http://www.playapropertiesforsale.com/ A statistical report on Tourist and Ex-Pat safety in Mexico.

1. MEXICO SAFETY REPORT May 1, 2014
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Safety in Mexico
A Statistical Report on Tourist and Ex-Pat Safety in Mexico

2. MEXICO SAFETY REPORT May 1, 2014
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A Report on the Safety of Mexico
The purpose of this report is simply to bring some clarity to the issue of safety
while traveling or living in Mexico, and separate fact from fiction by using
verifiable statistics. Using hard numbers to tell the whole story, how safe (or
unsafe) it is to travel in Mexico can be determined objectively. Americans and
Canadians can then compare the dangers of traveling to Mexico – with a focus
on the Riviera Maya, Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum – to traveling and
living within the United States.
This Report on the Safety of Mexico© was written by Steve Didier. Steve is the
Chief Marketing Officer for American Realty in Playa del Carmen and has lived
in the Riviera Maya for over a year at the time of this writing. He has been
involved in the real estate industry for 14 years and having traveled
throughout Mexico and currently residing in the Riviera Maya, has an intimate
knowledge of the subject matter.
All of the research and information has been compiled to get a clear picture of
what is really happening in Mexico. There are a myriad of mixed reports from
journalists and no shortage of sensational headlines regarding the issue of
safety in Mexico and very little objectivity. By looking at Mexico as a whole
and then digging deeper into the numbers in the tourist areas specifically, the
report will give a complete overview of the issue of safety in Mexico.

3. MEXICO SAFETY REPORT May 1, 2014
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MEXICO 2014
Much has been made of Mexico’s drug wars in the media. There is a war of sorts happening in
Mexico, not only between the Government and the Cartels, but also between rival Cartel
factions as well. Since this war began in 2006, there has been a dramatic rise in the number of
violent deaths in Mexico.
The US State Department has issued travel advisories for several regions throughout Mexico in
response to this, particularly along the US – Mexico border. Many cities along the border are
hot spots for drug related violence as rival Cartels vie for control of the trafficking routes into
the United States, and the various law enforcement agencies attempt to stop the flow of illegal
drugs.

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Summary
Statistically speaking, you are far more likely to be a victim of homicide while residing in the
United States than you are while vacationing in Mexico.
The results stated throughout this report have been calculated by examining the number of
American tourists to visit Mexico within the given time period, as well as the numbers of
homicides involving US citizens.
The numbers* – Mexico compared to the United States
Since 2006, approximately 109 innocent Americans have been victims of homicide in Mexico.
The estimated number of American citizens that have traveled to Mexico in that time span is
approximately 80 million. Here is a brief breakdown of the danger associated with a trip to
Mexico:
 You are 25 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Orlando than in Mexico;
418 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya and surrounding areas specifically.
 You are 48 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Chicago than in Mexico;
800 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya and surrounding areas specifically.
 You are 54 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Miami than in Mexico;
890 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya and surrounding areas specifically.
 You are 107 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in New Orleans than in
Mexico; 1179 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya & surrounding areas
specifically.
 You are 129 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Detroit than in Mexico;
2125 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya and surrounding areas specifically.
*Numbers calculated from 2012 FBI Crime Statistics

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Perspective
The first thing to note about these numbers is that nearly all of the murders involving
Americans occurred in known Cartel hot spots, namely on the US-Mexico border and along
known drug trafficking routes. These locations are NOT popular tourist areas and are for the
most part, are located far away from the areas that most Americans visit.
As of this writing, the US State Department has issued a travel warning for certain provinces in
Mexico, but states in the travel warning that the advisory is region specific. It also notes that
Americans are not specifically targeted.
“Millions of U.S. citizens safely visit Mexico each year for study, tourism, and
business, including more than 150,000 who cross the border every day. The
Mexican government dedicates substantial resources to protect visitors to major
tourist destinations, and there is no evidence that Transnational Criminal
Organizations (TCOs) have targeted U.S. visitors or residents based on their
nationality.” (www. travel.state.gov)
According to the data, you are more far likely to die of a bee sting, being struck by lightning or
drowning in your own bathtub than of becoming a homicide victim in Mexico as a tourist. (See
page 10 )
Statistics also show very clearly that nearly every single murder committed in the United States
happens between American Citizens only, and very similarly, homicides in Mexico occur
primarily between Mexican Citizens only. (GRAPH 1)
Homicides in Mexico 2006-2012
Total Homicides - 120,747
Homicides involving US Citizens -
514

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Between 2006 and 2012, a total of 514 US citizens have been killed in all of Mexico. Some of
these deaths were not even remotely caused – either directly or indirectly – by the drug war or
cartels. For the sake of worst-case scenario calculations and for simplicity, we will assume that
all of them were, in some way, shape or form.
Over 99% of all the drug war murders occurred only between Mexican citizens. Of the less than
1% of homicides that did involve a US citizen, many of those were dual citizenship holders, i.e.
holding both Mexican and American citizenship.
A Closer Look
Of those 514 American murder victims, approximately 109 of them are assumed to be
innocent*, with the remainder all having been involved with Mexican drug cartels in some
aspect – drug trafficking/production, etc.
The raw data shows that an American citizen is over 16 times more likely to be murdered while
residing in the United States than while on vacation in Mexico – even when you include the
violent border towns.
When you start looking at data from the popular tourist destinations, then the odds go down
considerably. They go down even further if your destination choice is the Yucatan Peninsula,
including Merida, Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel and Tulum. These are some of Mexico’s
(and the world’s) top tourist destinations and your chance of being murdered in the United
States becomes a staggering 275 times more likely than in these tourist hot spots. (GRAPH 2)
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
.00496% at home
.00031% in Mexico
ChanceofDying
US vs. on vacation in Mexico
Chance of Dying in the US vs. Dying in Mexico

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By taking the number of homicides that occurred in the US in 2009 against the population of
the US in 2009, we can calculate the percentage chance of a US citizen being murdered in
his/her own country.
We can then divide the approximate number of innocent victims by the years of the drug-war
to give an estimate of innocent deaths in 2009. This number is then divided by the number of
tourists that visited Mexico throughout 2009. Any homicide victims in Quintana Roo are
assumed innocent (for the sake of this report).
Data also shows the chance of a US citizen being murdered in the US varies incredibly
depending on the location. This fact may seem obvious but is often forgotten. It is very
important to remember this in regards to Mexico or any other location in the world for that
matter.
Deaths by Location
The location of which US citizens were murdered is very important when interpreting news
headlines concerning the drug-war in Mexico. Most of these deaths occur in either border-
towns that have large amounts of illegal drug-related activity or in locales noted for the
greatest amounts of narcotic production. (GRAPH 3)
Deaths of Americans by Region/State (data from 2006 – 2010)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Other (Total of other 24 States)
Total in Guerrero State
Total in Sinoloa State
Total in Sonora State
Total in Jalisco State
Total in Tamaulipas State
Nuevo Laredo
Total Baja California State
Tijuana (Baja California)
Total in Chihuahua State
Cuidad Juarez
American Deaths by State
American Deaths by State

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It is also noteworthy that the areas where most cartel related deaths concerning Mexicans take
place are in fact the same locations in which most of the homicides involving Americans occur -
namely the Border States of Chihuahua (primarily Cuidad Juarez), Tamaulipas (primarily Nuevo
Laredo), Baja California (primarily Tijuana), Sinaloa and Sonora.
Approximately 70% of the 120,747 total recorded drug-related homicides in Mexico committed
since 2006 have taken place in only 85 of the 2,438 municipalities (about 3%*) in Mexico.
Studies suggest at least 89% of the fatalities are suspected gang members killed in turf wars
between the different organizations that compete for control of trafficking routes into the US.
Since the locations with the highest mortality rates are not very popular tourist destinations it
can be safely assumed the US citizens in these locations are far more likely to be involved in
drug-related activities as can be seen by graph 3, since only approximately 109 of all American
homicide victims were considered innocent to begin with.
This data shows it is incorrect for media sources to report American deaths in Mexico under the
pretence that they are automatically innocent law-abiding citizens. If the locations that the
murders take place match, there is a much higher chance of them being active cartel members.
Digging Deeper
The data establishes that the location of any given US citizen in Mexico is a determining factor
to their survivability concerning homicide. The data can be further broken down to show even
further reduction of the likelihood of becoming a murder victim in the state of Quintana Roo,
and more specifically; Cancun, Playa del Carmen and the entire Riviera Maya, over the course of
the entire drug-war from 2006-2010. (GRAPH 4)
Innocent American Deaths in Mexico
2006 - 2013
Total Deaths
Deaths in Cancun

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Popular Vacation Destinations
Homicide rates per 100,000 for the year 2010-2011
HOMICIDES PER 100,000 IN POPULAR VACATION DESTINATIONS 2012 (* www.unodc.org) (GRAPH 5)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
St. Kitts & Nevis
Belize
Jamaica
Bahamas
Brazil
St. Lucia
Mexico
Per 100,000
Per 100,000

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Fast Facts
 OVER 150,000 AMERICANS CROSS THE BORDER INTO MEXICO EVERY SINGLE DAY.
 MEXICO CITY IS ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF LONDON AND PARIS PUT TOGETHER.
 SWEDEN AND SWITZERLAND HAVE A HIGHER HOMICIDE RATE THAN MEXICO (2010)
 THE ASSAULT RATE IS 5 TIMES HIGHER IN THE UNITED STATES THAN IN MEXICO.
More Likely Ways to Die*
Let’s draw some comparisons to other relatively unlikely ways that you could perish.
 Accidental Poisoning – 1 in 16,000¹
 Drowning – 1 in 65,000²
 Falling out of Bed – 1 in 660,000²
 Drowning in Bathtub – 1 in 800,000³
 Flesh-Eating Bacteria – 1 in 2.5 million⁴
 Struck by Lightning – 1 in 4.2 million³
 Bee Sting – 1 in 6 million³
 Earthquake – 1 in 11 million³
 Terrorist Attack – 1 in 20 million⁵
Chance of becoming a homicide victim while vacationing in Mexico’s most popular tourist State,
Quintana Roo (which includes Playa del Carmen and Cancun)... approximately 1 in 11.4 million
*See pages 14-15 for references

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Editorial
I have vacationed on and off in Mexico since around 1998 and I’ve lived in Mexico for some
time now, having visited many different major cities including Tijuana, Rosarito, Monterrey,
Nuevo Laredo, Veracruz, Tampico, Villahermosa, Chetumal, Chiapas, Cancun and Playa del
Carmen (my current residence). Most, except for Tijuana and Rosarito, have been since the
“drug war” started. I also remember clearly everything I read online while planning my move
down from the US. If I were to have believed everything I read, the streets should be awash in
blood, with severed heads on every street corner and the country itself burning from coast to
coast.
That simply isn’t the case.
That begs the question – since it isn’t true, why would the new outlets paint such a bleak
picture of unmitigated violence and danger? There are several factors involved. First and
foremost, we have to remember that there are two major motivations for publishing a news
story… ratings and income generation. They are businesses and sensationalism drives ratings
and ratings make money.
The American public has been inundated with headlines for years now featuring nothing but
death and destruction south of the border. An unfortunate side effect of these headlines that
is the audiences of these news outlets develop a skewed sense of reality that they now accept
as truth.
Don’t simply take my experience at face value – look at the numbers and really look at the
analysis in the preceding pages. When you take the time to look at the hard reality, all of the
fear mongering regarding the safety issues in Mexico are completely and utterly baseless.
When you look at Graph 5 and see the wide disparity in terms of homicides between Mexico
and those places that are media darlings and promoted as safe tropical paradises – such as St.
Lucia, the Bahamas and St. Kitts/Nevis – it becomes apparent that there is manipulation going
on. You are nearly 4 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in St. Kitts than in Mexico!
There is another, somewhat more disturbing factor in the media sensationalism of Mexico. A
cursory look into the subject shows that there are both strong political motivations and strong
financial motivations to portray Mexico as a violent, dangerous place. Politicians use it as a tool
when promoting their agenda on immigration reform and there are strong political lobbyists in
the corner of the United States vacation industry. Wherever there is money to be made or an

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agenda to further, you can be certain that there will be manipulation of the facts, if not outright
lies.
Stating that all of Mexico is unsafe is as accurate as saying that you should never go to rural
Iowa because there were a record number of shootings in Detroit. It makes no sense to paint
an entire country with one brushstroke and feel that it’s accurate.
If you are considering a vacation or a move to Mexico, simply don’t get involved in the drug
trafficking or manufacturing business, stay out of the known danger zones and use common
sense. The likelihood of you becoming a murder victim is so small, it’s negligible.
Statistically speaking, you should be far more worried about dying from a flesh eating bacteria
since the chances are 450% more likely than being a homicide case. And 1400% higher chance
of you drowning in your bathtub at home as opposed to being killed in the drug war on
vacation.
You aren’t scared of your bathtub, right?

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Conclusion
The numbers show that Mexico is, in fact, a very safe place to vacation, visit and live.
If you take anything away from this report, it should be that Mexico is much safer than the
media would lead you to believe. There can be danger anywhere you travel and I’m not saying
that you could never have a problem – what I am saying is that if you are not doing things you
should not be doing and not involved with people that you shouldn’t be involved with, you can
be 100% safe while having an amazing time with your family.
You can enjoy weather and beaches that are among the best in the world, meet amazing
people and explore ruins of ancient past civilizations. You can indulge in amazing cuisines from
the area, experience extraordinary nightlife and pamper yourself in some of the most luxurious
all-inclusive resorts that the world has to offer. Not to mention the wildlife, adventure tours,
unparalleled diving and snorkeling and unique attractions such as the cenotes – all within a few
hour plane flight from anywhere in the continental United States.
Over a million Americans have pulled up stakes and moved to Mexico on a full or part time
basis. It is an incredible place to work and live or vacation, with a rich culture and some of the
friendliest people you will ever meet.
Take the US travel advisories seriously, use common sense, avoid the areas known for drug
cartel activity and enjoy your experience in this beautiful country!!
Steve Didier
CMO, American Realty
http://www.playapropertiesforsale.com/

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References
References and all un-cited calculations within this document have been made using data from
the following sources:
Graph 1
 http://www2.fbi.gov
 http://www.blog.chron.com
 http://www.travel.state.gov
Graph 2
 http://www2.fbi.gov
 http://www.travel.state.gov
 http://www.unodc.org
 http://city-data.com/
Graph 3
 http://www.unwto.org
 http://www2.fbi.gov
 http://www.blog.chron.com
 http://www.travel.state.gov
Graph 4
 http://www2.fbi.gov
 http://www.travel.state.gov

Graph 5
 http://howsafeismexico.com/
 www.unodc.org

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References (cont)
1. http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com
2. http://www.nationmaster.com
3. http://www.bnet.com
4. http://www.healthlinkbc.ca
5. http://www.associatedcontent.com
Steve can be contacted through American Realty in Playa del Carmen for any questions.
http://www.playapropertiesforsale.com/