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From Goldfish to God: The (dangerous?) Growth of AI
- 1. 1 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 KIT – University of the state of Baden-Württemberg and national research center of the Helmholtz Association KIT – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology www.kit.edu From Goldfish to God: The (dangerous?) Growth of AI Niklas Kühl Karlsruhe Service Research Institute (KSRI), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- 2. 2 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 What is Intelligence? Cognitive Capacity Based on Cairo (2011) Goldfish Mouse Dog Whale Monkey Human The ability to perceive information, to retain it as knowledge and to apply it towards adaptive behaviors within an environment.
- 3. 3 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 4 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 What is AI? Cognitive Capacity “Biological” Range of Intelligence Weak AI Good at one very specific thing Strong AI As intelligent as a human Artificial Superintelligence “much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills“ (Bostrom 2006) Artificial Superintelligence
- 4. 4 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 What is AI? Weak AI Good at one very specific thing Strong AI As intelligent as a human Artificial Superintelligence “much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills“ (Bostrom 2006) Long, very challenging journey Singularity?
- 5. 5 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 4 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 Projected computing power of AI Calculations per second per $1000 Year Weak AI Strong AI Artificial Superintelligence 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Based on Kurzweil (2006), logarithmic plot 1010 1015 1020 1025 1030 1035 1040
- 6. 6 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 Projected computing power of AI Source: Drum (2013)
- 7. 7 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 When will we reach Strong AI? Cognitive Capacity Year Strong AI 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Dates based on Barrat (2013)
- 8. 8 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 When will we reach Artificial Superintelligence? Cognitive Capacity Year Strong AI 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Dates based on Barrat (2013) ? Artificial Superintelligence “much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills“ (Bostrom 2006)
- 9. 9 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 What could an Artifical Superintelligence do? Possible benefits = Positive impacts of AI on humanity Master nano technology Cure cancer End world hunger Resolve energy problems Artificial Superintelligence “much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills“ (Bostrom 2006) “There are no hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. Move the smallest bit upwards, and some problems will suddenly move from impossible to obvious. Move a substantial degree upwards, and all of them will become obvious.” (Yudowski 1996) Risks = Negative impacts of AI on humanity Unemployment Population Existential risks AI self- improvements “get out of hand” AI alien to human morals
- 10. 10 Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl, KIT 21.06.2018 Takeaways There is no doubt among scientists that we will reach Strong AI—The only question is when (Barrat 2013) The arrival of Artificial Superintelligence will be very sudden (Dordecht 2012) Artificial Superintelligence has the potential to be both very harmful and very beneficial (Müller and Bostrom 2013) We need to think carefully how we design AI (Hawking and Musk 2015) Dr.-Ing. Niklas Kühl Team Leader Advanced Analytics Karlsruhe Service Research Institute (KSRI) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Kaiserstraße 89, D-76133 Karlsruhe, Germany Mail: kuehl@kit.edu Web: niklas.xyz Thank you for your attention! Feel free to contact me anytime!
Editor's Notes
- Weak AI: Chess, Alpha Go Strong AI: As intelligent as a human across all tasks a human can do
- We need “Hardware” and “Software”
- Each 12-24 months maneuvering things atom by atom Nano robots
- Discuss Strong AI point in time: Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022 Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040 Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
- Discuss Strong AI point in time: Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022 Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040 Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
- Example: The problems of a goldfish seem ridiculous to you. You would have all the solutions for the goldfish’s problems, but could never communicate them Conquer mortality We as a species might become obsolete