SusEconomyNikravesh

1. GOP-DNC President - 2016 Election (2017-2024) Who do you vote for? CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Mean Unemployment Rate (2025) “Sustainable Economy” – a return to the Golden State

2. Introduction- Nikravesh • 2015- Present: Sr. Scientist- Strategic Consulting • 1994- 2015: Visiting Scientist - Lawrence Berkeley National Lab • Earth Sciences Directorate • Computing Sciences Directorate • Life Sciences Directorate • 2007-2012: CSE Director- CITRIS Program (UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Merced, UC Santa Cruz, and LBNL) • 2007-2012: CSE- Executive Director (UC Berkeley) • 2000-2007: BISC – Executive Director (UC Berkeley) • 2000-2015: Consultant – Strategic Consulting CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

3. Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics In this study, we used the Unemployment Rates for over 3000 US counties from 1990 to 2015, the New Economy Index, and the results’ of the US Presidential elections for all the US Counties, to predict the Unemployment Rates for each County into the future. Using the prediction for all the individual US Counties, we have predicted the US Unemployment Rates for 2025. Our predictions are based on the far left and far right policies/views based on Presidential Nominee’s affiliation to GOP and/or DNC and the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The Predictions are based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics. Note: Further refinement is needed to include Governor, State Legislation, and Senate and House of representative elections at county and state level into the model.

4. Presidential Election- Nominees (2008) DNC-Obama (Blue) vs. GOP McCain (Red) Yearly Mean Unemployment Rate-2008 Obama Percentage of Vote- 2008 Obama Percentage of Vote- 2008 Obama Percentage of Vote- 2008 0-20% 20-35% 35-50% 50-75% 75-80% 80% -100 0-20% 20-35% 35-50% 50-75% 75-80% 80% -100 McCain Obama CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Data Source: Bureau OF Labor Statistics & US Government

5. Presidential Election- Nominees (2012) DNC-Obama (Blue) vs. GOP Romney (Red) Yearly Mean Unemployment Rate-2012 Obama Percentage of Vote- 2012 Obama Percentage of Vote- 2012 Obama Percentage of Vote- 2012 0-20% 20-35% 35-50% 50-75% 75-80% 80% -100 0-20% 20-35% 35-50% 50-75% 75-80% 80% -100 Romney Obama CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Data Source: Bureau OF Labor Statistics & US Government

6. President Bush 89-92 President Clinton 93-00 President Bush 01-08 President Obama 09-16 Sept. 11-01 Iraq War March 03- Dec 2011 Gulf War Aug 90- Jan 91 Yearly Mean Unemployment Trend (1990-2014) CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Data Source: Bureau OF Labor Statistics

7. Yearly Mean Unemployment Trend (1990-2025) Predictions are based on most optimistic scenarios. Prediction based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Data Source: Bureau OF Labor StatisticsCopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

8. GOP-DNC President - 2016 Election (2017-2024) Mean Unemployment Rate (2025) Who do you vote for? Data Source: Bureau OF Labor Statistics Predictions are based on the far left and far right policies/views based on Presidential Nominee’s affiliation to GOP or DNC and the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. 0 2 4 6 8 10+ Policy 1- Party 1? Policy 2- Party 2? Prediction based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

9. Mean Unemployment Rate (2025) Pessimistic GOP-DNC? Green party GOP-DNC? Optimistic Data Source: Bureau OF Labor StatisticsCopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

11. Data Source: Bureau OF Labor StatisticsCopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Yearly Mean Unemployment (1990-2025) Web Interface- States Prediction based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

12. CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Yearly Mean Unemployment (1990-2025) Web Interface- States Prediction based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

20. Data Source: Bureau OF Labor StatisticsCopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Yearly Mean Unemployment Trend (1990-2025) Web Interface- Counties Prediction based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

26. CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics Yearly Mean Unemployment Trend (1990-2025) Web Interface- Counties Prediction based on Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

30. Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics What’s Next? We plan to use the same methodology for prediction and forecasting of other issues of interest and track the policies, monitor their impact and create what if scenarios to create new policies based on past successful and failed policies. We are interested in some of the issues that last for generations with big social and economical impact. To name a few but are not limited: 1- All type of survey at County and State level (such as State Legislation, Governors, House and Senate officials) 2- Interest rate 3- he State Economy Index (Knowledge Job, Globalization, Economic Dynamism, Digital Economy, and Innovation Capacity) 4- Diabetes and Obesity (Done) and Infectious and Chronic Disease 5- URC Crimes: Violent Crimes (murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault) and Properties Crimes (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft) 6- Teen issues 7- Education Index 8- Real State, Sales and Marketing, … CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

44. “Sustainable Economy” – a return to the Golden State  building upon massive scale datasets – streaming and static (sensors/social-economic)  employing sophisticated analytics, with an emphasis on modeling, simulation, and crowdsourcing  focus on major domains critical for human welfare and environmental quality (Environment and Security); urban metabolism and smart cities, food security, fresh water resources, public health, natural disasters, energy conservation, and ecosystem.  educating the next generation of interdisciplinary students and industry leaders A statewide initiative to create integrated systems and advanced analytic tools using advanced computational science and engineering & data science Mean Unemployment Rate 0 2 4 6 8 10+ 0 2 4 6 8 10+ CopyRight© Masoud Nikravesh 2014-2015 Machine Learning-AI Based Predictive Analytics

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