prepared by NON-TAX Revenue Directorate – Directorate General of Budget, the Republic of Indonesia

1. BUDGET PREPARATION FOR
FUEL SUBSIDY
NON-TAX Revenue Directorate – Directorate General of Budget

2. Fuel Subsidy Policy
Ensure the availability of fuel for domestic use
Reduce the subsidy amount to lessen the
burden for state finance by:
Adjusting the domestic retail price for fuel per 24 May
2008 close to administered price based on Minister of
Energy and Mineral Resources Num.16/2008
Reduce the type of subsidized Fuel from 5 type in 2005
into 3 type only i.e.: diesel oil, kerosene and gasoline
while Minyak Diesel and Minyak Bakar is adjusted with
market price

3. Fuel Subsidy Policy.. continued
Limitation of subsidized user:
 Households
 Small-size Industries
 Traditional Fisheries
 Public Transportations
 Public Services
Continuing Energy conversion, from Gasoline to LPG
Distribution of subsidized fuel through closed system and
focus
Energy Sources Diversification i.e: gas, coal, geothermal,
water and fuel from plants
Distribution Cost Efficiency through reduction of alpha
number

4. Determine the Subsidy Cost
1. Cost and Fee
2. Public Service Obligation

5. FUEL SUBSIDY MODEL WITH COST AND FEE
BASIS
1. Net Revenue from Petroleum
• Is the positive difference from net fuel sales less fuel cost
• (Petrol Sales – Petrol Production Cost) > 0
2. Fuel Subsidy
• Is the negative difference from net fuel sales les fuel cost
• (Petrol Sales – Petrol Production Cost) < 0

6. FUEL SUBSIDY MODEL WITH COST
AND FEE …….continued
Main Component of Fuel Cost and Sales
 I. Cost of Fuel Supply and Product
1. Crude oil Pro-rate PERTAMINA and Contractor
2. Crude oil inkind PERTAMINA and Contractor
3. Purchase of Crude oil and gas
4. Purchase of Product
5. Variation of Crude oil and product stock
6. (Reducing Factors) - Non Fuel
 II. Operating Cost
1. Refinery
2. Distribution
3. Marine Transportation
4. Interest
5. General:Head Office
6. Depreciation
 III. Sales and Self usage of Fuel
 IV. Fuel Subsidy and or Fuel Net Income

7. BIAYA BBM
BIAYA BBM
HASIL PENJUALAN
HASIL PENJUALAN BIAYA OPERASI BIAYA PENYEDIAAN MINYAK MENTAH DAN PRODUK
(VOL X HARGA)
(VOL X HARGA)
BIAYA MINYAK MENTAH KONTRAKTOR
PENGOLAHAN PRORATA PERTAMINA
MINYAK MENTAH
BIAYA
PREMIUM M. TANAH INKIND KONTRAKTOR
DISTRIBUSI
PERTAMINA
BIAYA
PEMB. M. MENTAH
M. DIESEL M. SOLAR
ANGKUTAN LAUT •IMPOR LBM /
BIAYA •DALAM NEGERI
(SUBSIDI) BBM
BUNGA
M. BAKAR
BIAYA PEMB. PRODUK
KANTOR PUSAT • IMPOR
• DALAM NEGERI
BIAYA
PENYUSUTAN
(dikurangi)
(dikurangi/ditambah)
STOCK VARIANCE
Subsidy Calculation
MARGIN PEMEGANG
PPN PBBKB
POMPA
(dikurangi)
NILAI PRODUK SURPLUS
Cost and Fee Scheme

8. Determine the Subsidy Cost, based on
Public Service Obligation Scheme
Based on the conclusion made in Budget Comitte’s High
Level Meeting with Minister of Finance and Bank Indonesia
concerning State Budget Proposal and Financial Note for
2006, it is agreed that Start from Fiscal Year 2006, subsidy
cost determined by new scheme, to replace the previous
cost + fee scheme (based on agreement between
government and parliament, Oct 2005)
The new formula, introduced since FY 2006
[(Fuel Retail Price - Tax) – Fuel Benchmark Price] x
Projection Consumption Volume

9. Determine the Subsidy Cost, based on Public
Service Obligation Scheme
Note :
• Fuel Retail Price is Domestic Retail Price per litre
• Tax includes VAT Motor-Vehicle Tax
• Benchmark Price is Price calculated based on MOPS plus Distribution Cost and Margin
• Benchmark = MOPS + alpha
• Alpha = distribution cost + margin
• MOPS = Mid Oil Platt’s Singapore, Singapore oil fuel market price

10. Parameters in Calculating Fuel
Subsidy Within PSO Scheme
1. ICP = Estimation of Indonesian Crude Oil Price
2. Projection of Exchange Rate
3. Projection the type and the volume certain fuel
product to be subsidized
4. Retail Price for Certain type of Fuel Product
5. α (alpha) = Distribution Cost and Margin
6. Projection of MOPS change/delta

11. DIAGRAM PENETAPAN PERKIRAAN
SUBSIDI JENIS BBM TERTENTU
Berdasarkan koordinasi
BPH Migas
Depkeu
bersama
Depkeu
KOMISI XI
Bank Indonesia
+ DPR-RI
+ KOMISI VII DPR-RI
DESDM Bappenas
 Perkiraan volume BBM yang disubsidi
 Nilai tukar (kisaran)
 Jenis BBM yang disubsidi
 Perkiraan Volume LPG atau setara volume minyak tanah yang disubstitusi
ke LPG

SUBSIDI BBM
Harga Minyak Mentah (kisaran)
Panitia Anggaran
Pemerintah +
DPR-RI
1. Penetapan :
a. Volume dan jenis BBM yang disubsidi serta volume minyak tanah yang disubstitusi ke LPG
b. Harga Minyak Mentah (kisaran)
c. Nilai tukar (kisaran)
2. Besaran alpha BBM (biaya distribusi dan margin) dibahas dalam Panja  DESDM yang menyampaikan presentasi
3. Berdasarkan angka 1 dan 2, Departemen ESDM dan Departemen Keuangan membuat perhitungan besarnya perhitungan subsidi BBM

12. DIAGRAM OF OIL FUEL SUBSIDY CALCULATION
Harga Jual Eceran BBM Transportasi, Pelayanan
Harga Patokan
Umum, Usaha Kecil dan
Alpha (biaya distribusi dan
MOPS Usaha Perikanan
+ margin)
Premium Premium
Delta MOPS Rumah Tangga dan Usaha
ICP Minyak Tanah Minyak Tanah Kecil
Transportasi dan
Biaya Pelayanan UmumUsaha
Minyak Solar Minyak Solar
pengolahan Kecil dan Usaha
Perikanan
CRUDE di kilang
Antara lain : biaya tenaga kerja, depresiasi, bunga,
asuransi, biaya pengangkutan
Product Konsumen

13. FUEL RETAIL PRICE
Harga Jual BBM Lama Harga Jual BBM Baru
Jenis BBM (Sesuai Perpres No. (Sesuai Permen ESDM No.
55/2005 jo Perpres No. 16/2008)
9/2006)
1. Premium *) 4.500 6.000
2. Minyak Tanah **) 2.000 2.500
3. Minyak Solar *) 4.300 5.500
*) Termasuk Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) dan Pajak Bahan Bakar Kendaraan Bermotor (PBBKB) **) Termasuk PPN
Berlaku sejak tanggal 24 Mei 2008 Pukul
00.00 wib.

14. FUEL AND LNG SUBSIDY CALCULATION FOR FISCAL YEAR 2008 AND
2009
No. Keterangan 2008 2009
APBN APBN-P Proyeksi Skenario
Parameter :
a. Harga MM Indonesia (US$/bbl) 60,00 95,00 110,00 120,00
b. Nilai Tukar (Rp./US$1) 9.100,00 9.100,00 9.000,00 9.100,00
c. Volume BBM (KL) 35.836.525 35.537.746 35.696.631 38.854.448
- Premium 16.950.000 16.976.292 16.470.000 20.444.354
- Minyak Tanah (Kerosene) 7.886.525 7.561.454 8.526.631 5.804.911
- Minyak Solar 11.000.000 11.000.000 10.700.000 12.605.183
d. Vol. Mitan yg disubstitusi ke LPG (kg) 1.144.019.930 1.144.019.930 286.920.188 1.600.000.000
(setara dengan KL) 2.013.475 2.013.475 503.369 4.000.000
e. Alpha BBM (%) 13,50% 9,00% 9,00% 9.00 (fixed US$100)
(dalam Rp. Miliar)
1. Subsidi BBM (17.478,31) (114.646,65) (126.539,07) (133.942,75)
a. Premium (3.267,80) (44.048,54) (44.238,67) (56.159,28)
b. Minyak Tanah (Kerosene) (10.049,07) (37.949,12) (47.777,51) (34.950,13)
c. Minyak Solar (4.161,44) (32.649,00) (34.522,89) (42.833,34)
2. Subsidi LPG (3.721,44) (9.565,27) (2.991,54) (19.285,16)
3. Subsidi BBM dan LPG (1+2) (21.199,75) (124.211,92) (129.530,61) (153.227,91)
4. Kekurangan TA 2007
a. Premium - (689,71) (689,71) (689,71)
b. Minyak Tanah (Kerosene) - (742,44) (742,44) (742,43)
c. Minyak Solar - (1.022,15) (1.022,15) (1.022,15)
d. Sub Jumlah (a+b+c) - (2.454,30) (2.454,30) (2.454,29)
e. LPG - (149,93) (149,93) -
f. Jumlah (d+e) - (2.604,23) (2.604,23) (2.454,29)
5. Jumlah (3+4) (21.199,75) (126.816,15) (132.134,84) (155.682,20)
Catatan :
1. Delta MOPS adalah periode Januari s.d Desember 2007.
2. Kekurangan subsidi BBM dan LPG TA 2007 secara keseluruhan berjumlah Rp5.058,53 miliar (unaudited).
3. H arg a jual B B M s ebag ai berikut : 1 J an-23 Mei 2008 24 Mei s .d s ekarang
- P remium 4.500,00 6.000,00
- Minyak T anah 2.000,00 2.500,00
- Minyak S olar 4.300,00 5.500,00

15. FUEL SUBSIDY PATTERN YEAR 2003-2005 ( COST ‘N FEE SCHEME)
Tahun
No. Keterangan 2003 2004 2005
APBN APBN-P Audit APBN APBN-P Audit APBN APBN-P I APBN-P II Audit
Perhitungan Subsidi BBM
(dalam Rp. Miliar)
1. Hasil Penjualan Bersih 76.783,69 76.719,57 76.807,08 78.121,10 78.058,40 84.149,50 79.278,93 98.986,93 139.085,44
2. Jumlah Biaya Pokok BBM 89.993,74 101.231,68 107.673,40 92.648,24 141.141,30 160.923,79 98.279,35 175.501,85 243.862,41
3. Jumlah (Subsidi BBM)/LBM (1-2) (13.210,06) (24.512,11) (30.866,33) (14.527,14) (63.082,90) (76.774,29) (19.000,42) (76.514,92) 89,194.00 *) (104.776,97)
Parameter :
1. Volume penjualan BBM (ribu KL)
a. Premium 13.956,86 13.916,94 14.581,54 14.470,91 15.056,00 16.452,58 15.173,45 17.207,22 17.207,22 17.515,25
b. Kerosene 11.841,72 11.750,48 11.800,49 11.577,02 11.594,00 11.936,20 10.503,13 10.476,88 10.476,88 11.403,84
c. Minyak Solar 25.612,20 24.508,90 24.118,66 25.396,40 25.274,00 27.468,06 26.296,18 26.373,36 26.373,36 27.896,44
d. Minyak Diesel 1.645,51 1.467,24 1.271,55 1.395,79 1.345,00 1.222,95 1.296,71 736,63 736,63 1.000,07
e. Minyak Bakar 7.256,02 6.936,35 6.404,57 7.300,00 6.365,00 6.036,31 6.364,87 4.840,28 4.840,28 5.202,13
f. Jumlah 60.312,31 58.579,90 58.176,82 60.140,12 59.634,00 63.116,10 59.634,34 59.634,37 59.634,37 63.017,73
2. Harga MM Indonesia/ICP (US$/bbl) 22,00 27,50 28,77 22,00 36,00 37,58 24,00 45,00 56,58 53,40
3. Nilai Tukar Rp per US$1 9.000 8.500 8.551 a) 8.600 8.900 8.891 8.600 9.300 9.800 9.662
8.424 b)
Catatan :
a) Nilai tukar untuk tanggal 1 Januari s.d 16 September 2003
b) Nilai tukar untuk tanggal 17 September s.d 31 Desember 2003
Hasil audit exclude koreksi tahun lalu.

16. FUEL SUBSIDY PATTERN YEAR 2006-2008 (PSO SCHEME)
Tahun
No. Keterangan 2006 2007 2008
APBN APBN-P Real. Pembyr. Audit APBN APBN-P Revisi Real. Pembyr. s.d Perk. Real. APBN APBN-P
(Unaudited) Pagu 25 Des (unaudited) (Unaudited)
A. Subsidi BBM
a. Premium (9.333,43) (20.966,37) (19.759,07) (12.014,93) (14.528,34) (13.131,18) (26.384,74) (25.287,12) (26.666,54) (7.868,52) (44.738,25)
b. Minyak Tanah (29.939,38) (29.984,75) (31.578,69) (34.084,49) (31.209,30) (31.745,14) (40.509,86) (39.450,17) (40.935,04) (24.197,11) (38.691,55)
c. Minyak Solar (15.002,87) (13.260,96) (12.874,32) (13.403,42) (14.278,91) (10.163,89) (21.179,73) (19.055,03) (21.099,33) (10.020,30) (33.671,15)
d. Jumlah (a+b+c) (54.275,67) (64.212,08) (64.212,08) (59.502,84) (60.016,55) (55.040,21) (88.074,33) (83.792,32) (88.700,91) (42.085,93) (117.100,95)
B. Subsidi LPG (1.821,35) (564,04) (125,91) - (149,93) (3.721,44) (9.715,21)
C. Jumlah (A+B) (54.275,67) (64.212,08) (64.212,08) (59.502,84) (61.837,90) (55.604,25) (88.200,24) (83.792,32) (88.850,84) (45.807,37) (126.816,15)
Parameter :
1. Vol. penjualan BBM (ribu KL)
a. Premium 17.080 17.000 16.770 16.807 17.000 16.582 17.645 17.599 17.930 16.950 16.976
b. Kerosene 10.000 9.900 10.014 9.959 8.912 9.591 9.787 9.689 9.852 7.887 7.561
c. Minyak Solar 14.498 11.000 11.037 10.667 11.000 9.858 10.812 10.150 10.884 11.000 11.000
d. Minyak Diesel
e. Minyak Bakar
f. Jumlah 41.578 37.900 37.821 37.433 36.912 36.031 38.244 37.437 38.665 35.837 35.538
2. Vol. Mitan ke LPG (kg) 567.767.000 181.274.250 20.638.836 - 21.498.189 1.144.019.930 1.144.019.930
setara dengan ribu KL 988 319 36 - 38 2.013.475 2.013.475
3. ICP (US$/bbl) 57,00 64,00 63,80 64,26 63,00 60,00 72,59 72,31 72,31 60,00 95,00
4. Nilai Tukar Rp per US$1 9.900 9.300 9.123 9.119 9.300 9.050 9.125 9.093 9.094 9.100 9.100

17. CHART OF FUEL SUBSIDY AND VOLUME YEAR 2003-2008
120.000 70.000
60.000
100.000
50.000
80.000
40.000
60.000
30.000
40.000
20.000
20.000
10.000
- -
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *) 2008 *)
Nilai Subsidi APBN (Rp. Miliar) Nilai Subsidi APBN-P (Rp. Miliar) Nilai Subsidi Hasil Audit (Rp. Miliar)
Volume BBM APBN (ribu KL) Volume BBM APBN-P (ribu KL) Volume BBM Hasil Audit (ribu KL)

18. PROJECTION FOR OIL FUEL AND LPG SUBSIDY YEAR 2010-2012
(Rp. Miliar)
(MTEF)
No. Keterangan 2010 2011 2012
Subsidi BBM
1. Premium (45.724,39) (47.448,58) (58.245,28) (60.105,57) (47.574,04) (49.367,98) (60.601,43) (62.536,97) (48.525,52) (50.355,34) (61.813,46) (63.787,71)
2. Minyak Tanah (22.990,93) (23.339,18) (25.294,62) (25.667,92) (13.421,82) (13.625,13) (14.766,69) (14.984,62) (4.173,05) (4.236,26) (4.591,19) (4.658,95)
3. Minyak Solar (42.562,80) (43.720,04) (50.293,98) (51.535,25) (44.265,31) (45.468,83) (52.305,74) (53.596,66) (46.921,23) (48.196,97) (55.444,08) (56.812,46)
4. Jumlah (1+2+3) (111.278,12) (114.507,80) (133.833,89) (137.308,74) (105.261,17) (108.461,94) (127.673,86) (131.118,25) (99.619,80) (102.788,57) (121.848,74) (125.259,12)
5. Subsidi LPG Tabung 3 Kg (21.710,45) (22.021,29) (25.055,92) (25.403,12) (27.917,95) (28.317,67) (32.219,96) (32.666,44) (34.125,45) (34.614,04) (39.384,01) (39.929,75)
6. Jumlah (4+5) (132.988,57) (136.529,09) (158.889,81) (162.711,86) (133.179,13) (136.779,61) (159.893,82) (163.784,68) (133.745,26) (137.402,61) (161.232,74) (165.188,87)
7. Kekurangan Tahun 2009 (1.500,00) (1.500,00) (1.500,00) (1.500,00)
8. Jumlah (6+7) (134.488,57) (138.029,09) (160.389,81) (164.211,86) (133.179,13) (136.779,61) (159.893,82) (163.784,68) (133.745,26) (137.402,61) (161.232,74) (165.188,87)
Parameter :
a. Harga MM Indonesia (US$/bbl) 110,00 110,00 120,00 120,00 110,00 110,00 120,00 120,00 110,00 110,00 120,00 120,00
b. Nilai Tukar (Rp./US$1) 9.200 9.300 9.200 9.300 9.200 9.300 9.200 9.300 9.200 9.300 9.200 9.300
c. Volume BBM (KL) 38.982.255 38.982.255 38.982.255 38.982.255 38.734.972 38.734.972 38.734.972 38.734.972 38.417.395 38.417.395 38.417.395 38.417.395
- Premium 21.639.372 21.639.372 21.639.372 21.639.372 22.514.733 22.514.733 22.514.733 22.514.733 22.965.028 22.965.028 22.965.028 22.965.028
- Minyak Tanah (Kerosene) 3.981.389 3.981.389 3.981.389 3.981.389 2.324.286 2.324.286 2.324.286 2.324.286 722.656 722.656 722.656 722.656
- Minyak Solar 13.361.494 13.361.494 13.361.494 13.361.494 13.895.953 13.895.953 13.895.953 13.895.953 14.729.711 14.729.711 14.729.711 14.729.711
d. Vol. Mitan yg disubstitusi ke LPG (kg) 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000
(setara dengan KL) 5.601.630 5.601.630 5.601.630 5.601.630 7.203.260 7.203.260 7.203.260 7.203.260 8.804.890 8.804.890 8.804.890 8.804.890
e. Besaran alpha (%) 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00

19. Fuel Volume Basis for 2010-2012 (MTEF)
2010
Estimation of fuel consumption for APBN calculation = 38.982.255 KL (kilo
liter), with details as follows:
1. Gasoline (Premium) : 21.639.372 KL
2. Kerosene : 3.981.389 KL
3. Diesel Oil : 13.361.494 KL
Assumptions:
 Growth Elasticity projected to be 0,9% (DG Oil and Gas)
 Estimated economic growth 6,5% - 6,7% (DG Oil and Gas)
 Estimated Inflation 5,5% - 6% (DG Oil and Gas)
 Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) = US$ 110 - 120/barrel (DG Oil and Gas)
 Estimated exchange rate Rp 9.200,-/US$ - Rp. 9.300,-/US$ (DG Oil and Gas)
 Conversion of Kerosene to LPG = 1.601.630 KL (PT PERTAMINA)
- Control card from Inquiries of Subsidized Fuel Consumers in 2008 in 102 districs/cities
approximately 277.365 with saving assumption of 19% (cencus in 2007) (BPH Migas)

20. WITH ASSUMPTIONS…(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities growth estimated to
be 6%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a consumers usage shifting to a subsidized gasoline
• Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
• Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
• Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
• Closed Distribution Monitoring System using control card in year 2010 estimated to be 83.210 families or around 30%
Diesel Oil
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities, growth estimated to
be 6%

21. Fuel Volume Basis for 2010-2012
2011
Estimation of fuel consumption for APBN calculation = 38.734.972 KL (kilo liter), with details as follows:
1. Gasoline (Premium) : 22.514.733 KL
2. Kerosene : 2.324.286 KL
3. Diesel Oil : 13.895.953 KL
Assumptions:
Growth Elasticity projected to be 0,8% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated economic growth 6,7% - 6,9% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated Inflation 5% - 5,5% (DG Oil and Gas)
Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) = US$ 110 - 120/barrel (DG Oil and Gas)

22. WITH ASSUMPTIONS…(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities growth estimated to
be 4%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a consumers usage shifting to a subsidized gasoline
• Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
• Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
• Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
• Closed Distribution Monitoring System using control card in year 2011 estimated to be 55.473 families or around 20%
Diesel Oil
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities, growth estimated to

23. Fuel Volume Basis for 2010-2012
2012
Estimation of fuel consumption for APBN calculation = 38.417.394 KL (kilo liter), with details as follows:
1. Gasoline (Premium) : 22.965.028 KL
2. Kerosene : 722.656 KL
3. Diesel Oil : 14.729.711 KL
Assumptions:
Growth Elasticity projected to be 0,7% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated economic growth 6,9% - 7,1% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated Inflation 5% - 5,5% (DG Oil and Gas)
Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) = US$ 110 - 120/barrel (DG Oil and Gas)

24. WITH ASSUMPTIONS…(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities growth estimated to
be 2%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a consumers usage shifting to a subsidized gasoline
• Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
• Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
• Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
Diesel Oil
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities, growth estimated to
be 6%
•

25. THANK YOU