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OECD Meeting on Disaster Losses
Debby Guha-Sapir
November, 2014
HOW MUCH DO LOSSES VARY BY SOURCE
Loss reporting differences by source
Earthquake-Tsunami, Japan (Fukushima)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
OCHA AFP USGS Worl...
Flood in Thailand (2011)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Cat-i Aon Munich Re Swiss Re
Billions
Economic damages (US$2011)
WHAT DO INDIRECT LOSSES MEAN ?
Indirect Losses
Kobe - 17 January 1995
Northridge earthquake, USA,
1994
Hurricane Mitch, Nicaragua,
1998
Private property ...
HOW WELL ARE LOSSES REPORTED
Figure 15: Reporting bias: % of disasters reporting losses, colour coded by
income category (cf. Annex 1), Asian ADB count...
HOW CAN POLICY MAKERS USE LOSS DATA ?
Figure 14: Disaster types: total damages (2012 US$ billion) and percentage
of total damages, AADB countries, 1980-2012
Geo...
Figure 16: Time trend of losses as share of GDP for storms, earthquakes and floods, AADB
countries, 1980-2012
0
0.2
0.4
0....
THANK YOU
WWW.CRED.BE
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Presentation by Debby Guha-Sapir

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Presentation by Debby Guha-Sapir at the OECD Workshop on Improving the Evidence Base on the Costs of Disasters (21 November 2014). Find more information at http://www.oecd.org/governance/risk/workshoponimprovingtheevidencebaseonthecostsofdisasters.htm.

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Presentation by Debby Guha-Sapir

  1. 1. OECD Meeting on Disaster Losses Debby Guha-Sapir November, 2014
  2. 2. HOW MUCH DO LOSSES VARY BY SOURCE
  3. 3. Loss reporting differences by source Earthquake-Tsunami, Japan (Fukushima) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 OCHA AFP USGS World Bank Munich Re Aon Swiss Re Billions Economic damages (US$2011)
  4. 4. Flood in Thailand (2011) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Cat-i Aon Munich Re Swiss Re Billions Economic damages (US$2011)
  5. 5. WHAT DO INDIRECT LOSSES MEAN ?
  6. 6. Indirect Losses Kobe - 17 January 1995 Northridge earthquake, USA, 1994 Hurricane Mitch, Nicaragua, 1998 Private property losses – 50b; economic dislocation and business interruption - 50b; restore basic functions - 100b Unprecedented business interruption losses—$6.5 b Losses of rent (estimation based on rent for inhabitant to move into a new houses)
  7. 7. HOW WELL ARE LOSSES REPORTED
  8. 8. Figure 15: Reporting bias: % of disasters reporting losses, colour coded by income category (cf. Annex 1), Asian ADB countries, 1980-2012 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 Hong Kong (China) Taipei (China) Malaysia Turkmenistan China, P. Rep. Philippines Uzbekistan Pakistan India Georgia Viet Nam Afghanistan Nepal Tajikistan Cambodia
  9. 9. HOW CAN POLICY MAKERS USE LOSS DATA ?
  10. 10. Figure 14: Disaster types: total damages (2012 US$ billion) and percentage of total damages, AADB countries, 1980-2012 Geophysical (Earthquakes & tsunamis), 600, 47% Hydrological (Floods), 432, 34% Meteorological (Storms), 236, 19%
  11. 11. Figure 16: Time trend of losses as share of GDP for storms, earthquakes and floods, AADB countries, 1980-2012 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Earthquake Flood Storm Poly. (Earthquake) Poly. (Flood) Poly. (Storm)
  12. 12. THANK YOU WWW.CRED.BE

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