2. INTRODUCTION- COMBINE METRIC
LIMITATIONS
• For decades, the quarterback position in football has been arguably the most difficult to evaluate
for NFL teams and casual fans.
• Many of these people attempt to use combine testing as a way to discover superior quarterback
talent, but studies show that this isn’t a reliable method.
• While these scores serve as a guideline for what the NFL likes to see in the quarterbacks they
deem worth of a draft pick, scoring in this range does not offer a reasonable promise of a
franchise quarterback. Take a look at the figure below and observe which tests have a
proven correlation to quarterback success.
3. INTRODUCTION- GAME FILM LIMITATIONS
• Watching game footage has been and should be an important resource in evaluating
quarterbacks, but footage alone doesn’t always tell the full story.
• Interpretation of skills such as: arm strength, accuracy, and mobility could be subjective.
• Both the trained and untrained eye have the potential to fail when gauging potential in NFL
quarterback prospects.
• Using film in addition to a combination of physical traits, arm talent, football intellect, and
production, can yield a more reliable view of what a college quarterback can become in the
NFL.
4. HYPOTHESIS- G.O.O.D. QB’S METHOD
• Using the G.O.O.D. QBs* formula, you can combine traits and production to determine
the potential for NFL success among college QB’s.
• Game Performance
• Official height and traits
• Opponent
• Decision making skill
• *G.O.O.D. QB = Starter for five or more years, or starting QBs with less than five
years of experience with a career passer rating at or above 10 year (2006-2015)
average of 85.
5. METHODOLOGY
• I constructed a study on performance and traits among drafted quarterbacks from
2008 to 2015. I compiled this data from: www.sports-reference.com/cfb/, Ourlads.com,
and nflcombineresults.com.
• This study features data select categories associated with the G.O.O.D. QBs formula
such as completion and velocity.
• At the end of the study, each quarterback’s draft position will be juxtaposed against
their G.O.O.D QBs score. This will show the draft value of using the formula to
evaluate each quarterback.
• Each category has a figure that shows its correlation to quarterback success through.
Quarterback success is quantified by the amount of players who became G.O.O.D QBs.
6. METHODOLOGY- CONTINUED
• Each set of data separated the quarterback prospects into five categories:
• Drafted QBs: Category for quarterbacks selected at any point during the seven round
NFL draft between the 2008 and 2015. This section of every data table specifically
features quarterbacks who: were career backups, or who were in the league for more
than five years but have less than 5 years of experience as a starter. This is important
because it provides the population for this experiment and offers insight into which
quarterbacks are most often preferred by NFL evaluators.
• Starting QBs: Category for drafted quarterbacks who received eight or more starts in a
given year, but didn’t become a five or more year starter or post a passer rating on par
with the league average. This section exists to acknowledge how many quarterbacks
become starters, but can’t sustain a long career due to a lack of talent.
7. METHODOLOGY- CONTINUED
• G.O.O.D. QB’s: Number of quarterbacks within the pool of starting QBs that have
become a starter for five or more years, or quarterbacks who are: current starters, post a
passer rating on par with the league average (85), and have less than five years of
experience.
• G.O.O.D. QB %: Category that represents the percentage of the of starting QBs that
have become a starter for five or more years and post a passer rating on par with the
league average. This section quantifies the likelihood of finding a quality starting
quarterback within their category through noting percentage.
• Pro Bowl QBs: Category that reports the raw number of Pro Bowl Quarterbacks within
its’ section.
9. EXPERIMENTATION
• Before looking at how the last eight quarterback classes stack up according to the
G.O.O.D. QB’s formula, I should address a few factors that impact these rankings in
a negative way.
• Significant Injuries: Quarterbacks who suffered serious injuries in college or within the
first five years in the NFL, often underachieved according to their G.O.O.D QB scores.
• Tears to knee ligaments (ACL, MCL, PCL, meniscus, etc.), multiple broken collarbone,
and shoulder injuries requiring surgery, qualify as significant injuries.
• Quarterbacks that suffered significant injuries are highlighted in red.
10. EXPERIMENTATION CONTINUED
• NFL Combine Velocity: For quarterbacks that didn’t throw at the NFL combine, I
gave them a composite velocity score based on the eight year combine average.
• This number may over or understate the prospect’s final score.
• Prospects who were give the combine average velocity number are highlighted in
purple.
• Outliers: Occasionally, prospects who have some of the tools to be successful don’t develop into
franchise quarterbacks.
• In some cases the opposite is true, players who don’t appear to have the necessary traits,
develop into solid passers. Outliers are highlighted in yellow.
• (Prospects who are affected by two or more factors will have their name and score, or name,
score, and pick highlighted with the appropriate colors to denote the applicable factors.)
14. CONCLUSION
• By relying on tape and possibly combine performance, many NFL scouts and general
managers have cheated themselves out of thorough analysis and talked themselves into
taking risks.
Based on research associated with this study, velocity and career completion percentage
are either ignored or poorly evaluated.
0 Good QB’s registered a velocity of 53 m.p.h. or lower at the combine, yet the NFL drafted
27 of these players.
Quarterbacks shorter than 6’3” rarely become franchise quarterbacks.
Out of the 32 drafted, and seven that earned a starting role, only Russell Wilson became a long-
term starter or G.O.O.D QB.
The over-drafting of quarterbacks with inadequate velocity may be the most alarming
aspect of this trend. This trend asserts that NFL scouts value game film over combine
velocity that was recorded by professionals with proper technology.
• Sample Profiles: Jay Cutler , Christian Hackenberg , Dak Prescott
