How to take advantage of the single biggest Bitcoin mining opportunity for the next 24-months. This opportunity will legitimize our industry, and guarantee our profitability, and allow us to take control of our own fate.
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2019.10.05 Bitcoin ROI Revealed - Frankfurt - Sean Walsh
1. ROI RevealedThe Single Best Mining Opportunity For The Next 24-Months
Sean M. Walsh - sean@hyperblock.co - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
World Digital Mining Summit, Frankfurt– October 2019
2. The Big Problem: The Race To The Bottom
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
If,
$1/day
here
Then,
$0.005/day
here
BTC Mining Revenue – 1 TH/S
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Mining Difficulty BTC Price Profit/Day
99.5%
Reduction
3. The Rest Of Our Big Problem…
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
5. Mining Is Not The Only Way To Obtain Bitcoin
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
It’s easy to forget that when mining
profitability drops below a certain
threshold,
It is more attractive to buy Bitcoins,
instead.
6. Bitcoin Mining Investment Trend
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Billions
Bitcoin Mining
Gross Profit Vs. Capital Investment
Cumulative Gross Profit Cumulative Capital Investment
$1.2 Billion
Deficit
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
CONCLUSION: $1.2 Billion over investment may take two years to repay.
7. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
CONCLUSION: $1.2 Billion over investment may take 2 years to recover.
($1.5)
($1.0)
($0.5)
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
Billions
Bitcoin Mining
Net Cash Position
Net Cash Position
Bitcoin Mining Investment Trend
$1.2 Billion
Deficit
8. What is the Best Investment for a Miner?
Purchase Mining Servers.
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Increase the
value of Bitcoin.
Cannibalize value of
pre-existing servers.
Increase value of
pre-existing assets.
(Virtuous Cycle)
10. Miners’ Golden Opportunity
1. The single best investment we miners can make is to
stimulate Bitcoin adoption and usage.
3. How? Increased Bitcoin adoption drives Bitcoin value up.
4. This makes all Bitcoin mining assets more valuable.
5. Techniques for achieving increased adoption are
surprisingly economical and simple.
2. This investment delivers at least 10x greater ROI than an
investment into mining assets alone.
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
11. Affiliate Marketing Program Built Amazon.com
Concept: Affiliates refer their Website visitors, and are paid sales commissions
on resulting orders.
Amazon History: Launched their Affiliate Marketing Program in 1996.
Amazon Success: Amazon is the Internet’s largest and most successful
company. $1 Trillion market capitalization, and $180 Billion in revenue.
Affiliate Contribution: Affiliate Program is cited as one of the most important
contributors Amazon’s incredible growth.
20-Years Of Growth: There are now over 300k affiliate websites driving
customers to Amazon every day, still driving 25% of total Amazon.com traffic.
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
12. sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
$0.5M
$12M
$38M
$271M
$50M
$100M
$150M
$200M
$250M
$300M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Total Expense Total Investment Value
TVPI %: 813%
Initial Capital ROI %: 731%
Expenditure ROI %: 1982%
Note: Even if customer acquisition cost is 2x budget, ROI still exceeds 700%.
Acquisition Campaign Return Profile
13. Compare Investments: $1 Million Starting Point
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Investment Period – 24 Months Mining Expansion Affiliate Marketing
Starting Asset Value $1.0 Million $1.0 Million
Monthly Affiliate Marketing Expense $0 $15,000
TVPI% 166% 813%
Ending Asset Value $1.7 Million $8.1 Million
Total Profit $0.7 Million $7.1 Million
CONCLUSION: Affiliate Marketing investment yields 10x
more profit, or $7.1 Million additional per every $1 Million.
14. Sean M. Walsh
- One of largest miners in North America
- Related hardware and software products
- Initial Public Offering in 2018 (Toronto)
CEO, Hyperblock.co
Bitcoin/Crypto Investments
Founder, Redwood City Ventures
Advisor, Science Inc, Los Angeles
Advisor, GlobalLive Technology Partners, Toronto
$2B+ Silicon Valley Private Equity firm
Previously Vice President at Bertram Capital
15+ Years Online Customer Acquisition
https://www.slideshare.net/SeanWalsh28
@SeanWalshBTC
Linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
sean@hyperblock.co
16. Our Strategy
HyperBlock operates an efficient, North America-based
blockchain database security utility service.
20MW cryptocurrency
datacenter in the US
Pacific Northwest.
Proprietary Mobile,
Modular Mining Unit.
Hashrate sales to
Bitcoin.com
Automated trading
system to optimize
crypto assets.
Crypto adoption
accelerator &
innovator.
17. MODULAR MINING UNITS
SPEED TO MARKET
HyperBox is a self-contained, unit, with a dedicated transformer,
racking and cooling features. Units are in development. Targeting
deployment in Q3 2019.
MULTIPLE REVENUE STREAMS
Modular units may be offered to individual clients for sale, or offered
through HyperBlock hosting/hashrate sales.
ENHANCED ECONOMICS
Modular units provide a low cost path for machine deployment.
Significantly advantaged cost base versus traditional facilities
FLEXIBLE DEPLOYMENT
Modular units can be deployed to any power location, including
behind-the-fence opportunities.
• Compact 20 ft prototype design available in custom sizes, up to 53 ft.
• Prototype model includes 230 T17/S17 servers can be configured for
500 Bitmain S9 servers
• Available from .5 to 2MW.
HyperBox prototype model is .7MW
18. 18
PROPRIERTARY TRADING
HYPERBLOCK AIMS TO OPTIMIZE ITS CRYPTO ASSETS
THROUGH AN AUTOMATED, SPECIALIZED TRADING
SYSTEM
AUTOMATED SOFTWARE
HyperBlock software engineers are
developing a proprietary, automated trading
system to help the company optimize its
crypto holdings.
GLOBAL PROP TRADING
HyperBlock plans to begin active prop trading
in 2020 by dynamically allocating funds to
traders based on performance.
20. 12,000 Years of
Shell Money?!
Paleolithic era shell hoards found from Red Sea
to Switzerland.
10,000BC
Neolithic era shell money in South Pacific & Asia
5,000BC
Chinese Shang Dynasty, bronze cowrie shell money
1,600BC
used throughout India, Africa, Asia, Europe,
South Pacific
1700s
used as legal tender in West Africa
1850
Replaced by modern currency in remote parts of Africa
1920
Still used in Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea
2018
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
21. Stages Of Information + Money Technology
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
20,000 BC-10,000 BC
Information
Money
Counting
&
Numbers
Cowrie
Shells
22. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
20,000 BC-10,000 BC 1100 AD – 1600 AD
Information
Money
Counting
&
Numbers
Cowrie
Shells
Printing Press
With
Moveable Type
Double-Entry
Accounting
System
Stages Of Information + Money Technology
23. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
20,000 BC-10,000 BC 1100 AD – 1600 AD 1980 AD – 2025 AD
Information
Money
Counting
&
Numbers
Cowrie
Shells
Printing Press
With
Moveable Type
Double-Entry
Accounting
System
Internet
of
Information
Crypto-Assets
+
Internet of Money
Stages Of Information + Money Technology
24. Money Technology - Exponential Growth
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
20000
BC
15000
BC
10000
BC
5000
BC
0 1400
AD
1450
AD
1500
AD
1550
AD
1600
AD
1650
AD
1700
AD
1750
AD
1800
AD
1850
AD
1900
AD
1950
AD
2000
AD
2050
AD
The so-called Internet Of Money is an
energy transfer network that connects every
human being on the planet.
20,000 BC-10,000 BC
Sophisticationof
Civilization
25. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
20000
BC
15000
BC
10000
BC
5000
BC
0 1400
AD
1450
AD
1500
AD
1550
AD
1600
AD
1650
AD
1700
AD
1750
AD
1800
AD
1850
AD
1900
AD
1950
AD
2000
AD
2050
AD
This network’s bandwidth, and flexibility
have been growing at an exponential rate
for millennia.
1100 AD – 1600 AD
Money Technology - Exponential Growth
Sophisticationof
Civilization
26. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
20000
BC
15000
BC
10000
BC
5000
BC
0 1400
AD
1450
AD
1500
AD
1550
AD
1600
AD
1650
AD
1700
AD
1750
AD
1800
AD
1850
AD
1900
AD
1950
AD
2000
AD
2050
AD
However, the early stages of exponential
growth never appear/feel such. It’s not until the
inflection point, that hockey stick corner, when
the exponential growth becomes widely
apparent.
1980 AD – 2025 AD
Sophisticationof
Civilization
Money Technology - Exponential Growth
27. What Is Bitcoin?
• The best form of money ever invented
• But... What is money?
1. Unit of Account
2. Means of Exchange
3. Store of Value
• How to compare different monies? SDDRFT
1. Scarcity
2. Durability
3. Divisibility
4. Reconizability
5. Fungability
6. Transportability
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
28. The Squabbling Brothers Of Bitcoin
It’s looking increasingly likely that BTC and BCH will co-exist,
however tense their relationship may be on Twitter...
Bitcoin
BTC
Bitcoin Core
+
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
BCH
Bitcoin Cash
29. 1. Scarcity limited, predictable supply
2. Durability won’t decay
3. Divisibility easy to subdivide
4. Recognizability difficult to counterfeit
5. Fungibility units are exchangeable
6. Transportability easy to move
Comparing Different Forms of Money
6 Characteristics
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
They all boil down to
trustworthiness of the
money (faith).
30. S
Dur.
Div.
R
F
T
Gold = 18
S
Dur.
Div.
R
F
T
USD = 13
S
Dur.
Div.
R
F
T
Arg Peso = 10
S
Dur.
Div.
R
F
T
Frequent Flier Miles = 5
S
Dur.
Div.
R
F
T
Starbucks Cards = 6
S
Dur.
Div.
R
F
T
Cowrie Shells = 15
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Scoring “Moneyness”
32. 0
5
10
15
20
25
Cowry Shells Gold USD Arg Peso Frequent
Flier Miles
Starbucks
Cards
Bitcoin
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Comparing Moneyness
It all boils down to
faith in the money...
34. Bitcoin Is Backed By Neck Tattoos
What is Bitcoin Money backed by?
Its users’ faith in its future value…
(AKA, neck tattoos)
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
35. And, Money Tattoos Are Well Established…
Paleolithic
ballers must
have been
covered in
Cowrie Shell
tattoos…
Roman Imperatorial Coinage from 1st Triumvirate circa 59BC
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
36. Bitcoin Transactions Increasing the Pie
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Existing
Financial
Transaction
Types
Bitcoin
Transactions
SWIFT Wires, ACH,
Credit Cards, Loans,
Checks, Cash, Etc.
37. Bitcoin: Bubble + Anti-Bubble
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Time »
Growth%
Late
2011 20172013 2013
Early
2000%
1500%
1000%
500%
38. Bitcoin Bubble #1
2011 Bubble
% Gain, Pre-Bubble
To Bubble Peak
3,500%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Pre-Bubble 700%
$Value»
Time »
$0.90
$32
$6
Pre
Bubble
Bubble
Peak
Pullback
Level
39. Bitcoin Bubble #2
2013 Bubble #1
% Gain, Pre-Bubble
To Bubble Peak
2,200%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Previous Bubble 125%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Pre-Bubble 600%
$Value»
Time »
$12
$266
$70
Pre
Bubble
Bubble
Peak
Pullback
Level
40. Bitcoin Bubble #3
2013 Bubble #2
% Gain, Pre-Bubble
To Bubble Peak
1,100%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Previous Bubble 110%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Pre-Bubble 650%
$Value»
Time »
$100
$1,200
$450
Pre
Bubble
Bubble
Peak
Pullback
Level
41. Bitcoin Bubble #4
2017 Bubble
% Gain, Pre-Bubble
To Bubble Peak
2,600%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Previous Bubble 300%
% Gain, Pullback Level
To Pre-Bubble 500%
$Value»
Time »
$750
$20,000
$4,000
Pre
Bubble
Bubble
Peak
Pullback
Level
43. Volatility Explained: Price Elasticity of Supply
In General…
If a surge in demand increases
PRICE,
Then, additional SUPPLY enters
market
(think of things like eggs,
bicycles, concert tickets,
vitamins, oil, electric cars, etc)
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Price»
Qty »
PES – Unit Elastic
$110
1100
$100
1000
Increase
of 10%
Increase
of 10%
44. Price Elasticity Of Supply - Bitcoin
New Minted Coins
(100k / month)
+
Coins Sold
by Holders
Bitcoin Supply
As price increases, supply
declines, leading to
acceleration.
Bottom
Line
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Supply»
Price »
Current
Equilibrium
45. Miner Sells 100 BTC
—
$1 Million
The Feeback Loop – Price Decline
BTC Price
drops to $6,000
for some reason
Miner sells 167 BTC
—
$1 Million
66% Extra BTC Supply
causes price to drop
further to $3,000
Miner Monthly
Operating Expenses
—
$1 Million
BTC Price = $10,000
Miner sells 334 BTC
—
$1 Million
46. Miner Sells 334 BTC
—
$1 Million
The Feeback Loop – Price Increase
BTC Price rises
to $6,000
for some reason
Miner sells 167 BTC
—
$1 Million
50% Lower BTC Supply
causes price to rise further
to $10,000
Miner Monthly
Operating Expenses
—
$1 Million
BTC Price = $3,000
Miner sells 100 BTC
—
$1 Million
50. What Fundamentals Drive Bitcoin Value?
1. Transaction Volume / Means of Exchange Use
2. Bitcoin Customer Base Growth
3. Increasing faith in the “moneyness” of Bitcoin
4. Metcalfe’s Law
5. Short-term swings partially driven by miners
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
52. Value Driver – Metcalfe’s Law
Source: http://forum.bitcoin.com
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
53. Supply Fluctuation From Bitcoin Miners
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
• Fixed 54k BTC per
month paid to miners.
• Therefore fiat revenue
varies wildly
• And, Operating
Expenses are paid in
fiat
• So, miners must sell
more as price
declines.
All Global
Miners
Operating
Cost
54. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Core Miners
(Sustainable)
1/3
$0.06
per kWh
Operating
Cost
Supply Fluctuation From Bitcoin Miners
• Fixed 54k BTC per
month paid to miners.
• Therefore fiat revenue
varies wildly
• And, Operating
Expenses are paid in
fiat
• So, miners must sell
more as price
declines.
55. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Core Miners
(Sustainable)
Swing Miners
(Sometimes Viable)
$0.09
per kWh
1/3
$0.06
per kWh
1/3
Operating
Cost
Supply Fluctuation From Bitcoin Miners
• Fixed 54k BTC per
month paid to miners.
• Therefore fiat revenue
varies wildly
• And, Operating
Expenses are paid in
fiat
• So, miners must sell
more as price
declines.
56. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Core Miners
(Sustainable)
Swing Miners
(Sometimes Viable)
Miners That
Will Fail
$0.09
per kWh
Operating
Cost
1/3
$0.06
per kWh
1/3
1/3
Supply Fluctuation From Bitcoin Miners
• Fixed 54k BTC per
month paid to miners.
• Therefore fiat revenue
varies wildly
• And, Operating
Expenses are paid in
fiat
• So, miners must sell
more as price
declines.
57. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
1 2 3 4
Undeniable Influence Of
Metcalfe’s Law
Price Elasticity of
Supply
Steady Customer Base
Growth
Bitcoin Dilution
Trend
5 6 7
Institutional
Money Flow
99.9% Of Capital Is
Sitting On Sidelines
TAM Of Over 3 Billion internet-connected
adults, but under 0.8 Million people own 1+
Bitcoins.
Evidence of Continued Value Growth?
61. Max $10 Billion of Fiat Into Exchanges
99.9% Of Capital Is Still On The Sidelines
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/
$70 Trillion – 7,000x $80.9 Trillion –8,090x
Bitcoin
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
62. Step 4:
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
How Will It Work?
Affiliate Marketing
Campaign
63. What Is Affiliate Marketing?
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
64. Affiliate Marketing for Bitcoin...
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Sam wants to learn
about Bitcoin
Sam clicks on the affiliate
link &buys Bitcoin from
Coinbase
You get paid a commission from Miner
Alliance!
BitcoinInfo.com
65. sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
$0.5M
$12M
$38M
$271M
$50M
$100M
$150M
$200M
$250M
$300M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Total Expense Total Investment Value
TVPI %: 813%
Initial Capital ROI %: 731%
Expenditure ROI %: 1982%
Note: Even if customer acquisition cost is 2x budget, ROI still exceeds 700%.
Acquisition Campaign Return Profile
66. Customer Acquisition Model – Input Variables
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Starting Asset Value $33 Million
Customer Acquisition Campaign Duration 24-Months
Monthly Campaign Expense $0.5 Million
Monthly Expense % Of Starting Asset Value 1.5%
Bitcoin Wallet Growth Expectation Under 2%
Bitcoin Price Monthly Growth Expectations 5%
(very conservative)
Cost Per New Bitcoin Customer $50
New Customers Per Month 10,000
New Bitcoin Supply Absorbed Approx 20%
1. This opportunity exists for any size miner, small or large.
2. 1.5% of Asset Value per month is all that’s required.
67. sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
$33M $33M
$79M
$233M
$874M
$200M
$400M
$600M
$800M
$1000M
0.5% 2% 5% 10%
MOM Growth, Bitcoin Price
Starting Investment Value Investment Value in 24 Months
TVPI: 2x
Expenditure
ROI = 7,000%
TVPI:
9x
TVPI:
28.2x
Investment Return: Four Scenarios
68. sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
$500,000
$12,000,000
$33,867,619
$55,487,686
$50M
$100M
$150M
$200M
$250M
$300M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Total Server Expense Total Investment Value
TVPI %: 166%
Initial Capital ROI %: 66%
Expenditure ROI %: 185%
Mining Expansion Return Profile
69. Compare Investments: $1 Million Starting Point
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Investment Period – 24 Months Mining Expansion Affiliate Marketing
Starting Asset Value $1.0 Million $1.0 Million
Monthly Affiliate Marketing Expense $0 $15,000
TVPI% 166% 813%
Ending Asset Value $1.7 Million $8.1 Million
Total Profit $0.7 Million $7.1 Million
CONCLUSION: Affiliate Marketing investment yields 10x
more profit, or $7.1 Million additional per every $1 Million.
70. Campaign Details, 1 of 4
1. Tokyo
2. California
3. Florida
4. New York
5. Seoul
6. Switzerland
7. Texas
8. UK
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Who:
1. 2 Million Existing 0.1-1.0
Bitcoin Owners
2. Investor ($40k+)
3. Online Brokerage
4. Specific Locations
5. Age < 50
Note – the target is 1,250 customers per region per month
Where:
71. Campaign Details, 2 of 4 – What’s The Pitch?
1. Most unique Store of Value ever created. Inconceivably
scarce.
2. Non correlated asset (portfolio diversification, target 1%-4%)
3. Most asymmetric return profile in history
4. Mainstream adoption due to SDDRFT – best money ever
5. Value is up over 5,000% in 4 years – 1% allocation 4 years
ago would have doubled entire portfolio
6. Strong evidence to suggest strong continued price
appreciation
Note: There are also over 300 Million people around the world who own Gold as a Store of Value.
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
72. Campaign Details, 3 of 4
What’s the Outreach Strategy?
1. Affiliate Marketing Campaign in each target market.
2. Affiliate Success = New Customer purchases 1+ Bitcoin on a
participating local exchange.
3. We pay affiliate $50 per new customer.
4. Recruit 500 Affiliates in each market (in partnership with Exchanges).
5. Affiliates will inspire their respective follower-bases to become customers
(offline activity, online events, etc.)
6. New Customers = 600,000 (avg. 60 per affiliate)
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
73. Campaign Details, 4 of 4
What’s the Budget? Schedule?
1. Affiliate Commission = $50 per new Customer (paid in BTC)
2. Budget = $500k per month
3. New Customers Per Day Per Market = 80
4. % of New Bitcoin Supply Absorbed = Over 20%
5. Initial Campaign Duration = 24 months
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
This triggers the
Virtuous Cycle…
74. Added Benefit Of Increased Bitcoin Usage
1. More transactions means an increase in the velocity of Bitcoin circulation.
2. The higher the velocity of Bitcoin circulation becomes, the larger the
average Bitcoin balance required by users.
3. This simple demand will overwhelm Supply and drive value up
enormously, while calming volatility due to highly distributed demand
profile.
4. To wit, about 2 million people own at least 0.1 Bitcoin. If even 5% of them
re-activate monthly and buy an additional $1,700 of Bitcoin, that absorbs
HALF of new Bitcoin production.
sean@redwoodcityventures.com - @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Important: These 2 million existing customers are our best upsell targets.
76. Conclusion
1. We’ve invested $5 Billion into mining Capital Equipment, and we earn
about that in annual revenue.
2. Our revenues bounce around wildly, and risks are enormous.
3. But, we can easily take control of our fate, and guarantee our profits.
4. The conditions are set for an incredible mining ROI over next 2 years.
5. Action: Spend 0.5% of mining asset value on Bitcoin Marketing.
6. Result: 2,000% 2-year ROI.
7. Online Affiliate Marketing is proven and easy to execute.
8. To join our miner consortium, email sean@hyperblock.co
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
78. Sean M. Walsh
- One of largest miners in North America
- Related hardware and software products
- Initial Public Offering in 2018 (Toronto)
CEO, Hyperblock.co
Bitcoin/Crypto Investments
Founder, Redwood City Ventures
Advisor, Science Inc, Los Angeles
Advisor, GlobalLive Technology Partners, Toronto
$2B+ Silicon Valley Private Equity firm
Previously Vice President at Bertram Capital
15+ Years Online Customer Acquisition
https://www.slideshare.net/SeanWalsh28
@SeanWalshBTC
Linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
sean@hyperblock.co
80. The Importance of Moneyness
John Exter
(NY Fed President)
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
81. A Metaphor For Money
Consider money to be a storage medium for human
energy (time x ingenuity).
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Think of its characteristics like a battery’s…
• Energy per unit volume (density)
• Energy decay over time (price inflation)
• Battery durability (over time, across
environments)
• Charging rates (especially max rate)
• Discharge rates (the variety of different
transactions
that can be supported, and the liquidity of a
money)
• Recharge cycles (another form of durability)
82. @SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Vauation»
Time »
Stealth Phase Awareness Phase Mania Phase Blow off Phase
Take off
First Sell Off
Bear Trap
Media Attention
Enthusiasm
Greed
Delusion
New Paradigm!!!
Denial
Bull Trap
Return to
Normal
Fear
Capitulation
Dispair
Return
To the
Mean
Source: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography Hofstra Univ.
Bitcoin: Bubble + Anti-Bubble
83. Increased Usage – Current Headroom
Note: Legacy network is hitting limit of 3 tps.
Bitcoin Cash upgrade increased throughput by 8x
Source: www.bitinfocharts.com
BTC Network: Very little to 0.4 Million transactions/day
BCH Network: 300x growth to 13 Million transactions/day
BTC, 400k tx/day cap here
@SeanWalshBTC - www.linkedin.com/in/SeanWalsh
Editor's Notes
Note: you can make a white version of this deck for printing by clicking “Theme” in the top ribbon, and then selecting the basic white theme in your PowerPoint, like this… http://d.pr/i/10fsb
1. Cryptocurrency mining is one of the most dangerous and unpredictable businesses the world has ever seen. It‘s incredibly capital intensive, and miners around the world go bankrupt on a daily basis trying to produce Bitcoins when they could have just purchased them in the first place. To many of my Silicon Valley peers and associates, some of the most successful investors in the world, the whole mining industry is a casino gamble, not a business, and it‘s a race to the bottom that should be avoided at all cost.
2. But, what if there was a solution to the biggest fundamental problem with mining? What if there was an investment you could make that stabilized the volatility, and virtually guaranteed annual ROIs in excess of 500%?
3. Well, that‘s exactly what I‘m going to describe to you right now, and it‘s not because I‘m trying to sell something. I‘m a miner just like you are. I face all the challenges that you do. And I know, that if we can cooperate on this one key opportunity, that we can accomplish incredible goals together. First, we can stabilize our profits, and make them more predictable. Second, this stabilized level will be at much higher levels that current. Next, we can elevate the reputation of our industry from casino gamble, to legitimacy in the eyes of skeptical professional investors. And, finally, we can even accelerate cryptocurrency‘s pace of mainstream adoption.
4. Please listen closely for the next 25 minutes, and we‘ll discuss the underlying principles of this mining opportunity, as well as a feasible tactical execution plan.
1. We miners have a huge problem! Cryptocurrency mining is one of the most dangerous and unpredictable businesses the world has ever seen. It‘s incredibly capital intensive, and miners around the world go bankrupt on a daily basis trying to produce Bitcoins when they could have just purchased them instead. To many of my Silicon Valley peers and associates, some of the most successful investors in the world, the whole mining industry is a casino gamble, not a business, and it‘s a race to the bottom that should be avoided at all cost.
2. But, what if there was a solution to the biggest fundamental problem with mining? What if there was an investment you could make that stabilized the volatility, and virtually guaranteed annual ROIs in excess of 500%?
3. Well, that‘s exactly what I‘m going to describe to you right now, and it‘s not because I‘m trying to sell something. I‘m a miner just like you are. I face all the challenges that you do. And I know, that if we can cooperate on this one key opportunity, that we can accomplish incredible goals together. First, we can stabilize our profits, and make them more predictable. Second, this stabilized level will be at much higher levels that current. Next, we can elevate the reputation of our industry from casino gamble, to legitimacy in the eyes of skeptical professional investors. And, finally, we can even accelerate cryptocurrency‘s pace of mainstream adoption.
4. Please listen closely for the next 25 minutes, and we‘ll discuss the underlying principles of this mining opportunity, as well as a feasible tactical execution plan.
Ai. Talk more about the tactics of the Affiliate Marketing Campaign here
Here’s a simple chart depicting the ROI of our federated customer acquisition campaign.
As I said, we ran it out for 24 months and made very conservative assumptions.
Remember, 2% months customer growth has driven 10% price appreciation for more than two years now.
We assumed that we can take monthly customer growth from about 2% to about 4%, and we set monthly BTC price appreciation at just 5.5% for the period.
5.5% is barely half of the 10% organic price appreciation we’ve experienced, so extremely conservative.
But… this is Bitcoin after all… so we feel an abundance of caution is wise and appropriate.
Given all this, we see a gross profit of about $235M on $500k monthly expenditures.
That yields about 800% Total Value to Paid In Capital, and an astouding ROI on expenditures of 2,000%
But that’s not the most exciting thing about this campaign.
The most exciting part of this campaign, is that the ENTIRE Bitcoin ecosystem is going to benefit commensurately.
This rising tide will lift all boats, help all businesses, all investors.
We’re excited about turning a good profit, but we sell this campaign as a once in a career opportunity to catapult an already successful industry into true mainstream success.
OK. Next slide…
What is the lesson here?
Money evolves
Money is one of society’s most fundamentally important inventions. It’s the basis of how we interact with each other.
Designing good money is very hard, as we’ll discuss momentarily.
Our cultural attachment or inertia is enormous when we establish a new money habit, our mainstream moves together in a big pack.
Once we move on, once we lose faith in a form of money, even the most established form of money in the history of civilization becomes worthless.
OK, back to work…
Cowrie Shell Money:
10,000BC – Paleolithic Age, in wide area from Red Sea to Switzerland, extensive discovery of shell hoards suggesting use as money
5,000BC – Neolithic age, substantial evidence of shell money in South Pacific and China (some believe shells may have been used as many as 100,000 years ago)
1600BC – Shang Dyansty, China , brozne cowrie shells for money
.
. Shells, Gold, Coins in steady use as money
.
1800 – used in India, Africa, Asia, Europe, South Pacific
1850 – still used as legal tender in West Africa
1920 – finally replaced by modern currency in remoter parts of Africa
2017 – still used in Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea
. Found on every continent except Antartica
. Largest sources was Maldive Islands in Indian Ocean
. In classical Chinese, cowrie and money are the same character
Shang Dynasty, 1600BC - http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat2/sub1/entry-5392.html
Monetaria Moneta - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetaria_moneta
History of Shell Money - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_money
Money History - https://books.google.com/books?id=CVNQu_9NehIC&pg=PA90&lpg=PA90&dq=shell+money+5000+bc&source=bl&ots=pZ1yzwbULh&sig=RgVCj7Yde9IfoGc6hqt7egFbPek&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjSp5aEvqXWAhVJzlQKHUrkDuoQ6AEIWzAM#v=onepage&q=shell%20money%205000%20bc&f=false
Chinese Archaeology - https://books.google.com/books?id=ystMAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA141&lpg=PA141&dq=shell+money+5000+bc&source=bl&ots=OtWOUpON00&sig=ctfEZ-Gu5dsN5Gt3I7KyHBzY6zE&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjSp5aEvqXWAhVJzlQKHUrkDuoQ6AEIXjAN#v=onepage&q=shell%20money%205000%20bc&f=false
Paleolithic Shell Money - https://books.google.com/books?id=aASnQujNgzoC&pg=PA19&lpg=PA19&dq=5000bc+shell+money&source=bl&ots=dNWT7ApTwx&sig=DeLuZVScws-ni6KPH5d28axAO0Q&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiA_PaQwKXWAhWjrlQKHf8-DgkQ6AEIXDAL#v=onepage&q=5000bc%20shell%20money&f=false
Describe the 3 epoch’s of advancement in civilization’s use of technology for transmitting information and for transmitting money/value.
Describe the 3 epoch’s of advancement in civilization’s use of technology for transmitting information and for transmitting money/value.
Describe the 3 epoch’s of advancement in civilization’s use of technology for transmitting information and for transmitting money/value.
OK. Humor me for a minute on this one. Remember, we must go back to the basics to find the essence of what we’ve built and what we’re selling to the mainstream.
Of course we all know what Bitcoin is. But, let’s take a deeper look.
We think there are some characteristics that don’t receive enough emphasis, but that are particularly influential in our mainstream adoption thesis.
We expect every form of money to serve three essential functions…
Unit Of Account simply means a tool for measuring the relative worth of every product and service that gets traded… is exponentially easier than trying to calculate bi-directional exchange rates for everything.
A dozen eggs, my airfare to London, a gallon of gas, one hour of accounting services, a restaurant meal, a car tire, a haircut, a house, a movie ticket… a unit of account allows us to easily measure each on the same scale.
Means of Exchange means a token we trade amongst ourselves that we agree has value for transactions. Closely tied to Unit of Account, but the subtle difference is important.
Store of Value is somewhat self explanatory. It means a physical or virtual object that we can purchase to retain any excess wealth we may accumulate in our regular business. We can hold onto that object over time, and it should maintain it’s relative value. Then we can exchange it later for goods and services that we need or want.
What’s interesting, is that economists have devised 6 characteristics of money that we can use to compare moneys.
Their acronym is SDDRFT. Let’s take a look at what they are…
OK. SDDRFT. How to quantify and compare forms of money.
[Run through all six, with examples]
Essentially, they all boil down to the trustworthiness of the money. People need to develop faith in their money.
This is probably why cowrie shells worked so well for so long. People trusted them, and held onto their money habits for a LONG time.
We decided to try this comparison method out for a few common forms of money.
Here are six forms of money. We scored each from 0-4 on SDDRFT and made these radial or polar plots of the results.
From top left, in chronological order of development… cowrie shells, gold, US Dollars, Argentinian Pesos, airline frequent flier miles, and Starbucks cards.
The larger the colored area for each form of money, the higher it’s quality or “moneyness”.
We’ll review the total scores in a minute, but let’s first look at Bitcoin in the same manner…
Here’s how we scored Bitcoin.
Score Meaning…
0 = Non existent
1 = Low
2 = Medium
3 = High
4 = Near-Perfect
These scores are obviously subjective, and we assigned them ourselves, but we think they’re defensible, and adequately coarse.
Maximum score is 24 points.
As you can see, Bitcoin does quite well. Let’s compare all 7 forms of money we analyzed...
Here’s all 7 forms of money.
They’re in chronological order of development from left to right.
Now, we doubt many people in the mainstream public sit around contemplating moneyness much right now, but we believe that’s changing quickly especially in places like Venezuela, Argentina, Russia, the Ukraine, etc.
Geopolitical events could accelerate this any day, with the way things seem to be going.
Note: the USD, and most fiat currencies, are perfectly good at Unit of Account and Means of Exchange. It just seems to us that people have a tendency, right or wrong, to also rely on money also as a Store of Value, and that causes problems for them.
I’m not calling for a replacement of fiat currency, or criticizing any government. Fiat currency is excellent for Unit of Account, and Means of Exchange. It just has problems with Store of Value, yet diligent money savers continue to use it.
https://99bitcoins.com/the-best-7-bitcoin-tattoos/#prettyPhoto
People aren’t going to get a neck tattoo of a form of money unless they REALLY have faith it’s going to be around in the future!
I imagine it’s very likely that people have always tattooed themselves with money they trust… dollar signs… gold coins/bars… all the way back to cowrie shell tattoos
I imagine it’s very likely that people have always tattooed themselves with money they trust… dollar signs… gold coins/bars… Roman imperatorial coins from the first triumvarate in 59BC… all the way back to cowrie shell tattoos
The idea of this slide is to simply describe the basic concept for typical products (oil, wheat, fidget spinners, coconut water, flatscreen tvs, eggs, etc)
I want to show you a virtuous cycle we believe we can trigger with our Bitcoin customer acquisition campaign.
This is the well-established theory of Price Elasticity of Supply
It basically states that, as the price for a good increases, suppliers will increase their supply commensurately to attenuate price appreciation. That behavior would lead to an upward slope in the blue line.
And we see this in well over 99% of all good and services sold in our society. Oil, food, computers, cars, houses… they all typify this behavior.
However, we believe Bitcoin is a rare exception to this rule. We believe Bitcoin’s PES has a negative slope, meaning that as Price increases along the x-axis, Supply paradoxically declines.
If true, this effectively means price appreciation would accelerate the higher BTC price moves.
Each month there are about 4,300 12.5BTC block rewards produced by the network.
There are 3 Billion internet-connected adults on the planet that could purchase those Bitcoins.
In other words, each block reward could have 700k people fighting over it.
There simply aren’t enough to go around.
That leaves marginal supply to pre-existing holders, but human nature typically causes one to hoard more agressively as price increases.
Where would you repurchase your sold BTC? Only the increasing market into which you just sold.
This is what drives the very unusual reverse slope of the Bitcoin Price Elasticity Curve.
Importantly, we believe we can stimulate this behavior by absorbing say 20% of newly produced Bitcoins with our customer acquisition campaign.
http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Competitive_markets/Price_elasticity_of_supply.html (take a quick look at the video, but don’t worry about understanding all of it)
http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/micro_price-elasticity.php
Let me show you an interesting trend that we’ve found in the Bitcoin market.
On the left, you can see a little over 2-years of growth in 1+ BTC wallets, which we use as a rough proxy for customers in our whole analysis. The average growth has been a little shy of 2% since July 2015. We see this as organic customer adoption.
On the right, Bitcoin price… a corresponding growth of almost 10% monthly.
We believe this is much more than correlation. We believe significant causality exists where customer growth is driving price appreciation, given limited BTC supply and other factors.
Remember this… 2% monthly organic customer growth seems to have driven 10% monthly price appreciation. What if we can augment this organic customer growth? We think we can.
Tell the bear camping story here.
Tell the bear camping story here.
Tell the bear camping story here.
Tell the bear camping story here.
US M2 is growing about 8% annually now: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2
But BTC, an exploding global network phenomenon still in it’s infancy (relative to network size and tx volume), will be ¼ of that by 2020 (at below 2%)
Some of the media has suggested Bitcoin is used to circumvent capital controls.
This visual should put that to rest.
With max $10B of fiat into BTC exchanges, and $150T sitting in global money and stock markets, you might as well fill a swimming pool with a teaspoon… or an eye dropper. I don’t know, whichever would be slower and less practical!
Bitcoin just can’t move that needle.
Here’s a simple chart depicting the ROI of our federated customer acquisition campaign.
As I said, we ran it out for 24 months and made very conservative assumptions.
Remember, 2% months customer growth has driven 10% price appreciation for more than two years now.
We assumed that we can take monthly customer growth from about 2% to about 4%, and we set monthly BTC price appreciation at just 5.5% for the period.
5.5% is barely half of the 10% organic price appreciation we’ve experienced, so extremely conservative.
But… this is Bitcoin after all… so we feel an abundance of caution is wise and appropriate.
Given all this, we see a gross profit of about $235M on $500k monthly expenditures.
That yields about 800% Total Value to Paid In Capital, and an astouding ROI on expenditures of 2,000%
But that’s not the most exciting thing about this campaign.
The most exciting part of this campaign, is that the ENTIRE Bitcoin ecosystem is going to benefit commensurately.
This rising tide will lift all boats, help all businesses, all investors.
We’re excited about turning a good profit, but we sell this campaign as a once in a career opportunity to catapult an already successful industry into true mainstream success.
OK. Next slide…
Now let’s take a look at some boundary conditions.
On the downside, if BTC experiences just 0.5% MOM gains, we break even.
The best case scenario we modeled was the 10% MOM appreciation of the past 2+ years.
That yields an $840M profit, or a 7,000% ROI on campaign expenditures.
It seemed downright silly to us to model anything better than that.
Again, this virtuous cycle will lift all boats. The newly available capital to startups and established companies in the industry will be staggering.
Let’s get into the campaign specifics…
We’re looking at small, tech-savvy investors under 50 years old in a handful of tight geographic areas.
These locations are ideal for a few different reasons (existing BTC awareness, trading volumes, regulatory climate, etc).
What’s exciting is that just these small areas (relative to TAM) contain almost 50 million appropriate target customers.
That means we’ll only need a 2-year penetration rate of 1.1%, very conservative, to achieve our goal.
Plus, our two-year schedule means we’ll only need 2.5k new customers per target region per month, very conservative. That’s only about 80 customers per day per region.
California (8 million), Texas (6m), New York(7m), Florida(4m), the UK(8m), Tokyo(6m), Delhi(3m), Seoul(3m), and some region of Venezuela(1m)
Total = 45 million target customers
Means we need a penetration rate of just 1.1%
Current penetration of BTC is 0.60 million / 3,000 million internet users = 0.02%
OK. We’ve got our target, what do we pitch them?
Remembering Maslow’s hierarchy, we think these are the 6 strongest elements, the ones that will elicit the desired emotion to take the desired action.
Let’s review a couple of data points supporting our pitch elements…
In certain ways, Bitcoin is basically a tech stock, and we should pursue all tech stock investors
OK. Outreach Strategy.
At the risk of disappoining a certain Jamie Dimon in New York, we’re not talking about some MLM marketing scheme or a Russian/Chinese Ponzi game.
We’re proposing an online/offline affiliate marketing program. The same type of customer acquisition campaign used successfully by ALL of the largest online businesses in the world, and tens of thousands of smaller businesses.
Affiliate Marketing programs have been a core component of online (and offline) demand generation plans for decades.
Here’s a summary of what our Campaign will cost, and how long we’ll run it for. Though, candidly… there will be no reason to ever stop it if the ROI persists. We may run it forever.
I’ll just leave you with this reminder of the varying transportability and scarcity of money. I think it’s Zimbabwe…
REMINDER: I’m not calling for a replacement of fiat currency, or criticizing any government. Fiat currency is excellent for Unit of Account, and Means of Exchange. It just has problems with Store of Value, yet diligent money savers continue to use it.
Here’s a summary of what inspired me to get involved in Bitcoin in the first place.
I realized that Bitcoin, and crytpo-assets in general, bring together three very powerful forces on the world today, which I happen to have previous experience with.
To be sure there are many other forces as well (cryptography, peer-peer and open source software, politics, etc), but these are the three most important for this presentation.
Main Points:
Part of Bitcoin’s novelty, and power, is that it incorporates so many different Industries and Fields Of Study. Here are 10: Monetary History, Financial/Banking Systems, Economic Theory, Market Speculation, Cryptography, Open Source Software, Peer to Peer Networking, Ecommerce, Social Networking, and Politics.
Without detracting from any of these fascinating dimensions, these are the 3 that resonate most strongly with us, and convinced us to focus our investment activities here.
I think the complementary interaction between these 3 dimensions is what makes Bitcoin such a valuable new technology.
Also, I think these three dimension are likely to contribute dramatically to mainstream adoption.
In case there was any doubt, moneyness is important. We’re not alone in our appreciation of it.
Here’s a guy. His name was John Exter. He was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank in the mid-1900’s
He was very focused on “Moneyness”, as you can see in his quote and his pyramid.
He produced this inverted pyramid to compare different forms of money and assets, sort of like the SDDRFT I previously mentioned.
His position was that the scarcer forms of money were the most valuable/powerful.
REMINDER: I’m not calling for a replacement of fiat currency, or criticizing any government. Fiat currency is excellent for Unit of Account, and Means of Exchange. It just has problems with Store of Value, yet diligent money savers continue to use it.