4/21/15 - Framework's Tampa Bay/Westshore Multi-Family Update
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Framework's synopsis of national and local trends and challenges and their effect on the Tampa Bay multi-family development scene.
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4/21/15 - Framework's Tampa Bay/Westshore Multi-Family Update
- 1. TAMPA / WESTSHORE MULTI-FAMILY UPDATE Presented by: Phillip A. Smith Westshore Development Forum April 21, 2015
- 2. TOPICS ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` • Economic Trends • Jobs, the Renter, and the Investor • Rent Growth • Regional Job Growth • Tampa’s Supply & Demand • Challenges Facing our Rental Market • Pipeline
- 3. NATIONAL TRENDS ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` Jobs • As of year-end 2014, US recovered 88% of jobs lost in the recession The Renter • Millenials • Stagnant wages • Pressure to repay over $1 trillion in student loans The Investor • Increased pension, endowment and life co. capital • Family office/private wealth • Increased asset sale prices and demand for new projects Sources: Wall Street Journal, PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015, Marcus & Millichap National Apartment Report • Expanding mature renter • The “golf course retirement” model losing its luster • Current rent-by-choice lifestyle offers more than in the past
- 4. NATIONAL TRENDS—Rent Growth 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% Source: Axiometrics, Inc. NATIONAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
- 5. REGIONAL JOB GROWTH ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` FLORIDA * SOUTHEAST US Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 YOYGrowth YOYGrowth Jobs (1,000s) Jobs (1,000s) Orlando Miami Jacksonville Tallahassee Palm Bay Naples Tampa (5.3% Unemployment) Dallas Atlanta Charlotte Raleigh Austin Houston Memphis Nashville Columbia Greenville Tampa *But, biggest recent job creation was in Leisure & Hospitality, and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (includes Retail). CONSUMER CONFIDENCE-DRIVEN GROWTH
- 6. THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` Source: ARA Florida Multifamily Snapshot Q1 2015 SUPPLY HIGHLIGHTS Total Inventory: 157,687 units Peak Inventory: 159,296 units (2004) Class A Occupancy: 95.4% '14 Production: 5,000 units (approx.) '15-'16 Production: 3,000-3,500 units (projected) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Annual Average ‘00-’14 Annual Average ‘00-’05 TAMPA APARTMENT DELIVERIES
- 7. THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` WESTSHORE’S SUPPLY PIPELINE 4310 Spruce 262 units Crescent Westshore 374 units Grady Square 557 units Varela 350 units 3 2 6 1 4 5 4 2 1 6 7 3 Rocky Point Redstone/Austin7 5 MetWest 254 units
- 8. THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: Buying @ $1,500/mo. $200,000 FHA MORTGAGE @ 5.049% Median Price per SF: $106 Median Size @ $200k: 1,887 SF CASH REQUIRED AT CLOSING Down Payment: $7,000 Origination Fee: $1,005 Transfer Taxes: $1,100 Insurance: $1,476 Deposits & Misc. Fees: $5,269 TOTAL: $15,850 MONTHLY HOUSING EXPENSES Mortgage Pmt: $938 Taxes: $287 Insurance: $246 TOTAL: $1,471 Source: Zillow.com and Zillow Real Estate Research
- 9. THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` METRO AREA TYPICAL RENT/SF UNIT SIZE @ $1,500/MO. Westshore $1.60 938 SF Downtown Tampa $1.95 769 SF Channelside $2.10 714 SF SoHo/Bayshore $2.20 682 SF TYPICAL AMENITIES - On-site Gym - On-site Spa - Pool - Demonstration Kitchens - Balconies/Terraces - Gaming Areas - Clubhouses - Pet Spas, Dog Parks TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: Renting @ $1,500/mo.
- 10. TAMPA’S AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGE Source: Zillow Real Estate Research Atlanta Dallas Nashville Jacksonville Sacramento Tampa = 32% of mo. income on rentPhoenix Chicago Philadelphia Boston Seattle Portland
- 11. WESTSHORE’S WALKABILITY CHALLENGE ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` Westshore delivers on accessibility but should become more pedestrian-friendly
- 12. ACTIVE PROJECTS AT FRAMEWORK GROUPVARELA • Lois Ave & Spruce St • 350 Units • 5-story w/ structured parking • Completion 2015 4310 SPRUCE • 262 Units • 5-story w/ structured parking • Completion 2016 HARBOUR ISLAND • Knights Run & Harbour Post • 235 Units • 21-story high rise • Completion 2016 ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `
- 13. ON THE BOARD AT FRAMEWORK GROUP DENTIAL PROJECT 4750 New Broad Street; Orlando, Florida 32814 Tel: 407.422.3330 | Fax: 407.422.3329 | www.MSCWinc.com NOTE: THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS DOCUMENT SHOULD BE TREATED AS CONCEPTUAL ONLYAND MAYBE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON MORE DET AILED SURVEY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SPECIFIC BUILDING PRODUCT INFORMATION. © 2006 MSCW , INC. PRO JECT NUMBER: 070121 DATE: 07/16/2007 FILE PATH : G:Jobs07070121Creative VIEW 1 -FROM EAST SIDE OF LAKE COPELAND YBOR CITY SARASOTA ORLANDO ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `
- 14. CONCLUSION ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` • Investment in the multi-family sector is still robust; • Rent growth is steady; • Supply appears to be in check in terms of total numbers, but mostly at the high-end; • Regional job growth is steady, but mostly at the low-end; • Need more new high-quality jobs; • Wages are still stagnant, creating future affordability concerns; • Need to maintain continued focus on Westshore’s urban plan, transportation and walkability solutions to maintain competitive edge for attracting new businesses.