1. Despite gains in reducing mortality from adverse effects (AEs) in the UK, progress has not been achieved in the reduction of incidence from AEs between 1990 and 2013
2. A direct link between deprivation level & health loss from AEs in England & the English regions is apparent, though vary, between most deprived & least deprived
3. DEPRIVATION LEVEL MATTERS on outcomes from AEs.
Russian Call Girls Hyderabad Indira 9907093804 Independent Escort Service Hyd...
Adverse effects of medical treatment in the UK. Lunevicius R. Grand round, Liverpool, 14-9-16
1. ADVERSE EFFECTS OF MEDICAL
TREATMENT IN THE UK, 1990-2013:
levels, trends, patterns, and comparisons
Raimundas Lunevicius,
Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
Juanita A. Haagsma,
Erasmus University Medical Center, The Netherlands
University of Washington, USA
14th Sep 2016, Grand Rounds,
Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
1
2. Content
• Injury: definition & classification
• Knowledge on incidence & outcomes from AEs
• GBD interactive data visualisation tools
• The aim & two objectives
• Methods
• Results
• Conclusions, interpretations, take-home messages
• 25 minutes
• 47 slides
slides No. 22, 31 and 43 are the essence of this talk
Introduction 2
3. Injury definition: comprehensive & simplified
• Any damage to the human being body resulting from
acute exposure to thermal, mechanical, electrical, or
chemical energy or the absence of such essentials as
heat or oxygen
• Any damage to the human being body resulting from
acute exposure to external cause
Johns Hopkins University, 2008
Introduction 3
4. Classification
• Injuries
• Intentional and Unintentional
• Intentional:
• Suicide or attempt to commit suicide
• Homicide or attempt to commit homicide (man’s assault, Polonium-210, etc.)
• Unintentional injuries:
• Transport events
• Falls
• Poisoning: illicit drugs, alcohol,
• Drowning
• Fire & heat
• Frost
• Animal contact: bites
• Natural disasters: lightning, flood, earthquake, hurricane, tsunami..
• Adverse effects of medical treatment
Introduction 4
7. Knowledge on AEs: scanty
• Acute Care Trusts / England
• 10%: experience an AE
• 1/3 of AEs: moderate / severe disability or death
• 8%: case fatality rate
• Patient safety related incident data base
• less than 0.5% of incidents involved death
• No certainty
1. on trends, patterns in incidence & mortality over time
2. re a rank of the UK at the global level
3. about the relationship between deprivation level & health loss/AE
Introduction
Illingworth J, Is the NHS getting safer? 2015
Vincent C, BMJ, 2001
Neale G, JRSM, 2001
7
8. Global Burden of Disease study (GBD)
• Provides a standardised approach to address the problem
• Definition: GBD is a systematic, scientific enterprise to
measure epidemiological levels of and quantify the magnitude
of health loss from diseases, injuries, and risk factors by age,
gender, and geography for specific points in time.
• Interactive data visualisation tools & models / population level
• http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
• http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/england
• http://vizhub.healthdata.org/epi/
• http://vizhub.healthdata.org/cod/
• http://vizhub.healthdata.org/le/
Introduction 8
9. One aim & two objectives
To show whether the UK itself made progress in reducing
the burden of AEs over the period of 24 years - 1990-2013:
1. to provide levels, trends, patterns and comparisons of
incidence & mortality from AEs
• for the UK,
• four constituent countries of the UK,
• the 9 regions of England
2. to show how levels, trends and patterns generated from
estimates of deaths & DALYs from AEs depend on
socioeconomic deprivation level in England
Introduction 9
10. Data, metrics, time points
• Interactive data visualisation tools
• Epi Visualization http://vizhub.healthdata.org/epi/
• GBD Compare http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
• GBD Compare – Public Health England http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/england
• Incidence & mortality rates for the UK are age-standardised
• The ratio 1 – M/I is a proxy for survival rate
• Death & DALY rates for individuals of all ages: England
• Years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013
• Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland,
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Methods 10
11. Definition: DALY / Disability Adjusted Life Years
• A DALY is the summary measure of years of life lost (YLL)
due to premature mortality (i.e. total loss of health) and
years lived with disability (YLD) due to partial loss of
health
DALY = YLL + YLD
Life expectancy at birth – calculating DALY
Methods 11
13. Geographies
The UK was compared with 32 high-income countries:
• 4 Asia Pacific countries: Brunei, Japan, Singapore, South Korea
• 2 Australasia countries: Australia, New Zealand
• 2 North America countries: Canada, US
• 3 Southern Latin America countries: Argentina, Chile, Uruguay
• 21 Western Europe countries: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Israel,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and
Switzerland
Methods 13
14. Geographies:
division of England into 9 statistical regions
Methods
East of England
East Midlands
Greater London
North East
North West
South East
South West (historic)
West Midlands
Yorkshire & The
Humber
14
15. Estimated population size for the constituent countries of the UK
and the English regions in mid-1990 and mid-2013, at 30 June
OfficeforNationalStatistics,NationalRecordsofScotland,NorthernIrelandStatisticsandResearchAgency
Men Women Grand total
1990 2013 1990 2013 1990 2013
England
23,212,113
26,533,969
24,487,003
27,331,848
47,699,116
53,865,817
East
2,495,643
2,929,462
2,592,319
3,024,707
5,087,962
5,954,169
East Midlands
1,959,883
2,268,092
2,033,093
2,330,637
3,992,976
4,598,729
London
3,282,257
4,165,335
3,516,529
4,251,200
6,798,786
8,416,535
North East
1,252,760
1,278,454
1,331,560
1,332,027
2,584,320
2,610,481
North West
3,304,030
3,495,013
3,525,363
3,608,247
6,829,393
7,103,260
South East
3,703,280
4,323,690
3,894,777
4,468,936
7,598,057
8,792,626
South West
2,262,074
2,640,378
2,406,115
2,737,217
4,668,189
5,377,595
West Midlands
2,560,061
2,803,569
2,658,344
2,871,143
5,218,405
5,674,712
Yorkshire and
The Humber
2,392,125
2,629,976
2,528,903
2,707,734
4,921,028
5,337,710
Northern Ireland
777,884
897,145
817,711
932,580
1,595,595
1,829,725
Scotland
2,443,865
2,586,532
2,637,405
2,741,168
5,081,270
5,327,700
Wales
1,384,677
1,515,227
1,476,835
1,567,185
2,861,512
3,082,412
UK
27,818,538
31,532,873
29,418,954
32,572,781
57,237,493
64,105,654
Methods 15
16. Geography: 5 deprivation levels, England
• 32,844 neighborhoods / areas (LSOA) based on IMD, England
• Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2010 - 7 domains:
1. income (22.5% weighting)
2. employment (22.5%)
3. health & disability (13.5%)
4. education, skills & training (13.5%)
5. barriers to housing & services (9.3%)
6. living environment (9.3%)
7. crime (9.3%)
• Each region = 5 deprivation groups
• 5 deprivation groups × 9 regions = 45 deprivation areas
• 45 geographical areas = LEVELS OF DEPRIVATION 1 – 5
Methods 16
17. Methods: map of distribution of the IMD, 2015 (Department of Communities and Local Government)17
18. Estimates & arts
• The means with 95%UI for ASI & ASM for the UK & 32
countries
• The means with 95% UI for deaths, death & DALY rates per
100,000 individuals of all ages a year for England
• Percentage difference between 2 values at the same time
points
• Percentage change between 2 values at different points in time
• Graphs were created in Excel, transported to PDF and edited
using EPS software
Methods 18
19. Objective No. 1
• Incidence & mortality, 1990 - 2013
levels,
trends,
patterns
comparisons
• UK
• England, Scotland, Wales, N. Ireland
• the nine English regions
• 32 high-income countries
Results: 19
21. Incident cases with 95% UI ofAEs of medical treatment in the
UK in1990 and 2013, by gender and geographical region
Men Women
1990 2013 1990 2013
East of England 4363 (3993 - 4742) 5140 (4687 - 5566) 4489 (4148 - 4925) 5307 (4840 - 5747)
East Midlands 3422 (3136 - 3724) 3953 (3629 - 4309) 3538 (3253 - 3863) 4054 (3729 - 4428)
Greater London 5813 (5252 - 6236) 7401 (6665 - 7914) 6088 (5626 - 6681) 7346 (6802 - 8077)
North East 2183 (2004 - 2380) 2261 (2046 - 2429) 2293 (5641 - 6698) 2295 (2131 - 2531)
North West 5725 (5286 - 6278) 6119 (5592 - 6641) 6035 (5641 - 6698) 6285 (5773 - 6856)
South East 6404 (5925 - 7036) 7456 (6918 - 8215) 6839 (6232 - 7400) 7751 (7150 - 8491)
South West 3978 (3619 - 4297) 4674 (4225 - 5017) 4134 (3850 - 4572) 4766 (4380 - 5201)
West Midlands 4517 (4096 - 4864) 4926 (4486 - 5327) 4660 (4253 - 5051) 5030 (4593 - 5455)
Yorkshire and The
Humber 4195 (3827 - 4545) 4633 (4208 - 4997) 4358 (4046 - 4805) 4685 (4332 - 5145)
Northern Ireland 1368 (1245 - 1478) 1590 (1435 - 1705) 1412 (1308 - 1554) 1627 (1492 - 1772)
Scotland 4279 (3910 - 4643) 4553 (4138 - 4914) 4585 (4220 - 5011) 4856 (4386 - 5208)
Wales 2442 (2215 - 2631) 2655 (2424 - 2879) 2573 (2363 - 2806) 2733 (2507 - 2978)
UK 48690 (47292 - 50073) 55368 (53606 - 56759) 51006 (50012 - 52954) 56671 (55374 - 58631)
Results: Incidence 21
22. MeanASIR by geography, gender, and year:
175 and 176 in men, 173 and 174 in women
Results: Incidence 22
23. Mean ASIR by geography, gender & years 1990, 2013:
175 and 176 in men, 173 and 174 in women
Results: Incidence 23
24. SimilarASIRs with 95% UIs forAEs of medical treatment in 2013
(the US, Canada, & the Netherlands are exceptions)
Results: Incidence - comparisons and ranking of countries 24
25. Results: Incidence by age and gender
Trends from age-specific incidence rates for AEs of medical treatment per
100,000 individuals in 1990 and 2013, by gender, UK
25
26. Interim summary: incidence, 1990-2013
1. Varied minimally, UK
2. Significantly higher in the US, Canada, the Netherlands
3. Stability in incidence is a global phenomenon
Discussion: Incidence 26
28. Deathsand age-standardisedmortalityrates (ASMR)with 95% UI and percentagechangefromAEsof
medicaltreatment in men and women combinedin the UKin 1990 and 2013, by regionalgeography
of Englandand a constituentcountryof the UK
Deaths in 1990 Deaths in 2013 Percentage
change
ASDR per
100,000 in 1990
ASDR per
100,000 in 2013
Percentage
change
East 93.33
(64.4 to 112.2)
90.95
(69.15 to 133.58)
–2.6 1.26
(0.88 to 1.5)
0.82
(0.63 to 1.17)
–34.9
East Midlands 74.93
(54.19 to 92.79)
71.74
(54.59 to 103.59)
–4.3 1.33
(0.96 to 1.62)
0.89
(0.69 to 1.25)
–33.1
Greater London
124.51
(87.64 to 147.68)
89.91
(65.53 to 127.27)
–27.8 1.35
(0.96 to 1.58)
0.85
(0.65 to 1.25)
–37.0
North East
55.49
(39.75 to 67.27)
48.75
(36.55 to 70.6)
–12.1 1.55
(1.12 to 1.88)
1.05
(0.8 to 1.49)
–32.3
North West
135.44
(92.27 to 162.13)
108.48
(82.56 to 151.96)
–19.9 1.38
(0.97 to 1.63)
0.9
(0.7 to 1.25)
–34.8
South East
127.41
(86.63 to 151.06)
116.08
(86.99 to 166.58)
–8.9 1.08
(0.76 to 1.27)
0.72
(0.54 to 1.01)
–33.3
South West
79.91
(54.13 to 96.07)
75.44
(57.52 to 104.17)
–5.6 1
(0.69 to 1.18)
0.68
(0.53 to 0.93)
–32.0
West Midlands
105.9
(75.16 to 128.16)
100.56
(75.99 to 136.71)
–5.0 1.49
(1.07 to 1.8)
1.03
(0.79 to 1.41)
–30.9
Yorkshire and The
Humber
93.78
(64.17 to 112.18)
77.47
(60.92 to 116.4)
–17.4 1.32
(0.92 to 1.56)
0.86
(0.68 to 1.26)
–34.9
England 890.7
(644.41 to 999.76)
776.39
(645.07 to 1,045.15)
–12.7 1.28
(0.94 to 1.44)
0.85
(0.7 to 1.14)
–33.6
Northern Ireland
15.92
(12.31 to 20.04)
18.4
(14.18 to 24.46)
13.5 0.84
(0.65 to 1.05)
0.68
(0.53 to 0.91)
–19.1
Scotland
137.94
(108.35 to 174.1)
159.49
(105.54 to 194.22)
13.5 1.99
(1.56 to 2.48)
1.73
(1.18 to 2.1)
–13.7
Wales
53.61
(37.64 to 64.25)
49.46
(37.28 to 69.95)
–7.7 1.24
(0.88 to 1.47)
0.87
(0.68 to 1.19)
–29.8
UK
1,098.17
(805.99 to 1,236.6)
1,003.75
(815.75 to 1,302.58)
–8.6 1.33
(0.99 to 1.5)
0.92
(0.75 to 1.2)
–30.8
Results: Mortality 28
29. Variations in age-standardised mortality rates per 1,000,000 individuals fromAEs
of medical treatment by regional geography of the UK, gender, and year
datasortedindescendingorderformenfortheyear1990
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mortalityrateper1,000,000individuals
Men, 1990
Men, 2013
Women, 1990
Women, 2013
Results: Mortality 29
30. Decline in age-standardised mortality rates from adverse effects of medical
treatment for individuals of both sexes combined in 1990 and 2013
datasortedindescendingorderfortheyear2013
Results: Mortality 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mortalityrateper1,000,000individuals
1990
2013
31. Significant variations inAS-mortality rates (× 0.0001) fromAEs with 95% UI per
person in 2013, by gender and high-income country
estimatessortedbyascendingmortalityratesinmen
Results: Mortality comparisons 31
32. Pattern of age-specific mortality rates fromAEs by gender in 1990 and 2013, UK
-20
30
80
130
180
230
Mortalityrateper1,000,000individuals
Age
Men, 1990
Men, 2013
Women, 1990
Women, 2013
Results: Mortality by age and gender 32
33. Distribution of percentage differences from age-specific mortality fromAEs rates
in men and women with exponential trend-line, UK, 2013
NB! Mortality rates are higher in all age groups in men
Results: Mortality by age and gender 33
34. Interim summary: mortality,1990-2013
• The decline in mortality by 30.8%: indicates the progress
• Varied by the regional geography
• Disparities persist between North & South England,
Scotland and England
• The UK is performing worse 10-fold than Switzerland
• A factor of gender: men die more often than women
Results: Mortality 34
36. Variations in the ratio from the mortality rate (M) to incidence rate (I) expressed
as 1 - M/I, by geography of the UK and gender, 2013
datasortedindescendingorderforwomen
Results: 1 – M/I ratio by age and gender 36
0.984
0.986
0.988
0.99
0.992
0.994
0.996
0.998
1-M/Iratio
Females
Males
37. Variations in the ratio from mortality rate to incidence rate expressed as 1 – (M/I)
by high-income country and gender, in 2013;
datasortedindescendingorderforwomen
Results: 1 – M/I ratio by age and gender 37
0.955
0.96
0.965
0.97
0.975
0.98
0.985
0.99
0.995
1
Switzerland
Singapore
Finland
NewZealand
Norway
Brunei
Malta
Denmark
Netherlands
Sweden
Japan
Iceland
Canada
Italy
Andorra
Ireland
UK
Austria
Germany
SouthKorea
Cyprus
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Australia
Chile
Uruguay
Belgium
France
Argentina
Israel
1-(Mortality/Incidence)ratio
Females
Males
38. Interim summary: a factor of geography
• Scotland - highest burden from AEs / UK
• NE of England: highest burden from AEs / England
• Switzerland, Singapore & Finland: the best performing
Discussion: Survival 38
39. Objective No. 2
• An analogy between socioeconomic
deprivation level & loss of health from AEs
in England
• Metrics
• Number of deaths
• Death rates
• DALY rates
Results 39
40. Adistinct pattern of disproportional distributions of deaths fromAEs in 100% stacked
column chart for five levels of deprivation in England between 1990 and 2013.
Thenumbersofdeaths(asthemeans)displayedin30color-codedfractionsofthecolumns.Level1=mostdeprived,
Level3=moderatedeprived,Level5=leastdeprived
Results: Deaths from AEs 40
41. Death rates with 95% UIs fromAEs per 100,000 all age individuals of both genders
combined in England and the English regions in 1990 and 2013, by level 1 (most deprived)
and level 5 (least deprived)
1990 Percentage
difference
2013 Percentage
difference
Level 1
(most deprived)
Level 5
(least deprived)
Level 1
(most deprived)
Level 5
(least deprived)
England 2.27
(1.65 to 2.57)
1.22
(0.88 to 1.38)
60.17 1.54
(1.28 to 2.08)
1.17
(0.97 to 1.59)
27.31
East of England 1.99
(1.32 to 2.39)
1.16
(0.8 to 1.4)
52.7 2.08
(1.56 to 3.16)
0.95
(0.73 to 1.38)
74.59
East Midlands 2.23
(1.54 to 2.77)
1.16
(0.79 to 1.46)
63.13 1.97
(1.49 to 2.89)
1.28
(0.96 to 1.89)
42.46
Greater London 2.11
(1.52 to 2.49)
1.37
(0.93 to 1.63)
42.53 0.97
(0.74 to 1.39)
1.09
(0.81 to 1.65)
11.65
North East of
England
2.76
(1.98 to 3.36)
0.75
(0.53 to 0.95)
114.53 1.77
(1.33 to 2.53)
1.13
(0.86 to 1.61)
44.14
North West of
England
2.23
(1.49 to 2.65)
1.67
(1.08 to 2.08)
28.72 1.61
(1.23 to 2.3)
1.53
(1.15 to 2.14)
5.1
South East of
England
2.37
(1.63 to 2.83)
1.02
(0.69 to 1.22)
79.65 1.64
(1.23 to 2.28)
1
(0.75 to 1.39)
48.48
South West of
England
1.37
(1 to 1.61)
1.29
(0.87 to 1.55)
6.02 1.45
(1.11 to 1.99)
1.17
(0.89 to 1.62)
21.37
West Midlands 2.41
(1.73 to 2.95)
1.18
(0.85 to 1.51)
68.52 1.88
(1.4 to 2.5)
1.64
(1.22 to 2.28)
13.64
Yorkshire and The
Humber
2.4
(1.64 to 2.84)
1.61
(1.05 to 1.98)
39.4 1.39
(1.1 to 2.06)
1.32
(1.04 to 2)
5.17
Results: Deaths rates from AEs 41
42. Trends for all age death rates per 100,000 individuals of both genders combined
in England by deprivation level from 1990 to 2013.
Level1=mostdeprived,Level3=moderatedeprived,Level5=leastdeprived 27.31%
Results: Deaths rates from AEs 42
43. Inequalities in trends for DALYrates per 100,000 men and women of all ages in
England by deprivation level from 1990 to 2013
level1=mostdeprived,3=moderatedeprived,andlevel5=leastdeprived
Results: DALY rates from AEs 43
45. What this study adds
1. Despite gains in reducing mortality from AEs in the UK,
progress has not been achieved in the reduction of
incidence from AEs between 1990 and 2013
2. A direct link between deprivation level & health loss
from AEs in England & the English regions is apparent,
though vary, between most deprived & least deprived
3. DEPRIVATION LEVEL MATTERS on outcomes from AE
Conclusions 45
46. Incidence ofAEs remains the same, 1990-2013
Deprivation level matters
The take-home messages 46
47. Declarations & Acknowledgments
• Transparency declaration
• I affirm that the manuscript is an honest, accurate, and transparent account of the
study being reported
• Funding
• This study had no specific funding
• The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is sponsor of GBD project
• I would like to thank
• Mr Richard Ward, former Medical Director, Aintree, England
• Ms Julie Mcharron, Clinical Coding Auditor, Aintree, England
• Mr Paul Flynn, Divisional Governance, Aintree, England
• Ms Lynne Conde, General Surgery Department, Aintree, England
47
Thank you
Editor's Notes
Thank you for opportunity to present findings of our project entitled as …
I will provide a definition of injury and injury classification.
We will speak about current knowledge on incidence and outcomes from AEs in the UK
I will briefly overview GBD project; it’s interactive data visualisation tools, and the aim, objectives, methods and results of this study which we began 16 months ago.
Conclusions, interpretations, take-home messages are mandatory parts of every presentation.
It is 25-minute duration presentation developed on 47 slides.
I think that the slide No. 44 is the best as the essence of this quite hard talk is in there..
Injuries are classified into 2 major groups: intentional and unintentional.
Intentional injuries result from an attempt to commit suicide or homicide.
Unintentional injuries may follow as a consequence of transport events, falls, …..
To understand better the importance of AEs of medical treatment within the scale of unintentional injuries, we have to raise the following question:
What is a fraction of mortality from AEs within the range of unintentional injuries?
….......................................
(I would like to say in advance if the fraction of AEs would be significant, further clarifications regarding the levels, trends, and patterns over time would be of importance as current knowledge on AEs is scanty. Comparisons and ranking by geography are always useful to do not lose a sense of proportion)
This figure shows fractions of death rates in individuals of all ages from England, N. Ireland, Wales, and Scotland in 2013, by gender and unintentional injury cause.
This pyramid chart shows that a fraction of death rates from AEs (coded in light green colour) is CLEARLY VISIBLE in all four horizontal columns for all four countries.
If we would remove the mortality rates related to falls from this chart (they are in violet / bluish-purple columns), the figure would become even more impressive.
Here we go.
Looking at this figure, it becomes evident that DEATH RATES from AEs in women of ENGLAND were nearly the same as from road traffic injuries in 2013.
You can believe or not, but mortality rates from AEs among women of SCOTLAND exceeded death rates from RTI in 2013.
All that demonstrates that AEs as a cause of unintentional injury is a significant public health and medical problem in the UK and, probably, in all other countries of the world.
What do we know about clinical epidemiology of AEs?
Comprehensive scans of research on harms related to AEs of medical treatment in the UK shows that knowledge about the levels of AEs arising from medical treatment is based on a few studies from regional acute care hospitals of England. That means that knowledge regarding burden of adverse effects (AEs) of medical treatment in the UK is SCANTY.
EXAMPLES:
It is reported that ONE OUT OF TEN (i.e. 10%) patients admitted to a large acute care hospital in England experience an AE of medical treatment.
A third of clinical AEs usually led to moderate or severe disability or death.
Case fatality rate from AEs is 8%.
Other reports on clinical outcomes from AEs in England were grounded on the annual number of patient safety related incidents – less than 0.5% of incidents involved death.
EXAMPLE: a fatal fall from the chair when a patient with clinical diagnosis of skull fracture and intracranial haemorrhage was under the influence of prescribed gabapentinoids and opiods in early reabilitation phase.
However:
1. Little (or nearly nothing) is known about the trends and patterns in incidence and mortality from AEs in the UK and its geographical regions over time.
2. There is no certainty regarding a rank of the UK in the line of high-income low-mortality countries, for no attempts made up-to-date to provide meaningful comparisons based on age standardisation.
3. In England, a recent analysis led by John Newton confirmed that marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived English populations remain, despite the fact that mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates from 306 diseases and injuries reduced over the period 1990 – 2013.
HOWEVER, the relationship between socioeconomic deprivation level & health loss from AEs arising from medical treatment has not been shown in John Newton’s study published in THE LANCET in 2015.
The advent of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study in 2010 provides a standardised approach to address the problem because,
as per definition, GBD is a systematic, scientific enterprise to measure epidemiological levels of and quantify the magnitude of health loss from diseases, injuries, and risk factors by age, gender, and geography for specific points in time.
GBD interactive data visualisation tools & models provide a chance to explore data and epidemiological estimates from AEs of medical treatment at the population level.
In this study, we aimed to show whether the UK itself made progress in reducing the burden of AEs arising from medical treatment between 1990 and 2013.
1. To provide levels, trends, patterns, and comparisons of incidence and mortality from AEs in the UK, countries of the UK and the regions of England from 1990 to 2013 - was the first objective.
2. To show how levels, trends and patterns generated from analysis of estimates of deaths and DALYs from AEs depend on socioeconomic deprivation level in England - was the second objective of this study.
For the present analysis, three GBD study interactive data visualisation tools ‘Epi Visualization’, ‘GBD Compare’ and ‘GBD Compare – Public Health England’ was used to retrieve the estimates for the incidence, mortality and DALYs from AEs of medical treatment.
- The incidence and mortality rates for the UK are age-standardised using the GBD 2013 standard population.
- Subtraction of M/I ratio from 1 is a proxy for survival rate. It is a number typically (although not necessarily) between 0 and 1, where 0 points to an extremely poor 0% survival and 1 points to an excellent (100%) survival.
- For England and its regions, we provide death and DALY rates for men and (or) women of all ages a year.
We used final fits for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013.
Information on estimated population size for the countries of the UK and the English regions was provided by Office for National Statistics for further calculations.
Let me say a few words about the term ‘Disability Adjusted Life Year’ or DALY.
A DALY is the summary measure (a SUM) of years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality (i.e. total loss of health) and years lived with disability (YLD) due to partial loss of health.
Life expectancy at birth is one of the formula components calculating YLLs for each country. They differ as life expectancy at birth differs in every state of the world.
In the UK for the year 2015, a newborn baby boy could expect to live 79.1 years and a newborn baby girl 82.8 years if mortality rates remain the same as they were in the UK in 2012–2014 throughout their lives. Life expectancy tables for a specific age group are available in THE LANCET 2015.
Only coded AEs of medical treatment from hospitals and emergency departments were included into the process of estimations.
Approximately 350 ICD-9 and ICD-10 AE codes for medicine & surgery combined were used for this study.
NOTA BENE! To show levels, trends, and patterns of AEs over time, all codes of AEs as a whole were taken into account for further estimations.
We will NOT speak about a particular one AEs of treatment, either medical, surgical or radiological. However, all further ramifications from this primary study are possible in the years to come.
The UK was compared with 32 other high-income countries to provide the meaningful comparisons of the AGE-STANDARDISED rates of incidence and mortality from AEs of medical treatment.
This set includes four high-income Asia Pacific countries (Brunei, Japan, Singapore, South Korea), two Australasia countries (Australia, New Zealand), two North America countries (Canada, United States), three Southern Latin America countries (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay) and 21 Western Europe countries (Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Israel, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland).
England was divided into nine statistical regions - …
This table provides information on population size by gender for each country of the UK and the 9 English regions.
Two points to mention:
First, Female population size was 32.5 MM in 2013; male population size was only 31,5 MM (i.e. one MM less).
Second, London and South East are the biggest regions of the England, in terms of population size.
Briefly about the stratification of England into five deprivation levels (LSOA).The territory of England is computationally divided into 32,844 small areas or neighbourhoods, called Lower-layer Super Output Areas. This division into areas is based on a composite metric called as The Index of Multiple Deprivation – IMD.
In essence, the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 is an index resulting from seven domains – income (22.5% weighting), employment (22.5%), health and disability (13.5%), education, skills and training (13.5%), barriers to housing and services (9.3%), living environment (9.3%), and crime (9.3%).
Further, each of the nine English regions was divided into five deprivation groups, or 45 regional deprivation areas
All 45 deprivation areas of England were further grouped into five levels, because a factor of regional geography accounts for only a small proportion of the variance between deprivation areas in England.
The most deprived area was referred to as deprivation level 1, the moderately deprived areas as deprivation level 3, the least deprived area as deprivation level 5.
This map shows distribution of the English Indices of Multiple Deprivation – IMD. Most deprived areas of England are marked in dark blue and blue colors.
We will call them in this presentation as deprivation level 1, for most deprived populations live there.
Least deprived areas of the country are marked in yellow color. We will call them – level 5.
We show the means with 95% UI for age-standardized incidence and mortality for the UK & 32 high-income countries.
We provide the means with 95% uncertainty intervals for deaths, death and DALY rates per 100,000 men and (or) women of all ages a year.
We calculated percentage difference between the means for level 1 and 5 at the same time points.
We calculated percentage change between two values at different points in time.
Majority of our graphs were created in Excel, transported to PDF and edited using EPS software
Objective No. 1: I am reporting results. I will provide comments.
Estimates of incident cases in the UK in 1990 and 2013, by gender and geographical region, are presented in this table.
Two comments:
First, the table shows that the levels of incident cases were highest in London and South East of England. Not surprisingly, these two regions are most populated.
Second, the number of incident cases of AEs arising from medical treatment increased.
--------------------------
(In grand total, 99,696 incident cases have been estimated for the 1990. 107,677 incident cases have been estimated for the year 2013.)
This slide shows a trend line chart from the mean age-standardised incidence rates per 100,000 individuals with AEs in the UK, by geography, gender and year.
In 1990 and 2013, the incidence rate was 175 and 176 per 100,000 men, 173 and 174 per 100,000 women in the UK.
This figure demonstrates stability in incidence from clinical AEs among men and women in the geographical regions of the UK between 1990 and 2013.
It is another way of expression of not-changing incidence rates in the UK, by gender and geography, between 1990 and 2013 using 100% stacked column chart.
In essence, a distribution of the 42 proportions is nearly equal in this chart.
This figure shows age-standardised INCIDENCE rates from AEs in 33 high-income countries in 2013, by gender.
It illustrates a SIMILAR incidence among men and women in 30 countries out of 33. The UK is in a middle of the line of 33 countries.
The US, Canada, and the Netherlands stand out with super-high incidence rates.
This figure shows the trends of age-specific incidence rates of AEs of medical treatment in men and women in the UK in 1990 and 2013.
IN ESSENCE, THEY ARE SIMILAR. However, the figure highlights two peculiarities.
FIRST, This figure suggests a division of each trend line into four parts reflecting age groups 0 – 364 days (with moderately high incidence rates), 1 – 9 years (with lowest rates), 10 – 64 years (with steadily increasing rates), and 65 – 80+ years (with extremely high incidence rates). In other words, it reflects greater morbidity related to clinical AEs in NEONATES AND ELDERLY.
SECOND, Trends are more distinct for men than women.
For interim summary:
AEs incidence levels & patterns varied minimally by geography of the UK and gender.
Incidence rates were significantly higher in the US, Canada and the Netherlands.
In essence, stability in the incidence of AEs arising from medical treatment is a global phenomenon.
This table provides information on a number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) from AEs in individuals of both genders combined in 1990 and 2013, by the regional geography of England and a constituent country of the UK.
Five comments are as follows:
The number of deaths due to clinical AEs decreased by 8.6% in the UK.
Mortality rate declined from 1.33 deaths per 100,000 individuals to 0.92 deaths in the UK between 1990 and 2013; and that means positive 30.8% change.
The positive change in Greater London is notable – 27.8% decrease in deaths and 37% change in ASMRs from 1990 and 2013.
In contrast, the number of deaths increased in Northern Ireland and Scotland by 13.5%.
The decrease of ASMR in Scotland was the least in the UK – 13.7%.
As shown in this figure, ASMR trends were descending in every region of the UK between 1990 and 2013. And that means that progress in all regions of the UK was achieved in 2013.
However, the mortality rates varied by the geography and gender.
They were highest in Scotland, North East England, and West Midlands, whereas they were lowest in South England and Northern Ireland.
It is similar figure with the same message.
It highlights a decline in mortality rates from AEs between 1990 and 2013 in individuals OF BOTH GENDERS COMBINED, by the regional geography of the UK.
It is an impressive figure, I think. It shows significant variations in mortality rates from AEs in 2013, by gender and country. Mortality rates were lowest in Switzerland, Singapore, Finland, and Norway; they were highest in Israel, Argentina, and France. The UK took modest No. 15 spot in the ranking of the 33 countries.
COMPARISON of mortality rates among women, showed that the UK is performing worse than Switzerland by 9.9 times, Singapore by 4.5 times, Finland by 3.5 times, Norway by 3.1 times, Brunei by 2.8 times, and Malta by 2.1 times. In men, the UK is performing worse than Switzerland by 10.1 times, Singapore by 5.1 times, Finland by 4.2 times, and Norway by 2.7 times.
And one more impressive finding: blue colour columns of this chart (that is men) are higher than red colour columns (women). That indicates that death rates from AE were higher in men in 23 countries out of 33, in 2013.
Thus figure depicts a pattern of age-specific mortality rates from AEs among men and women in the UK, in 1990 and 2013. It shows that mortality rates are comparable in new-born infants and in 70 – 74 year old individuals. All four trend lines for age-specific mortality begin to markedly increase in the age group of 60 – 64 years.
To add to this, this figure shows that, in 1990, nearly all age-specific mortality rates – age groups from 10 to 24 years were the exceptions – were higher among women.
IN CONTRAST, they were universally higher among men in all 20 age groups in 2013, in the UK.
This finding is a base for another research question: what are distributions of percentage differences from age-specific AE mortality in men and women.
This slide provides an answer to the question.
The figure highlights the percentage differences from age-specific AE mortality in men and women. The greatest difference in age-specific mortality rates was observed in the age groups 20 – 24 and 25 – 29, 30.1% and 26.7%, respectively. The descending exponential trend line shows that a factor of male gender for mortality from AEs arising from medical treatment is diminishing in a population of older individuals.
So, we summarize that the decline in mortality rate by 30.8% indicates the progress in the UK to improve clinical outcomes related to AEs arising from medical treatment.
However, mortality varied markedly by the regional geography of the UK.
We think that it is important to recognize that disparities persist between North England and South England, Scotland and England or Northern Ireland.
The UK is performing worse 10-fold than Switzerland
A factor of gender matters: MEN die more often from AEs arising from medical treatment than WOMEN.
Two figures on survival from AEs.
For the UK, survival rate from AEs of medical treatment was 99.5% in 2013.
The highest survival rate was observed in South West England – 99.6%. The lowest – in Scotland (99.0%).
This figure shows the survival rate from AEs in 33 high-income nations in 2013. The survival varied markedly within the range of 2.3% for women and 2.7% for men.
The UK is ranked 18th for women and 13-14th for men (the same ratio was estimated to be for Italy and the UK).
Switzerland, Singapore, and Finland were the best three performing countries regarding survival from AEs of medical treatment in 2013.
Points for interim summary are as follows:
Scotland is the country with highest burden from AEs in the UK
North East of England is the English region where AE mortality is highest and survival is lowest in England
Switzerland, Singapore & Finland are the best performing countries
I am further reporting most astonishing results of the study on the possible linkage between socioeconomic deprivation level and loss of health from AEs of medical treatment in England.
Number of deaths, death rates, and DALY rates were taken into account as the metrics.
The relation between deprivation level and deaths in England is charted in this figure. The numbers of deaths, as the means, displayed in 30 color-coded fractions of the columns.
The 100% stacked column chart shows that the number of deaths is increasing steadily from level 5 (least deprived populations) to level 1 (most deprived).
It demonstrates that a distinct pattern of disproportional distributions of deaths from AEs of medical treatment, by deprivation level, is a fact.
This table well shows differences between marginal deprivation levels 1 and 5 regarding death rates. I would just like to provide THREE comments:
1. Death rates were higher in all most deprived areas of the English regions in both 1990 and 2013, except for Greater London in the year 2013.
2. The North East of England is a notable region, in terms of death rates.
3. Overall, progress in reduction of death rates in England was made at both marginal levels of deprivation, despite inequalities between them.
This figure shows trends from the rates of deaths per 100,000 individuals of both genders combined in England, by EVERY deprivation level from 1990 to 2013.
It highlights a distinct pattern, with lowest death rates from AEs in least deprived populations (bottom trend line for level 5), and they remained stable over a period of 24 years.
It is important to stress that the percentage difference between the AE death rates for least deprived and most deprived areas of England in 2013 was substantial – 27.31%.
This Figure, I WOULD SAY, best outlines inequalities in DALY rates in men and women by deprivation level and year in England.
The trend line for the moderately deprived (deprivation level 3 – green colour line) is strictly in between marginal levels 1 and 5, and there are no crossovers in trend lines 1, 3 and 5 for men and women. This chart also shows that variations in DALY rates across the level 4 and level 5 deprivation areas were minimal in England between 1990 and 2013.
Despite the fact that the difference in AE DALY rates between the most deprived and least deprived areas narrowed in England, this figure suggests that SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS IS A RISK FACTOR for adverse outcomes from AEs both in men and women.
This figure is a composition of two 100% stacked bar charts. It shows the relative contribution of the marginal deprivation levels 1 (blue colour coded) and 5 (red colour coded) on DALY rates from AEs, by gender and geography. Blue colour is dominant in this chart. THAT MEANS THAT populations from most deprived areas are at highest risk of loss of health from AEs arising from medical treatment. This pattern is NOT RELEVANT only for the Greater London female population (as a percentage proportion of DALY rate in women from deprivation level 5 overweighed the women proportion from deprivation level 1).
Final Conclusions are as follows:
First,…........Second.......s
And third, we believe that our findings of this study are convincing enough to bring attention of the public on how deprivation level matters on outcomes of AEs of medical treatment in health care facilities of England and probably worldwide.
These are three take-home messages – two of them are on the top of this slide, and one, most important, on the bottom.
…. for their comments, critical revisions of the manuscripts, and technical assistance.