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November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 1
LENRs could enable Moore’s Law for Energy
Expon...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 2
Commercializing a next-generation source of gre...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 3
Commercializing a next-generation source of gre...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 4
By the world very gradually switching power gen...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 5
Commercializing a next-generation source of gre...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 6
Lattice Energy LLC
November 19, 2014 Lattice En...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 7
Exponential functions and nonlinear growth …………...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 8
Exponential processes can be hard to grasp with...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 9
Nonlinear phenomena can rapidly increase or dec...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 10
Numerical values of both x-axis and y-axis sca...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 11
If linear x-axis values plotted against y-axis...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 12
Number of transistors per IC chip will increas...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 13
Growth in total number of transistors per IC c...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 14
Individual transistor size decreased while inc...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 15
x-axis scale is linear and y-axis scale is log...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 16
Moore’s Law from 1900 re $ cost and speed of c...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 17
Price per transistor decreased exponentially o...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 18
Was developed and elaborated by Boston Consult...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 19
Cost/megawatt for steam turbines dropped as un...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 20
Enormous decreases in size with vastly greater...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 21
New technologies under development can extend ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 22
Subjective chart shows selected examples of im...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 23
Chart reflects views of Hong Kong Polytechnic ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 24
Patents can be viewed as quantitative proxy fo...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 25
Patents increased exponentially ever since lat...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 26
Total number of energy-related nanotech patent...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 27
Advances in theoretical physics sometimes enab...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 28
Edison knew that mass production of electricit...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 29
Edison’s prophecy was right: exponential decre...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 30
Exponential decrease in price from 1880 - 1970...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 31
At the grid level electricity is non storable ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 32
USA went through a linear phase, steady-state,...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 33
US population growth has been uninterruptedly ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 34
Introduction of automobiles, urban electrifica...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 35
US market growth rates variable: television mu...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 36
Former “Third World” countries are presently g...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 37
Huge Internet growth since 1993 increases ener...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 38
Petroleum consumption grew exponentially until...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 39
Future global demand for energy will be very s...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 40
“The rise of distributed power” see Fig. 7 on ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 41
Growth in total Carbon emissions has stayed ~ ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 42
Latest data suggests that population growth is...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 43
If present global warming is caused by O2 comb...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 44
Table 1. Electricity Access in 2008: Regional ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 45
LENR technology could someday help end energy ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 46
Published in “The Christian Science Monitor” o...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 47
Fossil fuel reserves will be exhausted within ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 48
S-curves are sigmoid and describe an entire li...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 49
S-curves are sigmoid and describe an entire li...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 50
Source: http://theenergycollective.com/onclima...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 51
Batteries cannot overcome the limitations of s...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 52
Maturity of combustion and battery technologie...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 53
Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detai...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 54
Oil price determined by dynamic supply/demand ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 55
Oil price drop orderly despite huge supply inc...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 56
Example of very disorderly lightning-fast pric...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 57
Data through October 24, 2014
Oil price drop o...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 58
Graph of inflation-adjusted WTI crude oil pric...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 59
Graph of nominal and real crude oil prices fro...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 60
Graph of nominal and real gasoline prices from...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 61
Consensus world GDP forecast vs. the price of ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 62
Brent oil price better reflects global supply/...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 63
Like many commodities oil has forward futures ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 64
Periods of excess supply are green; tight supp...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 65
Price declines ~coincide with backwardation g ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 66
Signs of a shift from temporary oversupply of ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 67
Barring unexpected global economic or bio cata...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 68
Given global warming if this happens CO2 emiss...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 69
Nuclear energy density vastly >>> solar, wind,...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 70
David Holmgren has envisioned four alternative...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 71
Enormous energy density advantage vs. ordinary...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 72
Commercializing a next-generation source of gr...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 73
Being driven to nm length-scales in a quest fo...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 74
Theoretical breakthrough achieved by combining...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 75
Theoretical breakthrough achieved by combining...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 76
Image credit: co-author Domenico Pacifici
From...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 77
Guided by physics of the Widom-Larsen theory,
...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 78
Lack of hard radiation eliminates heavy shield...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 79
Reaction Type Typical “Average” Energy Release...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 80
57,500,000 (maximum theoretical energy
density...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 81
Basic reactions in Widom-Larsen theory are sim...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 82
Anatomy of a micron-scale LENR-active surface ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 83
Input energy creates very high electric fields...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 84
LENRs occur in microscopic active sites found ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 85
LENR sites are analogous to transistors in com...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 86
LENRs could power Rankine and Brayton cycle en...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 87
LENR ultra low-energy neutrons are extremely s...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 88
Release of nuclear binding energy creates vast...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 89
LENR technology can transform today’s fossil f...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 90
CH
H
H H
H
H
Aromatic ring:
6 Carbon
atoms
CC
...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 91
Convert ring Hydrogen atoms (protons) into saf...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 92
Carbon transmutation releases > 5,000x more sy...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 93
Transformation of oil and coal into CO2-free e...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 94
LENRs can end combustion of coal: CH4 + 2 O2 →...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 95
Lattice’s commercialization strategy akin to c...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 96
 Over time, plan to ride down manufacturing e...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 97
Sustainable economic growth could be achieved ...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 98
Partnering on commercialization and consulting...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 99
Commercializing a next-generation source of gr...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 100
Additional reading for the technically inclin...
November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 101November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyrigh...
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Lattice Energy LLC - LENRs Could Enable a Moores Law for Energy - Nov 19 2014

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Uniquely radiation-free LENRs could enable a Moore’s Law for Energy: exponential increases in our available energy supplies will be needed to meet future global demand arising from achieving universal electrification and Internet connectivity at reasonable societal cost, along with a concomitant drastic reduction of CO2 emissions.

This is the only entirely new type of primary energy technology on the foreseeable horizon that can potentially extend the lifetime of present fossil fuel reserves by transforming aromatic fractions of oil and coal into 21st century green CO2-free LENR fuels as well as providing the world economy with an extremely dense source of affordable green energy, connecting the unconnected, and empowering billions of presently powerless people.

Published in: Technology
  • Feb. 18, 2015: revised and added Slides #54 - 66 in “LENRs could enable Moore’s Law for Energy”: concisely outline key forces driving the ~50% decline in the global crude oil price since July 2014; also note important economic/market “canary in the coal mine” signs to watch for that could signal an interim bottoming in the price level. Also discuss implications of high likelihood for continued long-term exponential growth in global energy demand as it could potentially affect the future real price of energy writ large.
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  • Dec. 28, 2014: added Slide #60 - chart posted Dec. 17 on Twitter shows one potential reason behind recent decline in crude oil price
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  • Added new Slide #6 today: commercializing LENRs could solve the future "Carbon bubble" stranded fossil fuel assets risk that is now worrying the Bank of England and other institutions. In Dec. 1 story in The Guardian online by Damian Carrington, quoting directly " "The Bank of England is to conduct an enquiry into the risk of fossil fuel companies causing a major economic crash if future climate change rules render their coal, oil and gas assets worthless ... The concern is that if the world’s government’s meet their agreed target of limiting global warming to 2C by cutting carbon emissions, then about two-thirds of proven coal, oil and gas reserves cannot be burned. With fossil fuel companies being among the largest in the world, sharp losses in their value could prompt a new economic crisis.”
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  • Nice work Lewis, please keep going you are doing great!
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Lattice Energy LLC - LENRs Could Enable a Moores Law for Energy - Nov 19 2014

  1. 1. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 1 LENRs could enable Moore’s Law for Energy Exponential increases in our energy supplies are needed To meet future demand from universal electrification and connectivity at a reasonable societal cost along with drastic reduction of CO2 emissions Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Lattice Energy LLC Contact us directly for further details: 1-312-861-0115 lewisglarsen@gmail.com http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/presentations Lewis Larsen President and CEO Lattice Energy LLC November 19, 2014 “Energy, broadly defined, has become the most important geostrategic and geoeconomic challenge of our time.” Thomas Friedman New York Times, April 28, 2006 Feb. 18, 2015: added & revised in Slides #54 - 66; discuss reasons for oil price drop since July 2014 and what signs may signal a bottom
  2. 2. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 2 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Key take-away points about LENRs and future of energy Make no mistake -- real price of oil still remains in a long-term uptrend Key macroeconomic datum: today’s real price of oil is still high in historical terms To use American football slang, today’s price weakness in crude oil markets is very likely to be a “head fake” - temporary misdirection about market’s long-term direction In context of huge increases in U.S. oil and gas production thanks to fracking, such price weakness has caused much hand-wringing by many pundits and media about the possibility of an even further collapse in oil prices - we beg to disagree with that view Underneath all of this - barring some freakish economic shock event - world economic activity is still gradually crawling out of the aftermath of the Great Recession in fits and starts with GDP now decelerating in China and Europe; U.S. economy finally starting to reaccelerate smoothly; that has sent USA’s stock market indices to new all-time highs Our view of the future differs from many: persistent long-term energy usage trends discussed herein suggest to Lattice that it’s not just about renewables vs. fossil fuels; in ensuing years the world will need ALL of the energy that can possibly be gotten from all available sources; the key trick is to be able to slash global CO2 emissions in parallel By transforming oil and coal into ‘green’ CO2-free LENR fuels, commercialization of LENRs offers an opportunity to cut the Gordian Knot of sustainable economic growth
  3. 3. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 3 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy November 19, 2014 Logo copyright, Apple Inc. 3 Lattice Energy LLC “Think different" was an advertising slogan for Apple Inc. (formerly Apple Computer Inc.) in 1997 created by the Los Angeles office of advertising agency TBWAChiatDay (unreleased version narrated by Steve Jobs himself) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEPhLqwKo6g
  4. 4. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 4 By the world very gradually switching power generation technologies from presently dominant chemical combustion processes to instead using transmutation of LENR Carbon-based fuels derived directly from petroleum and coal, oil companies have an opportunity to dramatically extend the effective longevity of today’s remaining in-ground supplies of fossil fuels. Achieving this goal could postpone mankind’s day of reckoning on energy for thousands of years, enable high rates of sustainable global economic growth, and allow future consumers to enjoy abundant supplies of affordable, nonpolluting, CO2-free energy November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 4 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Lattice Energy LLC
  5. 5. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 5 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Lattice Energy LLC November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 5 It is a risk to develop LENRs. What if it doesn't work out? Ah ......... but what if it does. Adapted from a quotation of American book author Peter McWilliams (1949 - 2000)
  6. 6. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 6 Lattice Energy LLC November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 6 LENRs solve issue of future “Carbon bubble” asset risk Bank of England et al. weigh risks of “stranded” in-ground fossil fuels Not only do such risks disappear but LENRs increase energetic value by 5,000x Quoted directly from news story by Damian Carrington, The Guardian online, December 1, 2014 at 08:47 EST "The Bank of England is to conduct an enquiry into the risk of fossil fuel companies causing a major economic crash if future climate change rules render their coal, oil and gas assets worthless." "The concept of a 'carbon bubble' has gained rapid recognition since 2013, and is being taken increasingly seriously by some major financial companies including Citibank, HSBC and Moody’s, but the Bank’s enquiry is the most significant endorsement yet from a regulator." "The concern is that if the world’s government’s meet their agreed target of limiting global warming to 2o C by cutting carbon emissions, then about two-thirds of proven coal, oil and gas reserves cannot be burned. With fossil fuel companies being among the largest in the world, sharp losses in their value could prompt a new economic crisis.” Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/01/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble
  7. 7. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 7 Exponential functions and nonlinear growth …………..………….…………………………. 8 - 11 Moore’s Law, transistors, and prices of integrated circuit chips .…………………..….. 12 - 21 Exponential growth of technologies and evolutionary time-lags …….…………………. 22 - 27 1880 to today: experience curve effect reduced real price of electricity …............... 28 - 31 Commercialization of new technologies impacts per capital energy usage ….......... 32 - 37 Correlations between GDP growth, categories of energy use, and emissions …....... 38 - 41 Stage being set for new surge in energy use per capita …………….……………………. 42 Exponentially increasing CO2 emissions: is there a new way to avoid this? ……….…. 43 Today 1.5 billion people or ~21% of world population are without electricity ………… 44 - 45 Fossil fuel supplies are shrinking but world still needs dense energy sources ………. 46 - 47 S-curves provide insights into temporal evolution of technologies and products …... 48 - 52 Long-term historical perspective: recent oil price moves and real price of energy … 53 - 67 World needs new type of affordable CO2-free dense primary energy source ………... 68 - 69 Existing nuclear energy sources have problems: LENRs may provide solution ……… 70 - 71 Low energy neutron reactions (LENRs) and nanotech ………………………….………… 72 - 87 LENRs can transform aromatic fractions of oil and coal into green LENR fuels …….. 88 - 94 Commercializing LENRs could potentially enable a Moore’s Law of energy ………….. 95 - 97 Working with Lattice ………………………………………………………………………………. 98 LENRs could enable society to “shoot the curl” …………………………………………….. 99 Additional reading for the technically inclined …………………………………………….... 100 Lyrics excerpt: Bon Jovi “Livin’ on a prayer” (1986) ……………………………………….. 101
  8. 8. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 8 Exponential processes can be hard to grasp without charts
  9. 9. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 9 Nonlinear phenomena can rapidly increase or decrease in value Exponential functions are nonlinear Great many natural and economic processes are driven by nonlinear dynamics Relationship in which an increase in value of the independent variable x gives the same proportional change (in this case an increase in value that equals 2x) in the dependent variable, a nonlinear exponential function y = f(x)
  10. 10. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 10 Numerical values of both x-axis and y-axis scales increase linearly Plots illustrates one linear vs. two nonlinear datasets Nonlinear datasets plotted against linear x- and y-axes scales appear curved Linear increase Nonlinear exponential increase Curves Straight line
  11. 11. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 11 If linear x-axis values plotted against y-axis values on logarithmic scale US real GDP increased ~ exponentially from 1928 to 2010 And slope is ~ straight line then relationship between two datasets is exponential Solid points are inflation-corrected U.S. Gross National Product (GDP) as a function of year. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov). The solid red curve is exponential growth formula with a doubling time of 20 years. Example of a semi-log graph of exponential data
  12. 12. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 12 Number of transistors per IC chip will increase exponentially over time Moore’s Law of integrated circuits hypothesized in 1965 “The number of transistors incorporated in a chip will approximately double every 24 months.” Gordon Moore, Co-founder of Intel Corp. (1965 paper) November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 12 Source: http://www.chemheritage.org/Downloads/Publications/Books/Understanding-Moores-Law/Understanding-Moores-Law_Chapter-07.pdf Quoted from “Moore’s Law at Forty” book chapter by Gordon Moore published in “Moore’s Law - Four Decades of Innovation”, David Brock, ed., Chemical Heritage Foundation pp. 68 (2006) "This is rapid growth! In fact, there was even a period during the 1970s when the industry was more than doubling the total number of transistors ever made every year, so that more electronics were built each year than existed at the beginning of the year. The pace has slowed recently but is still on a good growth curve. Interestingly, there are no bumps and wiggles in this transistor output curve (Figure 2) as there are in the plot of revenue over time (Figure 1). Transistor output has steadily expanded. Today we have reached over 1018 transistors a year. That is a hard number to contemplate. Patrick Gelsinger of Intel estimates that present transistor output equals the number of grains of rice produced globally each year. Over the years, I have used a variety of similar comparisons. At one stage, Edward O. Wilson, the well-known naturalist at Harvard, had estimated that there were perhaps 1016 to 1017 ants on earth. In the early 1990s, then, the semiconductor industry was producing a transistor for every ant.”
  13. 13. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 13 Growth in total number of transistors per IC chip definitely exponential Chart compares Moore’s 1975 projection vs. actual data Transistors per memory chip grew at higher nonlinear rate than microprocessors Source Fig. 9 in “Moore’s Law at Forty” (2006): http://www.chemheritage.org/Downloads/Publicati ons/Books/Understanding-Moores- Law/Understanding-Moores-Law_Chapter-07.pdf
  14. 14. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 14 Individual transistor size decreased while increasing total area of dies What factors made Moore’s 1975 projection work so well? Industry crammed ever-smaller transistors onto larger areas of chip ‘real estate’ Source: http://www.chemheritage.org/Downloads/Publications/Books/Understanding-Moores-Law/Understanding-Moores-Law_Chapter-07.pdf Quoted from “Moore’s Law at Forty” book chapter by Gordon Moore published in “Moore’s Law - Four Decades of Innovation”, David Brock, ed., Chemical Heritage Foundation pp. 73 (2006) "One of the factors I named the 'die size contribution.' In the semiconductor industry, the term die is used for the area on a processed wafer that contains a single device [IC chip]. After a wafer is completely processed, the wafer is cut into many 'dice,' each containing a single integrated circuit [i.e., a fully functional microprocessor or memory chip]. The 'die size contribution' factor in Figure 7 reflects how the semiconductor industry was making larger devices (with increased die sizes) and therefore had more area onto which to put components. A second, slightly larger contribution to the complexity increase was 'dimension reduction.' This was the shrinking of component dimensions, which led to an increase in the density. Multiplying these two contributions results in a curve that represents the combined effect on complexity growth of 'die size and dimensions.' This combined contribution was responsible for more than half of the progress that the industry had made on the complexity curve, but there remained a very considerable element that came from some other factor. On the graph, I labeled this factor the 'contribution of device and circuit cleverness.' This factor I identified with squeezing waste space out of the chip, getting rid of isolation structures and a variety of other things."
  15. 15. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 15 x-axis scale is linear and y-axis scale is logarithmic: plot ~ straight line Moore’s Law of integrated circuits is clearly exponential Microprocessor internal clock speeds also increased exponentially over this time Intel 4004 CPU (1971)
  16. 16. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 16 Moore’s Law from 1900 re $ cost and speed of calculations Source: http://www.singularity.com/charts/page67.html
  17. 17. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 17 Price per transistor decreased exponentially over this time period Price drop from Moore’s Law and Experience Curve Effect Figure 3. Average price of a transistor in US$ (1968 - 2004) Source of Figure: “Moore’s Law at Forty” book chapter by Gordon Moore published in “Moore’s Law - Four Decades of Innovation”, David Brock, ed., Chemical Heritage Foundation pp. 70 (2006) Source of data: Intel/WSTS, May 2005
  18. 18. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 18 Was developed and elaborated by Boston Consulting Group in the 1960s Idealized relationship between direct cost/unit and total cumulative unit production Source: Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects An experience curve, which differs somewhat from a so-called “learning curve,” is a graphical representation of a price phenomenon that was developed and widely publicized as a corporate strategy tool by Bruce Henderson, founder of the Boston Consulting Group. Concept refers to effect that manufacturers learn from doing, which means that the higher the cumulative volume of production, the lower the direct cost per new unit of produced product. Thus, experience curves are innately convex and have downward slopes, as shown in two graphs below: Experience Curve effect can reduce real product prices
  19. 19. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 19 Cost/megawatt for steam turbines dropped as unit volumes increased Experience Curve effect can reduce real product prices Empirical data shows that it applies to variety of different manufactured products Total direct cost per megawatt (constant $) vs. total cumulative megawatts of steam turbines sold and delivered by three OEM manufacturers Source: Vectorstudy - http://vectorstudy.com/management-theories/experience-curve “Decrease in costs associated with production of steam turbine generators trend towards a line with constant slope on a log-log plot; each data point represents one year.” Effectively the passage of time
  20. 20. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 20 Enormous decreases in size with vastly greater raw computing power Illustrates impact of Moore’s Law and Experience Curves CPU clock speed of today’s 2014 Apple iPhone 6 is ~ 1.4 GHZ or 350x Osborne “An Osborne Executive portable computer, from 1982 with a Zilog Z80 4 MHz (0.004 GHZ) CPU, and a 2007 Apple iPhone with a 412 MHz ARM11 CPU; the Executive weighs 100 times as much, has nearly 500 times as much volume, cost approximately 10 times as much (adjusted for inflation), and has about 1/100th the clock frequency of the smartphone.” Source: Wikipedia
  21. 21. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 21 New technologies under development can extend duration of this law As of 2014 Moore’s Law still has no end on the horizon Quantum computing may provide next technological extension to Moore’s Law "Moore’s Law is really about economics. My prediction was about the future direction of the semiconductor industry, and I have found that the industry is best understood through some of its underlying economics." [pp. 67] "Having outlined my general approach to understanding the semiconductor industry and having identified some key factors for keeping on the complexity curve, one might ask, 'When is it all going to end?' I have been asked that question at least a hundred times this year. The answer is: 'Not very soon.' I can see the complexity curve lasting for at least as long now as I ever could in the past." [pp. 84] Quoted from “Moore’s Law at Forty” book chapter by Gordon Moore published in “Moore’s Law - Four Decades of Innovation”, David Brock, ed., Chemical Heritage Foundation (2006) Source: http://www.chemheritage.org/Downloads/Publications/Books/Understanding-Moores-Law/Understanding-Moores-Law_Chapter-07.pdf
  22. 22. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 22 Subjective chart shows selected examples of improved technology Growth of technology has also been exponential over time Credit: Industrial Centre, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, All rights reserved (2003) Source: http://tds.ic.polyu.edu.hk/td/theme1/t1_content_e.htm
  23. 23. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 23 Chart reflects views of Hong Kong Polytechnic faculty on time interval Lag between invention and application can be substantial Lattice comment: lag time only shortening for certain kinds of products – not all Source: http://tds.ic.polyu.edu.hk/td/theme1/t1_content_e.htm Credit: Industrial Centre, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, all rights reserved (2003)
  24. 24. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 24 Patents can be viewed as quantitative proxy for technological progress World GDP somewhat correlated with world patent filings Source: http://globalpatents.ca/blog/ 1880
  25. 25. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 25 Patents increased exponentially ever since late 1940s after WWII From 1850 - 1929 issued patents increased linearly Recent data suggests present burst of innovation may exceed 1850 - 1929 era Source: Wikipedia 1945
  26. 26. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 26 Total number of energy-related nanotech patents accelerated after 2000 Nanotechnology began with K. Eric Drexler’s book in 1986 Things become possible at nanometers that can’t be done on larger length scales Source: http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/nanotechnology-and-energy-sector/2014-02-17 2000
  27. 27. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 27 Advances in theoretical physics sometimes enable commercialization Lags between invention & application can be substantial Maxwell’s equations integrated electric and magnetic effects into coherent whole Timeline of events suggests Maxwell’s theory helped to facilitate commercialization  1826 - Ampere’s Law discovered - relates magnetic fields to flows of electrical current  1831 - Faraday discovered Law of electromagnetic induction - crucial advance in physics needed to develop a workable technology for commercial systems capable of generating electric power  1835 - Gauss’ Law formulated - explains how electric fields behave in vicinity of electric charges  1865 - Maxwell published his famous equations in seminal paper, “A dynamic theory of the electromagnetic field” in which he integrated Ampere, Faraday, and Gauss’ work into single elegant, coherent mathematical framework that fully explained electromagnetic phenomena  1879 - Edison invented the modern incandescent electric light bulb for illumination  1882 - First coal-fired central station electric power generation plant: Edison’s Pearl Street Station opened in New York City with total output of 600 kWh  1882 - First hydroelectric central station power generation plant: Edison’s Vulcan Street Plant at a dam on the Fox River in Appleton, Wisconsin with initial electrical output of 12.5 kWh  We all know what happened after 1882: there was explosive exponential growth of electric power generation, first in the USA and then spreading across the entire industrializing world
  28. 28. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 28 Edison knew that mass production of electricity would reduce price Electricity is now much less costly than price back in 1882 His bold vision was unquestionably the Henry Ford Model T of electricity “Just wait a little while,” prophesied Edison, “and we’ll make electric light so cheap that only the wealthy can afford to burn candles.” (ca. 1880) “Edison lived [until 1931] to see lamps that gave four times as much light and cost one-fifth as much to buy.” General Electric Company newspaper advertisement February 4, 1954
  29. 29. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 29 Edison’s prophecy was right: exponential decrease in price Source: http://tingilinde.typepad.com/starstuff/2009/05/the-historic-price-of-electricity-in-the-us.html By 1910, the price of electricity was ~$1.60 per kWh (1990 dollars); from 1920s through mid-1930s it mostly averaged around $0.60 kWh; today, price of electricity ranges from ~ $0.05 to 0.12 kWh (1990 dollars) 1970 Note that the real price of electricity flattens-out after very rapid increases in % efficiency of electric power plants ceased around 1970 Average efficiency of coal-fired power plants has remained at ~32 - 34% since 1960
  30. 30. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 30 Exponential decrease in price from 1880 - 1970 then flat Source: Santa Fe Institute - working papers http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/09-12-047.pdf Fig. 10 in “Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future” J. McNerney, J. Trancik, and J. D. Farmer, SFI Working Paper: 2009-12-047 (2009) (1990 dollars) Total cost of coal-fired electricity: comparison to ave. electricity cost 1970
  31. 31. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 31 At the grid level electricity is non storable so generation = consumption Total annual US electricity production from 1915 - 2012 Total generation grew exponentially from 1915 - 1970 and then linearly thereafter 1970 2005
  32. 32. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 32 USA went through a linear phase, steady-state, and exponential growth Rates of growth in per capita energy use can vary greatly What causal factors triggered onset of the exponential growth phase in ~1880? 1750 1880 Steady-state
  33. 33. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 33 US population growth has been uninterruptedly exponential since 1790 Population data doesn’t explain changes in per capita energy While population growth does affect energy usage it is just part of the story US Census population graph from 1790: source is Wikipedia 1880
  34. 34. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 34 Introduction of automobiles, urban electrification & electric appliances Cause: huge commercialization burst in new technologies Synergistic technologies catalyzed exponential growth in per capita energy use  1859 - Modern rechargeable lead-acid battery: Gaston Planté (France)  1876 - Telephone: Alexander Graham Bell (USA)  1879 - Modern incandescent electric light bulb: Thomas Edison (USA)  1882 - Edison begins installing series of electric power generation stations and grids (USA)  1882 - Electric clothes iron: Henry Seeley (USA)  1885 - Automobile with gasoline-powered internal combustion engine: Karl Benz (Germany)  1885 - First riveted steel coal furnace for convective central home heating: Dave Lennox (USA)  1886 - Electric powered fan: Schulyer Wheeler (USA)  1889 - Electric sewing machine: Singer Company (USA)  1891 - Electric ovens go on sale to public (USA)  1899 - Invention of radio: Guglielmo Marconi (Italy)  1904 or thereabouts - home electric washing machine (USA): first inventor is unknown  1907 - Portable electric home vacuum cleaner: James Spangler (USA)  1913 - Electric refrigerator: Fred Wolf (USA) Key examples --- autos were single largest contributor to increased per capita energy use
  35. 35. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 35 US market growth rates variable: television much faster than automobiles % Household ownership vs. time since initial invention Source: http://magicalcompendium.blogspot.com/2011/07/innovation-stagnation.html Spread of new product types into American households
  36. 36. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 36 Former “Third World” countries are presently growing exponentially Data shows growth of vehicle ownership across world World automobile production by continent and some large emerging countries Source: http://revel.unice.fr/eriep/?id=3301 Main sources: WMVD, SMMT, JAMA, IRF, CCFA, OICA Elaboration: M. Freyssenet (2004) Updating (April 2010)
  37. 37. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 37 Huge Internet growth since 1993 increases energy demand Source: http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/economic-growth/bracing-for-the-cloud/ “To understand the voracious growth and scale of investment in the global information-communication-technology ecosystem, consider this fact: the cloud is now approaching 10 percent of the world’s electricity consumption. At the individual level, when you count all components of usage – not just charging – the average iPhone consumes more energy annually than a medium-sized refrigerator.”
  38. 38. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 38 Petroleum consumption grew exponentially until ~1975 then linearly Annual US energy consumption by source: 1776 - 2013 CO2-emitting fossil fuels accounted for ~82% of US energy consumption in 2013 Source: Wikipedia 1880 1970
  39. 39. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 39 Future global demand for energy will be very strong Real GDP growth and increased demand for energy highly correlated Future demand cannot be met without vast improvement in energy technologies Empirical data presented below (Huber & Mills - 2005; Brown et al. - 2011) shows that growth in per capita GDP (which is what also reduces population growth rates) is highly correlated with corresponding increases in total energy demand; in today’s modern energy- intensive societies, this determines the overall standard of living. Measured against finite fossil fuel supplies and other non-renewables, ratcheting increases in demand for energy could exacerbate energy supply issues as global real GDP growth continues into the future. Fig. 1, pp. 20, Brown et al., “The relationship between per capita energy use and per capita gross domestic product (GDP; in US dollars), plotted on logarithmic axes, from 1980 to 2003.” From: “Energetic Limits to Economic Growth" J. Brown et al. BioScience 61 pp. 19 - 26 (2011) http://sev.lternet.edu/~jn ekola/nekola%20pdf/bs- 61-19-26.pdf Note: in 2008 India (not shown in Huber-Mills’ chart) had est. GDP ($1000/Capita) of 1.327 and Energy Use (Million Btu/Capita) of 12.6, placing it near origin of bold blue arrow in the lowermost corner of the left quadrant; Upward progression of countries along the trajectory of blue arrow creates increases in total world energy demand. The faster GDP per capita rises in all countries, the faster total global energy demand increases. India & China now account for ~39% of the world’s population India Germany, France, and U.K. USA China
  40. 40. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 40 “The rise of distributed power” see Fig. 7 on page 32 B. Owens, General Electric - Ecomagination (February 2014) http://www.eenews.net/assets/2014/02/25/document_gw_02.pdf Quality of life clearly better with increased use of energy This relationship contributes to strong underlying global energy demand Datasource:UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme HumanDevelopmentReport2013andUSEnergy InformationAdministration Copyright: General Electric (2014)
  41. 41. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 41 Growth in total Carbon emissions has stayed ~ exponential since 1850 Global Carbon emissions by source from 1800 to today Produced almost entirely by combustion of fossil fuels, i.e. burning with Oxygen
  42. 42. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 42 Latest data suggests that population growth is beginning to flatten-out UN foresees continued exponential growth in energy use If this scenario is correct it sets the stage for new surge in per capita energy use 2014
  43. 43. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 43 If present global warming is caused by O2 combustion then must curb it Growth in global Carbon emissions exponential since 1855 There could be a better way to use Carbon: transmutation instead of combustion Red curved line added by Lattice
  44. 44. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 44 Table 1. Electricity Access in 2008: Regional Aggregates (page 9) According to data ~1.5 billion people now lack electricity Source: http://www.ruralelec.org/fileadmin/DATA/Documents/06_Publications/Position_papers/ARE_Mini-grids_-_Full_version.pdf
  45. 45. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 45 LENR technology could someday help end energy poverty In 2014 at least 1.5 billion people on our planet are living without any electricity. Incredibly, this huge number is roughly the same as the world’s entire population when Thomas Edison opened his first coal-fired central station electric power generation plant on September 4, 1882: the Pearl Street Station in New York City with a total electrical output of 600 kWh. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 45
  46. 46. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 46 Published in “The Christian Science Monitor” on July 14, 2014 British Petroleum believes the Oil Age only has 53 years left http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2014/0714/How-long-will-world-s-oil-reserves-last-53-years-says-BP http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/BPs-Latest-Estimate-Says-Worlds-Oil-Will-Last-53.3-Years.html http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
  47. 47. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 47 Fossil fuel reserves will be exhausted within ~150 years Solar PV/wind power: insufficient energy density to replace fossil fuels World will still require dense energy sources for transportation & portable power Source: http://www.drexel.edu/~/media/Files/greatworks/pdf_sum10/WK8_Layton_EnergyDensities.ash Petroleum energy density: “A single gallon of gasoline contains approximately forty (40) megajoules of chemical energy. Dividing energy by volume yields an energy density of ten billion joules per cubic meter. Gasoline is ten quadrillion times more energy- dense than solar radiation and one billion times more energy-dense than wind and water power.” Reference: B.E. Layton, International Journal of Green Energy 5 pp. 438 - 455 (2008) Comparison of intrinsic energy densities
  48. 48. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 48 S-curves are sigmoid and describe an entire life cycle Exponential growth phase of life cycle is finite and doesn’t last forever Individual products and technologies form series of S-curves as markets evolve Credit: John Barwis Shell U.K. Exploration and Production
  49. 49. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 49 S-curves are sigmoid and describe an entire life cycle Exponential growth phase of life cycle is finite and doesn’t last forever Individual products and technologies form series of S-curves as markets evolve Credit: Jimena Calfa Source: http://www.onquality.info/2014/08/the-future-of-quality-evolutionary-or.html
  50. 50. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 50 Source: http://theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/347491/making-low-carbon-future-better-well-cheaper Source of chart: U.S. Dept. of Energy report Battery cost reduction tied to increases in energy density
  51. 51. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 51 Batteries cannot overcome the limitations of solar and wind Batteries’ energy densities limited and the technology now maturing Will still need dense energy sources for transportation & portable power Source: http://www.estquality.com/technology Note: superimposed S-curve and dates were added by Lattice
  52. 52. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 52 Maturity of combustion and battery technologies is upon us Creates opportunities for entry of newer and even better technologies Wind/solar: CO2-free and renewable but low energy density and intermittent Technology S-curves for combustion vs. LENRs: S-curve concept and tire cord technology: To greatly reduce energy costs need breakthrough energy-dense technology: LENRs LENRs Widom-Larsen theory breakthrough enables LENR engineering (2005) Combustion 1880 1960 2005 LENRs complement wind and solar and are highly synergistic with them
  53. 53. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 53 Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16591 Recent increases in U.S. oil production have been huge Much of this results from fracking that unlocks oil in tight formations In parallel the U.S. economy is reaccelerating as it pulls-out of Great Recession
  54. 54. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 54 Oil price determined by dynamic supply/demand forces Seesaw between these forces creates sawtooth patterns in price charts Over a protracted period of time an increasingly high inflation-adjusted (real) oil price will change day-to-day behavior of consumers in ways that reduce (ration) short- and long-term demand for oil all over the world. Absent any major changes in total supplies, at some point the demand for oil will drop far enough to halt further price increases. If the end-user demand reduction process continues and overshoots on downside, which happens often, crude oil’s price can then drop significantly from an intermediate peak and so forth On the other hand, changes in the market’s perceptions about supplies of oil can move the oil price up or down either slowly over time as additional supply-related data is gradually revealed, or almost instantaneously in response to a particular event such as a terrorist attack on key facilities in a major oil field Over time, an endless back-and-forth seesaw between dynamic economic forces of supply and demand creates complex “sawtooth” patterns commonly seen in most time-series charts of stock and commodity prices. In real-world markets, idealized states of true market price equilibrium and great stability are only transitory at best; disequilibrium and persistent upward or downward trends in market prices of oil and other commodities are more the rule than the exception
  55. 55. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 55 Oil price drop orderly despite huge supply increases Most likely caused by a near-term imbalance in supplies vs. demand Oil price decline surprisingly orderly and resilient rather than catastrophic crash Source: https://www.shaleintelligence.com/7-reasons-behind-drop-in-oil-prices/ See Charles Constantinou’s thoughts on causes for this decline at hyperlink below Roughly linear price decline so far - data through November 24, 2014 July 2014
  56. 56. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 56 Example of very disorderly lightning-fast price decline Shows Oct. 1987 ‘Black Monday’ Dow-Jones Industrial Average crash Downward movement fast and extreme; by contrast oil price decline very orderly Data through November 24, 2014 Source: http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2011/03/ Those who wish to learn more about this type of violent, catastrophic, nonlinear price collapse should read Charles Kindleberger’s classic: “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” 6th ed. 2011 DJIA fell a record 22% in just one day Note price gap
  57. 57. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 57 Data through October 24, 2014 Oil price drop orderly despite huge supply increases Most likely caused by near-term imbalance in supplies vs. demand Oil price decline surprisingly orderly and resilient versus a catastrophic crash
  58. 58. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 58 Graph of inflation-adjusted WTI crude oil price from 1970 Recent price decline looks more like corrective market trading pattern Purple upward trend in real $ price since 1999 intact despite the recent correction Overshoot on upside Overshoot on downside Recent price action
  59. 59. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 59 Graph of nominal and real crude oil prices from 1861 Mid-2014 price levels comparable to 1860s when adjusted for inflation Data reveals that today’s real price of oil still quite expensive in historical terms Data source: British Petroleum 1865 US$115 US$60 Real $
  60. 60. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 60 Graph of nominal and real gasoline prices from 1918 Mid-2014 price levels comparable to 1920s when adjusted for inflation Data reveals that today’s real price of gasoline close to norm in historical terms Credit: Timothy McMahon (2013) Feb. 17, 2015: in USA the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $2.47/gallon. Last year on very same day price was $3.50/gallon $2.47
  61. 61. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 61 Consensus world GDP forecast vs. the price of crude oil Herein we have illustrated how demand for energy closely tracks GDP Oil price may in part be responding to market expectations about 2015 demand Original source: Twitter post by @Not_Jim_Cramer on Dec. 17, 2014 https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/media Posted on Twitter Dec. 17, 2014 July 2014
  62. 62. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 62 Brent oil price better reflects global supply/demand forces Substantial price decline from previous ~stability began in July 2014 Price reflects market expectations about near-term supplies vs. demand July 2014 Temporary period of approximate price stability
  63. 63. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 63 Like many commodities oil has forward futures markets Futures contracts allow physical crude oil to be hedged and delivered Relationship between spot and future prices is a barometer of supply/demand  Physical real-world oil markets and futures (paper) markets dynamically interact with each other through a combination of hedging, arbitrage, and outright speculation  Owners of physical supplies of oil on-hand (spot) can lock-in a price for their oil by selling forward futures contracts, say for delivery in 6 months; in theory, if they do not unwind the hedge by purchasing an offsetting quantity of futures they can physically deliver the oil they presently own to new owners on the designated delivery month in certified storage facilities located in the official delivery market. So at that specific time and place, spot cash delivery price must = futures price (i.e., they will converge)  Relationship between spot (today’s) price and market prices for oil further out in the future time-wise can exist in one of two different regimes: (1) future prices are higher than the spot price (contango or carrying charge market indicating excess near-term supplies) or (2) future prices are the same or lower than the spot price (backwardation or inverted market indicating comparatively tight near-term crude oil supplies)  In heavily traded global oil markets a contango condition vs. backwardation is a very sensitive barometer or “canary in the coal mine” for state of near-term supply/demand balance; rapid shift from one regime to other can be tip-off for imminent price change
  64. 64. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 64 Periods of excess supply are green; tight supplies are red Start of price decline in 2014 coincides with shift to a contango regime http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-05/oil-glut-seen-setting-sail-as-contango-widens-chart-of-the-day Source: Bloomberg Jan. 4, 2015 Contango: excess near- term oil supplies Backwardation: tight near-term oil supplies July 2014 Feb. 2011 April 2008
  65. 65. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 65 Price declines ~coincide with backwardation g contango While other factors affect price this shift between regimes is important Market superimposes expectations about 2nd derivative of current demand rates April 2008 Feb. 2011 July 2014 Brent crude oil – nominal price Contango Backwardation
  66. 66. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 66 Signs of a shift from temporary oversupply of crude oil Market presently pays players net money to store and hedge supplies Tipoff supply/demand is tightening: contango peaks & carrying charges decline  Surprisingly orderly ~50% decline in the price of oil that has occurred since July 2014 resulted from “perfect storm” confluence of multiple supply/demand factors:  Massive increases in oil & gas supplies in USA as result of fracking production  Real price of crude oil was already extremely high in 100+ year historical terms  While USA’s economy was/is finally reaccelerating smoothly out of the Great Recession that began ~ in mid-2008; during 2014 rates of GDP growth started backtracking and decelerating in China, Europe, Japan, and India (i.e., the 2nd derivative of GDP growth rates began decreasing); this loosened-up near-term supply/demand balance in crude oil markets; was reflected in very rapid shift from a tighter backwardation regime to a contango that occurred in July 2014  Market is presently paying large players to hedge and store crude oil; see http://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-this-signal-to-see-if-oils-recovery-is-for-real-2015-02-06  Key factors to watch that could help determine whether oil price decline has truly bottomed-out are US fracking slowdown (?), GDP growth rates in China/Europe, and contraction of carrying charges in oil market contango, i.e. it has peaked
  67. 67. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 67 Barring unexpected global economic or bio catastrophes Energy demand will probably grow exponentially for foreseeable future  Recent downward moves in crude oil and gasoline prices appear to only be temporary corrections within a longer-term uptrend in real price of crude oil that has been operating since 1999. This suggests long-term demand for petroleum and its products still continues to increase faster than increases in total global oil supplies. Much of this uptrend has been driven by relatively high rates of economic growth and improved standards of living in populous countries of the former so-called “Third World”, e.g. China and India  Driving force underlying relatively persistent long-term upward pressures on global energy prices is clearly revealed in charts presented on previous slides that demonstrate a very clear relationship between per capita energy usage (measured in BTUs or Watts) and GDP growth. Put another way, these charts show that increased per capita economic activity (as measured by GDP), in conjunction with improved standards of living for a given country’s citizens, directly increases global demand for energy  Importantly, if people living in countries currently located in the lower left quadrant of those charts are ever to attain and enjoy anywhere close to the standard of living that is now prevalent in Europe (let alone the United States), there will be correspondingly large increases in global demand for energy; e.g. China brought electrification to hundreds of millions of its citizens by hugely increasing coal-fired power plants  All this data strongly implies that, barring a prolonged period of worldwide economic recession or depression or bio-catastrophes such as an Ebola virus pandemic, global demand for energy will likely continue to increase exponentially for the foreseeable future - this will be an unavoidable result of continued GDP growth around the world, and to increasing degrees also in laggard sub-Saharan Africa  Conclusion: if supplies of existing Carbon-based energy sources are not dramatically increased and new types of ‘greener’ energy technologies are not further developed and broadly deployed, the real price of energy broadly writ will inevitably rise to new levels that are vastly higher than we are seeing today
  68. 68. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 68 Given global warming if this happens CO2 emissions must be slashed Energy demand will probably continue to grow exponentially What about needs of ~1.5 billion people who now live without electricity? November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 68 World needs a new type of energy source that will enable usage to continue to grow exponentially without exorbitant increases in energy prices and at the same time drastically reducing global CO2 emissions --- a techno-explosion in energy. Oil supplies may be running-out within roughly 50 years. What do we do?
  69. 69. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 69 Nuclear energy density vastly >>> solar, wind, and batteries Existing nuclear fission or fusion have radiation and waste problems Low Energy Neutron Reactions (LENRs): no deadly radiation or wastes  Beginning with Hans Bethe’s landmark paper published back in in 1939, the Holy Grail and longstanding dream of contemporary nuclear science has been to commercialize cleaner (vs. fission) fusion reactions that power stars and our Sun  Less technically difficult fission technology was first utilized and deployed in commercial nuclear reactors; it has been fraught with safety, cost, and serious proliferation issues that are well-known a la Dr. Evgeny Velikhov’s “vital risks”  Both fission and fusion rely primarily on the strong interaction, emit biologically deadly hard radiation, and produce long-lived hazardous radioactive wastes  Up until the advent of the collective many-body Widom-Larsen theory in 2005, the weak interaction was thought to be useless for large-scale power generation  Thanks to Widom-Larsen theory, now know that radiation-free, truly ‘green’ LENRs based on the weak interaction are enabled by many-body physics in condensed matter and can occur at very substantial rates under exactly the right conditions  LENRs are a game-changing paradigm shift in evolution of nuclear technology
  70. 70. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 70 David Holmgren has envisioned four alternative futures for energy LENRs can provide a techno-explosion for energy They are the techno-explosion, techno-stability, energy descent, and collapse Source - David Holmgren, “Future Scenarios”: http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/16/31/index.html
  71. 71. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 71 Enormous energy density advantage vs. ordinary chemical combustion LENRs can provide a techno-explosion for energy Do not emit any deadly neutron or gamma radiation and no long-lived radwastes “Techno-explosion depends on new, large and concentrated energy sources that will allow the continual growth in material wealth and human power over environmental constraints, as well as population growth.” David Holmgren “Future Scenarios” Source - David Holmgren, “Future Scenarios”: http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/16/31/index.html
  72. 72. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 72 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Large length scales Huge array of new technological possibilities and opportunities open-up at micron to nanometer length-scales Nuclear-strength electric fields in μ-sized LENR-active sites enable e + p reaction What was formerly thought impossible becomes possible by utilizing applied nanotechnology Nanotechnology and LENRs are mutually joined at the hip November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 72
  73. 73. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 73 Being driven to nm length-scales in a quest for higher energy density Technology domains converging at nanometer length-scales Technology domain Main purpose Source of energy Energy- scale Typical rates of reactions Temps in Centigrade Representative examples Electro- chemical batteries Store electrical energy reversibly in chemical bonds Chemical bonds Electron Volts (eV) Slow to moderate; typically diffusion rate-limited at various types of interfaces found inside batteries Li batteries can generally be operated safely only at temperatures < 200o C Large variety of different chemistries: lead-acid, alkaline, NiMH, Nickel- cadmium, Lithium-ion, LiFePO4, Lithium- oxygen, etc. Energetic materials Thermal igniters, explosives, propellants Chemical bonds eVs Fast combustion processes w. O2, e.g., deflagration and detonation Macroscopic peak temps max-out at ~5,000o C Thermite reactions (burning of metals), dinitro-chloro-azido benzene, RDX, etc. Low energy neutron reactions (LENRs) Produce large amounts of CO2-free thermal energy from decay particles’ kinetic energies and gamma conversion to infrared Nuclear binding energy stored inside atomic nuclei Mega- electron Volts (MeVs) one MeV is equal to a million eVs Nuclear reactions themselves are super-fast, i.e., picosecond and faster; decays of any resulting unstable isotopes can range from very slow on order of millions of years to fast, i.e., nanoseconds Peak temperatures in micron- scale, short- lived LENR hotspot regions on surfaces and at interfaces typically reach ~4,000o to 6,000o C Neutron captures on various elements and isotopes; for example, LENR neutron capture processes starting with Lithium as base fuel target can release ~27 MeV in short sequence of nuclear reactions that do not release any energetic neutron or gamma radiation
  74. 74. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 74 Theoretical breakthrough achieved by combining multiple disciplines Widom-Larsen LENR theory is extremely multidisciplinary Science and technology of low energy neutron reactions (LENRs) in condensed matter systems utilizes knowledge from all of these varied disciplines Quantum electrodynamics (QED) Collective many-body effects Modern quantum mechanics Condensed matter physics Classical electrodynamics Modern nuclear physics Surface chemistry (H) Key nanotechnology Surface physics Plasma physics Plasmonics Analogous to Maxwell: integrates many LENR effects into coherent whole No new physics
  75. 75. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 75 Theoretical breakthrough achieved by combining multiple disciplines Widom-Larsen LENR theory is extremely multidisciplinary Analogous to Maxwell: integrates many LENR effects into coherent whole Fully explains previously inexplicable characteristic features:  Absence of deadly energetic neutron and gamma radiation  No appreciable production of long-lived radioactive isotopes  Plus an array of anomalous effects that have been observed and reported in various scientific journals for over 100 years
  76. 76. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 76 Image credit: co-author Domenico Pacifici From: “Nanoscale plasmonic interferometers for multispectral, high-throughput biochemical sensing” J. Feng et al., Nano Letters pp. 602 - 609 (2012) LENRs are paradigm-shifting nuclear energy technology Laura 13 November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 76
  77. 77. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 77 Guided by physics of the Widom-Larsen theory, an opportunity to commercialize LENRs as truly green CO2-free nuclear energy source has been enabled by a unique juxtaposition of very recent parallel advances in certain very vibrant areas of nanotechnology (esp. plasmonics), quantum entanglement, new innovations in nanoparticle fabrication techniques, as well as an array of new discoveries in advanced materials science. Nanotechnology and LENRs are mutually joined at the hip November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 77
  78. 78. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 78 Lack of hard radiation eliminates heavy shielding and containment Opportunity to develop revolutionary portable nuclear power sources LENRs can increase safety and shrink size of nuclear power Evolution of nuclear technology Fission reactors need 1 foot of steel and 3 feet of concrete to protect humans from hard radiation and wastes emitted by reactor; makes systems intrinsically large and heavy LENRs enable devices something like this: small, portable battery-like power sources that are safe and disposable Much larger LENR devices based on dusty plasma embodiments can potentially scale-up to megawatts; akin to today’s power plants Fission emits deadly MeV-energy neutrons and gammas
  79. 79. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 79 Reaction Type Typical “Average” Energy Release Relative Index of Energy Release U-235 Conventional Fission H+H Fusion in Stars D+T Fusion Reactors Light and Heavy Water LENRs Blacklight Power’s “Hydrinos” Hydrogen Fuel Cells Combustion of Gasoline 220 MeV 1000 27 MeV 17. 6 MeV ~ 0.1 MeV (low side) ~ 22 MeV (high side) max 0.02 MeV 0.0001 MeV 0.0002 MeV 123 80 91 0.45 0.09 0.0001 0.00005 Nuclear: Strong Interaction Nuclear: Weak Interaction ? Chemical Less Energy Per Reaction (1938) (1939) (1950s) (1989) (1838) (1876) (1991) Fission- fusion LENRsChemical Evolutionofnuclear LENR energy release is between fission and chemical power sources Nuclear energy releases are huge vs. chemical combustion Some LENRs can release more energy than hot D+T fusion reactions
  80. 80. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 80 57,500,000 (maximum theoretical energy density – only a fraction would be achievable in practice) LENRs (based on an assumption of an average of 0.5 MeV per nuclear reaction in an LENR system) 11,500100% Efficient Combustion of Pure Gasoline 5,930100% Efficient Combustion of Pure Methanol 2,300Gas Burning Microgenerator (20% efficient) 1,680Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (35% efficient) 460Zinc-Air Battery 329Lithium Battery 164Alkaline Battery Approximate Energy Density (Watt*hours/kg) Source of Energy LENRs Versus Chemical Energy Sources: Batteries, Fuel Cells, and Microgenerators 57,500,000 (maximum theoretical energy density – only a fraction would be achievable in practice) LENRs (based on an assumption of an average of 0.5 MeV per nuclear reaction in an LENR system) 11,500100% Efficient Combustion of Pure Gasoline 5,930100% Efficient Combustion of Pure Methanol 2,300Gas Burning Microgenerator (20% efficient) 1,680Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (35% efficient) 460Zinc-Air Battery 329Lithium Battery 164Alkaline Battery Approximate Energy Density (Watt*hours/kg) Source of Energy LENRs Versus Chemical Energy Sources: Batteries, Fuel Cells, and Microgenerators ChemicalEnergySourcesLENRs Nuclear energy density is major competitive advantage LENR energy density is ~5,000 times larger than that of gasoline
  81. 81. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 81 Basic reactions in Widom-Larsen theory are simple Protons or deuterons react directly with electrons to make neutrons Neutrons are then captured by other atoms g catalyze nuclear transmutations EnergyE-field + e- sp g e-*sp + p+ g n0 + νe Collective many-body quantum effects: many electrons each donate little bits of energy to a much smaller number of electrons that are also embedded in same high electric field Quantum electrodynamics (QED): smaller number of electrons that absorb energy from electric field can increase their effective masses (m = E/c2) to point where they can react directly with protons (or deuterons) to make neutrons and neutrinos νe neutrinos: ghostly unreactive photons that fly-off into space; n0 neutrons: capture on nearby atoms Neutrons + atomic nuclei heavier elements + decay products Neutron-capture-catalyzed transmutations release energy stored in atoms: Releases vast amounts of stored nuclear binding energy as energetic particles/photons that create heat
  82. 82. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 82 Anatomy of a micron-scale LENR-active surface site Conceptual overview of many-body patches that form on surfaces SP electrons and protons all oscillate collectively and mutually Q-M entangled Diameters of many-body patches randomly range from several nm up to perhaps ~100+ microns + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ‘Layer‘ of positive charge + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Many surface protons (hydrogen) + + + + + + + + + - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Thin-film of surface plasmon electrons - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Substrate: in this example, is hydride-forming metal, e.g. Palladium (Pd); however, could just as easily be an Oxide (in that case, SP electrons would be only be present at nanoparticle-oxide interface, not across entire substrate surface as shown above) SP electron subsystem Proton subsystem Substrate subsystem SP electron and proton subsystems form a many-body WLT patch; it can also reside on nanoparticles attached to surface - - - - - - - - - - Many surface plasmon electrons - - - - -- - - - - - Born-Oppenheimer approximation breaks down in this region Note: diagram components are not to scale
  83. 83. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 83 Input energy creates very high electric fields in surface sites Born-Oppenheimer breakdown creates nuclear-strength electric fields High electric fields increase effective masses of some patch SP electrons Note: diagram components are not to scale + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Layer of positive charge + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Substrate subsystem Sufficient input energy will create local E-fields > 1011 V/m within patch which permits: Substrate: in this example, is hydride-forming metal, e.g. Palladium (Pd); however, could just as easily be an Oxide (in that case, SP electrons would be only be present at nanoparticle-oxide interface, not across entire substrate surface as shown above) - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Thin-film of surface plasmon electrons - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Diameters of many-body patches randomly range from several nm up to perhaps ~100+ microns + + + + + + + Many surface protons (hydrogen) + + + + + + + + + - - - - - - - - - - Many surface plasmon electrons - - - - -- - - - - - Nuclear-strength local electric fields created herein Input energyE-field + e- sp g e-*sp + p+ g n + νe [condensed matter surfaces] Fuel target
  84. 84. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 84 LENRs occur in microscopic active sites found on surfaces Many-body collections of protons and electrons form spontaneously Comprised of many-body collections of protons and electrons + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ‘Layer‘ of positive charge + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Substrate subsystem - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - Thin-film of surface plasmon electrons - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - Substrate: in this example, is hydride-forming metal, e.g. Palladium (Pd); could also be many other metals Note: diagram components are not to scale After being produced, neutrons will capture on fuel targets: n + (Z, A) g (Z, A+1) [neutron capture on targets] (Z, A+1) g (Z + 1, A+1) + eβ - + νe [beta- decay] Often followed by β - decays of neutron-rich intermediate isotopic products Intense heating in LENR-active sites will form μ-scale event craters on substrate surfaces = Target fuel nanoparticle
  85. 85. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 85 LENR sites are analogous to transistors in computer chips Nanotechnology used to fabricate fuel targets emplaced on surfaces Releases nuclear binding energy stored in fuels and transmutes elements Explosive LENR ‘hotspots’ create distinctive surface craters ~2 - 100 microns in diameter Observed on LENR-active substrates post-experiment with scanning electron microscopes (SEM); LENR transmutation products are found in same areas with SIMS June 13. 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 85
  86. 86. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 86 LENRs could power Rankine and Brayton cycle engines Ideal for use in thermal-to-electric systems for CHP applications LENRs produce very high temperatures well-suited to Brayton cycle  LENRs intrinsically occur in localized micron-scale LENR-active sites on ~planar surfaces or curved surfaces of nanoparticles  Tiny LENR-active sites live for less than ~300 - 400 nanoseconds before being destroyed by intense heat; local peak temps range from 4,000 - 6,000o C; LENR-active sites will spontaneously reform under right conditions in properly engineered devices  Microscopic 100-micron LENR hotspot release up to 5+ Watts of heat in less than 400 nanoseconds; create crater-like features on surfaces that are visible in SEM images and showing clear evidence for flash-boiling of precious and refractory metals  Peak local LENR power density can hit > 1.0 x 1021 Joules/sec.m3  Control macroscopic-scale temperatures in LENR systems by tightly regulating total input energy and/or total area/volumetric densities of LENR-active sites present in a reaction chamber 100 μ crater in Palladium IR video of LENR hotspots Credit: P. Boss, U.S. Navy Credit: P. Boss, U.S. Navy http://www.youtube.com/watc h?v=OUVmOQXBS68 Boiling point 2,963°C Hotspots on Palladium
  87. 87. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 87 LENR ultra low-energy neutrons are extremely safe Fission and fusion neutrons are energetic, deadly and need shielding Hand-held device Person Length-scale: millions of kilometers Length-scale: hundreds of feet Length-scale: inches All of the nuclear reactions shown below create neutrons: only LENRs are safe Stellar fusion reactions make MeV neutrons ITER: D+T fusion reactor Safe LENRs Temperatures: many millions of degrees Temperatures: millions of degrees Temperatures: only thousands of degrees Ultra low-energyDangerous 14.1 MeV neutrons
  88. 88. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 88 Release of nuclear binding energy creates vast amounts of usable heat Catalytic ultra low energy neutrons trigger heat production Neutrons + target fuel atoms heavier elements + decay products + Neutron ‘match’ Neutrons are readily absorbed by LENR fuels such as inexpensive Nickel, Titanium, Lithium, or Carbon atoms Direct conversion of neutron capture and decay-related gammas to IR and beta/alpha particles create heat capture on target fuel atoms produces heat n0 Carbon
  89. 89. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 89 LENR technology can transform today’s fossil fuels Breakthroughs in physics and nanotechnology make this possible Bitumen, heavy oil, and coal may be much more valuable as green LENR fuels Canadian bitumen Heavy viscous oil Anthracite coal All of these natural hydrocarbons contain aromatic molecules that can be stripped-out Lattice has discovered that aromatic molecules can potentially be stripped-put and specially processed to be converted into green LENR fuels: no hard radiation emissions, no production of long-lived radioactive wastes or emission of gaseous CO2 into the atmosphere but instead release > 5,000 times more thermal energy vs. combustion of Carbon-based molecules with Oxygen
  90. 90. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 90 CH H H H H H Aromatic ring: 6 Carbon atoms CC C C C 6 Carbon atoms arranged in hexagonal ring bonded to 6 Hydrogen atoms November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 90 Aromatic carbon might be turned into green LENR fuels
  91. 91. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 91 Convert ring Hydrogen atoms (protons) into safe neutrons Neutrons are captured by ring Carbon atoms that are then transmuted In this example a Carbon atom is transmuted into a Nitrogen by LENR processes LENR neutron capture catalyzed
  92. 92. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 92 Carbon transmutation releases > 5,000x more system BTUs LENR transmutation pathways tend to follow rows of Periodic Table Stable elements produced by LENR network can be stopped at Oxygen Begin at Carbon (6C12) Can probably ~control where LENR process ends: could stop anywhere from Nitrogen to Zinc Vector of Carbon fuel-target LENR transmutation network pathway in green Combustion of Carbon atoms in fossil fuels with Oxygen O2 produces CO2 and H2O; CO2 gas emissions are a problem, which has led to schemes like Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) Additional issues with coal’s varied trace elements Scale of energy release from chemical reaction combustion processes are on the order of eVs Depending on where nuclear process was stopped, LENR transmutation of Carbon atoms in oil and coal could produce a wide variety of stable elements up through Zinc; gaseous emissions might be limited to Neon, Argon, Nitrogen and/or preferably Oxygen Scale of energy release is in MeV; or >106 larger than chemical reactions
  93. 93. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 93 Transformation of oil and coal into CO2-free energy sources Coal and oil crucial to the Industrial Revolution and modern society LENRs enable oil and coal to become 21st century green energy sources “Clean coal is an attempt by the coal industry to try and make itself relevant in the age of renewables. Existing CCTs do nothing to mitigate the environmental effects of coal mining or the devastating effects of global warming. Coal is the dirtiest fuel there is and belongs in the past.” Greenpeace policy statement (2009) Early 1800s in England Today Today
  94. 94. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 94 LENRs can end combustion of coal: CH4 + 2 O2 → CO2 + 2 H2O + energy Future: retrofit existing coal plants with CgNgO boilers Today's outputs: Heat electricity CO2 NOx andSO2 slag, particulates Today’s inputs: Capital $ bulk coal air (O2) LENR inputs: Capital $ Hydrogen LENR fuel electricity base metals LENR outputs: Heat >> electricity N2 , O2 , etc. waste (valuable $$$ elements) particulates LENRs would change boiler, coal pulverizer, and environmental subsystems (for zero NOx or SO2) vs. vs.
  95. 95. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 95 Lattice’s commercialization strategy akin to computer chips Scale-up LENR system power outputs and integrate energy conversion  LENRs can presently reach temperatures of 4,000 - 6,000o K and boil refractory metals in limited numbers of microscopic LENR-active hot spot sites on laboratory device surfaces. Lattice plans to use its unique proprietary knowledge of LENR engineering physics and key operating parameters (e.g., achieving and maintaining very high local surface electric fields) to first get heat production working well microscopically. That is: reproducibly trigger LENRs on specific, purpose-designed nanoparticulate structures with dimensions ranging from nanometers to microns that are fabricated using existing, off-the-shelf nanotech processes and then deliberately emplaced at what will become LENR-active sites located on Hydrogen-loaded substrate surfaces  In principle, output of such LENR heat sources could be readily scaled-up: either by fabricating larger area-densities of affixed nanostructures that facilitate formation of LENR hot spot sites on device surfaces, or by injecting larger quantities of specially designed fuel nanoparticles into volumetrically larger reaction chambers containing turbulent dusty plasmas, with or without spatially organized magnetic fields present  A variety of off-the-shelf energy conversion subsystems could potentially be integrated with commercial versions of LENR-based heat sources. These include thermoelectric; thermophotovoltaic cells; steam engines; Rankine cycle steam turbines; Brayton cycle gas turbines, boilers, etc. Other speculative possibilities involve new types of direct energy conversion technologies that are still under development, e.g. harvesting of β -
  96. 96. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 96  Over time, plan to ride down manufacturing experience cost curve; similar to build-cost reduction and market penetration strategies used by electronics manufacturers; e.g., microprocessors, memory chips, PCs, and smartphones  As product manufacturing experience accumulates and internal build costs are progressively reduced, leverage enormous energy density/longevity advantages of LENRs (>million times larger than chemical); price LENR-based systems to drastically undercut price/performance provided by competing thermal sources and chemically-based power generation systems --- this strategy can be applied to portable, distributed stationary, mobile, and central station power markets  Small-scale LENR systems might seem to be light years away from being able to compete with huge 500 - 1,500 MW coal-fired and Uranium-fission power plant behemoths; however, please recall history of personal computers versus mainframes. When PCs were first introduced 35 years ago, mainframe computer manufacturers regarded them as just toys, information processing jokes of no consequence. Less than 10 years later, mainframe companies weren’t laughing any more. Today, except for just a handful of survivors like IBM, mainframe and minicomputer dinosaurs have disappeared, replaced by microprocessor arrays Lattice’s commercialization strategy akin to computer chips Maximize unit volumes and ride experience curve to attack markets
  97. 97. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 97 Sustainable economic growth could be achieved by doing so Commercializing LENRs enables a Moore’s Law for energy  While solar PV and wind are CO2-free and extremely biosafe, their intrinsic energy densities are much lower than today’s fossil fuels and inherently intermittent - not continuous - sources of electrical and thermal power  Nuclear fission power has high energy densities, does not produce CO2 and operates continuously; but it emits huge quantities of deadly neutron and gamma radiation during operation and produces many long-lived radwastes  D-T nuclear fusion, while better than fission in terms of producing much less radwaste, still emits very dangerous neutron and gamma radiation during operation; also, there is still no sign of it being commercialized after 60 years of huge effort and hundreds of billions of R&D $ spent worldwide. See July 31, 2014 Nature story on ITER by Elizabeth Gibney: http://tinyurl.com/mlk5d5k  Low energy neutron reactions (LENRs) are only primary energy technology on foreseeable horizon that can provide world with affordable dense green energy, connect the unconnected, and empower billions of powerless people
  98. 98. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 98 Partnering on commercialization and consulting on certain topics Working with Lattice  Lattice welcomes inquiries from large, established organizations that have an interest in seriously discussing the possibility of becoming a strategic capital and/or technology development partner in the near- or long-term time frames  Lewis Larsen also selectively engages in fee-based third-party consulting. This work covers topics in the context of micron-scale, many-body collective quantum effects in condensed matter systems (including photosynthesis), safety issues arising from field failures causing Li-ion battery thermal runaways, nuclear waste remediation, and ultra-high-temperature superconductors, among others. Additional areas of expertise include long- term strategic implications of LENRs on high cap-ex long term investments in power generation and petroleum-related assets, as well as long-term price outlooks for and investments in precious metals and real price of energy. Will consult on such subjects as long as it does not involve my disclosing any proprietary engineering details applicable to LENR power generation systems 1-312-861-0115 lewisglarsen@gmail.com L. Larsen c.v.: http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lewis-g-larsen-cv-june-2013
  99. 99. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 99 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Lattice Energy LLC November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 99 LENRs enable society to “shoot the curl” and enter a New World of energy
  100. 100. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 100 Additional reading for the technically inclined Index to large collection of online documents re LENR theory, experimental data, and the technology: “Index to key concepts and documents” v. #19 ******* RECENTLY UPDATED ******* L. Larsen, Lattice Energy LLC, May 28, 2013 [119 slides] Updated and revised through August 19, 2014 http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-index-to-documents-re-widomlarsen-theory-of-lenrsmay-28-2013 Lattice document that provides a broad-based overview about LENR technology and its potential: “What happens if commercial versions of power systems utilizing green, radiation-free LENRs someday achieve power densities > 10x chemical technologies?" … Revolution. Here is how and why.” L. Larsen, Lattice Energy LLC, has been updated and revised through October 29, 2014 [101 slides] http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-revolutionary-lenrs-could-power-future-aircraft-and-other-systems-feb-16-2014 “A primer for electro-weak induced low energy nuclear reactions” Y. Srivastava, A. Widom, and L. Larsen, Pramana - Journal of Physics 75 pp. 617 - 637 (2010) Abstract: “Under special circumstances, electromagnetic and weak interactions can induce low-energy nuclear reactions to occur with observable rates for a variety of processes. A common element in all these applications is that the electromagnetic energy stored in many relatively slow-moving electrons can (under appropriate circumstances) be collectively transferred into fewer, much faster electrons with energies sufficient for the latter to combine with protons (or deuterons, if present) to produce neutrons via weak interactions. The produced neutrons can then initiate low-energy nuclear reactions through further nuclear transmutations. The aim of this paper is to extend and enlarge upon various examples analyzed previously, present order of magnitude estimates for each and to illuminate a common unifying theme amongst all of them.” http://www.ias.ac.in/pramana/v75/p617/fulltext.pdf Review paper that covers all theoretical aspects of basic Widom-Larsen theory published to date:
  101. 101. November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 101November 19, 2014 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2014 All rights reserved 101 Commercializing a next-generation source of green CO2-free nuclear energy Bon Jovi “Livin’ on a prayer” from Slippery When Wet album (1986) “Whoa, we're half way there. Whoa, livin' on a prayer. Take my hand and we'll make it - I swear. Whoa, livin' on a prayer. We've gotta hold on to what we've got. It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not. So what! We give it a shot. We've gotta hold on ready or not. You live for the fight when it's all that you've got. Take my hand and we'll make it - I swear. Whoa, we're half way there. Whoa, livin' on a prayer.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfK0_jremz0

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