1. ANALYSIS OF THE VARIOUS STOCKS TRADED IN PORTFOLIO for
STOCK MARKET STIMULATION GAME.
SUNNY.
ROLL NO.: 16030
SESSION: PGDM 2016-18
CALCUTTA BUSINESS SCHOOL
2. INTRODUCTION:
PortfolioManagement:It the science of analyzingthe strengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats
for performingwiderange of activitiesrelatedtothe oneโsportfolioformaximizingthe returnata given
risk.It helpsinmakingselectionof DebtVsEquity,GrowthVsSafety,andvariousothertradeoffs.
Major tasks involvedwithPortfolioManagementare asfollows.
๏ท Takingdecisionsaboutinvestmentmix andpolicy
๏ท Matching investmentstoobjectives
๏ท Assetallocationforindividualsandinstitution
๏ท Balancingriskagainstperformance
There are basically twotypesof portfoliomanagementincase of mutual andexchange-tradedfunds
includingpassiveandactive.
๏ท Passive managementinvolvestrackingof the marketindex orindex investing.
๏ท Active managementinvolvesactivemanagementof afundโsportfoliobymanagerorteamof managers
whotake researchbasedinvestmentdecisionsanddecisionsonindividual holdings.
Portfolio:In termsof mutual fundindustry,aportfolioisbuiltbybuyingadditional bonds,mutual funds,
stocks,or otherinvestments.If apersonownsmore than one security,he hasan investmentportfolio.
The main targetof the portfolioowneristoincrease value of portfoliobyselectinginvestmentsthat
yieldgoodreturns.
VARIOUS Factsabout Portfolio:
๏ท There are manyinvestmentvehiclesinaportfolio.
๏ท Buildingaportfolioinvolvesmakingwide range of decisionsregardingbuyingorsellingof stocks,bonds,
or otherfinancial instruments.Also,one needstomake decisionregardingthe quantityandtimingof
the buy andsell.
๏ท PortfolioManagementisgoal-drivenandtargetoriented.
๏ท There are inherentrisksinvolvedinthe managingaportfolio.
3. Companies Selected:
๏ท Bharti Airtel
๏ท Hero MotoCorp
๏ท Bajaj Auto
๏ท Dr. ReddysLabs
๏ท AxisBank
๏ท Lupin
๏ท SunPharma
๏ท TVS Motor
๏ท Dabur India
๏ท AsianPaints
FUNDAMENTALANALYSIS:
๏ถ P/E RATIO(PRICETOEARNINGRATIO):
๏ Accordingto one view,lowerthe P/Eratio,the betteritis for investors,asthere are chancesof
higherappreciation.
๏ Generally,acompanywitha highP/Eratio isexpensive whencomparedwith acompanywitha
lowP/E ratio,since witha highP/Eratio one ispayinga largermultiple againstacompany's
earnings.
๏ The higherthe P/E, the more youare payingforan estimatedstreamof earnings.Investors
usuallyare willingtopaya higherP/Efor companiestheyjudge willbe growingfasterthanthe
norm eventhoughtheydonotpay those earningsoutindividendsbutretainthemtofund
future growth.
๏ P/E Ratio =
๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐
๐๐๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐
๏ถ P/B RATIO(PRICETOBOOK VALUE RATIO):
๏ The price-to-bookratio measures a company's marketprice in relation to its bookvalue. The
ratio denotes how much equity investors are paying for each dollar in netassets.
๏ A P/B ratio of less than 1.0 can indicate that a stock is undervalued, while a ratio of
greater than 1.0 may indicate that a stock is overvalued.
๏ The price-to-bookratio indicates whether or not a company's assetvalue is comparable to
the marketprice of its stock. For this reason, it can be useful for finding value stocks. It is
4. especially useful when valuing companies that are composed of mostly liquidassets, such
as finance, investment, insurance, and banking firms
๏ P/BV Ratio =
๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐
๐๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐
๏ถ DEBTEQUITY RATIO:
๏ The debtto equityratioisa financial,liquidityratiothatcomparesa company'stotal debtto
total equity.The debttoequityratioshowsthe percentage of company financingthatcomes
fromcreditorsand investors.A higherdebttoequityratioindicatesthatmore creditorfinancing
(bankloans) isusedthaninvestorfinancing(shareholders).
๏ A highdebt/equityratiogenerallymeansthata companyhas beenaggressiveinfinancingits
growthwithdebt.Thiscan resultinvolatile earningsasa resultof the additional interest
expense.
๏ Debt/Equity Ratio=
๐๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ
๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
๏ถ RELATIVE STRENGTHINDEX (RSI):
A technical momentumindicatorthatcomparesthe magnitudeof recentgainstorecentlossesin
an attemptto determine overboughtandoversoldconditionsof an asset.The RSI rangesfrom 0
to 100. An assetisdeemedtobe overboughtonce the RSIapproachesthe 70 level,meaningthat
itmaybe gettingovervaluedandisagoodcandidateforapullback.Likewise,if theRSIapproaches
30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become
undervalued.
5. ๏ถ MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE (MACD):
A trend-followingmomentumindicatorthatshowsthe relationshipbetweentwomovingaveragesof
prices.The MACD is calculatedbysubtractingthe 26-dayexponential movingaverage (EMA) fromthe
12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, calledthe "signal line",isthenplottedontopof the MACD,
functioningasa triggerforbuy andsell signals.
Crossovers- As showninthe chart above,whenthe MACD fallsbelow the signalline,itisa bearish
signal,whichindicates thatitmaybe time to sell.Conversely,whenthe MACDrisesabove the signal
line,the indicatorgivesabullishsignal,whichsuggeststhatthe price of the assetis likelytoexperience
upwardmomentum.Manytraderswaitfor a confirmedcrossabove the signal line before enteringinto
a positiontoavoidgetting "fakedout"orenteringintoa positiontooearly,asshownbythe firstarrow.
Divergence - Whenthe securityprice divergesfromthe MACD.It signalsthe endof the currenttrend.
Dramatic rise - Whenthe MACD risesdramatically - thatis,the shortermovingaverage pullsaway
fromthe longer-termmovingaverage - itisa signal thatthe securityisoverboughtandwill soonreturn
to normal levels.
๏ถ MOMENTUM
Once a momentumtraderseesaccelerationinastock's price,earningsorrevenues,the traderwill often
take a longorshort positioninthe stockinthe hope thatitsmomentumwillcontinueineitheranupward
or downward direction. This strategy relies on short-term movements in a stock's price rather than
fundamental value, and it is not recommended for novices.
6. ๏ถ BOLLINGER BANDS
A band plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average, developed by famous
technical trader John Bollinger.
Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger Bands adjust themselves to the market
conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the
average),andduringlessvolatileperiods,the bandscontract(moveclosertothe average).The tightening
of the bandsisoftenusedbytechnical tradersasanearlyindicationthatthe volatilityisabouttoincrease
sharply.
๏ถ Parabolic SAR:
Parabolic Stop and Reverse Price (Parabolic SAR) is an adaptive technique which allows a new
trend some breathing space and then closes in to tighten the stop order. It uses a series of
progressivelysmallerperiodexponential movingaverageswhere eachperiodof movingaverage
isshorterthan the previousone.Thisway,firstsometime isgivenforthe trendtosetitself.Then
the moving average comes close to the actual data set. The signal is โbuyโ when the daily high
price is lower than the SAR and โsellโ when the daily low price is higher than the SAR.
7. ๏ถ Chaikin money flow:
ChaikinMoneyFlow(CMF) isan oscillatorthatfluctuatesbetween -1and +1. Rarely,if ever,will
the indicatorreach these extremes.Itwouldtake 20 consecutive closesonthe high(low) for20-
day Chaikin Money Flow to reach +1 (-1). Typically, this oscillator fluctuates between -0.50 and
+0.50 with zero as the centerline.