Presentation made at the expert meeting organised jointly by the European Commission, the OECD and the project PLACARD, in Paris 26th -28th October 2016. For more information see www.oecd.org/gov/risk/joint-expert-meeting-on-disaster-loss-data.htm

1. The European Commission’s
science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
Future losses to critical
infrastructures due to
climate change
EC, OECD, PLACARD
Joint Expert meeting
on Disaster Loss Data
OECD, 26 October 2016

2. 2
2ann7Dalje
National Geographic
BY-SA3.0
Travel

3. 3
Methodological framework
(IPCC, AR5)

4. 4
(IPCC, AR5)
Methodological framework

5. 5
Damage to critical infrastructures
baseline 2020s 2050s 2080s
Windstorms
Coastal floods
River floods
Wildfires
Droughts
Cold waves
Heat waves
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
baseline 2020s 2050s 2080s
Overallclimaterisk(billion€/year)
Social
Industry
Energy
Transport

6. 6
T
I
M
E
future
Change in the
frequency and
intensity of
hazards
Damage assessment
Climate hazards Exposed assets Reported Damages
Frequency and
intensity of
hazards
Nuclear power
plant in Spain
Port in Estonia
present
Damages to current
infrastructure stock
under future climate
conditions

7. 7
7
Damage information available
year 2010
dis_group Natural
dis_subgroup Hydrological
dis_type Flood
country_name Poland
location Cracovie, Vrasovie
origin Heavy rain
start_year 2010
start_month 5
start_day 17
end_year 2010
end_month 5
end_day 26
total_deaths 16
total_affected 100,000
total_dam ('000 US$) 3,080,000
What is the
damage to
critical
infrastructures?
EM-DAT

8. 8
8
total damage
per event
damage per critical
infrastructure type
Damage distribution over infrastructures
Expert survey +
literature review
Rail
ways
Roads
Water
ways
Air
ports
Ports
Heat
Cold
Drought
Fire
Flood
Coast
Wind
Sensitivity assets to hazards
national shares of
the monetary value
of sector-specific
capital stock and
gross value added

9. 9
9
Understanding vulnerability is key
Understanding of vulnerability of
infrastructures to different hazards is
limited, and quantitative
information on the sensitivity of
critical infrastructures to weather-
related hazards is largely absent
Priority 1. Understanding
disaster risk
Objective 2: Promoting better
informed decision-making
Indicators to
measure
progress

10. 10
Fatalities from weather-related disasters

11. 11
11
Better data are crucial to properly assess current
and future disaster risk and to evaluate the cost-
effectiveness of risk reduction and adaptation
strategies
because our models are only as good as their input