6. Morningstar Fund Observer | 2nd Quarter 2016
Market Performance *
Local Market Indices 1 Month Quarter/YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
JSE All Share
JSE All Share SWIX
JSE Top 40
JSE SA Listed Property
JSE Small Cap
JSE Mid Cap
STeFI Composite
Beassa ALBI
-1.27
-3.02
1.17
-4.12
0.44
1.31
0.10
-0.43
3.83
4.12
2.63
11.04
13.03
14.80
12.77
14.32
13.81
15.68
13.35
18.54
2.270.10 17.534.58 15.36
1.84 11.073.24 14.03 15.75
6.85 5.906.180.59 1.78
4.04 4.40 5.24 6.30 7.90
Global Market Indices 1 Month Quarter/YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
MSCI World
S&P 500
FTSE 100 TR GBP
Nikkei 225 Average
Shanghai SE Composite
-0.55
0.26
4.72
1.19
2.46
6.54
-3.17
3.99
3.80
6.60
11.66
5.33
5.95
12.10
5.67
-9.47 -6.89 -21.56 6.25 11.73
13.970.45 1.18-2.47 -31.51
Top 10 Stocks by Market Cap
Quantitative
Moat
Quantitative
Fair-Value
Estimate
Quantitative
Valuation
Quantitative
Valuation
Uncertainty
Quantitative
Financial
Health
Naspers
SABMiller
Richemont
BHP Billiton
British American Tobacco
Steinhoff
Sasol
MTN
Old Mutual
Standard Bank
Narrow 89.56 Fairly Valued Medium Strong
Wide 760.51 Overvalued Low Strong
None 345.85 Overvalued High Moderate
Wide 108.99 Undervalued High Strong
Wide 1 984.01 Overvalued High Moderate
None 173.76 Fairly Valued Very High Moderate
Wide 809.77 Overvalued Low Strong
None 41.44 Undervalued High Strong
None 162.59 Undervalued High Strong
Narrow 154.49 Undervalued High Moderate
*All Returns are in base currency
JSE Sector Indices
-2.5
6.4
-1.8
-9.3
-5.3
17.8
-1.9
5.8
10.7
-2.1
-4.3
-2.8
5.3
6.2
3.3
3.0
5.0
4.8
0.0
-5.3
-18.7
14.6
7.0
-23.1
-25.0 -22.5 -20.0 -17.5 -15.0 -12.5 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0
Basic Materials
Consumer Goods
Consumer Services
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Technology
Telecommunication
Total Ret 1 Mo (Qtr-End) Total Ret 3 Mo (Qtr-End) Total Ret 1 Yr (Qtr-End)
7. Kyle Cox
Investment Analyst
Morningstar Investment
Management
2016 has, so far, been characterised by high levels of market volatility, with notable events both locally and abroad having a
strong impact on asset class returns during the second quarter. The UK's decision to leave the European Union fuelled
uncertainty in markets which helped buoy bond returns as investors sought out safe-haven assets, including gold. On the local
front, a stronger Rand and relatively attractive bond yields resulted in bond inflows which in turn led to domestic income-
focused categories producing the strongest performance over the quarter.
It was an interesting quarter for local markets as asset classes and sectors exhibited divergent performance through the
impact of differing underlying drivers. To this extent, rising commodity prices contributed to healthy gains from the resources,
weak growth expectations pushed financials lower, and a strengthening Rand negatively impacted most of the large rand-
hedge shares (which make up a significant portion of the FTSE/JSE All Share Index). Fixed income assets and gold benefited
from increasing risk aversion. As a result, the trend of lower returns from the largest unit trust categories continued, with
those more focused on income generation actually outperforming those with higher proportions invested in equity. The range
of returns apparent in assets and asset classes led to very similar performance from the multi-asset categories. For instance,
compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index 's return of 0.4%, the South African Multi-Asset categories all experienced similar,
low returns: Low Equity (1.4%), Medium Equity (0.9%), High Equity (0.6%) and Flexible (0.5%). The General Equity category
matched the index, with a return of 0.4% for the quarter.
Global markets were notably resillient during an eventful quarter, however the impact of Brexit towards the end of June
erased some of the earlier quarter gains. In US dollar terms, developed markets outperformed their emerging peers as
investors' risk appetite stalled. Continued Rand strength over the quarter pushed Rand returns from most offshore categories
into negative territory. Global Real Estate General was an exception and benefited from the strong gains in global property
markets during the quarter.
As with the first quarter of 2016, local categories dominated the list of best performing categories in the second quarter.
South African Interest Bearing Variable Term was top of the list with a healthy return of 4.2% in the second quarter, as
significant bond inflows led to declining yields and rising prices of fixed income assets. The next best performing categories
were South African Interest Bearing Short Term and Global Real Estate General with returns of 2.0% and 1.5% respectively.
With bonds outperforming equity in an environment of increased risk aversion, the categories with lower risk budgets
produced better relative returns over the quarter. In addition, Rand strength and market movements negatively impacted the
Rand returns of offshore allocations, which affected category performance.
The worst performing category for the quarter was Global Equity General with a return of -1.7%. Indeed, the impacts of Brexit
towards the end of the quarter coupled with a strengthening Rand negatively impacted all offshore categories in the second
quarter. The next worse performing category was Global Multi-Asset Flexible with a quarterly return of -0.5%.
The best performing funds in second quarter of 2016 were the Investec Global Gold fund (36.2%), the Old Mutual Gold fund
(18.9%) and the Ashburton Global Energy fund (18.0%). These results are not suprising, with higher levels of market
uncertainty tranlsating into a higher US dollar price of gold. There were also strong gains in the US dollar prices of iron ore and
oil during the quarter which helped portfolios with commodity exposure.
Meanwhile the worst performing funds included the Sanlam Pan-Europe fund(-7.2%), ABSA Global Value fund(-6.4%) and
the Aluwani Africa Equity fund (-6.3%). Rand strength as well as unfavourable market movements were the key drivers of
underperformance of the above mentioned funds over the quarter.
2016 has continued to deliver high levels of volatility which has been exacerbated by unprecedented events in global markets.
Investors have increasingly sought safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold, and, with economic growth faltering, these
traditionally less risky assets have outperformed equity in the second quarter.
*unless otherwise stated returns are quoted in Rand terms
Commentary
Local bonds show decent gains on the back of inflows, while local equities struggle in
an environment of low growth, a strengthening Rand and rising commodity prices.
Bonds outperform other asset classes as investors seek safety amidst
growing concerns in capital markets
Page 7Morningstar Fund Observer | 2nd Quarter 2016
8. Analysis Morningstar Rating Analysis : South African Domiciled
Asset Managers
Methodology
The Morningstar South African Rating Analysis of unit trusts is designed to compare managed fund ranges across South
African asset managers by aggregating their Morningstar Ratings. The research format is calculated on a quarterly basis. It
provides a quantitative assessment of the risk-adjusted return of all South African domiciled unit trusts carrying a Morningstar
Rating.
The Morningstar Rating for funds, often called the “Star Rating”, debuted in 1985 and was quickly embraced by investors. The
Morningstar Rating is a quantitative assessment of a fund’s past performance, both return and risk and is measured from a
minimum of one to a maximum of five stars. The methodology rates funds based on an enhanced Morningstar Risk-Adjusted
Return measure.
The Morningstar South African Rating Analysis aggregates the rankings of providers by brand name and thus provides a useful
insight into the strengths and weaknesses of a firm’s fund range. It is, however, not designed as a forward-looking tool and
does not indicate the future positioning of asset managers. This follows the line that the Morningstar Rating is intended for
use as the first step in the fund evaluation process.
The Morningstar South African Rating Analysis is a quantitative calculation. It delivers an Overall-Weighted and Asset-
Weighted ranking of asset managers and their South African domiciled funds. The rankings also show the percentage of assets
sitting in 4 and 5 Star rated funds across all rated assets.
The rankings by Overall-Weighted and Asset-Weighted Ratings both have their merits. The ranking by Overall-Weighted
Morningstar Rating mirrors the average quality of the overall fund range given that all funds are weighted equally. The Asset-
Weighted ranking gives a realistic assessment of an asset manager’s weakness and strength, in light of how investors
allocated assets between available investment options within the fund range.
The Morningstar Rating Analysis of Unit Trusts includes all South African retail domiciled funds with a Morningstar Rating. This
implies that funds belonging to several broad categories are excluded since they are not eligible for a Morningstar Rating. This
includes, amongst others, alternative funds, money market funds and commodity funds.
The Morningstar South African Rating Analysis includes 2 tables updated quarterly.
Table 1 shows the top asset managers in South Africa, ranked by Equal-Weighted Rating. Assets include rated South African
domiciled Unit Trusts. The column Equal-Weighted Rating shows the simple arithmetic mean of the overall Morningstar
Rating.
Table 2 shows the top asset managers in South Africa, ranked by Asset-Weighted Rating. Assets include rated South African
domiciled Unit Trusts. The columns showing the Asset-Weighted Rating represent the asset-weighted Morningstar Rating
average by the broad categories of equity, fixed income and allocation.
For both tables the column at the far right shows the percentage of assets sitting in 4 and 5 Star rated funds as a
percentage of total rated assets.
Page 8Morningstar Fund Observer | 2nd Quarter 2016
9. Analysis Morningstar Rating Analysis : South African Domiciled
Asset Managers
Table 1: Top Asset Managers in South Africa ( minimum R5 Billion, Equal-Weighted
Rating)
Table 1: shows the top asset managers in South Africa, ranked by Equal-Weighted Rating. Assets include rated South
African domiciled unit trusts. The column Equal-Weighted Rating shows the simple arithmetic mean of the overall
Morningstar Rating. The column at the far right shows the percentage of assets sitting in 4 and 5 Star rated funds as a
percentage of total rated assets.
Page 9Morningstar Fund Observer | 2nd Quarter 2016
10. Analysis Morningstar Rating Analysis : South African Domiciled
Asset Managers
Table 2: Top Asset Managers in South Africa ( minimum R5 Billion, Asset-Weighted
Rating)
Table 2 : shows the top asset managers in South Africa, ranked by Asset-Weighted Rating. Assets include rated South
African domiciled unit trusts. The columns showing the Asset-Weighted Rating represent the asset-weighted Morningstar
Rating average by the broad categories of equity, fixed income and allocation. The column at the far right shows the
percentage of assets sitting in 4 and 5 Star rated funds as a percentage of total rated assets.
Page 10Morningstar Fund Observer | 2nd Quarter 2016