1. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
BANK OF ENGLAND- INTEREST RATES
The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 0.50 percent. Interest Rate in the United
Kingdom is reported by the Bank of England. Interest Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 8.10 Percent from 1971
until 2014, reaching its peak level of 17 Percent in November of 1979 and a record low of 0.50 Percent in March of
2009. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England has operational independence. Decisions on interest rates are taken
by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Inflation has fallen again to hit its lowest level for four
years at 1.7 per cent, delivering the Bank of England
yet more room for manoeuvre in holding base rate
lower for longer. The inflation outlook has now
switched around. Rather than a feared pick-up in
price pressure driving expectations of a rate rise, it is
now below target inflation that may hold base rate
down. Consumer prices inflation rate for the last 10
years has finally fallen below the 2% target for the
first time since early 2010. Howard Archer, chief UK
and European economist, at analysts IHS Global
Insight, says: 'Our current view is that the Bank of
England will likely start edging interest rates up in the
second quarter of 2015, and that they will reach 1.0% by end-2015 and 2.0% by end-2016.
The most recent Bank of England credit conditions survey -
covering the first three months of the year - showed conditions
improving for both companies and households, yet there are
still concerns over rates and fees being imposed on small and
medium-sized firms. The sticky nature of lending to small to
mid-sized firms and concerns remaining over household
finances' resilience are a key driver in the Bank's desire to
keep base rate lower for longer. Some of the main components
which will determine a change in interest rates are Inflation,
Unemployment and credit conditions.
2. BANK OF CANADA- INTEREST RATES
The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 1 percent. Interest Rate in Canada is reported by the Bank
of Canada. Interest Rate in Canada averaged 6.02 Percent from 1990 until 2014, reaching a record high of 16 Percent
in February of 1991 and a record low of 0.25 Percent in April of 2009. In Canada, interest rate decisions are taken by
the Bank of Canada's Governing Council. The official interest rate is the Bank Rate. Since 1996 the Bank Rate is set at
the upper limit of an operating band for the money market overnight rate. Previously, from March 1980 until February
1996 the Bank Rate was set at 25 basis points above the weekly average tender rate for 3-month Treasury bills.
In Canada, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 was slightly stronger than the Bank anticipated, and upward
revisions earlier in the year further raised the level of GDP. The Bank still expects underlying growth of around 2 1/2 per
cent in 2014, with the current quarter likely to be softer. Exports have been a little stronger than previously thought but
continue to underperform, and overall business investment has yet to pick up. Meanwhile, recent data support the
Bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the housing market and stabilizing debt-to-income ratios for households.
Inflation expected to be well below target of 2% for some time, the
downside risks to inflation remain important. At the same time, the
risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not
materially changed. The Bank judges that the balance of risks
remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary
policy is appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the
target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The timing and direction
of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new
information influences this balance of risks.
Canada's central bank decided to leave the overnight rate
unchanged at 1 percent, as widely expected, citing balanced risks to inflation, housing market and household debt.
Both total CPI and core inflation in Canada are still expected to follow roughly the path outlined in the January Monetary
Policy Report, although recent readings were slightly higher than expected. Excess supply in the economy and
competition in the retail sector will likely keep inflation well below the 2 per cent target this year.
3. RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND
The benchmark interest rate in New
Zealand was last recorded at 2.75 percent.
Interest Rate in New Zealand is reported by
the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Interest
Rate in New Zealand averaged 8.08
Percent from 1985 until 2014, reaching
record highs of 67.32 Percent in March of
1985 and a record low of 2.50 Percent in
April of 2009. In New Zealand, interest
rates decisions are taken by the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand. The official interest
rate is the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The
OCR was introduced in March 1999 and is
reviewed eight times a year by the Bank.
The OCR influences the price of borrowing
money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and
inflation.
One of the most influential factors which help to
determine the movement of the official cash rates
in New Zealand is the ‘Gross domestic
production’. New Zealand has an advanced
market economy, highly dependent on
international trade. The country is closely link
with Australia, which is the biggest importer of
“kiwi” products, supplier and investor. New
Zealand’s most developed industries are focused
on tourism and exports of agricultural products
and are the main source of growth. Yet, in order
to keep current expansion rates, New Zealand
needs to address persistent current account
deficits fuelled by heavy household debts and low
domestic investments. In its December monetary
policy statement the bank forecast gross domestic product growth over the next two years would outstrip the rate that is
sustainable given fundamental factors like growth in the workforce and productivity, implying increasing inflation
pressure albeit from a low base.
HOUSING, LOANS AND MORTGAGES
There has been some moderation in the housing market. Restriction on high loan-to-value ratio mortgage lending are
starting to ease pressure, rising interest rates will have a further moderating influence. However, the increase in net
immigration flows will remain an offsetting influence. “So many people are on either floating rate mortgages or a fixed
rate mortgage that will have to be reset soon, and we have become a lot more cautious with our attitudes towards
borrowing as well." An economist at the Reserve bank of New Zealand said rising interest is likely to change people's
behaviour, meaning they won't need to climb too dramatically.
4. US INTEREST RATES
On April 30th, US Federal Reserve tapered
monthly asset buying to $45 billion, its fourth
straight $10 billion cut, and said further
reductions are likely. Interest Rate in the
United States averaged 6.07 Percent from
1971 until 2014, reaching record highs of 20
Percent in March of 1980 and a record low of
0.25 Percent in December of 2008 due to the
financial crisis.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The
Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and
labour market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with
its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labour market as nearly
balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to
economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back
toward its objective over the medium term.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months
and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as
appropriate, until the outlook for the labour market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming
information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labour market conditions and
inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in
further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a set course, and the Committee's
decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labour market and inflation as well
as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
5. AUSTRALIA INTEREST RATES
The benchmark interest rate in Australia was last recorded at 2.50 percent. Interest Rate in Australia is reported by the
Reserve Bank of Australia. Interest Rate in Australia averaged 5.29 Percent from 1990 until 2014, reaching record highs
of 17.50 Percent in January of 1990 and a record low of 2.50 Percent in August of 2013.
Excerpt from the statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor:
In Australia, the economy grew at a below trend pace in 2013. Recent information suggests slightly firmer consumer
demand over the summer and foreshadows a solid expansion in housing construction. Some indicators of business
conditions and confidence have improved from a year ago and exports are rising. But at the same time, resources
sector investment spending is set to decline significantly and, at this stage, signs of improvement in investment
intentions in other sectors are only tentative, as firms wait for more evidence of improved conditions before committing
to expansion plans. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued.
The demand for labour has remained weak and, as a result, the rate of unemployment has continued to edge higher. It
will probably rise a little further in the near term. Growth in wages has declined noticeably. If domestic costs remain
contained, some moderation in the growth of prices for non-traded goods could be expected over time, which should
keep inflation consistent with the target, even with lower levels of the exchange rate.
Monetary policy remains accommodative. Interest rates are very low and savers continue to look for higher returns in
response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth is slowly picking up. Dwelling prices have increased
significantly over the past year. The decline in the exchange rate from its highs a year ago will assist in achieving
balanced growth in the economy, but less so than previously as a result of the rise over the past few months. The
exchange rate remains high by historical standards.
Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand, and help growth to
strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.
In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and
inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of
stability in interest rates.
6. EUROPEAN INTEREST RATES
The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 0.25 percent. Interest Rate In the Euro Area is
reported by the European Central Bank. Interest Rate in Euro Area averaged 2.47 Percent from 1998 until 2014,
reaching an all t high of 4.75 Percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0.25 Percent in November of 2013.
Looking ahead, we will monitor developments very closely and will consider all instruments available to us. We are
resolute in our determination to maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation and to act swiftly if required.
Hence, we do not exclude further monetary policy easing and we firmly reiterate that we continue to expect the key ECB
interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on an overall
subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy, the
high degree of unutilised capacity and subdued money and credit creation. At the same time, we are closely following
developments on money markets. The Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using also unconventional
instruments within its mandate in order to cope effectively with risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation.
The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the
euro area continue to be on the downside.
Developments in global financial markets and in
emerging market economies, as well as geopolitical
risks, may have the potential to affect economic
conditions negatively. Other downside risks include
weaker than expected domestic demand and
insufficient implementation of structural reforms in
euro area countries, as well as weaker export
growth.
To sum up, the economic analysis confirms our
expectation of a prolonged period of low inflation followed by a gradual upward movement in HICP inflation rates
towards levels closer to 2%. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms the picture of subdued
underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term.