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The New Industrial Revolution?
Exploring future scenarios of value creation
Professor Robin Teigland
Stockholm School of E...
People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Lifelong learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainabilit...
If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of
change on the inside,
the end is near....
-J...
Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme...
All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
w...
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
“We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change that
will occur in t...
2015
Smart Robots
H.I.S. Co. has two Henn na Hotels run
“entirely” by robots and plans to open 100 hotels.
Check-in
Other Automated Tasks
Co...
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
Technology replacing Energy and Banking
Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15...
FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 125,000 $60B
UBER 2009 11,000 $48B
MARRIOTT 1927 227,000 $51B
AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $3...
Shifting market logics
Ericsson & Augur 2011
B2B data platforms
McKinsey Sept 2018
Most heavy industries at
middle stages of digital maturity
• Data analytics
• Digital workforce
• Asset...
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Blockchain
Additive Manufacturing
Next Gen Computing
Digital Design, Simulation, Int...
Perception is linear but reality is exponential
https://www.compete.org/storage/reports/exponential_technologies_2018_stud...
Exploitation
Improving existing
value creation
activities
Exploration
Developing new
value creation
activities
Adapted fro...
Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague
A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
Knowledge: RepRap community
E-commerce: Aliexpress
My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!
Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks
Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle
with IBM Watson
https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-s...
3D printed complex structures with graphene
https://www.tctmagazine.com/3d-printing-news/researchers-new-3d-print-complex-...
Peniche Ocean Watch A Circular Economy where
Ocean meets Digitalization
€
Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies
https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html
Giggers, Entrepreneurs, and FTEs
in co-living/co-working spaces
https://www.outsite.co/
Blockchain to disrupt the energy sector?
Peer-to-Peer microgrids for renewable energy
ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient
http://www.regenvillages.com/
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
Transformation of economic activity
Centralized,
hierarchical
organizations
Decentralized,
self-organizing, autonomous
org...
So, how can we
prepare for the future?
Looking into the future?
• Forecast
– How we think the future will be
• Vision
– How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
...
Interdependent, yet quite different
elements of strategy
• Scenario Thinking
– Explore options. Practice divergent thinkin...
Two modes of thinking
https://cucumber.io/blog/2014/10/21/the-two-modes-of-thought-you-need-for-bdd
Boundary spanning enables scenario thinking
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practic...
BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…
…but with very different
access to signals, ideas, and resources
BA
The future is already here -
it’s just not very evenly
distributed.
- William Gibson
Signals from the periphery…
www.robinteigland.com
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
Robin.teigland@hhs.se
@RobinTeigland
The New Industrial Revolution? Exploring future scenarios of value creation
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The New Industrial Revolution? Exploring future scenarios of value creation

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Presentation for the Outotec Leaders' Forum in Helsinki in Sept 2018.

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The New Industrial Revolution? Exploring future scenarios of value creation

  1. 1. The New Industrial Revolution? Exploring future scenarios of value creation Professor Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | Robin.teigland@hhs.se | @RobinTeigland
  2. 2. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Gig economy • Lifelong learning • Sharing not owning • Sustainability Technology • AI/ML/DL/NN • Smart robotics & cognitive automation • Biotech/gene editing/biomanufacturing • Internet of Things • Interface of Things (AR/VR/Mixed) • Additive manufacturing • Advanced materials • Blockchain • Renewables • Quantum computing • Nanotechnology Open Source • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending • Cryptocurrencies/tokens • Blockchains, smart contracts • Mobile money and payments • M2M/R2R payments • Benefit Corporations
  3. 3. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
  4. 4. Digital is the main reason just over half the Fortune 500 companies have disappeared since the year 2000. -Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016 Yet..Digital disruption has only just begun.
  5. 5. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future Conway 2003 What we don’t know we don’t know about the future What we know What we know we don’t know
  6. 6. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  7. 7. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  8. 8. “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
  9. 9. 2015 Smart Robots
  10. 10. H.I.S. Co. has two Henn na Hotels run “entirely” by robots and plans to open 100 hotels. Check-in Other Automated Tasks Concierge, Porters, Cleaning, Lawnmowing, Room Service, Robot Trashcan, Robot fish 2017 Food deliveries
  11. 11. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
  12. 12. Technology replacing Energy and Banking Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/ $905B $660B$730B $512B 2018 $280B
  13. 13. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP BMW 1916 125,000 $60B UBER 2009 11,000 $48B MARRIOTT 1927 227,000 $51B AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $31B WALT DISNEY 1923 195,000 $167B FACEBOOK 2004 21,000 $512B WALMART 1962 2,300,000 $298B ALIBABA 1999 50,000 $469B Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated January 2018 Something fundamental is changing
  14. 14. Shifting market logics Ericsson & Augur 2011
  15. 15. B2B data platforms
  16. 16. McKinsey Sept 2018 Most heavy industries at middle stages of digital maturity • Data analytics • Digital workforce • Asset network value maximization • Robotics & cobotics
  17. 17. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
  18. 18. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Blockchain Additive Manufacturing Next Gen Computing Digital Design, Simulation, Integration Energy Storage Artificial Intelligence Interface of Things Smart Robotics & Cognitive Automation Advanced Analytics Advanced Materials Biotechnology/Biomanufacturing Internet of Things 2016 2021 Market Cap of Exponential Technologies USD Bln https://www.compete.org/storage/reports/exponential_technologies_2018_study.pdf
  19. 19. Perception is linear but reality is exponential https://www.compete.org/storage/reports/exponential_technologies_2018_study.pdf
  20. 20. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
  21. 21. Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague
  22. 22. A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat Knowledge: RepRap community E-commerce: Aliexpress
  23. 23. My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!
  24. 24. Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks
  25. 25. Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle with IBM Watson https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/ From 25-30,000 parts to 50 partsFrom 25-30,000 parts to 50 parts
  26. 26. 3D printed complex structures with graphene https://www.tctmagazine.com/3d-printing-news/researchers-new-3d-print-complex-structures-graphene/
  27. 27. Peniche Ocean Watch A Circular Economy where Ocean meets Digitalization €
  28. 28. Increasing forces for local community and circular economies
  29. 29. https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html
  30. 30. Giggers, Entrepreneurs, and FTEs in co-living/co-working spaces https://www.outsite.co/
  31. 31. Blockchain to disrupt the energy sector? Peer-to-Peer microgrids for renewable energy
  32. 32. ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient http://www.regenvillages.com/
  33. 33. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
  34. 34. Transformation of economic activity Centralized, hierarchical organizations Decentralized, self-organizing, autonomous organizations
  35. 35. So, how can we prepare for the future?
  36. 36. Looking into the future? • Forecast – How we think the future will be • Vision – How we want the future to be • Scenarios – What the future can be – “Alternative memories” from the future ? ? ? ?
  37. 37. Interdependent, yet quite different elements of strategy • Scenario Thinking – Explore options. Practice divergent thinking with incomplete/ambiguous information. • Strategy Development – Assess options. Examine choices and make decisions and/or set a direction. • Strategic Planning – Implement actions. Make it happen. Swinburne Distant future High uncertainty Here and now Low uncertainty
  38. 38. Two modes of thinking https://cucumber.io/blog/2014/10/21/the-two-modes-of-thought-you-need-for-bdd
  39. 39. Boundary spanning enables scenario thinking 1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers 2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery 3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment 4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks Boundary spanner
  40. 40. BA Two individuals (organizations) with the same number of contacts…
  41. 41. …but with very different access to signals, ideas, and resources BA
  42. 42. The future is already here - it’s just not very evenly distributed. - William Gibson Signals from the periphery…
  43. 43. www.robinteigland.com www.slideshare.net/eteigland Robin.teigland@hhs.se @RobinTeigland

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