1. STORM OF THE CENTURY…
of the Week
March 3-7, 2001

2. Why This Storm is Famous:
Pulling a “Bolaris”

4. SLP, 12hr Precip(in) and 850mb Winds(knts)

5. Overview
3/3 00Z: Air mass boundary
3/4 00Z: Closed surface low forms
3/4 12Z-3/5 12 Z: Development of surface and upper lows
3/4 12Z-3/6 00Z : Examination of Cyclogenesis through
temp advection, Stretching
3/6 00Z: Mature Stage forecasted snow for Philly
3/6 12 Z: The beginning of the end
Comparison of Forecast and Validation

6. 03/03 00 UTC: Warm Front in Right Entrance of Jet

7. 03/04 00Z: Closed Surface Low Forms

8. 3/04 12 Z
3/05 00 Z
3/05 12 Z

9. 3/04 12Z Temp advection with height = cyclogenesis
12 hours later

10. 3/04 12Z: Lower temp advection = change in upper Rossby waves

11. 24 Hours Later….

12. 3/05 12Z: Positive Feedback

13. 3/04 12Z: Temp
advection at surface =
advection of thickness
3/05 12Z: 300mb Rossby
waves enhanced=more
vorticity=strengthening
of low= more T
advection
= Positive Feedback

14. Stretching Term:
3/04 00Z
3/04 12Z
3/05 00Z
Increase negative
omega with
height
Stretching of
air
Increase
Vorticity
Intensify Low

15. 3/06 00Z: Mature Stage

16. 3/06 12 Z:
3/07 00 Z:
500mb Relative
Humidity and
Surface
Temperature
The beginning of the end

17. Were Warnings Justified?

18. 3/06 00Z: Forecast vs Validation of 300mb Heights

19. 3/06 00Z: Forecast vs Validation of SLP

20. Comparison of
Forecasted and
Validated 300mb
heights and SLP
300mb heights
3/06 00Z
SLP
3/06 00Z

21. 3/05 12Z Forecast
Thickness and SLP
3/05 12Z Validated
Thickness and SLP
3/05 12 Z Comparison of Thickness and SLP

22. 3/06 00Z Comparison of
Trenberth Forcing
Validated
Forecasted

23. One Last look at totals: