1. A s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s e c o n o m y c o n t i n u e s t o r e c o v e r f r o m t h e r e c e s s i o n w h i c h p l a g u e d
t h e e n d o f t h e l a s t d e c a d e , s o m e d i s t i n g u i s h i n g c h a n g e s a r e a r i s i n g i n t h e r e a l e s t a t e
a r e n a : n a m e l y c o n c e r n i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n i n d e m o g r a p h i c s , t h e b a l a n c e b e t w e e n h o m e
o w n e r s h i p a n d r e n t i n g , a n d t h e s h i f t f r o m b u y e r p o w e r t o s e l l e r p o w e r . T h i s r e p o r t
i l l u s t r a t e s a n d a n a l y z e s t h e m a i n f a c t o r s t h a t i m p a c t e a c h c a t e g o r y .
Melanie Siddle
Yueda Real Estate
U.S. REAL ESTATE MARKET
2. 1. The market is
comprised mainly of
younger, financially
stable buyers.
32%27%
16%
15%
10%
Age
Millennials
Generation X
Young Boomers
Old Boomers
Silent Generation
MillennialsGeneratio
n X
79%
21%
Yearly Income
(those wtih income over
or equal to median
household income)
Homeowners
Non-
Homeowners
~Born 1965-1979 (36-
50 years old)
~Generally upsizing
~Motivation: Change
in family situation
The first generation to
overtake the Baby
Boomers, these buyers
want upgraded
housing as their
families grow.
~Born 1980-1995 (20-
35 years old)
~Generally upsizing
~Motivation: desire to
own a home
Also called Generation
Y, these buyers
statistically want
bigger and permanent
places to call home.
2.
Generation
X
49%
51%
Yearly Income
(Those with income less
than median household
income)
Homeowners
Non-
Homeowners
The median family income is based on the
distribution of all family incomes across the nation.
This means that half of Americans are above the
median, and half are below. Since the half above
the median (shown in the first pie chart below)
respectively contributes more to the housing
demand, companies want to focus on them.
Homeownership rates by age and income
1.
Millennials
3. 26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Rent Rates 2007-2015
2. These buyers are
increasingly beginning to
buy homes, rather than
renting them.
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Homeownership Rates
2007-2015
The real estate market in the U.S. is currently comprised of buyers who are under the age of 45, with a median
income of $52,250 per year. Statistically, when a buyer reaches the age of 45, his prospects of buying a home
decrease. Older buyers typically want to downsize, and will usually only move once more in their lives. This is why
the focus has been, and will remain, on younger buyers. Members of Generation X and Generation Y (Millennials) are
looking to upsize and upgrade their homes. Though the recession halted this push for homes (as many young people
switched their strategy to renting homes), statistics show promise that home buying will assert itself once again, as
it remains the main motivation of Millennial buyers. It should also be noted that those making at or above the
median family household income are much more likely to buy a house, making these people the most attractive for
real estate companies.
Homeownership rates have been sinking for the past 10 years, and are presently at the lowest rate since
1993 (63.7% in the first quarter of 2015). Consequently, renting rates have been steadily increasing, reaching
a 20-year high of 35.5% in 2014. Yet, the market is shifting its focus to homes. Why? Mainly because of one
reason: credit.
Credi
t
4. $-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Average
Price of a
Home
Inventory
3. Power is shifting back
to sellers.
Interest
Rates
This is a measure of Months of Remaining Inventory, or MRI.
An MRI of 6-10 months (worth of houses on the market)
indicates a balanced market, while a higher or lower
inventory indicates a respectively strong or weak market.
While inventory has been glutted since the recession, it has
started to shrink. Presently, there are a speculated 4 months
worth of houses sitting on the market, the lowest rate since
2006. The low inventory levels are leading sellers to push
new homes into the market, as the inventory shortage is
taking the freedom of choice away from buyers. This is giving
sellers the advantage in the real estate market.
Credit standards have been strict since the
recession period. This directly impacted
Millennials. Rather than giving Millennials
loans for new homes, banks and mortgage
companies generally refused, wary of the high
risk. This created the decline in mortgage
commitments, as shown on the left
(concerning fixed rate mortgages). The
commitment rate hit its lowest point in 2012,
at 3.35%. However, recently the restrictions
have loosened, and more and more first-time
home buyers are pushing their way back into
the market, as they can now receive loans.
The commitment rate reached its highest
point since the recession in 2013, at 4.49%.
2014 showed a higher overall average than
the previous year, and 2015 shows promise of
further increasing the average.
Prices
Interest rates are starting to tick
up again, after lying at near-
nonexistent levels during the
recession (these rates are
specifically federal funds rates,
not the rates that buyers are
offered). The foreboding increase
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Monthly Average Commitment
Rate to New Mortgages
0
Months
20
Month
s
Strong Balance
d
Weak
6 11
20122015 2009
2011:
0.12%2012:
0.12%2013:
0.12%2014:
0.12%2015:
0.31%*2016:
1.25%*
*2015 and 2016 are
both forecasts.
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5. MARKET
ING
MODEL
Average
Price of a
Home:
1990:
$149,800
2000:
$207,000
2007:
$313,600
2010:
$272,900
2014:
$369,000
Because the real estate market is affected by multiple factors, a country may choose different options
accordingly. A complex net of factors necessarily produces a complex marketing model. That being said, the
model below has condensed multiple legitimate factors into three key areas. It should be noted that this model,
while accurate for the majority of the U.S., might therefore vary from region to region.
Housing prices have
steadily increased in the
past few years as the real
estate market has
recovered from the
recession. While they are
slowing, they are still
increasing, leading more
potential buyers into the
market, giving the same
result as the credit
standards, inventory rates,
and interest rates: giving
power to the seller.
Old or young buyers?
Young buyers-under
45 years old.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR
THE UNITED STATES:
Question
1
REAL
ESTATE
6. The main
idea
The Chinese real
estate market is
WHAT
IT
MEANS
FOR
YUEDA:
Old or young buyers?
buyers or sellers?
Rental properties or
homes?
The main
idea
The U.S. real
estate market is
shifting into a
sellers market,
which focuses on
building homes
rather than
rentals and
caters to younger
buyers and their
needs, as the
economy
stabilizes.
Buyers or sellers?
Sellers market.
Yueda can look
at three
questions and
use their
answers to form
a parallel
market model.
While there are
Rental properties or
homes?
Homes.
Question
3
Question
2
Question
1
Question
2
Question
3
7. { T h i s r e p o r t ’ s i n f o r m at i o n i s t a k e n f r o m t h e f o l l o w i n g : T h e S t a t e o f t h e
N a t i o n ’ s H o u s i n g R e p o rt 2 0 1 5 , a s p u t f o r t h b y t h e J o i n t C e n t e r f o r H o u s i n g
S t u d i e s o f H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y ; T h e U . S . C e n s u s ; N a t i o n al A s s o c i a t i o n o f H o m e
B u i l d e r s ; R e a l t y R e s e a r ch a n d S t a t i s t i c s ; E c o n o m a g i c ; a n d r e s o u rc es a t
N e w c a s t l e C o n s t r uc t i o n, I n c . }