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Oakland Chamber of Commerce 2014 Mayoral Poll

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Oakland Chamber of Commerce 2014 Mayoral Poll
Released October 15, 2014

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce 2014 Mayoral Poll

  1. 1. Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Voter Survey Results October 15, 2014
  2. 2. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 2 Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%. Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 Voters in the City of Oakland Research conducted jointly by Oakland pollsters EMC Research and FM3 Interviews conducted October 5-9, 2014 500 total interviews city wide Margin of Error: +4.4 percentage points Interviewing conducted by trained, professional interviewers Landlines and mobile phones included Where appropriate, results compared with previous survey conducted by EMC Research in September 2013 Methodology
  3. 3. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 3 Voters feel things are improving in Oakland: Most feel the local economy in Oakland is getting better; quality of life ratings have improved; a plurality feel the city is on the right track, and most feel safer or as safe as they did a year or two ago. At the same time, ratings of city leadership remain very weak. Both Mayor Quanand the City Council have job ratings below 20%. Schools, safety and jobs remain voters’ top concerns. An overwhelming majority of voters feel the City should be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland, and voters place a higher priority on helping local businesses than attracting national chains. Key Findings: Voter Attitudes
  4. 4. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 4 21% of voters are undecided on their first choice vote, and another 34% have not yet allocated (and may not allocate) all three of their choices. Mayor Quan’sunfavorable to favorable numbers remain stubbornly high, with a weak job rating and low vote total despite the increasingly positive sense about the state and direction of the City. Bryan Parker, the OakPAC-endorsed candidate, trails the field, but has the most opportunity to improve given current name ID, especially in the wake of the SF Chronicle endorsement. Libby Schaaf’sposition is improving, with a 20 point improvement in name ID since last year, and a significant bump in support during this poll after receiving the endorsement of Governor Brown last week. Having run City-wide twice already, Kaplan remains in the lead but has less room to improve her name ID; and her unfavorable rating is higher than any candidate other than the Mayor. Key Findings: 2014 Mayoral Election
  5. 5. Voter Attitudes on Jobs and Economic Development
  6. 6. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 6 Perceptions of Oakland’s Economy 61% 15% 7% 17% Better Same Don't know Worse More than 6 in 10 voters say the city’s economy is better than a year or two ago. Q11. Thinking about Oakland’s economy today, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse?
  7. 7. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 7 Perceptions of Economy by Council District Voters in Districts 6 and 7 are least likely to feel the economy is improving. Q11. Thinking about Oakland’s economy today, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse? 61% 66% 68% 60% 66% 59% 52% 46% 15% 13% 17% 13% 15% 26% 13% 12% 7% 4% 7% 10% 3% 13% 16% 17% 17% 7% 17% 16% 15% 22% 26% Overall D1 (n=105) D2 (n=75) D3 (n=80) D4 (n=85) D5 (n=45) D6 (n=60) D7 (n=50) Better Same (Don't know) Worse
  8. 8. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 8 Oakland Voter Priorities 59% 73% 58% 46% 43% 46% 42% 42% 36% 39% 32% 32% 35% 23% 19% 12% 18% 18% 17% 13% 17% 14% 19% 13% 13% 14% 8% 9% 13% 6% 14% 23% 22% 21% 20% 22% 20% 17% 23% 17% 16% 23% 91% 91% 90% 87% 82% 80% 79% 78% 75% 69% 68% 63% 59% 55% Public safety and crime prevention Improving the quality of public schools Creating good-paying local jobs Keeping parks safe and clean Repairing and maintaining roads Building housing that lower & middle-income people can afford Balancing the city budget Making it easier to start, run, & grow a business in Oakland Improving city government services Cleaning up blight, illegal dumping, and graffiti Improving public transportation Providing recreational opportunities Protecting residents from increased fees and taxes Building more housing 7 Extremely Important 6 5 Total Important Voters rate public safety, schools and jobs as the most important priorities for the city. Using a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 is not at all important and 7 is extremely important, how important do you feel each of the following should be in Oakland right now? (Split Sample, N=250)
  9. 9. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 9 Improving Oakland’s business climate An overwhelming majority of voters across all demographic groups believethe city should be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland. Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements? “The city should make it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.” 88% 88% 90% 93% 83% 96% 83% 86% 95% 78% 7% 5% 6% 1% 13% 2% 9% 14% 5% 8% 5% 7% 4% 5% 4% 2% 8% 13% Overall Men 18-49 Women 18-49 Men 50+ Women 50+ Black/African-American White Hispanic Asian Other Agree Don't know Disagree
  10. 10. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 10 Improving Oakland’s business climate Across the city, voters feel strongly that the city should make it easier for businesses. Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements? “The city should make it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.” 88% 83% 92% 83% 88% 89% 94% 95% 7% 17% 5% 7% 3% 6% 2% 5% 3% 9% 8% 5% 5% 5% Overall D1 (n=105) D2 (n=75) D3 (n=80) D4 (n=85) D5 (n=45) D6 (n=60) D7 (n=50) Agree Don't know Disagree
  11. 11. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 11 Attitudes toward economic development policies More than 3 in 4 voters support requiring affordable housing in new development; most voters also support tax incentives to attract businesses and allowing more chain stores. Q14a-Q14c. Next, I’d like to get your opinion on some ideas about economic growth and job creation.Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose… 53% 38% 37% 25% 32% 25% 5% 7% 5% 10% 15% 17% 7% 9% 15% Requiring affordable housingbe part of any new housingdevelopment project Offering tax incentives toencourage companies to moveto Oakland Allowing more national retailstores to locate in Oakland Stronglyfavor Somewhatfavor (Don't know) Somewhatoppose Stronglyoppose
  12. 12. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 12 Priorities for Business Development Voters want the city to focus on supporting local businesses over national chains; more voters want to see the city focus on neighborhood stores than downtown, but both are priorities. Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority? 56% 50% 49% 44% 37% 41% 31% 16% 20% 21% 18% 19% 20% 15% 17% 8% 14% 17% 20% 18% 22% 18% 20% 19% 90% 88% 87% 81% 79% 74% 68% 43% Supporting local Oakland-ownedstores Supporting existing stores in localneighborhoods Promoting art, music and culture Promoting new downtown retail Supporting food and restaurants Attracting new tech jobs Building high quality housing Introducing big national chains 7 6 5 Total Priority
  13. 13. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 13 Support for neighborhood stores by Council District Voters across Oakland want to see the City do more to support neighborhood stores. Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority? 50% 51% 44% 49% 54% 53% 43% 54% 21% 22% 27% 18% 22% 20% 27% 9% 17% 20% 19% 13% 16% 12% 15% 25% 88% 93% 90% 80% 92% 85% 85% 88% Overall City Council District 1 (n=105) City Council District 2 (n=75) City Council District 3 (n=80) City Council District 4 (n=85) City Council District 5 (n=45) City Council District 6 (n=60) City Council District 7 (n=50) 7 6 5 Total Priority “Supporting existing stores in local neighborhoods.”
  14. 14. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 14 New downtown retail by Council district Voters in D4, D6 and D7 are most likely to want the city to promote downtown retail. Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority? 44% 40% 33% 46% 51% 42% 48% 55% 19% 26% 21% 15% 26% 11% 10% 11% 18% 17% 28% 15% 8% 20% 24% 15% 81% 83% 82% 76% 85% 73% 82% 81% Overall City Council District 1 (n=105) City Council District 2 (n=75) City Council District 3 (n=80) City Council District 4 (n=85) City Council District 5 (n=45) City Council District 6 (n=60) City Council District 7 (n=50) 7 6 5 Total Priority “Promoting new downtown retail.”
  15. 15. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 15 Support for new housing by Council district Voters in D2 are least interested in new housing; voters in D7 are most likely to want the City to focus on new housing. Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority? 31% 32% 18% 28% 36% 30% 30% 50% 17% 18% 23% 17% 17% 14% 11% 13% 20% 27% 23% 15% 22% 15% 19% 13% 68% 77% 64% 60% 75% 59% 60% 76% Overall City Council District 1 (n=105) City Council District 2 (n=75) City Council District 3 (n=80) City Council District 4 (n=85) City Council District 5 (n=45) City Council District 6 (n=60) City Council District 7 (n=50) 7 6 5 Total Priority “Building high quality housing.”
  16. 16. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 16 Oakland Culture & Dining Participation Most voters have dined downtown more than twice in the last year. Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities. 31% 17% 23% 6% 7% 38% 40% 35% 25% 19% 20% 27% 17% 24% 28% 89% 84% 75% 55% 54% Shopped or dined in downtownOakland Shopped or dined in Jack LondonSquare Shopped or dined in Uptown Attended Oakland’s First Fridays Art Festival Attended either an Oakland A’s or Oakland Raiders game More than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend
  17. 17. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 17 Oakland Culture & Dining Participation Over Time Voters report more shopping and dining visits compared to last year. Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities. 6% 3% 17% 13% 23% 21% 31% 29% 25% 18% 40% 38% 35% 32% 38% 40% 24% 26% 27% 26% 17% 16% 20% 15% 55% 47% 84% 77% 75% 68% 89% 84% 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 First Fridays Jack London Uptown Downtown More than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend
  18. 18. Attitudes Toward Oakland
  19. 19. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 19 Direction of Oakland 71% 68% 70% 58% 69% 49% 48% 25% 20% 23% 23% 26% 17% 27% 33% 36% 45% 20% 19% 17% 26% 19% 33% 38% 58% 63% 54% 55% 54% 59% 47% 50% 46% 38% Oct99 Feb00 Mar01 Jun01 Jul01 May02 Jun02 Mar05 Apr09 Nov09 Jan10 Apr12 Sep12 Aug13 Sep13 Mar14 Jul14 Oct14 Right direction Wrong track Voters have grown more optimistic about Oakland over the past year. Q2. Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Source: Previous data from past EMC polling in Oakland
  20. 20. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 20 Oakland’s Quality of Life Ratings of Oakland “as a place to live” have also improved over the last year. Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live? 35% 21% 43% 49% 1% 2% 16% 20% 5% 8% 2014 2013 Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor
  21. 21. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 21 Rating Quality of Life by Council District Voters in D6 and D7 are least likely to say Oakland is an excellent place to live. Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live? 35% 44% 39% 35% 31% 44% 25% 17% 43% 39% 41% 44% 54% 24% 48% 45% 1% 1% 4% 2% 16% 11% 17% 16% 12% 22% 18% 29% 5% 6% 3% 3% 2% 9% 5% 7% Overall D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor
  22. 22. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 22 Feelings of Safety 35% say they feel safer in Oakland than a year or two ago, and 35% feel safer in their neighborhood. Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland/ your neighborhoodthan you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? 35% 35% 37% 39% 2% 4% 25% 23% In Oakland In yourneighborhood Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe
  23. 23. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 23 Trend: Perceptions of Safety in Oakland 24% 20% 13% 12% 13% 35% 35% 34% 51% 47% 55% 25% Nov-09 Jan-10 Apr-12 Sep-12 13-Sep Oct-14 Safer Less Safe Perceptions of safety have improved sharply. Next, would you say you feel safer today in Oaklandthan you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? (Split Sample, N=250)
  24. 24. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 24 Feelings of Neighborhood Safety by Council District Voters in D5 and D7 are most likely to say their neighborhoods have become less safe. (Split Sample, N=250) Next, would you say you feel safer today in your neighborhoodthan you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? 35% 38% 30% 33% 37% 39% 33% 36% 39% 36% 51% 36% 41% 32% 48% 20% 4% 3% 3% 6% 16% 23% 24% 16% 25% 22% 29% 19% 28% Overall D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe
  25. 25. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 25 Job Ratings: Mayor and City Council Despite optimism about the city’s direction, job ratings of the Mayor and City Council remain weak. Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor...How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quanis doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing? 4% 1% 15% 16% 3% 9% 42% 53% 35% 21% Oakland Mayor JeanQuan Oakland City Council Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor
  26. 26. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 26 Job Ratings: Mayor and City Council Over Time Job ratings for Mayor and Council are essentially unchanged since 2013. Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor...How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quanis doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing? 19% 20% 17% 14% 3% 4% 9% 11% 77% 77% 74% 75% 2014 2013 2014 2013 Oakland Mayor JeanQuan Oakland City Council Excellent/Good (Don't know) Only Fair/Poor
  27. 27. 2014 Mayoral Election: Background
  28. 28. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 28 QuanFavorable Rating Trend 35% 51% 36% 24% 34% 12% 17% 53% 62% 57% Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Oct-14 Favorable Unfavorable Mayor Quan’sfavorable rating has improved since last year but a solid majority continue to hold negative opinions of her. Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… Mayor Jean Quan
  29. 29. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 29 Incumbent Vital Signs: Jean Quan On all key measures, Quanremains weak for an incumbent. Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland/ your neighborhoodthan you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? 34% 19% 25% 28% 8% 3% 8% 21% 57% 77% 67% 51% Quan Favorable Quan Job Rating Quan Re-elect Initial Vote FavorsChallengers Neutral Favors Quan (Vote Quanwith any choice) (Undecided 1stChoice) (Vote for Challengers only)
  30. 30. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 30 Mayoral Candidates –Name ID Kaplan and Quanare best known by a wide margin. Q4a-Q4i. Now I’m going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so. 91% 72% 52% 49% 42% 36% 32% 6% 13% 18% 18% 18% 20% 20% 98% 86% 69% 68% 61% 57% 52% Mayor Jean Quan City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan City Council Member Libby Schaaf Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel Government Law Professor JoeTuman City Auditor Courtney Ruby Businessperson and UniversityTrustee Bryan Parker Hard Name ID (Fav + Unfav) Soft Name ID (Can't rate) Total Name ID
  31. 31. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 31 Mayoral Candidates -Favorables Kaplan has significant unfavorable rating; Schaaf has the strongest favorable to unfavorable ratio. Q4a-Q4i. Now I’m going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so. 50% 44% 35% 34% 33% 27% 21% 28% 48% 51% 8% 58% 63% 68% 22% 8% 14% 57% 9% 9% 11% 2.3 5.5 2.5 0.6 3.7 3.0 1.9 City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan City Council Member Libby Schaaf Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel Mayor Jean Quan Government Law Professor Joe Tuman City Auditor Courtney Ruby Businessperson and University TrusteeBryan Parker Favorable Can't Rate/ Never Heard Unfavorable Fav/UnfavRatio
  32. 32. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 32 Kaplan Favorable Rating Trend 32% 44% 54% 50% 8% 13% 13% 22% Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Oct-14 Favorable Unfavorable Kaplan’s unfavorable has risen as she has become better known. Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan
  33. 33. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 33 SchaafFavorable Rating Trend 23% 26% 44% 5% 7% 8% Apr-12 Sep-13 Oct-14 Favorable Unfavorable Schaaf name ID and favorableshave spiked since September 2013. Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… City Council Member Libby Schaaf
  34. 34. 2014 Mayoral Election: Vote
  35. 35. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 35 Ranked Choice Voting 21% of voters are completely undecided in the mayoral election, and 55% in total have not yet allocated all 3 of their votes. 38% of the total possible vote in the mayoral election remains up for grabs. 21% 15% 19% 45% 0 candidates 1 candidate 2 candidates 3 candidates Mean: 1.88 choices per voter Number of candidates chosen in Ranked Choice Vote
  36. 36. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 36 Mayoral Ranked Choice Vote Kaplan leads in the first choice vote and total vote. Schaaf narrowly trails Quanin first choice vote, but leads her in total vote. 21% 14% 17% 8% 9% 4% 4% 15% 13% 7% 8% 6% 5% 4% 7% 6% 4% 7% 5% 5% 5% 43% 33% 28% 23% 20% 14% 13% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Rebecca Kaplan Libby Schaaf Jean Quan Joe Tuman Dan Siegel Courtney Ruby Bryan Parker Charles Williams Eric Wilson Jason Anderson Saied Karamooz Peter Liu Pat McCullough Ken Houston Nancy Sidebotham FirstChoice SecondChoice ThirdChoice Total Vote Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate.
  37. 37. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 37 Mayoral Vote –RCV Results Kaplan beats Schaaf in the ranked choice vote results. Mayoral vote ranked choice vote distribution Candidate Initial Top 7 Top 6 Top 5 Top 4 Top 3 Final Kaplan 20.9 27.9 28.7 30.5 33.0 40.7 58.8 Schaaf 14.3 18.4 19.6 20.9 27.0 30.9 41.3 Quan 17.1 22.0 23.0 23.4 24.9 28.4 Siegel 9.0 11.8 12.4 13.6 15.1 Tuman 7.6 10.0 10.7 11.6 Parker 4.0 5.1 5.6 Ruby 3.7 4.8 Undecided/Other 23.4 Sample Size remainingaftereliminated votes 500 389 384 378 362 343 300 Margin of error +4.4% +5.0% +5.0% +5.0% +5.1% +5.3% +5.7%
  38. 38. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 38 Mayoral Vote Shift During Poll Schaaf moves into second place on the news of her endorsement from Governor Brown. 20% 9% 18% 10% 9% 3% 4% 39% 26% 29% 23% 20% 12% 16% Kaplan Schaaf Quan Tuman Siegel Ruby Parker First Choice Total Vote Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate. October 5-6 (n=186) October 7-9 (n=314) 22% 17% 17% 6% 9% 4% 4% 45% 37% 27% 23% 19% 14% 11% Kaplan Schaaf Quan Tuman Siegel Ruby Parker First Choice Total VoteOctober 5-6 ResultsOctober 7-9 Results RCV result: Kaplan 57% Quan43% RCV result: Kaplan 57% Schaaf43%
  39. 39. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 39 Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 7 If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 5% 5% 10% 12% 22% 18% 28% Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
  40. 40. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 40 Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 6 If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 5% 5% 10% 12% 22% 18% 28% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 11% 12% 23% 20% 29% Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
  41. 41. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 41 Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 5 If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 6% 11% 12% 23% 20% 29% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 12% 14% 23% 21% 31% Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
  42. 42. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 42 Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 4 If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 12% 14% 23% 21% 31% 2% 2% 6% 3% 15% 25% 27% 33% Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
  43. 43. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 43 Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 3 If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 15% 25% 27% 33% 4% 4% 8% 28% 31% 41% Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
  44. 44. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 44 Mayoral IRV Simulation: Final If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 28% 31% 41% 10% 18% 41% 59% Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
  45. 45. Oakland Ballot Measures
  46. 46. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 46 Attitudes Toward Property Taxes Most voters think property taxes are too high; voters in D6 and D7 are most likely to agree. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Property taxes in Oakland are too high. 53% 45% 48% 40% 61% 57% 63% 70% 17% 22% 17% 29% 7% 14% 9% 16% 30% 33% 35% 31% 32% 28% 28% 14% Overall D1 (n=105) D2 (n=75) D3 (n=80) D4 (n=85) D5 (n=45) D6 (n=60) D7 (n=50) Agree (Don't know) Disagree
  47. 47. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 47 Measure Z Vote Yes, approve54% No, reject27% Undecided19% Yes, approve No, reject Undecided Support for Measure Z falls short of 2/3. (On the ballot, the text of Measure Z begins with the wording “without increasing current tax rates…” Recent public polling which tested the measure’s full ballot language showed support at 75%.) Q3a. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the election were held today, would you vote “yes” to approve or “no” to reject each of the following measures… Would you vote yes to approve or no to reject: Measure Z, which would renew an annual parcel tax and parking tax to fund police staffing and violence prevention and intervention programs.
  48. 48. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 48 Measure N Vote Yes, approve59% No, reject23% Undecided18% Yes, approve No, reject Undecided Support for measure N is also less than the 2/3 required. Q3b. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the election were held today, would you vote “yes” to approve or “no” to reject each of the following measures…Measure N, which would establish an annual parcel tax of $120 dedicated to school programs that prepare students for colleges and real-world jobs, and reduce dropout rates.
  49. 49. Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 49 Likely Voter Demographics 46% Men 54% Women Length of Time in Oakland Less than 2 years (4%) 2-5 years (13%) 6-10 years (14%) 11-20 years (18%) More than 20 years (51%) Work in Oakland –29% Employed elsewhere –24% Unemployed –8% Retired –26% Other –12% 68% Democrats 6% Republicans 26x% NPP/Others 47% are 18-49 years old 28% are 50-64 25% are over 65 White –49% African-American –28% Latino –8% Chinese –4% Other Asian/Pacific Islander –3% Other –5%
  50. 50. Contacts Alex Evans alex@emcresearch.com 510.550.8920 David Metz dave@fm3research.com 510.451.9521 Contactss Barbara Leslie bleslie@oaklandchamber.com 510.874.4800

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