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Business Case
INTRODUCTION
Indian Credit Landscape
14%
85
Portfolio as of
March’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
Mar’21 to Mar’22)
Originations Value
FY’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
FY21 to FY22
23%
42
9%
86
Portfolio as of
March’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
Mar’21 to Mar’22)
Originations Value
FY’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
FY21 to FY22
73%
67
10%
3
Portfolio as of
March’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
Mar’21 to Mar’22)
Originations Value
FY’22 (Lakh Cr)
Growth %
FY21 to FY22
23%
2
Notes:
1. Portfolio Outstanding refers to the current outstanding balance of the loan account, unless otherwise mentioned.
2. Originations Value refers to the total sanctioned amount of all new loans.
The retail has the highest growth rate for # originations
The commercial segment is growing more than twice the retail segment but with decline in number of originations
Evidently the retail segment growing due increased reach and penetration provided by digital lending channels
Retail Credit- Major Segments
Market Size & Growth Rates
Portfolio
Outstanding
Mar’22( Lakh Cr)
Originations
Value
5 Year CAGR
Average
Ticket Sze
FY’22
25.5 4.7 6.2
6% 2% 1.6%
30.6
Lakhs
3.7
Lakhs
6.7
Lakhs
7.9
19.4%
83 k
0.8
4.3%
74 k
0.4
14.5%
21 k
1.8
8%
N/A
Notes:
1. Origination value and Average Ticket Size don’t apply to credits cards as it represents a line of credit service (limited to an amount) without any fixed sanctioned value.
2. “Origination value 5-year CAGR” for a credit card substituted with “# originations 5-year CAGR”.
Personal Loan segment is growing the fastest followed by Consumer Durable segment.
Average spend for Personal Loans, Two-Wheeler and Consumer Durable segment assuming a 12-month EMI is
similar to yearly credit card spend
Retail Credit- Target Segments
Personal Loan Market Analysis
The average ticket size in
2022 has reduced to one
third of what it was in 2018.
Credit penetration into new to
credit lower income group
underserved consumers with
corresponding increase in mix
smaller loans.
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
Retail Credit- Target Segments
Two-Wheeler Market Analysis
The average ticket size has
increased by almost 40%.
The # originations has gone
down due lower demand
because of higher 2-wheeler
prices.
The mix of loans less than
50k has reduced from 63%
to merely 10%
Two-Wheeler segment is not
a target segment but can act
as a preferred distribution
channel for co-branded
cards
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
Retail Credit- Target Segments
Consumer Durables Market Analysis
The average ticket size has
remained constant.
Both # originations and
originations value has gone
up by 14%
Dominated by NBFCs
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
Retail Credit- Target Segments
Credit Card Market Analysis
India is structurally very different in its credit
card penetration relative to smartphone
penetration.
Recent financial reforms to formalize the
economy puts credit card sales to skyrocket
in the coming years
The growth trajectory was hit by economic
headwinds but now has started to recover.
# Originations (Lakhs)
Population Smartphone
Penetration
Credit Card
penetration
United States 338 M 82% 67%
China 1.4 B 68% 38%
Japan 124 M 79% 70%
Germany 83 M 82% 57%
India 1.4 B 47% 5%
United Kingdom 67 M 82% 62%
Retail Credit- Target Segments
Credit Card Market Analysis
However, 80% of the credit card
base is concentrated with the top-
six issuers in the country
So the market is highly consolidated
Notes:
Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
Share of New Card Originations of Private Banks increased
from 61.2% in FY21 to 71.4% in FY22
In the last three years, three banks have entered the credit
card space as issuers
Retail Credit- Target Segments
Consumer Trends
New players and digital lenders coming into the s[pace with own prop CIBIL free underwriting models to penetrate the underserved, young,
non metro low-income group segments
Dedicated mobile
applications for credit cards,
that facilitate end-to-end
customer services, is a
pressing priority
Consumer transparency to
show a clean bifurcation of all
fees and charges
Introduction of competing
services like “Buy Now Pay
Later”
Evolving credit card model
with Co-branded partnership
model and Bin Sharing model
RBI permitting NBFCs with net worth of INR 100 crore to start a credit business with intensify competition in the credit space
Paperless loan with no CIBIL
loans for first time credit
seekers
64.5% of loans provided to
New to Credit (NTC)
61.3% of are less than 35
years old.
Retail Lending Segments
Market Positioning
Personal
Home
Business
Auto
Credit Card
Consumer
Durable
Two-Wheeler
5 Yr. CAGR # Originations
Segment
Portfolio
Outstanding
5 Year CAGR
# Originations
5 Year CAGR
Originations
Value
Home Loans 25.5 1.7% 6.0%
Personal Loans 7.9 50.5% 19.4%
Business Loans 6.2 6.5% -1.6%
Auto Loans 4.7 -2.4% 2.0%
Credit Cards 1.8 8.0% 5.0%
Two wheeler Loans 0.8 -2.8% 4.3%
Consumer Durable Loans 0.4 14.0% 14.5%
5
Yr.
CAGR
Originations
Value
2-wheeler & Consumer
durables provide the
richest source to NTC
and Young consumers
with high LTV presently
dominated by NBFCs
Retail Lending
Competitive Positioning
Penetrate tier 2 and tier 3
cities with small low-cost
branches
Use new underwriting models
to lend to risk score and lend
without CIBIL and charge of
LTV of consumers
Leave collections to the
agencies
High-cost branches Deep presence through
low-cost branches
Originations through digital
channels only
Origination
Preference for safer risk
free consumers
Willing to underwrite
riskier consumers
Evolving underwriting
models with more focus on
non-conventional data for
risk scoring
Underwriting
Preference for salaried
individuals with monthly
income of 20k & above
Salaried professional and
self employed with lower
income compared to banks
Low-income salaried
professionals and small
business owners
Consumers
Collections Outsourced to an Agency Own an on-ground
collections team
No collections expertise yet
Penetrate the low-income
group first time young credit
seekers with no credit history
Credit Card
Go To Market
Product
Launch
Distribution
Channels Marketing &
Sales
Launch at and women's
leadership summit
TOP of the Funnel
Traditional Marketing channels like
Traffic Banners, Malls & Brand Outlets
Landing page for paid media
ADs.
MIDDLE of the Funnel
Influencer Marketing
Women influencers in relevant fields for
Co-branded cards
BOTTOM of the Funnell
CPC Ads on Social Media & Google
CPM ads on YouTube
Reactive Cold Calling for
engaged unconverted landing
page and website visitors
Events
Title sponsors for different event
celebrating women
Landing page for direct organic
traffic through SEO.
Launch different Co-branded
cards at educational, sporting
and fashion and other relevant
events.
Sales Reps at partner 2-wheeler
showrooms and other partner
brands
Women Entrepreneurs, Salaried
Professionals and Self-Employed.
Don’t let the source of inspiration come
in the way of your financial freedom.
Our credit cards offers a convenient and
empowering solution to manage their
finances.
With exclusive co-branded benefits and
rewards tailored to their lifestyle, our
credit card helps women take control of
their spending.
Retail Lending Segments
Positioning and Pitch
Age Group 20
to 40
Income Group
15k to 50k
Tier 2
Tier 3 Cities
100%
Transparent
Flexible EMIs
Proprietary
Credit Model
Hasslefree
Paperless
Financial
Modelling
Financial Modelling
Framework
Revenue Expenses
Interest Income
Merchant Swipe Fee
Fee Income
Interest Expense
Bad Debt Expense
Customer Acquisition Cost
Sales Commission
Employee Cost
Financial Modelling
Assumptions
Assumption Value
Monthly Growth Rate
(New Cards Issued)
7.5%
Card Deactivation Rate 0.5%
Average Monthly Spend 4000
Annual Fee 500
Credit Card Utilization 26.0%
Interest Rate per Month
(Consumers)
1.5%
Average Pay 30.0%
Assumption Value
Interest Rate per Month
(Card Issuer)
0.5%
Net NPA 1.5%
Customer Acquisition Cost/Card
(Paid Media)
400
Sales Commission/Card 300
Fixed Salary/Employees/Month
Sales & Origination
5000
Fixed Salary/Employee/Month
Underwriting
10000
Revenue
Assumptions
Expense
Assumptions
Financial Modelling
Yearly Revenue, Expenses and Margin
116.2
Lakh
94.6
Lakh
19%
Revenue Expenses Pre-Tax Profit Margin
Financial Modelling
Mix Analysis
Revenue Segments as a % of
Total Revenue
Expense Segments as a % of
Total Revenue
Interest Rate
Hike
Scenario
Planning
Uncertainties
5k
30%
1%
28%
26%
Average Mth Spend
Net NPA
Card Utilization
4.5k
4k
1.25%
1.5%
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Interest Rate
Drop
Scenario Planning
Result Summary
100.5
26%
135.5
94.6
19%
116.2
88.8
10%
98.6
Revenue
( Lakh)
Expense
( Lakh)
Prfotability
( %)
Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 3
APPENDIX
Scenario Modelling Yearly Nos.
Market size (Lakh crores)
Originations
Value FY'21
# Originations
FY'21 (Lakhs)
Ending
March 21
Originations
Value FY'22
# Originations
FY'22 (Lakhs)
Ending
March 22
Originations
Value
YoY Growth
# Originations
YoY Growth
Portfolio YoY
Growth
Credit Market 74.7 2235.2 157.1 111.1 2947.7 174.4 49% 32% 11%
Retail 34.4 1668.4 75.0 42.3 2310.7 85.2 23% 39% 14%
Commercial 38.4 23.2 79.4 66.5 22.2 86.3 73% -4% 9%
Microfinance 1.9 543.6 2.6 2.3 614.8 2.9 23% 13% 10%
Market Research Details
YoY Growth
# Originations (Lakhs) FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22
FY'19 Vs
FY'18
FY'20 Vs
FY'19
FY'21 Vs
FY'20
FY'22 Vs
FY'21
5 Year
CAGR
Home Loans 22.1 21.9 21.0 20.0 24.0 -0.9% -4.1% -4.8% 20.0% 1.7%
Personal Loans 82.0 151.8 401.0 286.0 633.9 85.1% 164.2% -28.7% 121.6% 50.5%
Business Loans 34.3 38.4 33.5 6.2 47.1 12.0% -12.8% -81.5% 659.7% 6.5%
Auto Loans 34.6 35.4 35.7 28.2 30.6 2.3% 0.8% -21.0% 8.5% -2.4%
Credit Cards 108.6 135.3 157.6 107.9 159.9 24.6% 16.5% -31.5% 48.2% 8.0%
Two wheeler Loans 77.0 94.3 91.0 65.5 66.8 22.5% -3.5% -28.0% 2.0% -2.8%
Consumer Durable Loans 214.6 313.1 370.1 288.3 412.3 45.9% 18.2% -22.1% 43.0% 14.0%
YoY Growth
Originations Value
(Lakh Cr)
FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22
FY'19 Vs
FY'18
FY'20 Vs
FY'19
FY'21 Vs
FY'20
FY'22 Vs
FY'21
5 Year
CAGR
Home Loans 5.5 5.68 5.6 5.71 7.36 3.3% -1.4% 2.0% 28.9% 6.0%
Personal Loans 2.16 2.88 3.76 3.59 5.24 33.3% 30.6% -4.5% 46.0% 19.4%
Business Loans 1.88 1.89 1.94 1.57 1.73 0.5% 2.6% -19.1% 10.2% -1.6%
Auto Loans 1.85 1.9 1.79 1.65 2.04 2.7% -5.8% -7.8% 23.6% 2.0%
Credit Cards - - - - - - - - - -
Two wheeler Loans 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.46 0.50 31.0% 7.0% -19.5% 9.2% 4.3%
Consumer Durable Loans 0.44 0.63 0.72 0.53 0.88 42.1% 13.3% -26.3% 66.0% 14.5%
YoY Growth
Average Ticket Size
(Lakh)
FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22
FY'19 Vs
FY'18
FY'20 Vs
FY'19
FY'21 Vs
FY'20
FY'22 Vs
FY'21
5 Year
CAGR
Home Loans 24,88,688 25,93,607 26,66,667 28,55,000 30,66,667 4.2% 2.8% 7.1% 7.4% 4.3%
Personal Loans 2,63,415 1,89,723 93,766 1,25,524 82,663 -28.0% -50.6% 33.9% -34.1% -20.7%
Business Loans 5,48,105 4,92,188 5,79,104 25,32,258 3,67,304 -10.2% 17.7% 337.3% -85.5% -7.7%
Auto Loans 5,34,682 5,36,723 5,01,401 5,85,106 6,66,667 0.4% -6.6% 16.7% 13.9% 4.5%
Credit Cards - - - - - - - - - -
Two wheeler Loans 52,338 55,992 62,088 69,466 74,401 7.0% 10.9% 11.9% 7.1% 7.3%
Consumer Durable Loans 20,690 20,153 19,319 18,280 21,222 -2.6% -4.1% -5.4% 16.1% 0.5%
Scenario Modelling
Quarterly Details
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 FY 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 FY 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 FY 2025 3Year Total
11,050 57,468 1,30,374 2,25,964 4,24,857 4,26,881 5,95,191 8,03,666 10,62,732 28,88,469 13,83,001 17,79,266 22,69,761 28,77,977 83,10,006 1,16,23,332
1,86,909 2,26,433 2,91,161 3,54,547 10,59,049 4,46,282 5,42,491 6,73,225 8,61,646 25,23,643 10,32,068 12,79,739 15,82,961 19,84,311 58,79,078 94,61,771
-1,75,858 -1,68,965 -1,60,787 -1,28,583 -6,34,193 -19,400 52,700 1,30,441 2,01,086 3,64,826 3,50,933 4,99,528 6,86,800 8,93,667 24,30,928 21,61,561
-1591% -294% -123% -57% -149% -5% 9% 16% 19% 13% 25% 28% 30% 31% 29% 19%
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 FY 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 FY 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 FY 2025 3Year Total
13,155 68,414 1,55,207 2,69,005 5,05,782 4,92,859 6,89,704 9,33,554 12,36,395 33,52,511 16,10,811 20,74,079 26,47,572 33,58,735 96,91,198 1,35,49,490
1,87,977 2,30,383 2,99,403 3,68,331 10,86,094 4,67,019 5,71,867 7,13,304 9,14,968 26,67,158 11,01,770 13,69,713 16,98,058 21,30,570 63,00,111 1,00,53,362
-1,74,822 -1,61,968 -1,44,196 -99,326 -5,80,312 25,840 1,17,837 2,20,250 3,21,427 6,85,354 5,09,041 7,04,366 9,49,515 12,28,165 33,91,087 34,96,128
-1329% -237% -93% -37% -115% 5% 17% 24% 26% 20% 32% 34% 36% 37% 35% 26%
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 FY 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 FY 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 FY 2025 3Year Total
9,121 47,434 1,07,610 1,86,510 3,50,675 3,66,402 5,08,555 6,84,601 9,03,540 24,63,098 11,74,176 15,09,021 19,23,433 24,37,283 70,43,914 98,57,687
1,85,929 2,22,570 2,83,099 3,41,066 10,32,665 4,26,000 5,13,761 6,34,026 8,09,496 23,83,283 9,63,898 11,91,741 14,70,394 18,41,266 54,67,299 88,83,247
-1,76,809 -1,75,136 -1,75,489 -1,54,556 -6,81,990 -59,598 -5,206 50,575 94,044 79,815 2,10,278 3,17,280 4,53,039 5,96,017 15,76,614 9,74,440
-1939% -369% -163% -83% -194% -16% -1% 7% 10% 3% 18% 21% 24% 24% 22% 10%

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Credit Cards-Business Case.pdf

  • 2. INTRODUCTION Indian Credit Landscape 14% 85 Portfolio as of March’22 (Lakh Cr) Growth % Mar’21 to Mar’22) Originations Value FY’22 (Lakh Cr) Growth % FY21 to FY22 23% 42 9% 86 Portfolio as of March’22 (Lakh Cr) Growth % Mar’21 to Mar’22) Originations Value FY’22 (Lakh Cr) Growth % FY21 to FY22 73% 67 10% 3 Portfolio as of March’22 (Lakh Cr) Growth % Mar’21 to Mar’22) Originations Value FY’22 (Lakh Cr) Growth % FY21 to FY22 23% 2 Notes: 1. Portfolio Outstanding refers to the current outstanding balance of the loan account, unless otherwise mentioned. 2. Originations Value refers to the total sanctioned amount of all new loans. The retail has the highest growth rate for # originations The commercial segment is growing more than twice the retail segment but with decline in number of originations Evidently the retail segment growing due increased reach and penetration provided by digital lending channels
  • 3. Retail Credit- Major Segments Market Size & Growth Rates Portfolio Outstanding Mar’22( Lakh Cr) Originations Value 5 Year CAGR Average Ticket Sze FY’22 25.5 4.7 6.2 6% 2% 1.6% 30.6 Lakhs 3.7 Lakhs 6.7 Lakhs 7.9 19.4% 83 k 0.8 4.3% 74 k 0.4 14.5% 21 k 1.8 8% N/A Notes: 1. Origination value and Average Ticket Size don’t apply to credits cards as it represents a line of credit service (limited to an amount) without any fixed sanctioned value. 2. “Origination value 5-year CAGR” for a credit card substituted with “# originations 5-year CAGR”. Personal Loan segment is growing the fastest followed by Consumer Durable segment. Average spend for Personal Loans, Two-Wheeler and Consumer Durable segment assuming a 12-month EMI is similar to yearly credit card spend
  • 4. Retail Credit- Target Segments Personal Loan Market Analysis The average ticket size in 2022 has reduced to one third of what it was in 2018. Credit penetration into new to credit lower income group underserved consumers with corresponding increase in mix smaller loans. Notes: Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
  • 5. Retail Credit- Target Segments Two-Wheeler Market Analysis The average ticket size has increased by almost 40%. The # originations has gone down due lower demand because of higher 2-wheeler prices. The mix of loans less than 50k has reduced from 63% to merely 10% Two-Wheeler segment is not a target segment but can act as a preferred distribution channel for co-branded cards Notes: Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
  • 6. Retail Credit- Target Segments Consumer Durables Market Analysis The average ticket size has remained constant. Both # originations and originations value has gone up by 14% Dominated by NBFCs Notes: Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise
  • 7. Retail Credit- Target Segments Credit Card Market Analysis India is structurally very different in its credit card penetration relative to smartphone penetration. Recent financial reforms to formalize the economy puts credit card sales to skyrocket in the coming years The growth trajectory was hit by economic headwinds but now has started to recover. # Originations (Lakhs) Population Smartphone Penetration Credit Card penetration United States 338 M 82% 67% China 1.4 B 68% 38% Japan 124 M 79% 70% Germany 83 M 82% 57% India 1.4 B 47% 5% United Kingdom 67 M 82% 62%
  • 8. Retail Credit- Target Segments Credit Card Market Analysis However, 80% of the credit card base is concentrated with the top- six issuers in the country So the market is highly consolidated Notes: Market share by Portfolio Outstanding unless stated otherwise Share of New Card Originations of Private Banks increased from 61.2% in FY21 to 71.4% in FY22 In the last three years, three banks have entered the credit card space as issuers
  • 9. Retail Credit- Target Segments Consumer Trends New players and digital lenders coming into the s[pace with own prop CIBIL free underwriting models to penetrate the underserved, young, non metro low-income group segments Dedicated mobile applications for credit cards, that facilitate end-to-end customer services, is a pressing priority Consumer transparency to show a clean bifurcation of all fees and charges Introduction of competing services like “Buy Now Pay Later” Evolving credit card model with Co-branded partnership model and Bin Sharing model RBI permitting NBFCs with net worth of INR 100 crore to start a credit business with intensify competition in the credit space Paperless loan with no CIBIL loans for first time credit seekers 64.5% of loans provided to New to Credit (NTC) 61.3% of are less than 35 years old.
  • 10. Retail Lending Segments Market Positioning Personal Home Business Auto Credit Card Consumer Durable Two-Wheeler 5 Yr. CAGR # Originations Segment Portfolio Outstanding 5 Year CAGR # Originations 5 Year CAGR Originations Value Home Loans 25.5 1.7% 6.0% Personal Loans 7.9 50.5% 19.4% Business Loans 6.2 6.5% -1.6% Auto Loans 4.7 -2.4% 2.0% Credit Cards 1.8 8.0% 5.0% Two wheeler Loans 0.8 -2.8% 4.3% Consumer Durable Loans 0.4 14.0% 14.5% 5 Yr. CAGR Originations Value 2-wheeler & Consumer durables provide the richest source to NTC and Young consumers with high LTV presently dominated by NBFCs
  • 11. Retail Lending Competitive Positioning Penetrate tier 2 and tier 3 cities with small low-cost branches Use new underwriting models to lend to risk score and lend without CIBIL and charge of LTV of consumers Leave collections to the agencies High-cost branches Deep presence through low-cost branches Originations through digital channels only Origination Preference for safer risk free consumers Willing to underwrite riskier consumers Evolving underwriting models with more focus on non-conventional data for risk scoring Underwriting Preference for salaried individuals with monthly income of 20k & above Salaried professional and self employed with lower income compared to banks Low-income salaried professionals and small business owners Consumers Collections Outsourced to an Agency Own an on-ground collections team No collections expertise yet Penetrate the low-income group first time young credit seekers with no credit history
  • 12. Credit Card Go To Market Product Launch Distribution Channels Marketing & Sales Launch at and women's leadership summit TOP of the Funnel Traditional Marketing channels like Traffic Banners, Malls & Brand Outlets Landing page for paid media ADs. MIDDLE of the Funnel Influencer Marketing Women influencers in relevant fields for Co-branded cards BOTTOM of the Funnell CPC Ads on Social Media & Google CPM ads on YouTube Reactive Cold Calling for engaged unconverted landing page and website visitors Events Title sponsors for different event celebrating women Landing page for direct organic traffic through SEO. Launch different Co-branded cards at educational, sporting and fashion and other relevant events. Sales Reps at partner 2-wheeler showrooms and other partner brands
  • 13. Women Entrepreneurs, Salaried Professionals and Self-Employed. Don’t let the source of inspiration come in the way of your financial freedom. Our credit cards offers a convenient and empowering solution to manage their finances. With exclusive co-branded benefits and rewards tailored to their lifestyle, our credit card helps women take control of their spending. Retail Lending Segments Positioning and Pitch Age Group 20 to 40 Income Group 15k to 50k Tier 2 Tier 3 Cities 100% Transparent Flexible EMIs Proprietary Credit Model Hasslefree Paperless
  • 15. Financial Modelling Framework Revenue Expenses Interest Income Merchant Swipe Fee Fee Income Interest Expense Bad Debt Expense Customer Acquisition Cost Sales Commission Employee Cost
  • 16. Financial Modelling Assumptions Assumption Value Monthly Growth Rate (New Cards Issued) 7.5% Card Deactivation Rate 0.5% Average Monthly Spend 4000 Annual Fee 500 Credit Card Utilization 26.0% Interest Rate per Month (Consumers) 1.5% Average Pay 30.0% Assumption Value Interest Rate per Month (Card Issuer) 0.5% Net NPA 1.5% Customer Acquisition Cost/Card (Paid Media) 400 Sales Commission/Card 300 Fixed Salary/Employees/Month Sales & Origination 5000 Fixed Salary/Employee/Month Underwriting 10000 Revenue Assumptions Expense Assumptions
  • 17. Financial Modelling Yearly Revenue, Expenses and Margin 116.2 Lakh 94.6 Lakh 19% Revenue Expenses Pre-Tax Profit Margin
  • 18. Financial Modelling Mix Analysis Revenue Segments as a % of Total Revenue Expense Segments as a % of Total Revenue
  • 19. Interest Rate Hike Scenario Planning Uncertainties 5k 30% 1% 28% 26% Average Mth Spend Net NPA Card Utilization 4.5k 4k 1.25% 1.5% Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Interest Rate Drop
  • 20. Scenario Planning Result Summary 100.5 26% 135.5 94.6 19% 116.2 88.8 10% 98.6 Revenue ( Lakh) Expense ( Lakh) Prfotability ( %) Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 3
  • 22. Scenario Modelling Yearly Nos. Market size (Lakh crores) Originations Value FY'21 # Originations FY'21 (Lakhs) Ending March 21 Originations Value FY'22 # Originations FY'22 (Lakhs) Ending March 22 Originations Value YoY Growth # Originations YoY Growth Portfolio YoY Growth Credit Market 74.7 2235.2 157.1 111.1 2947.7 174.4 49% 32% 11% Retail 34.4 1668.4 75.0 42.3 2310.7 85.2 23% 39% 14% Commercial 38.4 23.2 79.4 66.5 22.2 86.3 73% -4% 9% Microfinance 1.9 543.6 2.6 2.3 614.8 2.9 23% 13% 10%
  • 23. Market Research Details YoY Growth # Originations (Lakhs) FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22 FY'19 Vs FY'18 FY'20 Vs FY'19 FY'21 Vs FY'20 FY'22 Vs FY'21 5 Year CAGR Home Loans 22.1 21.9 21.0 20.0 24.0 -0.9% -4.1% -4.8% 20.0% 1.7% Personal Loans 82.0 151.8 401.0 286.0 633.9 85.1% 164.2% -28.7% 121.6% 50.5% Business Loans 34.3 38.4 33.5 6.2 47.1 12.0% -12.8% -81.5% 659.7% 6.5% Auto Loans 34.6 35.4 35.7 28.2 30.6 2.3% 0.8% -21.0% 8.5% -2.4% Credit Cards 108.6 135.3 157.6 107.9 159.9 24.6% 16.5% -31.5% 48.2% 8.0% Two wheeler Loans 77.0 94.3 91.0 65.5 66.8 22.5% -3.5% -28.0% 2.0% -2.8% Consumer Durable Loans 214.6 313.1 370.1 288.3 412.3 45.9% 18.2% -22.1% 43.0% 14.0% YoY Growth Originations Value (Lakh Cr) FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22 FY'19 Vs FY'18 FY'20 Vs FY'19 FY'21 Vs FY'20 FY'22 Vs FY'21 5 Year CAGR Home Loans 5.5 5.68 5.6 5.71 7.36 3.3% -1.4% 2.0% 28.9% 6.0% Personal Loans 2.16 2.88 3.76 3.59 5.24 33.3% 30.6% -4.5% 46.0% 19.4% Business Loans 1.88 1.89 1.94 1.57 1.73 0.5% 2.6% -19.1% 10.2% -1.6% Auto Loans 1.85 1.9 1.79 1.65 2.04 2.7% -5.8% -7.8% 23.6% 2.0% Credit Cards - - - - - - - - - - Two wheeler Loans 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.46 0.50 31.0% 7.0% -19.5% 9.2% 4.3% Consumer Durable Loans 0.44 0.63 0.72 0.53 0.88 42.1% 13.3% -26.3% 66.0% 14.5% YoY Growth Average Ticket Size (Lakh) FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22 FY'19 Vs FY'18 FY'20 Vs FY'19 FY'21 Vs FY'20 FY'22 Vs FY'21 5 Year CAGR Home Loans 24,88,688 25,93,607 26,66,667 28,55,000 30,66,667 4.2% 2.8% 7.1% 7.4% 4.3% Personal Loans 2,63,415 1,89,723 93,766 1,25,524 82,663 -28.0% -50.6% 33.9% -34.1% -20.7% Business Loans 5,48,105 4,92,188 5,79,104 25,32,258 3,67,304 -10.2% 17.7% 337.3% -85.5% -7.7% Auto Loans 5,34,682 5,36,723 5,01,401 5,85,106 6,66,667 0.4% -6.6% 16.7% 13.9% 4.5% Credit Cards - - - - - - - - - - Two wheeler Loans 52,338 55,992 62,088 69,466 74,401 7.0% 10.9% 11.9% 7.1% 7.3% Consumer Durable Loans 20,690 20,153 19,319 18,280 21,222 -2.6% -4.1% -5.4% 16.1% 0.5%
  • 24. Scenario Modelling Quarterly Details 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 FY 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 FY 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 FY 2025 3Year Total 11,050 57,468 1,30,374 2,25,964 4,24,857 4,26,881 5,95,191 8,03,666 10,62,732 28,88,469 13,83,001 17,79,266 22,69,761 28,77,977 83,10,006 1,16,23,332 1,86,909 2,26,433 2,91,161 3,54,547 10,59,049 4,46,282 5,42,491 6,73,225 8,61,646 25,23,643 10,32,068 12,79,739 15,82,961 19,84,311 58,79,078 94,61,771 -1,75,858 -1,68,965 -1,60,787 -1,28,583 -6,34,193 -19,400 52,700 1,30,441 2,01,086 3,64,826 3,50,933 4,99,528 6,86,800 8,93,667 24,30,928 21,61,561 -1591% -294% -123% -57% -149% -5% 9% 16% 19% 13% 25% 28% 30% 31% 29% 19% 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 FY 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 FY 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 FY 2025 3Year Total 13,155 68,414 1,55,207 2,69,005 5,05,782 4,92,859 6,89,704 9,33,554 12,36,395 33,52,511 16,10,811 20,74,079 26,47,572 33,58,735 96,91,198 1,35,49,490 1,87,977 2,30,383 2,99,403 3,68,331 10,86,094 4,67,019 5,71,867 7,13,304 9,14,968 26,67,158 11,01,770 13,69,713 16,98,058 21,30,570 63,00,111 1,00,53,362 -1,74,822 -1,61,968 -1,44,196 -99,326 -5,80,312 25,840 1,17,837 2,20,250 3,21,427 6,85,354 5,09,041 7,04,366 9,49,515 12,28,165 33,91,087 34,96,128 -1329% -237% -93% -37% -115% 5% 17% 24% 26% 20% 32% 34% 36% 37% 35% 26% 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 FY 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 FY 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 FY 2025 3Year Total 9,121 47,434 1,07,610 1,86,510 3,50,675 3,66,402 5,08,555 6,84,601 9,03,540 24,63,098 11,74,176 15,09,021 19,23,433 24,37,283 70,43,914 98,57,687 1,85,929 2,22,570 2,83,099 3,41,066 10,32,665 4,26,000 5,13,761 6,34,026 8,09,496 23,83,283 9,63,898 11,91,741 14,70,394 18,41,266 54,67,299 88,83,247 -1,76,809 -1,75,136 -1,75,489 -1,54,556 -6,81,990 -59,598 -5,206 50,575 94,044 79,815 2,10,278 3,17,280 4,53,039 5,96,017 15,76,614 9,74,440 -1939% -369% -163% -83% -194% -16% -1% 7% 10% 3% 18% 21% 24% 24% 22% 10%