Reijo Sund. Workshop: Projecting population health and care needs using population survey and register data. 17.9.2018.

1. UEF // University of Eastern Finland
Reijo Sund
Workshop: Projecting population health and care needs
using population survey and register data
Helsinki, 17 September, 2018
Did the predictions come true?

2. UEF // University of Eastern Finland September
2018
2
Setting
– Popular way to predict the need for health services is to use
current age-specific incidence and prevalance figures with
population forecasts
– The aim in this study was to calculate the predictions using data
from 1980 and compare obtained predictions with actual observed
values
• Björkman M, Sund R, Tilvis R. 2006. Kävivätkö ennusteet toteen?
Suomen lääkärilehti 61(43): 4493-7.

3. UEF // University of Eastern Finland
•Population forecast from Statistics Finland for the years 1981-2020
based on statistics from 1980 and published in 1983 was used
– Included three forecasts of which the one fitting best with the true
population growth was selected
•Predictions were calculated for the number of patients in long term
care, for the number of people with certain diagnoses in hospital in the
final day of the year, and for the number of hip fractures
– 5-year age-bands were used
•Proportion of true observed value were from the predicted number
were used to illustrate differences
September
2018
3
Methods

4. UEF // University of Eastern Finland September
2018
4
Long-term care

5. UEF // University of Eastern Finland September
2018
5
Hip fractures

6. UEF // University of Eastern Finland September
2018
6
People in diagnosis groups

7. UEF // University of Eastern Finland
•Predictions were mostly significantly exceeding the observed numbers
•Hip fractures a special case
– Age-adjusted incidence was raising until 2000
•Population forecasts have a big role in predictions
•Assumption of constant age-specific incidences in time may not be
realistic
September
2018
7
Conclusions