Submit Search
Upload
Crystal Ball - 1.What's Risk
•
0 likes
•
354 views
K
KaitoKojima
Follow
Oracle Crystal Ball, KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
Read less
Read more
Data & Analytics
Report
Share
Report
Share
1 of 11
Recommended
Crystal Ball - 2.What's Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball - 2.What's Crystal Ball
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 4.How to use Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball - 4.How to use Crystal Ball
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 3.Application Examples
Crystal Ball - 3.Application Examples
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 13.Tornado Diagram
Crystal Ball - 13.Tornado Diagram
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 12.Regression Analysis
Crystal Ball - 12.Regression Analysis
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 11.Time Series Analysis
Crystal Ball - 11.Time Series Analysis
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 10.Output and Analytics of Results
Crystal Ball - 10.Output and Analytics of Results
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 9.Difine Forecast and Simulation Setting
Crystal Ball - 9.Difine Forecast and Simulation Setting
KaitoKojima
Recommended
Crystal Ball - 2.What's Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball - 2.What's Crystal Ball
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 4.How to use Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball - 4.How to use Crystal Ball
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 3.Application Examples
Crystal Ball - 3.Application Examples
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 13.Tornado Diagram
Crystal Ball - 13.Tornado Diagram
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 12.Regression Analysis
Crystal Ball - 12.Regression Analysis
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 11.Time Series Analysis
Crystal Ball - 11.Time Series Analysis
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 10.Output and Analytics of Results
Crystal Ball - 10.Output and Analytics of Results
KaitoKojima
Crystal Ball - 9.Difine Forecast and Simulation Setting
Crystal Ball - 9.Difine Forecast and Simulation Setting
KaitoKojima
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
Marius Sescu
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Expeed Software
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Pixeldarts
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
ThinkNow
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
marketingartwork
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Technologies
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
Neil Kimberley
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
contently
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
Albert Qian
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Kurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Search Engine Journal
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
SpeakerHub
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
Clark Boyd
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
Tessa Mero
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Lily Ray
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
Rajiv Jayarajah, MAppComm, ACC
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
Christy Abraham Joy
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Vit Horky
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
MindGenius
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
RachelPearson36
More Related Content
Featured
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
Marius Sescu
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Expeed Software
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Pixeldarts
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
ThinkNow
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
marketingartwork
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Technologies
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
Neil Kimberley
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
contently
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
Albert Qian
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Kurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Search Engine Journal
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
SpeakerHub
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
Clark Boyd
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
Tessa Mero
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Lily Ray
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
Rajiv Jayarajah, MAppComm, ACC
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
Christy Abraham Joy
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Vit Horky
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
MindGenius
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
RachelPearson36
Featured
(20)
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Crystal Ball - 1.What's Risk
1.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ 株式会社 構造計画研究所 〒164-0012 東京都中野区中央
4-5-3 TEL:03-5342-1090 Copyright © KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. Introduction リスクとは? リスク分析とは
2.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2 リスクとは? • リスクのイメージ – 「危険」、「不安」、「良くない結果を導く」ようなネガティブな 印象を持つことが多い • リスクとは – 成功する確率も、そうでない確率も含めたものを指す – 不確実性こそがリスク ある要因が、予測から外れる確率
3.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3 リスクとは? • 身の回りのリスク 生活習慣に よる癌発症 賃貸経営 新しい 手術 食の安全 環境 生態系 事業の 不良化 不良品 欠陥商品
4.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4 ビジネスのリスクとは? • ビジネスに関するリスク ビジネスの外にあるリスク ビジネスに内在するリスク 災害 犯罪 政治 法律 取引先の 倒産 為替 金利 事業評価 の見誤り 計画の 未達成 コスト オーバー 品質欠陥 保険・法務・危機管理・マニュアル など比較的対応されている あいまいな評価、予測至上主義、 声の大きい人の論理で評価され がち
5.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5 リスクの分析手法 一点 見積もり シナリオ 分析(三点法) What if 分析 従来の手法 最も起りそう、平均的に 起こりそうなケースを想定 特定のシナリオ(ベスト、 ワースト、最も起こりや すいケース)を想定 様々なケース を想定 予測に幅を持たせた手法 モンテカルロ・シミュレーション どのシナリオが、どの程度の確率で起こるのか 予測の範囲に収まる確率はどの程度か 個々の不確実な要素を確率分布として考え、乱数により起こりうる無数のシナ リオを再現することにより、起こりうる範囲と起こりやすさを知ることができる 主観的・決め 打ちの評価に なりがち
6.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6 期間 収入 ベストケース 最も有り得る ケース ワーストケース 期間 収入 数千、数万のシ ナリオを作成 おおよその ぶれ幅を予測 ぶれ幅と起こりうる 確率をシミュレー ションによって予測 各確率分布からシナリオを自動的に作成 モンテカルロ・シミュレーションとは? モンテカルロ・シ ミュレーション 3点法
7.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7 • 1986年 Decisioneering 社で Crystal Ball 誕生 → Hyperion社 → Oracle社へ (日本語化は、1992年) • “リスク分析” を行う “意思決定支援” ソフトウェア リスク分析ツールCrystal Ball とは? 3つの特徴 多様な シミュレーショ ン・分析機能 エクセル上で 分析が可能 専門的な知識 をそれほど 必要としない モンテカルロシミュレーション 感度分析 最適化アルゴリズム 時系列分析 使い慣れたエクセルで、不確 実性を表現 不確実性・ぶれに起因するリ スクを定量的に分析 マネージャーのための 意思決定支援ソフト
8.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8 リスク分析ツールCrystal Ball とは? • Crystal Ball の位置づけ インテリジェンスのレベル 情 報 の 不 確 実 性 数値化 グラフ化 統計分析 予測 最適化 予測 見る 把握 理解
9.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9 Crystal Ball 適用分野 シックスシグマ 販売管理 教育 環境 品質管理 事業・企業評価 財務分析 投資ポートフォリオ ファイ ナンス プロセス 改善 ライフプランニング マネジメント 需要予測 在庫管理 ダイナミックDCF リアルオプション コスト管理 工程管理 歩留まりの予測
10.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10 • Fortune 500社中、85%以上の企業で採用 • GEグループをはじめ、多くの企業で社内標準ツールとして採用 • MBA Top50校中50校でコース採用 組織的導入の米国企業の例 航空・宇宙 製造 資源・エネルギー 製薬 公共サービス ファイナンス
11.
http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ Copyright © KOZO
KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11 お問い合わせ • E-mail: cb@kke.co.jp • TEL: 03-5342-1090 • HP:http://www.kke.co.jp/cb/ リスク分析/意思決定に関する情報、セミナー開催情報、事例etc.