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Innovest's KnoWhen Analysis Explained.
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Innovest282 pictonics1
1.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 Visualization Session Report February 2004 BuySellHoldAdvice.comBuySellHoldAdvice.com
2.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 Context • Business Context • Communication Goal • How to use this document Audience KN: Current Understanding N: Current Understanding O: Current Understanding WHE: Current Understanding Potential Visual Concepts Overview: Baseball Metaphor KN: Baseball Metaphor N: Baseball Metaphor O: Baseball Metaphor WHE: Baseball Metaphor Overview: Journey/Car Metaphor KN: Journey/Car Metaphor N: Journey/Car Metaphor O: Journey/Car Metaphor WHE: Journey/Car Metaphor Getting Started/No Metaphor Conclusion XPLANATiONs Next Steps pg. 1 pg. 2 pg. 3 pg. 4 pg. 5 pg. 6 pg. 8 pg. 9 pg. 10 pg. 11 pg. 12 pg. 13 pg. 14 pg. 15 pg. 16 pg. 17 pg. 18 pg. 20 pg. 21 Table of Contents
3.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 How to Use this Document Through this report, XPLANE intends to: • Capture information exchanged at the recent session in our St. Louis Offices. • Begin to prioritize information based on the communication goals established • Propose potential visual metaphors, analogies, and/or structures to be considered and implemented once an XPLANATiON project has commenced. We will work with you to review this document to ensure it is clear and accurate. Please insert comments directly into this document when possible (using Adobe Acrobat). You may also want to provide feedback by marking and faxing pages to us prior to our next call. Please pay special attention to new content such as the communication metrics on the final page and the goal of the newly recommended XPLANATiON. Upon confirmation of the document's accuracy, we will determine our next steps together and proceed accordingly. Business Context/Industry Drivers BuySellHoldAdvice.com (BSHA.com) is the reincarnation of technology and applications developed by Robert Orange and Innovest Quantitative long before the internet was born. BSHA.com is currently functional and available to the public. A few key partner brokerages have signed on and are using the system at a higher level (portfolio management, receiving alerts, etc.). You have said that Innovest wants to grow the BuySellHoldAdvice.com customer base to include the "high rollers" of the broker and institutional investor world. Selling customers on the offering is not a challenge once they see that it really works. However, the curious customer wants to know HOW it works - they want a peek under the hood of the machine. At this point in the sale, you currently use Robert's skills as the creator and visionary behind the system to explain the KNO-WHEN numbers and their significance to the end user's knowledge of a stock. This requires anywhere from 10 minutes to an hour of your time and must be repeated over and over to each customer. Communication Goal To help others distribute the KNO-WHEN story and lessen dependence on Robert, you require: • A reusable, clear visual system that educates each new customer or prospect without Robert's intervention. • A way to deploy this visual system via WebEx meetings and/or face-to-face meetings. The visuals need to communicate: • An introductory level of "proof" that a LOT of effort and value goes into the daily creation of the KNO- WHEN numbers (125 calculations per issue x 8,052 issues, calculated DAILY often tracking FOUR timeframes to formulate a final value.) • The significance of each "letter" within a stock's lifecycle • An introduction into a few specific numbers the user will experience on the website Context Page 1
4.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 Concerns of the Audience BROKER INDEPENDENT INVESTOR CEOINSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR I need to monitor my portfolio. I need to gather better information How can I keep and get new customers? How can I justify my decisions and advice? I need to increase ROI I need to provide the right ideas to my customers I need access to more data Which stocks should I be interested in? How can I get the most from each trade? I must monitor stock activity I need to be more successful with my trades What do people think of my stock? My shareholders and stakeholders need help with pensions and investments How do I avoid a conflict between success and legality? I must keep my brand/image positive! What are my own opinions? How can I minimize my risk? What do they think of my portfolio? Page 2
5.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 KN Current Understanding Hope Optimism Enthusiasm Bravado Ecstasy Euphoria Doubt Disappointment Despair Confusion Fear Panic Reversal ReversalEmerging EmergingExtending Top Extending Bottom What KN Means KN numbers measure the "current state" of activity on a given issue (stock). These numbers act as road signs to tell you the specifics of what is happening within the general trend - "You are here." Page 3 Accumulation (Up Trend) Distribution (Down Trend)
6.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 N Current Understanding The N Number N numbers help show the long term perspective of the KN trends. The even numbers are favorable and the odd numbers are negative. These numbers can help you determine when a stock will bottom out and when it will peak by showing you how well established the pattern is. Hope Optimism Enthusiasm Bravado Ecstasy Euphoria Doubt Disappointment Despair Confusion Fear Panic Reversal ReversalEmerging EmergingExtending Top Extending Bottom Page 4 1 2 8 0 6 4 Overbought, rewards limited Accumulation 50-day moving average Distribution Appreciation favored Mark up trend probably Trending up favored Rallying from oversold Oversold, risk limited 1 5 9 7 3 4 Overbought, rewards limited Reacting from overbought Consolidating testing Correction continues Deterioration favored Oversold, risk limited
7.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 O Current Understanding Information You Act On ACTION TO BE TAKEN: The "O" number provides users with the day's recommended action (act or hold). WHEN TO TAKE IT: "O" also tells the user whether the advice has been ongoing or if it is the first day. This factor is key to being able to provide users with "alerts" when advice changes. It also shows the level of trust BuySellHoldAdvice.com places in its prescriptive advice. It will not change its recommendation until there is a clear, persistent indication that action is best. THE CONTEXT OF THE ACTION: "O" also tells the user whether the stock price on that day is above or below 50 day moving average (the averaged prices from the 50 days leading up to today). Stocks performing above the average may be more likely to start a trend in this direction and therefore the recommendation is stronger when a stock is above its average. BuySellHoldAdvice.com uses a 50 day moving average rather than 20, 30 or 200 - 50 days is what the average person can remember, and it's all about how people perceive a stock, right?! Page 5 Act (buy or sell) Today is first day of recommendation Moving average Close price 50 days ago Close price today Wait (Hold)= Today is NOT first day of recommendation = 1 2 5 6 3 4 7 8
8.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 WHE Current Understanding Point of Diminishing Gains Speed increasing Normal Subnormal Subnormal Abnormal 30% (-7) 100% (-3) 150% (-2) 200% (-1) 150% (2) 200% (1) 100% (3) 30% (7) Abnormal Moving Average Above Moving Average Normal W: Velocity Velocity is the rate of change over time compared to the expected rate of change over time. Knowing how quickly change is occuring vs. what is sustainable helps predict at which point you will reach the point of diminishing gains. Helps answer the question, "When is the stock going to quit going up/down?" The velocity is compiled using 4 different timeframes (5 day, 10 day, etc.). Competitors often rely on only 2. Innovest believes "more" isn't always "less". WHE (general notes) Compiled together, the WHE numbers present a view of the 'normality" and tendencies to remain or become abnormal. Abnormality in a stock's behavior may be a good opportunity for an investor, but it won't last long. The WHE numbers allow Innovest to "measure to predict". And the prediction is ultimately related to the level of emotional intensity surrounding a stock. Page 6 H: Disparity Disparity is deviation compared to expected deviation from the moving average. High levels of deviation may produce desirable conditions, but they are not sustainable. E: Price & Volume Activity The number E is a price/volume "alert" that measures price and volume change compared to expected price and volume change. It is measured over a 6 day cycle timeperiod (a typical trading week) and looks at the magnitude and consistency of the change over those 6 days. If the levels are at least twice their norm, then "E" registers in the system as a factor. Rate of Price Change = X% = X% Expected Rate of Change Magnitude Actual Price Change Expected Price Change Average Volume Actual Volume 6-day average Level of Emotional Intensity Consistency Actual Price Devation Expected Price Deviation = X%& Actual Price Expected Price Actual Volume Expected Volume 5 days 10 days 20 days AboveMABelowMA
9.
Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 As discussed in our meeting, XPLANE recommends a KNO-WHEN overview XPLANATiON that will introduce readers to goal behind the system and how the numbers work together to provide value. XPLANE then recommends a more in-depth view of specific numbers or groups of numbers. The following pages contain rough ideas for XPLANATiONs based on information that we gathered from the visualization session. We have two recommended potential visual metaphors: Journey/Car and Baseball. KNO-WHENKNO-WHEN Potential Visual Concepts
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 KNO-WHEN Overview - Baseball metaphor Investors Face Confusion Think of managing an investment like being a baseball coach or manager who is trying to track the "value" of his players against other players on other teams. There are hundreds of statistics you could use to measure the success of an individual player from one game to the next, one season to the next. Add in calculations of an entire X person team multiplied by X players on X other teams, and historical data from all past seasons and you can see the impossibility of doing all that tracking and calculating yourself. But it's essential! How can you justify trading a player when you don't know his potential? Page 8 KN N Why KNO-WHEN? BuySellHoldAdvice.com addresses this need for extensive, trustworthy, decision- easy information. The site's engine performs 125 unique calculations DAILY using daily and historical stock price/volume data to produce the KNO- WHEN numbers. KNO-WHEN numbers are manageable and approachable to the end user and provide clear support for investment decisions. It's all about seeing trends and understanding the conditions of the current "season." The emotions and people involved in the game influence its outcome. KNO-WHEN numbers provide one of three things: What a stock is doing right now (state-of-existence/trend) What should be done with the stock and when (action and timeframe) The likelihood that what is happening will change and when it may change... (potential for change in trend) ...the likelihood of continuation of the current trend based on strength of persistence over the long term (potential for continued trend) O WHE Manager/ Coach These KNO-WHEN numbers provide a holistic view of a stock's performance and the current trading "environment" to ultimately generate a prescriptive recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the stock. Description: Projection: OR Prescription: 200% beyond expected abilities Wait today. Price is high relative to average. $$ $$$ $ Player X = extending to the top of his up-trend Player X = nearing exhaustion Player X shows continued positive support by fans. Manager/ Coach Player XRBI ERA Inn RBI SLG TB Age GDP A,E, G I want highest ROI... ??? Daily Data (8,052 issues) IN 6 Indicators OUT 125 Calculations KN O WHE N Player X Player X Player X Player P Player B Player f Player X Player X Player X Player A Player X Player X Player T Player C Player M ??? ??? ???
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004Page 9 KN: Road map of a season You are your portfolio's coach. You need a full view of each player's career and where he sits within it today to be able to form the expectations you will have for him short and long term. His value to you is not only in the intrinsic value of his skills but in how the public perceives him. The excitement and support of his fans can push his abilities just as a negative crowd can impede his performance in a game or season or even career. The emotions surrounding his career shape its path. BuySellHoldAdvice.com's "KN" numbers identify trading patterns to tell you exactly where a stock lies within the pattern and what trend applies to this state. There are a total of 46 patterns. Here are a few: 41: It all begins with HOPE: a player is beginning to reverse his bad luck. An opportunity for you to get in early in his game. 31: Player X hits the high point of his season. The fans are EUPHORIC over him. But this state isn't sustainable.... 55: Player X's fans begin to DOUBT which will eventually lead to his own DESPAIR. Looks like its time for a trade. 21: Whether on your team or not, Player X will inevitably hit a low point in his career. But he's bound to reverse his luck... Stat Facts: > KN numbers are designed to speed interpretation: First number is even = usually uptrend ex: 68, 66 First number is odd = usually downtrend ex: 11, 55, 75 > KN numbers include complex trading patterns such as new low prices and new highs. You can strengthen your decision to act based on these new areas of opportunity. Where is Player X in his career?
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004Page 10 N: Trend Persistence As "KN" provides insight into the type of trend a stock is experiencing, "N" reveals the strength of that trend. A coach is always wondering "How long will this last?" The "N" number reveals whether a stock is above or below its 50 day moving average, and whether it is in a cycle of accumulation (people are buying) or distribution (people are selling). Stocks above their 50-day average but in a down trend are at an ideal point for selling in order to minimize loss. Twenty-five calculations in total allow "N" to provide a projection of the strength of a trend, delivered to you in simple language. Stocks that are above their 50-day moving average and are in an uptrend have "worked harder" to get there and are therefore an ideal buy.
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 O: An impersonal advisor backed by solid data Daily management of your team ultimately comes down to, 'What am I going to do (or not do) today?" BuySellHoldAdvice.com becomes your 'second hand man' by providing you with clear directives. You can follow the advice knowing the system will not provide advice until it has solid, impersonal (computer calculated) evidence for the active recommendation. This recommendation combined with an understanding of the other factors affecting your team will support your decision to buy, sell, or hold an issue. The "O" number combines a current view of the 50-day moving average with many other calculations... ...and then provides you with a daily recommendation to either be active or to hold a specific issue (stock). BuySellHoldAdvice.com (your co-manager) Act (buy or sell) First day of recommendation 50 day moving average line Wait (Hold) = Following first day of recommendation = 1 3 2 4 5 6 7 8 All Possible Advice Options $4.50 $4.49 $4.35 $4.35 $4.24 $4.24 $4.24 $3.25 + + + + + + $4.80 $4.75 $4.73 $4.73 $4.73 The player is still performing above his 50 day average. As I said yesterday, there is strong evidence for an active recommendation. I'll increase Player X's salary today. TODAY: KN Page 11
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 WHE: Testing for the tendency to reverse trend W: Velocity H: Disparity E: Magnitude It's great to see trends, but when will the trend turn? Signs of erratic or unexpected "environments" can cue an investor to keep a closer eye on an investment. The WHE numbers quantify the "normalcy" of a stock to provide alerts when conditions are extreme and warrant action. Velocity is change over time versus expected change over time. It tells you how close a stock may be to reaching a diminishing rate of gain. BSHA.com measures four different time periods (5-day, 10-day, etc.) when most analysts are satisfied using two. Disparity is the actual amount of deviation from the 50-day moving average compared to the expected deviation. Every stock will deviate, but extreme deviation can signal trouble or short-term opportunity. Magnitude measures the difference in price and volume against expected p/v as measured over a 6-day trading period. It reveals erratic trading levels that may soon exhaust a trend by disturbing the supply/demand balance. Page 12
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 KNO-WHEN Overview - Journey/Car Metaphor Investors face confusion Imagine that managing an investment is like driving a car. You are at point A ( Buy Low) and want to get to Point B ( Sell High). Most of the time you can only see a small portion of the road in front of you. Bad weather and road hazards become negative factors in reaching your goal. Why KNO-WHEN? BuySellHoldAdvice.com addresses this need for extensive, trustworthy, decision- easy information. The site's engine performs 125 unique calculations DAILY using daily and historical stock price/volume data to produce the KNO- WHEN numbers. KNO-WHEN numbers are manageable and approachable to the end user and provide clear support for investment decisions. It's all about seeing trends and having a clear perspective of the market The emotions and people involved in the game influence its outcome. KNO-WHEN numbers provide one of three things: What a stock is doing right now (state-of-existence/trend) What should be done with the stock and when (action and timeframe) ...the likelihood of continuation of the current trend based on strength of persistence over the long term (potential for continued trend) Having a higher vantage point allows you to gain perspective into your trading environment. The KNOWHEN numbers help you decide to buy, sell or hold a stock. Description: The likelihood that what is happening will change and when it may change... (potential for change in trend) Projection: Prescription: KN O WHE N Page 13 O KN WHE N Plus you are surrounded by other cars, or stock brokers, who can give you mixed signals. A "Pack" mentality can develop when too many people jump on the same band-wagon.
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 KN: Journey/Car Metaphor Page 14 A Journey of Emotions Investing in a stock can become an emotional roller coaster ride. Just like when you begin a journey, or you buy low, you have lots of "Hope" that you can eventually sell high. That investment takes you many different up's and down's. The key is to sell when the stock has reached it's peak. Innovest is like a helicopter that can see stock activity in advance. It gives this information to drivers to use while they navigate their investment. The KN numbers show how a stock is currently doing. With these numbers you can tell if a stock is an uptrend emerging or a pullback with an upswing. The drivers control panel telling him his stock activity. A stop sign at the top of the road tell the driver to sell the stock before it starts dropping. The helicopter view of stock activity gives insight into a stock's trend persistence. After you stock has plummeted to the lowest it can be, panic sets in. The Accumulation side has beautiful, sunny weather. Bad weather and storm clouds start forming on the Distribution side. Once the stock has bottomed out from the distribution side, can be bought low and the cycle begins again.
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 N: Journey/Car Metaphor The N numbers represent how likely a stock's current trend is to continue. This likeliness is based on the persistence over the long term. Page 15 As the glass fills up, the stock grows and grows until it reaches it's peak. For example, a number 2, or Appreciation Favored, shows a stock that is getting ready to be overbought and get over the hump to distribution. It is getting close to the time to sell the stock. As stocks starts reacting from overbought, the trend will persist until it starts becoming a consolidated testing. Once a stock becomes overbought with limited rewards, the stock can be bought at a low price and the whole cycle begins all over again. Accumulation Distribution
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 O: Journey/Car Metaphor Page 16 Stocks that are above the 50 day moving average. These numbers also tell you if this is the first day of giving advice or a subsequent day. Numbers 1 and 3 tell you to Act, meaning to buy or sell that particular stock. Whether to act or wait is determined by the stock's relationship to the 50 day moving average. If a stocks price is below the moving average, the advice that's given becomes less reliable.
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 WHE: Journey/Car Metaphor Page 17 Even growing at top speeds, your stocks will start giving fewer and fewer gains. These gains will diminish over time. Staying within the boundaries of normal high and normal low make for a more predictable stock. Traveling outside of the normal high or low will give you unpredictable results. This compares the expected price change to the actual price change. Absolute and expected price are compared and reported on every 6 days.
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 NEW potential XPLANATiON: How to get started with BuySellHoldAdvice.com (metaphor agnostic) Visualization of the different product/ pricing levels Different types of users (individual at home, broker at work, etc.) Introduce other indicators found on the site, namely Composite numbers, to make site approachable. Page 18
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 ConclusionConclusion Summary and Next Steps
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 Communication Metrics As the measure of success of the XPLANATiONs, any viewer should be able to answer the following five questions: • How do emotions affect a stock? • What are a few of the calculations BSHA.com uses to derive KNO-WHEN? • How often are the KNO-WHEN numbers updated? • Which numbers help me identify the possibility that my stock's trend may change? • Why does BSHA.com make the KNO-WHEN numbers available to me? Final Recommended XPLANATiONs Per our meeting together in St. Louis and our exploration of the content since the meeting, our recommended XPLANATiON topics are as follows: Introduction to KNO-WHEN: Introduces investment decision-making as a complex process requiring analysis of a very large amount of information and a holistic perspective. KN: Describes the function and extensive nature of understanding trading patterns and the "state-of-existence" of an issue. O: Describes the nature of "impersonal advice" and a stock's relationship to its 50-day moving average. WHE: Describes the concepts involved in understanding velocity, disparity, and magnitude - conditions surrounding a stock within the trading environment. N: Describes the value of understanding trend persistence and wraps up the modules in a call-to-action to visit the website and test stocks on one's own. NEW! Getting Started with BuySellHoldAdvice.com: Introduces the pricing and options users can employ on the site, focusing on a matrix of "products/services" and the additional information accessed by the Composite Number system and potentially one other site feature (TBD). Page 20 XPLANATiONs ShorttermsolutionFuture
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Client: Innovest Reference number:
INNOVEST282 Project Description: KNOWHEN XPLANATiONs Session on: Feb 16, 2004 XPLANE contacts: » Alyssa Wei, Account Executive awei@xplane.com, 215/508-6736 » Casey Conroy, Concept Developer cconroy@xplane.com, 314/236-0708 | The visual thinking company. ©2004 XPLANE.com Based on Visualization Session, February 16, 2004 Next Steps: • Feedback conference call TBD: tentatively set for Tuesday 3/2 • Approve recommended XPLANATiONs and generate contract • Receive second payment for session ($4,000) • Receive 50% deposit for XPLANATiON project deliverables • Begin full XPLANATiON sketching Summary of Work Following our meeting in St. Louis, we captured and began to filter through the information presented to us and the information we proposed to you. This resulted in the "Notes" pages of this document. We then explored the visual concept discussed in the meeting (dashboard) and continued to brainstorm additional ideas. The following is our reasoning behind the two potential metaphors: • The dashboard concept was a good base from which to understand your views of each KNO-WHEN number. It soon became clear that it lacked visual grace if carried out. A dashboard with more dials and indicators than normal could appear confusing and "bulky" rather than helpful. • We found the idea of a journey and a path to be visually compelling and decided to combine it with the high- level concept of a dashboard, placing focus on the movement of the car rather than the dashboard itself. • We then jumped to a new idea and found a baseball team and coach to be effective on many levels. Baseball is universally understood to most Americans. It is a game with many statistics, and it follows a cycle of seasons and careers, just as the market does. Both elements of a team's "employment" strategy and game play offered us a myriad of visuals to employ. We have sketched these ideas at a very high level for your feedback. Please understand they are a starting point from which to proceed. We are excited to talk together about the ideas and hear your input. Thank you! Sincerely, Team Mercury Alyssa Wei and Casey Conroy Page 21 Next Steps
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