Question? Is the Blockchain innovation ready for DApps for users? I analyze the implementation of the electronic wallets in the world and how they affect the success of Dapps
2. When will
it happen?
The Blockchain innovation of
eliminating the centralized
trusted agent is an innovation
that will take time
to become
mainstream
3. Innovations need a catalyst
to massify them, a killer app.
What was the killer app of
the Internet?
4. Email
This killer app was the reason we initially
went online several times a day, reaching a
point where email was open and connected
all day and present on our desktop.
5. How did email become
the killer app!
It was not an
overnight
release ;)
6. Milestones
1965
First electronic message. MIT
Compatible Time Sharing
System
1971
Tomlinson: Introduced the @
to target specific users on a
network and developed a way
of sending messages across
different computers
1973 - 1977
Email standards were
proposed at Darpa and
finalized with Arpanet
including to and from fields
and the ability to forward.
1978
Eric Schmidt writes Berkley
Network as his masters theses, an
early intranet over serial
connections
1988 & 1991
MSFT introduces MSFT email,
first to MacOS and the Dos and
WIndows, this was the
foundation for Outlook and
MSFT Exchange.
1989
Compuserve and Lotus Notes are
introduced
1990
Spam becomes a Problem. I did
not get your email!
1992
MIME Protocol is released
allowing attachments
1989
Compuserve and Lotus Notes
are introduced
1993
Outlook is released, AOL and
Delphi connect their email
systems.
1996
Hotmail is launched
1997
Yahoo Mail is released.
2004
GMAIL By invite only until 2007
and dropped the BETA in 2009
2005
Sender Policy Framework is
released to FIGHT SPAM
2007
Email goes mobile on the
IPHONE,although Blackberry
was mobile in 2003.
7. The Blockchain Killer App
I believe that electronic
wallets are the killer App
of the Blockchain
innovation. They will foster
usage and are
indispensable for the
massification of the use of
Crypto currencies and
tokens.
8. If the killer App is a
electronic wallet, so where
are we?
How many wallets are there
now?
9. I don’t know
But that won't stop us: because we can use
data points and infer a range
➔ Speculate
Looking at what we know
➔ Listen & Read
There are loose bits of data we can use
➔ Just getting close is good
We just want an order of magnitude
10. The Bitcoin
Blockchain has
21,000,000
● But, some of these are “HOSTED WALLETS”
providers.
● Coinbase has one wallet ( maybe more ) inside the
BTC Count, and they have about 20m users
● So the number of total wallets is much higher.
12. How many wallets are
there?
100,000,000 to
300,000,00
One hundred to
three hundred
million
20,000,000 to
50,00,000
Twenty to fifty
million
50,000,000 to
100,000,000
Fifty to one
hundred million?
Or none of the above?
13. What's the magic number at which
wallets become mainstream form of
payment?
14. To determine the tipping
point let's look at other
payment options.
When will commerce feel
compelled to accept an
electronic wallet payment?
15. What other forms of Global
Payments are there?
Checking
Accounts
Globally
About 60% of
adults have one
CC: Globally
Amex = 110m
MC = 800m
Visa = 900m
Debit Cards
MC and Visa
Each between 1
and 1.5 Billion
Keep in mind that 2.5 Billion adults have zero financial inclusion = NO bank or CC or DB.
16. The global tipping point is
probably somewhere around
400m wallets.
Bigger than Amex but
smaller that Visa/MC. Which
seller can afford to avoid?
17. Ready for some good news?
At 400m where are we in the
S-curve?
How many of us are needed
to massify?
18. If the internet
has 5b users
and there are
3.5b smart
phones, at
400m wallets
we will still be
the early
adopters of
the S-Curve
Penetration Today, in 2018 we are basically leaving the
innovators stage of the S-curve adoption.
19. We are in the very early stages of the
implantation of the Blockchain innovation.
We are a few years away from
being over the “early adopters”
threshold of 10% of the target
market.
So what are we doing now?
Let's ask those that
bet with their money.
20. The market is rewarding
two segments:
Platforms and
Currencies.
We are building the
Blockchain
infrastructure.
Stage 1, then will come
wallets and THEN Apps
will succeed.
21. Conclusion: we are building infrastructure,
if you launch an app, you will have to wait a
few years before you will have enough
wallets so that it can be adopted by a wide
segment of the population.
Thank you
Lboord@Gmail.com