Backcasting for 2030 Climates | Alex Hill

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Backcasting for 2030 Climates | Alex Hill

  1. 1. © Crown copyright Met Office Backcasting 12-3-2014 Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office Alex.hill@metoffice.gov.uk
  2. 2. © Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 1.Peak 2.BAU 3.Reductions rate 4.Long term Level Global emissions trajectories Business-as-usual scenario Policy scenario 1 3 2 4
  3. 3. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCP09 & AR4 Three different emission scenarios
  4. 4. © Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs AVOID Impacts on physical systems Impacts on human systems Emissions Climate change
  5. 5. © Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs AVOID Emissions Costs Technology
  6. 6. © Crown copyright Met Office Global Futures HadCM3 climate model pattern Crop suitability: % of cropland with decrease in suitability Decrease in crop suitability 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 %ofcropland A1b A1b-2016-2-H A1b-2016-4-L A1b-2016-5-L A1b-2030-2-H A1b-2030-5-L Increase in water resources stress 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Millionsofpeople A1b A1b-2016-2-H A1b-2016-4-L A1b-2016-5-L A1b-2030-2-H A1b-2030-5-L Change in flood risk 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year %changeinfloodrisk A1b 2016-2-H 2016-4-L 2016-5-L 2030-5-L 2030-2-H Average annual number of people flooded: constant protection 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Millionsofpeople A1b A1b-2016-5-low A1b-2030-5-low No SLR
  7. 7. © Crown copyright Met Office Adapting now, mitigating for the future? Adaptation Mitigation IPCC 20C CRC
  8. 8. National Risk Register A number of key national risks can be expected to increase in likelihood and impact as a result of climate change ‘Moving to the right’
  9. 9. © Crown copyright Met Office Slide by Erika Increase in probability of extremes in a warmer climate • now Probability of occurrence Extremes Extremes (After IPCC 2007 & Karl et al. 2008) • in future Fewer extremes More extremes More record extremes Threshold Average Threshold New average
  10. 10. © Crown copyright Met Office IMPACT © Crown copyright Met Office observations Met Office Projections 2040s 2060s EuropeTempanomaly(wrt1961-90)°C 2003 2 deg c Ave
  11. 11. © Crown copyright Met Office Extreme Rainfall: Is there an emerging signal? 99th Percentile Rainfall Intensity (mm/day) Extreme Daily Rainfall Statistics
  12. 12. AR5 Emissions Emissions Scenarios have become RCP The Representative Concentration Pathway or RCP. These represent very different views of how the world may look in 2100, with RCP 2.6 showing the effects of strong mitigation and RCP 8.5 the impacts of 'business as usual.
  13. 13. Projections of global average warming
  14. 14. Human contribution to changes in weather extremes Phenomenon Global changes since 1950 Late 21st century Fewer cold days and nights Very likely Virtually certain More hot days and nights Very likely Virtually certain Increase in heat waves Likely (Eur,Asia,Aus) Very likely Increase in heavy precipitation Likely (N Amer, Eur) *Very likely in some areas * Amended from SREX, AR4
  15. 15. © Crown copyright Met Office

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