Analysis of whether pattern in Africa

1. The Birmingham and
Peterborough PCSO Hot Spots
Experiments
Operation Savvy + Operation Style
Dr Barak Ariel
Neil Wain (PhD Cand.)
Cristobal Weinborn (PhD Cand.)
Sgt. Wendy Goodhill
Insp. Rob Hill
Prof Lawrence Sherman
6th International Conference
on Evidence-Based Policing

2. Background
• "Law of concentrations of crime at place”
– (Weisburd, Telep, Braga & Groff 2010:167; Sherman et al 1989)
• General deterrence (prevention) and rational choice theories
- (Sherman and Weisburd, 1995)
• 20 of 25 tests of hot spots policing interventions worldwide
reported noteworthy crime and disorder reductions
– (Braga, Papachristos & Hureau 2012)
• The benefits of increased officer time spent in the hot spot
plateau around 15 minutes
– (Koper, 1995; Telep , Mitchell & Weisburd, 2012)

3. Unanswered Questions in
Place-Based Police Initiatives

4. Context
• 4th and 5th Evidence-Based Policing Conferences
• Austerity crisis/opportunity
• Future of foot patrol / PCSOs
• Does hotspot policing work in the UK?

5. Overall Research Design
• Multisite randomised controlled trial
• Random assignment of all hotspots within 3 blocks of ‘heat’
• Intervention delivered by PCSOs only
• 3 X 15-minute patrols, Wed-Sat, 3-10PM, in treatment hotspots
• “business as usual” in control hotspots
• GPS locators on all front-line officers (radios)

6. Baseline Analyses - Temporal
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Birmingham South (12-month data)
Hourly Distribution of Crime
(n=57,070)
Peterborough (48-month data)
Hourly Distribution of Crime
(n= 127,299)

7. Incident Type
46,165
24,066
16,782%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Row & inconsid behaviour.
Suspicious circumstances
ASB - nuisance
Susp circs (inc veh's & prems)
Violence
Theft (not vehicle related)
Burglary
Criminal damage
Row/nuis - neighbours
Veh rel nuis/inapp veh use
Coll./illness/injury/trapped
ASB - personal
Malicious/nuis.…
Noise
Aban veh (not smv/obstruct)
ASB - environmental
Stolen motor vehicle
Theft from motor vehicle
ASB - pers. - standard risk
Bilking
Robbery
Arson
Sexual offence
Drugs
Other crime
Birmingham (n=57,070)
45.47%
7.43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ASB
CRIMINAL DAMAGE
VEHICLE CRIME
BURGLARY DWELLING
THEFT OTHER
THEFT FROM SHOPS AND…
BURGLARY OTHER BUILDING
ROBBERY AND THEFT…
MAKE OFF W/O PAYMENT
THEFT OF PEDAL CYCLE
THEFT DWELLING NOT…
ARSON
GO EQUIPPED/HANDLE
THEFT FROM AUTO…
THEFT MAIL BAG/POST…
THEFT DWELLING NOT…
Peterborough (n=127,299)

8. Directed Patrols
• PCSO’s are directed by the relevant Problem Solving
Sergeants based on local knowledge, intelligence and
dynamic risk assessment
• Each patrol area has a spreadsheet located in the Op Savvy
database on Corvus. These must be completed daily by the
allocated PCSO to show the number of visits to each
Hotspot, times and any intelligence/significant events
• Nil returns are also recorded
• These records help inform the briefing pack updates
(Problem Solving Sergeants are responsible for briefing
pack refresh each calendar month)

9. Tracking Officers
ARLS Data Analysis

10. How Data are Captured?
• Officers enter the geo-fenced area
• Email notification with every PING
• N emails = 683,069 over 135 days (23/11-06/04)
• Convert outlook emails into txt file into excel file
into SPSS

11. Hotspot as the Unit of ARLS Analysis

12. 227%
-3.00%
-26%
184%
152%
212%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
High Medium Low
Blocks
Birmingham: Percent Change - Total N of Visits
Experimental v. Control
PCs PCSOs

13. PCSOs as the Unit of ARLS Analysis
(or: tracking in the 21st century)

14. Unique Features
• 10 year Longitudinal analysis
• Non-crime outcomes (Quality of life measures)
• GPS locators on all front line officers in LPU
• 72 Hotspots defined as:
1. Minimum calls for service in a hotspot within 48 months = 60
2. Maximum hotspot radius = 150 meters
3. Buffer zone/catchment area = 50 meters
4. Minimum distance between hotspot boundaries = 250 meters
5. “calls for service” = street incidents, no shopping arcades / schools / hospitals /
leisure centre
Chief Superintendent
Andy Hebb

15. PCSO POSITIVE INTERVENTIONS 1
RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME…..
• Gladstone Hotspot – Drug deal intercepted – 2
Arrested
• Paston Hotspot – Gang related assault. Serious
injury averted – Suspects located. The stock of
the PCSO goes up on area and with regular
officers

16. PCSO POSITIVE INTERVENTIONS 2
• Welland Hotspot – Two seen stealing fuel from
cars – Arrested.
• Intelligence submissions are increased in hotspot
areas. This has enabled more focused long term
activity / problem solving policing
• Warm reception from the community….”
“Sir – This is fantastic. A member of the public offered
me a cuppa as thanks for making them feel safe”

17. Non-Crime Outcomes

18. Non-crime outcomes in Peterborough 1
Quality of Life (QOL) Hotspots
• Based on 12 months of data from Safer
Peterborough Partnership - 86 QOL hotspots
were identified
• The total number of events* = 11,351
____
(*) sanitation, council / estate concerns, needles found,
excessive noise, graffiti, etc.

19. Peterborough GPS data

20. 00:06:41
00:03:51
00:02:50
00:08:14
00:04:19 00:04:25
00:06:40
00:05:50
00:01:51
00:11:43
00:10:49
00:08:38
00:00:00
00:01:26
00:02:53
00:04:19
00:05:46
00:07:12
00:08:38
00:10:05
00:11:31
00:12:58
Hot hotspots Medium Hotspots Low Hotspots
Mean
minutes Minutes spent per visit - Peterborough
Control - PCs only
Treatment - PCs only
Control - PCSOs only
Treatment - PCSOs only

21. 01:04:18
00:29:25
00:30:48
00:55:45
00:33:37
00:18:36
00:16:32
00:09:53
00:03:30
00:42:46 00:43:54
00:26:30
00:00:00
00:07:12
00:14:24
00:21:36
00:28:48
00:36:00
00:43:12
00:50:24
00:57:36
01:04:48
01:12:00
Hot hotspots Medium Hotspots Low Hotspots
Mean
minutes Minutes spent per day - Peterborough
Control - PCs only
Treatment - PCs only
Control - PCSOs only
Treatment - PCSOs only

22. 15.4
9.2
9.9
12.7
21.1
8.1
0 5 10 15 20 25
Control
Experimental
Control
Experimental
Control
Experimental
Hot
hotspots
Medium
Hotspots
Low
Hotspots
mean n visits per hotspot
N visits of PCs only in Peterborough
Overall 22% more visits in Control Hotspots

23. 2.9
3.7
2.1
4.4
2.1
3.1
0 1 2 3 4 5
Control
Experimental
Control
Experimental
Control
Experimental
Hot
hotspots
Medium
Hotspots
Low
Hotspots
mean n visits per hotspot
N Visits of PCSOs Only in Peterborough –
Overall 71% more visits in Treatment Hotspots

24. Outcomes

25. A Reversed Effect in Birmingham South
Low level hotspots -
What happened?

26. Three hypotheses
• The “Suboptimal Dosage” hypothesis
• The “Crime Reporting Behaviour” hypothesis
• The “Oversized Hotspot” hypothesis

27. -800%
-600%
-400%
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
Low Level
Hotspots
Medium
Level
Hotspots
High Level
Hotspots
Birmingham ASB –
Percent Change Reporting
The Crime Reporting Hypothesis*
(*requires further investigation re source of call)
PCSO presence increases reporting in hotspots generally characterised with both low
crime and limited police patrol
-1000%
-500%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
Low Level
Hotspots
Medium Level
Hotspots
High Level
Hotspots
Birmingham Theft from Shop -
Percent Change Reporting