I spoke at the Harvard Club in February of 2020 on renewable energy, how it can be used to provide a low carbon fuel to electric vehicles, and how both can play a greater role in reducing climate change and increasing jobs and economic growth if government policy helps promote the technologies.
1. On-the-Ground
Realities of
Renewable
Energy
Harvard Club of Dallas
February 26, 2020
Scott D. Deatherage
S Deatherage Law, PLLC
Environment. Energy. Water.
Chief Legal Officer, Alternative Resource Group
214-356-0979
scott@sdeatheragelaw.com
1 Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC
2. Renewable Energy Facts
Cheaper, Cleaner Energy Wins in the Marketplace
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 2
3. Terminology
• 1 megawatt or MW = 1000
kilowatts or kW
• 1000 MWs = 1 gigawatt or GW
• 1 MW powers about 1000 average
homes in Texas
• 1 GW powers about 1,000,000
average homes
• Hoover Dam is a 2 GW facility
4. Understanding
the Texas
Electricity Grid
and Market—
One of the
Most Open
Energy
Markets
• Electric Reliability Council of Texas or ERCOT serves
most of the population in Texas.
• Texas is a “de-regulated” market for retail electric
providers and generators; the transmission and
distribution operators remain regulated utilities.
• Generators of power must find buyers through
power purchase agreements or must be
“merchant” and sell into the market without a
predetermined buyer.
• ERCOT decides which generation sources may
transmit their electricity into the grid and in what
amounts and in what order--known as “dispatch.”
5. How Can the
Electricity Market
in One of the
Reddest, Least
Renewable
Friendly State Be
the Leader in
Wind Energy and
a Future Leader in
Solar Energy?
• De-regulated market, cheapest wins.
• No fuel cost energy dispatched first.
• Strong industrial, chemical, and
petrochemical lobby that promotes
cheap power and fights against
anything that interferes with cheap
power.
• Tremendous benefit to rural
landowners, farmers, and ranchers.
• Tax boon to rural counties and school
districts.
• Top energy professionals managing
ERCOT.
10. Supply and Demand in
the ERCOT Market
The December 2019 Capacity, Demand,
and Reserves (CDR) Report estimates a
10.6% reserve margin for summer 2020.
This is 2% higher than the 8.6% reserve
margin for summer 2019.
Natural Gas
47.0%
Coal
20.0%
Nuclear
11.0%
Wind
20.0%
Other*
2.0%
Total energy consumed:
384,040,338 MWh
1
0
11. Interconnection Queue Capacity by Fuel Type
and Projected Year
2020 2021 2022 2023
50 GW
40 GW
30 GW
20 GW
10 GW
0 GW
Gas Wind Solar Battery
(1) Queue totals are based on interconnection data from Jan. 1, 2020.
For 2020-2023, totals are: solar 68 GW (61%), wind 30 GW (27%), battery 8 GW (7%) and gas 6 GW (5%).
(2) Chart excludes proposed projects using other miscellaneous fuel sources totaling 363MW.
12. Closer Look at Prospective Utility-
Scale Solar Projects
85%
64.4 GW
Total planned
solar generation
2019* 2020 2021 2022
January
February 341 MW 206 MW
March
April 380 MW 790 MW
May 216 MW 1,106 MW 201 MW
June 1,004 MW 2,698 MW
July 400 MW
August
September 105 MW
October 150 MW
November 255 MW
December 200 MW 1,067 MW 304 MW
Grand Total 200 MW 3,517 MW 5,504 MW 201 MW
*Planned capacity in 2019 is due to one developer that failed to update their expired COD.
100 MW 2,700 MW
Most of the planned solar projects with signed
Interconnection Agreements are expected to
come online before summer 2021.
55 GW
No signed IA
9.4 GW
Signed
Interconnection
Agreement (IA)
15%
13. Electricity generation from natural gas and renewables increases as a result of lower natural gas prices and
declining costs of solar and wind renewable capacity, making these fuels increasingly competitive
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2019
history projections
Electricity generation from selected fuels
(AEO2020 Reference case)
billion kilowatthours
natural gas
renewables
nuclear
coal
36%
38%
12%
13%
19%
19%
37%
24%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Renewable electricity generation, including end use
(AEO2020 Reference case)
billion kilowatthours
2019
history projections
solar
wind
geothermal
hydroelectric
other
46%
38%
14%
33%
37%
7%
15%
3%
5%
2%
13
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (Jan. 29, 2020).
14. Closer Look at Peak Demand Day of August 12
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
WindOutput(GW)
Power(GW)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Delivery Hour
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Hydro
Coal
Wind
Renewables
Gas Traditional
Solar
Total Dispatch
Simple Cycle
Diesel
Wind Output
ERCOT “Peak” Hours
14
19. Global Decoupling of Global GDP and CO2
Emissions
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 19
20. Solar Growth
in Texas
Impact on
Coal, Natural
Gas, and
Nuclear
Power
Generation
• “Energy experts predict that as the
solar industry grows, it will disrupt the
status quo much as low-cost wind
generators did, driving down power
prices and profits of coal, natural gas
and nuclear generation. Solar,
however, may pose an even greater
threat because unlike wind, it
produces the most power when
demand is highest — hot, sunny
summer afternoons.”
Sixel, L.M., Solar expected to disrupt Texas fossil-fuel apple
cart, Houston Chronicle (Dec. 2, 2019),
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/S
olar-expected-to-disrupt-Texas-fossil-fuel-apple-14874064.php.
21. Texas Clean
Energy Jobs
233,000 total
• 25,000 wind
• 11,000 solar
• 163,000 in energy-
efficiency
• 18,000 electric
vehicles
Sixel, L.M, California has the most clean energy jobs
but Texas is No. 2, Houston Chronicle (Mar. 19, 2019).
23. Energy Storage
Rapidly Decreasing Price and Technology Advantages Leads to Growth
in Battery Sales
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 23
24. Energy Storage Price Decreasing Rapidly
Copyright 2019. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 24
The Business Council for Sustainable Energy 2020 Sustainable Energy in America,
http://www.bcse.org/factbook/#
27. Electrification of Transportation
Coupled with Renewable
Energy
Growth of Electric Vehicles Rapidly Increasing Demand for EV
Charging/Renewable Energy Can Be the Transportation Fuel of the Future
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 27
28. Tesla Model 3 Outsells BMW 3 Series,
Mercedes C Class, and Audi Q4 Combined
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 28
30. Cheaper, Cleaner Transportation
Problem
Car and trucks cause serious local air
pollution and contribute to climate
change; local air fails to meet Clean Air
Act health standards
Solution
Electric Vehicles + Renewable Energy =
No local air pollution/low greenhouse
gases
31. Transition to Renewable
Capitalism
Climate Action Pressures from Investors and Shareholders and
Profitable Investment Opportunities Driving Shift to Investment in
Renewable Companies and Technologies
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 31
32. Finance: Corporate Procurement of
Clean Energy in the U.S.
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 32
33. Texas Is the Center of the Global Corporate
Renewable Energy Market
33
• Big corporations love
cheap renewable power
for GHG reductions and
sustainability reporting,
and Texas has it in
abundance.
• In 2018, 1.6 gigawatts of
corporate renewable
PPAs were signed in
Texas.
• Examples of Texas projects
• Apple 75 MW wind
• Facebook 375 MW solar
• Starbucks 8 solar
projects to supply power
to 360 stores
• Dow Chemical 150 MW
wind
• ExxonMobil 250 MW
solar and 250 MW wind
• Occidental 109 MW solar
34. Major
Announcements
by Business and
Financial Entities
Regarding
Climate Change
• “The response to climate change should be motivated not only by
central estimates of outcomes but also by the likelihood of extreme
events. We cannot rule out catastrophic outcomes where human life as
we know it is threatened.” JP Morgan Economists Warn of
“Catastrophic” Climate Change, BBC News (Feb. 21, 2020).
• “We are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance. The
evidence on climate risk is compelling investors to reassess core
assumptions about modern finance.” Fortune, BlackRock CEO’s Letter
on Climate Change Signals Where Finance Is Headed (Jan. 15, 2020).
• “Climate change is the biggest threat to our planet. I want to work
alongside others both to amplify known ways and to explore new ways
of fighting the devastating impact of climate change on this planet we
all share.” Wall Street Journal, Jeff Bezos Pledges $10 Billion to Tackle
Climate Change (Feb. 7, 2020).
• Fortune, Microsoft Is Going Carbon Negative. What Does That Mean?
(Jan 20, 2020).
• BP’s new CEO Bernard Looney made his big green pitch: Europe’s
second-largest oil company will cut its emissions to net zero by 2050.
BP boss Looney sets out to 'reinvent' oil giant with zero carbon goal
• Project Gigaton: Walmart initiative to avoid one billion metric tons (a
gigaton) of greenhouse gases from the global value chain by 2030
through supplier commitments. CNBC, Behind Walmart’s push to
eliminate 1 gigaton of greenhouse gases by 2030 (Dec. 15, 2019).
35. Political and Policy Challenges
Enacting or Extending Renewable Energy, Energy Storage, and Electric
Vehicle Tax Incentives; Defeat State and Federal Legislation and
Regulation Designed to Reduce the Growth of These Technologies
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 35
36. Challenges
• Market forces and technology are driving
the low carbon energy and transportation
transition.
• Some politicians and appointed officials at
the state and federal level attempting to
thwart renewable energy and climate
action to protect incumbent energy sources
from market forces.
• Goals for Renewable Energy Industry
• Extend renewable energy tax incentives for
another five years.
• Enact tax incentives for energy storage.
• Extend electric vehicle incentives for Tesla and
other auto manufacturers.
• End or defeat legislative and regulatory
attempts to restrict renewable energy, energy
storage, and electric vehicles.
37. Conclusions
• The Future Is Cheaper, Cleaner
Energy in Texas and Globally.
• Renewable Energy Produces Job and
Economic Growth.
• Renewable Capitalism Is Taking
Advantage of Financial
Opportunities.
• All Contribute to Reducing Climate
Change.
• We Need to Accelerate Energy
Transformation to Avoid Worst
Effects of Climate Change.
38. Scott D. Deatherage
S Deatherage Law, PLLC
Environment. Energy. Water.
214-983-1218
scott@sdeatheragelaw.com
32 years as an environmental and energy attorney.
Negotiated over 50 solar leases and sales of more than 15 solar
projects.
Created and negotiated energy storage agreements, including
demand response-based, distributed projects.
Advised clients in utility-scale and distributed energy and
energy storage projects.
Experienced in drafting and negotiating over utility-scale solar
leases, commercial and industrial power purchase agreements
and leases, energy storage agreements, membership interest
purchase agreements for sale of renewable energy, EPC
contracts, and other related agreements.
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 38