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by Pascal Roubides
Instructional Design:
What Does the Future Hold and Can We Get There?
Pascal Roubides
Educator, researcher, instructional designer, business executive
Academic Background
• Applied Mathematics & Mathematical Physics
• Aerospace, Mechanical Engineering & Eng. Science & Mechanics
• Educational Science
• Instructional Design & Technology
IDT Background
• Course developer since 1999
• Training for academia & government
• eLearning business initiatives
Introduction
Instructional Design Defined
• Considered a “newer” professional field even
though activities revolving structuring learning
have been present since antiquity
• Present day definitions of the term include the
ability to use technology to analyze, design,
develop, implement, and evaluate learning and
performance-inducing processes and resources
EDUCATION
TECHNOLOGY
Basis of Instructional Design
Leveraging the Past & Present
Leveraging the Past & Present
Leveraging the Past & Present
Learning Theory To-day
Instructional Design Models To-day
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
ADDIE
Dick, Carey, & Carey
ASSURE
Gagné & Briggs
Rapid Prototyping
Evaluate & Revise
Morrison, Ross, & Kemp
ISD
ARCS
EOD
Gerlach & Ely
Hall, Watkins, & Eller
Hannafin and Peck
Layers of Necessity Model
Jerrold Kemp
R2D2
Smith & Ragan
Eternal, Synergistic, & Developmental
Seels & Glasgow
Rothwell
Knirk & Gustafson
TranceFormational Learning
4C-ID
PADDIE
Multimodal
ERIC
Merrill's First Principles of Instruction
usage of various ID models
A Time of Transition…
Prevalent Learning Theories
• Single basic underlying principle: knowledge is
an objective that must be attained
• Differ only in the process of achieving learning:
– Behaviorism: learning is about a change in behavior
– Cognitivism: learning is a series of computer-like
inputs and outputs
– Constructivism: learners construct their own learning
based on their inner reality
Learning is Chaotic!
• Chaos: a state where “uncertainty dominates
and predictability breaks down”
• Social systems are “clearly non-linear, where
instability & unpredictability are inherent, and
where cause & effect are often a puzzling maze”
• Small perturbations of the initial conditions
present in the system can and will likely lead to
totally different outcomes, hence, everything is
connected to everything else.
Learning Theory 4 the Digital World?
• Distributed Knowledge (Downes, 2005) &
Connectivism (Siemens, 2005)
– Integrate principles explored by chaos, network,
complexity, and self-organization theories into a
coherent learning theory for the digital age
– Knowledge creation is emergent and iterative
• ID models
– 3P learning model by Chatti, Jarke, and Specht
– Multisphereverse machine integration concept by
Roubides
…Towards the Future
Digital Storytelling
May be the epitome of
constructivist ideology
combining technology tools
with communication and
collaboration of the
information being shared at
a formal or informal level
Simulation
• Reality-based
• Machine-based
• Skill-based
• Software-based
• Hardware-based
Gamification
• Game-design elements borrowed from the video
game industry and applied to other contexts
• Theme-based
• Software-based
• Reward-based
Gamification
• Pros: engagement, motivation, self-control, out-
of-the-box thinking, permission to fail
• Cons: time, cost, knowledge factor
Augmented Reality
Science fiction
or
just science?
Augmented Reality
• Merging of physical, three-dimensional world
reality and virtual, digitally created reality
Augmented Reality
• “With AR, educators’ dream of ubiquitous
learning can become a reality”
m-learning Opportunity
• Cisco 2014 report:
– “by the end of 2014, the number of mobile-connected
devices will exceed the number of people on earth”
– Expected number of mobile devices worldwide in
2018 will reach 10 billion, surpassing the world’s
projected population of 7.6 billion by >30%
– Expected monthly mobile data traffic forecasted to
grow by >500% in the years between 2014 & 2018
North America Western Europe
Central and
Eastern Europe
Latin America Asia Pacific
Middle East and
Africa
2013 65% 45% 15% 14% 17% 10%
2018 93% 83% 61% 55% 47% 36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
REGIONAL SHARE OF MOBILE DEVICES
2.6
4.4
7.0
10.8
15.9
24.3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MONTHLY MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC
(in Exabytes, 1018)
m-learning
• How is this tremendous growth in mobile device
use translate to growth in learning?
• And how can learning anywhere
be captured and accounted for?
SCORM  x-API
• SCORM: Shareable Content Object Reference
Model (decade old)
• x-API: fuses a decade of collective e-learning
experiences with a decade of technological
advances
x-API
m-learning [x-API] u-learning
• The path to ubiquitous learning must necessarily
go through m-learning
– Anywhere (mobile)
– Anytime (timeless)
– Connected
• Capturing such learning experiences is the last
piece to the puzzle…
How to get to the future?
Could we already be living in it…?
Thank you!
Questions/Discussion?

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Future of IDT Presentation

  • 1. by Pascal Roubides Instructional Design: What Does the Future Hold and Can We Get There?
  • 2. Pascal Roubides Educator, researcher, instructional designer, business executive Academic Background • Applied Mathematics & Mathematical Physics • Aerospace, Mechanical Engineering & Eng. Science & Mechanics • Educational Science • Instructional Design & Technology IDT Background • Course developer since 1999 • Training for academia & government • eLearning business initiatives Introduction
  • 3. Instructional Design Defined • Considered a “newer” professional field even though activities revolving structuring learning have been present since antiquity • Present day definitions of the term include the ability to use technology to analyze, design, develop, implement, and evaluate learning and performance-inducing processes and resources
  • 9. Instructional Design Models To-day 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% ADDIE Dick, Carey, & Carey ASSURE Gagné & Briggs Rapid Prototyping Evaluate & Revise Morrison, Ross, & Kemp ISD ARCS EOD Gerlach & Ely Hall, Watkins, & Eller Hannafin and Peck Layers of Necessity Model Jerrold Kemp R2D2 Smith & Ragan Eternal, Synergistic, & Developmental Seels & Glasgow Rothwell Knirk & Gustafson TranceFormational Learning 4C-ID PADDIE Multimodal ERIC Merrill's First Principles of Instruction usage of various ID models
  • 10. A Time of Transition…
  • 11. Prevalent Learning Theories • Single basic underlying principle: knowledge is an objective that must be attained • Differ only in the process of achieving learning: – Behaviorism: learning is about a change in behavior – Cognitivism: learning is a series of computer-like inputs and outputs – Constructivism: learners construct their own learning based on their inner reality
  • 12. Learning is Chaotic! • Chaos: a state where “uncertainty dominates and predictability breaks down” • Social systems are “clearly non-linear, where instability & unpredictability are inherent, and where cause & effect are often a puzzling maze” • Small perturbations of the initial conditions present in the system can and will likely lead to totally different outcomes, hence, everything is connected to everything else.
  • 13. Learning Theory 4 the Digital World? • Distributed Knowledge (Downes, 2005) & Connectivism (Siemens, 2005) – Integrate principles explored by chaos, network, complexity, and self-organization theories into a coherent learning theory for the digital age – Knowledge creation is emergent and iterative • ID models – 3P learning model by Chatti, Jarke, and Specht – Multisphereverse machine integration concept by Roubides
  • 15. Digital Storytelling May be the epitome of constructivist ideology combining technology tools with communication and collaboration of the information being shared at a formal or informal level
  • 16. Simulation • Reality-based • Machine-based • Skill-based • Software-based • Hardware-based
  • 17. Gamification • Game-design elements borrowed from the video game industry and applied to other contexts • Theme-based • Software-based • Reward-based
  • 18. Gamification • Pros: engagement, motivation, self-control, out- of-the-box thinking, permission to fail • Cons: time, cost, knowledge factor
  • 20. Augmented Reality • Merging of physical, three-dimensional world reality and virtual, digitally created reality
  • 21. Augmented Reality • “With AR, educators’ dream of ubiquitous learning can become a reality”
  • 22. m-learning Opportunity • Cisco 2014 report: – “by the end of 2014, the number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth” – Expected number of mobile devices worldwide in 2018 will reach 10 billion, surpassing the world’s projected population of 7.6 billion by >30% – Expected monthly mobile data traffic forecasted to grow by >500% in the years between 2014 & 2018
  • 23. North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa 2013 65% 45% 15% 14% 17% 10% 2018 93% 83% 61% 55% 47% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% REGIONAL SHARE OF MOBILE DEVICES
  • 24. 2.6 4.4 7.0 10.8 15.9 24.3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MONTHLY MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC (in Exabytes, 1018)
  • 25. m-learning • How is this tremendous growth in mobile device use translate to growth in learning? • And how can learning anywhere be captured and accounted for?
  • 26. SCORM  x-API • SCORM: Shareable Content Object Reference Model (decade old) • x-API: fuses a decade of collective e-learning experiences with a decade of technological advances
  • 27.
  • 28. x-API
  • 29. m-learning [x-API] u-learning • The path to ubiquitous learning must necessarily go through m-learning – Anywhere (mobile) – Anytime (timeless) – Connected • Capturing such learning experiences is the last piece to the puzzle…
  • 30. How to get to the future? Could we already be living in it…?

Editor's Notes

  1. Percentage of ID model usage in a study by Soto (2013) Stagnant!
  2. Chaos: Kiel & Elliot (1996)
  3. Yuen, Yaoyuneyong, & Johnson (2011)
  4. Yuen, Yaoyuneyong, & Johnson (2011)