4. THE STATE OF PLAY
Leave
33%
16%
ComRes Tracker Question
Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether
or not the UK should stay in or leave the European
Union (EU), how would you vote?”
Base: Telephone poll of 1,000 GB adults 29-31 May 2015.
Split sample: 500 adults asked each version of the version
Stay in
51%
5. HOW IMPORTANT IS QUESTION WORDING?
5
Yes
58%
11%
Proposed Government Wording of
Referendum Question
Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow, how would
you vote on the following question: Should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the European
Union?”
No
31%
6. LESSONS FROM SCOTLAND
6
Source: What Scotland Thinks 15 September 2014
STRENGTH OF THE STATUS QUO
IMPORTANCE OF CLEAR OUTCOMES
STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE MESSAGES,
ALLIED TO POSITIVE VISION
7. AV REFERENDUM: A WARNING AGAINST
COMPLACENCY
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AV FPTP
Source: UK Polling Report
9. EUROPE IS A LOW PRIORITY RELATIVE TO OTHER
ISSUES
9
49%
44%
23%
20% 20%
18% 18% 17% 16% 16%
10%
Managing the
NHS
Controlling
immigration
Keeping down
the cost of
everyday items
Promoting
economic
growth
Making sure
the benefits of
economic
growth are felt
by all
Making the
welfare system
fairer
Reducing the
Government’s
budget deficit
Providing
adequate care
for the elderly
Redefining
Britain's
relationship
with the EU
Improving
housing
affordability
Improving the
education
system
Q. Which of the following do you think should be the biggest priorities for the Government at the present
time? Please select up to three. Base: British adults (n=2,036), April 2015
12. FARAGE: A DIVISIVE FIGURE
12
38% “irritating”
37% “weird”
24%
“out of touch with
ordinary people”
21% “intelligent”
18%
“comes across as
someone like me”
22% FAVOURABLE
50%
UNFAVOURABLE
14. LOW SATISFACTION WITH THE EU
14
13%
16%
19%
19%
20%
20%
46%
26%
22%
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. To what extent are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the European
Union in its current form?
15. BRITAIN WANTS LESS EU INTERFERENCE
15
7%
13% 13%
18% 18% 19%
42% 44%
49%
29%
38% 38%
33% 37% 31%
38%
28% 21%
64%
49% 49% 49%
46%
49%
20%
28% 30%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Involvement of the EU in the affairs of your country
More involvement About same level Less involvement
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
16. QUO VADIS EUROPA?
16
7% 24% 44% 25%UK
11% 25% 44% 20%
22% 42% 23% 14%
5% 49% 34% 12%
23% 50% 17% 10%
6% 50% 31% 14%
45% 18% 23% 13%
20% 27% 36% 17%
37% 35% 17% 12%
A single country /a
United States of Europe
Current EU model
Reduced to simply
being about trade deals
between European
countries
Disbanding the
European Union
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view of the
size of the European Union (EU)?
28. TARGETTING THOSE WHO VOTE
28
48%
48%
58%
67%
48%
56%
66%
11%
12%
10%
7%
13%
9%
8%
41%
40%
31%
26%
39%
35%
25%
DE
C2
C1
AB
55+
35-54
18-34
Stay In Don't know Leave
Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU) how would
you vote? Base: All GB adults (n=1,011), 3-5 May 2015.
Age
Social
Grade