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Semiconductor industry 2016

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Semiconductor Industry - Opportunities, Predictions and trending areas

Synopsys University Connect 2016 - Key Note Speaker

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Semiconductor industry 2016

  1. 1. + Overview of the Semiconductor Industry Synopsys University Connect 2016 June 2016 Shivoo Koteshwar Director, MediaTek shivoo.koteshwar@gmail.com www.facebook.com/shivoo.koteshwar http://www.slideshare.net/shivoo.koteshwar/
  2. 2. Shivoo + Advent of the semiconductor industry n  The application of the semiconductor has expanded extensively from radio in the 1960s to almost every electronic device that has an on-off switch in 2015.The industry is driven by technology innovation n  The industry has grown rapidly, from over $1 billion in 1964 to $337.7 billion in 2015 n  The semiconductor industry is divided into six broad categories based on the end-use application 1.  Data Processing: Servers, Computers and related hardware 2.  Communication :Wires and wireless 3.  Consumer Electronics : Household Appliances, LCD TVs, Gaming 4.  Automotive : Engine and Infotainment 5.  Military and Civil Aerospace 2
  3. 3. Shivoo + Industry Categories 3 Dominated by: US,South Korea,Japan,Taiwan and European Union
  4. 4. Shivoo + Industry Forecast: 2015–2019 n  Worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $333.7 billion in 2015, a 1.9 percent decrease from 2014 revenue of $340.3 billion, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. n  World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the 1st quarter 2016 semiconductor market declined 5.5% from 4Q 2015, the weakest first quarter since the recession in 2009. However, there are signs of improvement in 2Q 2016. The table below shows 1Q 2016 revenue growth versus 4Q 2016 and guidance for 2Q 2016 for the largest semiconductor suppliers. n  Semiconductor revenues are estimated to reach $389.4 billion in 2019, growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1% from 2014–2019. 4
  5. 5. Shivoo + Industry Forecast: 2015–2019 5
  6. 6. Shivoo + Top 10 Semiconductor Vendor By Revenue,Worldwide, 2015 (Millions of Dollars) 6
  7. 7. Shivoo + 7
  8. 8. Shivoo + Fabless-Foundry Model 8 n  Fabless company only focuses on chip designing and a foundry focuses on manufacturing the chips designed by fabless firms n  Companies that are involved in both designing and manufacturing are termed as IDMs, or integrated device manufacturers. n  What Led to the Emergence of the Fabless-Foundry Model? n  Increasing costs of R&D n  High cost of owning a fab n  While fabless companies direct all their funding in designing leading-edge technologies, foundries run fabs at full capacity by partnering with a pool of fabless companies.
  9. 9. Shivoo + Fabless-Foundry Model 9 n  Fabless model is creating a technology chasm between designers and manufacturers n  With the advancement in technology, semiconductor products are becoming more complex. This is making it even more important for researchers and manufacturers to be in the same physical location to ensure any complexities in design or manufacturing are addressed in real time. n  As this criterion is missing in the fabless-foundry model, the technology chasm between designers and manufacturers is widening, in turn increasing the product development cycle.
  10. 10. Shivoo + Future of semiconductor manufacturing 10 n  IDMs have opened their leading edge fabs to fabless firms, giving tough competition to foundries n  Instead of building their own fabs, large fabless firms may acquire foundries. This can  help companies keep their intellectual property in house while achieving production capacity. n  Foundry TSMC is considering building dedicated fabs for each customer. Rival GlobalFoundries is considering building dedicated modules within a fab for each customer
  11. 11. Shivoo + Fall of Japan Semiconductor Industry 11 1.  Japan’s semiconductor industry had focused mainly on consumer electronics. However, the personal computer boom from 1993–1996 put the US back in the top spot 2.  In 2000, the semiconductor value chain was divided into fabless companies, which design chips, and foundries, which in turn manufacture chips designed by fabless companies. 2 Main Reasons
  12. 12. Shivoo + China – A new Competition 12 n  China is now looking to reduce its dependence on foreign technology. According to Chinese news sources, the government plans to invest up to $161 billion over the next decade to promote domestic chip manufacturers n  However, China is still dependent on foreign firms for advanced technology, while foreign chipmakers are dependent on China to buy their semiconductors. This interdependence has forced top semiconductor firms to form alliances and joint ventures with Chinese companies
  13. 13. Shivoo + India’s ambitious plan not moving forward n  India's ambitious plan to be a major player in semiconductors, taking on the Chinese and churning out locally-made chips for a new generation of smartphone users n  India's ambitions in electronics manufacturing include cutting net imports to zero by 2020, from about $40 billion last year. It is the world's fastest growing smartphone market with over 100 million sold last year - but almost all of those phones' chips and circuits are imported. n  The government boldly announced three years ago it would host two new $5 billion chip plants as part of a project to become a global manufacturing powerhouse, creating thousands of jobs, reducing its need for imports and taking on global rivals such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and GlobalFoundries. n  Just weeks after Jaypee Infratech, which was partnering IBM Corp and Israel's Tower Jazz, abandoned plans for one of the big chip plants, STMicroelectronics NV is set to scrap plans to build the other $5 billion plant as its main local partner failed to raise enough money from skeptical investors n  Consortium led by Indian start-up Hindustan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (HSMC) with STMicro and Malaysia's Silterra had not been able to raise the funding for the plant, and it might be scrapped. n  Reasons for failure: n  India's wobbly infrastructure n  Unstable power supply n  Bureaucratic red tape n  Poor planning n  The technology curve has moved ahead in the last three years, the global environment has changed and China has emerged as a big player 13
  14. 14. Shivoo + Typical Research Areas in Academia n  Physical Design CAD n  Design for Manufacturability n  Microwave VLSI Circuits n  Integrated antennas n  Signal Processing n  Trusted and secure processor and hardware n  Reconfigurable embedded systems n  High-Speed Communication Circuits n  Built-in Self Test (BIST) of Analog and Mixed-Signal Circuits n  Analog Layout techniques n  Power management Design n  Power Electronics n  Electron Mechanics n  Nano Scale Devices n  Electro Magnetics n  Photonics and Optical Networks 14
  15. 15. Shivoo + New Research Areas in Academia Examples from IISc/IITK 15 n  Socially relevant products – Low Cost ATM, Software Apps in Indian Language, Remote Medical Diagnostic Kit,Weather & Soil Quality Monitoring, Quick Charging
  16. 16. Shivoo + Next Big thing : 1. Drones n  UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) used in imaging, aerial photography, and aerospace. UAV flights are either controlled by autonomous onboard computers or by a remote control run by someone stationed on the ground or in a vehicle n  Platform combines multi-core processing, sensor integration, wireless communications, positioning, and real-time input-output for multiple robotics applications n  In 2015, according to DroneGuru, consumer drone sales are expected to grow to $1.5 billion.That includes China-based MCHI) DJI’s $1 billion revenues. 16
  17. 17. Shivoo + Drone Market: Recent investments n  Intel invests $60 million in Yuneec, a drone manufacturer. Intel also made investments in other drone companies such as Airware and PrecisionHawk n  Airware develops drone hardware, software, and cloud services. n  PrecisionHawk offers autonomy UAVs that integrate unmanned aerial systems with information delivery and sensing technologies to improve business operations for a plethora of diverse industries such as agriculture. n  Qualcomm (QCOM) invested in 3D Robotics, a US-based manufacturer of commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (or UAVs) n  Amazon (AMZN) announced its plan to use the drone Amazon Prime Air to deliver goods to its customers n  Google (GOOG) planned to do the same. Sony went a step further, launching drones as a service business unit that uses its image sensor technology n  Facebook (FB) is also testing a UK-developed drone to enable Internet connectivity in remote, unconnected areas. 17
  18. 18. Shivoo + Why technology players are flocking to Drone space? n  Consumer Electronics Association expects the global market for consumer drones to reach 425,000 units, an increase of 65%, from 2014 to 2015.  n  Business Insider Intelligence estimates also show that it’s the commercial or civilian drone market that’s expected to grow at a double-digit compound annual growth rate (or CAGR) of 19% from 2015–2020, whereas military space will only grow at a CAGR of 5%. n  ABI Research forecasts the market for small UAVs to exceed $8.4 billion by 2018. The commercial sector is expected to dominate the overall drone market by 2019 with >$5.1 billion in revenues. 18
  19. 19. Shivoo + Next Big thing :2 AR/VR 19 n  Augmented/Virtual Reality to hit $150 billion disrupting mobile by 2020 n  VR is closed and fully immersive, while AR is open and partly immersive – you can see through and around it. Where VR puts users inside virtual worlds, immersing them, AR puts virtual things into users’ real worlds, augmenting them n  Where VR is like wearing a console on your face (Oculus), AR is like wearing a transparent mobile phone on it (Magic Leap, HoloLens).
  20. 20. Shivoo + Next Big thing :2 AR/VR 20
  21. 21. Shivoo + Next Big thing :2 AR/VR 21 n  VR/AR in 2015 feels a bit like the smartphone market before the iPhone.These are amazing early stage platforms and apps n  Google Glass coming and going n  Facebook’s $2 billion for Oculus n  Google’s $542 million into Magic Leap n  Microsoft’s delightful HoloLens. n  There are both technical and social issues to resolve as both markets become real.
  22. 22. Shivoo + Next Big thing : 3. IoT Value Chain 22
  23. 23. Shivoo + IoT Challenges 23 n  Data Collection n  Data Mining n  Data Analysis n  Prototype à Massproduction
  24. 24. Shivoo + References n  Gartner Reports n  International Data Corporation n  MarketRealist website n  IC Insights n  http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0Z10XR n  http://www.digi-capital.com/news/2015/04/augmentedvirtual-reality- to-hit-150-billion-disrupting-mobile-by-2020/#.V2bKI7QxGHo n  http://www.digi-capital.com/news/2016/01/augmentedvirtual-reality- revenue-forecast-revised-to-hit-120-billion-by-2020/#.V2bNBrQxGHo n  http://m.timesofindia.com/tech/tech-news/Whats-stopping-India-from- becoming-a-major-player-in-chip-market/articleshow/52762414.cms 24
  25. 25. Shivoo + THANKYOU shivoo.koteshwar@gmail.com www.facebook.com/shivoo.koteshwar http://www.slideshare.net/shivoo.koteshwar/ 25

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