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Dynamic Habitat Models for Estuary-Dependent Species

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Presentation to Nisqually River Council, January 2019

Published in: Environment
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Dynamic Habitat Models for Estuary-Dependent Species

  1. 1. DYNAMIC HABITAT MODELS FOR ESTUARY-DEPENDENT SPECIES Melanie Davis University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, USGSWestern Ecological Research Center With collaborators: IsaWoo, Susan De La Cruz (USGS) Glynnis Nakai (USFWS) Chris Ellings, Sayre Hodgson (NisquallyTribe)
  2. 2. COASTAL HABITAT CHANGE
  3. 3. ESTUARINE RESTORATION (Elliott et al. 2016) Pristine Degraded Restoring Restored?
  4. 4. CLIMATE IMPACTS Peterson et al. 1998, Gunderson 2000
  5. 5. Restoration ?Degradation Climate change
  6. 6. Restoration ?Degradation Climate change
  7. 7. Photo: Russ McMillan
  8. 8. Offshore Nearshore Delta Flats Emergent Marsh Transition Forested Riverine Freshwater Tidal 2009 2002 1996 2006 Puget Sound Washington, USA N Weinstein et al. 2013: “Restoration planners should and must view restoration goals in the context of the full estuarine mosaic”
  9. 9. Pilot (1996) Phase I (2002) Phase III (2009) Phase II (2006) 2005
  10. 10. Pilot (1996) Phase I (2002) Phase III (2009) Phase II (2006) 2010
  11. 11. Pilot (1996) Phase I (2002) Phase III (2009) Phase II (2006) 2015
  12. 12. OBJECTIVES  1) Model change in the restoring habitat mosaic through time  2) Determine prey availability in each habitat type  3) Figure out which prey taxa are being consumed by juvenile Chinook salmon and in what quantity  4) Use a bioenergetics model to estimate the “quality” of estuarine habitat as the mosaic shifts
  13. 13. OBJECTIVES  1) Model change in the restoring habitat mosaic through time  2) Determine prey availability in each habitat type  3) Figure out which prey taxa are being consumed by juvenile Chinook salmon and in what quantity  4) Use a bioenergetics model to estimate the “quality” of estuarine habitat as the mosaic shifts ?
  14. 14. CHAPTE R 1 Cahoon et al. 2009
  15. 15. Chapter 1
  16. 16. Marani et al. 2007. Alternative stable elevations in a vegetated salt marsh
  17. 17. No management actions Intermittent dredging Raised marsh platform 1 m Moderate Sea-level Rise (0.63 m by 2100) Doubled sediment inputs
  18. 18. No management actions Intermittent dredging Doubled sediment inputs Raised marsh platform 1 m High Sea-level Rise (1.35 m by 2100)
  19. 19. OBJECTIVES  1) Model change in the restoring habitat mosaic through time  2) Determine prey availability in each habitat type  3) Figure out which prey taxa are being consumed by juvenile Chinook salmon and in what quantity  4) Use a bioenergetics model to estimate the “quality” of estuarine habitat as the mosaic shifts
  20. 20. Plum Island LTER
  21. 21. Salt MarshForested Transition Mudflat Eelgrass
  22. 22. Davis et al. 2018 (in review)
  23. 23. Davis et al. 2018 (in review)
  24. 24. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 < 60 61-80 81-90 91-100 >100 Stomachenergycontent(kJ) Size class Unmarked Hatchery * *
  25. 25. OBJECTIVES  1) Model change in the restoring habitat mosaic through time  2) Determine prey availability in each habitat type  3) Figure out which prey taxa are being consumed by juvenile Chinook salmon and in what quantity  4) Use a bioenergetics model to estimate the “quality” of estuarine habitat as the mosaic shifts
  26. 26. Brandt et al. 1992 Temperature Prey density Growth potential Spring Summer
  27. 27. Luo et al. 2001
  28. 28. Budy et al. 2011
  29. 29. CHAPTER 4
  30. 30. May June July MTL MHW
  31. 31. 2% 6% 4% 6% 5% ∑ = ? SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT GROWTH POTENTIAL
  32. 32. SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT GROWTH POTENTIAL
  33. 33. APPLICATIONS BEYOND SALMON
  34. 34. APPLICATIONS BEYOND SALMON
  35. 35. APPLICATIONS BEYOND SALMON
  36. 36. PARTNERS AND COLLABORATORS USGSWERC: Lennah Shakeri, Sierra Blakely,Angie Munguia, Larisa Lamere, Anna Hissem, Chase Freeman, KelleyTurner, Lisa Belleveau, Sam Kaviar, JohnTakekawa, Ashley Smith, Jessica Donald, William Chan, Charlie Norton USGSWFRC: Kim Larsen, Angie Lind-Null, LisaWetzel, Karl Stenberg, Steve Rubin Nisqually IndianTribe: Chris Ellings, Sayre Hodgson, Jennifer Cutler,Walker Duval, Emilio Perez, Aaron David USFWS: Glynnis Nakai, Jesse Barham, Doug Roster, Marian Bailey, JeanTakekawa Graduate Supervisory Committee: Dave Beauchamp, Julian Olden, Si Simenstad, Christian Torgersen

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