This document discusses key steps to reduce costs, risks, and uncertainties for offshore wind power project development in Southeast European economies. It identifies several challenges including high upfront costs, technical difficulties of operating in marine environments, and uncertainties around wind resource assessment and production levels. The document recommends using innovative IT tools and standardized methodologies to help optimize project layouts, conduct financial modeling, and identify and mitigate risks throughout the development process to improve the viability and bankability of offshore wind projects.

1. Offshore Wind Power Roadmap For South Eastern
European Economies — Key Steps To Reduce
Identified Project Development
Costs|Risks|Uncertainties
Stavros Ph.Thomas∗,1, Confidential† and Philip Marcus‡
∗Anemorphosis Research Group, †Iberdrola Renewables, ‡NATURA 2000
ABSTRACT Wind Energy development faces numerous challenges and has become subject to unstable
international conditions in economical and social terms. To meet these challenges offshore wind has a key
role to play. To sustain public acceptance, establish cost and time effective project development methodologies
and provide continued protection to vulnerable coastal and marine ecosystems, it is important to build upon
the positive experience gained so far with the use of innovative IT planning and development applications.
This article describes some of the most significant experiences with offshore wind power and discusses the
environmental issues and project development challenges that wind industry has had to address in the near
future. The implementation of an innovative IT platform to drive project scoping and identify key issues on the
wind energy plants infrastructure is also presented.
KEYWORDS
Offshore Wind
Europe
IT Wind
RoadMap
Contributors: Anemorphosis|Iberdrola|Stakeholders Mecha-
nisms|NATURA 2000 Network.
With the goal of a more secure, cleaner and affordable energy
future in mind, Anemorphosis has developed a suite of roadmaps
that consider possible scenarios moving from the present to the
longer term horizon of 2050. This involves considering resource
availability, technology and supply chain development paths,
transmission and system integration requirements and our ex-
isting and future regulatory environment. A roadmap considers
these issues, maps a potential path to a future deployment scenario,
and estimates some of the benefits of achieving that scenario.
The scenarios recognize that wind turbine technology, as well
as technology for integrating wind energy into electricity systems
designed for conventional power, will continue to advance in the
coming decades. Thus sites being developed today have the poten-
tial to repower with more efficient technology or larger capacity
turbines.
Copyright © 2015 Stavros Philipp Thomas et al.
Manuscript compiled: Saturday 1st
August, 2015%
1
For more info please contact Anemorphosis Research Group at
info@anemorphosis.com. This report is a part of a confidential evaluation. The roadmap
is published to facilitate the economic recession of the market and offshore wind industry
as a part of a holistic research.
INTRODUCTION
In order to develop a perspective on the future of wind power
and provide a holistically proposed solution we have analyzed
several factors that are positively affecting wind power project
development in order to gauge both the potential impact of each
variable, as well as the likelihood that the factor will persist for
the mediumor long-term. Since wind projects are anticipated to
provide investors returns over a 25-to-30 year-life, it is important
to assess the likely impact of growth drivers beyond the next few
years.
Wind Farm Project Management and the development method-
ologies and pratctises associated with the entire life-cycle is not
a simple task. There are three key success factors to effectively
manage the risks associated with the wind power project devel-
opment procedures. Firstly, the use of a proven project delivery
methodology, which has been refined over time to minimise project
risk. Getting this wrong, whether from a planning, timing, bud-
geting, tenders evaluation, accessibility, or safety perspective can
be extremely expensive and undermine the business case for the
project. Secondly, the need for engineering resources with specific
electricity sector experience. This is critical for managing interfaces
on the project and ensuring that both the physical and electrical
systems are considered. The third factor is the availability of ex-
Volume X | August 2015 | 1
INVESTIGATIONS

2. perienced project management staff to oversee both the planning
and implementation of the project.
Through this confidential investigation conducted by the
ANEMORPHOSIS Research Group, a part of this multi-directional
report is seeking potential and promising solutions regarding the
following key program activity areas:
• Technology Development including specific activities to help
overcome the technological barriers for offshore wind energy.
• Market Barrier Removal including specific activities that will
help reduce the impact of non-technical barriers for offshore
wind energy.
• Crosscutting Offshore Wind Energy Solutions including the
ongoing Offshore Wind Advanced Technology.
• Demonstration projects and specific activities that will im-
prove resource assessment, site characterization, electricity
delivery, and grid integration.
• Overall Strategy and Impact to broadly consider the offshore
wind portfolio performance and path forward for offshore
wind energy in the Southeastern European economies.
WIND POWER PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
The process of developing wind projects offshore typically lasts
5-10 years from project initiation to the wind farm has been com-
missioned. This is followed by 20-30 years of operations during
which the up-front investment is recouped. Figure 1, illustrates the
main steps of developing a project from idea to a commissioned
wind farm.
The development stage, which is also one of the most critical
ones for the economic and technical viability of the investment, is
characterised by establishment of the project layout on basis of for
example environmental, geotechnical and wind studies. The tur-
bine models should be placed such that soil and wind conditions
favour lower CAPEX and higher AEP. Furthermore, a preliminary
financial model should be built in order to assess if the investment
case can be expected to be economically feasible.
Procurement contracts on construction parameters and turbine
service procedures are conditioned on the construction start or the
commissioning of the project. New insights on production, CAPEX
and OPEX feed into a refinement of the sensitivity financial model
which in turn supports financial consent from investors, lenders
and developers. After FID the project goes into the final stages of
the project lifecycle, which includes construction, operation and
maintenance.
Indeed the financial modeling is a dynamic and continuous
process and thus, is refined and adjusted in a parallel manner
with the project development life cycle. When performing a wind
investment case analysis we should focus on seven key elements
in order to properly understand the investment base case and
conduct sensitivity analyses, especially under economic recession
market circumstances. Figure 2, illustrates these critical elements
that frame the investment case evaluation.
Offshore Project Costs
Based on benchmark data we have been able to perform various
analyses on project costs of offshore wind farms located in Europe.
We concluded that wind turbines with higher name plate capacity
located in greater site depth have increased total project costs per
installed MW historically.
This is supported by the figure 3 which shows project costs for
34 offshore projects (blue dots) and compares it to sea depth at the
project site and size of the employed turbines. The green trend lines
Figure 2 Economic Evaluation Critical Parameters.
illustrate increasing project costs with increasing site depth and
turbine size, respectively. The latter might seem counter intuitive
and could in part be explained by the fact that larger turbines
may comprise new-prototypes and relatively unproven technology.
The positive relation between project costs and site depth may
be explained by the fact that greater site depth requires larger
and more complex foundations, very big cranes and supporting
infrastructure in general, which in turn leads to higher project
costs. However, according to EY, Deloitte, Allianz and others, IT
innovation and standardisation are expected to help the industry
in realising its cost reduction targets of up to 40% for offshore wind
energy.
Figure 3 Our analysis based on more than 40 international mar-
ket reports and 34 offshore projects commisioned/commisioning
after 2010 as well as our experience with offshore projects. Main
ressource on split: IRENA 2012 and Deloitte.
TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES
Nowadays, offshore wind turbines installed generally in the range
between 3 and 5 MW although prototypes of power up to 7 MW
and even higher are currently tested (Only a few months after its
sales launch at the EWEA Offshore trade show in Copenhagen,
the new Siemens offshore flagship wind turbine of the type SWT-
7.0-154 has now been installed as a prototype), indicating the man-
ufacturing trends concerning future wind turbines operating in
maritime environments. On top of that, wind farms’ total capacity
has increased as well. Before 2000, average wind farm size was
below 20 MW. Today, the experience has grown significantly so
that many countries are building large (average size of projects
exceeds 150 MW), utility-scale offshore wind farms or at least have
plans to do so.
Nevertheless, the vast majority of the existing large-scale com-
mercial projects still use shallow-water technology (located at less
than 30 m water depth) although the idea of going deeper is gradu-
ally moving closer towards implementation. Actually, the average
2 | Stavros Philipp Thomas et al.

3. Figure 1 Project lifecycle of onshore wind farm assets.
water depth remains below 20 m, (excluding the first full scale
floating wind turbine (Hywind) which was installed in 2009 off the
Norwegian coast at a water depth of 220 m. On the other hand, the
average distance from shore ten years ago was below 5 km, while
today is close to 30 km—confirming that offshore wind turbines
are installed increasingly away from the shores.
A. Production
Another important input parameter in the economic viability of
the project is the expected power production. As sufficient wind
speeds and capacity factor at the project site are the main drivers
of wind energy production and of wind park revenues, the un-
derstanding and forecast of wind become essential. Therefore, a
lot of effort must be put into assessing the wind energy resource
at the given project site with the highest prediction accuracy and
by taking into consideration the reliable numbers for the capacity
factors.
In general, actual capacity factors for onshore wind farms oscil-
late across time and regions, with an average value being between
20 and 30%. For instance, the average European value between
2003 and 2009 has been recorded at about 21%. The highest values
have been recorded for Greece and the UK (i.e. equal to 29.3%
and 26%, respectively) due to the existence of many low density
population areas which benefit of high wind speeds and enable
the siting of wind farms.
On the other hand, offshore sites may have the ability to demon-
strate quite higher capacity factors than onshore counterparts (as a
result of the higher mean power coefficient which is usually met
in offshore installations), typically ranging from 20% to 40%. One
may see that capacity factor values, in some cases, even reached
50%, however, this is not the rule since there are cases where the
recorded capacity factor may be quite low mainly as a result of the
combination of extended downtimes due to several system failures
and the tough conditions usually met in marine environments.
The traditional approach for gathering wind data is to construct
a meteorological mast equipped with anemometers. However, in
the offshore environment this practice is both difficult and expen-
sive to implement. Nowadays, a plethora of devices is available.
WINDCUBE and FLidar, the floating LiDAR technology are just
between the most famous innovative solutions to these problems.
FLiDAR can measure wind at turbine hub-height and provide
accurate and reliable data on wind speed, wind direction, and
turbulence. Additional sensors can be integrated onto the buoy to
achieve a full environmental assessment of the location.
Figure 4 Wind distribution assumption and turbine choice
B. AEP Uncertainty Estimation
Model uncertainty relates to the uncertainty of the parameters
estimated based on the wind study. Consequently, while wind
studies are often based on very complex models, there is a risk that
they contain estimation errors, such as measurement errors and/or
model errors. Measurement errors include that measured wind
characteristics may not be correct due to for example dysfunctional
measurement instruments or incorrect calibration of these. Model
errors for example relate to the risk that measured historical wind
conditions are not representative of the future wind conditions.
Furthermore, the wind study may be wrong with respect to
assessing the effect a turbine has on the turbine specific production
of the turbine behind it, which is called wake effects. The size of the
wake effects is affected by factors such as wind speed, wind density,
turbulence and distance between turbines, meaning that wake
effects may be larger when the wind is coming from a direction in
which turbines are located closer to each other. We consider model
uncertainty as a static uncertainty, which means that it is fixed over
time. This implies that if the wind study has underestimated the
true wind average speed or wake effects for the first operational
Volume X August 2015 | This is a part of a confidential work | 3

4. year, it will be underestimated in all years. Consequently, taking
wind study uncertainty into account, we reach static P75 and P90
measures that are fixed over the life of the project.
At figure 5, we illustrate how different P measures are affected
by how wind variability is taken into account (whether wind vari-
ability is averaged or not). The blue line illustrates production
uncertainty when all production uncertainty is considered on an
average basis, while the green line illustrates production uncer-
tainty when wind variability is based on short-term uncertainty.
Figure 5 AEP and Uncertainty. The graph is based on a 2.3MW
turbine
C. Technical Availability and Accessibility
The technical availability of a wind turbine depends, among others,
on: The technological status (experience gain effect throughout
the years) of the installation at the time it went online (increasing
experience in both production and operation issues in the offshore
sector suggests that the failure rate decreases and the reliability
increases respectively). The technical availability changes (aging
effect) during the installation’s operational life.
The accessibility difficulties (accessibility effect) of the wind
farm under investigation. This parameter is, as aforementioned,
of special interest for offshore wind parks, especially during win-
ter, due to bad weather conditions (high winds and huge waves
suspend the ship departure, thus preventing maintenance and
repair of the existing wind turbines). Nowadays, contemporary
land-based wind turbines and wind farms reach availability levels
of 98% or even more (Kaldellis, 2002, 2004; Harman et al., 2008)
but, once these wind turbines are placed offshore the accessibility
may be significantly restricted, thus causing a considerable impact
to the availability of the wind farm and in turn to the energy and
economic performance of the whole project.
This is not always the case however; apart from the distance
from the shore, the accessibility to a wind farm’s installation site
depends also on several other parameters such as local climate
conditions and the type and availability of the maintenance strat-
egy adopted (the limited size of some wind farms does not always
justify the purchase of a purpose built vessel so there may be
significant delays if the vessel is, for example, away for another
assignment). Thus, there are cases where the impact may be more
or less significant than the expected one.
A case with low recorded availability is North Hoyle offshore
wind farm, which is located in the UK, at an average distance from
the shore equal to 8 km (see also Table 3 where recorded availability
data for several wind farms are presented). As it is mentioned in
(BERR, 2005), the availability of this wind farm during a one-year
period (2004–2005) was recorded equal to 84The most notable
sources of unplanned maintenance and downtime have occurred
due to termination of cable burial and rock dumping activities
as well as high-voltage cable and generator faults. It is worth
mentioning that the downtime recorded splits to 66% owed to
turbine failure, 12% to construction activities, 5% to scheduled
maintenance and 17% to site inaccessibility due to harsh weather
conditions.
Another example with even lower availability (67%) is the case
of Barrow offshore wind farm (see also Table 1), also located about
8 km far from shore, in the UK. The total average availability of
this project is quoted as 67% for one-year period between July 2006
and June 2007. This low availability is due to a number of wind
turbine faults, mainly generator bearings and rotor cable faults
combined with low access to the site because of high waves during
that time period.
RISKS IDENTIFICATION
To identify and evaluate the potential risks of the offshore projects
risk as well as determining the likelihood of occurrence and the
financial impact is also a very critical factor. The participants in
each risk workshop should include all key stakeholders in a project
at a given stage, ensuring an adequate, thorough and objective
evaluation.
We often find that risk workshops that are somewhat struc-
tured and operationalized through for example a risk matrix as
shown on Figure 6 are more valuable for the future process evalua-
tion. It facilitates mapping of the identified risks according to the
magnitude of the potential impact and the probability of the risk
materialising into an unwanted outcome. The matrix can further
be applied for prioritising the identified risks and determining
de-risking actions on the most urgent risks.
Critical Availability Factors
As a result of the above, the critical role of the technical avail-
ability over a period of time for the energy production of a given
wind turbine or an entire wind farm is reflected. At this point,
one should also note that technical availability of a wind turbine
depends, among others, on:
• The technological status (experience gain effect throughout
the years) of the installation at the time it went online (increas-
ing experience in both production and operation issues in the
offshore sector suggests that the failure rate decreases and the
reliability increases respectively.
• The technical availability changes (aging effect) during the
installation’s operational life.
• The accessibility difficulties (accessibility effect) of the wind
farm under investigation. This parameter is, as aforemen-
tioned, of special interest for offshore wind parks, especially
during winter, due to bad weather conditions (high winds
and huge waves suspend the ship departure, thus preventing
maintenance and repair of the existing wind turbines.
SAFETY
It is essential that today’s designers, manufacturers and project
developers involved with the latest energy generation technology
develop solutions that are robust, reliable and safe.
Certification and due-diligence reviews of marine and wind
energy devices are necessary as part of the confidence building
process and will demand validated design analysis. Making use
4 | Stavros Philipp Thomas et al.

5. Figure 6 Offshore Project Risks Matrix.
of such reliable and independent analysis, supported by appropri-
ate design codes and standards, will help to deliver tomorrow’s
sustainable solutions.
On Tuesday 17th February 2015, FoundOcean and BASF
launched an integrated material and service system for the provi-
sion of a new high strength grout, MasterFlow 9800, in Edinburgh,
UK. The high strength grout is the result of over 3 years of joint
development, the primary purpose of which has been to deliver
significant and quantifiable improvements in productivity and
safety when grouting offshore structures.
Capital Safety, a global provider in fall protection and home of
the DBI-SALA and PROTECTA brands, mention that a compre-
hensive, objective assessment of the possible human health effects
of the proposed wind projects is often underestimated. To over-
come the consequences of the lack of reliable safety regulations
on offshore wind energy constructions, the development progress
optimization, risks identification with IT solutions and design im-
provements could mitigate the principal risks on the workforce
involved in such complex projects.
ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY RAISE PRODUCTIVITY,
LOWERS COSTS
High wind resource areas are also becoming even more productive
thanks to a combination of longer blades, improved siting tech-
niques and other factors. Some older sites are being repowered
by new turbines. Others are receiving a variety of refinements to
existing turbines such as blade tip extensions, vortex generators,
and improved electronics, making them more productive. As a
result, the average annual “capacity factor,” or percentage of the
maximum rated capacity that a turbine generates year-round, now
tops 50 percent in some cases.
These innovations have contributed to a drop in the price of
wind-generated electricity. Wind’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE,
the net cost to install and operate a turbine, divided by its life-
time energy output), has dropped 58 percent in just five years,
according to the most recent study by Wall Street financial advi-
sory firm Lazard. Through technology advancements, hard work,
and performance-based incentives wind could be the dominant
technology in energy. Without stable regulatory policy and en-
vironmental frameworks, the continued innovation and further
wind cost reductions needed could be placed in jeopardy.
ROADMAP FOR ACTION
Anemorphosis analysis concludes that the Study Scenario de-
scribed on the Introduction of this report is technically feasible,
generates long-term savings, and brings substantial environmen-
tal and local community benefits. However, a balanced set of
key actions is required, to achieve the wind deployment levels
of the Study Scenario. Optimizing wind power project devel-
opment, requires coordination among multiple parties who can
implement a set of complementary approaches, PD methodologies
and strategies optimization, stakeholders collaboration, offshore
grid reliability, tenders and supply chain efficiency, IT solutions to
facilitate and accelerate the associated project development and
project planning procedures. The Study Scenario organizes efforts
into three key themes—reducing wind costs, expanding developable
areas, and increasing the ROI.
The strategic approach is summarized in Table 2. Actions high-
lighted in the the Study Scenario Roadmap inform ongoing DOE
technology research and development initiatives. By increasing
energy production per euro invested, among other goals, such ini-
tiatives are intended to support broadbased cost reductions as well
as the expansion of wind development potential in areas where
limited potential was thought to exist, including NATURA 2000
environmentally protected sites where the regulation framework
is quite problematic.
RELATIVE IMPACT ON LCOE
Figure 7 shows the impact on LCOE of each intervention if applied
separately as apart of a parametric analysis. Because the effects of
interventions are correlated, when multiple interventions are ap-
Volume X August 2015 | This is a part of a confidential work | 5

6. plied to a project, the resultant total project impacts may be smaller
than the sum of predicted impacts for each unique intervention.
Figure 7 Relative Impact on LCOE
Figure 8 depicts a plausible timeline that would take advantage
of all of the interventions detailed here that could collectively lead
to a 50% cost reduction from the base case. This finding does not
preclude the reality that bids could ultimately come from project
developers that use some but not all of the interventions here or
who have other routes to cost reduction which might be possible
on a faster schedule than that shown here.
If the RoadMap Scenario actions were to implement for a full
suite of interventions, first steps would include, in active collabo-
ration with industry:
• Initiating the process to obtain a permit for offshore projects
in NATURA offshore sites.
• Beginning stakeholder engagement in coastal communities to
determine siting preferences.
• Policy design improvement, including:
– Market visibility commitments.
– Revenue policy
– Public/private partnership for financing offshore wind
projects.
– Revenue contract policy
– Siting/exclusion areas.
– Design and conduct wind resource and wave assessment
campaign.
– Contract for and conduct social and technical surveys.
– Contract for and conduct environmental surveys.
KEY FINDINGS
• Given favorable developments in policy and infrastructure,
Greece can achieve 70GW deployment of offshore wind by
2050
• Wind energy has the potential to generate enough electricity
to exceed domestic demand by 2020
• A comparison of electricity demand and wind generation
potential shows the capacity for Greece’s wind market to
become export driven in the 2020–2030 timeframe.
• As the onshore and offshore wind markets mature, re-
powering and operation and maintenance will become key to
Figure 8 Sequencing of Specific IT and PD Improvements.
the retention of a sustainable industry: preparation for this
eventuality will increase our benefit from this opportunity.
• The repowering of onshore and offshore wind turbines will
contribute over 25GW to 2050
• The potential economic value of electricity generated by wind
could reach almost €15 billion by 2050
• Onshore and offshore wind could create 20,000 direct instal-
lation and O&M jobs by 2040. Offshore wind represents a
significantly greater employment opportunity than onshore
wind post-2025
• The wind industry is expected to hit a peak annual investment
of between €6 billion and €12 billion by 2040. Wind has a
cumulative Investment potential of €100 - €200 billion in 2050
• Onshore and Offshore wind represent a significant carbon
abatement opportunity - Wind could abate between 400 and
450 Mt of CO2 by 2050
CONCLUSIONS
This study finds that the planned offshore projects LCOEs are likely
to be roughly 20% lower by FC 2020 than they would be if installed
in 2015, if the expected technological innovation, increased global
competition among OSW industry supply chain, and industry-
wide efficiencies materialize as anticipated. Moreover, anticipated
continuous technological development between FC 2020 and FC
2025 can lower costs by a further, albeit smaller amount (roughly
-6%).
With action, offshore wind can further benefit from cost reduc-
tion strategies that are inherently local (predevelopment, policy,
and infrastructure). The analyses demonstrate that the following
PD optimization and IT improvement actions can lower the LCOE
by an additional third, and have other significant if not quantifiable
impacts. These actions include:
1. Providing a high degree of site characterization for early
projects and thereby reduce DEVEX and the cost of devel-
opment capital.
2. Facilitating through policy revenue contracts that substan-
tially reduce risk to lenders.
3. Creating market visibility that draws greater competition
6 | Stavros Philipp Thomas et al.

7. among suppliers and contractors and draws a different class
of investor to offshore projects.
4. Develop policies related to siting and offshore transmission
that support OSW projects.
5. Developing the infrastructure to reduce costs, including both
port facilities and a trained workforce.
6. Identify key issues and conduct structured problem solving
to investigate reliable solutions.
7. Proactively suggest new value-creating ideas to business and
stakeholders.
8. Establish a comprehensive research programme to constantly
improve the technical and economic performance of ocean
energy conversion devices, which will serve as a backbone for
the industry’s advancement.
9. Develop installation, operation and maintenance methodolo-
gies to provide further cost reduction.
10. Integrate previously mapped ocean resources and transmis-
sion capacity potentials in Europe through coordinated cam-
paigns and to develop spatial planning tools
The impact of these IT interventions and Project Development
improvements varies greatly in both quantity and type. By as-
sessing the meteorological, water and environmental and ground
conditions of potential project sites, the industry as a whole, can
achieve a reduction in LCOE (-1.3%). Although this LCOE reduc-
tion is relatively modest, there are possibly larger but unquantifi-
able benefits that can accrue the state from these actions.
The impact of learning by doing reduces LCOE from 1% to
2.6% as scale grows. Policy interventions that substantially reduce
revenue and volume risk can reduce LCOE by 15%; setting and
committing to a pipeline of projects can have an even greater
impact (up to 25% reduction in LCOE).
The proposed IT interventions and PD-PP improvements do
not come without cost. Although the ratepayer impact of the
economic crisis and unstable framework is beyond the scope of this
study, the team estimated the cost of implementing many of these
interventions. Designing and implementing policy interventions
results in personnel costs as well as opportunity costs (financial and
political). The analyses suggest that investing in the appropriate
policies can have tremendous pay-off. Technology innovation
remains a crucial driver for the potential level of deployment of
wind energy.
The impediments to greater deployment of wind energy are not
trivial. They range from the rate of infrastructure development and
access to finance, to difficulties in getting or retaining planning
permission and social acceptance. A number of required near
term policy and infrastructure related actions are identified in the
roadmap. Many actions have already begun, and are responding to
well articulated calls for a more coherent and coordinated approach
to addressing existing barriers to deployment. The development
of such an approach will enable us to meet our near term targets,
and put us on the path to achieving, and reaping the benefits of,
the long term deployment scenarios envisaged in this roadmap.
Volume X August 2015 | This is a part of a confidential work | 7

8. I Table 1 Risk-consequence illustration for wind energy projects
Possible risk factors Consequence Proposed Solution
The resourcing constraints of manufacturers. The lack of experienced staff could risk the
quality of manufacture and testing.
Third-party inspection services during manu-
facture and inspection will help meet specifi-
cations and deadlines.
Equipment survival in offshore environments. Equipment might have a reduced life span. Operation and Maintenance metrologies and
Strategic improvements .
Lack of experience of offshore structures
(fixed or floating) and foundations
There is a danger of over or under design,
leading to unplanned project costs or even
failure.
Staff training and critical thinking improvement
via experiences.
New designs are required, for example in-
creased turbine size or device prototype.
The lack of experienced staff could risk design
quality.
Testing of components, including turbine
blades and converters improvements through
research and testing.
I Table 2 Roadmap Strategic Approach
Key Themes Issues Addressed Wind Vision Study Scenario Roadmap Action Areas*
Collaboration to reduce wind
costs through wind technology
capital and operating cost reduc-
tions, increased energy capture,
improved reliability, and develop-
ment of planning and operating
practices for cost effective wind
integration.
Continuing declines in wind
power costs and improved reliabil-
ity are needed to improve market
competition with other electricity
sources.
Levelized cost of electricity reduc-
tion trajectory of 24% by 2020,
33% by 2030, and 37% by 2050
for land-based wind power tech-
nology and 22% by 2020, 43% by
2030, and 51% by 2050 for off-
shore wind power technology to
substantially reduce or eliminate
the near- and mid-term incremen-
tal costs of the Study Scenario.
• Wind Power Resources and Site
Characterization • Wind Plant
Technology Advancement • Sup-
ply Chain, Manufacturing, and
Logistics • Wind Power Perfor-
mance, Reliability, and Safety •
Wind Electricity Delivery and In-
tegration • Wind Siting and Per-
mitting • Collaboration, Education,
and Outreach • Workforce Devel-
opment • Policy Analysis
Collaboration to increase market
access to U.S. wind resources
through improved power system
flexibility and transmission expan-
sion, technology development,
streamlined siting and permitting
processes, and environmental
and competing use research and
impact mitigation.
Continued reduction of deploy-
ment barriers as well as en-
hanced mitigation strategies to re-
sponsibly improve market access
to remote, low wind speed, off-
shore, and environmentally sensi-
tive locations.
Capture the enduring value of
wind power by analyzing job
growth opportunities, evaluating
existing and proposed policies,
and disseminating credible infor-
mation.
• Supply Chain, Manufacturing,
and Logistics • Collaboration, Ed-
ucation, and Outreach • Work-
force Development • Policy Anal-
ysis
Levelized cost of electricity reduc-
tion trajectory of 24% by 2020,
33% by 2030, and 37% by 2050
for land-based wind power tech-
nology and 22% by 2020, 43% by
2030, and 51% by 2050 for off-
shore wind power technology to
substantially reduce or eliminate
the near- and mid-term incremen-
tal costs of the Study Scenario
Wind deployment sufficient to en-
able national wind electricity gen-
eration shares of 1020% by 2030,
and 35% by 2050.
A sustainable and competitive re-
gional and local wind industry
supporting substantial domestic
employment. Public benefits from
reduced emissions and consumer
energy cost savings.
Wind Power Resources and Site
Characterization • Wind Plant
Technology Advancement • Sup-
ply Chain, Manufacturing, and Lo-
gistics • Wind Electricity Delivery
and Integration • Wind Siting and
Permitting • Collaboration, Educa-
tion, and Outreach • Policy Analy-
sis
8 | Stavros Philipp Thomas et al.

9. I Table 3 Availability Levels on several European offshore wind power plants
Project Capacity of each turbine
(MW)
Average distance from
shore (km)a
Recorded Availability (%) Comments
Barrow—UK 8 3 67% The low availability is due
to a number of wind tur-
bine faults, mainly genera-
tor bearings and rotor ca-
ble faults combined with
low access to the site be-
cause of high waves
Kentish Flats—UK 3 9 87% Availability was relatively
low mainly due to faults on
generator bearings and ro-
tor cables for the slip ring
unit and gearbox failures
North Hoyle—UK 2 8 87.4% Availability was mainly af-
fected by gearbox bearing
faults and chipped teeth,
resulting in gearbox re-
placements. It should
be noted that gearbox re-
placement was delayed by
several months as no spe-
cialist vessels were avail-
able. Other major com-
ponent failures include ro-
tor cable faults, circuit
breaker issues etc
Scroby Sands—UK 2 3 83.8% Technical Availability only
suffered during November
due to a high number of
waiting on weather days
which delayed returning
turbines to service follow-
ing the generator replace-
ment work
a
The data presented in this table are provided from the International Renewable Energy Agency: IRENA.
Volume X August 2015 | This is a part of a confidential work | 9