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Measuring GDP Deflator and Inflation Rates Over Time
1.
Chapter 2 The
Measurement and Structure of the National Economy 17 (c) The GDP deflator is the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP. In the base year, nominal GDP equals real GDP, so the GDP deflator is 1. In the current year, the GDP deflator is $200,000/$178,000 = 1.124. Thus the GDP deflator changes by [(1.124/1) − 1] × 100% = 12.4% from the base year to the current year. (d) Nominal GDP rose 257%, prices rose 12.4%, and real GDP rose 218%, so most of the increase in nominal GDP is because of the increase in real output, not prices. Notice that the quantity of oranges quadrupled and the quantity of bananas more than doubled. 7. Calculating inflation rates: 1929–30: [(50.0/51.3) − 1] × 100% = −2.5% 1930–31: [(45.6/50.0) − 1] × 100% = −8.8% 1931–32: [(40.9/45.6) − 1] × 100% = −10.3% 1932–33: [(38.8/40.9) − 1] × 100% = −5.1% These all show deflation (prices are declining over time), whereas recently we have had nothing but inflation (prices rising over time). 8. The nominal interest rate is [(545/500) − 1] × 100% = 9%. The inflation rate is [(214/200) − 1] × 100% = 7%. So the real interest rate is 2% (9% nominal rate − 7% inflation rate). Expected inflation was only [(210/200) − 1] × 100% = 5%, so the expected real interest rate was 4% (9% nominal rate − 5% expected inflation rate). 9. (a) The annual rate of inflation from January 1, 2011, to January 1, 2013, is 10%. This can be found by calculating the constant rate of inflation that would raise the deflator from 200 to 242 in two years. This gives the equation (1 + π)(1 + π) = (242/200), which has the solution π = 10%. An easy way to think about this question is this. A constant inflation rate of π raises the deflator from 200 on January 1, 2011, to 200 × (1 + π) on January 1, 2012, and to 200 × (1 + π) × (1 + π) = 242 on January 1, 2013. So we need to solve the expression (1 + π)2 = 242/200. (b) By similar reasoning, the inflation rate over the three-year period is (1 + π)3 = 266.2/200, or π = 10%. (c) We can derive a general expression in the same way: 1 + π = P1/P0 1 + π = P2/P1 ⋅⋅⋅ ⋅⋅⋅ ⋅⋅⋅ 1 + π = Pn/Pn–1 Multiplying all these lines together, we get: (1 + π)n = (P1/P0) × (P2/P1) × ⋅⋅⋅ × (Pn/Pn – 1) = Pn/P0 ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
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