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Affective polarisation in political leaders' discourses
- 1. CRICOS No.00213J Affective polarisation in political leaders’ discourses: a comparison between Australia, Brazil, Denmark, and Peru Sebastian Svegaard, Tariq Choucair, Kate O’Connor Farfan, Axel Bruns sebastian.svegaard I tariq.choucair I katesusan.oconnorfarfan I a.bruns I @qut.edu.au
- 2. CRICOS No.00213J QUT acknowledges the Turrbal and Yugara, as the First Nations owners of the lands where QUT now stands. We pay respect to their Elders, lores, customs and creation spirits. We recognise that these lands have always been places of teaching, research and learning. QUT acknowledges the important role Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people play within the QUT community. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF TRADITIONAL OWNERS We recognise the traditional owners of the land on which we meet today, and pay our respects to them and their traditions of learning and research.
- 3. CRICOS No.00213J A tale of two smiles styles (of authenticity) Or is it…? Or is it…? Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 4. CRICOS No.00213J Our cast of characters Australia May 2022 Albanese Morrison Denmark November 2022 Ellemann-Jensen Frederiksen Brazil October 2022 Bolsonaro Lula Peru April 2021 Castillo Fujimori Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 5. CRICOS No.00213J Collecting • Cases chosen to cover spread of electoral systems, geography and parliamentary traditions (ie. presidential, multi-party, global south etc.) and for cultural understanding • Collections on Facebook using Crowdtangle and the Crowd Tool by Jane XueYing Tan • Top 30 most engaged with posts selected for each candidate • Coded with 34 emotions commonly used in Social Psychology (Cowen & Keltner, 2007) + 2 codes for affective polarisation • Double coding for candidates portrayed emotions and the desired audience response • Using team cultural expertise • Prevalence pulled into Excel -> Tableau Methods Coding Choosing Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 6. CRICOS No.00213J Range of (many) emotions Audiences’ desired emotions Audiences’ desired emotions in affectively polarising content Candidates’ portrayed emotions Candidates’ portrayed emotions in affectively polarising content
- 7. CRICOS No.00213J Candidates presented emotions Pride Sympathy Satisfaction Excitement Contempt Pride Anger Interest All posts Polarising
- 8. CRICOS No.00213J Example: Bolsonaro - Em 2018, antes de vencermos as eleições, o povo já conhecia parte daqueles que iriam compor o meu governo. Sabiam qual seria o perfil dos meus ministros e que todos seriam escolhidos com independência. Isso é fundamental para trabalhar pelo Brasil e não por interesses sombrios. - Já o candidato do crime organizado não pode anunciar ninguém porque já entregou tudo na mão de grupos e partidos políticos em troca de apoio. É por isso que ele é o candidato do sistema, porque quem é refém pode ser chantageado. Ou alguém acha que ele foi solto por caridade? - O que ele chama de frente pela democracia é, na verdade, a volta da falsa harmonia, aquela em que os companheiros roubam em paz enquanto você paga a conta. Não há compromisso com o povo quando já se está comprometido com outros interesses. Assim nasce a corrupção sistêmica! Codes candidate: contempt, disgust, pride, them/us Codes audience: anger, contempt, disgust, fear, sympathy Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 9. CRICOS No.00213J Example: Frederiksen Det er sjældent, jeg bruger profilen her til at kommentere på andre partiers politik. Men det her er alligevel for meget. Nye Borgerlige mener tilsyneladende, at man skal kunne fravælge medarbejdere i ældreplejen - også på baggrund af homoseksualitet, eller fordi de er jøder. Det er et forslag, som er ødelæggende for ethvert samfund. Også det danske. Sammenhængskraften ryger. Det er den helt forkerte vej at gå. I sidste uge var det en diskussion om, at man skal kunne afvise en hjemmehjælper, hvis vedkommende bærer tørklæde. Danmark skal ikke splittes, og vi mennesker skal ikke opdeles efter hverken det ene eller det andet. Medarbejdere skal vurderes på deres kvalifikationer. Intet andet. Codes candidate: anger, contempt, surprise, them/us Codes audience: admiration, anxiety, interest, disgust Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 10. CRICOS No.00213J Audience desired emotions Sympathy Admiration Nostalgia Interest Contempt Admiration Disgust Sympathy All posts Polarising
- 11. CRICOS No.00213J Example: Albanese Labor will legislate a National Anti-Corruption Commission by the end of 2022. Time’s up for the Morrison Government. Labor will get it done. Codes candidate: contempt, excitement, pride, them/us Codes audience: admiration, contempt, disappointment, pride Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 12. CRICOS No.00213J Example: Fujimori Las piedras que nos tira Perú Libre no nos detendrán en nuestra decisión de rescatar al Perú del comunismo y la izquierda radical. ¡Viva la paz y la democracia! Codes candidate: adoration, calmness, contempt, pride, them/us Codes audience: admiration, anger, empathic pain, contempt, satisfaction, sympathy, Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
- 13. CRICOS No.00213J Range of (many) emotions Audiences’ desired emotions Audiences’ desired emotions in affectively polarising content Candidates’ portrayed emotions Candidates’ portrayed emotions in affectively polarising content
- 14. CRICOS No.00213J Range of (many) emotions Audiences’ desired emotions Audiences’ desired emotions in affectively polarising content Candidates’ portrayed emotions Candidates’ portrayed emotions in affectively polarising content
- 15. CRICOS No.00213J In some kind of conclusion… • As expected styles of communication are different in Latin America vs ‘West’ • Authenticity means something different (re. smiles) • Use of video is different – long streams vs short soundbites • However, there are significant similarities • Large range of emotions overall • Fewer in polarising content • Personal styles come through within cultural differences and might be as or more significant • Gender differences not significant in this particular (small) sample compared with above • Negative vs positive emotions are not strong predictors of polarisation • Emotions might be expressed differently, based on culture and personality • BUT they are also similar emotions Svegaard, Choucair, O’Connor & Bruns I 2023
Editor's Notes
- Early in the coding, Kate O’Connor Farfan noted that Peruvians (and Brazilians) smile exuberantly and Danes very soberly. Using a subdued smile would be read as inauthentic in Peru, while using an exuberant one would be understood as inauthentic in Denmark. This is by no means surprising, but it is striking when seen as systematically as we did in this dataset. However, this expected, if fun, difference is not the most interesting finding. The gold is in the similarities, not the differences. And with that… ->
- Albanese: challenger, labor & Morrison: incumbent, liberals Bolsonaro: incumbent, right wing populism & Lula: challenger, labor Ellemann-Jensen: challenger, liberal & Frederiksen: incumbent, labor Castillo: challenger, left/populism/unknown & Fujimori: challenger, right wing (incumbent in prison after being impeached, leading to the election) The candidates are presented with their Facebook profiles pictures at the time of the presentation to reflect the data collection on that platform.
- A lot more could be said about methods here, of course. But we want to highlight the cultural coding as a deliberate choice to lean into expertise and cultural understanding. Coder interdependency not yet done, but will be on the Australian set as a ground where all have knowledge and language proficiency, before we do any kind of publishing. Therefore, this is also still somewhat early results and still in progress. We coded both written text in the posts as well as image and short video content. Long videos were excluded as they were too content heavy for the scale of this project. However, there is a significance in how video was employed, which we return to in the conclusions.
- Just to give an overview of the range of emotions we saw. Only few emotions were never used in codes, including boredom and sexual desire – neither of which would be particularly good political communication, so that makes sense. Clicking further, just as an example, look at Sympathy. It appears pretty consistently for all candidates, though is employed more sparingly when candidates are creating polarising content.
- The top four emotions used in all posts vs those with polarising content. Looking at general side (left) we can see that the similarities are as pronounced as the differences. Some candidates are outliers, like Ellemann-Jensen’s use of sympathy and Morrison’s lack of excitement. But for example Pride is very evenly distributed. On the polarising side, looking at contempt, Bolsonaro is an outlier, but everyone else is almost level. The same with anger, apart from the particular employment of that in the two right-wing candidates from Latin America, something pointed out by our cultural coders as being a particular thing. If we take a look at pride on the right, we also see that the cultural context is perhaps less pronounced than personal style. Where Bolsonaro uses this emotion to a very high degree, followed by his counterpart, Lula, the Peruvians use it far less, and Castillo, in fact, does not use it at all.
- Here follows two examples of candidates’ use of contempt as something they themselves are expressing. The contrast between the image – neutral to positive, posing with a minister in his government – and a very strongly worded text is striking. Translation: “- The organized crime candidate, on the other hand, cannot announce anyone because he has already given everything to political groups and parties in exchange for support. That's why he is the system's candidate, because whoever is a hostage can be blackmailed. Or does anyone think he was released from prison for charity? - What he calls the front for democracy is, in fact, the return of false harmony, the one in which the "companheiros" steal in peace while you pay the bill. There is no commitment to the people when you are already committed to other interests. This is how systemic corruption is born! "
- Here is a use of the same emotion by Denmark’s Frederiksen. Again a contrast to the image, though far less striking. There is a hint of a smile, but also a look that could be construed as disappointed. Both posts are long and are indicting an opposing politician (Frederiksen is not naming names, but any reading would be aware of who from New Right made that particular statement), and operationalises the same emotion. Translation: “I rarely use this profile to comment on other parties’ politics. But this is one step too far. New Right [far right populist party] apparently believe that it should be possible to deselect aged care workers because of their homosexuality or because they’re Jewish. It is a proposal that is destructive for any society. Including the Danish. Cohesion is destroyed. It is the entirely wrong path to go down. Last week there was a debate on whether it should be possible to deselect an aged care worker if they are wearing a headscarf. Denmark must not be divided along any lines. Employees must be evaluated on their qualifications and nothing else.“
- When looking at what candidates are looking to inspire in their audiences, we see similar patterns to the emotions they themselves present. Looking on the left with all posts, sympathy and admiration are fairly evenly used, whereas the outliers are striking. Castillo’s use of inspiring nostalgia is so pronounced it broke the scale, whereas the rest of the candidates are not leaning into this as much, and it is entirely absent in Bolsonaro. With interest, the outlier is Morrison (this is not the only time he’s the 0 emotions candidate), while it is a more popular used emotion in the Danish election than any of the others, though not by a large margin at all. In fact, it became clear – and the polarising posts are a good example here – that personal styles are perhaps more important than cultural similarities. Looking at the Latin American candidates, we can see that Bolsonaro and Lula score very high in all four emotions, while the same emotions are not strongly present in Castillo and Fujimori at all. In face, two of them are not there at all. Similarly, comparting the two “Western” countries, We see Ellemann-Jensen’s use of Admiration as a particular thing, while we have a clear example of Morrison’s lack of emotions in this set. The most culturally common thing here is a lack of disgust.
- Here are two examples of posts inspiring contempt in the audience. First we see this clear and precise posts from Albanese – and an example of a text-only post, of which there were very few! Only in Australia did they show up more than a couple of times. Otherwise, Facebook posts have images or video attached. (We can only speculate on causes, but the idea of “algorithm tax” - ie a way to get the post boosted through including visuals – may be at play.)
- Against Albanese’s post, we see Fujimori. Her post is also short and precise, but far more strongly emotional, as one would expect. It is, however, still the same emotion employed in a very similar manner. Translation: “The stones that Peru Libre [Castillo’s political party] is throwing at us are not going to stop us in our decision of rescuing Peru from communism and radical left. Long live peace and democracy!”
- A brief return to the range of emotions will illustrate the point about personal style. Consider here Australia’s Morrison and his pronounced lack of emotional content. His style is far less emotive than any other candidate. He has a few key emotions, particularly eliciting sympathy and portraying satisfaction, but his range is limited compared to everyone else.
- As a contrast, Brazil’s Bolsonaro uses emotions far more than anyone else, particularly negatively coded emotions. He also uses emotions more powerfully in his polarising content than anyone else. While Lula at times comes close, it is clear that their differences are also pronounced to the point where they sometimes spike in emotions that the other does not use. So Bolsonaro’s style is also distinct.
- We will continue to work with this data, so these are early conclusions. However, the main takeaway so far is the distinct personal styles being more pronounced than the cultural ones.