 51.7 (from 51.2).
7.40%
6.90%
4.30%
2.84%
2.30% 2.20%
1.80% 1.60% 1.60%
1%
-4.50%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Y-o-Y GDP Growth Rates
Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Global Stock Exchanges Record Mixed Performance
Year-to-date performance of major stock exchanges were mixed – the U.S. stock
exchanges, Dow Jones Industrial Average mellowed by 1.67% to 17,524.91
points while Standard and Poor’s 500 Index moderated by 0.75% to 2,043.41
points. However, Germany’s XETRA DAX Index firmed up by 6.58% to 10,450.38
points while France’s CAC 40 Index gained 8% to close at 4,614.40 points.
Source: Markit, Cowry Research
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
JPMorgan Global All-Industry Sub Indices
Output New Orders Input Prices
Output Charges Backlogs
50.5
51
51.5
52
52.5
53
53.5
JP Morgan All-Industry Employment Index

Primary Commodity Prices Soften From Supply Glut
Market value of primary commodities plunged year-to-date by 25.23% as at
November 2015 mainly on the back of weakened crude oil prices as global
supply outpaced demand. Price of base metals tanked by 26.63% as copper fell
by 25.54% to USD4,799.90/MT. Opec’s reference basket price plunged by
25.13% to USD38.13 as at November amid slower demand from China,
technology assisted boost in U.S. shale oil and news of imminent resumed supply
from Iran following the lifting U.S. oil embargo in October, amongst others.
Similarly, agricultural commodity prices softened by 15.92% - wheat prices were
pummeled by 41.51% to USD157.70/MT; coffee (Robusta) prices fell by
14.40% to 88.60cts/lb; rice prices declined by 12.80% to USD358.40/MT; while
palm oil shed 19.42% to USD503.20/MT.
2015 Performance of Global Stock Exchanges
INDEX 15-Dec-15 31-Dec-14 YTD % Change Difference
DJIA 17,524.91 17,823.07 -1.67 -298.16
S&P 500 2,043.41 2,058.90 -0.75 -15.49
FTSE 100 6,017.79 6,566.09 -8.35 -548.30
XETRA DAX 10,450.38 9,805.55 6.58 644.83
CAC 40 4,614.40 4,272.75 8.00 341.65
Nikkei 225 18,565.90 17,450.77 6.39 1,115.13
Hang Seng 21,274.37 23,605.04 -9.87 -2,330.67
JSE SA ASI 48,428.77 49,770.60 -2.70 -1,341.83
NSE ASI 26,950.76 34,657.15 -22.24 -7,706.39
Source: Financial Times, Cowry Research

Global Commodity Prices
30-Nov-15 31-Dec-14 YTD %∆
Some Agricultural Commodities
Wheat (USD/MT) 157.70 269.60 -41.51
Rice (USD/MT) 358.40 411.00 -12.80
Palm oil (USD/MT) 503.20 624.50 -19.42
Groundnuts (USD/MT) 1,730.50 1,995.10 -13.26
Sugar- Free Market (cts/lb) 14.90 15.00 -0.67
Coffee - Robusta (cts/lb) 88.60 103.50 -14.40
Cocoa Beans (USD/MT) 3,360.80 2,946.90 14.05
Some Base Metals
Copper (USD/MT) 4,799.90 6,446.50 -25.54
Aluminium (USD/MT) 1,467.90 1,909.50 -23.13
Source: IMF, Cowry Research Source: Opec, Cowry Research
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Daily Crude Oil Basket Price (US$)
Source: Opec, Cowry Research
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
31,000
31,500
32,000
Opec Crude Oil Production mbpd
In March, crude oil production increased by
2.84% following increased production from
Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
A further 1.02% increase was recorded in June
as Iraq and Nigeria boosted crude oil output.

NigerianNigerianNigerianNigerian RealRealRealReal Sector UpdateSector UpdateSector UpdateSector Update
The year 2015 was largely sluggish for Nigerian economy as it recorded declining
growth rates in the first two quarters. As the general elections took centre stage,
implementation of the N4.35 trillion 2015 appropriation Act, which was 85.8%
skewed towards recurrent expenditure, took the back seat. Growth in real gross
domestic product slowed in the first, second quarters of 2015 to 3.96% and
2.35% respectively as the mining and manufacturing sectors recorded declines in
output.
Early in the year, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Nigeria's rating from BB- to B+,
attributing the downgrade to lower global crude oil prices and heightened
political risks. However, the global credit rating agency gave a stable outlook
noting the country’s more diversified economy with the services sector
accounting for half of GDP. On the other hand, Fitch Ratings cut Nigeria’s credit
rating outlook to negative, also citing falling oil prices and rising political risks
amid tightly contested presidential and legislative elections. It however affirmed
Nigeria’s BB- rating.
During the first two quarters, the petroleum sector was particularly afflicted by
incessant pipeline vandalisation and crude oil theft which resulted in several
production setbacks of oil and gas multinationals and consequently, reduced oil
and gas output. The manufacturing sector on the other hand was mostly in
contraction territory as it witness weakened demand partly as a result of
insecurity in the northeastern part of the country which partly resulted in
reduced sales. The sector was also challenged by irregular power supply and high
interest rates and.
However, following the successful change in government from the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), real GDP growth

picked up with the economy posting 2.84% in the third quarter as crude oil
production levels increased year-on-year as a result of fresh efforts by the new
President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration to decisively curb crude oil
theft in the oil and gas sector.
Nevertheless, challenges to the current government remained the dwindling
international crude oil prices which resulted in lower oil dollar revenues which
constitute a very significant part of the country’s fiscal plans. In the near
absence of economic momentum and the sustained decline in foreign exchange
reserves, the local currency continued to depreciate in value against the U.S.
greenback.
Given erosion of foreign exchange reserves, the position of the monetary
authority to sustain an official exchange rate and prohibition of forty two import
items from access to forex led to the phased exit of Nigeria’s fixed income
instruments from the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Government Bond Index
(GBI-EM) – first by the end of September and then by the end of October.
Consequently, performance of forex-dependent economic activities was
negatively impacted. The growth rates and contribution of trading activities to
total GDP also waned in all three quarters, particularly hit by forex rationing and
scarcity challenges.
In December, nevertheless, international credit rating agency, Moody’s, affirmed
Nigeria's Ba3 Federal Government issuer rating with a stable outlook. The
affirmation was based on the strength of the government balance sheet partly
due to the low general government debt profile, estimated at 14% of GDP in
2015 (against a Ba-rated countries’ median of 45% of GDP) and a mostly
concessional external debt of only 2.2% of GDP. This is in addition to Nigeria's
robust medium-term real GDP growth prospects and expectations of political
stability and institutional growth.

Manufacturing Activities in Neutral Territory
In the eleven months to November 2015, manufacturing activities were generally
neutral on the average (PMI averaged 50.0 in eleven months to November
2015). This was in spite of expansion in production level and new orders indexed
at 55.4 and 52.9 respectively as at November 2015. The drag on manufacturing
activities came by way of weakened consumer demand as suggested by
contraction in backlogs of work which averaged 46.0 in the eleven months to
November 2015. The manufacturing sector also witnessed contraction in
employment level which averaged 47.9 in the eleven months to November 2015.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, Cowry Research
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
CBN Manufacturing Sector PMI
PMI Production level New Orders Employment Backlogs

Non-Manufacturing Activities on Expansionary Path
The non-manufacturing sector was better on the average as it witnessed
expansion in activities during the eleven months to November 2015 (PMI
averaged 51.0 in the eleven months to November 2015). The sector saw
expansion in business activity, indexed at 52.9 as at November 2015 while the
volume of new orders increased as well, index posted 52.6 as at November
2015. However, the sector was also affected by general contraction in
employment level and backlogs of work which indexed 45.5 and 46.0
respectively as at November 2015.
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
CBN Non-Manufacturing Sector PMI
PMI Business Activity New Orders Employment Backlogs

Nigeria’s Economic Output
In 2015, Nigeria’s economy evidently began to falter amid intense political
activities. Over a period of twelve months, Nigeria’s real GDP plunged from
6.54% in Q2 2014 to 2.35% in Q2 2015, the lowest recorded in recent times.
In comparison with other sub-Saharan African countries, Nigeria’s economy
was one of the least performing between Q3 2014 and Q3 2015, next to South
Africa’s which eased from 1.3% in Q2 2015 to 1% in Q3 2013. In Q3 2015, the
slowdown in South Africa’s economy resulted from slower growths registered in
its finance, real estate and business services sectors; amid political uncertainty.
However, Uganda’s economy was the fastest growing, followed by Namibia’s.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Cowry Research
6.23%
5.94%
3.96%
2.35%
2.84%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Rebased Quarterly GDP Growth Rates

Source: Trading Economics, Cowry Research
5.90%
4.90%
3.50%
2.84%
1%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Mozambique Uganda Namibia Nigeria South Africa
Sub-Saharan African Countries Q3 2015 GDP Growth Rates
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Sub-Saharan African Countries Real GDP Growth Trends
Mozambique Uganda Namibia Nigeria South Africa

Highlights of Q3 2015 GDP
In Q3 2015, Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product, (GDP at current prices) was
estimated at N24.31 trillion, or N17.98 trillion in real terms. This was higher than
Q3 2014 nominal GDP estimated at N22.93 trillion or N17.48 trillion in real terms.
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.84% (lower than 6.23% in Q3
2014).
The oil sector grew, in real terms, by 1.06% in Q3 2015 compared to 3.60% decline
recorded in Q3 2014. On the other hand, the non-oil sector grew by 3.05% in Q3
2014 (weaker than 7.51% growth recorded Q3 2014).
The agricultural sector remained the largest contributor to real GDP in Q3 2015
with 26.79% or N4.82 tillion (of which crop production accounted for 91.84% or
N4.42 trillion). This was slightly higher than 26.63% contribution in Q3 2014. The
industry also grew by 3.46% in Q3 2014 (howbeit, lower than 4.47% in Q3 2014).
Trade was the second largest contributor to real GDP in Q3 2015, contributing
16.24% or N2.92 trillion of real GDP in the Q3 2014 (higher than 16.00% in Q3
2014). The sector also grew by 4.40% in Q3 2015 (lower than 6.81% in Q3 2014).
The slower growth partly resulted from the overall lull in economic activities
coupled with increased depreciation of the local currency relative to the U.S. dollar.
The mining and quarrying industry (of which crude petroleum and natural gas
constituted 98.69%) contributed 10.40% or N1.87 trillion to total real GDP in Q3
2015. This was lower than 10.58% contribution in Q3 2014. The sector grew by
1.13% in Q3 2015 (better than -3.43% in Q3 2014). The growth in the oil sector
reflected increased crude oil production to 2.17 million barrels per day in Q3 2015
(from 2.05 mbd) according to preliminary data.

Breakdown of Q3 2015 Real Economic Output at 2010 Constant Prices
Major Sectors
Q3 2015 Contribution
to Real GDP (%)
Q3 2015
Growth Rate (%)
Q3 2014 Contribution
to Real GDP (%)
Agriculture 26.79 3.46 21.12
Trade 16.24 4.40 17.22
Mining & Quarrying 10.40 1.13 9.95
Information and Communication 9.80 5.27 12.25
Manufacturing 9.40 -1.75 9.55
Real Estate 7.57 2.06 7.83
Construction 3.22 -0.11 4.50
Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services
3.70 5.38 3.56
Financial Services 2.76 6.57 3.35
Public Administration 2.14 -12.78 2.55
Other Economic Activities 7.97 8.12
Q3 2014 Real GDP 2.84
Comments:
*Amounts in 2010 constant basic prices

27%
16%
11%
10%
9%
27%
Big Five Contributors to Q3 2015 Real GDP
Agriculture
Trade
Mining & Quarrying
Inform & Comm
Manufacturing
Others
6.57
5.38 5.27
4.40
3.46
2.06
1.13
-0.11
-1.75
-12.78
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Q3 2015 Real GDP Growth Hierarchy (%)
Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Nigeria’s National Disposable Income Grows 4.54% in Q2 2015
National Disposable Income at 2010 purchasers' value increased year-on-year by
4.54% to N16.13 trillion in Q2 2015. The increase in NDI resulted from a 2.30%
growth in domestic factor income to N15.36 trillion of which operating surplus
of businesses rose y-o-y by 6.78% to N11.20 trillion which more than offset an
8.11% y-o-y decline in compensation to employees to N4.15 trillion. Also, other
current transfers from the rest of the world increased y-o-y by 17.96% to
N978.11 billion. On the expenditure side, final consumption expenditure of
household increased y-o-y by 11.66% to N10.83 trillion while general
government final consumption expenditure declined y-o-y by 14.83% to
N936.59 billion.
National Disposable Income And its Appropriation at 2010 Purchasers' Value (N Million) Q2 2015 Q2 2014 % Change
Compensation of Employees 4,155,791.36 4,522,399.54 -8.11%
Operating Surplus 11,205,178.54 10,493,370.83 6.78%
Domestic Factor Income 15,360,969.90 15,015,770.37 2.30%
Compensation of Employees from the Rest of the World (Net) 10,460.10 7,812.09 33.90%
Property and Entrepreneurial Income from the Rest of the World (Net) -377,152.13 -586,629.34 -35.71%
Net Taxes on Products 159,711.97 164,744.67 -3.05%
National Income at Market Prices 15,153,989.84 14,601,697.79 3.78%
Other Current Transfers from the Rest of the World (Net) 978,113.60 829,204.19 17.96%
National Disposable Income 16,132,103.44 15,430,901.98 4.54%
General Government Final Consumption Expenditure 936,591.46 1,099,713.47 -14.83%
Final Consumption Expenditure of Household 10,833,036.02 9,701,864.58 11.66%
Final Consumption Expenditure of Non-Profit Institutions Serving Household 48,949.24 41,804.37 17.09%
Saving 4,313,526.72 4,587,519.55 -5.97%
Appropriation of Disposable Income 16,132,103.44 15,430,901.97 4.54%
Changes in Inventories 149,411.36 146,214.53 2.19%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3,015,594.20 2,805,531.46 7.49%
Total Investments 3,165,005.56 2,951,745.99 7.22%
Consumption of Fixed Capital 959,108.79 934,002.04 2.69%
Domestic Absorption 14,024,473.49 12,861,126.37 9.05%

Also in the review period, domestic absorption (comprising domestic
consumption and investment) increased y-o-y by 9.05% to N14.02 trillion.
Savings fell by 5.97% to N4.31 trillion (following increased consumption
activities) while investments (comprising changes in inventories and net fixed
capital formation) increased by 9.32% to N2.21 trillion.
Current Account Balance Remains in Surplus
Nigeria remained a net lender to the rest of the world as the excess of savings
over investments resulted in a Current Account Balance (CAB) surplus, which
howbeit, declined y-o-y by 17.98% to N2.11 trillion. CAB as a percentage of
GDP improved to 12.80% in the review quarter (from 9.72% in Q1 2015).
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
nTrillions
Consumption, Income, Investments, Savings & CAB
Domestic Absorption National Disposable Income
Total Investments Savings
Current Account Balance

Nigeria’s Inflation Grows on Structural Defects
Inflation remained in single digits throughout 2015, howbeit, above the
monetary authority’s inflation target of between 6% and 9%. The increase in
general price level during the year was partly due to structural effects. As a
result, annual change in headline inflation rose from 8.2% in January to 9.4% in
November.
Structural effects resulted from scarcity of Premium Motor Sprit (PMS) which
had a knock-on effect on transportation of persons and goods across the
country. The pump price of PMS in the country has risen year-on-year by 7.87%
to an average of N115.35 a litre.
Similarly imported food inflation increased y-o-y to 10.83% in November from
8.4% registered in January. This was amid enforcement of the ban on foreign
exchange sales to importers of prohibited food produce and significant
devaluation in the alternative foreign exchange markets. The increase in
imported food inflation was in spite of a 13.9% decline in global agricultural
prices between January and November.

Source: Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, Cowry Research
Annual Inflation in Sub-Saharan Countries
In Malawi, consumer prices increased to 24.6% in November 2015 from 21.2% in
January 2015, climbing higher than the fiscal year’s target of 15%, amid rising
food prices, prolonged weakness of the Malawian kwacha relative to the U.S.
greenback as well as a lack of capacity of the economy to meet local demand for
goods.
Similarly, Zambia’s headline inflation rose to 19.5% in November from 7.7% in
January as its local currency, the Zambian kwacha, also depreciated against the
U.S. dollar as Africa’s second largest producer of copper was challenged by
falling prices in the global commodities market – global metal prices have
plunged between January and November.
9.2
9.4 9.4 9.5
9.8
10.04 10.05 10.13 10.17 10.13
10.32
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
2015 Inflation Rates Trend
All Items Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation

In Ghana inflation rate was one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, rising to
17.6% in November from 16.4% in January. Ghana’s inflation risk remained high
on the back of lower commodities prices and a fiscal crisis which resulted in
depreciation of the cedi against the US Dollar, ultimately leading to imported
inflation.
24.60%
19.50%
17.60%
13.29%
9.40% 9.10%
7.50%
6.60% 6.27%
4.80% 4.80%
2.90% 2.30%
1.50%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Nov 2015 Inflation Rates of Some Sub-Saharan Africa Countries

Nigeria’s Unemployment Worsens
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s unemployment rate
increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, to 9.9% in Q3 2015 (from 7.5%
registered in Q3 2014). However, the underemployment rate decreased to
17.4% in Q3 2015 (from 19.0% in Q4 2014). The improvement in
underemployment was partly due to resumption of planting season.
Total new jobs increased y-o-y by 36.02% to 475,180 in Q3 2015 on the back of
116.35% growth in new informal jobs to 428,690. Also, labour productivity
increased quarter-on-quarter by 5.14% to N768.42 per hour per quarter (or
USD3.90 phpq) from N730.85 phpq (or USD3.71 phpq).
Source: Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, Cowry Research
7.50%
8.20%
9.90%
16.60%
18.30%
17.40%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Nigeria's Unemployment Trends
UnemploymentRate Underemployment Rate

There was a growing trend in unemployment amongst the countries which
released their most recent jobless numbers towards the end of 2015. South
Africa’s unemployment rate ranked the highest in comparison to other sub-
Saharan African countries at 25.5% in Q3 2015 (higher than 25% in the
preceding quarter); Senegal’s unemployment rate increased to 13.4% as at
December 2015 (higher than 12% posted in the preceding year); which Nigeria’s
unemployment rate ranked the least at 9.9% as at Q3 2015 (higher than 8.2%
recorded in the preceding quarter).
25.50%
13.40%
9.90%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
South Africa Senegal Nigeria
SSA Sep/Dec 2015 Unemployment Rates

Nigeria’s Debt Profile in 2015
In the period under review, Nigeria’s debt profile increased amid increased
borrowing activities of both federal government and sub nationals. Nigeria’s
indebtedness increased year-on-year by 16.16% to N12.12 trillion as at June
2015 following a 13.14% y-o-y increase in federal government debt stock to
N8.39 trillion and an 8.94% y-o-y increase in the level of indebtedness of the
various state governments to N1.69 trillion. There was also a 39.14% y-o-y
increase in external debt stock to N2.03 trillion from both multilaterals and
bilateral parties
Composition of multilateral loans to total external debt stock shrank to 70.11%
as at June 2015 from 71.82% as at June 2014 as contribution of Bilateral loans
increased to 15.35% as at June 2015 from 12.17% as at June 2014.
June 2015 (N’Millions) June 2014 (N’Millions) % Change
External Debt Stock (FGN + States) 2,031,897.80 1,460,297.92 39.14%
Domestic Debt Stock (FGN Only) 8,396,591.57 7,421,097.30 13.14%
Domestic Debt of States 1,690,360.09 1,551,650.13 8.94%
TotalTotalTotalTotal 12,118,849.4512,118,849.4512,118,849.4512,118,849.45 10,433,045.3510,433,045.3510,433,045.3510,433,045.35 16.16%16.16%16.16%16.16%
%age of External Debt to Grand Total 16.77% 14.00%
%age of Domestic Debt to Grand Total 82.23% 86.00%
Real GDP as at June 32,513,943.29 31,523,301.80 3.14%
Total Debt Stock to GDP 37.27% 33.10%
Source: DMO, Cowry Research

Meanwhile, a part of the significant change in total debt stock in the review
period resulted from other economic flows, specifically, an 18.01% depreciation
in the value of the Naira against the U.S. dollar from an average of
N155.73/USD as at June 2014 to N189.93/USD as at June 2015. Consequently,
public sector outstanding debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 37.27% as at June
2015 from 33.10% as at June 2014.
Nigeria's External Debt Stock (Million USD) June-15 June-14 % Change
MULTILATERAL
World Bank Group 6,186.25 5,864.34 5.49%
African Development Bank Group 946.53 748.24 26.50%
Others 100.08 117.87 -15.09%
Sub-Total 7,232.86 6,730.45 7.46%
%age of Grand Total 70.11% 71.82%
BILATERAL
China (Exim Bank of China) 1,388.87 1,031.84 34.60%
France (AFD) 140.25 108.95 28.73%
Japan (JICA) 43.10 -
India (Exim Bank of India) - -
Germany (KfW) 11.73 -
Sub-Total 1,583.95 1,140.79 38.85%
COMMERCIAL
Eurobonds 1,500.00 1,500.00 0.00%
GRAND TOTAL 10,316.81 9,371.24 10.09%
Source: DMO, Cowry Research

External SectorExternal SectorExternal SectorExternal Sector UpdateUpdateUpdateUpdate
Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Decline
As a major commodity exporter, Nigeria’s balance sheet suffered similar fate as
with other commodities exporting countries owing to general decline in global
commodities prices amid supply glut. Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves
declined year-to-date by 14.52% to USD29.46 billion as at Tuesday, 15
December 2015 following a declines in international crude oil prices; suboptimal
crude oil production volumes; and persistent high demand for foreign exchange
by end users.
On average, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell by 1.84% to 1,884 barrels per day
in the eleven months to November 2015 relative to the corresponding period of
2014.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, Opec, Cowry Research
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
$70.00
$28.50
$29.50
$30.50
$31.50
$32.50
$33.50
$34.50
$35.50
External Reserves vs Opec's Reference Basket Price
Foreign Reserves Opec

Source: Opec, Cowry Research
Various measures by the monetary authority to ameliorate the downward
trend in the reserves, without appreciable replenishment via foreign inflows,
had only so much as kept it from eroding dramatically while the local currency,
Nigerian Naira, continued to depreciation in value against major world
currencies.
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
Nigeria's Crude Oil Production ('000 BPD)
2014 Estimates 2015 Estimates
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
Naira Depreciates against Major Currencies
IFEM NGN/USD BDC NGN/USD NGN/GBP NGN/EUR

Foreign Trade Balance In Deficit
In the ten months to October 2015, Nigeria recorded a balance of trade deficit against a trade
surplus recorded in the corresponding period of the preceding year. This resulted from a 46.05%
decrease in exports to USD38.85 billion, accompanied by an 18.76% drop in imports to USD43.79
billion as at October 2015. Consequently, total trade fell by 34.37% to USD82.64 billion.
Nigeria’s Foreign Trade Summary (USD Millions)
10 Months to Oct 2015 10 Months to Oct 2014 % Change
Exports (FOB) 38,847.36 72,006.61 -46.05%
Imports (CIF) 43,794.08 53,909.29 -18.76%
Total Trade 82,641.44 125,915.90 -34.37%
Balance of Trade -4,946.72 18,097.29 -127.33%
Capital Importation Slows
In the ten months to October 2015, Nigeria recorded a 29.27% year-on-year decline in foreign
direct investments to USD1.39 billion. The resulted from a 38.32% fall in foreign equity direct
investments to USD1.39 billion amid policy uncertainty from the fiscal authorities. Also, foreign
portfolio investments plunged by 62.22% to USD5.25 billion as at October 2015, mainly due to a
64.54% decline in foreign equity portfolio investment to USD4.06 billion amid a controversial
exchange rate control policy from the monetary authority.
Nigeria’s Capital Importation (USD Millions)
10 Months to Oct 2015 10 Months to Oct 2014 % Change
Foreign Direct Investment 1,398.54 1,977.40 -29.27%
Portfolio Investment 5,246.98 13,886.41 -62.22%

Foreign Trade Statistics 2015 vs 2014
Source: CBN, Cowry Research
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
USDBillions
Lower and Declining Exports in 2015
2014 Exports (FOB) 2015 Exports (FOB)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
USDBillions
Lower Imports in 2015
2014 Imports (FOB) 2015 Imports (FOB)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
USDBillions
Lower and Declining Total Trades in 2015
2014 Total Trade 2015 Total Trade
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
USDBillions
Trade Deficits Dominates 2015
2014 Balance of Trade 2015 Balance of Trade

Chart Analysis of Capital Imports by Investment Type in 2015 vs 2014
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
USDMillions
Foreign Direct Investments
2014 Foreign Direct Investment 2015 Foreign Direct Investment
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
USDMillions
Foreign Portfolio Investments
2014 Portfolio Investment 2015 Portfolio Investment
11%
72%
17%
2014 %age Capital Importation by Investment Type
FDI FPI Others
17%
62%
21%
2015 %age Capital Importation by Investment Type
FDI FPI Others

Capital Imports by Nature of Business in 2015 vs 2014
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
USDMillions
2014 %age Capital Importation by Nature of Business
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
USDMillions
66%
13%
5%
5%
5%
6%
SHARES FINANCING TELECOMMUNICATION
BANKING MANUFACTURING Others
60%
11%
10%
9%
4%
6%
SHARES TELECOMMUNICATION FINANCING
BANKING MANUFACTURING Others

Government Sector UpdateGovernment Sector UpdateGovernment Sector UpdateGovernment Sector Update
The public sector saw decline in revenues amid general decline in economic
activities and as attention shifted to electioneering. Gross Federation Account
Revenue in the first nine months to September 2015 decreased y-o-y by 32.02%
to N5.36 trillion relative to gross amount in the corresponding period of 2014.
Decline in gross revenue was driven by 43.70% y-o-y plunge in oil revenue to
N2.99 trillion as crude oil/gas sales plummeted by 56.18% to N685.78 billion
while PPT/Royalties declined by 47% to N1.39 trillion. On the other hand, non-
oil revenue fell y-o-y by 7.74% to N2.37 trillion as Companies Income Tax &
Other Taxes declined by 25.37% to N749.97 billion.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria; Cowry Research
5,365.62
2,999.24
2,366.39
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
9,000.00
Fed-collected revenue
(Gross)
Oil Revenue Non-Oil Revenue
Breakdown of Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion)
9 Months to 2014 9 Months to 2015

Federal Government Fiscal Operations
The Federal Government’s fiscal operations during the first nine months to
September resulted in deficit balance of N450.90 billion, albeit, 33.27% less than
N675.70 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2014. This followed a
16.68% y-o-y decrease in retained revenue to N2.33 trillion, accompanied by a
19.90% y-o-y decrease in expenditure to N2.78 trillion. In the review period,
recurrent expenditure accounted for 84% of total spends (higher than 74% in
2014) while capex got only 6% (lower than 8% in 2014).
Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion)
9 Months to 2015 9 Months to 2014 %
Change
Oil Revenue 2,999.24 5,327.50 -43.70%
Crude oil/Gas Sales 685.78 1,565.03 -56.18%
PPT/Royalties 1,393.72 2,629.67 -47.00%
Others 919.74 1,132.80 -18.81%
Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion)
9 Months to 2015 9 Months to 2014 %
Change
Non-Oil Revenue 2,366.39 2,564.39 -7.72%
Value-Added Tax (VAT) 600.95 601.34 -0.06%
Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes 749.97 1,004.92 -25.37%
Customs & Excise Duties 404.50 409.44 -1.21%
Others 610.97 548.69 11.35%

Breakdown of Federal Government Expenditure (N Billion)
2,332.40
2,783.30
-450.90
-1,000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
Retained Revenue Expenditure Overall Balance
Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
9 Months to 2014 9 Months to 2015
74%
18%
8%
9 Months to 2014
Recurrent Capital Transfers
84%
10%
6%
9 Months to 2015
Recurrent Capital Transfers

Monetary Sector UpdateMonetary Sector UpdateMonetary Sector UpdateMonetary Sector Update
Total money supply, M2, in the economy increased year-to-date by 9.11% to
N18.37 trillion in November as Net Domestic Assets declined by 3.70% to
N13.08 trillion and Net Foreign Assets fell by 28.14% to N5.29 trillion. Increase
in M2 followed a 7.76% growth in quasi money (near money financial
instruments) to N11.39 trillion over the same period. In the same vein, narrow
money, M1, increased by 11.39% to N6.98 trillion as demand deposits increased
by 16.73% to N5.72 trillion which more than offset a 7.76% decline in currency
outside banks to N1.26 trillion. Meanwhile, reserve money fell by 5.45% to
N5.64 trillion. On the asset side of the banking system balance sheet, credit to
the private sector increased by 3.08% to N18.71 trillion as credit to the
government fell by 187.43% to N1.76 trillion.
Monetary Survey Date Value YTD % ∆
Currency outside banks (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 1.26 -7.76
Bank reserves (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 4.01 -3.85
Currency in circulation (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 1.63 -9.16
Reserve money (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 5.64 -5.45
Demand deposits (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 5.72 16.73
M1 Money (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 6.98 11.39
Quasi money (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 11.39 7.76
M2 Money (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 18.37 9.11
Monetary Policy Rate (%) Nov, 2015 11% -15.38
Credit to the Government (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 1.76 -187.43
Credit To the Private Sector (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 18.71 3.08
Net Domestic Credit (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 20.47 26.92
Net Foreign Assets (Ntrn) Nov, 2015 5.29 -28.14

Money Market ReviewMoney Market ReviewMoney Market ReviewMoney Market Review
Monetary Authority Relax Policies to Egg Economic Growth
In the year under review, the interbank money market witnessed greater boost in
financial system liquidity in comparison to the corresponding period of 2014. This
was against the backdrop of less withdrawal via auctions in both primary market
and open market operations which made up for decline in inflows through both
market segments.
In the eleven months to November 2015, the banking system also recorded lower
disbursements from Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) into the
accounts of the three tiers of governments – a 22.46% year-on-year decline to
N5.43 trillion.
Monetary policies which were initially tightened in order to curb inflationary
pressures from increased political spending activities and high foreign exchange
demand, amongst others, were eventually loosened up, partly due to the
expediency of egging economic growth amid high foreign exchange rates in a
highly import-dependent economy. The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was reduced
from 13% to 11% (with an asymmetric corridor +2 and -7% around the MPR as
against a previously symmetric corridor of ±2%). Net Open Position was increased
to 0.5% from 0.1%.
In May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) harmonized the Cash Reserve
Ratio (CRR) on public and private sector deposits at 31.0% (from public sector
deposits CRR of 75% and private sector deposits CRR of 20%) but was
subsequently reduced to 25% in September and, eventually, 20% in November.
Liquidity Ratio was unchanged at 30%.

Decreased Open Market Operations Activities in 2015
As at December 15, 2015, Central Bank of Nigeria sold less treasury bills in its bi-
monthly auctions at the primary market in 2015 relative to the corresponding
period of the preceding year. In the review period, CBN sold a total of N3.58
trillion, a 6.34% year-on-year decrease compared to N3.82 trillion in 2014.
There were also relatively less matured treasury bills which fell by 26.04% to
N8.69 trillion via both primary market and OMO. Consequently, the Interbank
money market recorded net inflows amounting to N1.29 trillion, 94.77% higher
N664.02 billion net inflows in 2014. Also, average marginal rates of the 182-day
and 364-day tenors were relatively higher in the review period than in the
corresponding period of 2014 amid increased political and economic risks.
Marginal Rates of Treasury Bills in 2015 and 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
91-day 182-day 364-day 2014 Inflation (YoY)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
91-day 182-day 364-day 2015 Inflation (YoY)

Central Bank 2015 Monetary Operations
2015 2014
(N ‘million) (N ‘million) % Change
System Injections
Primary Market 3,850,932.82 5,063,008.71 -23.94%
Open Market Operations 4,843,184.83 6,692,593.19 -27.63%
Total Inflows 8,694,117.65 11,755,601.90 -26.04%
System Withdrawals
Primary Market Auctions 3,580,844.72 3,823,375.52 -6.34%
Open Market Operations 3,819,952.45 7,268,202.40 -47.44%
Total Outflows 7,400,797.18 11,091,577.92 -33.28%
Net System Inflows 1,293,320.47 664,023.99 94.77%
Source: Central Bank Nigeria, Cowry Research
FAAC Disbursements in 2015
2015 2014
(N ‘million) (N ‘million) % Change
January 580.4 581.5 -0.19%
February 500.10 629.12 -20.51%
March 522.05 641.29 -18.59%
April 435.06 641.38 -32.17%
May 388.34 634.72 -38.82%
June 359.37 683.3 -47.41%
July 923.88 755.95 22.21%
August 521.27 630.30 -17.30%
September 442.61 611.70 -27.64%
October 389.9 603.59 -35.40%
November 369.88 593.34 -37.66%
December NA* 628.77
Total 5,432.86 7,634.96
Source: Cowry Research
*Not Available as at report time

Spiked Movements in Interbank Rates on TSA and CRR Adjustments
The implementation of Treasury Single Account (TSA) coupled with the prior
adoption and subsequent adjustments of CRR mechanisms exerted pressure on
liquidity in the interbank money market resulted in the spike in lending rates,
particularly for overnight funds which got to 93.12%. On the average, overnight
funds rate and 3 months NIBOR rose to 15.06% and 15.77%, higher than
12.55% and 13.43% in 2014.
Nigerian Interbank Offer Rates in 2015 vs 2014
Overnight NIBOR 3 Months NIBOR Overnight NIBOR 3 Months NIBOR
2015 Low 0.85% 10.43% H1 2014 Low 9.50% 11.17%
2015 High 93.12% 22.26% H1 2014 High 65.79% 18.79%
2015 Average 15.06% 15.77% H1 2014 Average 12.55% 13.43%
Source: Financial Markets Dealers Quotation; Cowry Research
NIBOR movement in 2015 vs 2014 (in %ages)
Source: Financial Markets Dealers Quotation; Cowry Research
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Overnight NIBOR 3 MTHS NIBOR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Overnight NIBOR 3 MTHS NIBOR

Lenders Shun Investments via Standard Deposit Facility
In the review period, deposit money banks’ investments via standard deposit
facility declined on account of restriction of remunerable daily placements with
the apex bank to N7.5 billion per bank; consequently; standard deposit facility
decreased by 63.80% to N21.54 trillion. On the other hand, the DMOs accessed
more loans from the apex bank as standard lending facility rose 123.63% to
N6.71 trillion.
Transactions with Apex Bank (N Million)
2015 2014 % Change
Standard Lending Facility 6,713,521.71 3,002,031.19 123.63%
Standard Deposit Facility 21,542,233.42 59,513,559.18 -63.80%
Lower Real Returns in 2015…
Against the backdrop of relatively high CRR regime in the first nine months to
September, commercial banks increased interest rates on their term deposit
between May and September in order to attract more funds from the private
sector. However, as CRR was reduced to 20% in September, interest rates began
to fall from October. In addition, relatively inflation rate in the review year
resulted in lower real returns to depositors in 2014. Real returns in 2015
averaged 0.06% compared to 1.37% in 2014.
In the eleven months to November, Savings deposit rate averaged 3.61% in the
review period (higher than 3.36% in 2014); interest rates on 1 month deposits

averaged 8.58% in 2015 (higher than 8.32% in 2014) while interest rates on 12
months deposits averaged 9.02% in 2015 (higher than 9.11% in 2014).
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Real Returns on 12 Months Deposits
2015 Real Returns 2014 Real Returns
Real returns on 12 months deposits with
commercial banks turned negative in April,
May, October and November of 2015 amid
increased inflation rates
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2014 Interest Rates vs Inflation Rates (%ages)
1 Month Deposit Rate 12 Months Deposit Rate
Savings Deposit Rate Inflation
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2015 Interest Rates vs Inflation Rates (%ages)
1 Month Deposit Rate 12 Months Deposit Rate
Savings Deposit Rate Inflation

GAP between Prime Lending Rates and Maximum Lending Rates Widens
In the review period, maximum lending rates to borrowers increased in tandem
with the increase in interest rates on deposits. Prime lending rates also increased
compared to rates in the corresponding period of 2014. On average, maximum
lending rate was 26.69% in 2015 (higher than 25.73% in 2014) while prime
lending rate in the review period was 16.84% (lower than 16.61% in 2014).
Consequently, the gap between prime lending rates and maximum lending rates
widened further.
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Prime Lending Rates vs Maximum Lending Rates
2015 Prime Lending Rate 2015 Maximum Lending Rate
2014 Prime Lending Rate 2014 Maximum Lending Rate

ForeignForeignForeignForeign ExchangeExchangeExchangeExchange MarketMarketMarketMarket ReviewReviewReviewReview
Spread between Official and Alternative Market Segment Widen…
In furtherance to the apex bank’s strategic priority aimed at achieving exchange
rate stability, the bank continued to enforce strict capital controls, which are
central to its foreign exchange management strategy as the apex bank grapples
with dwindling external reserves and declining oil prices. The central bank largely
employed unconventional policies aimed at curbing rent seeking activities.
However, this led to a further widening of the spread between official rates and
parallel market rates. In addition, a USD sale via the RDAS window was annulled
while a ‘clearing rate’ of N197/USD was instituted. This act represented a tacit
devaluation of the Naira by the apex bank. Also, dollar sales to lenders at the
interbank foreign exchange market was changed to an order driven system
(known as the order based two way quote system) as against the OTC quote
driven system.
USD 150.00
USD 170.00
USD 190.00
USD 210.00
USD 230.00
USD 250.00
USD 270.00
USD 290.00
rdas Parallel

Major CBN Interventions in the year under review
Measures adopted by the apex bank to conserve the foreign exchange reserves,
check speculative activities in the foreign exchange market as well as enhance
availability of foreign currency to genuine end users include:
In January, banks were required to utilize funds purchased from the
autonomous/interbank foreign exchange market within 72 hours from the
value date, failing which such funds must be returned to the CBN at the
Bank’s purchase rate.
In order to curb speculative demand in the market, the apex bank directed
that both RDAS and interbank funds be used strictly for funding of Letters
of Credit, Bills of Collection and other invisible transactions. The CBN also
directed that these funds could no longer be sold to BDCs and other
authorized dealers.
To improve trading liquidity, Net Foreign Exchange Trading Position
(NFETP) was reviewed upward from 0.1% to 0.5%. The NFETP is the
percentage of shareholders’ funds unimpaired by losses at the close of
trading each day. Also, weekly forex cash sales to Bureaux De Change was
reviewed upward from USD15,000 to USD30,000.
The RDAS/WDAS foreign exchange window at the CBN was annulled and
all demand for foreign exchange was channelled to the interbank foreign
exchange market tied to a clearing rate of N199/USD. This was a tacit
devaluation of the Naira as USD was previously sold at N168/USD +/-5, at
the RDAS auction.
Trading in the interbank market was changed to an order driven system
(order based two way quote system) as against the OTC quote driven
system which is standard global practice.

All authorized dealers required to repatriate export proceeds into the
export proceeds domiciliary accounts of the respective exporters’ accounts
within 90 days (for oil exports) and 180 days (for non-oil exports), failing
which the collecting bank will be liable to a fine of 10% of the FOB value
of the transaction.
In March, Central Bank set the price at which banks could access U.S.
Dollars from oil companies at not more than N2 spread to its clearing rate.
Banks were also barred from reselling oil company dollars except the sale
was backed by a customer order.
In furtherance of CBN’s efforts to reduce the demand for forex and
manage the country’s foreign reserves, the apex bank, in April, announced
the downward review of the existing limit on the usage of Naira
denominated debit/credit cards used for overseas transactions.
Consequently, the annual transaction limit was reduced to USD50,000 from
USD150,000, while the daily transaction limit was reviewed to USD300
from the previous USD500.
In June, the CBN prohibited importers of certain items from accessing
foreign exchange market. The affected items include staples, textiles,
plastics, steel-based products, wood-based products and financial
instruments such as Eurobonds, foreign currency bonds and shares. The
measure, according to the apex bank, was expected to help conserve
foreign reserves.
CBN introduced 20% charge on dollar cash deposits by Deposit Money
Banks (DMB). Consequently, some DMBs discouraged public dollar cash
deposits by raising the charge for such deposits to 25% of deposited
amount while others discouraged dollar deposits all together.
In the month of November, the CBN began enforcing the use of the Bank
Verification Number for authenticating foreign exchange transactions.

In December of 2015, Deposit Money Banks banned the use of Naira
denominated debit cards overseas effective January 2016.
The Local Currency Weakens at Local Forex Markets
As a direct impact of CBN policies, the Naira depreciated by 17.26% to
N196.95/USD at the official segment of the foreign exchange market in the
year under review. Similarly, the Naira lost 6.99% year-to-date to N199.1/USD
at the interbank market. The local currency also suffered massive declines at
the alternative market segments- the Naira lost 39.84% to N265/USD at the
Bureau De Change segment while it slid by 38.74% at the parallel market
segment to N270/USD.
USD/Naira Foreign Exchange Rates
Foreign Exchange Markets 2015 Close 2014 Close 2015 YTD %∆ 2014 YTD %∆
USD/Naira Pair
RDAS/Clearing Rate 197 168 17.26 7.90
Interbank Market 199.1 186.1 6.99 16.28
Bureau De Change 265 189.50 39.84 10.82
Parallel Market 270 191.00 41.36 10.40
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria; Financial Markets Dealers Quotation, Cowry Research

Bond Market ReviewBond Market ReviewBond Market ReviewBond Market Review
The local debt market remains robust and resilient
The Nigerian bond market grew in the domestic debt segment as against the
market for international debt which saw declines in issues in sovereign and
corporate debt issuance in 2015. The face value of the Nigerian local
denominated debt market grew by 28.6% to N6.9 trillion (from N5.37 trillion in
2014). This was driven by the face value for FGN Naira denominated bonds
which grew by 24% to N5.93 trillion. The rise in the value of FGN bonds was due
to the recent conversion of state loans into the 20-year FGN 12.1493% JUL
2034 bond at a transaction yield of 14.83%. The outstanding value of the 20-
year FGN 12.1493% JUL 2034 bond jumped by 504% to N1.075 trillion from
N178 billion in the preceding year.
FGN Bond
Outstanding Value 2014
(N Billions)
Outstanding Value 2015
(N Billions)
5-Year, 4.00 23-APR-
2015
535 0
5-Year, 15.10 27-APR-
2017
452.80 480.13
5-Year, 15.54 13-FEB-
2020
- 451.93
10-Year, 14.20 14-
MAR-2024
414.68 719.99
20-Year, 12.1493 18-
JUL-2034
178.00 1,075.92
Source: Financial Markets Dealers Quotation, Cowry Research

The Local Primary Market
Demand for FGN Bonds Remained Strong Despite the Exit of
Foreign Interests
The Central Bank issued bonds worth N788.72 billion on the primary market
for Federal Government bonds. This is a 15.8% decline in debt issued in the
preceding year amid the redemption of the 5-year, 4% FGN APR 2015 bonds
issued in April 2010. All the issued bonds were re-openings except for the 5-
year, 15.54% FEB 2020 debt which was first issued in April 2015. The bonds
offered recorded a total subscription of N1.75 trillion, an over subscription of
122% in total.
FGN Bond Amount
Allotted
Amount Subscribed %Subscription
5-Year, 4.00 23-APR-2015 - -
5-Year, 15.10 27-APR-2017 58,000 116,750 101.29
5-Year, 15.54 13-FEB-2020
288,000.00 663,700.00
130.45
10-Year, 14.20 14-MAR-2024
225,220.00 529,135.00
134.94
12-Year 18-JUL-2034
217,500.00 442,386.00
103.40
788,720.00 1,751,971.00
122.13
Source: Debt Management Office, Cowry Research

State Government Bond Market Remained Robust…
Debt issued by sub-national entities this year increased by 190% to N54.13
billion as against N18.68 billion in the previous year. The bonds were issued by
Oyo, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Cross-river state and Zamfara state governments.
The details can be found in the table below:
State Govt Bond Issue Date Coupon Outstanding
Value
(N’Bn)
Maturity
Date
7-Year, 16.50 OYO 16-FEB-2022 17-Feb-15 16.50 4.61 16-Feb-22
7-Year, 16.50 BENUE 27-FEB-2022 27-Feb-15 16.50 4.75 27-Feb-22
7-Year, 17.50 PLATEAU 30-MAR-2022 30-Mar-15 17.50 27.10 30-Mar-22
7-Year, 17.00 KOGI II 31-MAR-2022 01-Apr-15 17.00 3.00 31-Mar-22
7-Year, 17.00 CROSS RIVER 27-MAY-2022 27-May-15 17.00 7.68 27-May-
22
7-Year, 17.00 ZAMFARA 19-MAY-2022 19-May-15 17.00 7.00 19-May-
22
Total 54.13
As at December 2015, the total value of outstanding sub-national bonds stood
at N474.72 billion, a marginal 0.78% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile
against the backdrop of steep decline in revenue, bank loans to states were
authorised for restructuring into Federal Government bonds. Twenty three states
participated in this process in two phases; eleven states were involved in the first
phase and the sum of N322.788 billion was converted into 20-year Federal
Government bonds effective August 17, 2015. Twelve states participated in the
second phase with loans to the tune of N252.728 billion were restructured. The
total restructured amount for the twenty three states amounted to N575.516
billion.

Corporate Bonds
The bond market remained a veritable source of funding for corporate entities as
new debt issued by corporate entities were worth N47.94 billion, although, a
59.6% decline (from N76.54 billion) with respect to new issues in 2014. The
corporate entities that raised fund from the bond market include Fidelity Bank,
Transcorp and the Nigerian Mortgage Refinancing Company.
Corporate Naira Bonds Issue Date Coupon
Outstanding
Value(N’Bn)
Maturity
Date
16.48 FIDELITY 13-MAY-2022 13-May-15 16.48 30.00 13-May-22
16.00 TRANSCORP 26-OCT-2022 26-Oct-15 16.00 10.00 26-Oct-22
14.90 NMRC 29-JUL-2030 29-Jul-15 14.90 7.94 29-Jul-30
Total 47.94
The face value of total debt issued by corporate entities jumped by 307% to
N507.55 billion. Local Corporates have shied away from the international debt
market as the face value for corporate Eurobonds fell by 23.3% to USD3.65
billion. No corporate Eurobond was issued in 2015 given that about USD1.8
billion was raised via the international market in 2014.
The OTC Bond Market Activities Remained Strong…
FGN bonds proved investor favorite as appetite for local debt remained strong
amid phased removal of Nigerian bonds from the JP Morgan GBI-Emerging

Markets Index (included in October 2012) and the Barclays Capitals’ Emerging
Markets- Local Currency Bond Index (included in March 2013). Tracked indices
suggest robust demand as investors sought alternatives to the bearish
performance of the equities market. As at December 15, 2015, the 20-year,
10.00% FGN JUL 2030 bond advanced by N29.79 (yield fell to 10.95% from
14.75%). The 10-year, 16.39% FGN JAN 2022 paper gained N17.89 (yield fell
to 10.84% from 15.25%); the 7-year, 16.00% FGN JUN 2019 note strengthened
by N14.59 (yield decreased to 9.83% from 15.27%); the 5-year 15.10% FGN
APR 2017 bond rose by N8.34 (yield slid to 7.85% from 15.17%) while the 3-
year, 13.05% FGN AUG 2016 bond jumped by N6.65 (yield slumped to 5.96%
from 13.45%).
On the international debt market, amid steady declines in crude-oil prices as well
as external reserves, investors sold off their holdings of FGN dollar denominated
debt. The 6.75% FGN JAN 2021 note lost USD 9.29 (yield increased to 8.32%
from 6.12%) while the 5.13% FGN JUL 2018 debt decreased by USD 3.86 (yield
rose to 6.81% from 5.02%). Similarly, the 6.38% FGN JUL 2023 bond fell by
USD 10.49 (yield increased to 8.44% from 6.48%).

Bond Summary
The Federal government still remains the largest borrower on the local market,
while it has also provided the opportunity to restructure short-term loans into
long term debt for state governments.
FGN Bonds ,
5,936
State bonds , 465
Corp Bonds , 508
Agency Bond, 2
Sukuk, 10
Supranational
Bond, 25
Face Values of Local Outstanding Bonds in 2015 (N Billion)

Equities Market ReviewEquities Market ReviewEquities Market ReviewEquities Market Review
In the year 2015, the Nigerian bourse lost 17.35% Year-on-Year compared to
the 47% return delivered in FY 2014 as the best performing equities market in
Africa. Despite the initial enthusiasm that ushered in the new political
dispensation, the NSE All Share Index declined by 17.35% to 28,642.25 points
while market capitalization fell to N9.85 trillion, a 14.24% drop. The precipitous
decline in oil prices coupled with capital restrictions as a policy response by the
apex bank, triggered massive outflows of foreign capital.
mparative Performances FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2013 FY 2012
NSE All Share Index (%) (17.35) 2.79 47.19 35.45
Market Capitalisation (%) (14.24) 6.06 47.38 37.38
Source: Nigerian Stock Exchange, Cowry Research

Source: Nigerian Stock Exchange; Cowry Research
Decline in Investments Reflecting Political Realities…
Following the postponement of the general elections from 14 February 2015 to
28 March 2015, the negative performance of equities market performance in the
first quarter was reflected by month-on-month increase in Foreign Portfolio
Investment (FPI) outflows by 59.73% to N81.60 billion in February while retail
investors participation in the local bourse remained low-key – foreign portfolio
investments accounted for 72.1% of total investments in February. With
increased domestic participation which rose to 44.27% of investments (from
27.39% in the previous month), as well as a steep 35.78% decline in FPI
outflows, the market began a steady and consistent rise.
Following successful conduct of the elections, the equities market rallied- the
NSE All Share Index reached a year high of 35,728.12 points while market
capitalization went past the N12 trillion mark on April 2, 2015. This was due to a
significant rise in domestic participation coupled with a rebound in post election
FPI inflows. Domestic investment increased by 26.33% to N102.91 billion which
8,000.00
8,500.00
9,000.00
9,500.00
10,000.00
10,500.00
11,000.00
11,500.00
12,000.00
12,500.00
26,000.00
29,000.00
32,000.00
35,000.00
BillionNaira
2016 Local Bourse Performance
Market Capitalization (Bn N) NSE ASI

formed about half of the total transactions in the bourse (49.75%), while FPI
inflows rose by 8%.
As the incoming government failed to clearly articulate its policy direction,
investors adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach as seen in the weak domestic
transactions in June and a slight rise in FPI inflows. However, poor half-year
earnings result aggravated sell-offs in Q3 2015. Exchange rate losses, high input
costs and increased costs of lending were reasons for most of the disappointing
results. Furthermore, in response to the sharp fall in crude-oil prices, the apex
bank instituted strict capital controls aimed at managing depleting reserves
rather than devaluing the Naira. This action has led to massive sell-offs in the
equities markets as ‘hot money’ left the financial system in vast sums as foreign
participation in the market declined while domestic investment switched to fixed
income securities.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Foreign Portfolio Investments in 2015 (N billion)
FPI inflows FPI Outflows Domestic Spending

Sub Indexes FY 2015 Performance (%age)
DEC 2015 DEC 2014
NSE-30 (17.63) (18.03)
NSE BANKING (23.59) (21.53)
NSE INSURANCE (4.70) (2.11)
CONSUMER GOODS (17.41) (17.88)
NSE OIL/GAS (6.20) 11.84
NSE IND 1.27 (21.63)
The underwhelming performance of the Nigerian Bourse is duly reflected in the
sub-indices given that most sectored gauges declined. The NSE Banking Index
slid by 23.59% followed by the NSE Consumer Goods Index which declined by
17.41%. The NSE 30, the sample market basket of a diversified portfolio,
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Equities Investments in 2015 (N billions)
foreign transactions domestic transactions

declined by 17.63%, however, the only bright spot was the NSE Industrial Index,
which rose by a marginal 1.27%.
Investment Levels and Activities
FY 2015 FY 2014 % Change
Total Deals 1,034,280 1,195,639 (13.50)
Total Volume 104,627,785,996 101,604,015,590 2.98
Total Value 1,079,221,079,245 1,322,225,732,815.06 (18.38)
No of Trading Days 247 250 (1.20)
Average Deals 3,859 4,782 (19.30)
Average Volume 390,402,187 432,437,542 (9.72)
Average Value 4,026,944,326 4,111,651,216.86 (2.06)
There was a general decline in investment activity at the Nigerian bourse in year
under review with respect to the previous year. Total deals and Naira
transactions declined respectively by 13.50% and 18.38% respectively, however
traded volumes rose by 2.98% to 104.63 billion. Financial services stocks
remained investors’ favourite as about half of Naira votes were spent on financial
services equities.

Corporate Actions on the Bourse…
Company New Listings/Delisting Supplementary Listings Date
Evans Medical
Plc
Rights: 486,472,800 ordinary
shares of 50k each at N2.50 per
share
09-Jan-15
Transcorp
Hotels Plc
7,600,403,900 ordinary shares
of 50k each at N10.00
15-Jan-15
Union Dicon
Salt Plc
Special Placement: 41,000,000
ordinary shares of 50k each
15-Jan-15
Mansard
Insurance Plc
Share Option: 500,000,000
15-Jan-15
Cappa &
D’alberto Plc
Voluntary delisting 15-Jan-15
Fin Serv
63%
Conglomerates
4%
Consumer
Goods
20%
oil/gas
12%
others
1%
Naira Votes by Sector

Sterling Bank
Plc
Special Placement:
7,197,604,531 ordinary shares of
50k each
06-Feb-15
Lafarge Africa
Plc
Consolidation of Lafarge Africa’s
Assets: 1,402,575,984 shares
27-Mar-15
Forte Oil Plc
Bonus Shares: 217,080,184
added
02-Apr-15
Nigerian
Breweries Plc
Allotment of shares to minority
members of Consolidated
Breweries in the Nigerian
Breweries merger: 366,396,456
shares
02-Apr-15
AIICO
Insurance Plc
Share Restructuring: Cancellation
of 1,870,000,000 ordinary shares
Nigerian Breweries merger:
366,396,456 shares
02-Apr-15
Glaxo-
Smithkline Plc
Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each
added
22-May-15
NAHCO
Aviance Plc
Bonus Issue: 147,656,250
22-May-15
VitaFoam Plc
added
22-May-15
Skye Bank Plc
Bonus Issue: 660,966,734
22-May-15
PharmaDeko
Plc
Rights Issue: 116,819,694
at N1.85 per share
22-May-15
Champion
Breweries Plc
Special Placement: 629,496,464
22-May-15
PharmaDeko
Plc
Special Placement: 482,754
03-Jun-15
International
Breweries Plc
19-Jun-15
McNichols
Consolidated
Plc
Conversion of Preference Shares
to Ordinary Shares: 16,114,665
27-Jun-15
ETI
1.250m OS of USD0.025 each at
N15.47 per share
16-Jul-15
UBA Plc
Rights Issue: 3,298,138,756 OS
of 50K at N3.50
24-Jul-15
Academy
Press Plc
Scrip Issue: 1 for 5, 100,800,000
units added.
3-Aug-15
Access
Bank Plc
Rights Issue: 6,045,052,723
ordinary shares of 50K (1 for 3) 28-Aug-15

Seplat
Petroleum
Ordinary shares of 10,134,248 units
which arose from a Long-Term
Incentive Scheme.
5-Nov-15
Standard
Alliance
Insurance
Plc
Convertible Preference Shares:
3,500,000,000 shares of 50K
each
27-Nov-15
Mergers and Acquisitions in 2015.
The following transactions were executed in the year 2015.
Mansard Insurance acquired 60% of Penman Pensions Limited. The
acquisition extended its subsidiaries to four (4), having already made
significant inroads into Asset Management, Health Insurance and
Property segments through its wholly owned subsidiaries (Mansard
Investments Limited and Mansard Health Limited) as well as its majority
holding in the property joint ventures, APD Ltd.
Oando Plc entered into a definitive agreement with HV Investments II
B.V., a joint venture owned by a fund advised by Helios Investment
Partners and The Vitol Group, to acquire 51% of the voting rights and
60% of the economic rights in Oando’s downstream businesses, for
USD461.3 million, which will be funded by a cash consideration of
USD276 million from HVI and USD184.5 million in preference shares
issued to Oando Plc. The Oando downstream businesses primarily consist
of: Oando Marketing Plc, Oando Supply & Trading Limited, Oando

Trading Limited (Bermuda), Apapa SPM Limited and Ebony Oil & Gas
Limited.
Similarly the Nigerian Cement Holdings B.V. (NCH), a 50% affiliate of
Large Africa Plc completed the acquisition of the second and final
tranche of 15% of equity interest of Flour Mills of Nigeria Cement
Industries in UNICEM, bringing their ownership to 100% of UNICEM and
consequently Lafarge Africa Plc now owns 50% of the equity of
UNICEM.
Market Developments in 2015
NSE Introduces Pension Index
The Nigerian Stock Exchange introduced the Pension Index. The Index values,
which provided data from 2013 with December 31, 2012 as base year was
exposed to the investing public on Thursday, July 2, 2015. The creation of the
NSE Pension Index is expected to encourage the development of other products
such as Exchange Traded Products (ETP’s) and Index Futures. Also, the Index,
provide a tracking mechanism for PFAs, CPFA and others that follow the
PENCOM guidelines. It can act as a benchmark for measuring performance and
reporting performance to RSA Holders.

Top 20 Gainers in FY 2015
Listed Companies TICKER
Price as @
31 DEC 2015
Price as @
31 Dec 2014
%
Change
Unity Bank Plc UNITYBNK 0.50 1.12 124.00
Beta Glass Company Plc BETAGLAS 27.78 53.45 92.40
Goldlink Insurance Plc GOLDINSURE 0.53 0.93 75.47
Forte Oil Plc FO 227.90 330.00 44.80
University Press Plc UPL 4.22 6.00 42.18
Law Union and Rock Insurance PLC LAWUNION 0.50 0.71 42.00
Nigerian Police Force Microfinance
Bank Plc
NPFMCRFBK 0.80 1.10 37.50
Presco Nigeria Plc PRESCO 24.50 33.00 34.69
Vitafoam Plc VITAFOAM 4.03 5.41 34.24
Airline Services and Logistic Plc AIRSERVICE 1.70 2.21 30.00
Cutix Plc CUTIX 1.30 1.66 27.69
Unilever Nigeria Plc UNILEVER 35.80 43.25 20.81
Lafarge Africa Plc WAPCO 80.50 96.80 20.25
The Okomu Oil-Palm Company OKOMUOIL 25.35 30.30 19.53
NASCON Allied Industries Plc NASCON 6.22 7.15 14.95
Ashaka Cement Plc ASHAKACEM 21.90 25.00 14.16
Neimeth Pharmaceuticals Plc NEIMETH 0.78 0.89 14.10
Custodian and Allied Insurance CUSTODYINS 3.62 4.10 13.26
AIICO Insurance Plc AIICO 0.81 0.91 12.35
Berger Paints Plc BERGER 9.00 10.00 11.11

Bottom 20 losers in FY 2015
Listed Companies TICKER
Price as @
31 DEC 2015
Price as @
31 Dec 2014
% Change
Evans Medical Plc EVANSMED 2.28 0.50 (78.07)
Tiger Branded Consumer Goods Plc TIGERBRANDS 4.55 1.13 (75.16)
Oando Plc OANDO 16.11 5.90 (63.38)
Diamond Bank Plc DIAMONDBNK 5.58 2.30 (58.78)
Cadbury Nigeria Plc CADBURY 40.00 17.15 (57.13)
Academy Press Plc ACADEMY 1.18 0.55 (53.39)
Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc TRANSCORP 3.25 1.52 (53.23)
AG Leventis Nigeria Plc AGLEVENT 1.31 0.62 (52.67)
Northern Nigeria Flour Mills Plc NNFM 18.05 8.55 (52.63)
Champion Breweries Plc CHAMPION 6.98 3.37 (51.72)
Learn Africa Plc LEARNAFRCA 1.35 0.71 (47.41)
Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc FLOURMILL 39.20 20.80 (46.94)
The Seplat Development Company Plc SEPLAT 371.01 203.00 (45.28)
FBN Holdings Plc FBNH 8.80 5.13 (41.70)
Livestock Feeds Plc LIVESTOCK 2.28 1.33 (41.67)
Honeywell Flour Mills Plc HONYFLOUR 3.46 2.05 (40.75)
Skye Bank Plc SKYEBANK 2.66 1.58 (40.60)
May and Baker Nig. Plc MAYBAKER 1.58 0.96 (39.24)
UAC of Nigeria Plc UACN 34.00 20.75 (38.97)
Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc STANBIC 27.00 16.53 (38.78)

2015 Dividends and Bonuses
Company Dividend Bonus
Closure of
Register
AGM Date
Payment
Date
Nigerian
Breweries Plc
N3.50 Nil
5th
- 11th
March 2015
13th
May 2015 14th
May 2015
Forte Oil Plc N2.50 1 for 5
1st
– 7th
April
2015
15th
April
2015
22nd
April
2015
Nestle
Nigeria
N17.50 Nil
27th
April
2015
11th
May 2015 12th
May 2015
Greif Nigeria
Plc
60 kobo Nil
25th
- 27th
March 2015
28th
April
2015
5th
May 2015
Guaranty
Bank Plc
N1.50 (final) Nil
17th
March
2015
31st
March
2015
31st
March
2015
Zenith Bank
Plc
N1.75 Nil
16th
- 20th
March 2015
26th
March
2015
27th
March
2015
Neimeth Nil Nil
18th
– 20th
March 2015
24th
March
2015
N/A
Africa
Prudential
Registrars
35 kobo Nil
18th
– 20th
March 2015
8th
April 2015
10th
April
2015
United
Capital Plc
20 kobo Nil
23rd
– 27th
March 2015
16th
April
2015
20th
April
2015
Lafarge
Africa Plc
N3.60 Nil
27th
April – 1st
May 2015
22nd
May
2015
25th
May 2015
Access Bank
35 kobo
(final)
Nil
24th
April
2015
7th
May 2015 7th
May 2015
Transcorp
Hotels
37 kobo Nil
30th
March
2015
15th
April
2015
17th
April
2015
PZ Cussons
Nigeria
(interim)
20 kobo Nil
30th
March
2015
N/A 7th
April 2015
FCMB Group
Plc
25 kobo Nil
30th
March
2015
23rd
April
2015
24th
April
2015
Julius Berger
Nigeria Plc
N2.70 Nil 1st
June 2015
17th
June
2015
18th
June
2015
Mobil Oil Plc N6.60 Nil
29th
April
2015
28th
May 2015 4th
June 2015
Livestock
Feeds Plc
10 kobo Nil 28th
May 2015
17th
June
2015
18th
June
2015
Sterling Bank
Plc
6 kobo Nil
13th
April
2015
30th
April
2015
30th
April
2015
United Bank
for Africa Plc
10 kobo Nil
7th
– 9th
April
2015
24th
April
2015
27th
April
2015
Unilever 10 kobo Nil
13th
April
2015
12th
May 2015 15th
May 2015

NAHCO 20 kobo 1 for 10
18th
– 22nd
May
2015
11th
June
2015
11th
June
2015
Fidson 15 kobo Nil
Dangote
Cement
N6.00 Nil
20th
April
2015
29th
April
2015
30th
April
2015
Total Oil
Nigeria
N9.00 Nil
20th
April
2015
10th
June
2015
12th
June
2015
Trans-
Nationwide
Express
10 kobo Nil 13th
July 2015 23rd
July 2015
7th
August
2015
McNichols 4 kobo 1 for 10 17th
July 2015 23rd
July 2015 27th
July 2015
Cadbury 65 kobo Nil
11th
– 15th
May
2015
10th
June
2015
11th
June
2015
Infinity Trust
Mortgage
Bank
3 kobo Nil
17th
April
2015
14th
May 2015 15th
May 2015
Glaxo
SmithKline
75 kobo 1 for 4 14th
May 2015
11th
June
2015
12th
June
2015
Caverton 10 kobo Nil
23rd
April
2015
6th
May 2015 6th
May 2015
Berger Paints 75 kobo Nil
15th
– 17th
June 2015
21st
July 2015 23rd
July 2015
Fidelity Bank 18 kobo Nil
20th
– 24th
April 2015
7th
May 2015 7th
May 2015
Custodian
and Allied
12 kobo Nil
13th
– 17th
April 2015
13th
May 2015 14th
May 2015
Diamond
Bank
10 kobo Nil
16th
– 17th
April 2015
30th
April
2015
4th
May 2015
CAP 85 kobo Nil
1st
– 5th
June
2015
18th
June
2015
19th
June
2015
MRS Oil 88 kobo Nil
13th
– 17th
July
2015
5th
August
2015
6th
August
2015
CCNN 35 kobo Nil
20th
– 24th
July
2015
13th
August
2015
18th
August
2015
Okomu 25 kobo Nil
18th
– 22nd
May
2015
24th
June
2015
29th
June
2015
Learn Africa 12 kobo Nil
11th
– 15th
May
2015
4th
June 2015 5th
June 2015
Ashaka
Cement
45 kobo Nil
21st
April
2015
5th
May 2015 6th
May 2015
Beta Glass 62 kobo Nil
15th
June
2015
9th
July 2015 10th
July 2015
BOC Gases 10 kobo Nil 15th
May 2015
11th
June
2015
15th
June
2015
Stanbic IBTC
Holdings
15 kobo Nil
14th
April
2015
3rd
June 2015 5th
June 2015

Chams 2 kobo Nil
20th
April
2015
29th
April
2015
11th
May 2015
UACN 175 kobo Nil
6th
– 10th
July
2015
23rd
September
2015
24th
September
2015
FBN
Holdings
10 kobo 1 for 10 4th
May 2015 21st
May 2015 25th
May 2015
Transcorp 6 kobo Nil
22nd
April
2015
8th
May 2015 11th
May 2015
UACN Prop.
Development
50 kobo Nil
10th
– 14th
August 2015
1st
September
2015
2nd
September
2015
Seplat
Petroleum
$0.09
dollar/naira
exchange
rate as at 21
May 2015
Nil
22nd
May
2015
2nd
June 2015
10th
June
2015
May & Baker 5 kobo Nil
20th
– 24th
April 2015
28th
May 2015 8th
June 2015
Aluminium
Extrusion
8.5 kobo Nil
26th
June –
10th
July
10th
July 2015 13th
July 2015
Dangote
Sugar
40 kobo Nil
28th
– 30th
April 2015
22nd
May
2015
22nd
May
2015 (25th
May 2015 for
those
without e-
mandate)
ETI Nil 1 for 15 22nd
July 2015
19th
June
2015
N/A
Cornerstone
Insurance
2 kobo Nil
6th
– 10th
July
2015
21st
July 2015 25th
July 2015
Vitafoam 30 kobo 1 for 5
20th
– 22nd
May
2015
4th
June 2015 9th
June 2015
Continental
Reinsurance
11 kobo Nil
20th
– 24th
July
2015
30th
July 2015 31st
July 2015
NPF
Microfinance
Bank
15 kobo Nil
1st
– 5th
June
2015
23rd
July 2015 24th
July 2015
Smart
Products
25 kobo Nil
3rd
– 10th
July
2015
30th
July 2015
11th
August
2015
eTranzact
International
5 kobo Nil
22nd
– 26th
June 2015
23rd
July 2015
6th
August
2015
National Salt 50 kobo Nil
25th
– 26th
May
2015
10th
June
2015
12th
June
2015
Skye Bank Nil 1 for 20 21st
May 2015 8th
June 2015 N/A
International
Breweries
25 kobo Nil
20th
– 25th
July
2015
10th
August
2015
11th
August
2015

Airline
Services &
Logistics
15 kobo Nil
15th
– 19th
June 2015
2nd
July 2015 3rd
July 2015
C & I Leasing 8 kobo Nil
15th
– 19th
June 2015
25th
June
2015
7th
July 2015
Presco 100 kobo Nil
6th
– 8th
July
2015
22nd
July 2015 27th
July 2015
Niger
Insurance
3.5 kobo Nil
13th
– 17th
July
2015
22nd
July 2015 29th
July 2015
NEM
Insurance
6 kobo Nil
6th
– 10th
July
2015
29th
July 2015 31st
July 2015
Academy
Press
Nil 1 for 5
3rd
– 7th
August 2015
17th
September
2015
N/A
Seven Up
Bottling Co.
275 kobo Nil
13th
– 17th
July
2015
22nd
September
2015
29th
September
2015
Stanbic IBTC
(Interim)
90 kobo Nil 31st
July 2015
6th
August
2015 (EGM)
28th
August
2015
Royal
Exchange
2 kobo Nil
13th
– 17th
July
2015
30th
July 2015
3rd
August
2015
Courteville
(Interim)
4 kobo Nil
10th
August
2015
N/A
31st
August
2015
Honeywell
Flour Mills
5 kobo Nil
14th
– 18th
September
2015
29th
September
2015
30th
September
2015
Red Star
Express
35 kobo Nil
5th
– 7th
August 2015
3rd
September
2015
14th
September
2015
Africa
Prudential
(Interim)
17 kobo Nil
19th
– 24th
August 2015
N/A
31st
August
2015
Northern
Nigeria Flour
Mills
30 kobo Nil
10th
- 14th
August 2015
8th
September
2015
14th
September
2015
Consolidated
Hallmark
(Interim)
2 kobo Nil
10th
– 14th
August 2015
N/A
27st
August
2015
Flour Mills of
Nigeria
210 kobo Nil
10th
– 14th
August 2015
9th
September
2015
14th
September
2015
Triple Gee 4 kobo Nil
25th
– 30th
September
2015
15th
October
2015
19th
October
2015
AXA Mansard
(Interim)
3 kobo Nil
14th
October
2015
N/A
26th
October
2015

Custodian &
Allied
(Interim)
6 kobo Nil
17th
– 21st
August 2015
N/A
15th
September
2015
SCOA Nigeria 7.5 kobo Nil
25th
– 28th
August 2015
17th
September
2015
24th
September
2015
Cutix 12 kobo Nil
19th
– 23rd
October
2015
30th
October
2015
19th
November
2015
Zenith Bank
(Interim)
25 kobo Nil
24th
August
2015
N/A
28th
August
2015
Guaranty
Trust Bank
(Interim)
25 kobo Nil
8th
September
2015
N/A
21st
September
2015
Access Bank
(Interim)
25 kobo Nil
3rd
September
2015
N/A
10th
September
2015
University
Press
20 kobo Nil
1st
- 4th
September
2015
30th
September
2015
2nd
October
2015
PZ Cussons 61 kobo Nil
14th
– 18th
September
2015
29th
September
2015
30th
September
2015
Nigerian
Enamelware
45 Kobo Nil
7th
– 11th
September
2015
29th
September
2015
2nd
October
2015
United Bank
for Africa
(Interim)
20 Kobo Nil
10th
– 11th
September
2015
N/A
16th
September
2015
Guinness
Nigeria
320 Kobo Nil
12th
October
2015
26th
November
2015
27th
November
2015
Conoil 100 Kobo Nil
28th
Sept – 2nd
Oct 2015
23rd
October
2015
2nd
November
2015

Political ReviewPolitical ReviewPolitical ReviewPolitical Review
In the period under review, major political highlights include the successful
transition to a new government, the fight against insurgency and corruption, and
political appointments into public offices as the new administration settles into
power. Indeed, the year 2015 was politically charged with a lot of political
intrigues and manoeuvres. Furthermore, based on its electoral campaign
promises, the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration clearly has, as its
core mandate, improving the country’s fortunes in terms of social security, anti-
corruption crusade and revamping a weakened economy.
A Successful Interparty Transition…
The shift in Nigeria’s political landscape was largely peaceful, albeit, not without
tremors. Nigeria’s general elections of March 28 2015, was viewed as largely
peaceful despite limited incidents of election violence in some parts of the
country. The heavy deployment of security throughout the country helped
forestall violence. Following the peaceful conduct of the general elections,
Retired General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was
elected as Nigeria’s President having pulled 15.42 million votes to defeat
incumbent President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) who garnered 12.85 million votes. In addition, President Muhammadu
Buhari won in 21 states and received 25% of the total votes cast in 26 states and
the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) while Jonathan won in 15 states and the FCT
and received 25% of the votes in 25 states and the FCT. However, in a
statesman-like manner uncommon of African leaders, President Jonathan
congratulated the General even ahead of the announcement of the Final results.

APC wins more territories Gubernatorial Elections
The April 11 gubernatorial elections were conducted in a relatively peaceful
atmosphere, howbeit, with some flash points of violence in the Rivers and Akwa
Ibom States. In line with our expectations, the APC won the gubernatorial
election in most states (nineteen out of twenty nine states where election was
conducted) having recorded victory in almost all the South West, all North East
and North West states, while most South South and South East states remained
with the ruling PDP. Elections in two states, Imo and Abia, were inconclusive
while the Taraba State elections were cancelled – all bordering on alleged high
incidence of election malpractices.
National Assembly Leadership Politics…
Following APC’s dominance of the political space in both the Presidency and
Federal House of Assembly, the political equation even within the Party was
reset in the outcome of the elections into leadership positions in the National
Assembly. The emergence of Senator Bukola Saraki of the APC as Senate
President and Honourable Yakubu Dogara as Speaker of the House of
Representatives was mainly due to the support of Senators from the opposition
PDP. Consequently, PDP seemed to have gotten its grove back drawing from the
critical role it played in the emergence of leadership of the National Assembly.
Their support for the victors, themselves former members of PDP, paved the way
for Senator Ike Ekweremadu’s re-emergence as Deputy Senate President. It will
be recalled that the APC was formed from the coalition between several political
parties which include: Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive
Change, All Nigeria Peoples Party, a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance

and much later, the New Peoples Democratic Party (made up of defecting PDP
governors).
Rift between APC Senate Caucuses and Leadership Widened…
APC’s internal crises widened and dissatisfaction within the party played out
following the nominations of principal officers at the Senate by the Party’s
Senate caucuses against the wishes of the APC leadership. On the day of the
leadership nominations, Senate President, Bukola Saraki, read the nomination
letters of the various caucuses which endorsed Senator Ali Ndume (North-East)
as the Majority Leader, Senator Bala Ibn Na’Allah (North-West) as the Deputy
Majority Leader and Senator Francis Alimikhena (South-South) as Deputy Chief
Whip. However, the position of Chief Whip allotted to the South-West caucus
remained vacant as the Senate President refused to entertain the nomination
letter from APC’s national leader, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, to which the
South-West caucus deferred. It was quite obvious that efforts at mending fences
in the APC, caused by the rebalancing of the political equation within the Party,
was a tall order as the crises remained largely a dispute between vested interests.
In July, The Senate also announced Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, representing
Taraba Central as the Deputy Minority Leader just as it named senators Philip
Aduda, representing the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, and Biodun Olujimi,
representing Ekiti South, as Minority Whip and Deputy Minority Whip
respectively.

Relative Calm Returns to Lower Chamber…
In July, the long drawn squabble within the lower arm of the National Assembly
occurring side by side with that of the Senate ameliorated as Hon Femi
Gbajabiamila emerged as the minority leader despite initial strong oppositions.
The peace pact was brokered by President Muhammadu Buhari who met with
the Representatives on July 27. Speaker Dogara also announced the names of
other principal officers as follows: Buba Jibrin (North-Central) as the deputy
house leader, Alhassan Ado Doguwa (North-West) as the chief whip, and Pally
Iriase (South-South) deputy chief whip. For the minority party, Leo Ogor
(South-South) emerged as the minority leader; Chukwuma Onyema (South-East)
as the deputy minority leader; Yakubu Umar Barde (North-West) as the minority
whip; and Binta Bello (North-East) as the deputy minority whip. Similarly, the
Senate, named immediate past governor of Akwa Ibom State and Senator
representing Akwa Ibom North West, Godswill Akpabio as the Minority Leader.
Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki Battles for Political Life…
The turf battle within the All Progressives Congress (APC) resumed in September
as forces opposed to the emergence of Dr. Bukola Saraki as Senate President
ensured that he was docked by the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) on charges
of false asset declaration. The embattled Senator was ordered to appear before
the CCT on a 13-count criminal charge that bordered on corruption, false
declaration of assets, and illegal operation of a foreign bank account while in
office as former governor of Kwara State. Dr. Saraki’s current travails is coming
on the heels of the arrest and investigation of his wife, Oluwatoyin Saraki, by the
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on fraud related charges

shortly after he emerged as Senate President. However, Dr. Saraki pleaded “not
guilty” to the charges and was released on bail with commencement of his trial
scheduled for October 21, 2015. Eventually, the embattled Senator breathed a
sigh of relief as the Supreme Court ordered the suspension of his trial at the
Code of Conduct Tribunal where he faces a 13-count corruption charge, pending
the conclusion of an appeal the Senator brought before the highest court.
National Assembly Gets Standing Committees
In November, Senate President, Bukola Saraki named sixty-five standing
committees of the Senate – eight more than his predecessor, Senator David
Mark. The All Progressives Congress (APC) Senators got the majority forty-one
chairmanship positions while the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
Senators got twenty-four chairmanship slots in a Senate that comprises sixty
APC Senators and forty-nine PDP Senators. Thus, in the current arrangement,
the ruling party got more than proportionate number of chairmanship positions
than the opposition party. Howbeit, against the backdrop of internal squabbles
in the ruling party as well as unbroken ties across party lines, it appeared as
though opposition was handed a good number of key positions. Same can be
said of the House of Representatives which also named its committee chairmen
very recently.
President Buhari Swears in New Ministers to Drive His Agenda…
In November, President Muhammadu Buhari, after almost 6 months of delay,
finally swore in his new cabinet of ministers into office and reduced the number

of federal ministries to twenty five from thirty six. The President had earlier
appointed eighteen new permanent secretaries, some of whom came from the
private sector, while retiring seventeen others. Members of his substantive
cabinet of ministers and their respective portfolios include: Senator Udoma Udo
Udoma (Budget and National Planning), Babatunde Fashola (Power, Works and
Housing), Dr. Okechukwu Enelamah (Trade, Industry and Investment), Kemi
Adeosun (Finance); Ibe Kachikwu (Petroleum Resources), Kayode Fayemi
(Mining); and Audu Ogbeh (Agriculture and Rural Development). Others include:
Rotimi Amaechi (Transportation), Chris Ngige (Labour and Employment), Lai
Mohammed (Information), Muhammadu Bello (Federal Capital Territory), Adamu
Adamu (Education), Abubakar Malami (Justice), Amina Mohammed
(Environment), Adbulrahman Dambazau (Interior), Suleiman Adamu (Water
Resources), Solomon Dalong (Youth and Sports), Usani Uguru (Niger Delta),
Osagie Ehanire (Health), Aisha Alhassan (Women Affairs), Adebay Shittu
(Communication), Geoffrey Onyema (Foreign Affairs), Ogbonaya Onu (Science
and Technology) and Dan Ali (Defence).
Nigeria’s War on Terror Assumes International Dimension
Nigeria’s war against terror assumed international dimension as Boko Haram’s
leader, Abubakar Shekau, allied with international terror group, Islamic State
group in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) with the hope to attract support from ISIS in its
own struggle to create an Islamic caliphate in Nigeria. This was part of its
response to the recapture of major towns in the North East, especially Bama,
Buni Yadi, etc by members of Nigerian armed forces and its allies – Cameroon,
Chad and Niger.

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