2. Variables used to Determine Cost to Survey
VARIABLES: SOURCE:
$185.00 DET Planned Rate/ Hour PG&E Report 2012
25.0 Minutes to Grade & Inv. LISA Cluster Field Trial Time Estimates
70% % of LISA's Containing Gas Assumption based on historical performance
9.9 Survey Rate (Services/Hr.) PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
$1,330,000 AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost PG&E (70% of 714K Services)
500,000 Services to Survey in 2015 PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
80% Efficiency (Survey) PG&E Assumed Survey Efficiency
2.58 LISA Clusters per Gradable Leak Diablo & Sacramento Pilot Testing
500.0 Picarro Survey Services/ Hour PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
$1,088,000 Capital Investment 80% Capitalized (+ 1st year Services)
‘In 2015, PG&E plans to utilize the advanced leak detection
technology in 16 divisions, surveying nearly 500,000 services,
or (70 percent) of the services that are required to be
inspected.’ -PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
3. Cost to Survey=
1st Year Capital Investment ($1.1M)*
Services to survey (500K) /
Services/ Hour (500) x
Planned hourly rate ($185) x
# of Surveys x
2 Passes per Survey/
Efficiency (80%)
Survey Cost (using Gradable Leaks) =
LISAs to Investigate=
Gradable Leaks (Leak Find Ratio) x
LISAs per Gradable Leak (4.1x)
LISA Investigation Hours=
LISAs to Investigate x
Rate in LISA per Hour (25/60)
Cost to Investigate & Grade =
LISA Investigation Hours x
Planned Hourly Rate ($185)
GAP Survey Services=
(1-Coverage) x
Total Services Surveyed (500K)
GAP Survey Time=
GAP Survey Services x
Survey Rate in Services per Hour (9.9)
GAP Survey $'s=
GAP Survey Time x
Planned Rate ($185)
Survey Investigate & Grade GAP Survey
*Capital treatment: Capitalize 80% of contract (HW and 5 Year SW Term License)
(80% of $1.6M + 1st Year of 5 year Service Plan ($64K) = $1.1M)
Depreciation of capital asset over length of contract - 5 year useful life.
4. LISA’s Gradable Leaks*
LISA
30%
No Gas Found
70% Leak
Detected
NGF
30%
Leak
Detected
70%
35%
Gradable Leaks
65%
Meter Set, Leak on
Customer Side &
Other
Gradable Leak
35%
MS / Customer
65%
100 LISAs
30 70 Leaks
45.524.5
Gradable
100 LISAs / 24.5 Gradable Leaks*
= 4.1 LISAs per Gradable Leaks
* Data from Diablo & Sacramento Pilot Testing
5. Leak
Calculator:
100% Find Rate = 75,000
# of
Surveys
Adjusted Find
Rate
Picarro Traditional
Leak Find
Ratio
Traditional 48% 36,218 36,218 1.0
1 52% 39,258 36,218 1.1
2 77% 57,949 36,218 1.6
3 89% 66,847 36,218 1.8
4 95% 71,084 36,218 2.0
5 98% 73,101 36,218 2.0
6 99% 74,062 36,218 2.0
7 99% 74,519 36,218 2.1
8 100% 74,736 36,218 2.1
Leak Calculator
Traditional Leaks Fixed (PG&E 2014) = 36,218
We Know… 1.6x more leaks* than traditional @ 2 Surveys
Leak Find Ratio @ 2 Surveys = 1.6x
36,218 Traditional leaks x (1.6) = 5 @ 2 surveys
Grade PG&E ‘14
1 6,887
2+ 3,621
2 7,119
3 18,591
∑ 36,218
Find Rate ≠ Coverage:
Leak Find Rate =
R&D data collected in Santa Clara "Area A"
using a sample of about 20 leaks per category *from Pilot Studies (Diablo & Sacramento)
6. 64%
87%
95% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100%
97%
59%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leak Find Rate
# of Surveys 1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
BEST CASE* - Below Ground Leak Detection 84% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Best Case
WORST CASE - Below Ground Leak Detection 36% 59% 74% 83% 89% 93% 96% 97% Worst Case
ASSUMED CASE – Average Leak Find Rate 52% 77% 89% 95% 98% 99% 99% 100% Assumed Case
*Best & Worst case Leak Find Rates from R&D data collection. Best and worst scararios refer to the highest (Statin
Island) and lowest (Santa Clara Area A) absolute leak find rate observed for a specific area during field trials.
# of Surveys
FindRate
WORST CASE
BEST CASE
Assumed Rate set @
midpoint mean detection
rate of best & worst cases
12. $682
$533
$379
$355 $348 $348 $352 $357 $361
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cost to Survey per Leak as Surveys Increase
Variability in Cost per Leak Found
Blue Line = Cost Curve @ assumed Rates
Green line = Best Case Leaks Found (more leaks = Less $ per Leak)
Orange line = Worst Case Leaks Found (less leaks = More $ per Leak)
UPPER BOUND
LOWER BOUND
Possible Cost Band
13. PG&E Leak Distribution
3 2 2+ 1
7,093 13,093 8,776 3,295
MS $518 67% 67% 48% 26%
AG $2,224 19% 19% 35% 59%
BG $4,680 14% 13% 18% 15%
100% 100% 100% 100%
G3 G2 G2+ G1
34% 31% 17% 18%
Leak Repair Cost
Traditional Leaks Found $58.6M Leak Repair Cost for PG&E (1 Year)
Distribution of Leaks by Grade based off PG&E Historical data 2012-2014
Grade
Leak Repair
Cost by
Type:
Leaks Detected
14. $57.8
$68.0
$92.5
$101.3
$104.5 $105.6 $106.0 $106.2 $106.2
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leaks Detected & Repair Cost
LeaksFound
RepairCost$’s(inMillions)
Leak Repair Cost by Type:
Meter Set $518
Above Ground $2,224
Below Ground $4,680
Blue Line = Repair Cost @ assumed Rates
Green line = Most Leaks Found (more leaks = More Repair $’s)
Orange line = Least Leaks Found (less leaks = Less Repair $’s)
Possible Cost Band
*$’s in Millions
15. Monetized Risk from Undetected Leaks
Monetized Leak Risk (Annual)
Grade 1 $10,000
Grade 2+ $1,500
Grade 2 $1,000
Grade 3 $100
Assumptions:
Frequency of Catastrophic incidences = 1 every 10 years
Cost to PG&E in penalties and compensations = $2.25B
Grade 1 (most Hazardous) Leaks detected / Year ~ 5,000
5 Year Repair Cycle (leak would remain undetected until next Survey) =
5 x 5,000 = 25,000
$2,250,000,000 / 25,000 / 10 ~ $9,000San Bruno Pipeline Explosion (2010)
Enterprise and Operational Risk: ”Encompasses risks that could
have a potentially catastrophic impact on public and employee
safety, reliability, customer trust or PG&E’s financial condition,
as well as other risks that arise from our operations.”
-PG&E Gas Leak Status Report
16. $89.2
$82.2
$39.2
$18.7
$9.0
$4.4 $2.2 $1.1 $0.6
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leaks Detected & Monetized Risk from Undiscovered Leaks
LeaksFound
MonetizedRisk$’s(inMillions)
Monetized Leak Risk (Annual)
Grade 1 $10,000
Grade 2+ $1,500
Grade 2 $1,000
Grade 3 $100
Blue Line = Risk @ assumed Rates
Green line = BEST CASE Leaks Found (more leaks found = Less Risk)
Orange line = WORST CASE Leaks Found (less leaks found = More Risk)
Possible Cost Band
*$’s in Millions
21. PG&E Leaks by Grade
PG&E Breakout: 2012 2013 2014
Grade 1 : 10% 26% 19%
Grade 2+: 27% 14% 10%
Grade 2 : 41% 32% 20%
Grade 3 : 22% 28% 51%**
PG&E Leak Count* (by Grade)
Grade 2012 2013 2014
1 3,295 7,983 6,875
2+ 8,776 4,173 3,608
2 13,093 9,830 7,154
3 7,093 10,436 18,819
∑ 32,257 32,422 36,456
Grade 1 : 18%
Grade 2+: 17%
Grade 2 : 31%
Grade 3 : 34%
18%
17%
31%
34%
Grade 1 Grade 2+
Grade 2+ Grade 3
*PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY GAS LEAK REPORTS 2012-14 (Amended)
**Increase in Grade 3 Leaks due to adoption of Picarro Technology (187k Services, ¼ of total in 2014)
3 Year Average of Leak by
Grade for PG&E
22. Possible PG&E Leak Grade Detection Degradation
PG&E Breakout: 2012 2013 2014
Grade 1 : 10% 26% 19%
Grade 2+: 27% 14% 10%
Grade 2 : 41% 32% 20%
Grade 3 : 22% 28% 51%**
PG&E Leak Count* (by Grade)
Grade 2012 2013 2014
1 3,295 8,016 6,887
2+ 8,776 4,227 3,621
2 13,093 9,892 7,119
3 7,093 9,180 18,591
Year: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% G3: 22% 28% 51% ? ?
# of Svcs: - - 187K 500K 700K
% Total: - - 26% 70% 100%
What % of leaks detected from
PG&E will be Grade 3 in 2016 when
100% of Services surveyed are
surveyed using Picarro Tech?
* Data from PG&E Gas Leak Reports 2012-14
23. Survey Cost (Two Surveys vs. Three) =
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
Traditional
1
2
3
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
Traditional 1 2 3
AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000
GAP Survey Services $'s $- $6,446,970 $4,041,035 $2,744,634
Cost to Investigate & Grade $- $10,321,735 $11,534,745 $12,835,528
Cost to Survey $23,361,814 $1,537,700 $2,000,200 $2,462,700
24. Total Possible Cost (Two Surveys vs. Three) =
$-
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
Traditional 1
2
3
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
Traditional 1 2 3
Repair Cost $57,813,484 $66,219,181 $92,501,574 $102,933,056
Total Cost to Survey $24,691,814 $19,636,405 $18,905,981 $19,372,862
Monetized Risk from Unfixed Leaks $75,378,868 $63,270,566 $25,411,108 $10,384,689
25. Leak Detection (Picarro vs. Traditional)
• Survey Speed: (does not include Investigation Time)
• 500 services/ hour (Picarro)*
• 10-11 services/ hour (Traditional)
Efficiencies:
50x Faster
survey speed
80x Better
Leak Detection
*Source: SB 1371 Natural Gas Leakage Abatement Best Practices
PG&E presentation to the American Gas Association (AGA), October 5, 2014
• Leak Detection
• 32 leaks per hour (Picarro)
• 0.4 leaks/ hour (Traditional)
26. Survey Rate –
10 services / Hr.
Hours of Survey
– 50,000
Leaks Found
per Service - .4
*PG&E: In 2015, PG&E plans to utilize the advanced leak detection technology in 16 divisions, surveying nearly 500,000 services, or
approximately 50 percent of the services that are required to be inspected.
Survey Rate –
500 services / Hr.
Hours of
Survey – 1,000
Leaks found
per service –
36
20,000 Leaks
Survey Time Assumptions
Picarro vs. Traditional
500,000 Services
1 Year of Survey
= 1.6x More Leaks
32,000 Leaks
Picarro:
Traditional:
500,000 Services
1 Year of Survey
27. Alternative Approach to Leak by Grade
Grade
Traditional
Only
Picarro
Only
Common
Grade 1 n/a 7 n/a
Grade 2+ 0 10 1
Grade 2 7 67 24
Grade 3 16 74 12
Meter Set 187 239 11
Customer Equipment 0 9 0
Totals 210 406 48
Picarro Acadia & Original Evaluation Distribution
Gradable Leaks (33%)
Meter Set / Customer (67%)
LISA
30%
No Gas
Found
70% Leak
Detected
33%
Gradable Leaks
67%
Meter Set, Leak on
Customer Side & Other
NGF
Leak
Detected
70%
Gradable
Leak
33%
MS / Customer
67%
Editor's Notes
500k surveys
Start with the assumption that after 2 surveys = Leak find Rate is 1.7x
As the # of Surveys increases, absolute find rate (% chance of finding a leak after x passes) increases
Coverage is a rough estimation based on the P3100-baseline FOV model and that it will updated for P3100-modified when Ben's analysis is complete
The reason we used the three year average is because the model would account for a greater percentage grade 3 leaks, but not more leaks in total. The # of leaks is determined by our Leak Find Ratio (as # of Surveys increases)