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On-the-Ground
Realities of
Renewable
Energy
Harvard Club of Dallas
February 26, 2020
Scott D. Deatherage
S Deatherage Law, PLLC
Environment. Energy. Water.
Chief Legal Officer, Alternative Resource Group
214-356-0979
scott@sdeatheragelaw.com
1 Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC
Renewable Energy Facts
Cheaper, Cleaner Energy Wins in the Marketplace
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 2
Terminology
• 1 megawatt or MW = 1000
kilowatts or kW
• 1000 MWs = 1 gigawatt or GW
• 1 MW powers about 1000 average
homes in Texas
• 1 GW powers about 1,000,000
average homes
• Hoover Dam is a 2 GW facility
Understanding
the Texas
Electricity Grid
and Market—
One of the
Most Open
Energy
Markets
• Electric Reliability Council of Texas or ERCOT serves
most of the population in Texas.
• Texas is a “de-regulated” market for retail electric
providers and generators; the transmission and
distribution operators remain regulated utilities.
• Generators of power must find buyers through
power purchase agreements or must be
“merchant” and sell into the market without a
predetermined buyer.
• ERCOT decides which generation sources may
transmit their electricity into the grid and in what
amounts and in what order--known as “dispatch.”
How Can the
Electricity Market
in One of the
Reddest, Least
Renewable
Friendly State Be
the Leader in
Wind Energy and
a Future Leader in
Solar Energy?
• De-regulated market, cheapest wins.
• No fuel cost energy dispatched first.
• Strong industrial, chemical, and
petrochemical lobby that promotes
cheap power and fights against
anything that interferes with cheap
power.
• Tremendous benefit to rural
landowners, farmers, and ranchers.
• Tax boon to rural counties and school
districts.
• Top energy professionals managing
ERCOT.
Wind Price and Cumulative Wind Capacity--
EIA
Copyright 2019. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 9
Supply and Demand in
the ERCOT Market
The December 2019 Capacity, Demand,
and Reserves (CDR) Report estimates a
10.6% reserve margin for summer 2020.
This is 2% higher than the 8.6% reserve
margin for summer 2019.
Natural Gas
47.0%
Coal
20.0%
Nuclear
11.0%
Wind
20.0%
Other*
2.0%
Total energy consumed:
384,040,338 MWh
1
0
Interconnection Queue Capacity by Fuel Type
and Projected Year
2020 2021 2022 2023
50 GW
40 GW
30 GW
20 GW
10 GW
0 GW
Gas Wind Solar Battery
(1) Queue totals are based on interconnection data from Jan. 1, 2020.
For 2020-2023, totals are: solar 68 GW (61%), wind 30 GW (27%), battery 8 GW (7%) and gas 6 GW (5%).
(2) Chart excludes proposed projects using other miscellaneous fuel sources totaling 363MW.
Closer Look at Prospective Utility-
Scale Solar Projects
85%
64.4 GW
Total planned
solar generation
2019* 2020 2021 2022
January
February 341 MW 206 MW
March
April 380 MW 790 MW
May 216 MW 1,106 MW 201 MW
June 1,004 MW 2,698 MW
July 400 MW
August
September 105 MW
October 150 MW
November 255 MW
December 200 MW 1,067 MW 304 MW
Grand Total 200 MW 3,517 MW 5,504 MW 201 MW
*Planned capacity in 2019 is due to one developer that failed to update their expired COD.
100 MW 2,700 MW
Most of the planned solar projects with signed
Interconnection Agreements are expected to
come online before summer 2021.
55 GW
No signed IA
9.4 GW
Signed
Interconnection
Agreement (IA)
15%
Electricity generation from natural gas and renewables increases as a result of lower natural gas prices and
declining costs of solar and wind renewable capacity, making these fuels increasingly competitive
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2019
history projections
Electricity generation from selected fuels
(AEO2020 Reference case)
billion kilowatthours
natural gas
renewables
nuclear
coal
36%
38%
12%
13%
19%
19%
37%
24%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Renewable electricity generation, including end use
(AEO2020 Reference case)
billion kilowatthours
2019
history projections
solar
wind
geothermal
hydroelectric
other
46%
38%
14%
33%
37%
7%
15%
3%
5%
2%
13
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (Jan. 29, 2020).
Closer Look at Peak Demand Day of August 12
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
WindOutput(GW)
Power(GW)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Delivery Hour
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Hydro
Coal
Wind
Renewables
Gas Traditional
Solar
Total Dispatch
Simple Cycle
Diesel
Wind Output
ERCOT “Peak” Hours
14
California “Duck Curve”California “Duck Curve”
Impact of Renewable Energy
Decoupling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Economic Growth
16
Declining Demand for Coal-Generated
Power: Texas Example
Global Decoupling of Global GDP and CO2
Emissions
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 19
Solar Growth
in Texas
Impact on
Coal, Natural
Gas, and
Nuclear
Power
Generation
• “Energy experts predict that as the
solar industry grows, it will disrupt the
status quo much as low-cost wind
generators did, driving down power
prices and profits of coal, natural gas
and nuclear generation. Solar,
however, may pose an even greater
threat because unlike wind, it
produces the most power when
demand is highest — hot, sunny
summer afternoons.”
Sixel, L.M., Solar expected to disrupt Texas fossil-fuel apple
cart, Houston Chronicle (Dec. 2, 2019),
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/S
olar-expected-to-disrupt-Texas-fossil-fuel-apple-14874064.php.
Texas Clean
Energy Jobs
233,000 total
• 25,000 wind
• 11,000 solar
• 163,000 in energy-
efficiency
• 18,000 electric
vehicles
Sixel, L.M, California has the most clean energy jobs
but Texas is No. 2, Houston Chronicle (Mar. 19, 2019).
U.S. Energy
Jobs
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 22
Energy Storage
Rapidly Decreasing Price and Technology Advantages Leads to Growth
in Battery Sales
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 23
Energy Storage Price Decreasing Rapidly
Copyright 2019. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 24
The Business Council for Sustainable Energy 2020 Sustainable Energy in America,
http://www.bcse.org/factbook/#
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 25
Solar + Storage Operating Optimization
26
Electrification of Transportation
Coupled with Renewable
Energy
Growth of Electric Vehicles Rapidly Increasing Demand for EV
Charging/Renewable Energy Can Be the Transportation Fuel of the Future
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 27
Tesla Model 3 Outsells BMW 3 Series,
Mercedes C Class, and Audi Q4 Combined
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 28
Operational Costs: Electric Vehicle vs. Internal
Combustion Engine
Cost Savings Pushes Adoption
Cheaper, Cleaner Transportation
Problem
Car and trucks cause serious local air
pollution and contribute to climate
change; local air fails to meet Clean Air
Act health standards
Solution
Electric Vehicles + Renewable Energy =
No local air pollution/low greenhouse
gases
Transition to Renewable
Capitalism
Climate Action Pressures from Investors and Shareholders and
Profitable Investment Opportunities Driving Shift to Investment in
Renewable Companies and Technologies
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 31
Finance: Corporate Procurement of
Clean Energy in the U.S.
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 32
Texas Is the Center of the Global Corporate
Renewable Energy Market
33
• Big corporations love
cheap renewable power
for GHG reductions and
sustainability reporting,
and Texas has it in
abundance.
• In 2018, 1.6 gigawatts of
corporate renewable
PPAs were signed in
Texas.
• Examples of Texas projects
• Apple 75 MW wind
• Facebook 375 MW solar
• Starbucks 8 solar
projects to supply power
to 360 stores
• Dow Chemical 150 MW
wind
• ExxonMobil 250 MW
solar and 250 MW wind
• Occidental 109 MW solar
Major
Announcements
by Business and
Financial Entities
Regarding
Climate Change
• “The response to climate change should be motivated not only by
central estimates of outcomes but also by the likelihood of extreme
events. We cannot rule out catastrophic outcomes where human life as
we know it is threatened.” JP Morgan Economists Warn of
“Catastrophic” Climate Change, BBC News (Feb. 21, 2020).
• “We are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance. The
evidence on climate risk is compelling investors to reassess core
assumptions about modern finance.” Fortune, BlackRock CEO’s Letter
on Climate Change Signals Where Finance Is Headed (Jan. 15, 2020).
• “Climate change is the biggest threat to our planet. I want to work
alongside others both to amplify known ways and to explore new ways
of fighting the devastating impact of climate change on this planet we
all share.” Wall Street Journal, Jeff Bezos Pledges $10 Billion to Tackle
Climate Change (Feb. 7, 2020).
• Fortune, Microsoft Is Going Carbon Negative. What Does That Mean?
(Jan 20, 2020).
• BP’s new CEO Bernard Looney made his big green pitch: Europe’s
second-largest oil company will cut its emissions to net zero by 2050.
BP boss Looney sets out to 'reinvent' oil giant with zero carbon goal
• Project Gigaton: Walmart initiative to avoid one billion metric tons (a
gigaton) of greenhouse gases from the global value chain by 2030
through supplier commitments. CNBC, Behind Walmart’s push to
eliminate 1 gigaton of greenhouse gases by 2030 (Dec. 15, 2019).
Political and Policy Challenges
Enacting or Extending Renewable Energy, Energy Storage, and Electric
Vehicle Tax Incentives; Defeat State and Federal Legislation and
Regulation Designed to Reduce the Growth of These Technologies
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 35
Challenges
• Market forces and technology are driving
the low carbon energy and transportation
transition.
• Some politicians and appointed officials at
the state and federal level attempting to
thwart renewable energy and climate
action to protect incumbent energy sources
from market forces.
• Goals for Renewable Energy Industry
• Extend renewable energy tax incentives for
another five years.
• Enact tax incentives for energy storage.
• Extend electric vehicle incentives for Tesla and
other auto manufacturers.
• End or defeat legislative and regulatory
attempts to restrict renewable energy, energy
storage, and electric vehicles.
Conclusions
• The Future Is Cheaper, Cleaner
Energy in Texas and Globally.
• Renewable Energy Produces Job and
Economic Growth.
• Renewable Capitalism Is Taking
Advantage of Financial
Opportunities.
• All Contribute to Reducing Climate
Change.
• We Need to Accelerate Energy
Transformation to Avoid Worst
Effects of Climate Change.
Scott D. Deatherage
S Deatherage Law, PLLC
Environment. Energy. Water.
214-983-1218
scott@sdeatheragelaw.com
32 years as an environmental and energy attorney.
Negotiated over 50 solar leases and sales of more than 15 solar
projects.
Created and negotiated energy storage agreements, including
demand response-based, distributed projects.
Advised clients in utility-scale and distributed energy and
energy storage projects.
Experienced in drafting and negotiating over utility-scale solar
leases, commercial and industrial power purchase agreements
and leases, energy storage agreements, membership interest
purchase agreements for sale of renewable energy, EPC
contracts, and other related agreements.
Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 38

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On the Ground Realities of Renewable Energy

  • 1. On-the-Ground Realities of Renewable Energy Harvard Club of Dallas February 26, 2020 Scott D. Deatherage S Deatherage Law, PLLC Environment. Energy. Water. Chief Legal Officer, Alternative Resource Group 214-356-0979 scott@sdeatheragelaw.com 1 Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC
  • 2. Renewable Energy Facts Cheaper, Cleaner Energy Wins in the Marketplace Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 2
  • 3. Terminology • 1 megawatt or MW = 1000 kilowatts or kW • 1000 MWs = 1 gigawatt or GW • 1 MW powers about 1000 average homes in Texas • 1 GW powers about 1,000,000 average homes • Hoover Dam is a 2 GW facility
  • 4. Understanding the Texas Electricity Grid and Market— One of the Most Open Energy Markets • Electric Reliability Council of Texas or ERCOT serves most of the population in Texas. • Texas is a “de-regulated” market for retail electric providers and generators; the transmission and distribution operators remain regulated utilities. • Generators of power must find buyers through power purchase agreements or must be “merchant” and sell into the market without a predetermined buyer. • ERCOT decides which generation sources may transmit their electricity into the grid and in what amounts and in what order--known as “dispatch.”
  • 5. How Can the Electricity Market in One of the Reddest, Least Renewable Friendly State Be the Leader in Wind Energy and a Future Leader in Solar Energy? • De-regulated market, cheapest wins. • No fuel cost energy dispatched first. • Strong industrial, chemical, and petrochemical lobby that promotes cheap power and fights against anything that interferes with cheap power. • Tremendous benefit to rural landowners, farmers, and ranchers. • Tax boon to rural counties and school districts. • Top energy professionals managing ERCOT.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Wind Price and Cumulative Wind Capacity-- EIA
  • 9. Copyright 2019. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 9
  • 10. Supply and Demand in the ERCOT Market The December 2019 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) Report estimates a 10.6% reserve margin for summer 2020. This is 2% higher than the 8.6% reserve margin for summer 2019. Natural Gas 47.0% Coal 20.0% Nuclear 11.0% Wind 20.0% Other* 2.0% Total energy consumed: 384,040,338 MWh 1 0
  • 11. Interconnection Queue Capacity by Fuel Type and Projected Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 GW 40 GW 30 GW 20 GW 10 GW 0 GW Gas Wind Solar Battery (1) Queue totals are based on interconnection data from Jan. 1, 2020. For 2020-2023, totals are: solar 68 GW (61%), wind 30 GW (27%), battery 8 GW (7%) and gas 6 GW (5%). (2) Chart excludes proposed projects using other miscellaneous fuel sources totaling 363MW.
  • 12. Closer Look at Prospective Utility- Scale Solar Projects 85% 64.4 GW Total planned solar generation 2019* 2020 2021 2022 January February 341 MW 206 MW March April 380 MW 790 MW May 216 MW 1,106 MW 201 MW June 1,004 MW 2,698 MW July 400 MW August September 105 MW October 150 MW November 255 MW December 200 MW 1,067 MW 304 MW Grand Total 200 MW 3,517 MW 5,504 MW 201 MW *Planned capacity in 2019 is due to one developer that failed to update their expired COD. 100 MW 2,700 MW Most of the planned solar projects with signed Interconnection Agreements are expected to come online before summer 2021. 55 GW No signed IA 9.4 GW Signed Interconnection Agreement (IA) 15%
  • 13. Electricity generation from natural gas and renewables increases as a result of lower natural gas prices and declining costs of solar and wind renewable capacity, making these fuels increasingly competitive 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2019 history projections Electricity generation from selected fuels (AEO2020 Reference case) billion kilowatthours natural gas renewables nuclear coal 36% 38% 12% 13% 19% 19% 37% 24% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewable electricity generation, including end use (AEO2020 Reference case) billion kilowatthours 2019 history projections solar wind geothermal hydroelectric other 46% 38% 14% 33% 37% 7% 15% 3% 5% 2% 13 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (Jan. 29, 2020).
  • 14. Closer Look at Peak Demand Day of August 12 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 WindOutput(GW) Power(GW) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Delivery Hour Nuclear Combined Cycle Hydro Coal Wind Renewables Gas Traditional Solar Total Dispatch Simple Cycle Diesel Wind Output ERCOT “Peak” Hours 14
  • 16. Impact of Renewable Energy Decoupling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Economic Growth 16
  • 17. Declining Demand for Coal-Generated Power: Texas Example
  • 18.
  • 19. Global Decoupling of Global GDP and CO2 Emissions Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 19
  • 20. Solar Growth in Texas Impact on Coal, Natural Gas, and Nuclear Power Generation • “Energy experts predict that as the solar industry grows, it will disrupt the status quo much as low-cost wind generators did, driving down power prices and profits of coal, natural gas and nuclear generation. Solar, however, may pose an even greater threat because unlike wind, it produces the most power when demand is highest — hot, sunny summer afternoons.” Sixel, L.M., Solar expected to disrupt Texas fossil-fuel apple cart, Houston Chronicle (Dec. 2, 2019), https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/S olar-expected-to-disrupt-Texas-fossil-fuel-apple-14874064.php.
  • 21. Texas Clean Energy Jobs 233,000 total • 25,000 wind • 11,000 solar • 163,000 in energy- efficiency • 18,000 electric vehicles Sixel, L.M, California has the most clean energy jobs but Texas is No. 2, Houston Chronicle (Mar. 19, 2019).
  • 22. U.S. Energy Jobs Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 22
  • 23. Energy Storage Rapidly Decreasing Price and Technology Advantages Leads to Growth in Battery Sales Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 23
  • 24. Energy Storage Price Decreasing Rapidly Copyright 2019. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 24 The Business Council for Sustainable Energy 2020 Sustainable Energy in America, http://www.bcse.org/factbook/#
  • 25. Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 25
  • 26. Solar + Storage Operating Optimization 26
  • 27. Electrification of Transportation Coupled with Renewable Energy Growth of Electric Vehicles Rapidly Increasing Demand for EV Charging/Renewable Energy Can Be the Transportation Fuel of the Future Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 27
  • 28. Tesla Model 3 Outsells BMW 3 Series, Mercedes C Class, and Audi Q4 Combined Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 28
  • 29. Operational Costs: Electric Vehicle vs. Internal Combustion Engine Cost Savings Pushes Adoption
  • 30. Cheaper, Cleaner Transportation Problem Car and trucks cause serious local air pollution and contribute to climate change; local air fails to meet Clean Air Act health standards Solution Electric Vehicles + Renewable Energy = No local air pollution/low greenhouse gases
  • 31. Transition to Renewable Capitalism Climate Action Pressures from Investors and Shareholders and Profitable Investment Opportunities Driving Shift to Investment in Renewable Companies and Technologies Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 31
  • 32. Finance: Corporate Procurement of Clean Energy in the U.S. Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 32
  • 33. Texas Is the Center of the Global Corporate Renewable Energy Market 33 • Big corporations love cheap renewable power for GHG reductions and sustainability reporting, and Texas has it in abundance. • In 2018, 1.6 gigawatts of corporate renewable PPAs were signed in Texas. • Examples of Texas projects • Apple 75 MW wind • Facebook 375 MW solar • Starbucks 8 solar projects to supply power to 360 stores • Dow Chemical 150 MW wind • ExxonMobil 250 MW solar and 250 MW wind • Occidental 109 MW solar
  • 34. Major Announcements by Business and Financial Entities Regarding Climate Change • “The response to climate change should be motivated not only by central estimates of outcomes but also by the likelihood of extreme events. We cannot rule out catastrophic outcomes where human life as we know it is threatened.” JP Morgan Economists Warn of “Catastrophic” Climate Change, BBC News (Feb. 21, 2020). • “We are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance. The evidence on climate risk is compelling investors to reassess core assumptions about modern finance.” Fortune, BlackRock CEO’s Letter on Climate Change Signals Where Finance Is Headed (Jan. 15, 2020). • “Climate change is the biggest threat to our planet. I want to work alongside others both to amplify known ways and to explore new ways of fighting the devastating impact of climate change on this planet we all share.” Wall Street Journal, Jeff Bezos Pledges $10 Billion to Tackle Climate Change (Feb. 7, 2020). • Fortune, Microsoft Is Going Carbon Negative. What Does That Mean? (Jan 20, 2020). • BP’s new CEO Bernard Looney made his big green pitch: Europe’s second-largest oil company will cut its emissions to net zero by 2050. BP boss Looney sets out to 'reinvent' oil giant with zero carbon goal • Project Gigaton: Walmart initiative to avoid one billion metric tons (a gigaton) of greenhouse gases from the global value chain by 2030 through supplier commitments. CNBC, Behind Walmart’s push to eliminate 1 gigaton of greenhouse gases by 2030 (Dec. 15, 2019).
  • 35. Political and Policy Challenges Enacting or Extending Renewable Energy, Energy Storage, and Electric Vehicle Tax Incentives; Defeat State and Federal Legislation and Regulation Designed to Reduce the Growth of These Technologies Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 35
  • 36. Challenges • Market forces and technology are driving the low carbon energy and transportation transition. • Some politicians and appointed officials at the state and federal level attempting to thwart renewable energy and climate action to protect incumbent energy sources from market forces. • Goals for Renewable Energy Industry • Extend renewable energy tax incentives for another five years. • Enact tax incentives for energy storage. • Extend electric vehicle incentives for Tesla and other auto manufacturers. • End or defeat legislative and regulatory attempts to restrict renewable energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles.
  • 37. Conclusions • The Future Is Cheaper, Cleaner Energy in Texas and Globally. • Renewable Energy Produces Job and Economic Growth. • Renewable Capitalism Is Taking Advantage of Financial Opportunities. • All Contribute to Reducing Climate Change. • We Need to Accelerate Energy Transformation to Avoid Worst Effects of Climate Change.
  • 38. Scott D. Deatherage S Deatherage Law, PLLC Environment. Energy. Water. 214-983-1218 scott@sdeatheragelaw.com 32 years as an environmental and energy attorney. Negotiated over 50 solar leases and sales of more than 15 solar projects. Created and negotiated energy storage agreements, including demand response-based, distributed projects. Advised clients in utility-scale and distributed energy and energy storage projects. Experienced in drafting and negotiating over utility-scale solar leases, commercial and industrial power purchase agreements and leases, energy storage agreements, membership interest purchase agreements for sale of renewable energy, EPC contracts, and other related agreements. Copyright 2020. Scott D Deatherage, S Deatherage Law, PLLC 38