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Compliance Survey Cost Curve Analysis
Variables used to Determine Cost to Survey
VARIABLES: SOURCE:
$185.00 DET Planned Rate/ Hour PG&E Report 2012
25.0 Minutes to Grade & Inv. LISA Cluster Field Trial Time Estimates
70% % of LISA's Containing Gas Assumption based on historical performance
9.9 Survey Rate (Services/Hr.) PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
$1,330,000 AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost PG&E (70% of 714K Services)
500,000 Services to Survey in 2015 PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
80% Efficiency (Survey) PG&E Assumed Survey Efficiency
2.58 LISA Clusters per Gradable Leak Diablo & Sacramento Pilot Testing
500.0 Picarro Survey Services/ Hour PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
$1,088,000 Capital Investment 80% Capitalized (+ 1st year Services)
‘In 2015, PG&E plans to utilize the advanced leak detection
technology in 16 divisions, surveying nearly 500,000 services,
or (70 percent) of the services that are required to be
inspected.’ -PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
Cost to Survey=
1st Year Capital Investment ($1.1M)*
Services to survey (500K) /
Services/ Hour (500) x
Planned hourly rate ($185) x
# of Surveys x
2 Passes per Survey/
Efficiency (80%)
Survey Cost (using Gradable Leaks) =
LISAs to Investigate=
Gradable Leaks (Leak Find Ratio) x
LISAs per Gradable Leak (4.1x)
LISA Investigation Hours=
LISAs to Investigate x
Rate in LISA per Hour (25/60)
Cost to Investigate & Grade =
LISA Investigation Hours x
Planned Hourly Rate ($185)
GAP Survey Services=
(1-Coverage) x
Total Services Surveyed (500K)
GAP Survey Time=
GAP Survey Services x
Survey Rate in Services per Hour (9.9)
GAP Survey $'s=
GAP Survey Time x
Planned Rate ($185)
Survey Investigate & Grade GAP Survey
*Capital treatment: Capitalize 80% of contract (HW and 5 Year SW Term License)
(80% of $1.6M + 1st Year of 5 year Service Plan ($64K) = $1.1M)
Depreciation of capital asset over length of contract - 5 year useful life.
LISA’s  Gradable Leaks*
LISA
30%
No Gas Found
70% Leak
Detected
NGF
30%
Leak
Detected
70%
35%
Gradable Leaks
65%
Meter Set, Leak on
Customer Side &
Other
Gradable Leak
35%
MS / Customer
65%
100 LISAs
30 70 Leaks
45.524.5
Gradable
100 LISAs / 24.5 Gradable Leaks*
= 4.1 LISAs per Gradable Leaks
* Data from Diablo & Sacramento Pilot Testing
Leak
Calculator:
100% Find Rate = 75,000
# of
Surveys
Adjusted Find
Rate
Picarro Traditional
Leak Find
Ratio
Traditional 48% 36,218 36,218 1.0
1 52% 39,258 36,218 1.1
2 77% 57,949 36,218 1.6
3 89% 66,847 36,218 1.8
4 95% 71,084 36,218 2.0
5 98% 73,101 36,218 2.0
6 99% 74,062 36,218 2.0
7 99% 74,519 36,218 2.1
8 100% 74,736 36,218 2.1
Leak Calculator
Traditional Leaks Fixed (PG&E 2014) = 36,218
We Know… 1.6x more leaks* than traditional @ 2 Surveys
Leak Find Ratio @ 2 Surveys = 1.6x
36,218 Traditional leaks x (1.6) = 5 @ 2 surveys
Grade PG&E ‘14
1 6,887
2+ 3,621
2 7,119
3 18,591
∑ 36,218
Find Rate ≠ Coverage:
Leak Find Rate =
R&D data collected in Santa Clara "Area A"
using a sample of about 20 leaks per category *from Pilot Studies (Diablo & Sacramento)
64%
87%
95% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100%
97%
59%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leak Find Rate
# of Surveys  1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
BEST CASE* - Below Ground Leak Detection 84% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Best Case
WORST CASE - Below Ground Leak Detection 36% 59% 74% 83% 89% 93% 96% 97% Worst Case
ASSUMED CASE – Average Leak Find Rate 52% 77% 89% 95% 98% 99% 99% 100% Assumed Case
*Best & Worst case Leak Find Rates from R&D data collection. Best and worst scararios refer to the highest (Statin
Island) and lowest (Santa Clara Area A) absolute leak find rate observed for a specific area during field trials.
 # of Surveys
FindRate
WORST CASE
BEST CASE
Assumed Rate set @
midpoint mean detection
rate of best & worst cases
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
-
11,000
22,000
33,000
44,000
55,000
66,000
77,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leaks & Coverage/ Pass
Picarro Traditional Adjusted Leak Find Rate
Assumed Leak Find Ratio
 # of Surveys
Leak
Calculator:
100% Find Rate = 75,000
# of Surveys Adjusted Find Rate Picarro Traditional Leak Find Ratio
Traditional 54% 36,218 36,218 1.0
1 64% 42,609 36,218 1.2
2 87% 57,949 36,218 1.6
3 95% 63,471 36,218 1.8
4 98% 65,459 36,218 1.8
5 99% 66,175 36,218 1.8
6 100% 66,432 36,218 1.8
7 100% 66,525 36,218 1.8
8 100% 66,558 36,218 1.8
*’Below-ground leaks absolute find rate’ using
Acadia assumes that each pass creates an
independent chance to detect a particular leak.
$24.7 *
$18.9
$20.4
$20.8 $21.0 $21.3 $21.6 $21.9 $22.2
$18
$20
$22
$24
$26
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Survey Cost as Surveys Increase
Cost to Survey (as Surveys Increase)
* Numbers in Millions
 # of Surveys
Traditional survey
# of Surveys
Cost to
Survey
Cost to Investigate
& Grade
GAP Survey
Services $'s
Total Cost to
Survey
- $ 23.4 $ - $ - $ 24.7
1 $ 1.6 $ 1.0 $ 6.4 $ 18.9
2 $ 2.0 $ 1.3 $ 4.0 $ 20.4
3 $ 2.5 $ 1.4 $ 2.7 $ 20.8
4 $ 2.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 21.0
5 $ 3.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 21.3
6 $ 3.9 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 21.6
7 $ 4.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 21.9
8 $ 4.8 $ 1.5 $ 1.2 $ 22.2
Survey Cost by Type
* Numbers in Millions
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
GAP Survey Services $'s $- $6,446,970 $4,041,035 $2,744,634 $2,043,876 $1,670,139 $1,471,591 $1,354,798 $1,167,929
AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000
Cost to Investigate & Grade $- $9,566,035 $13,009,807 $14,249,566 $14,695,878 $14,856,551 $14,914,393 $14,935,216 $14,942,713
Cost to Survey $23,361,814 $1,550,500 $2,013,000 $2,475,500 $2,938,000 $3,400,500 $3,863,000 $4,325,500 $4,788,000
Total Cost to Survey $24,691,814 $18,893,505 $20,393,843 $20,799,699 $21,007,755 $21,257,190 $21,578,984 $21,945,514 $22,228,642
[CELLRANGE]*
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE]
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$24.7
$15.1
$17.0
$18.0
$18.7
$19.2 $19.7 $20.1 $20.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Survey Cost as Surveys Increase
Variability in Cost* Numbers in Millions
Blue Line = Cost Curve @ assumed Rates
Green line = (+50%) Leaks Found (more leaks = more investigation $)
Orange line = (-50%) Leaks Found (less leaks = less investigation $)
UPPER BOUND
LOWER BOUND
Possible Cost Band
$682
$533
$379
$355 $348 $348 $352 $357 $361
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cost to Survey (per Leak Found)
# of Surveys 
# of
Surveys
Total Cost to
Survey
Gradable
Leaks
Cost /
Leak
- $24,691,814 36,218 $682
1 $19,636,405 41,484 $473
2 $18,905,981 57,949 $326
3 $19,372,862 64,484 $300
4 $19,650,886 67,077 $293
5 $19,944,560 68,107 $293
6 $20,289,842 68,515 $296
7 $20,667,828 68,678 $301
8 $20,956,271 68,742 $305
$682
$533
$379
$355 $348 $348 $352 $357 $361
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cost to Survey per Leak as Surveys Increase
Variability in Cost per Leak Found
Blue Line = Cost Curve @ assumed Rates
Green line = Best Case Leaks Found (more leaks = Less $ per Leak)
Orange line = Worst Case Leaks Found (less leaks = More $ per Leak)
UPPER BOUND
LOWER BOUND
Possible Cost Band
PG&E Leak Distribution
3 2 2+ 1
7,093 13,093 8,776 3,295
MS $518 67% 67% 48% 26%
AG $2,224 19% 19% 35% 59%
BG $4,680 14% 13% 18% 15%
100% 100% 100% 100%
G3 G2 G2+ G1
34% 31% 17% 18%
Leak Repair Cost
Traditional Leaks Found  $58.6M Leak Repair Cost for PG&E (1 Year)
Distribution of Leaks by Grade based off PG&E Historical data 2012-2014
Grade 
Leak Repair
Cost by
Type:
 Leaks Detected
$57.8
$68.0
$92.5
$101.3
$104.5 $105.6 $106.0 $106.2 $106.2
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leaks Detected & Repair Cost
LeaksFound
RepairCost$’s(inMillions)
Leak Repair Cost by Type:
Meter Set $518
Above Ground $2,224
Below Ground $4,680
Blue Line = Repair Cost @ assumed Rates
Green line = Most Leaks Found (more leaks = More Repair $’s)
Orange line = Least Leaks Found (less leaks = Less Repair $’s)
Possible Cost Band
*$’s in Millions
Monetized Risk from Undetected Leaks
Monetized Leak Risk (Annual)
Grade 1 $10,000
Grade 2+ $1,500
Grade 2 $1,000
Grade 3 $100
Assumptions:
Frequency of Catastrophic incidences = 1 every 10 years
Cost to PG&E in penalties and compensations = $2.25B
Grade 1 (most Hazardous) Leaks detected / Year ~ 5,000
5 Year Repair Cycle (leak would remain undetected until next Survey) =
5 x 5,000 = 25,000
$2,250,000,000 / 25,000 / 10 ~ $9,000San Bruno Pipeline Explosion (2010)
Enterprise and Operational Risk: ”Encompasses risks that could
have a potentially catastrophic impact on public and employee
safety, reliability, customer trust or PG&E’s financial condition,
as well as other risks that arise from our operations.”
-PG&E Gas Leak Status Report
$89.2
$82.2
$39.2
$18.7
$9.0
$4.4 $2.2 $1.1 $0.6
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Leaks Detected & Monetized Risk from Undiscovered Leaks
LeaksFound
MonetizedRisk$’s(inMillions)
Monetized Leak Risk (Annual)
Grade 1 $10,000
Grade 2+ $1,500
Grade 2 $1,000
Grade 3 $100
Blue Line = Risk @ assumed Rates
Green line = BEST CASE Leaks Found (more leaks found = Less Risk)
Orange line = WORST CASE Leaks Found (less leaks found = More Risk)
Possible Cost Band
*$’s in Millions
$-
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Risk / Cost to Repair (Worst Case)
Repair Cost 1 Year RISK $'s Total RISK + Repair
Monetized Risk & Leak Repair Cost as Surveys Increase
(+50%) Leak Find Rate(-50%) Leak Find Rate
Monetized Leak Risk (Annual)
Grade 1 $10,000
Grade 2+ $1,500
Grade 2 $1,000
Grade 3 $100
Leak Repair Cost by Type:
MS $518
AG $2,224
BG $4,680
$-
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Risk / Cost to Repair (Assumed Rate)
Repair Cost 1 Year RISK $'s Total RISK + Repair
$-
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Risk / Cost to Repair (Best Case)
Repair Cost 1 Year RISK $'s Total RISK + Repair
Total Potential Cost (as Surveys Increase)
*$’s in Millions
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
RISK $'s Total $87.2 $80.4 $38.3 $18.3 $8.8 $4.3 $2.1 $1.1 $0.6
Total Cost to Fix (20% Plan) $57.8 $62.7 $92.5 $106.7 $113.5 $116.7 $118.2 $119.0 $119.3
Total Survey/ Investigate Cost $24.7 $19.1 $21.0 $22.3 $22.9 $23.2 $23.3 $23.6 $23.8
TOTAL COST $169.7 $162.1 $151.9 $147.4 $145.2 $144.2 $143.7 $143.6 $143.7
$169.7
$162.1
$151.9 $147.4 $145.2 $144.2 $143.7 $143.6 $143.7
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
$180.0
TOTAL COST: SURVEY, INVESTIGATE, REPAIR & RISK
Total Survey/ Investigate Cost Total Cost to Fix (20% Plan) RISK $'s Total TOTAL COST
$169.7 *
$162.1
$151.9
$147.4
$145.2 $144.2 $143.7 $143.6 $143.7
$120.0
$130.0
$140.0
$150.0
$160.0
$170.0
$180.0
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Total Potential Cost Variability
Traditional
 # of Surveys
Worst Case: Least Leaks Found
Best Case: Most Leaks Found
*$’s in Millions
**Total Cost = Survey & Investigation + Repair + Risk
Appendix
PG&E Leaks by Grade
PG&E Breakout: 2012 2013 2014
Grade 1 : 10% 26% 19%
Grade 2+: 27% 14% 10%
Grade 2 : 41% 32% 20%
Grade 3 : 22% 28% 51%**
PG&E Leak Count* (by Grade)
Grade 2012 2013 2014
1 3,295 7,983 6,875
2+ 8,776 4,173 3,608
2 13,093 9,830 7,154
3 7,093 10,436 18,819
∑ 32,257 32,422 36,456
Grade 1 : 18%
Grade 2+: 17%
Grade 2 : 31%
Grade 3 : 34%
18%
17%
31%
34%
Grade 1 Grade 2+
Grade 2+ Grade 3
*PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY GAS LEAK REPORTS 2012-14 (Amended)
**Increase in Grade 3 Leaks due to adoption of Picarro Technology (187k Services, ¼ of total in 2014)
3 Year Average of Leak by
Grade for PG&E
Possible PG&E Leak Grade Detection Degradation
PG&E Breakout: 2012 2013 2014
Grade 1 : 10% 26% 19%
Grade 2+: 27% 14% 10%
Grade 2 : 41% 32% 20%
Grade 3 : 22% 28% 51%**
PG&E Leak Count* (by Grade)
Grade 2012 2013 2014
1 3,295 8,016 6,887
2+ 8,776 4,227 3,621
2 13,093 9,892 7,119
3 7,093 9,180 18,591
Year: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% G3: 22% 28% 51% ? ?
# of Svcs: - - 187K 500K 700K
% Total: - - 26% 70% 100%
What % of leaks detected from
PG&E will be Grade 3 in 2016 when
100% of Services surveyed are
surveyed using Picarro Tech?
* Data from PG&E Gas Leak Reports 2012-14
Survey Cost (Two Surveys vs. Three) =
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
Traditional
1
2
3
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
Traditional 1 2 3
AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000
GAP Survey Services $'s $- $6,446,970 $4,041,035 $2,744,634
Cost to Investigate & Grade $- $10,321,735 $11,534,745 $12,835,528
Cost to Survey $23,361,814 $1,537,700 $2,000,200 $2,462,700
Total Possible Cost (Two Surveys vs. Three) =
$-
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
Traditional 1
2
3
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
Traditional 1 2 3
Repair Cost $57,813,484 $66,219,181 $92,501,574 $102,933,056
Total Cost to Survey $24,691,814 $19,636,405 $18,905,981 $19,372,862
Monetized Risk from Unfixed Leaks $75,378,868 $63,270,566 $25,411,108 $10,384,689
Leak Detection (Picarro vs. Traditional)
• Survey Speed: (does not include Investigation Time)
• 500 services/ hour (Picarro)*
• 10-11 services/ hour (Traditional)
Efficiencies:
50x Faster
survey speed
80x Better
Leak Detection
*Source: SB 1371 Natural Gas Leakage Abatement Best Practices
PG&E presentation to the American Gas Association (AGA), October 5, 2014
• Leak Detection
• 32 leaks per hour (Picarro)
• 0.4 leaks/ hour (Traditional)
Survey Rate –
10 services / Hr.
Hours of Survey
– 50,000
Leaks Found
per Service - .4
*PG&E: In 2015, PG&E plans to utilize the advanced leak detection technology in 16 divisions, surveying nearly 500,000 services, or
approximately 50 percent of the services that are required to be inspected.
Survey Rate –
500 services / Hr.
Hours of
Survey – 1,000
Leaks found
per service –
36
20,000 Leaks
Survey Time Assumptions
Picarro vs. Traditional
500,000 Services
1 Year of Survey
= 1.6x More Leaks
32,000 Leaks
Picarro:
Traditional:
500,000 Services
1 Year of Survey
Alternative Approach to Leak by Grade
Grade
Traditional
Only
Picarro
Only
Common
Grade 1 n/a 7 n/a
Grade 2+ 0 10 1
Grade 2 7 67 24
Grade 3 16 74 12
Meter Set 187 239 11
Customer Equipment 0 9 0
Totals 210 406 48
Picarro Acadia & Original Evaluation Distribution
Gradable Leaks (33%)
Meter Set / Customer (67%)
LISA
30%
No Gas
Found
70% Leak
Detected
33%
Gradable Leaks
67%
Meter Set, Leak on
Customer Side & Other
NGF
Leak
Detected
70%
Gradable
Leak
33%
MS / Customer
67%

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Cost Curve Presentation 11.20.15

  • 1. Compliance Survey Cost Curve Analysis
  • 2. Variables used to Determine Cost to Survey VARIABLES: SOURCE: $185.00 DET Planned Rate/ Hour PG&E Report 2012 25.0 Minutes to Grade & Inv. LISA Cluster Field Trial Time Estimates 70% % of LISA's Containing Gas Assumption based on historical performance 9.9 Survey Rate (Services/Hr.) PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14 $1,330,000 AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost PG&E (70% of 714K Services) 500,000 Services to Survey in 2015 PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14 80% Efficiency (Survey) PG&E Assumed Survey Efficiency 2.58 LISA Clusters per Gradable Leak Diablo & Sacramento Pilot Testing 500.0 Picarro Survey Services/ Hour PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14 $1,088,000 Capital Investment 80% Capitalized (+ 1st year Services) ‘In 2015, PG&E plans to utilize the advanced leak detection technology in 16 divisions, surveying nearly 500,000 services, or (70 percent) of the services that are required to be inspected.’ -PG&E Gas Leak Report 2013-14
  • 3. Cost to Survey= 1st Year Capital Investment ($1.1M)* Services to survey (500K) / Services/ Hour (500) x Planned hourly rate ($185) x # of Surveys x 2 Passes per Survey/ Efficiency (80%) Survey Cost (using Gradable Leaks) = LISAs to Investigate= Gradable Leaks (Leak Find Ratio) x LISAs per Gradable Leak (4.1x) LISA Investigation Hours= LISAs to Investigate x Rate in LISA per Hour (25/60) Cost to Investigate & Grade = LISA Investigation Hours x Planned Hourly Rate ($185) GAP Survey Services= (1-Coverage) x Total Services Surveyed (500K) GAP Survey Time= GAP Survey Services x Survey Rate in Services per Hour (9.9) GAP Survey $'s= GAP Survey Time x Planned Rate ($185) Survey Investigate & Grade GAP Survey *Capital treatment: Capitalize 80% of contract (HW and 5 Year SW Term License) (80% of $1.6M + 1st Year of 5 year Service Plan ($64K) = $1.1M) Depreciation of capital asset over length of contract - 5 year useful life.
  • 4. LISA’s  Gradable Leaks* LISA 30% No Gas Found 70% Leak Detected NGF 30% Leak Detected 70% 35% Gradable Leaks 65% Meter Set, Leak on Customer Side & Other Gradable Leak 35% MS / Customer 65% 100 LISAs 30 70 Leaks 45.524.5 Gradable 100 LISAs / 24.5 Gradable Leaks* = 4.1 LISAs per Gradable Leaks * Data from Diablo & Sacramento Pilot Testing
  • 5. Leak Calculator: 100% Find Rate = 75,000 # of Surveys Adjusted Find Rate Picarro Traditional Leak Find Ratio Traditional 48% 36,218 36,218 1.0 1 52% 39,258 36,218 1.1 2 77% 57,949 36,218 1.6 3 89% 66,847 36,218 1.8 4 95% 71,084 36,218 2.0 5 98% 73,101 36,218 2.0 6 99% 74,062 36,218 2.0 7 99% 74,519 36,218 2.1 8 100% 74,736 36,218 2.1 Leak Calculator Traditional Leaks Fixed (PG&E 2014) = 36,218 We Know… 1.6x more leaks* than traditional @ 2 Surveys Leak Find Ratio @ 2 Surveys = 1.6x 36,218 Traditional leaks x (1.6) = 5 @ 2 surveys Grade PG&E ‘14 1 6,887 2+ 3,621 2 7,119 3 18,591 ∑ 36,218 Find Rate ≠ Coverage: Leak Find Rate = R&D data collected in Santa Clara "Area A" using a sample of about 20 leaks per category *from Pilot Studies (Diablo & Sacramento)
  • 6. 64% 87% 95% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100% 97% 59% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Leak Find Rate # of Surveys  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th BEST CASE* - Below Ground Leak Detection 84% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Best Case WORST CASE - Below Ground Leak Detection 36% 59% 74% 83% 89% 93% 96% 97% Worst Case ASSUMED CASE – Average Leak Find Rate 52% 77% 89% 95% 98% 99% 99% 100% Assumed Case *Best & Worst case Leak Find Rates from R&D data collection. Best and worst scararios refer to the highest (Statin Island) and lowest (Santa Clara Area A) absolute leak find rate observed for a specific area during field trials.  # of Surveys FindRate WORST CASE BEST CASE Assumed Rate set @ midpoint mean detection rate of best & worst cases
  • 7. [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] [CELLRANGE ] 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% - 11,000 22,000 33,000 44,000 55,000 66,000 77,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Leaks & Coverage/ Pass Picarro Traditional Adjusted Leak Find Rate Assumed Leak Find Ratio  # of Surveys Leak Calculator: 100% Find Rate = 75,000 # of Surveys Adjusted Find Rate Picarro Traditional Leak Find Ratio Traditional 54% 36,218 36,218 1.0 1 64% 42,609 36,218 1.2 2 87% 57,949 36,218 1.6 3 95% 63,471 36,218 1.8 4 98% 65,459 36,218 1.8 5 99% 66,175 36,218 1.8 6 100% 66,432 36,218 1.8 7 100% 66,525 36,218 1.8 8 100% 66,558 36,218 1.8 *’Below-ground leaks absolute find rate’ using Acadia assumes that each pass creates an independent chance to detect a particular leak.
  • 8. $24.7 * $18.9 $20.4 $20.8 $21.0 $21.3 $21.6 $21.9 $22.2 $18 $20 $22 $24 $26 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Survey Cost as Surveys Increase Cost to Survey (as Surveys Increase) * Numbers in Millions  # of Surveys Traditional survey # of Surveys Cost to Survey Cost to Investigate & Grade GAP Survey Services $'s Total Cost to Survey - $ 23.4 $ - $ - $ 24.7 1 $ 1.6 $ 1.0 $ 6.4 $ 18.9 2 $ 2.0 $ 1.3 $ 4.0 $ 20.4 3 $ 2.5 $ 1.4 $ 2.7 $ 20.8 4 $ 2.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 21.0 5 $ 3.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 21.3 6 $ 3.9 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 21.6 7 $ 4.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 21.9 8 $ 4.8 $ 1.5 $ 1.2 $ 22.2
  • 9. Survey Cost by Type * Numbers in Millions - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 GAP Survey Services $'s $- $6,446,970 $4,041,035 $2,744,634 $2,043,876 $1,670,139 $1,471,591 $1,354,798 $1,167,929 AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 Cost to Investigate & Grade $- $9,566,035 $13,009,807 $14,249,566 $14,695,878 $14,856,551 $14,914,393 $14,935,216 $14,942,713 Cost to Survey $23,361,814 $1,550,500 $2,013,000 $2,475,500 $2,938,000 $3,400,500 $3,863,000 $4,325,500 $4,788,000 Total Cost to Survey $24,691,814 $18,893,505 $20,393,843 $20,799,699 $21,007,755 $21,257,190 $21,578,984 $21,945,514 $22,228,642 [CELLRANGE]* [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] $- $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000
  • 10. $24.7 $15.1 $17.0 $18.0 $18.7 $19.2 $19.7 $20.1 $20.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Survey Cost as Surveys Increase Variability in Cost* Numbers in Millions Blue Line = Cost Curve @ assumed Rates Green line = (+50%) Leaks Found (more leaks = more investigation $) Orange line = (-50%) Leaks Found (less leaks = less investigation $) UPPER BOUND LOWER BOUND Possible Cost Band
  • 11. $682 $533 $379 $355 $348 $348 $352 $357 $361 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cost to Survey (per Leak Found) # of Surveys  # of Surveys Total Cost to Survey Gradable Leaks Cost / Leak - $24,691,814 36,218 $682 1 $19,636,405 41,484 $473 2 $18,905,981 57,949 $326 3 $19,372,862 64,484 $300 4 $19,650,886 67,077 $293 5 $19,944,560 68,107 $293 6 $20,289,842 68,515 $296 7 $20,667,828 68,678 $301 8 $20,956,271 68,742 $305
  • 12. $682 $533 $379 $355 $348 $348 $352 $357 $361 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cost to Survey per Leak as Surveys Increase Variability in Cost per Leak Found Blue Line = Cost Curve @ assumed Rates Green line = Best Case Leaks Found (more leaks = Less $ per Leak) Orange line = Worst Case Leaks Found (less leaks = More $ per Leak) UPPER BOUND LOWER BOUND Possible Cost Band
  • 13. PG&E Leak Distribution 3 2 2+ 1 7,093 13,093 8,776 3,295 MS $518 67% 67% 48% 26% AG $2,224 19% 19% 35% 59% BG $4,680 14% 13% 18% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% G3 G2 G2+ G1 34% 31% 17% 18% Leak Repair Cost Traditional Leaks Found  $58.6M Leak Repair Cost for PG&E (1 Year) Distribution of Leaks by Grade based off PG&E Historical data 2012-2014 Grade  Leak Repair Cost by Type:  Leaks Detected
  • 14. $57.8 $68.0 $92.5 $101.3 $104.5 $105.6 $106.0 $106.2 $106.2 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 $- $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0 $100.0 $120.0 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Leaks Detected & Repair Cost LeaksFound RepairCost$’s(inMillions) Leak Repair Cost by Type: Meter Set $518 Above Ground $2,224 Below Ground $4,680 Blue Line = Repair Cost @ assumed Rates Green line = Most Leaks Found (more leaks = More Repair $’s) Orange line = Least Leaks Found (less leaks = Less Repair $’s) Possible Cost Band *$’s in Millions
  • 15. Monetized Risk from Undetected Leaks Monetized Leak Risk (Annual) Grade 1 $10,000 Grade 2+ $1,500 Grade 2 $1,000 Grade 3 $100 Assumptions: Frequency of Catastrophic incidences = 1 every 10 years Cost to PG&E in penalties and compensations = $2.25B Grade 1 (most Hazardous) Leaks detected / Year ~ 5,000 5 Year Repair Cycle (leak would remain undetected until next Survey) = 5 x 5,000 = 25,000 $2,250,000,000 / 25,000 / 10 ~ $9,000San Bruno Pipeline Explosion (2010) Enterprise and Operational Risk: ”Encompasses risks that could have a potentially catastrophic impact on public and employee safety, reliability, customer trust or PG&E’s financial condition, as well as other risks that arise from our operations.” -PG&E Gas Leak Status Report
  • 16. $89.2 $82.2 $39.2 $18.7 $9.0 $4.4 $2.2 $1.1 $0.6 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 $- $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0 $100.0 $120.0 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Leaks Detected & Monetized Risk from Undiscovered Leaks LeaksFound MonetizedRisk$’s(inMillions) Monetized Leak Risk (Annual) Grade 1 $10,000 Grade 2+ $1,500 Grade 2 $1,000 Grade 3 $100 Blue Line = Risk @ assumed Rates Green line = BEST CASE Leaks Found (more leaks found = Less Risk) Orange line = WORST CASE Leaks Found (less leaks found = More Risk) Possible Cost Band *$’s in Millions
  • 17. $- $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Risk / Cost to Repair (Worst Case) Repair Cost 1 Year RISK $'s Total RISK + Repair Monetized Risk & Leak Repair Cost as Surveys Increase (+50%) Leak Find Rate(-50%) Leak Find Rate Monetized Leak Risk (Annual) Grade 1 $10,000 Grade 2+ $1,500 Grade 2 $1,000 Grade 3 $100 Leak Repair Cost by Type: MS $518 AG $2,224 BG $4,680 $- $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Risk / Cost to Repair (Assumed Rate) Repair Cost 1 Year RISK $'s Total RISK + Repair $- $20,000,000 $40,000,000 $60,000,000 $80,000,000 $100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000 $160,000,000 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Risk / Cost to Repair (Best Case) Repair Cost 1 Year RISK $'s Total RISK + Repair
  • 18. Total Potential Cost (as Surveys Increase) *$’s in Millions - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RISK $'s Total $87.2 $80.4 $38.3 $18.3 $8.8 $4.3 $2.1 $1.1 $0.6 Total Cost to Fix (20% Plan) $57.8 $62.7 $92.5 $106.7 $113.5 $116.7 $118.2 $119.0 $119.3 Total Survey/ Investigate Cost $24.7 $19.1 $21.0 $22.3 $22.9 $23.2 $23.3 $23.6 $23.8 TOTAL COST $169.7 $162.1 $151.9 $147.4 $145.2 $144.2 $143.7 $143.6 $143.7 $169.7 $162.1 $151.9 $147.4 $145.2 $144.2 $143.7 $143.6 $143.7 $- $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0 $100.0 $120.0 $140.0 $160.0 $180.0 TOTAL COST: SURVEY, INVESTIGATE, REPAIR & RISK Total Survey/ Investigate Cost Total Cost to Fix (20% Plan) RISK $'s Total TOTAL COST
  • 19. $169.7 * $162.1 $151.9 $147.4 $145.2 $144.2 $143.7 $143.6 $143.7 $120.0 $130.0 $140.0 $150.0 $160.0 $170.0 $180.0 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total Potential Cost Variability Traditional  # of Surveys Worst Case: Least Leaks Found Best Case: Most Leaks Found *$’s in Millions **Total Cost = Survey & Investigation + Repair + Risk
  • 21. PG&E Leaks by Grade PG&E Breakout: 2012 2013 2014 Grade 1 : 10% 26% 19% Grade 2+: 27% 14% 10% Grade 2 : 41% 32% 20% Grade 3 : 22% 28% 51%** PG&E Leak Count* (by Grade) Grade 2012 2013 2014 1 3,295 7,983 6,875 2+ 8,776 4,173 3,608 2 13,093 9,830 7,154 3 7,093 10,436 18,819 ∑ 32,257 32,422 36,456 Grade 1 : 18% Grade 2+: 17% Grade 2 : 31% Grade 3 : 34% 18% 17% 31% 34% Grade 1 Grade 2+ Grade 2+ Grade 3 *PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY GAS LEAK REPORTS 2012-14 (Amended) **Increase in Grade 3 Leaks due to adoption of Picarro Technology (187k Services, ¼ of total in 2014) 3 Year Average of Leak by Grade for PG&E
  • 22. Possible PG&E Leak Grade Detection Degradation PG&E Breakout: 2012 2013 2014 Grade 1 : 10% 26% 19% Grade 2+: 27% 14% 10% Grade 2 : 41% 32% 20% Grade 3 : 22% 28% 51%** PG&E Leak Count* (by Grade) Grade 2012 2013 2014 1 3,295 8,016 6,887 2+ 8,776 4,227 3,621 2 13,093 9,892 7,119 3 7,093 9,180 18,591 Year: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % G3: 22% 28% 51% ? ? # of Svcs: - - 187K 500K 700K % Total: - - 26% 70% 100% What % of leaks detected from PG&E will be Grade 3 in 2016 when 100% of Services surveyed are surveyed using Picarro Tech? * Data from PG&E Gas Leak Reports 2012-14
  • 23. Survey Cost (Two Surveys vs. Three) = $- $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 Traditional 1 2 3 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Traditional 1 2 3 AC '5 Foot Survey' Inspection Cost $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 $1,330,000 GAP Survey Services $'s $- $6,446,970 $4,041,035 $2,744,634 Cost to Investigate & Grade $- $10,321,735 $11,534,745 $12,835,528 Cost to Survey $23,361,814 $1,537,700 $2,000,200 $2,462,700
  • 24. Total Possible Cost (Two Surveys vs. Three) = $- $20,000,000 $40,000,000 $60,000,000 $80,000,000 $100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000 $160,000,000 Traditional 1 2 3 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Traditional 1 2 3 Repair Cost $57,813,484 $66,219,181 $92,501,574 $102,933,056 Total Cost to Survey $24,691,814 $19,636,405 $18,905,981 $19,372,862 Monetized Risk from Unfixed Leaks $75,378,868 $63,270,566 $25,411,108 $10,384,689
  • 25. Leak Detection (Picarro vs. Traditional) • Survey Speed: (does not include Investigation Time) • 500 services/ hour (Picarro)* • 10-11 services/ hour (Traditional) Efficiencies: 50x Faster survey speed 80x Better Leak Detection *Source: SB 1371 Natural Gas Leakage Abatement Best Practices PG&E presentation to the American Gas Association (AGA), October 5, 2014 • Leak Detection • 32 leaks per hour (Picarro) • 0.4 leaks/ hour (Traditional)
  • 26. Survey Rate – 10 services / Hr. Hours of Survey – 50,000 Leaks Found per Service - .4 *PG&E: In 2015, PG&E plans to utilize the advanced leak detection technology in 16 divisions, surveying nearly 500,000 services, or approximately 50 percent of the services that are required to be inspected. Survey Rate – 500 services / Hr. Hours of Survey – 1,000 Leaks found per service – 36 20,000 Leaks Survey Time Assumptions Picarro vs. Traditional 500,000 Services 1 Year of Survey = 1.6x More Leaks 32,000 Leaks Picarro: Traditional: 500,000 Services 1 Year of Survey
  • 27. Alternative Approach to Leak by Grade Grade Traditional Only Picarro Only Common Grade 1 n/a 7 n/a Grade 2+ 0 10 1 Grade 2 7 67 24 Grade 3 16 74 12 Meter Set 187 239 11 Customer Equipment 0 9 0 Totals 210 406 48 Picarro Acadia & Original Evaluation Distribution Gradable Leaks (33%) Meter Set / Customer (67%) LISA 30% No Gas Found 70% Leak Detected 33% Gradable Leaks 67% Meter Set, Leak on Customer Side & Other NGF Leak Detected 70% Gradable Leak 33% MS / Customer 67%

Editor's Notes

  1. 500k surveys
  2. Start with the assumption that after 2 surveys = Leak find Rate is 1.7x As the # of Surveys increases, absolute find rate (% chance of finding a leak after x passes) increases
  3. Coverage is a rough estimation based on the P3100-baseline FOV model and that it will updated for P3100-modified when Ben's analysis is complete
  4. The reason we used the three year average is because the model would account for a greater percentage grade 3 leaks, but not more leaks in total. The # of leaks is determined by our Leak Find Ratio (as # of Surveys increases)