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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6
Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 17 February 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
QGMD 12.51 12.00
MCCS 104.90 102.20
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,605.46 -0.7 12.6
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 12,800 12,900 13,000
Support 12,600 12,350 12,250
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
As expected, the 12,800 level proved to
be a strong resistance. Bulls tried to break
that level but failed as the bears were in
control. The technical indicators are
turning south and displaying bearish
momentum. On the daily frame, the
MACD is losing ground, based on its
Histogram. Moreover, the RSI created a
bearish failure swing. Only a strong break
above 12,800 can reverse the
bearishness.
Expected Resistance Level: 12,800
Expected Support Level: 12,600
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 16 Feb 15 15 Feb 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 437.0 625.6 -30.1
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 683.1 686.7 -0.5
Volume (mn) 9.7 16.5 -41.2
Number of Trans. 4,988 6,912 -27.8
Companies Traded 40 42 -4.8
Market Breadth 13:23 22:16 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,920.38 -0.7 62.3
All Share Index 3,262.39 -0.5 64.1
Banks 3,269.27 -1.1 58.3
Industrials 4,034.79 0.1 58.6
Transportation 2,468.23 -0.4 69.7
Real Estate 2,561.88 -0.8 66.6
Insurance 4,075.70 1.5 68.6
Telecoms 1,440.80 -0.5 58.4
Consumer 7,514.38 0.5 70.7
Al Rayan Islamic 4,422.97 -0.1 67.2
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
MCGS 148.00 2.8 82.3
QGMD 12.51 1.5 81.9
AHCS 18.70 2.9 75.4
QATI 93.70 2.5 73.9
QIIK 87.60 0.0 70.9
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6
QGMD
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 12.51 1.54 1,381,969
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 13.00 14.40 14.70
Support 12.00 11.50 11.30
Commentary
Overview:
The name created a Tombstone Doji
candlestick. It is an important candlestick
with significant reversal implications. It
reflects the bullish psychology that started
in the morning of the previous session but
then reversed and closed losing all the
gains made during that session. The Doji
was coupled with high volumes; this could
have a strong reversal force given the RSI
reached the overbought area in both the
daily and the intraday charts.
Expected Price Retreat: QR12.00 –
QR11.75
Sell when price breaks below QR12.50.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6
MCCS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 104.90 0.19 13,061
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 106.80 108.50 111.00
Support 104.80 102.20 99.50
Commentary
Overview:
MCCS turned south last week and is
currently trading in a range. Based on the
technical indicators, this movement could
continue in the same direction. For
instance, the name is trading below its
100SMA, 200SMA (these two moving
averages are turning downwards) and just
above its 50SMA.
On the daily chart, the Histogram is
showing weakness while the RSI is at the
neutral area.
Expected Price Retreat: QR102.20 –
QR100.00
Selling trigger is set on a breach below
QR104.80.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6
Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,605.46 12,524.95 12,567.71 12,594.13 12,636.88 12,679.64 12,706.06 12,748.81 12,128.62 12,852.36 12,987.59
Total Return 18,920.38 18,799.53 18,863.71 18,903.36 18,967.54 19,031.72 19,071.37 19,135.55 18,113.46 19,181.04 19,376.10
All Share 3,262.39 3,241.58 3,251.78 3,258.08 3,268.27 3,278.47 3,284.77 3,294.96 3,111.44 3,274.10 3,298.87
Al Rayan Islamic 4,422.97 4,387.34 4,403.03 4,412.72 4,428.40 4,444.09 4,453.78 4,469.46 4,105.38 4,339.23 4,377.04
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 48.65 47.55 48.05 48.35 48.85 49.35 49.65 50.15 45.40 48.59 51.14
CBQK 69.60 68.53 68.92 69.15 69.53 69.92 70.15 70.53 67.71 70.17 69.20
DHBK 57.80 57.20 57.43 57.57 57.80 58.03 58.17 58.40 56.57 57.73 59.25
QIBK 105.00 102.67 104.00 104.83 106.17 107.50 108.33 109.67 103.02 107.02 104.66
QIIK 87.60 86.20 86.77 87.13 87.70 88.27 88.63 89.20 80.74 83.73 84.62
Insurance
QATI 93.70 88.63 90.31 91.35 93.03 94.71 95.75 97.43 86.12 91.45 88.60
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 148.00 142.00 143.91 145.09 147.00 148.91 150.09 152.00 121.44 124.69 113.02
Industrials
IQCD 153.20 151.73 152.50 152.97 153.73 154.50 154.97 155.73 161.18 175.98 179.26
QEWS 200.00 198.67 199.24 199.59 200.17 200.74 201.09 201.67 189.35 189.01 187.65
GISS 102.90 101.50 102.26 102.74 103.50 104.26 104.74 105.50 97.01 108.11 106.57
QIGD 41.40 40.00 40.40 40.65 41.05 41.45 41.70 42.10 39.57 45.24 52.74
Real Estate
BRES 48.50 47.63 48.05 48.31 48.73 49.15 49.41 49.83 43.90 44.20 42.28
UDCD 24.25 23.75 23.94 24.06 24.25 24.44 24.56 24.75 23.90 25.64 26.29
ERES 17.36 17.08 17.22 17.31 17.45 17.59 17.68 17.82 15.22 17.20 20.13
MRDS 20.80 20.47 20.60 20.68 20.82 20.95 21.03 21.17 19.46 21.39 20.92
Telecommunication
ORDS 115.70 114.70 115.23 115.57 116.10 116.63 116.97 117.50 116.28 120.72 128.58
VFQS 18.00 17.61 17.80 17.91 18.09 18.28 18.39 18.57 15.95 17.92 18.78
Transportation
QGTS 25.00 24.61 24.73 24.80 24.93 25.05 25.12 25.25 23.18 23.65 23.74
QNNS 103.80 102.13 102.78 103.18 103.83 104.48 104.88 105.53 97.78 98.08 96.29
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy
and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included
in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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17 February Daily technical trader

  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader – Qatar Tuesday, 17 February 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target QGMD 12.51 12.00 MCCS 104.90 102.20 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,605.46 -0.7 12.6 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,800 12,900 13,000 Support 12,600 12,350 12,250 QSE Index Commentary Overview: As expected, the 12,800 level proved to be a strong resistance. Bulls tried to break that level but failed as the bears were in control. The technical indicators are turning south and displaying bearish momentum. On the daily frame, the MACD is losing ground, based on its Histogram. Moreover, the RSI created a bearish failure swing. Only a strong break above 12,800 can reverse the bearishness. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,600 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 16 Feb 15 15 Feb 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 437.0 625.6 -30.1 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 683.1 686.7 -0.5 Volume (mn) 9.7 16.5 -41.2 Number of Trans. 4,988 6,912 -27.8 Companies Traded 40 42 -4.8 Market Breadth 13:23 22:16 – QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,920.38 -0.7 62.3 All Share Index 3,262.39 -0.5 64.1 Banks 3,269.27 -1.1 58.3 Industrials 4,034.79 0.1 58.6 Transportation 2,468.23 -0.4 69.7 Real Estate 2,561.88 -0.8 66.6 Insurance 4,075.70 1.5 68.6 Telecoms 1,440.80 -0.5 58.4 Consumer 7,514.38 0.5 70.7 Al Rayan Islamic 4,422.97 -0.1 67.2 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI MCGS 148.00 2.8 82.3 QGMD 12.51 1.5 81.9 AHCS 18.70 2.9 75.4 QATI 93.70 2.5 73.9 QIIK 87.60 0.0 70.9 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 QGMD Price % Ch. Volume Last 12.51 1.54 1,381,969 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 13.00 14.40 14.70 Support 12.00 11.50 11.30 Commentary Overview: The name created a Tombstone Doji candlestick. It is an important candlestick with significant reversal implications. It reflects the bullish psychology that started in the morning of the previous session but then reversed and closed losing all the gains made during that session. The Doji was coupled with high volumes; this could have a strong reversal force given the RSI reached the overbought area in both the daily and the intraday charts. Expected Price Retreat: QR12.00 – QR11.75 Sell when price breaks below QR12.50. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 MCCS Price % Ch. Volume Last 104.90 0.19 13,061 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 106.80 108.50 111.00 Support 104.80 102.20 99.50 Commentary Overview: MCCS turned south last week and is currently trading in a range. Based on the technical indicators, this movement could continue in the same direction. For instance, the name is trading below its 100SMA, 200SMA (these two moving averages are turning downwards) and just above its 50SMA. On the daily chart, the Histogram is showing weakness while the RSI is at the neutral area. Expected Price Retreat: QR102.20 – QR100.00 Selling trigger is set on a breach below QR104.80. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 12,605.46 12,524.95 12,567.71 12,594.13 12,636.88 12,679.64 12,706.06 12,748.81 12,128.62 12,852.36 12,987.59 Total Return 18,920.38 18,799.53 18,863.71 18,903.36 18,967.54 19,031.72 19,071.37 19,135.55 18,113.46 19,181.04 19,376.10 All Share 3,262.39 3,241.58 3,251.78 3,258.08 3,268.27 3,278.47 3,284.77 3,294.96 3,111.44 3,274.10 3,298.87 Al Rayan Islamic 4,422.97 4,387.34 4,403.03 4,412.72 4,428.40 4,444.09 4,453.78 4,469.46 4,105.38 4,339.23 4,377.04 Banks & Financials Services MARK 48.65 47.55 48.05 48.35 48.85 49.35 49.65 50.15 45.40 48.59 51.14 CBQK 69.60 68.53 68.92 69.15 69.53 69.92 70.15 70.53 67.71 70.17 69.20 DHBK 57.80 57.20 57.43 57.57 57.80 58.03 58.17 58.40 56.57 57.73 59.25 QIBK 105.00 102.67 104.00 104.83 106.17 107.50 108.33 109.67 103.02 107.02 104.66 QIIK 87.60 86.20 86.77 87.13 87.70 88.27 88.63 89.20 80.74 83.73 84.62 Insurance QATI 93.70 88.63 90.31 91.35 93.03 94.71 95.75 97.43 86.12 91.45 88.60 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 148.00 142.00 143.91 145.09 147.00 148.91 150.09 152.00 121.44 124.69 113.02 Industrials IQCD 153.20 151.73 152.50 152.97 153.73 154.50 154.97 155.73 161.18 175.98 179.26 QEWS 200.00 198.67 199.24 199.59 200.17 200.74 201.09 201.67 189.35 189.01 187.65 GISS 102.90 101.50 102.26 102.74 103.50 104.26 104.74 105.50 97.01 108.11 106.57 QIGD 41.40 40.00 40.40 40.65 41.05 41.45 41.70 42.10 39.57 45.24 52.74 Real Estate BRES 48.50 47.63 48.05 48.31 48.73 49.15 49.41 49.83 43.90 44.20 42.28 UDCD 24.25 23.75 23.94 24.06 24.25 24.44 24.56 24.75 23.90 25.64 26.29 ERES 17.36 17.08 17.22 17.31 17.45 17.59 17.68 17.82 15.22 17.20 20.13 MRDS 20.80 20.47 20.60 20.68 20.82 20.95 21.03 21.17 19.46 21.39 20.92 Telecommunication ORDS 115.70 114.70 115.23 115.57 116.10 116.63 116.97 117.50 116.28 120.72 128.58 VFQS 18.00 17.61 17.80 17.91 18.09 18.28 18.39 18.57 15.95 17.92 18.78 Transportation QGTS 25.00 24.61 24.73 24.80 24.93 25.05 25.12 25.25 23.18 23.65 23.74 QNNS 103.80 102.13 102.78 103.18 103.83 104.48 104.88 105.53 97.78 98.08 96.29 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  • 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.