Taranaki Technology - Smart grid and consumers - Tuesday 5th February 2013

1. Solar PV: Where we are at today and
the alternatives. A cost benefit
analysis of grid-tied renewable
generation
By Michael Lawley

2. 70% Off Grid: 30% On Grid
• Off grid – 3.1kW • On Grid – 3.7kW

3. Solar PV retail prices
Source: EcoInnovation sales invoices
NZ Retail Prices
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
$NZ Retail + GST
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year

4. Approximate installed price
breakdown 2012 $NZ
• Solar PV panels $1.5/W
• Labour $1.0/W
• Tracking $0.25c/W
• Inverter $0.75c/W
• Admin/Compliance 0.25c/W
• Total $3.75/W installed
(Germany is $2.83NZ/W installed)
• 6kW installed system = $22,500 +gst

5. Your income on a 6kW PV array
• Annual generation 6600 kWhr
• Potential savings at 25c/kWhr = $1980/year
• % return = 8.8% (inflation proofed)
The above assumes you can sell at the same
price you buy or can consume it all yourself.

6. Retailer Pricing
It’s a 2 horse race
Source: SEANZ
Meridian
25c per kWhr capped at 100kWh per month, with 10c per kWhr thereafter.
Contact
17.5c
Trust Power
6.5c
Genesis
4-7c
Mercury
3.5c

7. Contact V Meridian
Contact: $1155/Annum = 5.1% ROI
Meridian: 1200 units at 25c, balance at 10c
= $840/Annum = 3.7% ROI

8. Likely Customers – On grid solar PV
• Rest homes – consume all the power
generated, no need to sell. They get best ROI
>10% as operate 24/7.
• Businesses that open every day.
• Schools (weekend base load only)
• Retired clients with money in the bank and still 20
years to live (at home during the day).
• The affluent green consumer.
• Uninformed clients that want to beat the system.

9. What falls in price faster than
Solar PV?
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
$NZ Retail + GST
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year

10. Answer:
Meridian buy back price
30
25
NZ cents/kWhr
20
15
10
5
0
2011 2012
Year

11. Can Solar PV make a difference?
Germany Breaks World Record for
Solar Power Generation with 22GW
With highs of 23ºC and cloudless
skies on May 26, Germany produced
22GW of electricity, meeting nearly
50% of the country’s midday
electricity needs.
The 50% peak is only 3% of the total
annual generation.

12. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germany_Electricity_Generation_5-25-26-2012.png

13. 2008 per minute electricity consumption
80,000 19/05/2008
20/05/2008
21/05/2008
70,000 22/05/2008
23/05/2008
24/05/2008
60,000 25/05/2008
26/05/2008
27/05/2008
50,000 28/05/2008
29/05/2008
30/05/2008
Watts
40,000 31/05/2008
1/06/2008
2/06/2008
30,000
3/06/2008
4/06/2008
5/06/2008
20,000
6/06/2008
7/06/2008
8/06/2008
10,000
9/06/2008
10/06/2008
0 11/06/2008
0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 12/06/2008
Time of day
Inglewood high school

14. Summary – Solar PV
• Commercial: Match clients demand
profile to PV generation profile to
minimise units sold to the grid. Return
typically in the range 8-10%.
• Domestic: Locate the right client
match, ask why the client wants to
install solar PV? Return typically in the
range 3-5%.

15. Small Wind – Economics killed by solar PV

16. Small Hydro – Still the most cost effective on good sites

17. Enough talk – let’s hook up a solar PV
system
"I’d put my money on the Sun and Solar
Energy, what a source of Power! I hope
we don’t have to wait until oil and coal
run out, before we tackle that.”
-Thomas Edison

18. Questions