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LendIt USA 2017
March 6 & 7
NYC
Synopses of Attended Sessions
Preface
Ralph	
  Daloisio 2
• The	
  5th annual	
  LendIt	
  conference	
  was	
  held	
  at	
  the	
  Jacob	
  Javits Center	
  in	
  NYC	
  on	
  March	
  6th and	
  7th
• Around	
  5,800	
  people	
  attended
• There	
  were	
  11	
  “tracks,”	
  of	
  which	
  up	
  to	
  9	
  were	
  occurring	
  simultaneously– making	
  it	
  impossible	
  for	
  
one	
  person	
  to	
  cover	
  the	
  entire	
  conference
• This	
  deck	
  of	
  slides	
  summarizes	
  18	
  of	
  the	
  36	
  keynote	
  addresses	
  and	
  panels,	
  +	
  one	
  breakout	
  panel
• Slide	
  inlays	
  come	
  directly	
  from	
  the	
  presenters	
  themselves
• Added	
  bullet-­‐point	
  comments	
  reflect	
  notes	
  I	
  took	
  to	
  record	
  the	
  points	
  being	
  made	
  by	
  presenters
• Words	
  appearing	
  in	
  “[	
  ]”	
  are	
  my	
  own	
  comments,	
  but	
  these	
  have	
  been	
  kept	
  to	
  a	
  minimum
• Slide	
  #8	
  lists	
  all	
  36	
  keynotes,	
  and	
  highlights	
  the	
  ones	
  summarized	
  in	
  this	
  deck
• Slides	
  #9	
  thru	
  #11	
  contain	
  my	
  conclusions	
  (to	
  be	
  read	
  at	
  your	
  own	
  peril,	
  if	
  read	
  at	
  all)
• Slides	
  #12	
  thru	
  #14	
  contain	
  the	
  “Top	
  Takeaways”	
  from	
  the	
  sessions	
  covered
• I	
  hope	
  you	
  find	
  some	
  useful	
  information	
  in	
  what	
  follows
Table	
  of	
  Contents (1/2)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 3
Topic	
  or	
  Presenter(s) Page Numbers
Historical	
  Number	
  of	
  Attendees	
  and	
  Exhibitors 5,6
LendIt USA	
  2017	
  ”Bandwidth”:	
  Categories,	
  Topics,	
  and	
  (Number	
  of	
  Sessions) 7
List	
  of	
  Keynote	
  Sessions	
  and	
  Panels 8
My	
  Conclusions (read	
  at	
  your	
  own	
  peril) 9-­‐11
Top	
  Takeaways 12-­‐14
Scott	
  Sanborn, President	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Lending	
  Club 15
Ash	
  Gupta,	
  President	
  of	
  Global	
  Credit	
  Risk	
  and	
  Information	
  Management	
  at	
  American	
  Express 16
Nigel	
  Morris,	
  Managing	
  Partner,	
  QED 17-­‐19
Rob	
  Frohwein,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Kabbage 20-­‐24
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ 25-­‐31
Investor	
  Insights	
  Panel:	
  	
  Every	
  Originator	
  Will	
  Launch	
  a	
  Fund 32
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot 33-­‐39
Table	
  of	
  Contents (2/2)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 4
Topic	
  or	
  Presenter(s) Page Numbers
Ron	
  Suber,	
  President,	
  Prosper 40-­‐43
Thomas	
  Curry,	
  Comptroller	
  of	
  the	
  Currency 44-­‐47
John	
  Sculley,	
  Vice	
  Chairman,	
  Lantern	
  Credit 48
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma 49-­‐56
David	
  Girouard,	
  CEO,	
  Upstart 57,58
Rabobank,	
  Snehal Fulzele and	
  Marcel	
  Gerritsen 59-­‐61
Richard	
  Cordray,	
  Director,	
  CFPB 62-­‐66
Peter	
  Renton,	
  Chairman	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  LendIt 67-­‐71
Jackie	
  Reses,	
  Lead,	
  Square	
  Capital 72
NovaCredit,	
  Winner	
  of	
  PitchIt 2017 73
Matt	
  Burton,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Orchard 74-­‐78
Multiple	
  Participants,	
  Where	
  is	
  Alternative	
  Financing	
  Heading? 79-­‐82
LendIt	
  USA	
  Attendance	
  (Historical)
375 975
2,500
3,500
5,800
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LendIt2USA2Attendance
#"of"Attendees
Ralph	
  Daloisio 5
Source:	
  	
  “The	
  LendIt	
  Story.”	
  deBanked Magazine January/February	
  2017
LendIt	
  USA	
  Exhibitor	
  Participation	
  (Historical)
18
47
112
177
210
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LendIt0USA0Exhibitors
#"of"Exhibitors
Ralph	
  Daloisio 6
Source:	
  	
  “The	
  LendIt	
  Story.”	
  deBanked Magazine January/February	
  2017
LendIt	
  USA	
  2017	
  “Bandwidth”:	
  Categories,	
  Topics	
  &	
  (#	
  of	
  Sessions)
Keynote
Sessions
Innovation	
  
in	
  Lending
Innovation
in	
  Real	
  
Estate
The	
  Fintech	
  
Universe
Bank	
  
Technology
The	
  
Investor’s	
  
Perspective
Company	
  
Demos
Global
Perspective
Policy	
  &	
  
Regulation
Financial	
  
Inclusion
Training	
  for	
  
Staff
DAY
1
(19)
Small	
  
Business	
  
Lending
(8)
Block-­‐
chain
(4)
Investor	
  
Insights	
  
(7)
(25) (8) (8) (8)
Sales	
  
and	
  
Mrkting	
  
(4)
Insur-­‐
Tech
(4)
Fund
Manager	
  
Pitches
(14)
Tech &	
  
Ops
(4)
DAY
2
(17)
Credit	
  
and	
  
Under-­‐
writing	
  
(9)
Digital	
  
Mort-­‐
gages	
  
(4)
Digital
Wealth	
  
Manage-­‐
ment
(4)
Bank	
  
Partner-­‐
ships
(4)
Autos,	
  
SLs,	
  
Equip.
Etc.
(7)
(20)
Consum-­‐
er
Lending	
  
(8)
Resi-­‐ &	
  
Commer-­‐
cial Real	
  
Estate	
  
(4)
Fintech	
  
AI	
  &	
  
Biomet-­‐
rics
(3)
Digital	
  
Banking	
  
(3)
Fund
Manager	
  
Pitches
(15)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 7
List	
  of	
  Keynote	
  Speeches	
  and	
  Panels	
  (All	
  Held	
  in	
  the	
  Special	
  Events	
  Hall)
Summaries	
  Contained	
  within	
  are	
  Highlighted	
  in	
  Yellow
KEYNOTE DAY	
  ONE	
  MARCH	
  6TH DAY	
  TWO MARCH	
  7TH
1 Welcome Remarks	
  (Brustkern,	
  Jones,	
  and	
  Renton) Welcome	
  Remarks	
  (Renton)
2 Investing	
  in	
  the	
  Future	
  (Sanborn) Blockchain Revolution	
  (Don	
  and	
  Alex Tapscott)
3 Innovation in	
  Credit	
  Granting	
  with	
  Big	
  Data	
  (Gupta) The	
  End	
  of	
  the	
  Beginning	
  (Jenkins	
  and	
  King)
4 If	
  I	
  Were to	
  Start	
  a	
  Bank	
  Today,	
  This	
  is	
  What	
  it	
  Would	
  Look	
  Like	
  (Morris) Cognitive Computing	
  &	
  AI	
  are	
  Transforming	
  Financial	
  Services	
  (Walter)
5 Alternative Lending	
  is	
  Dead,	
  Long	
  Live	
  Data	
  (Frohwein) China	
  Fintech	
  Opportunity	
  to	
  the	
  World (Hai	
  and	
  Guo)
6 Why	
  Securitization &	
  Online	
  Lending	
  are	
  So	
  Important	
  (Ahluwalia) Unstoppable	
  Trends	
  in	
  Online	
  Lending	
  (Breslow)
7 Fintech:	
  The	
  View	
  from	
  Congress	
  (Congressman	
  McHenry) Scaling the	
  Movement	
  of	
  Financial	
  Inclusion	
  (Jung)
8 The	
  Future of	
  Advice	
  (Stein) Investing	
  with Impact:	
  	
  Digital	
  Wealth	
  with	
  a	
  Conscience	
  (Walia)
9 Modern Lending:	
  Today	
  &	
  Tomorrow	
  (Hsieh) How	
  Marcus	
  is	
  Altering	
  the	
  Online	
  Lending	
  Landscape	
  (Talwar & O’Connell)
10 Trade	
  Finance	
  on	
  the	
  Blockchain (Htite) The	
  Marketplace	
  Lending Global	
  Overview	
  (Renton)
11 Online	
  Lending:	
  An	
  Industry	
  Built	
  to	
  Last	
  (Suber) Tech	
  Chat:	
  	
  The	
  Role Lending	
  Can	
  Play	
  in	
  Empowering	
  More	
  Businesses	
  (Reses)
12 Financial	
  Technology	
  Innovation	
  &	
  the	
  Federal	
  Banking System	
  (Curry) Pitchit @	
  LendIt	
  Winner’s	
  Company	
  Demo	
  (Sigel)
13 The	
  Intersection of	
  Technology	
  and	
  Consumer	
  Credit	
  (Sculley) Expanding	
  the	
  Tent	
  for	
  Both	
  Investors	
  and	
  Originators	
  (Burton)
14 From	
  Wild to	
  Healthy	
  Growth:	
  China	
  Fintech	
  (Fang	
  &	
  Cao) Three	
  Years	
  Out:	
  	
  Where	
  is	
  Alternative	
  Financing	
  Heading?	
  (5-­‐Person	
  Panel)
15 Personal	
  Loans:	
  	
  The	
  Keys	
  to	
  Success (Lin) Pitchit @	
  LendIt	
  Audience Winner’s	
  Company	
  Demo	
  (Sigel)
16 Is	
  Fintech	
  More	
  Fin	
  than	
  Tech?	
  (Girouard) Taking	
  the	
  High Road:	
  	
  There’s	
  a	
  Lot	
  Less	
  Traffic	
  There	
  (Wang)
17 Innovation	
  at	
  the	
  Edge:	
  	
  Banks	
  Transition	
  to	
  Hybrids	
  (Fulzele &	
  Gerritsen) Closing	
  Remarks (Renton)
18 The	
  Latest	
  M&A	
  Trends in	
  Fintech	
  (McLaughlin	
  and	
  Ciporin)
19 Fintech	
  Innovation:	
  	
  The	
  View	
  of	
  the	
  CFPB	
  (Cordray) Ralph	
  Daloisio 8
My	
  Conclusions	
  (read	
  at	
  your	
  own	
  peril) (1/3)
• The	
  threat	
  of	
  the	
  “titans	
  of	
  tech”	
  (Amazon,	
  Google,	
  Facebook,	
  etc)	
  stampeding	
  over	
  the	
  nascent	
  
Fintech	
  industry	
  is	
  overblown,	
  baring	
  an	
  act	
  by	
  Congress	
  and	
  the	
  current	
  Administration	
  to	
  undo	
  
the	
  Bank	
  Holding	
  Company	
  Act	
  which	
  clearly	
  separates	
  banking	
  and	
  commerce.	
  	
  (Walmart	
  has	
  
been	
  trying	
  to	
  expand	
  into	
  banking	
  for	
  years	
  with	
  minimal	
  inroads.)	
  	
  And	
  given	
  the	
  ties	
  between	
  
the	
  current	
  Administration	
  and	
  Goldman	
  Sachs	
  (the	
  best	
  marriage	
  yet	
  between	
  technology	
  and	
  
banking),	
  it’s	
  only	
  a	
  distant	
  possibility	
  at	
  best.
• There	
  is	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  ”smoke	
  and	
  mirrors”	
  around	
  alternative	
  data’s	
  predictive	
  qualities.	
  	
  
• Good	
  science	
  often	
  leads	
  us	
  to	
  counter-­‐intuitive	
  results.	
  	
  Beware	
  of	
  what	
  “feels	
  right.”
• More	
  independent	
  and	
  scientific	
  rigor	
  is	
  needed	
  to	
  validate	
  conclusions	
  drawn	
  from	
  new	
  sets	
  of	
  
data.	
  	
  
• If	
  alternative	
  data	
  results	
  are	
  coming	
  from	
  someone	
  who	
  is	
  trying	
  to	
  offer	
  a	
  better	
  mousetrap,	
  
there’s	
  an	
  inherent	
  bias	
  already	
  that	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  overcome.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 9
My	
  Conclusions	
  (read	
  at	
  your	
  own	
  peril) (2/3)
• Traditional	
  bureau	
  scores	
  are	
  “behavioral”	
  estimates	
  that	
  rank-­‐order	
  riskiness	
  among	
  the	
  universe	
  
of	
  borrowers	
  for	
  whom	
  a	
  score	
  can	
  be	
  assigned.	
  	
  There	
  are	
  three	
  issues	
  here:
1. They	
  don’t	
  provide	
  a	
  complete	
  picture	
  of	
  a	
  borrower’s	
  willingness	
  and	
  ability	
  to	
  repay.	
  	
  Better	
  
information	
  is	
  needed	
  to	
  estimate	
  default	
  probabilities,	
  loss-­‐given	
  default,	
  and	
  default	
  correlations– all	
  
of	
  which	
  are	
  necessary	
  to	
  efficiently	
  price	
  credit	
  portfolios.
2. People	
  have	
  been	
  learning	
  how	
  to	
  “manage”	
  their	
  bureau	
  scores.	
  	
  (Credit	
  Karma	
  now	
  report	
  >	
  60	
  
million	
  users,	
  which	
  equates	
  to	
  >	
  31%	
  of	
  the	
  scorable adult	
  population.)	
  	
  A	
  system	
  observed	
  is	
  a	
  
system	
  disturbed.
3. The	
  bureaus	
  are	
  under	
  political	
  pressure	
  to	
  advance	
  “financial	
  inclusion.”	
  	
  New	
  approaches,	
  such	
  as	
  
FICO’s	
  45-­‐day	
  “De-­‐dupe”	
  window	
  that	
  allows	
  shopping	
  for	
  a	
  mortgage	
  loan	
  to	
  count	
  as	
  only	
  one	
  
inquiry,	
  may	
  change	
  the	
  behavior	
  of	
  the	
  bureau	
  scores	
  themselves.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 10
My	
  Conclusions	
  (read	
  at	
  your	
  own	
  peril) (3/3)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 11
• The	
  incursion	
  of	
  tech	
  into	
  information-­‐heavy	
  businesses	
  (e.g,	
  finance	
  and	
  insurance)	
  will	
  transform	
  
those	
  industries	
  even	
  more	
  so	
  than	
  robotics	
  have	
  transformed	
  the	
  manufacturing	
  industries.	
  	
  Tech	
  can	
  
automate	
  paper	
  and	
  paper-­‐based	
  decisioning in	
  a	
  way	
  that’s	
  cheaper,	
  faster,	
  and	
  better	
  than	
  
outsourcing	
  manufacturing	
  to	
  the	
  world’s	
  cheapest	
  labor	
  pools.
• Those	
  with	
  the	
  best	
  data	
  (not	
  the	
  most	
  data)	
  and	
  most	
  insightful	
  algorithms	
  will	
  have	
  the	
  advantage.
• The	
  industry	
  is	
  young,	
  mercurial,	
  and	
  unstable.	
  	
  There	
  is	
  ample	
  opportunity	
  to	
  facilitate	
  maturity,	
  
dependability,	
  and	
  stability.	
  	
  
• The	
  next	
  phase	
  of	
  growth	
  may	
  very	
  well	
  be	
  disruptive	
  to	
  the	
  disruptors	
  as	
  many	
  thinly	
  capitalized	
  
entrants	
  fail	
  to	
  advance	
  to	
  the	
  next	
  level.
• The	
  financial	
  economy	
  will	
  evolve	
  the	
  way	
  the	
  individual	
  financial	
  consumers	
  (savers	
  and	
  borrowers)	
  
need	
  it	
  to	
  evolve,	
  and	
  not	
  the	
  way	
  those	
  in	
  temporary	
  “control”	
  of	
  their	
  money	
  want	
  it	
  to.	
  	
  Give	
  the	
  
borrowers	
  and	
  savers	
  what	
  they	
  really	
  need	
  to	
  prudently	
  manage	
  their	
  current	
  finances	
  and	
  build	
  a	
  
pathway	
  to	
  higher	
  levels	
  of	
  financial	
  success,	
  and	
  one	
  can	
  make	
  money	
  while	
  delivering	
  a	
  social	
  good.	
  	
  
After	
  all,	
  it	
  is	
  Main	
  Street	
  investing	
  and	
  lending	
  to	
  Main	
  Street.	
  	
  Wall	
  Street	
  just	
  connects	
  the	
  two	
  sides	
  
of	
  Main	
  Street.
Top	
  Takeaways	
   (1/3)
• Unsecured	
  consumer	
  MPLs	
  have	
  been	
  cutting	
  credit	
  and	
  raising	
  prices	
  to	
  counter	
  higher-­‐than-­‐
expected	
  losses	
  (Sanborn)
• The	
  next	
  recession	
  will	
  see	
  many	
  failures.	
  	
  Stress	
  testing	
  into	
  the	
  forward	
  environment	
  will	
  be	
  
essential	
  to	
  capitalizing	
  on	
  risk	
  and	
  opportunity.	
  	
  Model	
  for	
  3x	
  base-­‐case	
  losses.	
  (Gupta)
• Heavy	
  frontier	
  investments	
  flowing	
  into	
  decision	
  science,	
  artificial	
  intelligence,	
  and	
  machine	
  
learning (Gupta)
• Banks	
  offer	
  resiliency	
  (capital	
  and	
  liquidity)	
  and	
  Fintech	
  offers	
  flexibility,	
  but	
  each	
  is	
  operating	
  at	
  
its	
  own	
  “fragile	
  extreme”	
  (Morris)
• Widespread	
  layoffs	
  in	
  online	
  lending	
  indicates	
  that	
  companies	
  are	
  not	
  as	
  “techified”	
  as	
  they	
  
claim.	
  	
  Technology	
  native	
  firms	
  don’t	
  need	
  to	
  dismiss	
  staff.	
  (Frohwein)
• Securitization	
  satisfies	
  the	
  5	
  traits	
  of	
  high-­‐quality	
  capital:	
  1)	
  Non-­‐recourse,	
  2)	
  Separate	
  credit	
  risk,	
  
3)	
  Match-­‐funded,	
  4)	
  Low	
  cost,	
  and	
  5)	
  Diverse	
  pool	
  (Ahluwalia)
• Look	
  for	
  innovations	
  in	
  funding	
  vehicles	
  that	
  will	
  draw	
  in	
  larger	
  pools	
  of	
  institutional	
  and	
  retail	
  
capital	
  (Mortara,	
  UBS)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 12
Top	
  Takeaways	
   (2/3)
• LoanDepot is	
  the	
  2nd largest	
  non-­‐bank	
  lender	
  in	
  the	
  marketplace	
  industry	
  and	
  it	
  has	
  less	
  than	
  2%	
  
market	
  share.	
  	
  Hence,	
  we	
  are	
  still	
  in	
  the	
  very	
  early	
  innings	
  (bottom	
  of	
  1st/top	
  of	
  2nd)	
  (Hsieh)
• Of	
  the	
  $12.6	
  trillion	
  in	
  consumer	
  debt	
  outstanding,	
  71%	
  of	
  it	
  is	
  mortgage	
  related,	
  making	
  it	
  the	
  single	
  
largest	
  addressable	
  market	
  in	
  consumer	
  finance.	
  (Hsieh)
• The	
  5	
  keys	
  to	
  future	
  success,	
  in	
  2017:	
  1)	
  Loan	
  performance,	
  2)	
  Data	
  transparency,	
  3)	
  Platform	
  
profitability,	
  4)	
  Customer	
  acquisition,	
  and	
  5)	
  Automation	
  (Suber)
• The	
  OCC	
  has	
  the	
  clear	
  legal	
  authority	
  to	
  issue	
  “Fintech	
  charters.”	
  	
  The	
  charter	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  supervisory-­‐
lite	
  and	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  granted	
  to	
  applicants	
  with	
  predatory	
  or	
  abusive	
  lending	
  businesses	
  or	
  applicants	
  
seeking	
  to	
  combine	
  banking	
  and	
  commerce	
  activities.	
  (Curry)
• We	
  no	
  longer	
  live	
  in	
  “linear	
  times.”	
  	
  We	
  live	
  in	
  “logarithmic	
  times.”	
  	
  Change	
  is	
  occurring	
  in	
  larger	
  
amounts	
  over	
  shorter	
  time	
  periods,	
  and	
  the	
  effects	
  are	
  compounding.	
  	
  (Sculley)
• We	
  are	
  about	
  to	
  see	
  a	
  huge	
  change	
  in	
  consumer	
  credit.	
  	
  Banking	
  services	
  will	
  be	
  delivered	
  to	
  banking	
  
customers	
  in	
  fundamentally	
  new	
  ways.	
  	
  Many	
  companies	
  will	
  participate.	
  (Sculley)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 13
Top	
  Takeaways	
   (3/3)
• The	
  most	
  interesting	
  change	
  is	
  the	
  potential	
  for	
  machine	
  learning—White	
  Box	
  vs	
  Black	
  Box,	
  where	
  
White	
  Box	
  =	
  transparent,	
  human	
  readable.	
  	
  Non-­‐linear	
  symbolic	
  regression	
  (“NLSR”)	
  is	
  the	
  best	
  
information	
  technology	
  for	
  processing	
  the	
  incredible	
  “exhaust”	
  of	
  consumer	
  data	
  being	
  generated	
  by	
  
banks– and	
  banks	
  use	
  only	
  1%	
  of	
  their	
  data	
  exhaust	
  today.	
  (Sculley)
• 80%	
  of	
  Credit	
  Karma’s	
  60	
  million	
  users	
  are	
  active	
  on	
  mobile.	
  Increasingly,	
  consumer	
  borrowers	
  are	
  
accessing	
  via	
  mobile	
  and	
  not	
  desktop.	
  	
  	
  (Lin)	
  
• Lenders	
  can	
  win	
  market	
  share	
  by	
  offering	
  (1)	
  approval	
  certainty,	
  (2)	
  price	
  transparency,	
  and	
  (3)	
  
simplicity.	
  	
  (Lin)	
  	
  [Most	
  borrowers	
  are	
  not	
  lawyers	
  or	
  bankers.]
• China	
  has,	
  [get	
  this],	
  over	
  2,448	
  P2P	
  lenders,	
  and	
  this	
  number	
  is	
  down	
  from	
  its	
  peak	
  in	
  2015	
  (Renton)
• MPLs	
  targeting	
  small	
  businesses	
  can	
  do	
  what	
  banks	
  can’t:	
  lend	
  to	
  the	
  28	
  million	
  businesses	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  
which	
  need	
  a	
  simpler	
  way	
  of	
  borrowing	
  <$500,000	
  	
  (Reses)
• Online	
  lending	
  is	
  expected	
  to	
  grow	
  from	
  $40	
  billion	
  today	
  to	
  $1	
  trillion	
  by	
  2020.	
  (Burton)
• There	
  will	
  be	
  more	
  businesses	
  folding	
  than	
  starting.	
  	
  If	
  VCs	
  stop	
  funding	
  unprofitable	
  companies,	
  they	
  
will	
  have	
  no	
  alternatives.	
  	
  (Carroll)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 14
Scott	
  Sanborn,	
  President	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Lending	
  Club
• 60%	
  of	
  Lending	
  Club’s	
  business	
  is	
  refinancing	
  credit	
  card	
  debt	
  with	
  amortizing	
  loans
• Customers	
  report	
  saving	
  25%	
  over	
  their	
  credit	
  card	
  option
• Expansion	
  into	
  “Innovative	
  Micro-­‐Services”	
  (e.g.,	
  identity	
  verification,	
  loan	
  pricing)
• Can	
  be	
  offered	
  from	
  existing	
  Fintech	
  business	
  models
• Some	
  tech	
  firms	
  will	
  carve	
  market	
  niches	
  in	
  one	
  or	
  more	
  innovative	
  micro-­‐services
• 3	
  key	
  marketing	
  determinants	
  when	
  originating	
  consumer	
  loans
1. Will	
  you	
  give	
  me	
  a	
  loan?
2. How	
  much	
  will	
  it	
  cost?
3. How	
  hard	
  are	
  you	
  going	
  to	
  make	
  it	
  for	
  me?
Ralph	
  Daloisio 15
Ash	
  Gupta,	
  President	
  of	
  Global	
  Credit	
  Risk	
  and	
  Information	
  
Management	
  at	
  American	
  Express
• Heavy	
  investments	
  are	
  being	
  made	
  in	
  decision	
  sciences,	
  machine	
  learning,	
  and	
  artificial	
  
intelligence
• AmEx	
  has	
  1,500	
  data	
  scientists	
  spread	
  across	
  the	
  company
• Non-­‐bank	
  suppliers	
  of	
  funds	
  (endowments,	
  pensions,	
  insurance	
  companies,	
  and	
  SWFs)	
  could	
  
enter	
  in	
  a	
  big	
  way	
  to	
  ally	
  with	
  Fintech’s	
  market-­‐share	
  grab	
  from	
  banks	
  
• Getting	
  traditional	
  investors	
  into	
  new	
  asset	
  classes	
  being	
  approached	
  in	
  new	
  ways	
  is	
  a	
  real	
  
challenge
• The	
  Next	
  Recession
• MPL’s	
  should	
  be	
  modeling	
  for	
  3x	
  current	
  credit	
  loss	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  recession
• Lots	
  of	
  the	
  post-­‐crisis	
  lenders	
  will	
  fail	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  recession	
  	
  
• Planning	
  and	
  organizing	
  for	
  this	
  will	
  be	
  highly	
  rewarding
• Stress	
  testing	
  into	
  the	
  forward	
  environment	
  is	
  critical	
  to	
  positioning	
  for	
  risk	
  and	
  reward
Ralph	
  Daloisio 16
Nigel	
  Morris,	
  Managing	
  Partner,	
  QED
• Banks	
  and	
  Fintech	
  are	
  operating	
  at	
  unsustainable	
  “fragile	
  extremes”
• Banks	
  have	
  capital	
  and	
  liquidity	
  trapped	
  within	
  an	
  inflexible	
  business	
  model
• Fintech	
  has	
  flexibility	
  that’s	
  restrained	
  by	
  a	
  lack	
  of	
  capital	
  and	
  liquidity
• Each	
  needs	
  to	
  move	
  closer	
  to	
  the	
  other
• Since	
  the	
  Great	
  Recession,	
  banks	
  have	
  not	
  covered	
  their	
  post-­‐crisis	
  average	
  cost	
  of	
  capital
• Striking	
  the	
  right	
  balance	
  between	
  Resilience	
  (Banks)	
  and	
  Flexibility	
  (Fintech)	
  is	
  “devilishly	
  
difficult”
Ralph	
  Daloisio 17
Nigel	
  Morris,	
  Managing	
  Partner,	
  QED (1/2)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 18
Since the
Great
Recession
of 2008,
banks
have not
covered
their post
crisis cost
of equity
capital
Nigel	
  Morris,	
  Managing	
  Partner,	
  QED (2/2)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 19
Rob	
  Frohwein,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Kabbage (1/5)
• The	
  question	
  most	
  Fintech	
  Alt	
  Lenders	
  asked:	
  Can	
  we	
  fill	
  the	
  void	
  left	
  by	
  banks?
• The	
  question	
  most	
  Fintech	
  Alt	
  Lenders	
  should	
  have	
  asked:	
  	
  Why	
  aren’t	
  the	
  banks	
  filling	
  the	
  void	
  
left	
  by	
  banks?
• Asking	
  the	
  wrong	
  question	
  left	
  them	
  racing	
  for	
  growth	
  in	
  customers	
  and	
  capital
• Most	
  online	
  lenders	
  started	
  their	
  business	
  the	
  day	
  they	
  made	
  their	
  first	
  loan
• 4	
  Expense	
  Categories
• Acquisition	
  and	
  Utilization
• Bad	
  Debt
• Capital
• Other	
  Operating	
  Expenses
• The	
  Fintech	
  Alt	
  Lenders	
  can’t	
  generate	
  a	
  lower	
  cost	
  of	
  capital	
  than	
  banks,	
  but	
  they	
  can	
  
fundamentally	
  change	
  financial	
  services	
  if	
  their	
  technology	
  can	
  materially	
  lower	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  other	
  
3	
  expense	
  categories
Ralph	
  Daloisio 20
Rob	
  Frohwein,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Kabbage (2/5)
• The	
  biggest	
  piece	
  of	
  technology	
  offered	
  by	
  most	
  Fintech	
  Alt	
  Lenders	
  is	
  the	
  online	
  application
• There	
  is	
  nothing	
  special	
  about	
  the	
  online	
  application
• NextCard debuted	
  the	
  online	
  application	
  in	
  1999,	
  over	
  17	
  years	
  ago.
• Many	
  online	
  lenders	
  had	
  to	
  layoff	
  employees	
  at	
  the	
  slightest	
  sign	
  of	
  trouble
• Digitally	
  native	
  lenders	
  would	
  not	
  have	
  to	
  cut	
  staff
• Kabbage answered	
  the	
  right	
  question	
  by	
  concluding	
  that	
  banks	
  cannot	
  profitably	
  service	
  small	
  
business	
  customers
• Kabbage connects	
  to	
  its	
  100,000+	
  small	
  business	
  customers	
  through	
  APIs	
  with	
  daily	
  data	
  updates
• Kabbage forged	
  bank	
  partnerships	
  with	
  3	
  leading	
  Global	
  Banks:	
  	
  ING,	
  Santander,	
  and	
  Scotia	
  Bank
Ralph	
  Daloisio 21
Rob	
  Frohwein,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Kabbage (3/5)
• Early	
  on	
  Kabbage required	
  borrower	
  consents	
  to	
  access	
  their	
  API	
  data	
  on	
  an	
  continual	
  basis	
  as	
  an	
  
ongoing	
  lending	
  condition
• Banks	
  need	
  to	
  identify	
  a	
  more	
  cost	
  effective	
  way	
  to	
  serve	
  individuals	
  and	
  small	
  businesses
• A	
  focus	
  on	
  leveraging	
  technology	
  for	
  growth	
  and	
  funding	
  will	
  not	
  create	
  a	
  sustainable	
  partnership	
  
with	
  banks
• Companies	
  that	
  understand	
  how	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  costs	
  of	
  acquisition,	
  bad	
  debt,	
  and	
  operations	
  will	
  
build	
  long-­‐lasting	
  partnerships	
  with	
  banks
• There	
  has	
  been	
  mass	
  adoption	
  of	
  Kabbage’s data	
  infrastructure	
  globally	
  by	
  banks
• Kabbage will	
  build	
  more	
  vertically	
  directed	
  products	
  leveraging	
  its	
  existing	
  data	
  infrastructure	
  to	
  
align	
  each	
  of	
  marketing,	
  business	
  development,	
  risk,	
  payments	
  &	
  collections
• Partnership	
  success	
  requires	
  one	
  to	
  solve	
  issues	
  banks	
  have
Ralph	
  Daloisio 22
Rob	
  Frohwein,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Kabbage (4/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 23
Rob	
  Frohwein,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Kabbage (5/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 24
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (1/7)
• PeerIQ’s core	
  competency	
  is	
  a	
  data	
  and	
  analytics	
  provider	
  focused	
  on	
  MPLs
• A	
  lack	
  of	
  data	
  and	
  performance	
  history	
  is	
  making	
  it	
  difficult	
  for	
  ratings	
  agencies	
  to	
  project	
  
expected	
  losses	
  (EL).	
  	
  This	
  can	
  be	
  seen	
  in	
  the	
  divergence	
  in	
  EL	
  estimates	
  from	
  different	
  raters	
  
(20%	
  in	
  a	
  latest	
  SoFi deal)	
  and	
  split	
  ratings	
  (IG/Non-­‐IG).	
  	
  [I	
  would	
  add	
  ratings	
  shopping,	
  which	
  is	
  
still	
  occurring.]
• Discrete	
  differentiation	
  across	
  multiple	
  platforms
• More	
  retail	
  friendly	
  products
• Movement	
  towards	
  a	
  3rd	
  party	
  ecosystem	
  for	
  data	
  verification,	
  loss	
  estimates,	
  etc.
• Credit	
  bureau	
  data	
  is	
  highly	
  predictive
• Acquisition	
  channel	
  is	
  usefully	
  predictive	
  too
• Benchmarking	
  is	
  important
Ralph	
  Daloisio 25
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (2/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 26
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (3/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 27
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (4/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 28
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (5/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 29
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (6/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 30
Ram	
  Ahluwalia,	
  CEO,	
  PeerIQ (7/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 31
Investor	
  Insights	
  Panel:	
  	
  Every	
  Originator	
  Will	
  Launch	
  a	
  Fund
• Every	
  asset	
  should	
  have	
  3	
  ways	
  of	
  being	
  funded	
  (Glenn	
  Goldman,	
  CEO	
  of	
  Credibly)
• Cross	
  River	
  is	
  prepared	
  to	
  keep	
  skin	
  in	
  the	
  game	
  by	
  retaining	
  what	
  is	
  being	
  originated	
  for	
  their	
  
lender	
  partnerships.	
  	
  Now	
  important	
  for	
  Cross	
  River	
  to	
  create	
  its	
  own	
  fund	
  and	
  would	
  look	
  to	
  
partner	
  with	
  a	
  third-­‐party	
  fund	
  manager.	
  	
  Big	
  question:	
  	
  Asset	
  origination	
  vs	
  asset	
  management.	
  	
  
Should	
  the	
  twain	
  remain	
  connected	
  or	
  better	
  to	
  separate?	
  (Gilles	
  Gade,	
  Founder,	
  CEO	
  &	
  
Chairman,	
  Cross	
  River)
• Players	
  don’t	
  consider	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  not	
  having	
  diversified	
  and	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  permanent	
  capital	
  
funding as	
  insurance	
  against	
  the	
  illiquid	
  periods.	
  	
  West	
  Coast	
  less	
  concerned	
  about	
  diversity	
  and	
  
sustainability	
  than	
  East	
  Coast.	
  (Jeff	
  Mortara,	
  UBS)
• Big	
  bid	
  for	
  yield	
  from	
  pension	
  and	
  sovereign,	
  but	
  they	
  are	
  looking	
  for	
  big	
  ticket.	
  	
  Publicly	
  traded	
  
pass	
  through	
  with	
  retail	
  participation	
  will	
  be	
  a	
  generic	
  optimal	
  structure	
  to	
  emerge	
  in	
  the	
  coming	
  
years.	
  (Jeff	
  Mortara,	
  UBS)
• Money360	
  utilizes	
  a	
  traditional	
  Reg D	
  Private	
  Fund	
  exempt	
  from	
  the	
  ‘40	
  ACT.	
  	
  Designed	
  to	
  be	
  as	
  
tax	
  efficient	
  as	
  possible	
  to	
  appeal	
  to	
  as	
  broad	
  a	
  swath	
  of	
  investors,	
  and	
  that	
  allows	
  leverage	
  to	
  be	
  
added	
  to	
  the	
  capital	
  structure	
  to	
  lower	
  cost	
  of	
  capital.	
  	
  (Dan	
  Vetter,	
  COO,	
  Money360)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 32
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (1/7)
• The	
  industry	
  is	
  still	
  in	
  its	
  very	
  early	
  stages:	
  the	
  “bottom	
  of	
  the	
  1st”	
  or	
  “top	
  of	
  the	
  2nd”	
  inning.	
  	
  
LoanDepot is	
  the	
  2nd largest	
  non-­‐bank	
  lender	
  in	
  the	
  marketplace	
  industry	
  and	
  it	
  has	
  less	
  than	
  2%	
  
market	
  share.
• Since	
  the	
  2008	
  peak	
  of	
  $12.7	
  trillion,	
  consumer	
  debt	
  fell	
  to	
  a	
  low	
  of	
  $11.3T	
  in	
  2012.	
  	
  It	
  has	
  taken	
  8	
  
years	
  to	
  get	
  back	
  to	
  2008	
  levels,	
  standing	
  at	
  $12.6T	
  in	
  2016.
• Mortgage	
  debt	
  as	
  a	
  %	
  of	
  total	
  consumer	
  debt	
  has	
  fallen	
  from	
  79%	
  in	
  2007	
  to	
  71%	
  in	
  2016.
• When	
  the	
  market	
  “pivots	
  back”	
  to	
  residential	
  real	
  estate	
  finance,	
  those	
  marketplace	
  lenders	
  that	
  
can	
  service	
  a	
  multi-­‐line	
  business	
  will	
  be	
  in	
  a	
  stronger	
  position.
• LoanDepot operates	
  a	
  “state	
  licensing	
  campus”	
  internally	
  to	
  manage	
  their	
  state	
  licensing	
  
requirements	
  and	
  support	
  their	
  >1,000	
  LOs	
  who	
  collectively	
  hold	
  over	
  10,000	
  state	
  licenses.
• Non-­‐banks	
  must	
  be	
  very	
  smart	
  about	
  following	
  the	
  money	
  supply,	
  acknowledging	
  where	
  we	
  are,	
  
and	
  sourcing	
  the	
  capital	
  necessary	
  to	
  fund	
  the	
  platforms.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 33
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (2/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 34
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (3/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 35
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (4/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 36
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (5/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 37
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (6/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 38
Anthony	
  Hsieh,	
  CEO,	
  LoanDepot (7/7)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 39
Ron	
  Suber,	
  President,	
  Prosper (1/4)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 40
Ron	
  Suber,	
  President,	
  Prosper (2/4)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 41
Ron	
  Suber,	
  President,	
  Prosper (3/4)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 42
Ron	
  Suber,	
  President,	
  Prosper (4/4)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 43
Thomas	
  Curry,	
  Comptroller	
  of	
  the	
  Currency (1/4)
• The	
  OCC	
  supervises	
  1,400	
  national	
  banks	
  and	
  federal	
  savings	
  associations	
  that	
  account	
  for	
  2/3rds	
  
of	
  the	
  assets	
  held	
  by	
  U.S.	
  banks	
  (ie,	
  >$11	
  Trillion)	
  and	
  nearly	
  2/3rds	
  of	
  all	
  credit	
  card	
  balances.
• He	
  specifically	
  notes	
  the	
  power	
  of	
  the	
  Fintech	
  industry	
  to	
  “expand	
  financial	
  inclusion”	
  to	
  bring	
  
“those	
  who	
  are	
  unbanked	
  and	
  underbanked	
  into	
  the	
  fold,	
  and	
  too	
  many	
  of	
  those	
  individuals	
  are	
  
concentrated	
  in	
  low-­‐ and	
  moderate-­‐income	
  communities	
  that	
  are	
  often	
  the	
  most	
  vulnerable	
  to	
  
financial	
  difficulty	
  and	
  predatory	
  practices.”
• The	
  OCC’s	
  initiatives	
  are	
  centered	
  around	
  the	
  concept	
  of	
  ”responsible	
  innovation,”	
  defined	
  to	
  
mean	
  “innovation	
  that	
  meets	
  the	
  evolving	
  needs	
  of	
  consumers,	
  businesses,	
  and	
  communities	
  in	
  a	
  
manner	
  consistent	
  with	
  sound	
  risk	
  management	
  and	
  is	
  aligned	
  with	
  a	
  company’s	
  overall	
  business	
  
strategy.”	
  	
  For	
  Fintech’s	
  that	
  would	
  pursue	
  a	
  special	
  purpose	
  national	
  bank	
  charter,	
  this	
  includes	
  
”rigorous	
  controls	
  and	
  governance	
  to	
  ensure	
  [they]	
  comply	
  with	
  applicable	
  laws	
  and	
  regulations,	
  
provide	
  fair	
  access	
  to	
  [their]	
  services,	
  and	
  treat	
  [their]	
  customers	
  fairly.”	
  	
  Compliance	
  and	
  risk	
  
management	
  should	
  be	
  built	
  into	
  the	
  company’s	
  DNA	
  as	
  early	
  as	
  possible	
  in	
  the	
  evolution	
  of	
  their	
  
business.
• The	
  OCC	
  has	
  and	
  will	
  continue	
  to	
  take	
  measures	
  to	
  support	
  and	
  foster	
  “responsible	
  innovation.”
Ralph	
  Daloisio 44
Thomas	
  Curry,	
  Comptroller	
  of	
  the	
  Currency (2/4)
OCC	
  Milestones	
  Towards	
  the	
  Special	
  Purpose	
  National	
  Bank	
  (“SPNB”)	
  charter	
  for	
  Fintech	
  
Companies:
ü March	
  2016: Issues	
  “Perspective	
  on	
  Responsible	
  Innovation”
ü June	
  2016: Convenes	
  a	
  Forum	
  on	
  Innovation
ü October	
  2016: Issues	
  Framework	
  for	
  Responsible	
  Innovation
ü October	
  2016: Establishes	
  the	
  Office	
  of	
  Innovation
ü December	
  2016: Announces	
  Charters	
  for	
  Fintech	
  Companies
ü December	
  2016: Issues	
  Final	
  Rule	
  Governing	
  Receivership	
  for	
  Uninsured	
  National	
  Banks
ü March	
  2017: Issues	
  Draft	
  Licensing	
  Manual	
  for	
  Fintech	
  Charters
Ralph	
  Daloisio 45
Thomas	
  Curry,	
  Comptroller	
  of	
  the	
  Currency (3/4)
Other	
  Key	
  Points	
  from	
  Comptroller	
  Curry’s	
  LendIt	
  USA	
  2017	
  Speech:
• There	
  is	
  no	
  doubt	
  the	
  OCC	
  has	
  the	
  legal	
  authority	
  to	
  issue	
  SPNB	
  charters.	
  	
  Authority	
  is	
  enshrined	
  in	
  the	
  
National	
  Bank	
  Act.	
  	
  Naysayers	
  are	
  patently	
  wrong.
• The	
  OCC	
  has	
  been	
  issuing	
  national	
  charters	
  to	
  banks	
  with	
  limited	
  purposes	
  for	
  decades– both	
  insured	
  
and	
  uninsured.
• The	
  OCC	
  has	
  the	
  staff	
  and	
  competencies	
  necessary	
  to	
  supervise	
  Fintech	
  SPNBs
• The	
  SPNB	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  “ticket	
  to	
  light-­‐touch	
  supervision”.	
  	
  It	
  will	
  include
• Regular,	
  on-­‐site	
  supervision	
  by	
  trained	
  and	
  highly	
  professional	
  examiners
• Assessment	
  of	
  whether	
  the	
  bank	
  is	
  operating	
  in	
  a	
  safe	
  and	
  sound	
  manner	
  and	
  complying	
  with	
  laws	
  that	
  protect	
  
the	
  consumer	
  and	
  the	
  banking	
  system
• Laws	
  that	
  apply	
  uniquely	
  to	
  national	
  banks	
  would	
  also	
  apply	
  to	
  Fintech	
  national	
  banks
• Appropriate	
  capital	
  and	
  liquidity	
  standards
• Federal	
  pre-­‐emption	
  is	
  not	
  unlimited	
  (see	
  next	
  slide)
• “OCC	
  will	
  not	
  approve	
  charter	
  proposals	
  from	
  any	
  company	
  that	
  plans	
  to	
  offer	
  financial	
  
products	
  and	
  services	
  with	
  predatory	
  or	
  abusive	
  features”
Ralph	
  Daloisio 46
Thomas	
  Curry,	
  Comptroller	
  of	
  the	
  Currency (4/4)
• Federal	
  pre-­‐emption	
  is	
  not	
  unlimited
• State	
  laws	
  will	
  still	
  apply	
  in	
  the	
  following	
  areas:
• Discrimination,	
  Fair	
  Lending,	
  Debt	
  Collection,	
  Taxation,	
  Zoning,	
  Crime,	
  and	
  Torts
• Federal	
  laws	
  apply	
  to	
  national	
  banks
• Federal	
  Trade	
  Commission	
  Act,	
  outlawing	
  unfair	
  or	
  deceptive	
  acts	
  or	
  practices	
  (“UDAP”)
• OCC	
  has	
  taken	
  the	
  position	
  that	
  state	
  UDAP	
  laws	
  apply	
  to	
  national	
  banks
• State	
  banks	
  have	
  the	
  same	
  power	
  as	
  national	
  banks	
  to	
  export	
  the	
  usury	
  laws	
  in	
  their	
  home	
  state	
  
(granted	
  by	
  Congress	
  in	
  1980)
• OCC	
  understands	
  the	
  importance	
  of	
  maintaining	
  the	
  longstanding	
  separation	
  of	
  banking	
  and	
  
commerce
• Proposals	
  that	
  would	
  mix	
  the	
  two	
  would	
  not	
  be	
  approved
Ralph	
  Daloisio 47
John	
  Sculley,	
  Vice	
  Chairman,	
  Lantern	
  Credit
• We	
  are	
  living	
  in	
  “exponential	
  time”	
  where	
  timeframes	
  are	
  rapidly	
  shortening	
  for	
  change.	
  	
  We	
  are	
  no	
  
longer	
  in	
  “linear	
  time.”	
  	
  
• We	
  are	
  about	
  to	
  see	
  a	
  huge	
  change	
  in	
  consumer	
  credit.	
  	
  Many	
  companies	
  will	
  participate.	
  	
  The	
  most	
  
interesting	
  is	
  the	
  potential	
  for	
  machine	
  learning—White	
  Box	
  vs	
  Black	
  Box,	
  where	
  White	
  Box	
  =	
  
transparent,	
  human	
  readable.	
  	
  
• Non-­‐linear	
  symbolic	
  regression	
  (“NLSR”)— acquired	
  this	
  technology	
  from	
  a	
  commodities	
  trading	
  firm.	
  
• Banks	
  are	
  generating	
  an	
  incredible	
  “exhaust”	
  of	
  consumer	
  data	
  and	
  using	
  only	
  1%	
  of	
  it.	
  	
  Lantern	
  can	
  
process	
  this	
  massive	
  amounts	
  of	
  data	
  through	
  a	
  NLSR	
  machine-­‐learning	
  platform.	
  	
  
• Lantern	
  is	
  a	
  White	
  Label	
  B2B2C	
  platform.	
  	
  
• He’s	
  amazed	
  by	
  how	
  much	
  talent	
  has	
  entered	
  the	
  industry,	
  and	
  globally.	
  	
  
• Bill	
  Gates:	
  We	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  “tax	
  the	
  robots”	
  because	
  tech	
  will	
  replace	
  human	
  labor.	
  	
  
• Lantern	
  will	
  be	
  launching	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  by	
  middle	
  of	
  this	
  year	
  with	
  their	
  White	
  Box	
  solution	
  to	
  consumer	
  
credit,	
  with	
  partners	
  he	
  cannot	
  disclose.	
  	
  
• There	
  are	
  fundamentally	
  new	
  ways	
  in	
  which	
  banking	
  services	
  will	
  be	
  delivered	
  to	
  customers.	
  
Ralph	
  Daloisio 48
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (1/8)
• With	
  60	
  million	
  members,	
  Credit	
  Karma	
  sees	
  almost	
  $4T	
  of	
  consumer	
  credit	
  (~25%)
• Credit	
  performance	
  has	
  been	
  deteriorating	
  among	
  online	
  lenders
• They	
  have	
  raised	
  APRs	
  and	
  tightened	
  underwriting	
  in	
  response,	
  causing	
  them	
  to	
  lose	
  market	
  
share
• Increasingly,	
  consumer	
  borrowers	
  are	
  accessing	
  via	
  mobile	
  and	
  not	
  desktop
• There	
  is	
  a	
  need	
  to	
  utilize	
  alternative	
  data	
  sets	
  to	
  reduce	
  reliance	
  on	
  credit	
  bureaus
• User	
  data	
  can	
  be	
  captured	
  to	
  drive	
  insights	
  into	
  behavior	
  for	
  predictive	
  purposes
• Three	
  consumer	
  “pain	
  points”	
  to	
  solve	
  for	
  the	
  consumer	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  win	
  market	
  share
1. Certainty.	
  	
  Give	
  them	
  certainty	
  of	
  approval	
  before	
  they	
  apply.
2. Transparency.	
  	
  They	
  need	
  to	
  know	
  how	
  much	
  it	
  will	
  cost.
3. Simplicity.	
  	
  Make	
  it	
  easy	
  for	
  them	
  to	
  engage	
  and	
  understand.	
  	
  [Most	
  are	
  not	
  lawyers	
  or	
  bankers.]	
  
• Use	
  UserX to	
  drive	
  a	
  differentiated	
  experience	
  and	
  drive	
  down	
  acquisition	
  costs
Ralph	
  Daloisio 49
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (2/8)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 50
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (3/8)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 51
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (4/8)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 52
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (5/8)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 53
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (6/8)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 54
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (7/8)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 55
Ken	
  Lin,	
  Founder	
  &	
  CEO,	
  Credit	
  Karma (8/8)
[Is	
  Unsecured	
  Personal	
  Credit	
  Efficiently	
  Priced,	
  or	
  are	
  Bureau	
  Scores	
  Poor	
  Predictors	
  of	
  Expected	
  Loss?]
Ralph	
  Daloisio 56
David	
  Girouard,	
  CEO,	
  Upstart (1/2)
• MPLs	
  are	
  not	
  meeting	
  the	
  definition	
  of	
  a	
  “marketplace”	
  (dynamic	
  pricing,	
  superior	
  liquidity,	
  near	
  
zero	
  acquisition	
  costs,	
  and	
  network	
  effects)
• True	
  tech	
  disruption	
  is	
  “qualified	
  borrowers	
  have	
  easy	
  access	
  to	
  credit	
  at	
  rates	
  that	
  reflect	
  risk.”	
  	
  
We	
  cannot	
  be	
  further	
  from	
  this	
  today.	
  	
  We	
  are	
  leaving	
  out	
  at	
  least	
  half	
  the	
  people	
  who	
  should	
  
have	
  access	
  to	
  credit	
  and	
  those	
  with	
  access	
  to	
  it	
  are	
  paying	
  too	
  much	
  for	
  it.
• In	
  a	
  decade,	
  every	
  credit	
  decision	
  will	
  be	
  made	
  by	
  AI/ML	
  (more	
  data,	
  advanced	
  math,	
  real-­‐time	
  
continuous	
  learning).	
  	
  More	
  data	
  will	
  generally	
  prove	
  more	
  people	
  credit	
  worthy	
  than	
  not.	
  	
  
• Gradient	
  smoothing	
  and	
  gradient	
  boosting	
  are	
  supplanting	
  liner	
  regression.	
  	
  These	
  technologies	
  
are	
  being	
  used	
  in	
  Alexa	
  and	
  Autonomous	
  driving.	
  	
  Discrete	
  version	
  releases	
  are	
  not	
  real-­‐time	
  
continuous	
  learning.	
  	
  
• R2 for	
  FICO	
  is	
  41%	
  on	
  their	
  50,000	
  loans	
  (each	
  red	
  dot	
  represents	
  4,000	
  loans-­‐-­‐ shown	
  on	
  next	
  
slide).	
  	
  Upstart	
  had	
  54%	
  R2 in	
  their	
  May	
  2014	
  release,	
  which	
  improved	
  to	
  86%	
  in	
  Jan	
  2017.	
  	
  
Upstart	
  score	
  now	
  more	
  than	
  twice	
  the	
  R2 of	
  FICO.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 57
David	
  Girouard,	
  CEO,	
  Upstart (2/2)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 58
Rabobank,	
  Snehal Fulzele and	
  Marcel	
  Gerritsen (1/3)
• Rabobank	
  is	
  transforming	
  itself	
  from	
  a	
  bank	
  to	
  a	
  hybrid	
  platform	
  lender,	
  where	
  it	
  will	
  match	
  fund	
  
alongside	
  a	
  variety	
  of	
  co-­‐investors	
  with	
  varied	
  investment	
  parameters.
• Rabobank	
  will	
  retain	
  51%	
  of	
  the	
  loan	
  and	
  “syndicate/distribute”	
  49%.
• Rabobank	
  is	
  a	
  good	
  candidate	
  for	
  this	
  transformation
• Founded	
  over	
  100	
  years	
  ago	
  as	
  a	
  cooperative	
  of	
  wealthy	
  farmers	
  to	
  lend	
  money	
  to	
  the	
  poorer	
  farmers;
• Currently	
  bank	
  2	
  of	
  every	
  3	
  SMEs	
  operating	
  in	
  the	
  Netherlands.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 59
Rabobank,	
  Snehal Fulzele and	
  Marcel	
  Gerritsen (2/3)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 60
Rabobank,	
  Snehal Fulzele and	
  Marcel	
  Gerritsen (3/3)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 61
Richard	
  Cordray,	
  Director,	
  CFPB (1/5)
• As	
  innovations	
  drive	
  new	
  services	
  for	
  consumers	
  and	
  transform	
  how	
  they	
  conduct	
  their	
  finances,	
  
the	
  CFPB	
  wants	
  to	
  put	
  consumers	
  first	
  and	
  provide	
  them	
  with	
  more	
  tools	
  to	
  take	
  control	
  of	
  their	
  
financial	
  lives
• The	
  CFPB	
  is	
  the	
  single	
  federal	
  agency	
  whose	
  sole	
  mission	
  is	
  to	
  protect	
  consumers	
  in	
  the	
  financial	
  
marketplace,	
  which	
  includes	
  monitoring	
  rapid	
  changes	
  in	
  new	
  technologies	
  affecting:
• Transactions
• Lending
• Underwriting
• Money	
  management
Ralph	
  Daloisio 62
Richard	
  Cordray,	
  Director,	
  CFPB (2/5)
• Two	
  Overarching	
  Principles
1. A	
  level	
  playing	
  field	
  for	
  all	
  providers	
  of	
  consumer	
  financial	
  products	
  and	
  services.	
  	
  All	
  market	
  
participants– whether	
  large	
  banks	
  or	
  small	
  Fintech	
  startups– must	
  be	
  held	
  to	
  the	
  same	
  standards	
  of	
  
compliance	
  with	
  the	
  law.
2. All	
  providers	
  should	
  make	
  sure	
  that	
  consumer	
  protections	
  are	
  built	
  into	
  emerging	
  products	
  and	
  
services	
  right	
  from	
  the	
  start.	
  	
  They	
  must	
  be	
  essential	
  elements	
  of	
  the	
  business	
  model.
• Three	
  broad	
  areas	
  of	
  focus
1. Project	
  Catalyst
2. Consumer	
  control	
  over	
  personal	
  financial	
  data
3. Benefits	
  and	
  risks	
  of	
  using	
  unconventional	
  sources	
  of	
  data	
  to	
  underwrite	
  loans
• The	
  information	
  consumers	
  need	
  to	
  make	
  decisions	
  about	
  their	
  economic	
  opportunities	
  must	
  be	
  
accessible,	
  accurate,	
  and	
  reliable.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 63
Richard	
  Cordray,	
  Director,	
  CFPB (3/5)
• Project	
  Catalyst
• “Office	
  Hours”	
  program	
  where	
  the	
  CFPB	
  engages	
  with	
  startups,	
  nonprofits,	
  banks,	
  and	
  other	
  financial	
  
companies.
• What	
  does	
  and	
  does	
  not	
  work	
  for	
  consumers
• Potential	
  challenges	
  facing	
  entrepreneurs	
  and	
  investors
• Two	
  examples	
  of	
  research	
  pilot	
  programs
• Pilot	
  program	
  for	
  consumer	
  savings	
  plan
• Early-­‐intervention	
  credit	
  counseling	
  pilot
• Trial	
  Disclosure	
  Waiver	
  Policy
• Design	
  and	
  testing	
  of	
  alternative	
  consumer	
  disclosures	
  via	
  new	
  technologies	
  and	
  innovative	
  approaches
• Goal	
  is	
  greater	
  transparency,	
  better	
  consumer	
  understanding,	
  and/or	
  reduced	
  costs
• No-­‐Action	
  Letter	
  Policy
• Intended	
  to	
  promote	
  novel	
  products	
  falling	
  outside	
  existing	
  regulatory	
  structure
• States	
  that	
  the	
  CFPB	
  does	
  not	
  intend	
  to	
  recommend	
  any	
  supervisory	
  or	
  enforcement	
  action	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  
covered	
  innovations	
  for	
  a	
  defined	
  period.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 64
Richard	
  Cordray,	
  Director,	
  CFPB (4/5)
• Consumer	
  Financial	
  Data
• The	
  information	
  being	
  recorded	
  on	
  consumers	
  from	
  their	
  many	
  different	
  financial	
  accounts	
  (e.g.,	
  
checking,	
  savings,	
  investment,	
  mortgage,	
  credit	
  card,	
  auto	
  loan,	
  student	
  loan,	
  etc.)	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  valuable	
  
asset.
• Such	
  information	
  matters	
  as	
  much	
  or	
  more	
  to	
  their	
  financial	
  situations	
  than	
  the	
  dollars	
  they	
  actually	
  
have	
  in	
  their	
  accounts	
  at	
  any	
  given	
  time.
• Request	
  for	
  Information	
  issued	
  in	
  November	
  2016	
  inquiring	
  about	
  the	
  challenges	
  consumers	
  face	
  in	
  
accessing,	
  using,	
  and	
  securely	
  sharing	
  their	
  financial	
  records.
• Concerned	
  about	
  reports	
  that	
  some	
  institutions	
  may	
  be	
  limiting	
  or	
  restricting	
  access	
  unduly.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 65
Richard	
  Cordray,	
  Director,	
  CFPB (5/5)
• Alternative	
  Data
• CFPB	
  estimates	
  that	
  26	
  million	
  Americans	
  are	
  “credit	
  invisible”	
  (no	
  credit	
  history)
• CFPB	
  estimates	
  that	
  another	
  19	
  million	
  Americans	
  have	
  credit	
  histories	
  that	
  are	
  too	
  limited	
  or	
  have	
  
been	
  inactive	
  for	
  too	
  long	
  to	
  generate	
  a	
  reliable	
  credit	
  score
• So,	
  45	
  million	
  Americans	
  are	
  credit-­‐removed.	
  For	
  them,	
  in	
  comparison	
  to	
  the	
  credit-­‐connected	
  (~190	
  
million),	
  financing	
  their	
  lives	
  is	
  riskier,	
  takes	
  longer,	
  costs	
  more,	
  and	
  does	
  not	
  help	
  their	
  financial	
  futures	
  
as	
  much.
• Adding	
  alternative	
  data	
  may	
  make	
  it	
  possible	
  to	
  open	
  up	
  more	
  affordable	
  and	
  accessible	
  forms	
  of	
  credit	
  
for	
  millions	
  of	
  additional	
  consumers.
• February	
  2017	
  Request	
  for	
  Information
• Alternative	
  data	
  available	
  today,	
  and	
  the	
  advantages	
  and	
  disadvantages	
  in	
  using	
  it
• Alternative	
  data	
  and	
  technologies	
  of	
  the	
  future
• Main	
  topics	
  of	
  inquiry:
1. Can	
  alternative	
  data	
  help	
  lenders	
  better	
  assess	
  creditworthiness	
  and	
  open	
  access	
  to	
  the	
  credit-­‐removed?
2. Will	
  this	
  lead	
  to	
  more	
  complex	
  lending	
  decisions	
  for	
  consumers	
  and	
  industry?
3. How	
  will	
  the	
  costs	
  and	
  services	
  in	
  making	
  credit	
  decisions	
  be	
  impacted?
4. Is	
  alternative	
  data	
  error	
  prone,	
  and	
  how	
  difficult	
  will	
  it	
  be	
  for	
  consumers	
  to	
  identify	
  and	
  correct	
  the	
  errors?
5. How	
  might	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  alternative	
  data	
  violate	
  fair	
  lending	
  laws	
  or	
  create	
  other	
  risks	
  for	
  vulnerable	
  consumers?
Ralph	
  Daloisio 66
Peter	
  Renton,	
  Chairman	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  LendIt (1/5)
• Profitability	
  is	
  now	
  the	
  focus
• Banks	
  are	
  going	
  to	
  become	
  ever	
  more	
  important	
  to	
  the	
  development	
  of	
  this	
  industry
• There	
  were	
  262	
  entries	
  for	
  LendIt’s	
  PitchIt.	
  	
  NovaCredit won.
• US	
  Platforms	
  thinking	
  of	
  raising	
  $	
  should	
  be	
  in	
  China.	
  	
  China’s	
  influence	
  is	
  growing.
• Biggest	
  US	
  stories	
  in	
  2016
• Lending	
  Club	
  challenges
• OCC	
  Fintech	
  Charter
• Goldman	
  Sachs	
  launches	
  Marcus
• The	
  first	
  lending	
  platform	
  failures
• Securitization	
  market	
  grows
• Industry	
  associations	
  get	
  some	
  traction
Ralph	
  Daloisio 67
Peter	
  Renton,	
  Chairman	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  LendIt (2/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 68
Peter	
  Renton,	
  Chairman	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  LendIt (3/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 69
Peter	
  Renton,	
  Chairman	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  LendIt (4/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 70
Peter	
  Renton,	
  Chairman	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  LendIt (5/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 71
Jackie	
  Reses,	
  Lead,	
  Square	
  Capital
• Vast	
  majority	
  of	
  the	
  very	
  small	
  businesses	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  want	
  loans	
  <$500,000	
  while	
  lenders’	
  minimum	
  is	
  $1,000,000.	
  
• Documentation	
  is	
  too	
  complex	
  and	
  demanding	
  for	
  these	
  types	
  of	
  borrowers	
  (28	
  million	
  in	
  the	
  USA).	
  	
  
• With	
  2.1	
  million	
  merchants	
  on	
  the	
  Square	
  dashboard,	
  offers	
  are	
  displayed	
  and	
  within	
  3	
  clicks	
  and	
  within	
  24	
  hours	
  the	
  small	
  
business	
  can	
  get	
  the	
  capital	
  it	
  needs	
  over	
  the	
  time	
  it	
  needs	
  it.
• Repayment	
  can	
  occur	
  through	
  daily	
  card	
  sales	
  which	
  matches	
  their	
  cash	
  inflow	
  to	
  their	
  debt	
  service	
  burden.	
  
• $120B	
  estimated	
  in	
  pent	
  up	
  demand	
  for	
  small	
  business	
  loans	
  vs	
  maybe	
  $15	
  billion	
  outstanding	
  in	
  all	
  of	
  US	
  Fintech.	
  	
  
• Small	
  businesses	
  really	
  need	
  outsourced	
  services	
  for	
  credit	
  and	
  management.	
  	
  
• Square	
  earns	
  the	
  trust	
  of	
  their	
  merchants	
  from	
  the	
  very	
  beginning,	
  since	
  they	
  commence	
  the	
  relationship	
  with	
  merchant	
  
card	
  services.	
  	
  Shows	
  simple	
  and	
  transparent	
  figures	
  for	
  borrowings	
  that	
  foster	
  trust.	
  	
  
• In	
  2016	
  switched	
  MCA	
  product	
  to	
  a	
  loan.	
  	
  Sellers	
  wanted	
  to	
  prepay	
  their	
  MCA	
  but	
  could	
  not	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  “product	
  design.”	
  	
  
• Feels	
  the	
  entire	
  industry	
  has	
  only	
  just	
  started.	
  	
  Loans	
  have	
  been	
  around	
  for	
  hundreds	
  of	
  years	
  and	
  capital	
  fungibility is	
  
high.	
  	
  Speed,	
  Transparency,	
  and	
  Flexibility	
  have	
  only	
  recently	
  become	
  features	
  of	
  the	
  commoditized	
  product	
  of	
  lending.	
  	
  
• Rates	
  to	
  rise	
  due	
  to	
  GDP,	
  Employment,	
  Inflation…	
  but	
  Square	
  has	
  not	
  had	
  to	
  raise	
  rates	
  and	
  expects	
  overtime	
  its	
  cost	
  of	
  
capital	
  will	
  decline	
  as	
  it	
  scales.	
  	
  Small	
  business	
  is	
  less	
  yield	
  sensitive	
  in	
  the	
  economy.	
  	
  [No	
  wonder.	
  	
  APRs	
  are	
  huge.]
Ralph	
  Daloisio 72
NovaCredit,	
  Winner	
  of	
  PitchIt 2017
• 1st Place	
  in	
  a	
  field	
  of	
  262	
  entries.
• Took	
  1st in	
  both the	
  Company	
  Demo	
  Category	
  AND	
  the	
  Audience	
  Demo	
  Category
• Arose	
  to	
  address	
  a	
  market	
  need:	
  individual	
  credit	
  profiles	
  did	
  not	
  follow	
  the	
  individuals	
  as	
  they	
  relocated	
  
around	
  the	
  globe.	
  	
  
• Local	
  lenders	
  could	
  not	
  or	
  did	
  not	
  want	
  to	
  lend	
  money	
  to	
  their	
  customer	
  in	
  a	
  foreign	
  jurisdiction	
  and	
  
currency,	
  while	
  local	
  lenders	
  had	
  no	
  access	
  to	
  credit	
  bureau	
  information	
  for	
  use	
  in	
  making	
  local	
  lending	
  
decisions.
• “Globetrotters”	
  were	
  “credit	
  paralyzed”.
• NovaCredit converts	
  localized,	
  immobile	
  systems	
  of	
  credit-­‐grading	
  individuals	
  into	
  a	
  global,	
  mobile	
  system.
• NovaCredit is	
  building	
  a	
  cross	
  border	
  credit	
  bureau.	
  	
  
• NovaCredit’s Passport	
  is	
  their	
  answer	
  to	
  assembling	
  data	
  from	
  multiple	
  credit	
  bureaus	
  around	
  the	
  world.	
  	
  
• Interacting	
  with	
  200	
  bureaus	
  around	
  the	
  world	
  now.	
  	
  
• NovaCredit has	
  emerged	
  as	
  the	
  “Switzerland”	
  of	
  credit	
  bureaus.	
  	
  
• Fully	
  reciprocal	
  system	
  allows	
  positive	
  and	
  negative	
  information	
  to	
  be	
  reported	
  cross	
  border.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 73
Matt	
  Burton,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Orchard (1/5)
• Reading	
  headlines	
  from	
  last	
  year	
  gave	
  a	
  misleading	
  indication	
  that	
  the	
  industry	
  was	
  dying.	
  	
  
• Companies	
  are	
  ready	
  to	
  scale	
  now.	
  	
  They	
  feel	
  they	
  have	
  the	
  underwriting	
  down,	
  the	
  people	
  in	
  place,	
  and	
  need	
  to	
  
scale	
  to	
  profitability.	
  	
  
• 2014	
  was	
  the	
  emergence	
  of	
  the	
  asset	
  class.	
  	
  2015	
  was	
  the	
  hype.	
  	
  2016	
  was	
  the	
  bump	
  in	
  the	
  road.	
  
• Believes	
  retail,	
  whole	
  loan	
  sales,	
  bank	
  participations,	
  and	
  securitization	
  will	
  grow,	
  especially	
  the	
  latter.
• Build,	
  buy,	
  or	
  partner.	
  	
  Partner	
  is	
  the	
  cheapest	
  and	
  lowest	
  risk	
  approach.	
  	
  
• Still	
  just	
  the	
  beginning	
  of	
  a	
  real	
  shift	
  because	
  consumer	
  attitudes	
  and	
  behaviors	
  are	
  changing.	
  	
  
• The	
  industry	
  needs	
  more	
  bank	
  investors,	
  SWFs,	
  pension,	
  and	
  insurance	
  cos.	
  	
  Credit	
  product	
  by	
  user-­‐type	
  (dentist,	
  
restaurant,	
  etc)	
  is	
  driving	
  customization.
• Cumulative	
  platform	
  loan	
  originations	
  through	
  2016	
  >	
  $40	
  billion	
  (~$8	
  billion	
  small	
  business	
  and	
  ~$32	
  billion	
  
consumer)
• Cumulative	
  securitizations	
  of	
  marketplace	
  loans	
  through	
  2016	
  >	
  $11	
  billion
• There	
  are	
  now	
  >	
  500	
  participants	
  in	
  the	
  U.S.	
  marketplace	
  lending	
  industry
• New	
  assets	
  classes	
  are	
  creating	
  new	
  investment	
  opportunities
• Online	
  lending	
  is	
  expected	
  to	
  grow	
  from	
  $40	
  billion	
  today	
  to	
  $1	
  trillion	
  by	
  2020.	
  	
  [Buckle	
  up?!]
Ralph	
  Daloisio 74
Matt	
  Burton,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Orchard (2/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 75
Matt	
  Burton,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Orchard (3/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 76
Matt	
  Burton,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Orchard (4/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 77
Matt	
  Burton,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Orchard (5/5)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 78
Multiple	
  Participants,	
  Where	
  is	
  Alternative	
  Financing	
  Heading? (1/4)
David	
  Klein,	
  CEO,	
  CommonBond:	
  	
  
• Very	
  excited	
  about	
  their	
  “401(k)”-­‐like	
  product	
  that	
  allows	
  employers	
  to	
  make	
  payments	
  on	
  student	
  loans
• 2	
  to	
  4	
  securitizations	
  a	
  year	
  at	
  AA	
  ratings
• 50/50	
  split	
  between	
  securitization	
  and	
  whole	
  loan	
  sales
• Structuring	
  forward	
  flow	
  agreements	
  with	
  banks	
  willing	
  to	
  accept	
  lower	
  returns	
  than	
  LP	
  investors.	
  	
  Banks	
  
will	
  buy	
  4%	
  to	
  7%	
  yielding	
  assets.	
  	
  
• 3	
  Cs.	
  	
  
• Capital.	
  	
  What	
  are	
  the	
  long-­‐term	
  sustainable	
  sources	
  of	
  capital	
  outside	
  of	
  banks?	
  
• Credit.	
  The	
  industry	
  has	
  not	
  gone	
  through	
  a	
  credit	
  cycle.	
  	
  How	
  will	
  Alt	
  Credit	
  perform	
  relative	
  to	
  traditional	
  credit?	
  	
  
• Customer.	
  	
  How	
  to	
  keep	
  customer	
  acquisition	
  costs	
  low	
  over	
  time.	
  	
  This	
  answer	
  gets	
  into	
  brand.	
  	
  How	
  to	
  move	
  from	
  
a	
  silo	
  to	
  a	
  re-­‐bundling	
  that	
  keeps	
  customer	
  acquisition	
  costs	
  down.	
  	
  [Strategy	
  will	
  be	
  customer	
  retention,	
  and	
  
expanded	
  product	
  offerings	
  as	
  the	
  customer’s	
  financial	
  life	
  broadens	
  and	
  deepens.]
• Buckets	
  of	
  risk:	
  	
  Credit,	
  Market,	
  Liquidity,	
  Political,	
  Regulatory,	
  Operational.	
  	
  Can	
  control	
  operational	
  risk	
  
well.	
  	
  Capital	
  and	
  liquidity	
  risk	
  management	
  limited	
  by	
  available	
  risk	
  mitigants and	
  their	
  costs.	
  	
  Common	
  
Bond	
  is	
  looking	
  forward	
  to	
  prove	
  out	
  their	
  sustainability	
  during	
  a	
  downturn,	
  as	
  this	
  proof	
  would	
  drive	
  down	
  
their	
  capital	
  costs	
  because	
  it	
  will	
  cause	
  big	
  players	
  with	
  marginal	
  investment	
  in	
  them	
  to	
  invest	
  larger	
  sums.	
  	
  
• Goals	
  are	
  to	
  sure	
  up	
  the	
  capital	
  base,	
  keep	
  credit	
  incredibly	
  strong,	
  and	
  lower	
  customer	
  acquisition	
  costs.
Ralph	
  Daloisio 79
Brendan	
  Carroll,	
  Senior	
  Partner	
  &	
  Co-­‐Founder,	
  Victory	
  Park	
  Capital
• 37	
  deals	
  since	
  inception.	
  $4B	
  invested	
  in	
  debt	
  and	
  equity.
• Equity	
  investor	
  in	
  Common	
  Bond.	
  	
  
• Industry	
  has	
  evolved	
  during	
  a	
  benign	
  credit	
  period.	
  	
  
• Whole	
  loan	
  sales	
  are	
  uncommitted	
  and	
  buyers	
  can	
  walk.	
  	
  
• Contractual	
  balance	
  sheet	
  facility	
  obliges	
  lender	
  to	
  lend.	
  	
  
• Their	
  investors	
  are	
  institutional	
  and	
  require	
  higher	
  returns	
  than	
  being	
  generated	
  by	
  the	
  originated	
  assets.	
  	
  
• Individual	
  states	
  control	
  consumer	
  rate	
  laws,	
  not	
  the	
  Federal	
  government.	
  	
  If	
  CFPB	
  is	
  defanged,	
  state	
  laws	
  may	
  increase	
  to	
  
fill	
  the	
  gap.	
  	
  
• Large	
  corporates	
  with	
  large	
  installed	
  customer	
  base	
  reluctant	
  to	
  lend	
  to	
  them	
  because	
  of	
  regulatory	
  uncertainty	
  and	
  
strategy	
  shift.	
  	
  
• There	
  will	
  be	
  more	
  businesses	
  folding	
  than	
  starting.	
  	
  If	
  VCs	
  stop	
  funding	
  unprofitable	
  companies,	
  they	
  will	
  have	
  no	
  
alternatives.	
  	
  
• Half	
  the	
  country	
  as	
  defined	
  by	
  a	
  FICO	
  score	
  will	
  not	
  get	
  a	
  loan	
  from	
  a	
  bank.	
  	
  LendUP and	
  others	
  like	
  them	
  have	
  better	
  
options	
  than	
  PAYDAY	
  loans.	
  	
  No	
  question	
  that	
  there	
  is	
  demand	
  for	
  the	
  product	
  but	
  lack	
  of	
  regulatory	
  clarity	
  is	
  chilling	
  that	
  
market.	
  	
  [Are	
  loan	
  options	
  “predatory”	
  or	
  necessary	
  and	
  constructive?	
  	
  Where	
  to	
  draw	
  the	
  line?]
• 30%	
  of	
  their	
  volume	
  is	
  outside	
  the	
  US.	
  	
  Looks	
  for	
  businesses	
  with	
  the	
  right	
  governance,	
  platform,	
  and	
  board.	
  	
  Even	
  if	
  
achieved,	
  the	
  currency	
  risk	
  is	
  great	
  for	
  VPC	
  to	
  have	
  full	
  confidence	
  around	
  this.	
  	
  Looking	
  for	
  ways	
  to	
  eliminate	
  that	
  risk.	
  	
  
• Lower	
  our	
  own	
  cost	
  of	
  capital	
  to	
  get	
  our	
  businesses	
  to	
  grow.	
  	
  Will	
  continue	
  to	
  look	
  outside	
  the	
  US.	
  	
  
Ralph	
  Daloisio 80
Multiple	
  Participants,	
  Where	
  is	
  Alternative	
  Financing	
  Heading? (2/4)
Gilles	
  Gade,	
  Founder,	
  CEO	
  &	
  Chairman,	
  Cross	
  River	
  Bank
• 18	
  Platform	
  engagements.	
  	
  
• In	
  the	
  business	
  of	
  risk	
  management,	
  not	
  risk	
  elimination.	
  	
  
• Buy	
  a	
  bank,	
  take	
  a	
  limited	
  OCC	
  charter,	
  or	
  partner	
  with	
  a	
  bank	
  to	
  solve	
  challenges.	
  	
  “Bank	
  in	
  a	
  
Box.”	
  	
  
• Industry	
  missing	
  regulatory	
  clarity.	
  	
  Examiners	
  have	
  their	
  own	
  interpretations	
  as	
  different	
  
examiners	
  can	
  see	
  the	
  same	
  items	
  but	
  reach	
  different	
  conclusions.	
  	
  
• No	
  agreement	
  among	
  regulators	
  on	
  how	
  to	
  best	
  address	
  the	
  unbanked	
  and	
  underbanked.	
  	
  Same	
  
fractured	
  dialogue	
  around	
  financial	
  inclusion.	
  	
  
• Payments	
  a	
  big	
  theme.	
  	
  The	
  ability	
  to	
  make	
  cross-­‐border	
  payments	
  quickly	
  and	
  efficiently	
  is	
  not	
  
available.	
  	
  Western	
  Union	
  and	
  others	
  overcharging	
  for	
  this	
  service.	
  	
  Further	
  improvements	
  in	
  
payments	
  on	
  the	
  horizon	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  three	
  years.	
  	
  The	
  regulatory	
  framework	
  (AML)	
  on	
  
payments	
  is	
  a	
  lot	
  clearer	
  than	
  it	
  is	
  on	
  consumer	
  lending.	
  	
  
• Refuse	
  the	
  status	
  quo.	
  	
  We	
  are	
  serving	
  the	
  disruptors,	
  so	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  a	
  disruptor	
  ourselves.	
  	
  
Ralph	
  Daloisio 81
Multiple	
  Participants,	
  Where	
  is	
  Alternative	
  Financing	
  Heading? (3/4)
Raul	
  Vasquez,	
  CEO,	
  Oportun
• 10	
  years	
  lending	
  $3	
  billion	
  to	
  thin	
  file	
  borrowers.	
  	
  
• Big	
  risk	
  is	
  if	
  consumers	
  get	
  hurt	
  by	
  alternative	
  lending.	
  	
  
• Expects	
  consolidation	
  in	
  the	
  industry	
  as	
  companies	
  struggle	
  to	
  deliver	
  sustainable	
  business	
  
models.	
  	
  What	
  will	
  be	
  their	
  unique	
  value	
  proposition	
  instead	
  of	
  feeding	
  at	
  the	
  same	
  trough?	
  	
  
• Entering	
  a	
  time	
  when	
  there	
  will	
  be	
  higher	
  degrees	
  of	
  income	
  and	
  expense	
  volatility	
  in	
  the	
  
employment	
  world	
  (eg,	
  chatbots,	
  autonomy,	
  etc.)	
  	
  
• Recession	
  will	
  be	
  a	
  big	
  challenge,	
  especially	
  with	
  the	
  country	
  divided	
  as	
  it	
  is.	
  	
  
• Billions	
  of	
  people	
  underserved	
  globally.	
  	
  Talla,	
  Branch,	
  and	
  other	
  companies	
  like	
  those	
  are	
  
exciting	
  to	
  them.	
  	
  
• 232	
  physical	
  locations	
  across	
  6	
  states,	
  which	
  is	
  ironic,	
  but	
  their	
  customers	
  are	
  comfortable	
  in	
  
cash.	
  	
  “We	
  were	
  profitable	
  first,	
  scalable	
  first,	
  and	
  now	
  we	
  are	
  moving	
  into	
  mobile.”
Ralph	
  Daloisio 82
Multiple	
  Participants,	
  Where	
  is	
  Alternative	
  Financing	
  Heading? (4/4)
Ralph	
  Daloisio 83
THE END

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LendIt USA 2017: Select Summarized Keynotes

  • 1. LendIt USA 2017 March 6 & 7 NYC Synopses of Attended Sessions
  • 2. Preface Ralph  Daloisio 2 • The  5th annual  LendIt  conference  was  held  at  the  Jacob  Javits Center  in  NYC  on  March  6th and  7th • Around  5,800  people  attended • There  were  11  “tracks,”  of  which  up  to  9  were  occurring  simultaneously– making  it  impossible  for   one  person  to  cover  the  entire  conference • This  deck  of  slides  summarizes  18  of  the  36  keynote  addresses  and  panels,  +  one  breakout  panel • Slide  inlays  come  directly  from  the  presenters  themselves • Added  bullet-­‐point  comments  reflect  notes  I  took  to  record  the  points  being  made  by  presenters • Words  appearing  in  “[  ]”  are  my  own  comments,  but  these  have  been  kept  to  a  minimum • Slide  #8  lists  all  36  keynotes,  and  highlights  the  ones  summarized  in  this  deck • Slides  #9  thru  #11  contain  my  conclusions  (to  be  read  at  your  own  peril,  if  read  at  all) • Slides  #12  thru  #14  contain  the  “Top  Takeaways”  from  the  sessions  covered • I  hope  you  find  some  useful  information  in  what  follows
  • 3. Table  of  Contents (1/2) Ralph  Daloisio 3 Topic  or  Presenter(s) Page Numbers Historical  Number  of  Attendees  and  Exhibitors 5,6 LendIt USA  2017  ”Bandwidth”:  Categories,  Topics,  and  (Number  of  Sessions) 7 List  of  Keynote  Sessions  and  Panels 8 My  Conclusions (read  at  your  own  peril) 9-­‐11 Top  Takeaways 12-­‐14 Scott  Sanborn, President  &  CEO,  Lending  Club 15 Ash  Gupta,  President  of  Global  Credit  Risk  and  Information  Management  at  American  Express 16 Nigel  Morris,  Managing  Partner,  QED 17-­‐19 Rob  Frohwein,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Kabbage 20-­‐24 Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ 25-­‐31 Investor  Insights  Panel:    Every  Originator  Will  Launch  a  Fund 32 Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot 33-­‐39
  • 4. Table  of  Contents (2/2) Ralph  Daloisio 4 Topic  or  Presenter(s) Page Numbers Ron  Suber,  President,  Prosper 40-­‐43 Thomas  Curry,  Comptroller  of  the  Currency 44-­‐47 John  Sculley,  Vice  Chairman,  Lantern  Credit 48 Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma 49-­‐56 David  Girouard,  CEO,  Upstart 57,58 Rabobank,  Snehal Fulzele and  Marcel  Gerritsen 59-­‐61 Richard  Cordray,  Director,  CFPB 62-­‐66 Peter  Renton,  Chairman  &  Co-­‐Founder,  LendIt 67-­‐71 Jackie  Reses,  Lead,  Square  Capital 72 NovaCredit,  Winner  of  PitchIt 2017 73 Matt  Burton,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Orchard 74-­‐78 Multiple  Participants,  Where  is  Alternative  Financing  Heading? 79-­‐82
  • 5. LendIt  USA  Attendance  (Historical) 375 975 2,500 3,500 5,800 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LendIt2USA2Attendance #"of"Attendees Ralph  Daloisio 5 Source:    “The  LendIt  Story.”  deBanked Magazine January/February  2017
  • 6. LendIt  USA  Exhibitor  Participation  (Historical) 18 47 112 177 210 0 50 100 150 200 250 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LendIt0USA0Exhibitors #"of"Exhibitors Ralph  Daloisio 6 Source:    “The  LendIt  Story.”  deBanked Magazine January/February  2017
  • 7. LendIt  USA  2017  “Bandwidth”:  Categories,  Topics  &  (#  of  Sessions) Keynote Sessions Innovation   in  Lending Innovation in  Real   Estate The  Fintech   Universe Bank   Technology The   Investor’s   Perspective Company   Demos Global Perspective Policy  &   Regulation Financial   Inclusion Training  for   Staff DAY 1 (19) Small   Business   Lending (8) Block-­‐ chain (4) Investor   Insights   (7) (25) (8) (8) (8) Sales   and   Mrkting   (4) Insur-­‐ Tech (4) Fund Manager   Pitches (14) Tech &   Ops (4) DAY 2 (17) Credit   and   Under-­‐ writing   (9) Digital   Mort-­‐ gages   (4) Digital Wealth   Manage-­‐ ment (4) Bank   Partner-­‐ ships (4) Autos,   SLs,   Equip. Etc. (7) (20) Consum-­‐ er Lending   (8) Resi-­‐ &   Commer-­‐ cial Real   Estate   (4) Fintech   AI  &   Biomet-­‐ rics (3) Digital   Banking   (3) Fund Manager   Pitches (15) Ralph  Daloisio 7
  • 8. List  of  Keynote  Speeches  and  Panels  (All  Held  in  the  Special  Events  Hall) Summaries  Contained  within  are  Highlighted  in  Yellow KEYNOTE DAY  ONE  MARCH  6TH DAY  TWO MARCH  7TH 1 Welcome Remarks  (Brustkern,  Jones,  and  Renton) Welcome  Remarks  (Renton) 2 Investing  in  the  Future  (Sanborn) Blockchain Revolution  (Don  and  Alex Tapscott) 3 Innovation in  Credit  Granting  with  Big  Data  (Gupta) The  End  of  the  Beginning  (Jenkins  and  King) 4 If  I  Were to  Start  a  Bank  Today,  This  is  What  it  Would  Look  Like  (Morris) Cognitive Computing  &  AI  are  Transforming  Financial  Services  (Walter) 5 Alternative Lending  is  Dead,  Long  Live  Data  (Frohwein) China  Fintech  Opportunity  to  the  World (Hai  and  Guo) 6 Why  Securitization &  Online  Lending  are  So  Important  (Ahluwalia) Unstoppable  Trends  in  Online  Lending  (Breslow) 7 Fintech:  The  View  from  Congress  (Congressman  McHenry) Scaling the  Movement  of  Financial  Inclusion  (Jung) 8 The  Future of  Advice  (Stein) Investing  with Impact:    Digital  Wealth  with  a  Conscience  (Walia) 9 Modern Lending:  Today  &  Tomorrow  (Hsieh) How  Marcus  is  Altering  the  Online  Lending  Landscape  (Talwar & O’Connell) 10 Trade  Finance  on  the  Blockchain (Htite) The  Marketplace  Lending Global  Overview  (Renton) 11 Online  Lending:  An  Industry  Built  to  Last  (Suber) Tech  Chat:    The  Role Lending  Can  Play  in  Empowering  More  Businesses  (Reses) 12 Financial  Technology  Innovation  &  the  Federal  Banking System  (Curry) Pitchit @  LendIt  Winner’s  Company  Demo  (Sigel) 13 The  Intersection of  Technology  and  Consumer  Credit  (Sculley) Expanding  the  Tent  for  Both  Investors  and  Originators  (Burton) 14 From  Wild to  Healthy  Growth:  China  Fintech  (Fang  &  Cao) Three  Years  Out:    Where  is  Alternative  Financing  Heading?  (5-­‐Person  Panel) 15 Personal  Loans:    The  Keys  to  Success (Lin) Pitchit @  LendIt  Audience Winner’s  Company  Demo  (Sigel) 16 Is  Fintech  More  Fin  than  Tech?  (Girouard) Taking  the  High Road:    There’s  a  Lot  Less  Traffic  There  (Wang) 17 Innovation  at  the  Edge:    Banks  Transition  to  Hybrids  (Fulzele &  Gerritsen) Closing  Remarks (Renton) 18 The  Latest  M&A  Trends in  Fintech  (McLaughlin  and  Ciporin) 19 Fintech  Innovation:    The  View  of  the  CFPB  (Cordray) Ralph  Daloisio 8
  • 9. My  Conclusions  (read  at  your  own  peril) (1/3) • The  threat  of  the  “titans  of  tech”  (Amazon,  Google,  Facebook,  etc)  stampeding  over  the  nascent   Fintech  industry  is  overblown,  baring  an  act  by  Congress  and  the  current  Administration  to  undo   the  Bank  Holding  Company  Act  which  clearly  separates  banking  and  commerce.    (Walmart  has   been  trying  to  expand  into  banking  for  years  with  minimal  inroads.)    And  given  the  ties  between   the  current  Administration  and  Goldman  Sachs  (the  best  marriage  yet  between  technology  and   banking),  it’s  only  a  distant  possibility  at  best. • There  is  a  lot  of  ”smoke  and  mirrors”  around  alternative  data’s  predictive  qualities.     • Good  science  often  leads  us  to  counter-­‐intuitive  results.    Beware  of  what  “feels  right.” • More  independent  and  scientific  rigor  is  needed  to  validate  conclusions  drawn  from  new  sets  of   data.     • If  alternative  data  results  are  coming  from  someone  who  is  trying  to  offer  a  better  mousetrap,   there’s  an  inherent  bias  already  that  needs  to  be  overcome. Ralph  Daloisio 9
  • 10. My  Conclusions  (read  at  your  own  peril) (2/3) • Traditional  bureau  scores  are  “behavioral”  estimates  that  rank-­‐order  riskiness  among  the  universe   of  borrowers  for  whom  a  score  can  be  assigned.    There  are  three  issues  here: 1. They  don’t  provide  a  complete  picture  of  a  borrower’s  willingness  and  ability  to  repay.    Better   information  is  needed  to  estimate  default  probabilities,  loss-­‐given  default,  and  default  correlations– all   of  which  are  necessary  to  efficiently  price  credit  portfolios. 2. People  have  been  learning  how  to  “manage”  their  bureau  scores.    (Credit  Karma  now  report  >  60   million  users,  which  equates  to  >  31%  of  the  scorable adult  population.)    A  system  observed  is  a   system  disturbed. 3. The  bureaus  are  under  political  pressure  to  advance  “financial  inclusion.”    New  approaches,  such  as   FICO’s  45-­‐day  “De-­‐dupe”  window  that  allows  shopping  for  a  mortgage  loan  to  count  as  only  one   inquiry,  may  change  the  behavior  of  the  bureau  scores  themselves. Ralph  Daloisio 10
  • 11. My  Conclusions  (read  at  your  own  peril) (3/3) Ralph  Daloisio 11 • The  incursion  of  tech  into  information-­‐heavy  businesses  (e.g,  finance  and  insurance)  will  transform   those  industries  even  more  so  than  robotics  have  transformed  the  manufacturing  industries.    Tech  can   automate  paper  and  paper-­‐based  decisioning in  a  way  that’s  cheaper,  faster,  and  better  than   outsourcing  manufacturing  to  the  world’s  cheapest  labor  pools. • Those  with  the  best  data  (not  the  most  data)  and  most  insightful  algorithms  will  have  the  advantage. • The  industry  is  young,  mercurial,  and  unstable.    There  is  ample  opportunity  to  facilitate  maturity,   dependability,  and  stability.     • The  next  phase  of  growth  may  very  well  be  disruptive  to  the  disruptors  as  many  thinly  capitalized   entrants  fail  to  advance  to  the  next  level. • The  financial  economy  will  evolve  the  way  the  individual  financial  consumers  (savers  and  borrowers)   need  it  to  evolve,  and  not  the  way  those  in  temporary  “control”  of  their  money  want  it  to.    Give  the   borrowers  and  savers  what  they  really  need  to  prudently  manage  their  current  finances  and  build  a   pathway  to  higher  levels  of  financial  success,  and  one  can  make  money  while  delivering  a  social  good.     After  all,  it  is  Main  Street  investing  and  lending  to  Main  Street.    Wall  Street  just  connects  the  two  sides   of  Main  Street.
  • 12. Top  Takeaways   (1/3) • Unsecured  consumer  MPLs  have  been  cutting  credit  and  raising  prices  to  counter  higher-­‐than-­‐ expected  losses  (Sanborn) • The  next  recession  will  see  many  failures.    Stress  testing  into  the  forward  environment  will  be   essential  to  capitalizing  on  risk  and  opportunity.    Model  for  3x  base-­‐case  losses.  (Gupta) • Heavy  frontier  investments  flowing  into  decision  science,  artificial  intelligence,  and  machine   learning (Gupta) • Banks  offer  resiliency  (capital  and  liquidity)  and  Fintech  offers  flexibility,  but  each  is  operating  at   its  own  “fragile  extreme”  (Morris) • Widespread  layoffs  in  online  lending  indicates  that  companies  are  not  as  “techified”  as  they   claim.    Technology  native  firms  don’t  need  to  dismiss  staff.  (Frohwein) • Securitization  satisfies  the  5  traits  of  high-­‐quality  capital:  1)  Non-­‐recourse,  2)  Separate  credit  risk,   3)  Match-­‐funded,  4)  Low  cost,  and  5)  Diverse  pool  (Ahluwalia) • Look  for  innovations  in  funding  vehicles  that  will  draw  in  larger  pools  of  institutional  and  retail   capital  (Mortara,  UBS) Ralph  Daloisio 12
  • 13. Top  Takeaways   (2/3) • LoanDepot is  the  2nd largest  non-­‐bank  lender  in  the  marketplace  industry  and  it  has  less  than  2%   market  share.    Hence,  we  are  still  in  the  very  early  innings  (bottom  of  1st/top  of  2nd)  (Hsieh) • Of  the  $12.6  trillion  in  consumer  debt  outstanding,  71%  of  it  is  mortgage  related,  making  it  the  single   largest  addressable  market  in  consumer  finance.  (Hsieh) • The  5  keys  to  future  success,  in  2017:  1)  Loan  performance,  2)  Data  transparency,  3)  Platform   profitability,  4)  Customer  acquisition,  and  5)  Automation  (Suber) • The  OCC  has  the  clear  legal  authority  to  issue  “Fintech  charters.”    The  charter  will  not  be  supervisory-­‐ lite  and  will  not  be  granted  to  applicants  with  predatory  or  abusive  lending  businesses  or  applicants   seeking  to  combine  banking  and  commerce  activities.  (Curry) • We  no  longer  live  in  “linear  times.”    We  live  in  “logarithmic  times.”    Change  is  occurring  in  larger   amounts  over  shorter  time  periods,  and  the  effects  are  compounding.    (Sculley) • We  are  about  to  see  a  huge  change  in  consumer  credit.    Banking  services  will  be  delivered  to  banking   customers  in  fundamentally  new  ways.    Many  companies  will  participate.  (Sculley) Ralph  Daloisio 13
  • 14. Top  Takeaways   (3/3) • The  most  interesting  change  is  the  potential  for  machine  learning—White  Box  vs  Black  Box,  where   White  Box  =  transparent,  human  readable.    Non-­‐linear  symbolic  regression  (“NLSR”)  is  the  best   information  technology  for  processing  the  incredible  “exhaust”  of  consumer  data  being  generated  by   banks– and  banks  use  only  1%  of  their  data  exhaust  today.  (Sculley) • 80%  of  Credit  Karma’s  60  million  users  are  active  on  mobile.  Increasingly,  consumer  borrowers  are   accessing  via  mobile  and  not  desktop.      (Lin)   • Lenders  can  win  market  share  by  offering  (1)  approval  certainty,  (2)  price  transparency,  and  (3)   simplicity.    (Lin)    [Most  borrowers  are  not  lawyers  or  bankers.] • China  has,  [get  this],  over  2,448  P2P  lenders,  and  this  number  is  down  from  its  peak  in  2015  (Renton) • MPLs  targeting  small  businesses  can  do  what  banks  can’t:  lend  to  the  28  million  businesses  in  the  US   which  need  a  simpler  way  of  borrowing  <$500,000    (Reses) • Online  lending  is  expected  to  grow  from  $40  billion  today  to  $1  trillion  by  2020.  (Burton) • There  will  be  more  businesses  folding  than  starting.    If  VCs  stop  funding  unprofitable  companies,  they   will  have  no  alternatives.    (Carroll) Ralph  Daloisio 14
  • 15. Scott  Sanborn,  President  &  CEO,  Lending  Club • 60%  of  Lending  Club’s  business  is  refinancing  credit  card  debt  with  amortizing  loans • Customers  report  saving  25%  over  their  credit  card  option • Expansion  into  “Innovative  Micro-­‐Services”  (e.g.,  identity  verification,  loan  pricing) • Can  be  offered  from  existing  Fintech  business  models • Some  tech  firms  will  carve  market  niches  in  one  or  more  innovative  micro-­‐services • 3  key  marketing  determinants  when  originating  consumer  loans 1. Will  you  give  me  a  loan? 2. How  much  will  it  cost? 3. How  hard  are  you  going  to  make  it  for  me? Ralph  Daloisio 15
  • 16. Ash  Gupta,  President  of  Global  Credit  Risk  and  Information   Management  at  American  Express • Heavy  investments  are  being  made  in  decision  sciences,  machine  learning,  and  artificial   intelligence • AmEx  has  1,500  data  scientists  spread  across  the  company • Non-­‐bank  suppliers  of  funds  (endowments,  pensions,  insurance  companies,  and  SWFs)  could   enter  in  a  big  way  to  ally  with  Fintech’s  market-­‐share  grab  from  banks   • Getting  traditional  investors  into  new  asset  classes  being  approached  in  new  ways  is  a  real   challenge • The  Next  Recession • MPL’s  should  be  modeling  for  3x  current  credit  loss  in  the  next  recession • Lots  of  the  post-­‐crisis  lenders  will  fail  in  the  next  recession     • Planning  and  organizing  for  this  will  be  highly  rewarding • Stress  testing  into  the  forward  environment  is  critical  to  positioning  for  risk  and  reward Ralph  Daloisio 16
  • 17. Nigel  Morris,  Managing  Partner,  QED • Banks  and  Fintech  are  operating  at  unsustainable  “fragile  extremes” • Banks  have  capital  and  liquidity  trapped  within  an  inflexible  business  model • Fintech  has  flexibility  that’s  restrained  by  a  lack  of  capital  and  liquidity • Each  needs  to  move  closer  to  the  other • Since  the  Great  Recession,  banks  have  not  covered  their  post-­‐crisis  average  cost  of  capital • Striking  the  right  balance  between  Resilience  (Banks)  and  Flexibility  (Fintech)  is  “devilishly   difficult” Ralph  Daloisio 17
  • 18. Nigel  Morris,  Managing  Partner,  QED (1/2) Ralph  Daloisio 18
  • 19. Since the Great Recession of 2008, banks have not covered their post crisis cost of equity capital Nigel  Morris,  Managing  Partner,  QED (2/2) Ralph  Daloisio 19
  • 20. Rob  Frohwein,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Kabbage (1/5) • The  question  most  Fintech  Alt  Lenders  asked:  Can  we  fill  the  void  left  by  banks? • The  question  most  Fintech  Alt  Lenders  should  have  asked:    Why  aren’t  the  banks  filling  the  void   left  by  banks? • Asking  the  wrong  question  left  them  racing  for  growth  in  customers  and  capital • Most  online  lenders  started  their  business  the  day  they  made  their  first  loan • 4  Expense  Categories • Acquisition  and  Utilization • Bad  Debt • Capital • Other  Operating  Expenses • The  Fintech  Alt  Lenders  can’t  generate  a  lower  cost  of  capital  than  banks,  but  they  can   fundamentally  change  financial  services  if  their  technology  can  materially  lower  one  of  the  other   3  expense  categories Ralph  Daloisio 20
  • 21. Rob  Frohwein,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Kabbage (2/5) • The  biggest  piece  of  technology  offered  by  most  Fintech  Alt  Lenders  is  the  online  application • There  is  nothing  special  about  the  online  application • NextCard debuted  the  online  application  in  1999,  over  17  years  ago. • Many  online  lenders  had  to  layoff  employees  at  the  slightest  sign  of  trouble • Digitally  native  lenders  would  not  have  to  cut  staff • Kabbage answered  the  right  question  by  concluding  that  banks  cannot  profitably  service  small   business  customers • Kabbage connects  to  its  100,000+  small  business  customers  through  APIs  with  daily  data  updates • Kabbage forged  bank  partnerships  with  3  leading  Global  Banks:    ING,  Santander,  and  Scotia  Bank Ralph  Daloisio 21
  • 22. Rob  Frohwein,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Kabbage (3/5) • Early  on  Kabbage required  borrower  consents  to  access  their  API  data  on  an  continual  basis  as  an   ongoing  lending  condition • Banks  need  to  identify  a  more  cost  effective  way  to  serve  individuals  and  small  businesses • A  focus  on  leveraging  technology  for  growth  and  funding  will  not  create  a  sustainable  partnership   with  banks • Companies  that  understand  how  to  reduce  the  costs  of  acquisition,  bad  debt,  and  operations  will   build  long-­‐lasting  partnerships  with  banks • There  has  been  mass  adoption  of  Kabbage’s data  infrastructure  globally  by  banks • Kabbage will  build  more  vertically  directed  products  leveraging  its  existing  data  infrastructure  to   align  each  of  marketing,  business  development,  risk,  payments  &  collections • Partnership  success  requires  one  to  solve  issues  banks  have Ralph  Daloisio 22
  • 23. Rob  Frohwein,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Kabbage (4/5) Ralph  Daloisio 23
  • 24. Rob  Frohwein,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Kabbage (5/5) Ralph  Daloisio 24
  • 25. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (1/7) • PeerIQ’s core  competency  is  a  data  and  analytics  provider  focused  on  MPLs • A  lack  of  data  and  performance  history  is  making  it  difficult  for  ratings  agencies  to  project   expected  losses  (EL).    This  can  be  seen  in  the  divergence  in  EL  estimates  from  different  raters   (20%  in  a  latest  SoFi deal)  and  split  ratings  (IG/Non-­‐IG).    [I  would  add  ratings  shopping,  which  is   still  occurring.] • Discrete  differentiation  across  multiple  platforms • More  retail  friendly  products • Movement  towards  a  3rd  party  ecosystem  for  data  verification,  loss  estimates,  etc. • Credit  bureau  data  is  highly  predictive • Acquisition  channel  is  usefully  predictive  too • Benchmarking  is  important Ralph  Daloisio 25
  • 26. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (2/7) Ralph  Daloisio 26
  • 27. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (3/7) Ralph  Daloisio 27
  • 28. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (4/7) Ralph  Daloisio 28
  • 29. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (5/7) Ralph  Daloisio 29
  • 30. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (6/7) Ralph  Daloisio 30
  • 31. Ram  Ahluwalia,  CEO,  PeerIQ (7/7) Ralph  Daloisio 31
  • 32. Investor  Insights  Panel:    Every  Originator  Will  Launch  a  Fund • Every  asset  should  have  3  ways  of  being  funded  (Glenn  Goldman,  CEO  of  Credibly) • Cross  River  is  prepared  to  keep  skin  in  the  game  by  retaining  what  is  being  originated  for  their   lender  partnerships.    Now  important  for  Cross  River  to  create  its  own  fund  and  would  look  to   partner  with  a  third-­‐party  fund  manager.    Big  question:    Asset  origination  vs  asset  management.     Should  the  twain  remain  connected  or  better  to  separate?  (Gilles  Gade,  Founder,  CEO  &   Chairman,  Cross  River) • Players  don’t  consider  the  cost  of  not  having  diversified  and  the  need  for  permanent  capital   funding as  insurance  against  the  illiquid  periods.    West  Coast  less  concerned  about  diversity  and   sustainability  than  East  Coast.  (Jeff  Mortara,  UBS) • Big  bid  for  yield  from  pension  and  sovereign,  but  they  are  looking  for  big  ticket.    Publicly  traded   pass  through  with  retail  participation  will  be  a  generic  optimal  structure  to  emerge  in  the  coming   years.  (Jeff  Mortara,  UBS) • Money360  utilizes  a  traditional  Reg D  Private  Fund  exempt  from  the  ‘40  ACT.    Designed  to  be  as   tax  efficient  as  possible  to  appeal  to  as  broad  a  swath  of  investors,  and  that  allows  leverage  to  be   added  to  the  capital  structure  to  lower  cost  of  capital.    (Dan  Vetter,  COO,  Money360) Ralph  Daloisio 32
  • 33. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (1/7) • The  industry  is  still  in  its  very  early  stages:  the  “bottom  of  the  1st”  or  “top  of  the  2nd”  inning.     LoanDepot is  the  2nd largest  non-­‐bank  lender  in  the  marketplace  industry  and  it  has  less  than  2%   market  share. • Since  the  2008  peak  of  $12.7  trillion,  consumer  debt  fell  to  a  low  of  $11.3T  in  2012.    It  has  taken  8   years  to  get  back  to  2008  levels,  standing  at  $12.6T  in  2016. • Mortgage  debt  as  a  %  of  total  consumer  debt  has  fallen  from  79%  in  2007  to  71%  in  2016. • When  the  market  “pivots  back”  to  residential  real  estate  finance,  those  marketplace  lenders  that   can  service  a  multi-­‐line  business  will  be  in  a  stronger  position. • LoanDepot operates  a  “state  licensing  campus”  internally  to  manage  their  state  licensing   requirements  and  support  their  >1,000  LOs  who  collectively  hold  over  10,000  state  licenses. • Non-­‐banks  must  be  very  smart  about  following  the  money  supply,  acknowledging  where  we  are,   and  sourcing  the  capital  necessary  to  fund  the  platforms. Ralph  Daloisio 33
  • 34. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (2/7) Ralph  Daloisio 34
  • 35. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (3/7) Ralph  Daloisio 35
  • 36. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (4/7) Ralph  Daloisio 36
  • 37. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (5/7) Ralph  Daloisio 37
  • 38. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (6/7) Ralph  Daloisio 38
  • 39. Anthony  Hsieh,  CEO,  LoanDepot (7/7) Ralph  Daloisio 39
  • 40. Ron  Suber,  President,  Prosper (1/4) Ralph  Daloisio 40
  • 41. Ron  Suber,  President,  Prosper (2/4) Ralph  Daloisio 41
  • 42. Ron  Suber,  President,  Prosper (3/4) Ralph  Daloisio 42
  • 43. Ron  Suber,  President,  Prosper (4/4) Ralph  Daloisio 43
  • 44. Thomas  Curry,  Comptroller  of  the  Currency (1/4) • The  OCC  supervises  1,400  national  banks  and  federal  savings  associations  that  account  for  2/3rds   of  the  assets  held  by  U.S.  banks  (ie,  >$11  Trillion)  and  nearly  2/3rds  of  all  credit  card  balances. • He  specifically  notes  the  power  of  the  Fintech  industry  to  “expand  financial  inclusion”  to  bring   “those  who  are  unbanked  and  underbanked  into  the  fold,  and  too  many  of  those  individuals  are   concentrated  in  low-­‐ and  moderate-­‐income  communities  that  are  often  the  most  vulnerable  to   financial  difficulty  and  predatory  practices.” • The  OCC’s  initiatives  are  centered  around  the  concept  of  ”responsible  innovation,”  defined  to   mean  “innovation  that  meets  the  evolving  needs  of  consumers,  businesses,  and  communities  in  a   manner  consistent  with  sound  risk  management  and  is  aligned  with  a  company’s  overall  business   strategy.”    For  Fintech’s  that  would  pursue  a  special  purpose  national  bank  charter,  this  includes   ”rigorous  controls  and  governance  to  ensure  [they]  comply  with  applicable  laws  and  regulations,   provide  fair  access  to  [their]  services,  and  treat  [their]  customers  fairly.”    Compliance  and  risk   management  should  be  built  into  the  company’s  DNA  as  early  as  possible  in  the  evolution  of  their   business. • The  OCC  has  and  will  continue  to  take  measures  to  support  and  foster  “responsible  innovation.” Ralph  Daloisio 44
  • 45. Thomas  Curry,  Comptroller  of  the  Currency (2/4) OCC  Milestones  Towards  the  Special  Purpose  National  Bank  (“SPNB”)  charter  for  Fintech   Companies: ü March  2016: Issues  “Perspective  on  Responsible  Innovation” ü June  2016: Convenes  a  Forum  on  Innovation ü October  2016: Issues  Framework  for  Responsible  Innovation ü October  2016: Establishes  the  Office  of  Innovation ü December  2016: Announces  Charters  for  Fintech  Companies ü December  2016: Issues  Final  Rule  Governing  Receivership  for  Uninsured  National  Banks ü March  2017: Issues  Draft  Licensing  Manual  for  Fintech  Charters Ralph  Daloisio 45
  • 46. Thomas  Curry,  Comptroller  of  the  Currency (3/4) Other  Key  Points  from  Comptroller  Curry’s  LendIt  USA  2017  Speech: • There  is  no  doubt  the  OCC  has  the  legal  authority  to  issue  SPNB  charters.    Authority  is  enshrined  in  the   National  Bank  Act.    Naysayers  are  patently  wrong. • The  OCC  has  been  issuing  national  charters  to  banks  with  limited  purposes  for  decades– both  insured   and  uninsured. • The  OCC  has  the  staff  and  competencies  necessary  to  supervise  Fintech  SPNBs • The  SPNB  is  not  a  “ticket  to  light-­‐touch  supervision”.    It  will  include • Regular,  on-­‐site  supervision  by  trained  and  highly  professional  examiners • Assessment  of  whether  the  bank  is  operating  in  a  safe  and  sound  manner  and  complying  with  laws  that  protect   the  consumer  and  the  banking  system • Laws  that  apply  uniquely  to  national  banks  would  also  apply  to  Fintech  national  banks • Appropriate  capital  and  liquidity  standards • Federal  pre-­‐emption  is  not  unlimited  (see  next  slide) • “OCC  will  not  approve  charter  proposals  from  any  company  that  plans  to  offer  financial   products  and  services  with  predatory  or  abusive  features” Ralph  Daloisio 46
  • 47. Thomas  Curry,  Comptroller  of  the  Currency (4/4) • Federal  pre-­‐emption  is  not  unlimited • State  laws  will  still  apply  in  the  following  areas: • Discrimination,  Fair  Lending,  Debt  Collection,  Taxation,  Zoning,  Crime,  and  Torts • Federal  laws  apply  to  national  banks • Federal  Trade  Commission  Act,  outlawing  unfair  or  deceptive  acts  or  practices  (“UDAP”) • OCC  has  taken  the  position  that  state  UDAP  laws  apply  to  national  banks • State  banks  have  the  same  power  as  national  banks  to  export  the  usury  laws  in  their  home  state   (granted  by  Congress  in  1980) • OCC  understands  the  importance  of  maintaining  the  longstanding  separation  of  banking  and   commerce • Proposals  that  would  mix  the  two  would  not  be  approved Ralph  Daloisio 47
  • 48. John  Sculley,  Vice  Chairman,  Lantern  Credit • We  are  living  in  “exponential  time”  where  timeframes  are  rapidly  shortening  for  change.    We  are  no   longer  in  “linear  time.”     • We  are  about  to  see  a  huge  change  in  consumer  credit.    Many  companies  will  participate.    The  most   interesting  is  the  potential  for  machine  learning—White  Box  vs  Black  Box,  where  White  Box  =   transparent,  human  readable.     • Non-­‐linear  symbolic  regression  (“NLSR”)— acquired  this  technology  from  a  commodities  trading  firm.   • Banks  are  generating  an  incredible  “exhaust”  of  consumer  data  and  using  only  1%  of  it.    Lantern  can   process  this  massive  amounts  of  data  through  a  NLSR  machine-­‐learning  platform.     • Lantern  is  a  White  Label  B2B2C  platform.     • He’s  amazed  by  how  much  talent  has  entered  the  industry,  and  globally.     • Bill  Gates:  We  will  have  to  “tax  the  robots”  because  tech  will  replace  human  labor.     • Lantern  will  be  launching  in  the  US  by  middle  of  this  year  with  their  White  Box  solution  to  consumer   credit,  with  partners  he  cannot  disclose.     • There  are  fundamentally  new  ways  in  which  banking  services  will  be  delivered  to  customers.   Ralph  Daloisio 48
  • 49. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (1/8) • With  60  million  members,  Credit  Karma  sees  almost  $4T  of  consumer  credit  (~25%) • Credit  performance  has  been  deteriorating  among  online  lenders • They  have  raised  APRs  and  tightened  underwriting  in  response,  causing  them  to  lose  market   share • Increasingly,  consumer  borrowers  are  accessing  via  mobile  and  not  desktop • There  is  a  need  to  utilize  alternative  data  sets  to  reduce  reliance  on  credit  bureaus • User  data  can  be  captured  to  drive  insights  into  behavior  for  predictive  purposes • Three  consumer  “pain  points”  to  solve  for  the  consumer  in  order  to  win  market  share 1. Certainty.    Give  them  certainty  of  approval  before  they  apply. 2. Transparency.    They  need  to  know  how  much  it  will  cost. 3. Simplicity.    Make  it  easy  for  them  to  engage  and  understand.    [Most  are  not  lawyers  or  bankers.]   • Use  UserX to  drive  a  differentiated  experience  and  drive  down  acquisition  costs Ralph  Daloisio 49
  • 50. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (2/8) Ralph  Daloisio 50
  • 51. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (3/8) Ralph  Daloisio 51
  • 52. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (4/8) Ralph  Daloisio 52
  • 53. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (5/8) Ralph  Daloisio 53
  • 54. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (6/8) Ralph  Daloisio 54
  • 55. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (7/8) Ralph  Daloisio 55
  • 56. Ken  Lin,  Founder  &  CEO,  Credit  Karma (8/8) [Is  Unsecured  Personal  Credit  Efficiently  Priced,  or  are  Bureau  Scores  Poor  Predictors  of  Expected  Loss?] Ralph  Daloisio 56
  • 57. David  Girouard,  CEO,  Upstart (1/2) • MPLs  are  not  meeting  the  definition  of  a  “marketplace”  (dynamic  pricing,  superior  liquidity,  near   zero  acquisition  costs,  and  network  effects) • True  tech  disruption  is  “qualified  borrowers  have  easy  access  to  credit  at  rates  that  reflect  risk.”     We  cannot  be  further  from  this  today.    We  are  leaving  out  at  least  half  the  people  who  should   have  access  to  credit  and  those  with  access  to  it  are  paying  too  much  for  it. • In  a  decade,  every  credit  decision  will  be  made  by  AI/ML  (more  data,  advanced  math,  real-­‐time   continuous  learning).    More  data  will  generally  prove  more  people  credit  worthy  than  not.     • Gradient  smoothing  and  gradient  boosting  are  supplanting  liner  regression.    These  technologies   are  being  used  in  Alexa  and  Autonomous  driving.    Discrete  version  releases  are  not  real-­‐time   continuous  learning.     • R2 for  FICO  is  41%  on  their  50,000  loans  (each  red  dot  represents  4,000  loans-­‐-­‐ shown  on  next   slide).    Upstart  had  54%  R2 in  their  May  2014  release,  which  improved  to  86%  in  Jan  2017.     Upstart  score  now  more  than  twice  the  R2 of  FICO. Ralph  Daloisio 57
  • 58. David  Girouard,  CEO,  Upstart (2/2) Ralph  Daloisio 58
  • 59. Rabobank,  Snehal Fulzele and  Marcel  Gerritsen (1/3) • Rabobank  is  transforming  itself  from  a  bank  to  a  hybrid  platform  lender,  where  it  will  match  fund   alongside  a  variety  of  co-­‐investors  with  varied  investment  parameters. • Rabobank  will  retain  51%  of  the  loan  and  “syndicate/distribute”  49%. • Rabobank  is  a  good  candidate  for  this  transformation • Founded  over  100  years  ago  as  a  cooperative  of  wealthy  farmers  to  lend  money  to  the  poorer  farmers; • Currently  bank  2  of  every  3  SMEs  operating  in  the  Netherlands. Ralph  Daloisio 59
  • 60. Rabobank,  Snehal Fulzele and  Marcel  Gerritsen (2/3) Ralph  Daloisio 60
  • 61. Rabobank,  Snehal Fulzele and  Marcel  Gerritsen (3/3) Ralph  Daloisio 61
  • 62. Richard  Cordray,  Director,  CFPB (1/5) • As  innovations  drive  new  services  for  consumers  and  transform  how  they  conduct  their  finances,   the  CFPB  wants  to  put  consumers  first  and  provide  them  with  more  tools  to  take  control  of  their   financial  lives • The  CFPB  is  the  single  federal  agency  whose  sole  mission  is  to  protect  consumers  in  the  financial   marketplace,  which  includes  monitoring  rapid  changes  in  new  technologies  affecting: • Transactions • Lending • Underwriting • Money  management Ralph  Daloisio 62
  • 63. Richard  Cordray,  Director,  CFPB (2/5) • Two  Overarching  Principles 1. A  level  playing  field  for  all  providers  of  consumer  financial  products  and  services.    All  market   participants– whether  large  banks  or  small  Fintech  startups– must  be  held  to  the  same  standards  of   compliance  with  the  law. 2. All  providers  should  make  sure  that  consumer  protections  are  built  into  emerging  products  and   services  right  from  the  start.    They  must  be  essential  elements  of  the  business  model. • Three  broad  areas  of  focus 1. Project  Catalyst 2. Consumer  control  over  personal  financial  data 3. Benefits  and  risks  of  using  unconventional  sources  of  data  to  underwrite  loans • The  information  consumers  need  to  make  decisions  about  their  economic  opportunities  must  be   accessible,  accurate,  and  reliable. Ralph  Daloisio 63
  • 64. Richard  Cordray,  Director,  CFPB (3/5) • Project  Catalyst • “Office  Hours”  program  where  the  CFPB  engages  with  startups,  nonprofits,  banks,  and  other  financial   companies. • What  does  and  does  not  work  for  consumers • Potential  challenges  facing  entrepreneurs  and  investors • Two  examples  of  research  pilot  programs • Pilot  program  for  consumer  savings  plan • Early-­‐intervention  credit  counseling  pilot • Trial  Disclosure  Waiver  Policy • Design  and  testing  of  alternative  consumer  disclosures  via  new  technologies  and  innovative  approaches • Goal  is  greater  transparency,  better  consumer  understanding,  and/or  reduced  costs • No-­‐Action  Letter  Policy • Intended  to  promote  novel  products  falling  outside  existing  regulatory  structure • States  that  the  CFPB  does  not  intend  to  recommend  any  supervisory  or  enforcement  action  based  on  the   covered  innovations  for  a  defined  period. Ralph  Daloisio 64
  • 65. Richard  Cordray,  Director,  CFPB (4/5) • Consumer  Financial  Data • The  information  being  recorded  on  consumers  from  their  many  different  financial  accounts  (e.g.,   checking,  savings,  investment,  mortgage,  credit  card,  auto  loan,  student  loan,  etc.)  can  be  a  valuable   asset. • Such  information  matters  as  much  or  more  to  their  financial  situations  than  the  dollars  they  actually   have  in  their  accounts  at  any  given  time. • Request  for  Information  issued  in  November  2016  inquiring  about  the  challenges  consumers  face  in   accessing,  using,  and  securely  sharing  their  financial  records. • Concerned  about  reports  that  some  institutions  may  be  limiting  or  restricting  access  unduly. Ralph  Daloisio 65
  • 66. Richard  Cordray,  Director,  CFPB (5/5) • Alternative  Data • CFPB  estimates  that  26  million  Americans  are  “credit  invisible”  (no  credit  history) • CFPB  estimates  that  another  19  million  Americans  have  credit  histories  that  are  too  limited  or  have   been  inactive  for  too  long  to  generate  a  reliable  credit  score • So,  45  million  Americans  are  credit-­‐removed.  For  them,  in  comparison  to  the  credit-­‐connected  (~190   million),  financing  their  lives  is  riskier,  takes  longer,  costs  more,  and  does  not  help  their  financial  futures   as  much. • Adding  alternative  data  may  make  it  possible  to  open  up  more  affordable  and  accessible  forms  of  credit   for  millions  of  additional  consumers. • February  2017  Request  for  Information • Alternative  data  available  today,  and  the  advantages  and  disadvantages  in  using  it • Alternative  data  and  technologies  of  the  future • Main  topics  of  inquiry: 1. Can  alternative  data  help  lenders  better  assess  creditworthiness  and  open  access  to  the  credit-­‐removed? 2. Will  this  lead  to  more  complex  lending  decisions  for  consumers  and  industry? 3. How  will  the  costs  and  services  in  making  credit  decisions  be  impacted? 4. Is  alternative  data  error  prone,  and  how  difficult  will  it  be  for  consumers  to  identify  and  correct  the  errors? 5. How  might  the  use  of  alternative  data  violate  fair  lending  laws  or  create  other  risks  for  vulnerable  consumers? Ralph  Daloisio 66
  • 67. Peter  Renton,  Chairman  &  Co-­‐Founder,  LendIt (1/5) • Profitability  is  now  the  focus • Banks  are  going  to  become  ever  more  important  to  the  development  of  this  industry • There  were  262  entries  for  LendIt’s  PitchIt.    NovaCredit won. • US  Platforms  thinking  of  raising  $  should  be  in  China.    China’s  influence  is  growing. • Biggest  US  stories  in  2016 • Lending  Club  challenges • OCC  Fintech  Charter • Goldman  Sachs  launches  Marcus • The  first  lending  platform  failures • Securitization  market  grows • Industry  associations  get  some  traction Ralph  Daloisio 67
  • 68. Peter  Renton,  Chairman  &  Co-­‐Founder,  LendIt (2/5) Ralph  Daloisio 68
  • 69. Peter  Renton,  Chairman  &  Co-­‐Founder,  LendIt (3/5) Ralph  Daloisio 69
  • 70. Peter  Renton,  Chairman  &  Co-­‐Founder,  LendIt (4/5) Ralph  Daloisio 70
  • 71. Peter  Renton,  Chairman  &  Co-­‐Founder,  LendIt (5/5) Ralph  Daloisio 71
  • 72. Jackie  Reses,  Lead,  Square  Capital • Vast  majority  of  the  very  small  businesses  in  the  US  want  loans  <$500,000  while  lenders’  minimum  is  $1,000,000.   • Documentation  is  too  complex  and  demanding  for  these  types  of  borrowers  (28  million  in  the  USA).     • With  2.1  million  merchants  on  the  Square  dashboard,  offers  are  displayed  and  within  3  clicks  and  within  24  hours  the  small   business  can  get  the  capital  it  needs  over  the  time  it  needs  it. • Repayment  can  occur  through  daily  card  sales  which  matches  their  cash  inflow  to  their  debt  service  burden.   • $120B  estimated  in  pent  up  demand  for  small  business  loans  vs  maybe  $15  billion  outstanding  in  all  of  US  Fintech.     • Small  businesses  really  need  outsourced  services  for  credit  and  management.     • Square  earns  the  trust  of  their  merchants  from  the  very  beginning,  since  they  commence  the  relationship  with  merchant   card  services.    Shows  simple  and  transparent  figures  for  borrowings  that  foster  trust.     • In  2016  switched  MCA  product  to  a  loan.    Sellers  wanted  to  prepay  their  MCA  but  could  not  due  to  the  “product  design.”     • Feels  the  entire  industry  has  only  just  started.    Loans  have  been  around  for  hundreds  of  years  and  capital  fungibility is   high.    Speed,  Transparency,  and  Flexibility  have  only  recently  become  features  of  the  commoditized  product  of  lending.     • Rates  to  rise  due  to  GDP,  Employment,  Inflation…  but  Square  has  not  had  to  raise  rates  and  expects  overtime  its  cost  of   capital  will  decline  as  it  scales.    Small  business  is  less  yield  sensitive  in  the  economy.    [No  wonder.    APRs  are  huge.] Ralph  Daloisio 72
  • 73. NovaCredit,  Winner  of  PitchIt 2017 • 1st Place  in  a  field  of  262  entries. • Took  1st in  both the  Company  Demo  Category  AND  the  Audience  Demo  Category • Arose  to  address  a  market  need:  individual  credit  profiles  did  not  follow  the  individuals  as  they  relocated   around  the  globe.     • Local  lenders  could  not  or  did  not  want  to  lend  money  to  their  customer  in  a  foreign  jurisdiction  and   currency,  while  local  lenders  had  no  access  to  credit  bureau  information  for  use  in  making  local  lending   decisions. • “Globetrotters”  were  “credit  paralyzed”. • NovaCredit converts  localized,  immobile  systems  of  credit-­‐grading  individuals  into  a  global,  mobile  system. • NovaCredit is  building  a  cross  border  credit  bureau.     • NovaCredit’s Passport  is  their  answer  to  assembling  data  from  multiple  credit  bureaus  around  the  world.     • Interacting  with  200  bureaus  around  the  world  now.     • NovaCredit has  emerged  as  the  “Switzerland”  of  credit  bureaus.     • Fully  reciprocal  system  allows  positive  and  negative  information  to  be  reported  cross  border. Ralph  Daloisio 73
  • 74. Matt  Burton,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Orchard (1/5) • Reading  headlines  from  last  year  gave  a  misleading  indication  that  the  industry  was  dying.     • Companies  are  ready  to  scale  now.    They  feel  they  have  the  underwriting  down,  the  people  in  place,  and  need  to   scale  to  profitability.     • 2014  was  the  emergence  of  the  asset  class.    2015  was  the  hype.    2016  was  the  bump  in  the  road.   • Believes  retail,  whole  loan  sales,  bank  participations,  and  securitization  will  grow,  especially  the  latter. • Build,  buy,  or  partner.    Partner  is  the  cheapest  and  lowest  risk  approach.     • Still  just  the  beginning  of  a  real  shift  because  consumer  attitudes  and  behaviors  are  changing.     • The  industry  needs  more  bank  investors,  SWFs,  pension,  and  insurance  cos.    Credit  product  by  user-­‐type  (dentist,   restaurant,  etc)  is  driving  customization. • Cumulative  platform  loan  originations  through  2016  >  $40  billion  (~$8  billion  small  business  and  ~$32  billion   consumer) • Cumulative  securitizations  of  marketplace  loans  through  2016  >  $11  billion • There  are  now  >  500  participants  in  the  U.S.  marketplace  lending  industry • New  assets  classes  are  creating  new  investment  opportunities • Online  lending  is  expected  to  grow  from  $40  billion  today  to  $1  trillion  by  2020.    [Buckle  up?!] Ralph  Daloisio 74
  • 75. Matt  Burton,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Orchard (2/5) Ralph  Daloisio 75
  • 76. Matt  Burton,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Orchard (3/5) Ralph  Daloisio 76
  • 77. Matt  Burton,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Orchard (4/5) Ralph  Daloisio 77
  • 78. Matt  Burton,  CEO  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Orchard (5/5) Ralph  Daloisio 78
  • 79. Multiple  Participants,  Where  is  Alternative  Financing  Heading? (1/4) David  Klein,  CEO,  CommonBond:     • Very  excited  about  their  “401(k)”-­‐like  product  that  allows  employers  to  make  payments  on  student  loans • 2  to  4  securitizations  a  year  at  AA  ratings • 50/50  split  between  securitization  and  whole  loan  sales • Structuring  forward  flow  agreements  with  banks  willing  to  accept  lower  returns  than  LP  investors.    Banks   will  buy  4%  to  7%  yielding  assets.     • 3  Cs.     • Capital.    What  are  the  long-­‐term  sustainable  sources  of  capital  outside  of  banks?   • Credit.  The  industry  has  not  gone  through  a  credit  cycle.    How  will  Alt  Credit  perform  relative  to  traditional  credit?     • Customer.    How  to  keep  customer  acquisition  costs  low  over  time.    This  answer  gets  into  brand.    How  to  move  from   a  silo  to  a  re-­‐bundling  that  keeps  customer  acquisition  costs  down.    [Strategy  will  be  customer  retention,  and   expanded  product  offerings  as  the  customer’s  financial  life  broadens  and  deepens.] • Buckets  of  risk:    Credit,  Market,  Liquidity,  Political,  Regulatory,  Operational.    Can  control  operational  risk   well.    Capital  and  liquidity  risk  management  limited  by  available  risk  mitigants and  their  costs.    Common   Bond  is  looking  forward  to  prove  out  their  sustainability  during  a  downturn,  as  this  proof  would  drive  down   their  capital  costs  because  it  will  cause  big  players  with  marginal  investment  in  them  to  invest  larger  sums.     • Goals  are  to  sure  up  the  capital  base,  keep  credit  incredibly  strong,  and  lower  customer  acquisition  costs. Ralph  Daloisio 79
  • 80. Brendan  Carroll,  Senior  Partner  &  Co-­‐Founder,  Victory  Park  Capital • 37  deals  since  inception.  $4B  invested  in  debt  and  equity. • Equity  investor  in  Common  Bond.     • Industry  has  evolved  during  a  benign  credit  period.     • Whole  loan  sales  are  uncommitted  and  buyers  can  walk.     • Contractual  balance  sheet  facility  obliges  lender  to  lend.     • Their  investors  are  institutional  and  require  higher  returns  than  being  generated  by  the  originated  assets.     • Individual  states  control  consumer  rate  laws,  not  the  Federal  government.    If  CFPB  is  defanged,  state  laws  may  increase  to   fill  the  gap.     • Large  corporates  with  large  installed  customer  base  reluctant  to  lend  to  them  because  of  regulatory  uncertainty  and   strategy  shift.     • There  will  be  more  businesses  folding  than  starting.    If  VCs  stop  funding  unprofitable  companies,  they  will  have  no   alternatives.     • Half  the  country  as  defined  by  a  FICO  score  will  not  get  a  loan  from  a  bank.    LendUP and  others  like  them  have  better   options  than  PAYDAY  loans.    No  question  that  there  is  demand  for  the  product  but  lack  of  regulatory  clarity  is  chilling  that   market.    [Are  loan  options  “predatory”  or  necessary  and  constructive?    Where  to  draw  the  line?] • 30%  of  their  volume  is  outside  the  US.    Looks  for  businesses  with  the  right  governance,  platform,  and  board.    Even  if   achieved,  the  currency  risk  is  great  for  VPC  to  have  full  confidence  around  this.    Looking  for  ways  to  eliminate  that  risk.     • Lower  our  own  cost  of  capital  to  get  our  businesses  to  grow.    Will  continue  to  look  outside  the  US.     Ralph  Daloisio 80 Multiple  Participants,  Where  is  Alternative  Financing  Heading? (2/4)
  • 81. Gilles  Gade,  Founder,  CEO  &  Chairman,  Cross  River  Bank • 18  Platform  engagements.     • In  the  business  of  risk  management,  not  risk  elimination.     • Buy  a  bank,  take  a  limited  OCC  charter,  or  partner  with  a  bank  to  solve  challenges.    “Bank  in  a   Box.”     • Industry  missing  regulatory  clarity.    Examiners  have  their  own  interpretations  as  different   examiners  can  see  the  same  items  but  reach  different  conclusions.     • No  agreement  among  regulators  on  how  to  best  address  the  unbanked  and  underbanked.    Same   fractured  dialogue  around  financial  inclusion.     • Payments  a  big  theme.    The  ability  to  make  cross-­‐border  payments  quickly  and  efficiently  is  not   available.    Western  Union  and  others  overcharging  for  this  service.    Further  improvements  in   payments  on  the  horizon  over  the  next  three  years.    The  regulatory  framework  (AML)  on   payments  is  a  lot  clearer  than  it  is  on  consumer  lending.     • Refuse  the  status  quo.    We  are  serving  the  disruptors,  so  we  need  to  be  a  disruptor  ourselves.     Ralph  Daloisio 81 Multiple  Participants,  Where  is  Alternative  Financing  Heading? (3/4)
  • 82. Raul  Vasquez,  CEO,  Oportun • 10  years  lending  $3  billion  to  thin  file  borrowers.     • Big  risk  is  if  consumers  get  hurt  by  alternative  lending.     • Expects  consolidation  in  the  industry  as  companies  struggle  to  deliver  sustainable  business   models.    What  will  be  their  unique  value  proposition  instead  of  feeding  at  the  same  trough?     • Entering  a  time  when  there  will  be  higher  degrees  of  income  and  expense  volatility  in  the   employment  world  (eg,  chatbots,  autonomy,  etc.)     • Recession  will  be  a  big  challenge,  especially  with  the  country  divided  as  it  is.     • Billions  of  people  underserved  globally.    Talla,  Branch,  and  other  companies  like  those  are   exciting  to  them.     • 232  physical  locations  across  6  states,  which  is  ironic,  but  their  customers  are  comfortable  in   cash.    “We  were  profitable  first,  scalable  first,  and  now  we  are  moving  into  mobile.” Ralph  Daloisio 82 Multiple  Participants,  Where  is  Alternative  Financing  Heading? (4/4)