Context Setting by Shahid Solomon and Harry Dugmore

2. Standing on the shoulders of giants
Key insights from:
•The Presidency Scenarios 2025: “The future we chose?” (published 2008)
•The Dinokeng Scenarios – Three futures for South Africa (published 2009)
The Gauteng 2055 Development Strategy (Gauteng province in 2009)
The State of African Cities 2010: Governance, Inequality and Urban Land Markets
(UN-Habitat 2010)
World Trade Report 2010 (WTO, 2010)
World Development Indicators 2010 (World Bank 2010)
Africa in 2050 (Institute of Security Studies, 2011)
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2011 (UN 2011)
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (Shell 2007)
Global Tends 2025: a transformed world (National Intelligence Council USA
2007)

3. Four global drivers
The Networked Century: from „each one,
reach one‟, to „each one reach all‟.
The Thirsty century: the great Resource
Crunch: Carbon, Water, Waste.
The African Century: thriving in the great
global recalibration
The Trading Century: Gearing up for
Globalisation 4.0.

4. The Networked Century
6,899,614,715….
the consensus best estimate for global
population as on 15 February 2011.
5,282 ,000,000…
the best calculation of global mobile
subscriptions at the end of 2010
2,084,000,000 ….
number of internet users end of 2010

5. The Networked Century

6. Two thirds of Africans have cell
phones by 2012; 80% have easy access

7. The Networked Century
Connectivity
costs in Africa
are still

9. The Networked Century

10. The Networked Century

11. The Networked Century
1 in 6 – the
number of
marriages
of people
who met
through the
internet

12. The Networked Century
Two
billion –
the
number
of DOUBLE
Youtube The
videos 2009
viewed figures!
EACH
DAY

13. The complete Top 15 most
visited websites by South
Africans
1 ) Google SA
2 ) Facebook
3 ) Google
4 ) Yahoo
5 ) YouTube
6 ) Wikipedia
7 ) Gumtree
8 ) Wikipedia
9 ) Blogger
10 ) Twitter
11 ) Windows Live
12 ) News24
13 ) Standard Bank
14 ) ABSA
15 ) WordPress

14. The Networked Century
Which country had the highest
YouTube viewership in Africa in
2010?

17. The Thirsty century

18. The Thirsty century

20. The Thirsty century

21. Carbon crunches, water, waste

22. The Thirsty century

24. 11.09
7.66
Energy emissions per capita, 2000
(tonnes CO2/capita)
6.91
4.13
2.40
2.04
1.13 0.86
Source: IEA (with thanks to INCITE)

25. For South Africa, hotter, drier,
thirstier, in a world where carbon is
more controlled and energy is
everywhere expensive. How to meet
these challenges?

26. The African Century

28. Global Population Figures
28

29. 25 most populous African countries
29
2025, 2015, 2007
Nigeria (220m), Ethiopia (130m), Egypt (100m),
the DRC (110m) and South Africa (50m) will
make up 25% of the population of Africa by
2025. The other 48 countries will make up
about 1.5billion people. Sudan, Tanzania,
Kenya, Uganda will all have 50m PLUS people,
i.e. be higher than SA by 2025, even though we
are currently well ahead of them in 2011.

31. 31

36. The Trading Century
Proportion of global GDP
derived from trade in goods
and services 1962 to 2010

37. The Trading Century

38. The Trading Century

40. Africa rising

41. The Trading Century
Micro
10%
Very Small
12%
Contribution to
GDP
Small
16%
Medium and Large
62% Unspecified
Medium to Large 2%
26%
Micro
33%
Contribution to
employment
Small
16%
Very Small
23%
Source: the DTI(Ann Rev of Small business in SA 2003)

42. Four global drivers
The Networked Century: from „each one,
reach one‟, to „each one reach all‟.
The Thirsty century: the great Resource
Crunch: Carbon, Water, Waste.
The African Century: thriving in the great
global recalibration
The Trading Century: Gearing up for
Globalisation 4.0.

44. The Cone of Probability

45. What will shape Johanesburg‟s
future?
• The Four Global Drivers
• The Centrality Driver: centrality in
Southern Africa: logistical,
economic, cultural

48. The City Management Driver
• Urban transformation (influx, capacity)
and quality of life

49. The Gauteng 2055 Trajectory

50. Plausible long-term outcomes
2015 -
2015 -
2025
2025
2015 -
2015 -
2025
2025

51. Plausible Alternatives
1. The Networked City : Will Johannesburg be
beating Drum of the New African Networks
OR a Digital Guerrilla Base?
2.The Resource Crunch: Awash in Sustainable
Energy and Recycled Water OR Mired in
saline black outs?
3. Africa Rising: Afro-Centric OR Eccentric?

52. Plausible Alternatives
Key Questions:
4. Globalisation 3.0: Knowledge Capital OR
Warehouse of Foreign Goods
5. Centrality : Heart of the Southern African City
Region Archipelago OR Decaying Citadel?
6. Urban Management
>Transforming at Pace OR Overtaken by
Events?
>City for All OR City of Slums, Glitz and
Gunpowder?

54. Is Johannesburg ready to:
Open up to real time networks?
Affordable and accessible broadband
Developing social media as a key to e-
government, i.e. opening up the Network
Society
Developing real-time responsiveness.
Attracting on line energy and partnerships

55. Is Johannesburg ready to:
Face the Resource Crunch ?
Paying for the future now
Embracing alternative energy and
recycling
Going even bigger on public transport
Green Technology Promotion
Involving consumers through Public
Education

56. Becoming a more
Compact City

57. Is Johannesburg ready to:
To become a social escalator that
enables broad based upward
mobility?
Local Resource Centres
Development Support Portal
SMME & Informal Sector support
Skills Exchange
Supportive Social Network

59. Is Johannesburg ready to:
Embrace a new age of Afro-
centricity ?
o Stronger relationship with Africa and
BRICS
oVoice of migrant populations (local
and international)

60. Projects could include:
Broadening and deepening African city-
city partnerships and coalitions
Investing in a more inclusive Arts and
Culture

61. Offering world class urban
lifestyle choices

62. Is Johannesburg ready to:
Become the cornerstone of a truly
competitive Global City Region?
Connecting deeply to cross border and
city region economic, spatial and logistics
planning

64. Projects Could Include:
Getting the Basics Right
Consolidating core service delivery
Championing Globally Competitive Sectors
Business Process Outsourcing
Financial Services
Value chains
Air/rail/road logistics hub and inland port

65. Becoming a true
Knowledge Capital

66. Is Johannesburg ready to:
Getting an Elephant to dance?
A clear and attainable long term vision?
An effective strategic framework?
A responsive, flexible and learning organisation?
A “Best in The World” (BIW) Team?
Build vibrant partnerships at all levels?

67. Discussion
Thank you!