1. 1329.05.13 – 02.06.13 RacingPostWeekender
Worldcanrule
atDerbytrip
W
ITH a brilliant
2,000 Guineas
winner
dominating the
Derby market, we look to the
Dosage system to decide if
Dawn Approach is the good
thing many believe him to be.
The table at the top of the
page shows the 15 left in the
Derby at the time of going to
press. It is arranged with those
showing the most stamina
potential at the top and the
least at the bottom, ranked in
order of DI.
Steve
Miller
Our dosage
expert with
his view on
the Oaks and
Derby
Stamina doubts
Dawn Approach’s sire New
Approach had more than
enough stamina for the Derby
(DI 0.89), but the chances of
the Derby favourite are much
less clear-cut on a DI of 1.67,
which would not be a typical
mark for a Derby winner.
In fact, only the atypical Sea
The Stars had a higher DI of the
past 12 winners of the race (see
table right). We must take on
board that he is a relaxed
individual, but the Dosage
suggests we should look
elsewhere for our winner.
While Dawn Approach
appears toward the bottom of
our table (indicating speed over
stamina), the other New
Approach colt in the field,
Libertarian, features at the top,
due to being out of a Darshaan
mare. Libertarian can be
expected to have more than
enough stamina for this and
will surely come into his own
later in the season in the St
Leger. Seven Dante winners
have gone on to win the Derby
since 1980 and four in the past
nine years. He will not fail for
stamina but may be wanting for
overall class.
Team Ballydoyle
Aidan O’Brien has a typically
powerful hand. The Galileo colt
Magician will be well suited to
1m4f, on a DI of 1.0, but the
Derby may come too soon for
Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas
winner.
His stablemate, Ruler Of The
World, also by Galileo and out
of the Kingmambo mare Love
Dosage clues forthe Epsom Classics
Me True, on a DI of 1.05, will
also be perfectly suited to the
trip. He has eight stamina
points in his profile and this
should prove his optimum trip.
Both Ruler Of The World and
Magician occupy a sweet spot
in our table.
Battle Of Marengo has
sharper influences than some
of these through Green Desert
on his dam’s side and has the
same headline DI of 1.67 as
Dawn Approach.
Yet another of Ballydoyle’s
Galileo colts, Mars, could also
develop into a leading middle-
distance performer for the yard
this season on a DI of 1.29.
French challenge
The Andre Fabre-trained
Ocovango is very well placed in
our table on a DI of 0.87. His
sire Monsun is a Classic/Solid
chef-de-race and consequently
an influence for middle-
distance stamina. Ocovango’s
dam sire Gone West is also
showing prepotent influence
(and is a strong candidate for
the next tranche of chef-de-
race sires). The unbeaten
Ocovango looks a colt of some
quality and will be difficult to
keep out of the frame at this
distance.
The Derby takes on a
convincing international tone
with the inclusion of the
Andreas Wohler-trained
Chopin, supplemented at a cost
of £75,000. He’s set to become
the first German-trained
runner in the race and will be
fully effective at the trip.
Speed/stamina balance
The optimum blend of speed
and stamina for the Derby is
often expressed as a DI of 1.0
and a centre of distribution
(CD) of zero. The average DI
for the past 12 winners is only a
little higher at 1.16 and those
in a band between about DI 0.8
and 1.4 appear best suited to
the requirements of the race
(see table).
Dosage of previous
Derby winners
Those who matched this
requirement in the past 12
years were: Camelot (DI 0.94),
Pour Moi (0.78), Workforce
(1.44), New Approach (0.89),
Authorized (0.86), Motivator
(1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris
Kin (1.05), High Chaparral
(0.82) and Galileo (1.11).
Verdict
The best matches this year are:
Ocovango (DI 0.87), First
Cornerstone (1.00),
Magician (1.00), Ruler Of
The World (1.05), Trading
Leather (1.15), Chopin
(1.15) and Mars (1.29).
Those with the best chances
are Ocovango, Magician, Ruler
Of The World, Mars and
possibly Chopin. We might also
add Battle Of Marengo to this
list as he is shaping well as a
middle-distance performer and
has always been earmarked for
this race by his trainer.
RULER OF THE WORLD is
taken to hold off the challenge
of his stablemates and
Ocovango. Dawn Approach is
expected to travel well for a
long way before emptying.
1. RULER OF THE WORLD
oo9
2. Ocovango oo9 (place)
3. Magician
4. Mars
Colt Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Libertarian New Approach/Darshaan 1-1-7-3-2 = 14 0.65 -0.29
Mirsaale Sir Percy/Sadler’s Wells 3-1-9-6-1 = 20 0.74 -0.05
Galileo Rock Galileo/Groom Dancer 5-0-11-4-4 = 24 0.78 -0.08
Festive Cheer Montjeu/Pembroke 3-0-10-5-0 = 18 0.80 0.06
Ocovango Monsun/Gone West 5-1-16-8-0 = 30 0.87 0.10
First Cornerstone Hurricane Run/Diesis 4-0-8-3-1 = 16 1.00 0.19
Magician Galileo/Mozart 3-1-8-4-0 = 16 1.00 0.19
Ruler Of The World Galileo/Kingmambo 9-0-21-8-0 = 38 1.05 0.26
Trading Leather Teofilo/Sinndar 1-3-7-3-0 = 14 1.15 0.14
Chopin Santiago/Galileo 3-1-7-2-1 = 14 1.15 0.21
Mars Galileo/Danehill 5-2-13-4-0 = 24 1.29 0.33
Flying The Flag Galileo/Pivotal 3-4-9-4-0 = 20 1.35 0.30
Battle Of Marengo Galileo/Green Desert 8-3-13-4-0 = 28 1.67 0.54
Dawn Approach New Approach/Phone Trick 2-4-8-2-0 = 16 1.67 0.38
Ocean Applause Royal Applause/Magic Ring 2-2-6-0-0 = 10 2.33 0.60
Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution. The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2
corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to
Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to
Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential
DOSAGE PROFILE OF 2013 DERBY RUNNERS
Filly Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Gertrude Versed Manduro/Sugar Mill 2-0-11-5-0 = 18 0.71 -0.05
The Lark Pivotal/In The Wings 2-1-16-6-1 = 26 0.73 -0.12
Talent New Approach/Peintre Celebre 3-0-13-4-0 = 20 0.90 0.10
Miss You Too Montjeu/Peintre Celebre 3-1-17-5-0 = 26 0.93 0.08
Say Galileo/Dynaformer 4-0-16-4-0 = 24 1.00 0.17
Liber Nauticus Azamour/Daylami 3-0-8-3-0 = 14 1.00 0.21
Secret Gesture Galileo/Danehill 4-2-14-4-0 = 24 1.18 0.25
Moth Galileo/Seattle Slew 8-0-16-4-0 = 28 1.33 0.43
Madame Defarge Motivator/Zafonic 4-0-6-2-0 = 12 1.40 0.50
Banoffee Hurricane Run/Anabaa 3-2-7-2-0 = 14 1.55 0.43
Roz Teofilo/Anabaa 3-3-8-2-0 = 16 1.67 0.44
Snow Queen Danehill Dancer/Royal Academy 10-9-11-4-0 = 34 2.58 0.74
Key to Profile: See footnote to Derby
DOSAGE PROFILE OF 2013 OAKS RUNNERS
Year Colt DI
2012 Camelot 0.94
2011 Pour Moi 0.78
2010 Workforce 1.44
2009 Sea The Stars 3.00
2008 New Approach 0.89
2007 Authorized* 0.86
2006 Sir Percy 0.54
2005 Motivator 1.43
2004 North Light* 1.13
2003 Kris Kin* 1.05
2002 High Chaparral 0.82
2001 Galileo 1.11
Average: 1.16
DOSAGE OF PREVIOUS
DERBY RUNNERS
OF THE 12 who could line up in Friday’s
Oaks, the dosage system marks out
Talent (DI 0.90), Miss You Too (0.93),
Say (1.0), Liber Nauticus (1.0), Secret
Gesture (1.18) and Moth (1.33) as the
best suited to 1m4f.
The Ralph Beckett-trained Talent looks
a decent prospect at this trip and the
yard’s Secret Gesture will also be well
suited. The pair should make a bold bid to
emulate the yard’s success with Look Here
in 2008.
Of Aidan O’Brien’s runners, Moth looks
his leading hope, being by Galileo out of a
Seattle Slew mare. While beaten a couple
of lengths in the 1,000 Guineas, she
finished to telling effect and should get
1m4f (on a DI of 1.33). Her turn of foot
could prove decisive at this level.
Sir Michael Stoute is bidding to add to
his two Oaks successes with the unbeaten
albeit unexposed Liber Nauticus. The
Azamour filly, out of a Daylami mare,
should improve again for stepping up in
trip.
The John Gosden-trained Manduro filly
Gertrude Versed will certainly get the trip
but may be just short of the required class.
The supplemented Banoffee got the
better of Gertrude Versed in the Cheshire
Oaks, quickening from the rear and
staying on powerfully. She will also have
no problem with the trip and will stay
even better than her headline Dosage
number suggests, due to the as-yet
unrecognised prepotent stamina influence
of Montjeu in her tail-male line.
Michael Bell’s Madame Defarge is
interesting, by Derby winner Motivator,
but others are more likely to fully relish
the 1m4f. Bell also saddles The Lark, who
will certainly stay.
The Galileo fillies Moth and Secret
Gesture are the two to concentrate on,
with Banoffee, Talent and Say looking the
best of the each-way value, and MOTH is
taken to fly in the face of a strong Beckett
team.
Verdict
1. MOTH oo9
2. Secret Gesture
3. Banoffee
Moththestaminachoicewithturnoffoottosealdeal
‘Ralph Beckett’s
pairwill make
a bold bid to
emulate the
yard’s success
with Look Here
in 2008’
Beautifully-bred Ruler Of The
World will love the Derby trip