How to make your supply chain more robust with collaborative forecasting & transparency?
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In the growing biopharmaceutical market, diversity and demand of biologics has increased the complexity and vulnerability of global supply chains to disruptions. Collaboration between biopharmaceutical manufacturers and suppliers is crucial for supply robustness and control. An accurate demand and long-range forecast drive the right supply chain decisions such as capacity investments and expansions, at the right times to enable our combined success. In this webinar, you will learn about the importance of collaborative forecasting and transparency to product requirements. In this webinar, you will learn how: - And when to share an accurate, up-to-date forecast with your suppliers - The forecast information is used by the supplier to make supply network decisions - To partner with your supplier to ensure supply robustness
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How to make your supply chain more robust with collaborative forecasting & transparency?
- 1. Merck KGaA Darmstadt, Germany Aida Tsouroukdissian Head of Demand Planning, Integrated Supply Chain Operations 21 February 2019 How to make your supply chain more robust with collaborative forecasting & transparency?
- 2. 2 The life science business of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany operates as MilliporeSigma in the U.S. and Canada.
- 3. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 4. The first rule of forecasting – that forecasts are always wrong – is truer today than ever before. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 The Power of Resilience Yossi Sheffi
- 5. Demonstrate how collaboration between biopharmaceutical manufacturers and suppliers is crucial for supply robustness and control. Learn How and when to collaborate to mitigate potential supply risk With whom to partner to have a successful collaboration process How collaboration adds value How to measure success of the collaboration process How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Objective Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 6. 01 Collaboration Challenges 02 Supplier Implications 03 Demand Planning & Capacity Process 04 Organization 05 Collaborative Opportunities 06 Questions Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 7. How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Forecasting Future Biologic Manufacturing Capacity Requirements Challenges New Drug Product Classes Clinical Trial Results New Indications Manufacturing Scale Bioreactor Size Titer Projections Number of Batches Yield Shelf-life Bill of Materials Patient Demand Volume Uptake Dosage / Frequency of Administration Competition Market Share Biologic Product Launch Timing Approval by Regulatory Authorities, By Geography Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 8. How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Implications of Bill-of-Material Forecasts for Suppliers Forecast is Too Low Supplier is unable to meet customer demand 1. Out of stock 2. Disruptions 3. Allocation Forecast is Too High Supplier has too much capacity 1. Increased cost of goods 2. Negative working capital 3. Increased pricesCollaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 9. How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Our Process Review Business Review Demand Review Supply Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) Life Cycle Management (LCM) Capacity Review Process Budgeting OP Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 10. How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Long Range Planning Process Demand Planning Monthly Commercial Demand Review • Commercial Review 0-18 months Quarterly Portfolio Review • Business Review 3-5years Annual Strategic Planning Review • Business Review 10 years Semi- Annual Long Range Planning • Handover to Operations in COGS/units for Capacity Planning Assessment in June & November • Portfolio Review ➢ Understand upside opportunities and downside risks ➢ Collaboration process with customers ISC Reviews ➢ Long range demand plan driving long range capacity planning ➢ Annual process with twice a year assessment of global capacities and actions needed to mitigate risks Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 201910 Monthly/Quarterly Customer Collaboration Review Molecule Mapping
- 11. S&OP Connection with Capacity Review Process Portfolio review Demand Plan Phase In/Out & Trends Long Range Plan Commercial Area (0-18 months) Business Area (0-5 years) How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Demand Planning Trends Review Business Review Demand Review Supply Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) Capacity Review Process Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S&OP Portfolio Review Long Range Plan (LRP) Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 12. How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust With Collaborative Forecasting? What Do We Do With Your Forecasts? Resources Global Supply NetworkManufacturing Production Lines & Sites Use Information to execute in the short-term and make long-term Investment Decisions Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019
- 13. How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? Demand Planning – Your Collaboration Partner Head of Global Demand Planning Global Portfolio Planning Tools & Data Management Commercial Planning Global Strategic Accounts Regional Accounts Custom Planning Portfolio by Customer Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 Global MKT OPS MKT COMM Global DP Global COMM SD
- 14. Communicate up-to-date requirements monthly Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Collaborative Forecasting? What Can You – As Our Customer – Do? 1 By Manufacturing Site Location: • Country/Region 2 By Molecule: • Phase I, II, III • Commercial 3 By Material: • Supplier SKU – Identify “critical” RM’s with Unit of Measure • Quantity required by month with 12 Month rolling forecast • Long Range Plan 3-5 years
- 15. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Transparency? What Can You – As Our Customer – Do? Share your Confidence Level of the accuracy of the forecast Share the Market Outlook for the molecule based on patient demographics, competitive information and more Highlight changes based on previously provided forecasts, risks and opportunities Share strategic information influencing the Demand Plan • Planned inventory strategy changes • Terminal buys of pre-change inventory • Risk mitigation activities, such as dual sourcing • Large capacity investments • Brexit, Tariffs, Regulatory 1 2 3 4 Confidence High Medium Low Legend Increase On Track Decrease
- 16. Be more transparent Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Transparency? What Can We – As Your Supplier – Do? 1 By Product Classification • Lead Times • Potential disruptions 2 3 By Forecast • Trends • Highlight deviations By Process • Provide guidance • Share best practices
- 17. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust? What Do We Do With Your Forecasts? Actions: 1. Analyze and confirm forecast by request date 2. Enter information into planning system 3. Hand over to Operations’ Partners – Highlight changes, trends, risks & opportunities 4. Drives decisions Result: Improved Service Levels
- 18. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Transparency? Portfolio Segmentation
- 19. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 How To Make Your Supply Chain More Robust with Transparency? Together, We Can Strengthen Our Supply Chains 1 Realize the Power of Collaboration 2 3 Implement a Supply Chain strategy with collaboration as a core element between Planning : Planning teams Develop mutually agreed KPIs and jointly improve on-time delivery metrics & meet patients’ needs for life-saving & life-enhancing drugs 110 85 95 76 105 100 92 100 95 100 105 94 75% 70% 82% 76% 82% 83% 84% 86% 88% 89% 91% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 # of Lines % OTIF Target
- 20. Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 Closing remarks "Curiosity is not only about finding new ideas. It is about being able to deal with the new, the complex. It is about being able and willing to continue even if the new brings unpleasant feelings with it.” Carl Naughton Linguistic Researcher at the University of Cologne, Germany Educational Speaker & Member of the Merck KGaA , Darmstadt, Germany Curiosity Council
- 21. Stay Ahead. Supply robustness & Control Collaborative Forecasting | 21 February 2019 Any Questions? aida.tsouroukdissian@emdmillipore.com
- 22. The vibrant M is a trademark of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany or its affiliates. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Detailed information on trademarks is available via publicly accessible resources. © 2019 Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany and/or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved.