This document provides an analysis of the Indian credit landscape and various retail lending segments including personal loans, credit cards, two-wheelers, and consumer durables. Some key points:
- The retail lending segment saw the highest growth rates for originations over the past year at 39% growth, driven by increased digital lending.
- Within retail lending, personal loans are growing the fastest at over 50% CAGR for originations, followed by consumer durables.
- The average ticket sizes for personal loans and two-wheelers have decreased in recent years, indicating greater penetration for smaller-value loans.
- Credit card penetration remains low in India at 5% compared to other countries, representing significant
2. INTRODUCTION
Indian Credit Landscape
14%
85
Portfolio as of
March’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
Mar’21 to Mar’22)
Originations Value
FY’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
FY21 to FY22
23%
42
9%
86
Portfolio as of
March’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
Mar’21 to Mar’22)
Originations Value
FY’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
FY21 to FY22
73%
67
10%
3
Portfolio as of
March’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
Mar’21 to Mar’22)
Originations Value
FY’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
FY21 to FY22
23%
2
Notes:
1. Portfolio Outstanding refers to the current outstanding balance of the loan account, unless otherwise mentioned.
2. Originations Value refers to the total sanctioned amount of all new loans.
The retail has the highest growth rate for # originations
The commercial segment is growing more than twice the retail segment but with decline in number of originations
Evidently the retail segment growing due increased reach and penetration provided by digital lending channels
3. Retail Credit- Major Segments
Market Size & Growth Rates
Portfolio
Outstanding
Mar’22( Lakh Cr)
Originations
Value
5 Year CAGR
Average
Ticket Sze
FY’22
25.5 4.7 6.2
6% 2% 1.6%
30.6
Lakhs
3.7
Lakhs
6.7
Lakhs
7.9
19.4%
83 k
0.8
4.3%
74 k
0.4
14.5%
21 k
1.8
8%
N/A
Notes:
1. Origination value and Average Ticket Size don’t apply to credits cards as it represents a line of credit service (limited to an amount) without any fixed sanctioned value.
2. “Origination value 5-year CAGR” for a credit card substituted with “# originations 5-year CAGR”.
Personal Loan segment is growing the fastest followed by Consumer Durable segment.
Average spend for Personal Loans, Two-Wheeler and Consumer Durable segment assuming a 12-month EMI is
similar to yearly credit card spend
4. Retail Credit- Target Segments
Personal Loan Market Analysis
The average ticket size in
2022 has reduced to one
third of what it was in 2018.
Credit penetration into new to
credit lower income group
underserved consumers with
corresponding increase in mix
smaller loans.
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
5. Retail Credit- Target Segments
Two-Wheeler Market Analysis
The average ticket size has
increased by almost 40%.
The # originations has gone
down due lower demand
because of higher 2-wheeler
prices.
The mix of loans less than
50k has reduced from 63%
to merely 10%
Two-Wheeler segment is not
a target segment but can act
as a preferred distribution
channel for co-branded
cards
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
6. Retail Credit- Target Segments
Consumer Durables Market Analysis
The average ticket size has
remained constant.
Both # originations and
originations value has gone
up by 14%
Dominated by NBFCs
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
7. Retail Credit- Target Segments
Credit Card Market Analysis
India is structurally very different in its credit
card penetration relative to smartphone
penetration.
Recent financial reforms to formalize the
economy puts credit card sales to skyrocket
in the coming years
The growth trajectory was hit by economic
headwinds but now has started to recover.
# Originations (Lakhs)
Population Smartphone
Penetration
Credit Card
penetration
United States 338 M 82% 67%
China 1.4 B 68% 38%
Japan 124 M 79% 70%
Germany 83 M 82% 57%
India 1.4 B 47% 5%
United Kingdom 67 M 82% 62%
8. Retail Credit- Target Segments
Credit Card Market Analysis
However, 80% of the credit card
base is concentrated with the top-
six issuers in the country
So the market is highly consolidated
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
Share of New Card Originations of Private Banks increased
from 61.2% in FY21 to 71.4% in FY22
In the last three years, three banks have entered the credit
card space as issuers
9. Retail Credit- Target Segments
Consumer Trends
New players and digital lenders coming into the s[pace with own prop CIBIL free underwriting models to penetrate the underserved, young,
non metro low-income group segments
Dedicated mobile
applications for credit cards,
that facilitate end-to-end
customer services, is a
pressing priority
Consumer transparency to
show a clean bifurcation of all
fees and charges
Introduction of competing
services like “Buy Now Pay
Later”
Evolving credit card model
with Co-branded partnership
model and Bin Sharing model
RBI permitting NBFCs with net worth of INR 100 crore to start a credit business with intensify competition in the credit space
Paperless loan with no CIBIL
loans for first time credit
seekers
64.5% of loans provided to
New to Credit (NTC)
61.3% of are less than 35
years old.
10. Retail Lending Segments
Market Positioning
Personal
Home
Business
Auto
Credit Card
Consumer
Durable
Two-Wheeler
5 Yr. CAGR # Originations
Segment
Portfolio
Outstanding
5 Year CAGR
# Originations
5 Year CAGR
Originations
Value
Home Loans 25.5 1.7% 6.0%
Personal Loans 7.9 50.5% 19.4%
Business Loans 6.2 6.5% -1.6%
Auto Loans 4.7 -2.4% 2.0%
Credit Cards 1.8 8.0% 5.0%
Two wheeler Loans 0.8 -2.8% 4.3%
Consumer Durable Loans 0.4 14.0% 14.5%
5
Yr.
CAGR
Originations
Value
2-wheeler & Consumer
durables provide the
richest source to NTC
and Young consumers
with high LTV presently
dominated by NBFCs
11. Retail Lending
Competitive Positioning
Penetrate tier 2 and tier 3
cities with small low-cost
branches
Use new underwriting models
to lend to risk score and lend
without CIBIL and charge of
LTV of consumers
Leave collections to the
agencies
High-cost branches Deep presence through
low-cost branches
Originations through digital
channels only
Origination
Preference for safer risk
free consumers
Willing to underwrite
riskier consumers
Evolving underwriting
models with more focus on
non-conventional data for
risk scoring
Underwriting
Preference for salaried
individuals with monthly
income of 20k & above
Salaried professional and
self employed with lower
income compared to banks
Low-income salaried
professionals and small
business owners
Consumers
Collections Outsourced to an Agency Own an on-ground
collections team
No collections expertise yet
Penetrate the low-income
group first time young credit
seekers with no credit history
12. Credit Card
Go To Market
Product
Launch
Distribution
Channels Marketing &
Sales
Launch at and women's
leadership summit
TOP of the Funnel
Traditional Marketing channels like
Traffic Banners, Malls & Brand Outlets
Landing page for paid media
ADs.
MIDDLE of the Funnel
Influencer Marketing
Women influencers in relevant fields for
Co-branded cards
BOTTOM of the Funnell
CPC Ads on Social Media & Google
CPM ads on YouTube
Reactive Cold Calling for
engaged unconverted landing
page and website visitors
Events
Title sponsors for different event
celebrating women
Landing page for direct organic
traffic through SEO.
Launch different Co-branded
cards at educational, sporting
and fashion and other relevant
events.
Sales Reps at partner 2-wheeler
showrooms and other partner
brands
13. Women Entrepreneurs, Salaried
Professionals and Self-Employed.
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Retail Lending Segments
Positioning and Pitch
Age Group 20
to 40
Income Group
15k to 50k
Tier 2
Tier 3 Cities
100%
Transparent
Flexible EMIs
Proprietary
Credit Model
Hasslefree
Paperless