The Context of a Pitch
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Abstract from SaberSeminar 2015
![[actually]
The Context of A Pitch
Kate Morrison
@unlikelyfanatic](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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The Context of a Pitch
- 1. Comfort and Confidence Exploring Individual Differences in Pitch Selection Kate Morrison @unlikelyfanatic
- 2. [actually] The Context of A Pitch Kate Morrison @unlikelyfanatic
- 3. Expand on the utility of labels--such as “out” pitches--to study selection and sequencing - What are other ways to group pitchers when discussing strategy or sequencing besides “hard/soft, breaking/offspeed/hard, etc.”? - Will these labels enhance pitch selection analysis and our ability to apply it? Objective
- 4. The Context of a Pitch Situation Objective Pitch selection
- 5. The Context of a Pitch Situation Objective Pitch selection ● game state ● batter ● time through order ● pitcher fatigue ● catcher ● get a strikeout ● get a grounder ● get a popup ● let him hit in the air ● waste one ● show one ● get back in count ● fastball ● offspeed ● breaking
- 6. The Context of a Pitch Situation Objective Pitch selection ● game state ● batter ● time through order ● pitcher fatigue ● catcher ● get a strikeout ● get a grounder ● get a popup ● let him hit in the air ● waste one ● show one ● get back in count Comfort/Confidence/Neutral AND/OR Out/Fallback
- 7. Some Potential Applications A way to provide common nomenclature in sequences between pitchers with different arsenals Catcher profiles and battery compatibility Usage changes of these pitches could be an input for pitcher projections
- 8. Proposed Terminology Out: The go-to pitch to end an at bat, particularly in a pitcher-favorable situation. Out pitches can be for whiffs, called strikes, or weak contact. Fallback: The pitch a pitcher goes to when the out pitch isn’t working, and/or when the pitcher is in an unfavorable/uncomfortable situation. Comfortable: Pitch relied upon in low-stress situations. (Fallback when a normally confident pitch is not.) Confidence: Pitch used in high-stress situations where a result is needed.
- 9. Proposed Terminology (con’t) Show-me: Pitch used when the batter isn’t expected to offer at it, sometimes to change speeds or change eye level, nothing more Drop-in: Similar to a Show-me pitch but intended to be a strike; demands greater confidence of the batter taking Waste: Something to set up a next pitch, looking for the batter to foul off.
- 10. Next steps continue to refine ‘categories’ identify new categories as needed prune categories put it into practice
Editor's Notes
- exploring AKA grapling with
- Does a pitcher’s “comfort” and/or “confidence” pitch affect their pitch selection in differing situations? Is identifying these secondary definitions a better way to study pitch sequencing? Embrace the concept of “more than one way to do it” . Don’t compare sliders and fastballs to sliders and fastballs, compare out pitches to out pitches etc. (While there are many ways to slice (and dice) pitching and pitch calling, what if there was a) by what type of pitches they throw so instead of "fastball slider changeup" sequences The comfort pitch as prediction tool is similar, conceptually , to Rob Arthur’s Pitch Distance metric, where pitchers tell you the batter is about to start hitting; they tell you by pitching away from the middle more and more
- so here we kinda back up and lay down the world the next slide drops in details
- game state is everything from the count in this AB, the score, the weather … so if you expect a low scoring game you may pitch differently and yes we know we’re ignoring location a bit, but the location is relted to the objective and the batter and the conditions
- CONTEXT INFORMS THE DESIGNATION OF THE PITCH guys have multiple fastballs and breaking ptiches which one do they like? this gets us into that mental state of the pitcher that the catcher needs to understand, and know what pitch the pitcher is most likely to execute on...or not shake off and be hesitant to deliver so you can see that we’re back to comfort/confidence, which can also be broken down as out/fallback. Or amended to include them.
- A different taxonomy of pitches, rather than “hard/breaking/offspeed” - a new way of looking at pitch selection Like with Rob Arthur’s Pitch Distance metric, as pitchers tell us when a hitter is about to start hitting, pitches may tell us when a pitcher is about to be cold. The comfort pitch as prediction tool is similar, conceptually , to Rob Arthur’s Pitch Distance metric, where pitchers tell you the batter is about to start hitting; they tell you by pitching away from the middle more and more
- These definitions begin with the “out” pitch, and expand from there into two types of commonly-seen pitches in stress situations. So, when I started looking into these different classifications of pitches, I tried to break things down into the definitions seen here. However, the further into research and discussion, the more evident it is that these definitions (and the pitches they classify) are malleable and more complicated than 10 minutes can explain. Ideally the out/Comfort pitches are not the same one. If you’ve lost your out pitch you may try and work with your Comfort pitch when normally you’d opt for the out pitch. Lose 1, and you’ve lost both. Another issue with an out pitch that is shown too often, (think fastball as the out pitch AKA early scherzer) is you’re not actually pitching backwards, you’re just pitching the same in all counts. Comfort - not a negative, necessarily, unless managed incorrectly. ←- seems like a note to me ----old defs. Comfort: A pitch thrown to get back into a count, something they feel comfortable throwing in a situation where a batter is unlikely to swing. Confidence: A pitch thrown ahead in the count, that may or may not adhere to conventional ideals for the situation. This can be the same as an “out” pitch, but is mostly identified from outliers.