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Lecture 7
Technical Analysis
Economics 98 / 198
Fall 2007
Announcements
• Hand in homework by the end of class
Current Events / News
Simulation Discussion
Lecture Content
Today…
• Introduction to technical analysis
– Basics & definitions
– Stock charts & chart types
– Moving Averages
– Trends / Channels
– Support & Resistance
– Volume
Technical Analysis? Huh?
• Don’t get intimidated when hear “technical
analysis”
• Comes down to your supply and demand
– How is this different from fundamental analysis?
• Tries to make sense of market emotions by
studying the market actions
CHART BASICS
Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
Basic Terms
• Volatility
• Fluctuations
• 52-week high / low
• Price / trading range
• Open / closing price
Charts
• Maps price performance
• Sheds light on supply
and demand
• “investment roadmap”
• Price / volume
relationship important
Chart Types - Line Charts
• Most basic of all charts
• Just a line that connects
the closing prices over a
time frame
• No trading range
Chart Types – Bar Chart
• Vertical line represents highs/lows of the day
• Horizontal line represents closing price
• Red = down
• Blue/Black = up
Daily High
Daily Low
Closing Price
Price Gap
Chart Types – Candlestick Charts
• Vertical line represents the
trading range
• Wide bar represents open
and close
• White bar – Up and closes
above opening price
• Red Bar – down
• Black bar – up, but closes
below the opening price
Chart Basics – Time Scale
• Time Scale
– Dates along bottom of chart (varies from
seconds to decades)
– Common Types: intraday, daily, weekly, monthly
– Subtle differences between different time scales
Chart Basics – Time Scale
Daily Chart Weekly Chart
Volume
• Amount of shares that
trade hands between
seller and buyers
• Price movements
more significant when
volume is above
average
Price and Volume
Average
Volume
Trends are your Friends
• Trend: general direction of stock
• Uptrend: higher highs, higher lows
Sometimes, trends difficult to see
Trendlines
• Simply put, a line
drawn on a chart to
represent the overall
trend
• Upward trendline,
connecting the lows,
represents support
Channels
• Two parallel trend lines that act as areas of
support and resistance (more later)
• Any break through the channel is a break of the
trend, otherwise the price should stay in range
SUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
By Johns Wu & thebulltrader.com
Chart Analysis : Support
Price at which BUYERS > SELLERS consistently.
Buyers who missed out on the first dip will be
pressured to buy if price continues to respect the
support.
AMZN Example of Supports
AMZN retraces from a
monstrous rally to $60
AMZN stops tanking at
$60. NOT A
COINCIDENCE.
GOOG Support Psychology
GOOG skyrockets from
AWESOME earnings, but
should I buy it????
$510. MANNNN, I should have
bought GOOG
OK. I’m not
gonna miss
out again.
BUY @ $452
$$$$$!!
CAUTION:
Supports can
breakdown.
Support Breakdowns
SELL if support “breaks down”, because it
signifies that BUYERS no longer overpower
SELLERS.
Breakdowns are a BEARISH SELL signal.
You should have sold here,
at the BREAK DOWN.
Chart Analysis : Resistance
Price at which SELLERS overwhelm
BUYERS consistently.
When a stock makes a new high and
then retraces, sellers who missed out @
the previous peak will feel pressured to sell
when price climbs back to that level.
TM – Resistance Psychology
I should have sold
when TM was $138!!
Finally! $138. I better
sell this time.
Should I sell?? Na, I’ll
take my chances.
Resistance Breakouts
When price “breaks out” above resistance, it
becomes a new support level. *** IMPORTANT ***
Breakout signifies clear dominance of BUYERS.
(good time to buy)
This is a BULLISH BUY signal.
My favorite trade setup.
TGT Resistance Breakout
RESISTANCE BECOMES
SUPPORT
BREAKOUT!!
SHLD Breakout Trade
MOVING AVERAGES
Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
Moving Averages (DMA or WMA)
• Most popular are 50-day and 200-day
• Shows the average price of the last # days and
plots it on a line
• Often acts as areas of support and/or resistance
WIRE – Support @ 10 WMA
WIRE – Support @ 10 WMA
CPA – Support at 20 & 50 DMA
CPA – Support at 20 & 50 DMA
20 DMA and 50 DMA
becomes points of
support for this stock
So…
• Charts are fundamental to technical analysis
• Important to understand what is shown on a
chart and the information it conveys
• Chart patterns and bases to come…
TOOLS FOR STOCK
CHARTS
Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
Charting on StockCharts.com
Getting comprehensive stock charts
• Type in the company symbol
• Once you’re at the stock page, click on
annotate to draw your own trendlines.
• From there, you will get lots of tools for
analyzing stock charts
StockCharts.com
Annotating in StockCharts
Using Charts on Investors.com
• Log in using your username and password
(you all have one as of now)
• Enter a symbol for the stock and then click
on IBD Charts just below it
– There are links throughout the website that link
to IBD charts
– Right clicking on the chart will give you important
data for that day or week
Moving
averages
Volume
Relative
Strength Line
Homework / Reading
• “Technical Analysis: Introduction”
– Investopedia Tutorial
– Link is on the download page of the website
Next Week
• We’ll be going over strategies using charts to
buy stocks
– Timing market bottoms
– Identifying chart bases / patterns
– Timing your stock purchases (after you’ve done
your research / stock screens)
• This is going to be the most technical / complicated
part so make sure you understand the basics

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lec08.ppt

  • 2. Announcements • Hand in homework by the end of class
  • 3. Current Events / News Simulation Discussion
  • 5. Today… • Introduction to technical analysis – Basics & definitions – Stock charts & chart types – Moving Averages – Trends / Channels – Support & Resistance – Volume
  • 6. Technical Analysis? Huh? • Don’t get intimidated when hear “technical analysis” • Comes down to your supply and demand – How is this different from fundamental analysis? • Tries to make sense of market emotions by studying the market actions
  • 7. CHART BASICS Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
  • 8. Basic Terms • Volatility • Fluctuations • 52-week high / low • Price / trading range • Open / closing price
  • 9. Charts • Maps price performance • Sheds light on supply and demand • “investment roadmap” • Price / volume relationship important
  • 10. Chart Types - Line Charts • Most basic of all charts • Just a line that connects the closing prices over a time frame • No trading range
  • 11. Chart Types – Bar Chart • Vertical line represents highs/lows of the day • Horizontal line represents closing price • Red = down • Blue/Black = up Daily High Daily Low Closing Price Price Gap
  • 12. Chart Types – Candlestick Charts • Vertical line represents the trading range • Wide bar represents open and close • White bar – Up and closes above opening price • Red Bar – down • Black bar – up, but closes below the opening price
  • 13. Chart Basics – Time Scale • Time Scale – Dates along bottom of chart (varies from seconds to decades) – Common Types: intraday, daily, weekly, monthly – Subtle differences between different time scales
  • 14. Chart Basics – Time Scale Daily Chart Weekly Chart
  • 15. Volume • Amount of shares that trade hands between seller and buyers • Price movements more significant when volume is above average
  • 17. Trends are your Friends • Trend: general direction of stock • Uptrend: higher highs, higher lows
  • 19. Trendlines • Simply put, a line drawn on a chart to represent the overall trend • Upward trendline, connecting the lows, represents support
  • 20. Channels • Two parallel trend lines that act as areas of support and resistance (more later) • Any break through the channel is a break of the trend, otherwise the price should stay in range
  • 21. SUPPORT / RESISTANCE Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts By Johns Wu & thebulltrader.com
  • 22. Chart Analysis : Support Price at which BUYERS > SELLERS consistently. Buyers who missed out on the first dip will be pressured to buy if price continues to respect the support.
  • 23. AMZN Example of Supports AMZN retraces from a monstrous rally to $60 AMZN stops tanking at $60. NOT A COINCIDENCE.
  • 24. GOOG Support Psychology GOOG skyrockets from AWESOME earnings, but should I buy it???? $510. MANNNN, I should have bought GOOG OK. I’m not gonna miss out again. BUY @ $452 $$$$$!! CAUTION: Supports can breakdown.
  • 25. Support Breakdowns SELL if support “breaks down”, because it signifies that BUYERS no longer overpower SELLERS. Breakdowns are a BEARISH SELL signal. You should have sold here, at the BREAK DOWN.
  • 26. Chart Analysis : Resistance Price at which SELLERS overwhelm BUYERS consistently. When a stock makes a new high and then retraces, sellers who missed out @ the previous peak will feel pressured to sell when price climbs back to that level.
  • 27. TM – Resistance Psychology I should have sold when TM was $138!! Finally! $138. I better sell this time. Should I sell?? Na, I’ll take my chances.
  • 28. Resistance Breakouts When price “breaks out” above resistance, it becomes a new support level. *** IMPORTANT *** Breakout signifies clear dominance of BUYERS. (good time to buy) This is a BULLISH BUY signal. My favorite trade setup.
  • 29. TGT Resistance Breakout RESISTANCE BECOMES SUPPORT BREAKOUT!!
  • 31. MOVING AVERAGES Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
  • 32. Moving Averages (DMA or WMA) • Most popular are 50-day and 200-day • Shows the average price of the last # days and plots it on a line • Often acts as areas of support and/or resistance
  • 33. WIRE – Support @ 10 WMA
  • 34. WIRE – Support @ 10 WMA
  • 35. CPA – Support at 20 & 50 DMA
  • 36. CPA – Support at 20 & 50 DMA 20 DMA and 50 DMA becomes points of support for this stock
  • 37. So… • Charts are fundamental to technical analysis • Important to understand what is shown on a chart and the information it conveys • Chart patterns and bases to come…
  • 38. TOOLS FOR STOCK CHARTS Technical Analysis: Introduction to Stock Charts
  • 39. Charting on StockCharts.com Getting comprehensive stock charts • Type in the company symbol • Once you’re at the stock page, click on annotate to draw your own trendlines. • From there, you will get lots of tools for analyzing stock charts
  • 42. Using Charts on Investors.com • Log in using your username and password (you all have one as of now) • Enter a symbol for the stock and then click on IBD Charts just below it – There are links throughout the website that link to IBD charts – Right clicking on the chart will give you important data for that day or week
  • 44. Homework / Reading • “Technical Analysis: Introduction” – Investopedia Tutorial – Link is on the download page of the website
  • 45. Next Week • We’ll be going over strategies using charts to buy stocks – Timing market bottoms – Identifying chart bases / patterns – Timing your stock purchases (after you’ve done your research / stock screens) • This is going to be the most technical / complicated part so make sure you understand the basics