More Related Content Similar to Deloitte Dbriefs webcast - Real estate expectations and market realities in 2019 (20) Deloitte Dbriefs webcast - Real estate expectations and market realities in 20191. Jim Berry, Audit & Assurance Partner, Deloitte & Touche LLP
George Ratiu, Managing Director, Housing & Commercial Research, National Association of Realtors
Matt Kimmel, Principal, Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics LLP
Ken Riggs, President, Situs RERC
February 5, 2019
Real estate expectations and
market realities in 2019
The Dbriefs Real Estate series
2. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2
• Introduction
• Economy/investment environment
• The Property Markets
• The Capital Markets and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Outlook
• Q&A
Agenda
3. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3
Polling question #1
What is your view of the state of the economy?
• Hitting on all cylinders—full speed ahead
• Continued slow to modest growth expected
• Touch and go—still trying to get its bearings
• Weak—would see little/no growth without Fed support
• Downturn likely this year
• Don’t know/Not applicable
4. Expectations and Market Realities in Real Estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4
The economy/investment
environment
5. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 5
2018 Global GDP growth
• 3.7% economic growth in 2018
projected by the IMF in October
2018
• ECB remained committed to its
plan to scale back its bond-buying
program
• Economic growth in EU was broad-
based; Brexit fears did not lead to
a dramatic decline in the UK’s
economy, but its performance over
2017 remained below the IMF’s
expectations
• Asian economies continued to
show stronger growth than the EU,
even though China’s momentum
slowed down
• Although the US imposed tariffs on
Canadian steel, the US, Canada
and Mexico reached a multilateral
agreement in October to update
NAFTA
Source: 2018 forecast by Economist Intelligence Unit, based on Haver
Analytics data.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Percent
6. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 6
U.S. Economic growth
• Buoyed by tax cuts and increased
government spending, real GDP
grew 2.2% in the first quarter of
2018, 4.2% in the second quarter
and 3.5% in the third quarter
• As the economy approaches its
10th year of expansion, the pace
of economic growth in the first
nine months of 2018 was the
fastest in a decade
• Business investments picked up
amid pro-growth regulatory
environment and lower corporate
tax rates
• International trade remained a
major contributor to economic
activity even amid growing trade
disputes with China, the EU and
Canada
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 3Q 2018.
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Percent
7. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 7
The employment situation
• Payroll employment recorded a net
increase of 2.64 million new
positions through 2018
• Private service-providing industries
remained the driver of
employment growth in 2018,
especially in education and health
services, professional and business
services and leisure and hospitality
• As of the third quarter of 2018,
average weekly earnings of private
employees increased 3.1% from
the prior year
• Unemployment declined from
4.1% in the first quarter to 3.9%
in December 2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), December 2018.
Unemployment rate
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Government
Other services
Leisure & hospitality
Education & health services
Prof & business services
Financial activities
Information
Trade, transportation & utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining & logging
Source: BLS, December 2018.
2018 Payroll Employment Growth by Sector (SA, '000)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Percent
8. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 8
Labor force participation rate
• The LFPR held steady in 2018
• The rate has been steadily
declining from a high of 67.1% in
the late ‘90s and 65.9% before the
Great Recession, and was about
62.9% for the past three years
• The number of Americans
employed part-time for economic
reasons declined from 5.1 million
in the first quarter to 4.7 million by
end of the year
• Average number of employees jobs
for other opportunities rose to 35.8
million during the January to
November timeframe, an 8.7%
increase from 2017 and a 13.9%
gain from 2016
Source: BLS, December 2018.
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
Percent
9. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 9
Housing
• US population grows over 8% in
the past decade
• Household formation returned
toward long-term trend in 2018 —
910,000 million new households
through September, keeping
demand for housing strong
• Supply lagged; new single-family
home sales averaged 623,000
units during the first 9 months of
2018, a 3.4% increase from 2017,
but the pace declined through the
year
• The supply of existing homes
continued tightening in 2018, with
inventory ranging from 3.5 months
in March to 3.9 in November, still
below the 6-7-month long-term
equilibrium
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC), October 2018.
Source: National Association of REALTORS®, November 2018.
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Sales(Thousands)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Months
10. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10
Housing
• Existing-home sales fell to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of
5.15 million by the end of
September, down from 5.38 million
in January 2018
• The pace of price appreciation
reflected slowing sales activity, due
to declining affordability
• The Housing Affordability Index,
which peaked at 215.1 in January
2013, recorded a value of 144.0 in
November 2018, a 33.1% drop
from its peak
• The median price of existing
homes reached $258,100 in
September 2018, a 4.2% increase
YoY
• The subpar supply of new homes
coming to market added a double
whammy to affordability, as
construction faced rising labor and
materials costs
Source: National Association of Realtors, October 2018.
Source: National Association of Realtors, October 2018.
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Sales(Millions)
125
145
165
185
205
225
245
265
285
Price($Thousands)
11. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 11
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Percent
CPI All Items Core CPI
Inflation and the Fed
• Consumer prices rose an average
of 2.5% YOY during the first nine
months of 2018
• Core inflation spent most of the
year above the Fed’s target of
2.0%, averaging 2.1% for the first
nine months of 2018 the cost of
housing component of CPI rose
3.3%
• With unemployment dropping
below 4.0%, the Federal Reserve
(Fed) continued scaling back its
quantitative easing
• The FOMC raised the funds target
rate by 25 bps in March, June,
September and December
Source: BLS, November 2018.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, November 2018.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Percent
Fed Funds Target Rate 10-Year Treasury Yield
12. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 12
Polling question #2
What is your view of the current state of commercial real estate market?
• Robust transaction volume and price appreciation continues
• Gradual slowing of deal volume and price increase
• Flattening or sluggish transaction volume and pricing
• Uncertainty
• Deceleration on the way
• Don’t know/Not applicable
13. Expectations and Market Realities in Real Estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 13
The property markets
14. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
$Billion
Apartment Hotel Industrial
Office Retail Overall
Commercial property transaction volume
• YoY, total transaction volume
increased 20% YoY
• Total office volume increased 15%
YoY in 3Q 2018
• The industrial sector remained
steady from a year ago, but
ramped up from 2Q 2017 by over
21%
• Volume of retail property sales
increased 30.7% YoY in 3Q 2018,
thanks to an increase in the sale of
malls
• Apartment volume decreased by
12% YoY through the first three
quarters of 2018
• As of 3Q 2018, the trailing 12-
month average transaction volume
for all hotels was $33.8 billion
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
15. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 15
Commercial property prices
• The Real Capital Analytics
Commercial Property Price Indices
(RCA CPPI) rose 2.3% in 3Q 2018
from 2Q 2018. The national all-
property index was up 7.2% in 3Q
2018 from one year prior
• PPSF for the overall office market
increased 18% YoY
• PPSF for the overall industrial
market increased 17% YoY
• PPSF for the overall retail sector in
the first three quarters of 2018
increased by just 1% YoY
• Apartment sector prices grew by
about 11% YoY through September
2018
• Hotel (all categories in major and
non-major markets) PPU increased
by approximately 10% YoY in 3Q
2018
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
National All-Property Apartment
Retail Industrial
Office
16. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 16
Commercial property cap rates
• Office sector reached their pre-GFC
low of 6.5% in 2016 and have
increased only slightly in recent
quarters to 6.6% in 3Q 2018
• Industrial cap rates remained near
their record lows in 3Q 2018,
increasing 10 bps YoY to 6.5%
• Average retail cap rates remained
stable in the 6.5% range
• Apartment cap rates decreased
slightly to an average of 5.5% in
the first three quarters of 2018
from an average of 5.6% over the
same period in 2017
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Percent
Office Industrial Retail Apartment
17. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 17
Polling question #3
Which property type do you view as offering the most favorable investment
opportunity based on recent performance and market fundamentals?
• Office
• Industrial/Warehouse
• Multifamily
• Retail
• Hotel
• Don’t know/Not applicable
18. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 18
Office sales volume and pricing
• Office property transactions totaled
$34.3 billion in the first 3 quarters
of 2018
• CBD PPSF had the largest growth,
over 38%; Suburban PPSF
increased 8% YoY
• Cap rates for the overall office
sector reached their pre-GFC low
of 6.5% in 2016 and have
increased only slightly in recent
quarters to 6.6% in 3Q 2018
• CBD cap rates increased from
5.2% to 5.4% QoQ in 3Q 2018 but
are down 60 bps YoY
• Suburban cap rate have hovered
around 6.9% for three years
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AveragePPSF($)
Volume($Billions)
Office property volume and pricing
Volume Price
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Percent
Office property cap rate
19. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 19
Office property fundamentals
• In 3Q 2018, 12-month net
absorption totaled 67.7 million
SF, the highest level in a year (a
19% increase YoY)
• 12-month net completions were
56.1 million SF, a YoY decline of
1.8%; net completions over the
past two years have outpaced
post-recession annual averages
• Annual rent growth has been
declining since 2015 in the office
sector and stands at 2.2% YoY as
of 3Q 2018.
Source: CoStar Market Analytics (www.costar.com), 3Q 2018.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
VacancyRate(%)
Absorption/Completion(Millionssf)
Net Absorption Net Completions
Vacancy Rent Growth (YoY)
20. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 20
Industrial sales volume and pricing
• The transaction volume of
industrial assets during the first
three quarters of 2018 remained
steady YoY, but ramped up over
21% from 2Q 2018
• Average PPSF rose by 17% YoY to
$95 in 3Q 2018
• Industrial cap rates remained near
their record lows in 3Q 2018,
increasing 10 bps YoY to 6.5%
• The warehouse cap rate remained
near its record low at 6.3% though
it increased 10 bps both QoQ and
YoY
• Flex space cap rate increased 10
bps both QoQ and YoY to 7.0%
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Industrial property volume and pricing
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
AveragePPSF($)
Volume($Billions)
Volume Price
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Percent
Industrial property cap rate
21. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 21
Industrial property fundamentals
• In 3Q 2018, YoY rent growth
dipped below 6.0% for the first
time in three years; however, rent
growth is still near record-low
levels
• In 3Q 2018, 12-month net
absorption totaled 239.8 million
SF, the lowest level in four years
and a nearly 10% decline YoY
• In 3Q 2018, industrial’s vacancy
rate reached another record low
of 4.8%
Source: CoStar Market Analytics (www.costar.com), 3Q 2018.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
VacancyRate(%)
Absorption/Completions(Millionssf)
Net Absorption Net Completions
Vacancy Rent Growth (YoY)
22. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 22
Retail sales volume and pricing
• Sales in the retail and food service
industry are up 5.4% since 2017,
greater than the 3.8% increase in
the previous year
• Retail property sales totaled $63.8
billion YTD as of 3Q 2018, a 30.7%
increase from the same period in
2017
• Cap rates for retail have hovered
around 6.5% since 1Q 2016
• Cap rates for shops and centers
fluctuated around 6.0% and 7.0%,
respectively
• Consistency among capitalization
rates should imply that the retail
market is stable at the moment
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Retail property volume and pricing
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Retail property cap rate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
AveragePPSF($)
Volume($Billions)
Shops Volume Centers Volume Shops Price Centers Price
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Percent
Centers Shops
23. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 23
Retail property fundamentals
• Vacancy rates within the national
overall retail market decreased
slightly since 1Q 2017, down 20
bps from 4.7% to 4.5%
• Net absorption was approximately
14.2 million square feet in 3Q
2018, a 2% decrease YoY.
• Net completions declined by 50%
YoY to 8.8 million square feet in 3Q
2018
Source: CoStar Market Analytics (www.costar.com), 3Q 2018.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
VacancyRate(%)
Absorption/Completions(Millionssf)
Net Absorption Net Completions
Vacancy Rent Growth (YoY)
24. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 24
Apartment sales volume and pricing
• Apartment property sales totaled
$120.1 billion through 3Q 2018
• Pricing for apartment properties
has increased approximately 11
percent YoY through September
2018
• Cap rates decreased slightly to an
average of 5.5% in the first three
quarters of 2018 from an average
of 5.6% over the same period in
2017
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Apartment property volume and pricing
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Apartment property cap rate
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
AveragePPU($Thousands)
Volume($Billions)
Volume Price
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Percent
25. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 25
Apartment property fundamentals
• Annual effective rent growth
was 2.7% in third quarter 2018,
a decline from 2.9% in the prior
year and approximately half of
the rate of growth of 5.1% at
the end of 2015
• The vacancy rate remained
steady at 4.7% in 3Q 2018.
Source: CoStar Market Analytics (www.costar.com), 3Q 2018.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Percent
ThousandsofUnits
Net Absorption Net Completions Vacancy Rent Growth (YoY)
26. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 26
Hotel sales volume and pricing
• Overall hotel volume was $27.5
billion in the first three quarters of
2018, a 27% increase YoY
• Hotel transaction volume in the six
top major markets has slowed by
approximately 10%
• 12-month trailing PPU reached
$153,000, a 10% increase
• Nationwide cap rates for limited-
service hotels were at 8.9% vs. a
7.7% average for full-service
hotels
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Hotel property volume and pricing
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Hotel property cap rate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
AveragePPSU($Thousands)
Volume($Billions)
Full-Service Volume Limited-Service Volume
Full-Service Price Limited-Service Price
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
Percent
Full-Service Limited-Service All Hotel
27. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 27
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
AverageDailyRate($)
Occupancy(%)
Occupancy ADR
Hotel property fundamentals
• Through 3Q 2018, YTD
occupancy was approximately
67.7%
• ADR increased slightly to $130,
about a 2.5% increase
• Both occupancy and ADR
provided a 3.1% lift in revenue
per available room (RevPAR) to
approximately $88
Source: CBRE Hotels’ Americas Research, STR, 3Q 2018.
Note: Shaded area reflects forecast rates.
28. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 28
Property type forecast summary
Property
type
Outlook for 2019
Office
• Solid job growth and low unemployment likely to lead to strong demand; vacancy rate expected to decline
• Lack of newer, first-tier properties and nominal new construction may lead to slightly increasing rents in
desired submarkets
• It will likely be more challenging to find the best-valued office markets
• Structural changes to the office market (space optimization, technology) present headwinds for the sector
Industrial
• Most favorable near-term fundamentals of all the main property types
• Vacancy rates expected to remain near record lows for warehouse and data centers
• A rise in new business formation of small manufacturing companies that sell their goods via e-commerce will
likely increase demand in the flex sector
• Pricing likely to be inflated due to the strong demand
Retail
• Fundamentals should improve, along with rising incomes and stronger household balance sheets
• Modest growth, with rents increasing by about 1.5% over the year, as fears in the retail industry subside
• Capital appreciation expected to increase over the next year
• Structural changes to the sector, including e-commerce, oversupply of space, shifting consumer shopping
patterns and grocery delivery chains, present long-term challenges across all types of retail
Apartment
• Outlook appears to be steady in the short term, with continued investor appetite and rising property values
• Overall average cap rates expected to stabilize or possibly increase in 2019
• Given the transaction volume and pricing, apartments will likely continue to be a preferred property type for
investors
• A shift on the demand side with renters turning into homebuyers could have a major impact on this sector
Hotel
• GDP growth, consumer confidence and disposable income levels will likely provide strength and stability to
the hotel sector
• Supply growth will stall; it appears that supply growth has peaked,
• ADR growth is forecast to grow at levels just above inflation
• RevPAR is expected to grow at the lowest rate since the recovery began in 2010
29. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 29
Polling question #4
How do you view the outlook for capital availability for commercial real estate in
2018 versus last year?
• Tighter standards and less availability
• Same standards and availability
• Expanding capital reaching out to riskier positions
• Too much capital resulting in broad-market aggressive pricing
• Don’t know/not applicable
30. Expectations and Market Realities in Real Estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 30
The capital markets
and CRE outlook
31. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 31
The capital markets and CRE outlook
16%
• Investment environment & Volatility
• Capital Flows and market rational behavior
• CRE Return Characteristic and outlook
32. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 32
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
3Q 07 3Q 09 3Q 14 3Q 18
Rating
Stock Bond Cash CRE
Situs RERC historical ratings of investment alternatives
Source: Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
33. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 33
What do the financial markets tell us?
16%
Market Indexes YTD6 1-Year
Trailing
3-Year
Trailing
5-Year
Trailing
10-Year
Trailing
15-Year
Trailing
Consumer Price Index1
1.23% 2.27% 2.00% 1.53% 1.42% 2.08%
10-Year Treasury Bond2
3.05% 2.33% 2.06% 2.64% 3.85% 3.96%
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.3
6.56% 20.76% 20.49% 14.57% 12.22% 9.97%
Nasdaq Composite4
12.18% 23.87% 20.31% 16.36% 14.47% 10.55%
NYSE Composite4
1.60% 7.15% 10.11% 6.34% 5.68% 5.76%
S&P 5003
7.82% 17.91% 17.31% 13.95% 11.97% 9.65%
NPI5
5.27% 7.16% 7.75% 9.57% 6.42% 8.97%
NFI ODCE5
5.75% 7.71% 7.83% 9.71% 4.62% 7.28%
NAREIT Index
(Equity REITs)3 1.78% 4.31% 8.97% 9.57% 7.77% 9.63%
1Based on the published data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (seasonally-adjusted).
2Based on Average End-of-Day T-Bond Rates.
3Based on Total Return Index, and includes the Dividend Yield.
4Based on Price Index, and does not include the Dividend Yield.
5NCREIF Total Return, composed of Capital and Income Returns.
6Year-to-date (YTD) averages are not compounded annually except for CPI and NAREIT.
Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve Board, S&P, Dow Jones, NCREIF, NAREIT, compiled by Situs RERC, current as of 3Q 2018.
34. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 34
What do the financial markets tell us?
16%
• 2018 was the worst year for the Dow in a decade; the S&P 500 tumbled to
about 5,000 (down 4.38% for the year) and the Nasdaq fell to below 6,600
• In December of 2018, the two-year and 10-year Treasury spread was the
narrowest since 2007
• As of 3Q 2018, YTD returns for CRE, as measured by the NPI, were roughly
250 bps lower than the S&P 500 and 130 bps less than the Dow
• The NFI-ODCE was just over 200 bps lower than the S&P 500 and only 81 bps
lower than the Dow in YTD in 3Q 2018
• YTD in 3Q 2018 spreads between CRE and Moody’s Aaa and Baa have
averaged 400 basis points (bps) and 320 bps, respectively
35. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 35
Situs RERC capital availability & discipline ratings
Sources: Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
Situs RERC availability & discipline of equity capital
Situs RERC availability & discipline of debt capital
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Rating
Equity Availability Equity Discipline
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Rating
Debt Availability Debt Discipline
36. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 36
LTV, DSCR and Dry Powder
16%
• LTV ratios have generally trended downwards in the recent year, with the
average LTV in 2018 at 61% for commercial properties (office, industrial and
retail) and 66% for multifamily
• The DSCR ratio for commercial assets has been on an increasing trend in the
recent years, with the ratios averaging 1.79 in 2018 for commercial assets
and 1.50 for multifamily
• Private equity real estate funds had $180 billion of dry powder as of
September 2018, with $70 billion allocated to North America-focused funds
Sources: Real Capital Analytics and NREI.
37. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 37
51%
28%
11%
2%
1%
4%
1% 2%
Private Equity
REITs
Pension Funds
Life Insurance Companies
Commercial Banks
Corporations
Foreign Investors
Government, GSE & Others
CRE capital universe
Source: Federal Reserve Board, 3Q 2018. Sources: NAREIT, NCREIF, RCA, compiled by Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
Fixed-Income Lender Composition
U.S. - Chartered Depository Institutions
CMBS, CDO and other ABS
Life Insurance Companies
Foreign Banking Offices in U.S.
Govt. Sponsored Entities
Other
2%
50%
7%
17%
12%
12%
Institutional Equity Investor Composition
38. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 38
3Q 2018 investor composition
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 3Q 2018.
Note: Data reflect first three quarters of each year.
19%
19%
10%
47%
3%
2%
6%
20%
25%
43%
5%
1%
Cross-Border
Inst'l/Eq Fund
Listed/REITs
Private
User/other
Unknown
Dispositions
Acquisitions
39. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 39
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Percent
Recession Treasury
Historical 10-year Treasurys
Sources: Federal Reserve, 3Q 2018.
40. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 40
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
3Q 2015 3Q 2016 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2020
Percent
Lower Case Base Case Higher Case
Situs RERC Treasury forecast
Sources: Federal Reserve, Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
41. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 41
Situs RERC rate spreads vs NPI spreads over 10-year Treasurys
Sources: Federal Reserve, Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
SpreadBasisPoints
Recession NPI-10YRT RERC GI-10YRT
42. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 42
Situs RERC price1 and value2 indexes
1 Price index combines capital expenditures and capital returns.
2 Value index represents capital returns only.
Price index from 1Q 1990 to 3Q 2018 = 131.22%. Value index from 1Q 1990 to 3Q 2018 = 24.88%.
Sources: NCREIF, Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
NPIIndexValues
Recession Price Index Value Index
43. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 43
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -
Est.
2019 -
Est.
2020 -
Est.
Percent
Cash Flow Rate CapEx Appprec./Deprec Total Return
Situs RERC cash flow, capital appreciation, capital expenditures
and total return forecasts (base case scenario)
Sources: NPI-ODCE, Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
Note: The total return forecast is Situs RERC's proprietary model based on Situs RERC data and data from the NCREIF
Property Index (NPI-ODCE) and is for leveraged, institutional-grade properties. Total returns are derived from an income
component and a capital appreciation/depreciation component. Shaded area reflects Situs RERC's outlook for the base case
scenario for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
44. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 44
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Percent
Income Capital Total
Situs RERC U.S. industrial total return forecast – (base case)
Sources: NPI-ODCE, Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
Note: The total return forecast is Situs RERC's proprietary model based on Situs RERC data and data from the NCREIF
Property Index (NPI-ODCE) and is for leveraged, institutional-grade properties. Total returns are derived from an income
component and a capital appreciation/depreciation component. Shaded area reflects Situs RERC's outlook for the base case
scenario for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
45. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 45
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percent
Income Capital Total
Situs RERC U.S. retail total return forecast – (base case)
Sources: NPI-ODCE, Situs RERC, 3Q 2018.
Note: The total return forecast is Situs RERC's proprietary model based on Situs RERC data and data from the NCREIF
Property Index (NPI-ODCE) and is for leveraged, institutional-grade properties. Total returns are derived from an income
component and a capital appreciation/depreciation component. Shaded area reflects Situs RERC's outlook for the base case
scenario for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
46. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 46
Strengths
• Strong foundation for the economy
• Rational capital relative to prior cycles
• Supported construction activity for most sectors
• Low volatility/stable income
• Attractive spreads over Treasury rates
• Values vs. Prices are reasonably supported
Challenges
• Volatile interest rates
• Political Volatility U.S. and Global
• Deep into the expansion cycle
• Declining value or price appreciation
• Structural trends affecting property types
2019 investment outlook for CRE
47. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 47
Polling question #5
To what extent do you expect commercial real estate values to change over the
next 12 months?
• More stress (-15% to -2%)
• Minimal change (-2% to +2%)
• Moderate improvement (+2% to +5%)
• Robust strengthening (+5% to +15%)
• Don’t know/Not applicable
48. 48Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019
Question and answer
49. 49Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019
Join us February 26 at 2:00 p.m. ET
as our Financial Services series
presents:
Disrupting compliance
management in a hyper-
connected world
50. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 50
Eligible viewers may now download
CPE certificates.
Click the CPE icon in the dock at the
bottom of your screen.
CPE
51. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 51
Contact information
George Ratiu
Director, Quantitative & Commercial
Research
National Association of Realtors
gratiu@realtors.org
Matt Kimmel
Principal, Real Estate
Deloitte Transactions & Business
Analytics LLP
mkimmel@deloitte.com
Ken Riggs, CFA, CRE, MAI
President
Situs RERC
riggs@rerc.com
Jim Berry
Audit & Assurance Partner
Deloitte & Touche LLP
jiberry@deloitte.com
Connect with me on LinkedIn
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52. 52Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Expectations and market realities in real estate 2019
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