This document analyzes the potential success of teams in the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. It ranks the teams based on a prediction model that considers past World Cup performance from 1998-2014 and 2015-2017 qualifications, as well as hosting advantages and newcomer status. Germany, Brazil, Spain, Belgium, Argentina, and France are predicted to have the highest chances of success. Groups A, C, D and H are identified as particularly hard to predict due to the similar success percentages of the teams. The document predicts the teams most likely to advance from each group to the round of 16 and provides overall rankings predicting potential performance through the semi-finals and finals.

1. Who Will Challenge
the European Domination
in the FIFA World Cup 2018?

2. Introduction
FIFA World Cup is the biggest Football (Soccer) event in the world!
FIFA World Cup is a quadrennial international tournament contested by national teams. This event interests and attracts billions of people - male and female, young and old, from
every walk of life, and every corner of the world. Not only that, but the data for the World Cup is publicly available all the way back to 1930. So as data analysts, we saw this as a
great opportunity to put our analytical curiosity to work and deliver true World Cup insights to everyone.
We explored the achievements of the teams in the FIFA World Cup during the tournaments between 1930-2014, and the FIFA World Cup qualifications between 2015-2017.
Using an analytical approach, we will try to answer the following questions about the heritage and performance capabilities of the teams:
Who are the most stable teams in the last 20 years?
Which teams have disappointed the most during the years? Which teams are making the greatest progress?
Does the location of the tournament affect the results?
Can Latin American teams win in Europe? Were Latin American teams more successful when the World Cup was hosted in Latin America?
What were the results of the four best teams over the years, and which of them will be in the finals in 2018?
Which teams performed best during the FIFA World Cup qualifications during 2015-2017?
The analysis we did to answer these questions is the same foundational model we used to predict the potential success of the teams in the FIFA World Cup in Russia 2018.
In this article, and based on the data, we will predict the success of the teams
to win the World Cup 2018 in Russia.
1

3. We gathered public datasets from Kaggle with the World Cup results between 1930-2014, and the results of the FIFA World Cup qualifications between 2015 - 2017.
We analyze and present the findings using Sisense analytics and dashboards.
To sharpen our predictions, we included the chances of a given team to arrive at higher stages in the World Cup taking into account the Group structure that was
determined prior to the games. This includes the positions of the teams within Groups A-H in the World Cup 2018. The Group structure can increase or decrease
the chance of two teams to meet and influences their chance to move up in the tournament.
So, our analysis combines performance, the heritage of the teams, and the opportunities presented to them based on their positions in the structure of Groups A-H.
This analysis focuses on achievements at the team level, and not on the individual level.
In our predictions, we assume that "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts."
2
Methodology

4. Predictors for Success in the World Cup Russia 2018
1. FIFA World Cup 1998-2014 Scores (Points):
All the scores/points that the teams achieved in games during the past tournaments between 1998-2014. (Won = 3 points, Draw = 2 points, and Lost = 0 points).
2. FIFA World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017 Scores (Points):
All the scores/points that a given team achieved in FIFA World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017 with a relative regional success factor % included. (Won = 3 points, Draw = 2 points, and Lost = 0 points).
3. Success % in FIFA World Cup 1998-2014:
The success % was computed as the ratio between aggregated scores for a given team with potential scores based on the number of games they played.
4. Success % in FIFA World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017:
The success % was computed as the ratio between aggregated scores for a given team with potential scores for a given team.
5. Potential success in FIFA World Cup 2018:
Based on variables 3-4, we computed the overall potential success of a given team in FIFA World Cup 2018.
Our FIFA World Cup 2018 Success Prediction Model
Performance Heritage
Newcomer
Factor
Hosting Factor
Group A-H
Structure Setup
Qualification
Results (50%)
1998-2014
Results (50%)
Newcomer
Factor +35%
Hosting Factor
+20%
Group A-H
Structure Setup
3

5. Main Findings
Our model ranks the teams from 1 – 32 taking into account performance, heritage, hosting, and newcomer factors.
Table 1: Team Ranking from 1 – 32 where 1 is the highest and 32 is the lowest within the Group structure of A – H
Group A
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Uruguay2,18,33 61% 14
Sisense
Rank
Russia1,17,33 55% 21
Egypt2,17,34 55% 22
Saudi
Arabia
1,18,34 44% 32
Group B
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Spain3,20,36 81% 3
Sisense
Rank
Portugal3,19,35 70% 8
Morocco4,19,36 57% 17
Iran4,20,35 52% 29
Group C
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
France5,21,37 69% 9
Sisense
Rank
Denmark6,22,37 57% 19
Peru6,21,38 54% 24
Australia5,22,38 54% 26
Group D
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Argentina7, 23,39 73% 5
Sisense
Rank
Croatia8,23,40 57% 18
Iceland7,24,40 54% 23
Nigeria8,24,39 54% 25
Group E
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Brazil9,25,41 85% 2
Sisense
Rank
Switzerland9,26,42 70% 7
Costa Rica10,25,42 62% 13
Serbia10,26,41 52% 30
Group F
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Germany11,27,43 88% 1
Sisense
Rank
Mexico11,28,44 71% 6
Korea
Republic12,28,43 57% 20
Sweden12,27,44 53% 28
Group G
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Belgium13,29,45 74% 4
Sisense
Rank
England14,30,45 69% 10
Panama13,30,46 53% 27
Tunisia14,29,46 51% 31
Group H
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Senegal15,32,48 68% 11
Sisense
Rank
Colombia16,31,48 68% 12
Japan16,32,47 59% 15
Poland15,31,47 58% 16
4

6. A Deep Dive into Groups A-H
The most interesting Groups are A, C, D and H. In these Groups, the success % of most teams are almost equal. This means it is very hard to predict how the games will play out.
Group A, includes Team Russia (the host country), Team Uruguay (that has a fantastic heritage in previous World Cups with 2 wins and a 45% success % over the last 20 years),
Team Egypt (newcomers which have not participated in World Cup tournaments for the last 20 years), and Team Saudi Arabia (that achieved a very high performance ranking
during qualifications).
Considering all the factors and weighing in the Group structure, we predict that:
1. Team Uruguay, with a respectable heritage in previous World Cups, also has a chance to make rank 1 or 2 considering its overall success in the qualifications during the last years.
2. Team Egypt has a chance to rank 2 in Group A (as a newcomer with good success in qualifications, 75%).
3. Team Russia has a chance to beat the teams in Group A as the hosting country with its local audience, despite the results of their games over the last 3 years.
Group C: Team France is the strongest above all the others but the competition on rank 2 will be very strong between Teams Denmark, Peru and Australia because the success % is very similar.
Group D: Based on previous results, Team Argentina and Team Croatia will probably rank 1-2. But, they could lose their rank to the newcomer – Teams Iceland or Nigeria – which achieved great
results in the World Cup qualifications.
Group H: The most interesting group since the success % between all four teams is almost equal. Team Senegal and Team Columbia have a higher chance to reach Round 16 than
Team Japan and Team Poland. But this group can surprise us, and Team Poland and/or Team Japan may reach Round 16 instead of Teams Senegal and/or Columbia.
(A1 vs B2), (B1 vs A2), (C1 vs D2), (D1 vs C2), (E1
vs F2), (F1 vs E2), (G1 vs H2), (H1 vs G2)
(E1 or F2 or G1 or H2) vs (A1 or B2 or C1 or D2),
(F1 or E2 or H1 or G2) vs (B1 or A2 or D1 or C2)
(E1 or F2) vs (G1 or H2), (A1 or B2) vs (C1 or D2),
(F1 or E2) vs (H1 or G2), (B1 or A2) vs (D1 or C2)
(E1 or F2 or G1 or H2 or A1 or B2 or C1 or D2) vs
(F1 or E2 or H1 or G2 or B1 or A2 or D1 or C2)
Round 16: Quarter-final:
Semi-final: Final:
Who will make it to Round 16? The host country? A heritage team? A newcomer?
Or the team with the higher performance results during qualifications?
5

7. Table 2: Prediction Model Groups A, C, D, and H
6
The success % is very similar between the teams leaving room for surprises.
Performance - World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017 Heritage - World Cup 1998-2014
Group A
Group C
Group D
Rank
Uruguay
Russia
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
3
Host
9
6
18
26
8
18
29
33
16
39
14
40
53
14
6
9
61%
35%
33%
44%
61%
55%
55%
44%
14
21
22
32
19
5
2
Points
Games
Played
Success
%
Regional
Factor
Success %
Rank PointsGames Played Success
%
Success
%
Overall
Success %
Success %
1988-2014
Overall Success%
(including hosting
factor)
Overall
Predicted
Rank
Host Team
Advantage
Newcomers
54%
42%
67%
72%
77%
42%
75%
80%
20%
35%
45%
28%
7%
Argentina
Croatia
Iceland
Nigeria
4
11
9
7
18
12
10
8
28
24
22
17
4
11
26
25
16
14
73%
57%
37%
54%
73%
57%
54%
54%
5
18
23
25
53
23
12
52%
67%
73%
71%
75%
67%
73%
79%
35%
71%
48%
29%
Group H
Senegal
Colombia
Japan
Poland
4
6
3
7
8
18
18
10
75%
50%
78%
83%
18
27
42
25
31
21
20
37
5
8
17
6
68%
68%
59%
58%
68%
68%
59%
58%
11
12
15
16
8
15
16
6
83%
73%
86%
83%
35%
53%
63%
31%
33%
France
Denmark
Peru
Australia
8
12
5
5
10
12
20
22
77%
67%
73%
81%
23
24
30
48
5
17
33
25
12
10
69%
57%
37%
54%
69%
57%
54%
54%
9
19
24
26
46
17
8
77%
67%
50%
73%
35%
35%
61%
47%
27%

8. 7
In Groups B, E, F, and G, the success % is noticeably different. The model predicts that Team Spain and Team Portugal
from Group B will make it to Round 16, along with Teams Brazil and Switzerland from Group E,
Teams Germany and Mexico in Group F, and Teams Belgium and England in Group G.
Table 3: Prediction Model Groups B, E, F and G
Performance - World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017 Heritage - World Cup 1998-2014
Group B
Group E
Group F
Rank
Spain
Portugal
Morocco
Iran
3
4
10
2
10
10
8
18
28
27
15
42
6
10
43
42
22
17
3
9
81%
70%
57%
52%
81%
70%
57%
52%
3
8
17
29
45
25
4
5
Points
Games
Played
Success
%
Regional
Factor
Success %
Rank PointsGames Played Success
%
Success
%
Overall
Success %
Success %
1988-2014
Overall Success%
(including hosting
factor)
Overall
Predicted
Rank
Host Team
Advantage
Newcomers
93%
90%
63%
78%
93%
90%
71%
86%
68%
49%
44%
19%
Germany
Mexico
Korea Republic
Sweden
1
2
8
13
10
14
17
12
30
31
36
23
1
9
12
27
33
20
20
8
88%
71%
57%
53%
88%
71%
57%
53%
1
6
20
28
76
27
21
10
100%
74%
71%
64%
100%
97%
79%
64%
77%
45%
35%
42%
Group G
Belgium
England
Panama
Tunisia
2
5
8
1
10
10
14
8
93%
87%
48%
83%
28
26
20
20
13
8
50
12
21
9
74%
69%
35%
51%
74%
69%
53%
51%
4
10
27
31
20
32
3
93%
87%
71%
91%
35%
56%
51%
11%
Brazil
Switzerland
Costa Rica
Serbia
1
6
7
10
18
12
14
10
99%
86%
85%
70%
41
31
26
21
2
15
25
30
31
11
11
10
85%
70%
62%
52%
85%
70%
62%
52%
2
7
13
30
67
18
13
10
76%
86%
62%
70%
35%
72%
55%
39%
33%

9. Table 4: Potential Success Rankings
For the teams in the World Cup 2018 where 1 is the highest success potential,
and 32 is the lowest success potential in Round 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, and the Final.
8
Germany
Brazil
Spain
Portugal
Belgium
Argentina
France
England
Mexico
Switzerland
Senegal
Colombia
Uruguay
Croatia
Denmark
Russia
Japan
Poland
Morocco
Egypt
Iceland
Peru
Nigeria
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
88%
85%
81%
70%
74%
73%
69%
69%
71%
70%
68%
68%
61%
57%
57%
55%
59%
58%
57%
55%
54%
54%
54%
1
2
3
8
4
5
9
10
6
7
11
12
14
18
19
21
15
16
17
22
23
24
25
Stage National Team
Sisense Overall
Predicted Success %
Sisense
Overall Rank
Sisense
Predicted Rank
World Cup 2018
Semi Finals/
Finals
quater-
final
Round 16
round 16
potential

10. It's Always Good to Have Just Plain Luck
Reviewing the Group draw, Team Germany (in Group F) and Team Brazil (in Group E) seem to have an easier path to get to the Semi-finals than Team Spain (Group B),
Team Argentina (Group D), Team Portugal (Group B), and Team France (Group C). It just might be the luck of the draw here.
The Group draw creates an opportunity for Team Germany to rank 1 in Group F, and for Team Brazil to rank 1 in Group E. Indeed, if Teams Germany and Brazil don’t both
rank 1 or both rank 2 in their groups they will meet in Round 16 and one of them will go home before the Quarter-final, but if they both rank 1 in their Group they can meet
again only in the Final. Until the Semi-finals, Team Germany will not play against the strong teams such as Teams Brazil, Spain, Argentina, Portugal, and France. Team
Germany will probably meet Team England on its way to the Semi-finals.
So, in the Semi-finals, it appears that Team Spain will be playing against Team Germany.
In parallel, Team Brazil's path to the Semi-finals includes playing against the strongest teams like Team Belgium. Teams Brazil and Belgium will not meet the strongest teams
such as Teams Germany, Spain, Argentina, Portugal and France until the Semi-finals.
On the other hand, Teams Spain, Argentina, Portugal, and France will play against each other in the Quarter-final. That's not so lucky for them.
Which Teams Will Make it to Round 16?
Following the model predictions for 1) the Group phase, and 2) the Group structure and the individual team success % in previous years (performance), and
3) in FIFA World Cup 1998-2014 (heritage), these are the teams we predict will make it to Round 16:
Groups A-B: Teams Portugal and Spain are positioned to beat Teams Uruguay and Russia.
Groups C-D: Teams Argentina and France are positioned to beat Teams Denmark and Croatia.
Groups E-F: Teams Brazil and Germany are positioned to beat Teams Mexico and Switzerland.
Groups G-H: Teams Belgium and England are positioned to beat Teams Colombia and Senegal.
9

11. Our analysis
predicts an
interesting
World Cup!
Which Teams will Make it to the Quarter-final?
This prediction is more complex. In Groups A-B vs. Groups C-D, we expect that Team Portugal will beat Team France, and Team Spain will beat Team Argentina.
For Groups E-F vs. G-H, we expect that Team Germany will beat Team England, and Team Brazil will beat Team Belgium.
All four games are difficult matches, and all teams have a similar potential to win.
Each of the four teams has a chance to make it to the Semi-final! Based on the structural opportunity in Groups A-H, it is likely that Team Belgium or Team Brazil will meet
Team Portugal or Team France in the Semi-final. Team Germany is expected to meet Team Spain in the other Semi-final.
Which teams will make it to the Semi-final?
Based on the current ability of these teams, we expect that Teams Portugal, Spain, Germany, and Brazil will make it to the Semi-final rounds.
Who Will Win the World Cup in 2018?
Team Brazil and Team Germany will meet in the final. Team Germany has the highest chance to win the FIFA World Cup 2018.
Who will Challenge the European Teams?
Our prediction is that almost all the participating teams in the Quarter-final will be Europeans.
Still, the question remains, who will challenge the European teams?
1. Team Brazil and Team Argentina will challenge the European teams. They also have a chance to make it to the Quarter-final, or even higher.
2. Team Mexico and Team Colombia may be able to make it to the Quarter-final.
3. Team Senegal and Team Uruguay have a chance to make it to the Quarter-final.
4. Team Japan has a chance to make it to Round 16.
10

12. Interesting Stats: FIFA World Cup Historical Review
During 1930-2014 there were 20 World Cup Tournaments. The World Cup in Russia this year is #21. The number of teams participating in the World Cup increased from 13-16
national teams during 1930-1978 to 24 national teams during 1982-1994, and since 1998, there have been 32 national teams competing in the World Cup.
Graph 1: Number of National Teams Participating in the World Cup 1930-2014
11
TEAMS
32 TEAMS
24 TEAMS
16 TEAMS
15 TEAMS
13
in
Russia 2018
Brazil 2014
South Africa 2010
Germany 2006
South Korea 2002
France 1998
in
USA 1994
Italy 1990
Mexico 1986
Spain 1982
in
Argentina 1978
Germany 1974
Mexico 1970
England 1966
Chile 1962
Sweden 1958
Switzerland 1954
Italy 1934
in
France 1938
in
Brazil 1950
Uruguay 1930

13. Graph 2: World Cup Participation by Region (Numbers of Teams)
12
Europe Latin America & Caribbean North America Africa Asia & Pacific
Uruguay 1930
4 8 1
Italy 1934
12 2 1 1
France 1938
12 2 1
Brazil 1950
6 6 1
Switzerland 1954
12 3 1
Sweden 1958
12 4
Chile 1962
10 6
England 1966
10 5 1
Mexico 1970
9 5 1 1
Germany 1974
9 5 1 1
Argentina 1978
10 4 1 1
Spain 1982
14 6 2 2
Mexico 1986
14 5 1 2 2
Italy 1990 USA 1994
13 5 1
France 1998
15 7 1 5 4
South Korea 2002 Germany 2006
15 7 1
South Africa 2010
14 7 1 5 5
Brazil 2014
14 9 1
Russia 2018
14 8 5 5
14 5 1 2 2 3 2
15 7 55 4 41
4 4

14. Graph 3: World Cup Participation by Region (Percentages)
13
Between the years 1930 – 1978,
most of the participating teams
were from Europe (56%-60%) and
Latin America (25%-30%). Others
(12%) came from Asia and Africa.
Only in the last 20 years has the
World Cup tournaments included
more Asian and African teams up to
10 from only 4. Today, the share of
the World Cup participants from Asia
and Africa is up from 12% to 32%.
Uruguay 1930
31% 62% 8%
Italy 1934 France 1938
Brazil 1950 Switzerland 1954 Sweden 1958
Chile 1962 England 1966 Mexico 1970
Germany 1974 Argentina 1978 Spain 1982
Mexico 1986 Italy 1990 USA 1994
France 1998 South Korea 2002 Germany 2006
South Africa 2010 Brazil 2014 Russia 2018
75% 13% 13% 7%6% 6% 80%
46% 46%
63% 38%
56% 31% 6% 6%
58% 21% 4% 8% 8%
47% 22% 3% 16% 13%
44% 22% 3% 16% 16% 44% 28% 3% 13% 13%
total
54% 25% 2% 9% 9%44% 28% 16% 16%
47% 22% 3% 16% 13% 47% 22% 3% 13% 16%
58% 21% 4% 8% 8% 54% 21% 4% 13% 8%
63% 25% 6% 6% 58% 25% 8% 8%
75% 19% 75% 25%6%
63% 31% 6% 56% 31% 6%6%
8%
Europe Latin America & Caribbean North America Africa Asia & Pacific

15. Team Brazil is the highest winner of FIFA World Cup tournaments with 5 World Cups. Following Team Brazil are Team Germany and Team Italy with 4 World Cups each.
Teams Uruguay and Argentina took 2 World Cups each, and Teams England, France, and Spain took one. The most recent World Cup winner was Team Germany in 2014.
14
Number of Times a Team Made it to the Final
FIFA World Cup Winners 1930-2014
Europe
Latin America
Europe
Latin America
Europe
Europe
Europe
Latin America
Germany
Brazil
Italy
Argentina
Netherlands
France
Hungary
Uruguay
8
7
6
5
3
2
2
2
4
5
4
2
0
1
0
2
50%
71%
67%
40%
0%
50%
0%
100%
Region Team
# of
Times in
Finals
# of
Wins in
Finals
Finals
Success
%
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europe
Europeans Total
Latin America Total
% Europeans
% Latin America
Czechoslovakia
England
Spain
Sweden
Region Team
# of
Times in
Finals
# of
Wins in
Finals
Finals
Success
%
x51958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002
brazil
x41954, 1974, 1990, 2014
germany
x41934, 1938, 1982, 2006
italy
x21930, 1950
uruguay
x21978, 1986
argentina
x11966
england
x11998
france
x12010
spain
0
1
1
0
11
9
55%
45%
2
1
1
1
26
14
65%
35%
0%
100%
100%
0%
42%
64%
Table 5: World Cup Winners

16. Results of FIFA World Cup Finals 1930-2014
Although there were only 8 winning teams throughout the history of the games, there are 20 teams that reached the Finals. The teams that hosted the World Cup made it to the Final in
40% of the World Cup tournaments. In fact, 75% of these teams not only made it to the Final but also won the World Cup! (30% of all the hosting teams).
Table 6: World Cup Finals Results
15
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Total
%
1930
1934
1938
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
20
Uruguay
Italy
France
Brazil
Switzerland
Sweden
Chile
England
Mexico
Germany
Argentina
Spain
Mexico
Italy
USA
France
Japan
Germany
South Africa
Brazil
Uruguay
Italy
Italy
Uruguay
Germany
Brazil
Brazil
England
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
Italy
Argentina
Germany
Brazil
France
Brazil
Italy
Spain
Germany
4
2
4
2
3
5
3
4
4
2
3
3
3
1
3
3
2
5
1
1
Argentina
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Brazil
Hungary
Sweden
Czechoslovakia
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Netherlands
Germany
Germany
Argentina
Italy
Brazil
Germany
France
Netherlands
Argentina
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
8
40%
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
30%
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
World Cup # Year Place Losing Team Losing Team Goals Host Country in Final Host Country & WonWinning Team Winning Team Goals

17. Team Ranking from World Cup Tournaments 1930-2014
Table 7: Team Heritage Rankings 1930-2014
16
Teams with a flag are participating in the World Cup 2018 tournament.
Because of the qualification process, Italy and Netherlands are ranked 3 and 8 in the overall
ranking and didn't make it in to the World Cup. At the same time, Nigeria
did make it in because of regional quotas.
Brazil
Germany
Italy
Argentina
Spain
England
France
Netherlands
Uruguay
Sweden
Russia
Mexico
Belgium
Poland
Yugoslavia
Hungary
Portugal
Austria
Chile
Switzerland
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1-20
104
106
83
77
59
62
59
50
51
46
40
53
41
31
33
32
26
29
33
33
73%
69%
63%
61%
56%
53%
54%
62%
47%
44%
49%
35%
41%
54%
49%
50%
55%
46%
40%
39%
227
218
156
140
99
98
96
93
72
61
59
56
51
50
49
48
43
40
40
39
Team
1930-2014 Overall Ranking
Rank Games Played Success % Points
Czechoslovakia
Paraguay
USA
Romania
Denmark
Korea Republic
Croatia
Colombia
Costa Rica
Scotland
Cameroon
Nigeria
Bulgaria
Turkey
Japan
Ghana
Peru
Northern Ireland
Ireland
Ecuador
Rank
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
21-40
30
27
33
21
16
31
16
18
15
23
23
18
26
10
17
12
15
13
13
10
42%
38%
30%
46%
54%
26%
48%
43%
42%
28%
28%
33%
22%
53%
31%
42%
33%
36%
36%
43%
38
31
30
29
26
24
23
23
19
19
19
18
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
Team
1930-2014 Overall Ranking
Rank Games Played Success % Points

18. 17
Teams with a flag are participating in the World Cup 2018 tournament.
Teams Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Spain (the top 4 ranked teams) made it to the World Cup in Russia.
Teams Italy and Netherlands didn’t qualify, and this creates opportunities for newcomers.
Algeria
South Africa
Ivory Coast
Serbia
Morocco
Norway
Australia
Senegal
German DR
Greece
Saudi Arabia
Ukraine
Tunisia
Wales
Iran
Cuba
Slovakia
Slovenia
Korea DPR
Jamaica
Rank
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
41-60
13
9
9
10
13
8
13
5
6
10
13
5
12
5
12
3
4
6
7
3
31%
37%
37%
33%
26%
38%
23%
53%
44%
27%
21%
47%
19%
40%
17%
44%
33%
22%
19%
33%
12
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
4
4
4
4
3
Team
1930-2014 Overall Ranking
Rank Games Played Success % Points
Czech Republic
Bosnia-Herzegovina
New Zealand
Honduras
Israel
Angola
Egypt
Kuwait
Trinidad and Tobago
Bolivia
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Indonesia
Haiti
El Salvador
Congo DR
Canada
Togo
China
Rank
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
64-79
3
3
6
9
3
3
4
3
3
6
3
3
1
3
6
3
3
3
3
33%
33%
17%
11%
22%
22%
17%
11%
11%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Team
1930-2014 Overall Ranking
Rank Games Played Success % Points

19. Team Segmentation –
5 Distinct Segments Identified from 1930-1994 vs 1998-2014
18
Segments: Types 1-5
Our segmentation finds that Teams Brazil and Germany are stable teams. They have held ranks 1 and 2 for decades (see table Type 3: Stability). Teams improving their achievements during
both periods are Team Korea and Team Turkey. Team Korea jumped 33 ranks to rank 12 in 1998-2014 (see table Type 4: Moving Up). The successful newcomers are Team Croatia and Team
Japan that ranked 11 and 20 (see table Type 5: Newcomers). Team Austria and Team Russia moved down from their positions during 1998-2014 (see table Type 2: Moving Down). Team
Hungary and Team Czechoslovakia didn't make it at all to the World Cup tournaments during 1998-2014 (see table Type 5: Kicked out of the World Cup).
Korea Republic
Turkey
Greece
Australia
Denmark
Portugal
Paraguay
Colombia
Netherlands
Costa Rica
Nigeria
Mexico
USA
Iran
New Zealand
Switzerland
France
Belgium
Norway
12
23
32
33
17
10
16
21
3
25
26
9
18
42
46
15
5
13
39
33
21
21
16
13
12
12
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
6
5
4
3
type 4 Moving Up
1998-2014
Rank
Rank
Changes
Hungary
Peru
Northern Ireland
Wales
Cuba
Israel
Egypt
Kuwait
Bolivia
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Indonesia
Haiti
El Salvador
Congo DR
Canada
(49)
(36)
(35)
(23)
(20)
(14)
(13)
(10)
(9)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
type 1 Kicked out of the World Cup
1998-2014
Rank
Rank
Changes
Austria
Russia
Scotland
Bulgaria
Poland
Sweden
Saudi Arabia
Korea DPR
Romania
Honduras
Tunisia
Cameroon
Algeria
Uruguay
Italy
Ireland
Morocco
England
51
40
54
55
37
27
53
58
34
57
50
38
41
14
7
36
43
8
(36)
(33)
(31)
(31)
(24)
(18)
(16)
(15)
(14)
(11)
(10)
(9)
(7)
(6)
(4)
(4)
(4)
(3)
type 2 Moving Down
1998-2014
Rank
Rank
Changes
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
Spain
Chile
2
1
4
6
19
(1)
1
-
-
-
type 3 Stable
1998-2014
Rank
Rank
Changes Croatia
Japan
Ghana
Ecuador
South Africa
Ivory Coast
Serbia
Senegal
Ukraine
Slovakia
Slovenia
Jamaica
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Angola
Trinidad and Tobago
Togo
China
11
20
22
24
28
29
30
31
35
44
45
47
49
52
56
59
60
50
41
39
37
33
32
31
30
26
17
16
14
12
9
5
2
1
type 5 Newcomers
1998-2014
Rank
Rank
Changes

20. 19
Teams Success in the World Cup Depends on World Cup Tournament Location 1930-1994
The Regional Effect 1930-1994
45%
Tournament Location:
Latin America
1930-1994
57%
European Teams
Latin American Teams
Other Teams: 27%
52%
Tournament Location:
Europe
1930-1994
40%
European Teams
Latin American Teams
Other Teams: 20%
51%
Tournament Location:
Other
1930-1994
51%
European Teams
Latin American Teams
Other Teams: 30%

21. 20
Will there be a regional effect on the success of the teams in Russia 2018?
Latin American Teams were more successful when the World Cup Tournaments were hosted in Latin American countries with 57% success in 1930-1994 and 62% in 1998-2014,
European Countries had 40% success in 1930-2014 and 46% in 1994-2018.
European Teams were successful in Europe and in Latin America (57% and 55% success). Other teams (Asia and Africa Teams) were more successful when the World Cup was
hosted outside of Europe and Latin America with 34% success. When in Europe, they achieved only 23% success and in Latin America only 18%.
Teams Success in the World Cup Depends on World Cup Tournament Location 1998-2014
55%
Tournament Location: Latin America
1998-2014
62%
European Teams
Latin American Teams
Other Teams: 18%
57%
Tournament Location: Europe
1998-2014
46%
European Teams
Latin American Teams
Other Teams: 23%
50%
Tournament Location: Other
1998-2014
55%
European Teams
Latin American Teams
Other Teams: 34%
The Regional Effect 1998-2014

22. 21
Fierce Competition Between the Four Best Teams:
Brazil, Germany, Argentina, and Spain
In the past (1930-1994), Latin American Teams Brazil and Argentina were more successful than European Teams Germany and
Spain. However, in the last two decades, European Teams Germany and Spain beat the Latin American Teams Brazil and Argentina.
Table 8: Results Between the Four Best Teams 1930-2014
Four Highest Ranking Teams Review 1930-2014
12
15
13
10
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
Spain
7
7
3
2
2
4
4
2
3
4
6
6
19
25
11
10
15
14
19
17
64%
56%
33%
27%
23
25
13
8
1.6
1.7
0.8
1.0
1.3
0.9
1.5
1.7
Number of
Games Played Won Draw Lost For Against Success % Points Avg. For Avg. Against

23. 22
Four Highest Ranking Teams Review 1998-2014
6
1
2
3
Germany
Spain
Brazil
Argentina
3
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
1
2
13
1
3
1
6
0
7
6
56%
100%
50%
11%
10
3
3
1
2.2
1.0
1.5
0.3
1.0
-
3.5
2.0
Number of
Games Played Won Draw Lost For Against Success % Points Avg. For Avg. Against
Four Highest Ranking Teams Review 1930-1994
10
10
9
9
Brazil
Argentina
Germany
Spain
6
3
4
1
2
3
3
2
2
4
2
6
16
10
12
9
8
13
8
17
67%
40%
56%
19%
20
12
15
5
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.0
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.9
Number of
Games Played Won Draw Lost For Against Success % Points Avg. For Avg. Against

24. 23
Over the last 4 years, the most successful teams from Latin America were Teams Brazil and Mexico. The Europeans were Teams Germany, Belgium, and Spain.
From Asia and Africa, the most successful were Teams Tunisia, Iran, and Japan.
Table 9: Qualification Rankings
Russian World Cup 2018 Qualification Rankings
Brazil
Uruguay
Argentina
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Panama
1
3
4
5
6
2
7
8
18
18
18
20
18
14
14
14
12
8
7
8
7
9
7
5
5
5
7
6
6
4
5
5
1
5
4
6
5
1
2
4
41
30
19
29
21
24
21
13
11
20
16
25
18
7
10
13
76%
54%
52%
50%
50%
74%
62%
48%
41
29
28
30
27
31
26
20
2.3
1.7
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.7
1.5
0.9
0.6
1.1
0.9
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.9
99%
77%
75%
73%
73%
97%
85%
71%
Team
2018 World Cup Qualifications Latin American Team Rankings
Rank Games Played Won Draw Lost For Against Success % Points Avg. For Avg. Against Regional Factor Success %
Germany
Belgium
Spain
Portugal
England
Switzerland
Poland
France
Iceland
Serbia
Croatia
Denmark
Sweden
*Russia
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Host
10
10
10
10
10
12
10
10
10
10
12
12
12
26
10
9
9
9
8
10
8
7
7
6
7
7
7
9
-
1
1
-
2
1
1
2
1
3
3
3
2
6
-
-
-
1
-
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
3
11
43
43
36
32
18
24
28
18
16
19
19
25
27
35
4
6
3
4
3
7
14
6
7
10
5
9
9
38
100%
93%
93%
90%
87%
86%
83%
77%
73%
70%
67%
67%
64%
42%
30
28
28
27
26
31
25
23
22
21
24
24
23
33
4.3
4.3
3.6
3.2
1.8
2.0
2.8
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.6
2.1
2.3
1.3
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.6
1.4
0.6
0.7
1.0
0.4
0.8
0.8
1.5
100%
93%
93%
90%
87%
86%
83%
77%
73%
70%
67%
67%
64%
42%
Team
2018 World Cup Qualifications European Team Rankings
Rank Games Played Won Draw Lost For Against Success % Points Avg. For Avg. Against Regional Factor Success %

25. Tunisia
Senegal
Nigeria
Egypt
Morocco
Iran
Japan
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Korea Republic
1
4
7
9
10
2
3
5
6
8
8
8
8
8
8
18
18
22
18
17
6
5
5
5
4
12
13
14
12
11
2
3
2
1
3
6
3
6
3
3
-
-
1
2
1
-
2
2
3
3
15
15
13
12
13
36
44
51
45
35
6
5
6
5
1
5
7
18
14
10
83%
75%
71%
67%
63%
78%
78%
73%
72%
71%
20
18
17
16
15
42
42
48
39
36
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.1
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.6
91%
83%
79%
75%
71%
86%
86%
81%
80%
79%
Team
2018 World Cup Qualifications Other Regions Team Rankings
Rank Games Played Won Draw Lost For Against Success % Points Avg. For Avg. Against Regional Factor Success %
24

26. Summary: Success Prediction for World Cup Russia 2018
25
Table 10: Prediction Model - includes performance, heritage, hosting and newcomer factors
Germany
Brazil
Spain
Belgium
Argentina
Mexico
Switzerland
Portugal
France
England
Senegal
Colombia
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Japan
Poland
Morocco
Croatia
Denmark
Korea Republic
Russia
Egypt
1
1
3
2
4
2
6
4
8
5
4
6
7
3
3
7
10
11
12
8
Host
9
F
E
B
G
D
F
E
B
C
G
H
H
E
A
H
H
B
D
C
F
A
A
1
2
6
13
4
9
15
10
5
8
31
21
25
14
20
37
43
11
17
12
40
33
31
22
12
25
20
11
17
25
21
5
8
11
14
17
6
3
16
12
20
6
77%
72%
68%
56%
71%
45%
55%
49%
61%
51%
53%
63%
39%
45%
31%
33%
44%
48%
47%
35%
28%
76
67
45
20
53
27
18
25
46
32
8
15
13
19
16
6
4
23
17
21
5
88%
85%
81%
74%
73%
71%
70%
70%
69%
69%
68%
68%
62%
61%
59%
58%
57%
57%
57%
57%
35%
37%
88%
85%
81%
74%
73%
71%
70%
70%
69%
69%
68%
68%
62%
61%
59%
58%
57%
57%
57%
57%
55%
55%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2235%
20%
10
18
10
10
18
14
12
10
10
10
8
18
14
18
18
10
8
12
12
17
26
8
100%
76%
93%
93%
52%
74%
86%
90%
77%
87%
75%
50%
62%
54%
78%
83%
63%
67%
67%
71%
42%
67%
100%
99%
93%
93%
75%
97%
86%
90%
77%
87%
83%
73%
85%
77%
86%
83%
71%
67%
67%
79%
42%
75%
30
41
28
28
28
31
31
27
23
26
18
27
26
29
42
25
15
24
24
36
33
16
Team Points Success Factor % Overall RankRank
Performance -
World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017
Heritage -
World Cup Results 1998-2014
Host Country
(% won 1998-2014)
Up and
Coming
Original
Group
Games
Played
Qualifications
Success %
Regional
Factor
Success %
PointsRank
Games
Played
Heritage
Success %
Overall
Success %
Overall Success %
(Including Hosting Factor)
1998-2014
Success %

27. Predictions Taking into Account the Group Structure
The most interesting Groups are A, C, D, and H. For these Groups, the success % of the teams is very similar.
Group A
Group c
Team Russia has a chance to rank 2 as the hosting country with its local audience, despite its low results over the last 3 years.
Team Egypt has a chance to rank 2 and beat Team Russia.
Team Uruguay has a chance to rank 1 considering its overall success in the qualifications, and its heritage in previous
World Cup tournaments from 1998-2014.
Team France will rank 1.
All 3 other teams can rank 2. We predict that Team Denmark will rank 2.
Teams Argentina and Croatia are likely to rank 1 and 2, but they could lose their rank to the newcomers - Teams Iceland or Nigeria - that
achieved great results in the World Cup Qualifications.
Group d
Table 10 continued: Prediction Model - includes performance, heritage, hosting, and newcomer factors
26
Iceland
Peru
Nigeria
Australia
Panama
Sweden
Iran
Serbia
Tunisia
Saudi Arabia
9
5
7
5
8
13
2
10
1
D
C
D
C
G
F
B
E
G
A
26
33
27
42
30
50
53
14
10
8
9
10
9
9
29%
27%
42%
19%
33%
11%
7%
12
8
10
5
10
3
2
37%
37%
54%
54%
35%
53%
52%
52%
51%
44%
54%
54%
54%
54%
53%
53%
52%
52%
51%
44%
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
35%
35%
35%
10
20
8
22
14
12
18
10
8
73%
50%
71%
73%
48%
64%
78%
70%
83%
72%
73%
73%
79%
81%
71%
64%
86%
70%
91%
80%
22
30
17
48
20
23
42
21
20
39
Team Points Success Factor % Overall RankRank
Performance -
World Cup Qualifications 2015-2017
Heritage -
World Cup Results 1998-2014
Host Country
(% won 1998-2014)
Up and
Coming
Original
Group
Games
Played
Qualifications
Success %
Regional
Factor
Success %
PointsRank
Games
Played
Heritage
Success %
Overall
Success %
Overall Success %
(Including Hosting Factor)
1998-2014
Success %

28. Other Groups have larger disparities between the teams.
We predict the following teams will rank 1 and 2 and move up to Round 16:
Teams Spain and Portugal Teams Brazil and Switzerland
Teams Germany and Mexico Teams Belgium and England
Summary
With so much historical data to analyze, it was fascinating to see that predictions can be made.
Our team of analysts predicts that Europeans will take the World Cup 2018 – !
We are going to watch this tournament very closely to see if the model we created managed to predict the success of the teams. Since we decided to factor in team parameters
(heritage, performance, group structure) rather than individual star capabilities, we feel our predictions for the winning teams are much stronger.
Here is our interactive dashboard that you can look at and review your favorite team’s data.
Drill down on any widget to discover more and be sure to watch the World Cup with this data in your hands.
The most interesting Group of all since all teams have a similar success % coming in.
Teams Senegal and Colombia have a higher chance to make it to Round 16.
Teams Japan and Poland can surprise us and may find their way to Round 16.
Group h
Group b Group e
Group f Group g
27

29. GROUP PHASE
28
Cheat Sheet with Success Predictions
for the World Cup Tournament Russia 2018
Group A
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Uruguay2,18,33 61% 14
Sisense
Rank
Russia1,17,33 55% 21
Egypt2,17,34 55% 22
Saudi
Arabia
1,18,34 44% 32
Group B
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Spain3,20,36 81% 3
Sisense
Rank
Portugal3,19,35 70% 8
Morocco4,19,36 57% 17
Iran4,20,35 52% 29
Group C
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
France5,21,37 69% 9
Sisense
Rank
Denmark6,22,37 57% 19
Peru6,21,38 54% 24
Australia5,22,38 54% 26
Group D
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Argentina7, 23,39 73% 5
Sisense
Rank
Croatia8,23,40 57% 18
Iceland7,24,40 54% 23
Nigeria8,24,39 54% 25
Group E
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Brazil9,25,41 85% 2
Sisense
Rank
Switzerland9,26,42 70% 7
Costa Rica10,25,42 62% 13
Serbia10,26,41 52% 30
Group F
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Germany11,27,43 88% 1
Sisense
Rank
Mexico11,28,44 71% 6
Korea
Republic12,28,43 57% 20
Sweden12,27,44 53% 28
Group G
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Belgium13,29,45 74% 4
Sisense
Rank
England14,30,45 69% 10
Panama13,30,46 53% 27
Tunisia14,29,46 51% 31
Group H
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
Senegal15,32,48 68% 11
Sisense
Rank
Colombia16,31,48 68% 12
Japan16,32,47 59% 15
Poland15,31,47 58% 16

30. Round 16
QUARTER-FINALS SEMI-FINALS
Group A vs Group B
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %A1 vs B2
B1 vs A2
Uruguay49,51 61% 14
Sisense
Rank
Portugal49,51 70% 8
Spain49,51 81% 3
Russia49,51 55% 21
Groups A-B vs Groups C-D
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
(A1 or B2) vs
(C1 or D2)
(B1 or A2) vs
(D1 or C2)
Portugal57,58 70% 8
Sisense
Rank
France57,58 69% 9
Spain57,58 81% 3
Argentina57,58 73% 5
29
Group C vs Group D
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %C1 vs D2
D1 vs C2
France50,52 69% 9
Sisense
Rank
Croatia50,52 57% 18
Argentina50,52 73% 5
Denmark50,52 57% 19
Group E vs Group F
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %E1 vs F2
F1 vs E2
Brazil53,55 85% 2
Sisense
Rank
Mexico53,55 71% 6
Germany53,55 88% 1
Switzerland53,55 70% 7
Group G vs Group H
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %G1 vs H2
H1 vs G2
Belgium54,56 74% 4
Sisense
Rank
Colombia54,56 68% 12
Senegal54,56 68% 11
England54,56 69% 10
Groups E-F vs Groups G-H
Game
Numbers
Sisense
Success %
(E1 or F2) vs
(G1 or H2)
(F1 or E2) vs
(H1 or G2)
Brazil59,60 85% 2
Sisense
Rank
Belgium59,60 74% 4
Germany59,60 88% 1
England59,60 69% 10
(A1 or B2 or C1 or D2)
vs
(E1 or F2 or G1 or H2)
Game
Numbers
Portugal61,62 70% 8
Sisense
Rank
Brazil61,62 85% 2
(B1 or A2 or D1 or C2)
vs
(F1 or E2 or H1 or G2)
Game
Numbers
Spain61,62 81% 3
Sisense
Rank
Germany61,62 88% 1

31. 30
final
Winners of 1/2 Final
1st and 2nd Place
Game Numbers: 63, 64
Sisense
Success %
85%
88%
Brazil
Germany
2
1
Sisense
Rank
Germany
Brazil
Play-off
for third place
Game
Numbers
Spain63,64 81% 3
Sisense
Rank
Portugal63,64 70% 8