Critical Communications at the Edge - 15-04-16 - v1

Critical communications at the edge –
2G to 5G in as few steps as possible?
Peter Clemons - Founder, Quixoticity
Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa,
Wellington, April 15th
, 2016
www.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ #CommsNZ

www.comms-connect.co.nzwww.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ
Quixoticity?
• Educated in UK/Latin America:
• Languages, philosophy, sociology, economics & communications theory
• Clemons Consulting dedicated to critical communications since 1998
• Quixoticity established in March 2012
• 20+ years of experience of economic analysis & project management
& 20 years in mobile communications (global PMR/TETRA)
• Ex-director & board member of global TCCA
• A fresh, flexible, adaptable, more robust approach to forecasting
• Using experience, knowledge & new techniques to open a window on the future
• Working closely together with industry to explore new possibilities
• Seeing the world differently – from new angles & finding new directions
• Championing innovation & visionary thinking
• Very active on LinkedIn!!!

“The new normal?”
• 9/11
• 11-M
• 7/7
• Paris
• Brussels
• Sadly, daily/weekly in some parts of the world
• Hurricanes, cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis
• Accidents, congestion, delays, stress….

Society on the edge
• A world of constant crises
• A lack of leadership & direction from:
– Religious institutions
– Political institutions
– Universities
– Businesses
– International institutions
• Aging population; digital overload; youth unemployment
• Overcrowded cities; lack of rural services;
• Lack of a deeper meaning to life; lack of time

www.comms-connect.co.nzwww.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ www.comms-connect.co.nzwww.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ
Economy on the edge
• Growing inequality (the first digital trillionaire?)
• The mirage of global growth
• Is GDP a good indicator of economic activity?
• The rise of new business models
• The death of old industries
• The 24/7 economy
• The search for a “new equilibrium”
• Re-thinking money & wealth
• A new work-life balance?

Old v New?
• Youth v experience
• Prototype v finished article
• Analogue v Digital
• 2G v 5G
• Past v Future (more about this later)
• Seamless migration; HW/SW upgrades
• Intergenerational compatibilities
• Status quo v change

Rich v Poor?
• Satisfying basic needs
• Universal service obligations
• Provision of basic public services
• Product ownership v access
• Price v value
• Equal opportunities
• Universal human rights, fairness & justice
• Public safety???

Public v Private?
• Market forces
• Command economy
• Capitalism v Socialism
• The public/private space
• Communities
• Partnerships
• New models for societies & economies
• Beyond capitalism/socialism

Critical v commercial?
• Government obligations
• Private enterprise
• Safety & security motive
• Profit motive
• Mission-critical communications
• Best-effort communications
• Guaranteed coverage, reliability & availability
• Lifestyle, marketing, nice-to-have, digital addiction…

The Past
• Fond, but fading memories
• Quaint, outdated products
• Spare parts no longer available
• Incompatible
• Proprietary
• No longer available/supported
• Cheaper to buy a new one!

The Present
• Standards-based
• Economies of scale
• Interoperable
• Digital
• Smart cities; not-so-smart rural areas
• Best-effort
• Dichotomies still exist – at least inside our heads!

The Future
• Anything is possible
• Hopefully better; could be much worse
• Radically different, but not sure how
• Incremental v revolutionary
• Intuitive – if you’re under 20!
• Utopia v dystopia
• What dreams are made of!

The 2G World
• ETSI’s GSM + TETRA
• Digital allows:
– economies of scale & global standards
– harmonised spectrum
• Limited applications, beyond voice
• Increasingly IP-based
• Robust mission-critical comms solutions, separate from commercial solutions
• A big improvement from the past in terms of operational efficiencies & effectiveness

The 3G > 4G World
• Smartphones
• High-speed data
• Internet in my pocket
• Moving towards a single, global platform
• Mobile office
• Greater automation
• First steps towards a brave new world – social media, wearables, VR/AR, IoT, Smart
Cities – but not quite there yet!
• Mission-critical? (i.e. Safe Cities?)

The 5G World
• A promise of future riches
• The solution to all the world’s problems
• Everything to everyone, everywhere
• Total automation; zero-latency; intelligent, adaptable networks
• Full connectivity from Auckland to Fox Glacier
• A nightmare future world where machines take over
• The destruction of middle class jobs
• So what is 5G really??
• We’ll come back to this later

Digital Mobile Radio
• TETRA
• P25
• DMR
• Mission-critical
• Business-critical
• Coverage, capacity, cost & functionality
• Robust voice, short data, applications (GPS, AVL etc.)
• Mature, secure, tried & tested
• (And, of course, analogue hasn’t gone away!)

The TETRA world
• ETSI global standard (1990s > today/tomorrow)
• 25 kHz channels, 4-slot TDMA
• Dedicated frequencies
• Rich functionality
• Ultra-secure
• All sectors; continues to evolve
• European nationwide public safety
• Very limited take-up of TEDS (TETRA Enhanced Data Services)

Public Safety LTE
• LTE begins with 3GPP Release 8
• High-speed data bearer optimised for smartphone-world
• LTE-Advanced (Rel. 10) signals start of “4G”
• US DoD/PSCR enter at R11 (2010/11)
• TCCA CCBG enter at R12 (2012)
• 3GPP SA6 (Public safety apps) created late 2014
• Mission-critical PTT (R13) published last month
• Huawei, Nokia & Ericsson all now TCCA members (Samsung also very active in SA6)

Public Safety LTE around the world
• 3GPP SA6 is the battleground!
• R12+13 complete; R14 being defined
• WRC-15 – Resolution 646 – 694-894 MHz
• FirstNet (USA)
• ESMCP/ESN (UK)
• SafeNet (Korea)
• Australian Productivity Commission
• Europe – TETRA refresh; data MVNOs; dwindling budgets
• Latin America (Mexico – Red Compartida)

FirstNet
• 9/11 highlights lack of first-responder interoperability/technical deficiencies
• DHS/Safecom
• P25 – expensive, limited data, limited coverage
• 2012 – Middle Class Tax Relief & Job Creation Act
• First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet)
• LTE; 700 MHz (2x10 MHz); $US 7 billion
• 4 years of red tape, documents & consultations
• Ongoing RFP extended to May 31 – will anyone bid?
• Many challenges ahead. The right model?

UK: Airwave > ESMCP/ESN
• Airwave – nationwide TETRA roll-out (2001-2005)
• A network dedicated to public safety
• Coverage of over 99% UK land-mass including remote areas
• 3,500+ base stations; 300,000+ users from hundreds of orgs.
• Private monopoly
• Full interoperability of all services
• Emergency PTT every 6 seconds
• Royal weddings; Olympics; riots etc.
• Austerity politics – UK Coalition Govt. from 2010 onwards
• ESMCP/ESN: Demand for a “better, cheaper, smarter” solution – based on commercial LTE
• Home Office/Cabinet Office - Reduce £450 million annual bill
• No dedicated spectrum; no dedicated network; no Government ownership

ESMCP/ESN – Latest situation
• Lot 1 (Delivery Partner/Project Management) contract awarded in August 2015 to KBR (assisted by a
number of consultants such as Arup, Mason Advisory)
• Motorola Solutions awarded Lot 2 contract (User Services) in December 2015
• EE awarded key Lot 3 contract (Resilient, nationwide mobile network) in December 2015
• Airwave sues UK Government in December 2015
• BT completed acquisition of EE in early 2016
• Motorola Solutions completed Airwave acquisition in February 2016
• Airwave drops law-suit against UK Government in February 2016
• Motorola Solutions announces in quarterly analyst call in February 2016 that Airwave contracts
extended until end-2019
• Ambitious time-lines for migration of 300,000 subscriber units, 45,000 vehicles & 230 control rooms
likely to be relaxed over the coming months & years

Convergence or divergence of models?
• Lots & lots of options
• The good, the bad & the ugly
• Dedicated, shared, commercial spectrum
• GOGO, GOCO, COCO, MNO, NO GO!
• Timescales; risk appetite; hybrid; LMR switch-off?
• Need for more research on models?
• Network of networks?
• Cost of (not) having multiple networks?
• Be careful who you copy? Be careful who you believe?

Moving towards the 5G Era
• We genuinely appear to be on the cusp of significant societal change
• We appear to be reaching the limits of the current Model
• Proliferation of crises
• Increased complexity of the systems we depend on
• Is technology the problem or the solution?
• Are we on the verge of:
– the mother of all depressions?
– a new Golden Age (5G Era)?
• Answers on a digital postcard, please!

What is 5G?
• We’ve had 2G, 3G & 4G, so now it’s time for 5G
• Big business; Big sporting events; Big sponsors; Big bucks; race “to be the first”
• Global suppliers, operators & their Governments (President/PM’s new clothes!)
• IMT-2020, 3GPP R14,15,16, 5GPPP, NGMNA, 5GIC, 5G Americas, Horizon 2020, Google
SkyBender…
• Fixed-mobile convergence; Mobile Edge Computing; SDN/NFV evolution
• 5GIC’s Rahim Tafazolli: “The perception of infinite capacity”
• Very high speeds; very reliable networks; massive number of connections (network slicing)
Trade-offs/flexible, smart architectures
• The need for real demand; the need for real services - Public safety first? Mission-critical?
• 5G is an opportunity – 5G is also real – but only if we are prepared to face up to
uncomfortable truths about where we have come from & where we are going
• What will be 5G’s iPhone moment?? Something related to critical communications??

Critical communications at the edge
• Coverage, availability, reliability
• Government Universal Service Obligation
• Is connectivity a basic human right?
• Reversal of privatisation? (New economy)
• New forms of Public-private partnerships (PPP)
• Truly mobile networks? Body area sensor networks (IEEE)
• Revolution or evolution? (Technical or social?)
• Military grade > civilian grade?
• Who can deliver the universal coverage that 5G Era will demand?
• Laws of physics, laws of nature & human laws working together
• Past-in-the-present, present-in-the –present & future-in-the-present
• The end of an either-or mentality?

2G to 5G – how many steps?
• As many as needed – a long & winding road
• Test, test & test again
• Lots & lots of moving parts
• We must get “5G Era” right
• All stakeholders must be properly consulted
• Sensible time-lines without limiting ambition
• Government accountability & safety nets
• We will intuitively know/feel if we get it right or wrong
• Exciting new technologies that need to interconnect to create future society
“Dad, are we there yet?”

Global Critical Alliance
• Focus on “critical communications” past, present & future
• A global solution to a global problem
• Start small, stay nimble
• Target global “5G Era” suppliers to explain the importance of “mission-critical”
• Playing the long game
• Not competing against existing bodies; search for best practice & education of
authorities & key decision-makers
• Background work under way – further announcements during 2016 (maybe even as
early as Critical Communications World in Amsterdam?)
• All suggestions welcome – pressure from real users will be key

Global Critical Index
• Quixoticity’s main “top secret” research focus at the moment
• Need to rank public safety authorities globally
• Need to rank global suppliers in the move of critical communications from 2G > 5G
• Definitely not just about “Citius, Altius, Fortius”
• Smarter, sustainable, common sense, best-practice strategies
• Encourage innovation in new community models based on security, integration,
interoperability, cooperation & funding
• I haven’t talked to Paul yet, but CommsConnect Melbourne in November might be a
good time for launch!
• Once again, all suggestions welcome – input from real users will be key

The pursuit of best practice
• Each region is different
• Each country is different
• Global standards implemented locally
• As broad a vision as possible
• No limits to ambition – intergenerational interaction
• As many experiences/scenarios as possible
• Critical thinking
• Lots of data – big data – data analytics
• Ask the right questions in the first place
• Make sure you understand what you are measuring
• Qualitative data as important as quantitative data

The importance of common sense
• We must never lose sight of basic needs
• Public safety
• The common good
• Cohesive society
• Representative Government
• An innate sense of right & wrong; true & false
• 5G Era/digital age must be about transparency & accountability

The beginning of a new time
• “Digital” will change our global society & economy
• Don’t be afraid of change, embrace it…
• …but not change for change’s sake!
• It will take longer than many think…
• & have wider consequences than any of us can possibly imagine
• “The king is dead; long live the king.”
• Don’t believe everything a consultant tells you…
• STAY YOUNG AT HEART, STAY QUIXOTIC!

Would you like to help bring the future into the present?
For more in-depth analysis & commentary
on the critical communications landscape, please contact:
Peter Clemons
Founder, Quixoticity Ltd.
9 Pine Grove, Penenden Heath
Maidstone, Kent. ME14 2AJ. UK
+44-7951-289934
peter@quixoticity.com
Skype: peterclemons
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/peter-clemons-041845

MAGAZINE PARTNER ORGANISED BY
www.comms-connect.co.nz
Conference materials available soon at
www.comms-connect.co.nz
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
www.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ #CommsNZ

Critical Communications at the Edge - 15-04-16 - v1

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