1. SEPTEMBER 8-14, 2014
OAKLAND MAYORAL ELECTION SURVEY
220-4006-WT
n=712 LIKELY NOVERMBER 2014 VOTERS CITYWIDE
n=300 OVERSAMPLE INTERVIEWS IN COUNCIL DISTRICTS 2, 4, 6
MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR ±3.7% (95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL)
Hello, I'm ________ from F-M-Three, a public opinion research firm. We're conducting a survey about
issues that concern people in Oakland. I am not trying to sell you anything and I won’t ask for a donation of
any kind. May I please speak with _________? (MUST SPEAK WITH VOTER LISTED. VERIFY
THAT THE VOTER LIVES AT THE ADDRESS LISTED--OTHERWISE TERMINATE.)
(IF VOTER WISHES TO COMPLETE THE INTERVIEW IN SPANISH OR CHINESE, PLEASE
HAND OFF TO BILINGUAL INTERVIEWER)
A. Does anyone in this household work for a radio station, a television station, a newspaper, an elected
official, or as an active political campaign worker?
Yes/Don’t Know----------------------- TERMINATE
No ----------------------------------------------------100%
B. (T) Before we begin, I need to know if I have reached you on a cell phone, and if so, are you in a
place where you can talk safely without endangering yourself or others? (IF NOT ON A CELL
PHONE, ASK: “Do you own a cell phone?”)
Yes, cell and can talk safely -------------------------------- (ASK QC) -- 54%
Yes, cell but cannot talk safely --------------------------------- TERMINATE
No, not on cell, but own one ------------------------------- (ASK QC) -- 34%
No, not on cell and do not own one ---------------------- (SKIP QC) -- 12%
(DON’T READ) DK/NA/REFUSED------------------------- TERMINATE
(ASK QC ONLY IF CODES 1 OR 2 “OWN A CELL PHONE” IN QB)
C. (T) Would you say you use your cell phone to make and receive all of your phone calls, most of your
phone calls, do you use your cell phone and home landline phone equally, or do you mostly use your
home landline phone to make and receive calls?
All cell phone ------------------------------ 42%
Mostly cell phone-------------------------- 19%
Cell and landline equally ----------------- 25%
Mostly landline----------------------------- 14%
(DON’T READ) DK/NA------------------1%
2. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 2
(RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS)
NOW I WOULD LIKE TO ASK YOU A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ELECTION FOR MAYOR
IN THE CITY OF OAKLAND. AS YOU MAY KNOW, OAKLAND HAS A SYSTEM IN WHICH IN
ADDITION TO YOUR FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE, YOU MAY ALSO INDICATE A SECOND OR
THIRD CHOICE CANDIDATE. THIS NOVEMBER, THERE ARE 15 CANDIDATES FOR MAYOR
IN OAKLAND AND YOU CAN VOTE FOR UP TO THREE OF THEM. WITH THIS IN MIND…
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates
were… (READ CANDIDATE LIST IN RANDOM ORDER) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Toward
whom do you lean? (IF UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO NEXT QUESTION.)
Who, if anyone, would be your second choice for Mayor of Oakland? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED
OR TOLD NO SECOND CHOICE, ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME
ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ NAME OF FIRST CHOICE.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:)
“Would you lean toward one of the other candidates or would you have no second choice? (IF NO
SECOND CHOICE OR UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO NEXT QUESTION.)
What about your third choice? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED OR TOLD NO THIRD CHOICE,
ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ
NAMES OF FIRST OR SECOND CHOICES.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Would you lean
toward one of the other candidates or would you have no third choice?
[ ] Jason Anderson, Communications Director
[ ] Ken Houston, Contractor
[ ] Rebecca Kaplan, Oakland Councilmember At-Large
[ ] Saied Karamooz, Private Sector Executive
[ ] Peter Liu, Father, Businessman, Executive
[ ] Pat McCullough, Technician/Lawyer/Entrepreneur
[ ] Bryan Parker, Businessperson/University Trustee
[ ] Jean Quan, Mayor of Oakland
[ ] Courtney Ruby, Oakland City Auditor
[ ] Libby Schaaf, Oakland City Councilmember
[ ] Nancy Sidebotham, Tax Preparer
[ ] Dan Siegel, Civil Rights Attorney
[ ] Joe Tuman, Government/Law Professor
[ ] Charles Williams, Engineering Manager Administrator
[ ] Eric Wilson, Non-profit Employee
3. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 3
1st 2nd 3rd
Choice Choice Choice
TOTAL KAPLAN-------------------------------------------------------------------15%------- 8%------- 4%
Rebecca Kaplan -----------------------------------------------------------------------14%------- 7%------- 3%
(LEAN KAPLAN) -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2%------- 1%------- 1%
TOTAL QUAN-----------------------------------------------------------------------13%------- 6%------- 3%
Jean Quan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------11%------- 5%------- 2%
(LEAN QUAN)------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2%------- 1%------- 0%
TOTAL SCHAAF -------------------------------------------------------------------10%------- 5%------- 3%
Libby Schaaf---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9%------- 5%------- 3%
(LEAN SCHAAF) -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 1%
TOTAL TUMAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- 6%------- 4%------- 2%
Joe Tuman ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6%------- 3%------- 2%
(LEAN TUMAN) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 1%------- 0%
TOTAL SIEGEL --------------------------------------------------------------------- 5%------- 3%------- 2%
Dan Siegel ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4%------- 2%------- 2%
(LEAN SIEGEL)---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 0%
TOTAL PARKER-------------------------------------------------------------------- 4%------- 2%------- 2%
Bryan Parker --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4%------- 2%------- 2%
(LEAN PARKER) -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL RUBY------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2%------- 3%------- 1%
Courtney Ruby ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2%------- 3%------- 1%
(LEAN RUBY) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0%------- 1%------- 0%
TOTAL ANDERSON---------------------------------------------------------------- 2%------- 2%------- 2%
Jason Anderson------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2%------- 2%------- 2%
(LEAN ANDERSON) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL LIU--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 1%
Peter Liu -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 1%
(LEAN LIU) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL MCULLOUGH ------------------------------------------------------------ 1%------- 1%------- 1%
Pat McCullough------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1%------- 1%------- 1%
(LEAN MCCULLOUGH) ---------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL SIDEBOTHAM------------------------------------------------------------ 1%------- 1%------- 0%
Nancy Sidebotham--------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 0%
(LEAN SIDEBOTHAM) ------------------------------------------------------------ 0%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL WILLIAMS----------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 0%
Charles Williams----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 0%
(LEAN WILLIAMS)----------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
4. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 4
1st 2nd 3rd
Choice Choice Choice
(CONTINUED)
TOTAL WILSON -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 0%------- 0%
Eric Wilson ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 0%------- 0%
(LEAN WILSON) -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL HOUSTON------------------------------------------------------------------ 0%------- 2%------- 1%
Ken Houston---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 1%------- 1%
(LEAN HOUSTON)------------------------------------------------------------------ 0%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL KARAMOOZ -------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 1%------- 1%
Saied Karamooz------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0%------- 0%------- 1%
(LEAN KARAMOOZ) -------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
(DON’T READ) Other (SPECIFY_________________________) ----------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
(NO CHOICE) -----------------------------------------------------------------------N/A------ 51%------ 69%
(UNDECIDED/DON'T KNOW/NA) --------------------------------------------39%------- 9%------- 7%
2. Next, is there any candidate for Mayor of Oakland that you would never vote for? (DO NOT READ
LIST; MULTIPLE CHOICES ACCEPTED)
Jason Anderson ---------------------------------------------------- 3%
Ken Houston-------------------------------------------------------- 1%
Rebecca Kaplan ---------------------------------------------------- 3%
Saied Karamooz---------------------------------------------------- 1%
Peter Liu ------------------------------------------------------------ 1%
Pat McCullough---------------------------------------------------- 0%
Bryan Parker ------------------------------------------------------- 1%
Jean Quan ----------------------------------------------------------29%
Courtney Ruby ----------------------------------------------------- 0%
Libby Schaaf-------------------------------------------------------- 1%
Nancy Sidebotham------------------------------------------------- 1%
Dan Siegel ---------------------------------------------------------- 2%
Joe Tuman ---------------------------------------------------------- 1%
Charles Williams--------------------------------------------------- 1%
Eric Wilson --------------------------------------------------------- 0%
(NO ONE/COULD VOTE FOR ANY) ---------------------22%
(DON'T KNOW/NA) -------------------------------------------35%
(CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS 2, 4 & 6 ONLY)
NOW I WOULD LIKE TO ASK YOU A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ELECTION FOR CITY
COUNCIL IN YOUR AREA.
5. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 5
(CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT 2 ONLY)
3. In your area, there are five candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can
vote for up to three of them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City
Council if the candidates were… (READ CANDIDATE LIST IN RANDOM ORDER) (IF
UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Toward whom do you lean? (IF UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO
NEXT QUESTION.)
Who, if anyone, would be your second choice for City Council? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED OR
TOLD NO SECOND CHOICE, ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME
ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ NAME OF FIRST CHOICE.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:)
“Would you lean toward one of the other candidates or would you have no second choice? (IF NO
SECOND CHOICE OR UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO NEXT QUESTION.)
What about your third choice? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED OR TOLD NO THIRD CHOICE,
ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ
NAMES OF FIRST OR SECOND CHOICES.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Would you lean
toward one of the other candidates or would you have no third choice?
[ ] Kevin Blackburn, Housing Policy Advisor
[ ] Abel Guillen, Community College Trustee
[ ] Dana King, Retired Broadcast Journalist
[ ] Ken Maxey, Director Community Relations
[ ] Andrew Park, Public University Administrator
1st 2nd 3rd
Choice Choice Choice
TOTAL KING -----------------------------------------------------------------------13%------- 5%------- 3%
Dana King------------------------------------------------------------------------------11%------- 5%------- 3%
(LEAN KING)------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 1%
TOTAL GUILLEN------------------------------------------------------------------- 9%------- 5%------- 3%
Abel Guillen ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6%------- 4%------- 3%
(LEAN GUILLEN) ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3%------- 1%------- 0%
TOTAL BLACKBURN ------------------------------------------------------------- 7%------- 4%------- 2%
Kevin Blackburn ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 6%------- 4%------- 1%
(LEAN BLACKBURN)-------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 1%------- 1%
TOTAL PARK------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7%------- 3%------- 3%
Andrew Park --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6%------- 2%------- 3%
(LEAN PARK) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL MAXEY --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 4%------- 4%
Ken Maxey------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1%------- 4%------- 4%
(LEAN MAXEY) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
(DON’T READ) Other (SPECIFY_________________________) ----------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
(NO CHOICE) -----------------------------------------------------------------------N/A------ 74%------ 82%
(UNDECIDED/DON'T KNOW/NA) --------------------------------------------62%------- 6%------- 4%
6. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 6
(CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT 4 ONLY)
4. In your area, there are three candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you
can vote for up to three of them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for
City Council if the candidates were… (READ CANDIDATE LIST IN RANDOM ORDER) (IF
UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Toward whom do you lean? (IF UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO
NEXT QUESTION.)
Who, if anyone, would be your second choice for City Council? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED OR
TOLD NO SECOND CHOICE, ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME
ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ NAME OF FIRST CHOICE.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:)
“Would you lean toward one of the other candidates or would you have no second choice? (IF NO
SECOND CHOICE OR UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO NEXT QUESTION.)
Would you make NAME OF UNCHOOSEN CANDIDATE your third choice or would you have no
third choice?
[ ] Jill Broadhurst, Executive/Finance Director
[ ] Ann Campbell Washington, Appointed School Board Member
[ ] Paul Lim, Emergency Management Coordinator
1st 2nd 3rd
Choice Choice Choice
TOTAL BROADHURST-----------------------------------------------------------22%------- 7%------- 1%
Jill Broadhurst-------------------------------------------------------------------------19%------- 7%------- 0%
(LEAN BROADHURST)------------------------------------------------------------ 3%------- 1%------- 0%
TOTAL WASHINGTON ----------------------------------------------------------13%------- 6%------- 3%
Ann Campbell Washington ----------------------------------------------------------11%------- 5%------- 2%
(LEAN WASHINGTON)------------------------------------------------------------ 2%------- 1%------- 1%
TOTAL LIM -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 5%------- 8%
Paul Lim -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 5%------- 8%
(LEAN LIM)--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0%------- 0%------- 0%
(DON’T READ) Other (SPECIFY_________________________) ----------- 1%------- 0%------- 0%
(NO CHOICE) -----------------------------------------------------------------------N/A------ 75%------ 86%
(UNDECIDED/DON'T KNOW/NA) --------------------------------------------63%------- 7%------- 2%
7. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 7
(CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT 6 ONLY)
5. In your area, there are four candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you
can vote for up to three of them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for
City Council if the candidates were… (READ CANDIDATE LIST IN RANDOM ORDER) (IF
UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Toward whom do you lean? (IF UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO
NEXT QUESTION.)
Who, if anyone, would be your second choice for City Council? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED OR
TOLD NO SECOND CHOICE, ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME
ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ NAME OF FIRST CHOICE.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:)
“Would you lean toward one of the other candidates or would you have no second choice? (IF NO
SECOND CHOICE OR UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW, SKIP TO NEXT QUESTION.)
What about your third choice? (IF NOT VOLUNTEERED OR TOLD NO THIRD CHOICE,
ASK:) Would it be… (REREAD NAMES IN THE SAME ORDER, BUT DO NOT READ
NAMES OF FIRST OR SECOND CHOICES.) (IF UNDECIDED, ASK:) “Would you lean
toward one of the other candidates or would you have no third choice?
[ ] Desley Brooks, Incumbent
[ ] Michael Johnson, Administrator/Investor/Minister
[ ] James Moore, Commercial Corridor Manager
[ ] Shereda Nosakhare, Public Policy Analyst
1st 2nd 3rd
Choice Choice Choice
TOTAL BROOKS-------------------------------------------------------------------34%------- 4%------- 2%
Desley Brooks -------------------------------------------------------------------------30%------- 3%------- 2%
(LEAN BROOKS) -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3%------- 0%------- 0%
TOTAL JOHNSON -----------------------------------------------------------------10%------- 8%------- 4%
Michael Johnson ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 9%------- 6%------- 3%
(LEAN JOHNSON) ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1%------- 2%------- 1%
TOTAL NOSAKHARE ------------------------------------------------------------- 5%------- 8%------- 5%
Shereda Nosakhare -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4%------- 8%------- 5%
(LEAN NOSAKHARE) ------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 0%------- 1%
TOTAL MOORE--------------------------------------------------------------------- 4%------- 6%------- 6%
James Moore --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3%------- 6%------- 6%
(LEAN MOORE) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1%------- 0%------- 0%
(DON’T READ) Other (SPECIFY_________________________) ----------- 1%------- 0%------- 0%
(NO CHOICE) -----------------------------------------------------------------------N/A------ 65%------ 80%
(UNDECIDED/DON'T KNOW/NA) --------------------------------------------46%------ 10%------- 3%
8. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 8
(RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS)
I HAVE JUST A FEW MORE QUESTIONS, AND THEY
ARE FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES ONLY.
6. Are you or is any member of your family a member of a labor union or teacher’s union?
Yes, self ------------------------------------- 10%
Yes, family member ------------------------6%
Yes, both--------------------------------------2%
No -------------------------------------------- 81%
(DON’T READ) DK/NA/Refused -------1%
7. With which racial or ethnic group do you identify yourself: Hispanic or Latino; African American or
Black; Anglo or White; Asian or Pacific Islander; or some other ethnic or racial background?
Latino/Hispanic ---------------------------- 10%
African American/Black------------------ 28%
White ---------------------------------------- 42%
Asian/Pacific Islander--------------------- 10%
(MIXED RACE) ----------------------------3%
(OTHER) -------------------------------------3%
(DON’T READ) DK/NA/REFUSED ---3%
(ASK Q8 ONLY IF ASIAN/PACIFIC ISLANDER – CODE 4 – IN Q7)
8. More specifically, would you say that you are: (READ LIST)
Chinese -------------------------------------- 63%
Filipino ----------------------------------------7%
Indian -----------------------------------------5%
Japanese ---------------------------------------5%
Korean -----------------------------------------7%
Vietnamese------------------------------------3%
(MIXED RACE) ----------------------------3%
(OTHER) -------------------------------------4%
(DON’T READ) DK/NA/REFUSED---2%
9. FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN, METZ & ASSOCIATES 220-4006-WT PAGE 9
THANK AND TERMINATE
SEX (BY OBSERVATION): Male------------------------------------------ 46%
Female--------------------------------------- 54%
REGISTRATION: Democrat------------------------------------ 68%
Republican ------------------------------------6%
No Party Preference----------------------- 21%
Other -------------------------------------------5%
LANGUAGE OF INTERVIEW: English--------------------------------------- 92%
Spanish ----------------------------------------3%
Chinese ----------------------------------------5%
STATEWIDE ELECTION FLAGS
P08------------------------------------------- 39%
G08 ------------------------------------------ 77%
M09------------------------------------------ 35%
P10------------------------------------------- 48%
G10 ------------------------------------------ 81%
P12------------------------------------------- 50%
G12 ------------------------------------------ 84%
P14------------------------------------------- 47%
Blank ------------------------------------------ 8%
AGE
18-29 ---------------------------------------- 12%
30-39 ---------------------------------------- 18%
40-49 ---------------------------------------- 18%
50-64 ---------------------------------------- 27%
65-74 ---------------------------------------- 16%
75+-------------------------------------------- 8%
BLANK--------------------------------------- 1%
CITY COUNCIL
City Council District 1 ------------------- 21%
City Council District 2 ------------------- 15%
City Council District 3 ------------------- 16%
City Council District 4 ------------------- 17%
City Council District 5 --------------------- 9%
City Council District 6 ------------------- 12%
City Council District 7 ------------------- 10%
PERMANENT ABSENTEE
Yes ------------------------------------------- 60%
No -------------------------------------------- 40%
HOUSEHOLD PARTY TYPE
D1 -------------------------------------------- 46%
D2+ ----------------------------------------- 17%
R1 ----------------------------------------------3%
R2+ -------------------------------------------1%
I1+ ------------------------------------------ 21%
Mixed---------------------------------------- 11%