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Dansk økonomi og erhvervslivets
konkurrencevilkår
DJØF, 24. maj 2016
Malthe Munkøe,
Chefkonsulent, Dansk Erhverv
Ekstern lektor, Københavns Universitet
Dubai
Argentina
Detroit
”Disruption”
Anæmisk dansk BNP-vækst
Stadig langt under førkrise-niveau
76
78
80
82
84
86
88 2005K1
2005K2
2005K3
2005K4
2006K1
2006K2
2006K3
2006K4
2007K1
2007K2
2007K3
2007K4
2008K1
2008K2
2008K3
2008K4
2009K1
2009K2
2009K3
2009K4
2010K1
2010K2
2010K3
2010K4
2011K1
2011K2
2011K3
2011K4
2012K1
2012K2
2012K3
2012K4
2013K1
2013K2
2013K3
2013K4
2014K1
2014K2
2014K3
2014K4
2015K1
2015K2
2015K3
2015K4
BNP pr. indbygger er pt 6,3% under før-krise niveau, 1.000
kroner, 2010-priser
BNP pr. indbygger, 2010-priser, kædede værdier, (1000 kr.)
Underskud så langt øjet rækker
Lav produktivitetsvækst
Den der ubestemmelige følelse af at
fremtiden sker alle andre steder end her
Kompetence mismatch?
Hvor interesseret er du i at lære eller udvikle de følgende teknologi-relaterede kompetencer (andel som svarer meget /
temmelig interesseret):
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Big data/dataanalyse Hvordan man bygger en mobiltelefon-app Hvordan man programmerer computer-software/hvordan man koder
Kilde: Norstat for Dansk Erhverv 2016 og Infosys
Hvad så:
Færre offentlige udgifter og/eller mere vækst
• Oplagt at tage fat på -
• Uddannelsessystemet
• Afgiftssystemet
• Skattesystemet
• Arbejdsudbud ”i bund”/sociale reformer
• Erhvervsregulering og byrder

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Dansk økonomi og erhvervslivets konkurrencevilkår

  • 1. Dansk økonomi og erhvervslivets konkurrencevilkår DJØF, 24. maj 2016 Malthe Munkøe, Chefkonsulent, Dansk Erhverv Ekstern lektor, Københavns Universitet
  • 6. Anæmisk dansk BNP-vækst Stadig langt under førkrise-niveau 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 2005K1 2005K2 2005K3 2005K4 2006K1 2006K2 2006K3 2006K4 2007K1 2007K2 2007K3 2007K4 2008K1 2008K2 2008K3 2008K4 2009K1 2009K2 2009K3 2009K4 2010K1 2010K2 2010K3 2010K4 2011K1 2011K2 2011K3 2011K4 2012K1 2012K2 2012K3 2012K4 2013K1 2013K2 2013K3 2013K4 2014K1 2014K2 2014K3 2014K4 2015K1 2015K2 2015K3 2015K4 BNP pr. indbygger er pt 6,3% under før-krise niveau, 1.000 kroner, 2010-priser BNP pr. indbygger, 2010-priser, kædede værdier, (1000 kr.)
  • 7. Underskud så langt øjet rækker
  • 9. Den der ubestemmelige følelse af at fremtiden sker alle andre steder end her
  • 10. Kompetence mismatch? Hvor interesseret er du i at lære eller udvikle de følgende teknologi-relaterede kompetencer (andel som svarer meget / temmelig interesseret): 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Big data/dataanalyse Hvordan man bygger en mobiltelefon-app Hvordan man programmerer computer-software/hvordan man koder Kilde: Norstat for Dansk Erhverv 2016 og Infosys
  • 11. Hvad så: Færre offentlige udgifter og/eller mere vækst • Oplagt at tage fat på - • Uddannelsessystemet • Afgiftssystemet • Skattesystemet • Arbejdsudbud ”i bund”/sociale reformer • Erhvervsregulering og byrder

Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/what-happened-to-argentina/?_r=0 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/778193e4-44d8-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz49BN7Joun riche comme un argentin" or "as rich as an argentine In 1909, per capita income in Argentina was 50 percent higher than in Italy, 180 percent higher than Japan, and almost five times higher than in neighboring Brazil. Over the course of the 20th century, Argentina’s relative standing in world incomes fell sharply. By 2000, Argentina’s income was less than half that of Italy or Japan. Var verdens 7. rigeste land Argentina investerer ikke i uddannelse og har for lidt innovation/teknologisk udvikling Slår ind på en protektionistisk vej Store offentlige selskaber snarere end konkurrence Politisk ustabilitet – ejendomsrettigheder i fare …
  2. 1950: 1,850,000 indbyggere. 2013: 701,000 Bilindustrien rammes af OPEC, konkurrence fra Tyskland og Japan….
  3. Velfærdsstaten blev dannet i tresserne og halvfjerdserne Verden har ændret sig og ændrer sig: Kapital og arbejdskraft meget mere mobile, mere behov for high-skill vidensarbejdere etc. Er vores økonomiske model ved at blive ”Disruptet”?
  4. http://www.dors.dk/files/media/rapporter/2015/f15/f15.pdf http://www.da.dk/bilag/Arbejdsmarkedsrapport%202013_net.pdf
  5. http://produktivitetskommissionen.dk/media/135897/rapport.pdf
  6. http://www.businessinsider.com/mckinsey-worlds-economic-center-of-gravity-2012-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
  7. http://politiken.dk/debat/klummer/poulaaroee/premium/ECE3106491/studerende-maa-ofre-suen-for-at-faa-bedre-uddannelser/ Vi bruger 47,5% af uddannelsesmidlerne på SU Afgiftssystemet…traditionel grænsehandel på ca. 11 mia. kr. ”e-grænsehandel” svær at estimere, men formentlig større i volumen (ikke nødvendigvis i mia.-tal for statskassen, men koster givetvis mange arbejdspladser) http://www.ugebreveta4.dk/ny-da-direktoer-vil-luge-ud-i-sociale-ydelser_20349.aspx http://www.skm.dk/media/1169390/Graensehandel2014.pdf