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Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD Epidemiology Worldwide
CKD versus C-K-D
(Setting the record straight…)
RCPE, October 2013
Professor Meguid El Nahas, PhD, FRCP
Professor of Nephrology, Sheffield Kidney Institute
Chairman, Global Kidney Academy
Sheffield, UK
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Epidemiologists Clinical Nephrologists
CKD versus C-K-D:
The Gap between Epidemiologists and Nephrologists
CKD C-K-D
Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD
5%
10
%
15%
50%
Sheffield Kidney Institute
WHAT IS THE
EVIDENCE???
Are Nephrologists capable of Critical Thinking?!
EVIDENCE
QUALITY
INTERPRETATION
USEFULNESS
Sheffield Kidney Institute
US Population CKD Prevalence
Stage/Category % number
1 GFR:>90 3.3 5.9 millions
2 89-60 3 5.3 millions
3 59-30 4.3 7.6
4 29-15 0.25 400,000
5 <15 0.2 345,000
Total 11 19.2millions
CKD
ESRD
ESRD UK: 842/million
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Incidence of ESRD US
USRDS 2012
Sheffield Kidney Institute
cCKD = Older People
cCKD Epidemiology
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Prevalence of CKD
USA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Prevalenc
e (%)
20-39 40-59 60-69 70+
Age Group (years)
<2%
>30%
<1%
>40-50%
Sheffield Kidney Institute
NEOERICA, UK
Stevens et al, 2007
>30%
Sheffield Kidney Institute
De Lusignan et al, 2011
70% have CVD
80y
Sheffield Kidney Institute
eGFR Decline with Age
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Subjects with Co-Morbidities (HT/T2DM/CVD)
Subjects without co-morbidity
Creatinine clearance (ml/min)
Age Decline in KF and Co-Morbidities
Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Ageing
Lindemann, 1985
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Independent Predictors of incident cCKD
ATS
Chonchol et al, 2010
Baseline Carotid IMT
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Risk of developing cCKD with Ageing
Kshirsagar et al, 2008
+
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Figure 2.
Association of Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease Measures with Kidney Function Decline
Shlipak et al. Page 11
NIH-PAAuthorManuscriptNIH-PAAuthorManuscript
Progression of cCKD and Sub-Clinical CVD
Shlipak et al, 2009
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Figure 1.
Association of Clinical Cardiovascular Disease with Kidney Function Decline
Shlipak et al. Page 10
NIH-PAAuthorManuscriptNIH-PAAuthorManuscript
Progression of cCKD and Overt CVD
Shlipak et al, 2009
Sheffield Kidney Institute
cCKD
Age related decline in GFR
+
CVD
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Microalbuminuria
Marker of :
Cardiovascular Disease
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Albuminuria & Ageing
NHANESIII
19%
32.7%
Garg et al, 2002
Sheffield Kidney Institute
MA // Atherosclerosis
Hermans et al, HOORN Study
Atherosclerosis
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Minamino and Komuro, 2008
Ageing and Vascular Damage
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Minamino and Komuro, 2008
Albumin
Ageing and Vascular Damage
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Steno Hypothesis
Deckert et al. 1989
Albumin Leak Skin
Albumin Leak Kidney
Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD
Albuminuria
Sheffield Kidney Institute
El Nahas, KI 2010
C-K-D( Cardio-Kidney-Damage)
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Age impacts on outcomes in CKD
O’Hare A et al. 2007
210,000 subjects, eGFR<60mls/minute/1.73m², outcomes at 3.5 years
cCKD
Death CVD Risk
rCKD
ESRD Risk
Sheffield Kidney Institute
cCKD
cCKD have underlying CVD…
As manifested by low GFR & Albuminuria
&
Therefore those with high GFR & Albuminuria
Higher risk of dying from underlying CVD…
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Epidemiologists
CKD : Predictor of CVD Risk
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
CVD
“CKD”
Computerised Databases
Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD Consortium, Lancet 2010
CKD and Mortality Risk
Sheffield Kidney Institute
WHAT IS THE
EVIDENCE???
Are Nephrologists capable of Critical Thinking?!
EVIDENCE
QUALITY
INTERPRETATION
USEFULNESS
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Epidemiologists
CKD : Predictor of CVD Risk
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
CVD
“CKD”
Computerised Databases
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Global CKD Screening Programmes
Canada
USA
Mexico
Cuba
Morocco Egypt
RSA
Iceland
Holland
Germany
UK
Spain
Belgium
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Korea
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Australia
Argentina
Venezuela
Brasil
Chile
Peru
Bolivia
Paraguay
Italy
Switzerland
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Iran
Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD
5%
10
%
15%
50%
Sheffield Kidney Institute
McCullough et al, 2012
IKF not CKD!
Sheffield Kidney Institute
McCullough et al, 2012
Mostly Older People
Sheffield Kidney Institute
McCullough et al, 2012
Quality of Studies Questionable!
Sheffield Kidney Institute
WHAT IS THE
EVIDENCE???
Are Nephrologists capable of Critical Thinking?!
EVIDENCE
QUALITY
INTERPRETATION
USEFULNESS
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Epidemiologists
CKD : Predictor of CVD Risk
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
CVD
“CKD”
Computerised Databases
Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD Consortium, Lancet 2010
CKD and Mortality Risk
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Lancet 2010
CKD and Mortality Risk
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Life Expectancy and eGFR
Gansevoort et al, 2013
age
eGFR:120-45
eGFR:<45
Sheffield Kidney Institute
KDIGO 2010
Lancet 2010
Sheffield Kidney Institute
cCKD
cCKD have underlying CVD…
As manifested by low GFR & Albuminuria
&
Therefore those with high GFR & Albuminuria
Higher risk of dying from underlying CVD…
Sheffield Kidney Institute
WHAT IS THE
EVIDENCE???
Are Nephrologists capable of Critical Thinking?!
EVIDENCE
QUALITY
INTERPRETATION
USEFULNESS
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Chang and Kramer, 2011
Sheffield Kidney Institute
+ 0.003 (0.3%)
2013
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Clase et al, 2011
-
+
CVD Outcome +/- eGFR and uACR
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Sheffield Kidney Institute
2013
+ = High risk of Bias
_
=
Not
Clinically
Useful
Sheffield Kidney Institute
2013
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Epidemiologists
CKD : Predictor of CVD Risk
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
Associations….
CVD
“CKD”
Computerised Databases
Sheffield Kidney Institute
Older People with CVD = C-K-D
cCKD = C-K-D
Sheffield Kidney Institute
CKD C-K-D
Epidemiologists Clinical Nephrologists
The Gap between Epidemiologists and Nephrologists
Sheffield Kidney Institute
People
>60!
5%
10
%
15%
25%
Sheffield Kidney Institute
http://www.gkaonlineacademy.com/forum
Further Discussion…

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Sheffield Kidney Institute: Bridging the Gap Between CKD and C-K-D Epidemiology

Editor's Notes

  1. This has been confirmed since; for instance individuals with microalbuminuria tend to be those with more severe atherosclerosis (ATS) and vascular stiffness.