On our current trajectory, the future of UX design will look much like the present, only worse. The gold rush mentality towards UX design as a “career” combined with Gresham’s Law (“bad money drives out good”) applied to design combined with automation from software platforms means we are increasing the pace at which bad designs proliferate. In this talk Joshua Randall will cite data from larger research companies like Baymard and Nielsen Norman Group as well as draw on examples from his career to paint a picture of the coming dystopia.

2. The Always Asked For Slide Deck
tinyurl.com/change-out-URL

3. OhioX.org
OhioX is a nonprofit membership organization that connects,
promotes, and advocates for tech in Ohio.
Ohio UX Roundtable
In Ohio, we should be investing more in defining, designing, and
delivering innovative user experiences to grow our economy and to
address social needs.
As we kept meeting as a group, we agreed to some basic goals to help
us get started:
• Raise awareness of UX careers
• Improve UX capabilities in organizations
• Increase the professionalization of UX

4. Where’s everyone from? (poll on Zuddl)
I am here

5. Who are you? (poll on Zuddl)
Which of these role titles is closest to what you do?
• UX-er
• Software Developer / Engineer
• People Manager
• something else

8. How long have you done stuff? (poll on Zuddl)
How many years of experience do you have,
across all of your "real" jobs combined?
• 0–5
• 6–10
• 11+

9. Bachelor’s degree, Philosophy, 1998
Master’s degree, UX Design, 2018
• 1 philosophical
concept
• X quotes from
philosophers
• Many times I ask the
question “why?”

10. Agenda
• Imagine This Future
• Syzygy
• Gresham’s Law
• Our So-Called Career
• How We’re Doing
• Artificial Untelligence
• How To Prevent the Future

11. Imagine This Future

12. Punchline: This Future is Now
image source: When a Stranger Calls (2006 version)

13. Syzygy, Antisyzygy, and Scotsmen
syzygy
/ sɪz ɪ dʒi /
any two related things, either alike or opposite
antisyzygy
the joining together of opposites
Caledonian Antisyzygy
“In the very combination of opposites—the Caledonian
antisyzygy— we have a reflection of the contrasts which
the Scot shows at every turn…. Oxymoron was ever the
bravest figure, and we must not forget that disorderly
order is order after all.”
sources: Merriam-Webster Dictionary; Collins Dictionary; G. Gregory Smith, Scottish Literature

14. “The test of a first-rate intelligence
is the ability to hold two opposing
ideas in mind at the same time and
still retain the ability to function.
One should, for example, be able
to see that things are hopeless yet
be determined to make them
otherwise.”
– F. Scott Fitzgerald

15. Gresham’s Law
“Bad money drives out
good.”
– attributed to Sir Thomas Gresham
(1519-1579), English financier and
advisor to Queen Elizabeth I
source: Economic History Association, “Gresham’s Law”, eh.net/encyclopedia/greshams-law/
Where both good and bad money enjoy similar legal-
tender status, and where all money must be accepted, the
employment of bad money becomes a dominant strategy
in what amounts to a Prisoners’ Dilemma game in which
both sellers and buyers participate.

16. Gresham’s Law Applied to Design
No, it’s not an exact analogy. People are not keeping good
design to themselves while using bad design for others.
Bad design is easier and cheaper (= debased!) compared
to good design.
“Just copy what Google / Apple / Microsoft / etc. is doing.”
Let’s take a look, shall we?

17. Material Design (Google)
source: Google Material Design, “Styles” page, m3.material.io/styles/shape/overview

18. Human Interface Guidelines (Apple)
source: Apple Human Interface Guidelines, “Sheets” page, developer.apple.com/design/human-interface-
guidelines/components/presentation/sheets

19. Fluent (Microsoft)
source: Microsoft Fluent UI, “Icons” page, developer.microsoft.com/en-us/fluentui#/styles/web/icons

20. Can you tell the difference any more?

21. Flat Design Has Inherent Usability Problems
Flat design is a web-design style that became popular
around 2012. It is still widely used today, and its overuse
can cause serious usability problems. One of the biggest
usability issues introduced by flat design is the lack of
signifiers on clickable elements.
Since flat design’s emergence in 2011, Nielsen Norman
Group has been a vocal critic of its inherent usability
issues. Our primary objection to flat design is that it tends
to sacrifice users’ needs for the sake of trendy aesthetics.
source: Nielsen Norman Group, “Flat Design: Its Origins, Its Problems, and Why Flat 2.0 Is Better for Users”, Kate
Moran, September 27, 2015, nngroup.com/articles/flat-design/

22. Yet Flat Design Continues to Dominate
sources: Citibank, Capital One, and KeyBank mobile apps (iOS) as of May 2023

23. Why is UXD So Susceptible to Gresham’s Law?
Because copying bad design is easy and fast.
“The iterative process relieves them of having to perform
rigorous planning, thinking, and product due diligence (in
other words, interaction design).”
– Alan Cooper, The Inmates are Running the Asylum
“Less-skilled engineers [or designers] are likely to take
shortcuts based on what’s easier to code [or design].”
– Kim Goodwin, Designing for the Digital Age

24. How is UX Design Doing as a “Profession”?
Our name for ourselves stinks.
• ‘Design’ is a terribly overloaded term.
• ‘User Experience’ is infamously squishy.
• And speaking of ‘users’….

25. “There are only two industries
that refer to their customers as
'users': illegal drugs and
software.”
– Edward Tufte

26. NNg’s 100-Year View of the UX “Profession”
source: “A 100-Year View of User Experience”, Nielsen Norman Group, nngroup.com/articles/100-years-ux/

27. Is Dramatic UX Job Growth Plausible or Desirable?
sources: various, plus data analysis by the author

28. Other (Real) Professions with Terminal Master’s Degrees, U.S.
sources: AICPA; NCARB; Interior Design magazine; AND; BLS; Nielsen Norman Group
Year Accountants
(CPAs)
Architects Interior
Designers
Registered
Dietitians
2010 646,000 104,270 87,500 80,000
2020 666,600 122,000 112,000 110,150
2030 748,400 125,300 120,000 115,100
* using NNg estimates and assuming U.S. accounts for 25% of world total
UX-ers (*)
xxx
37,500
250,000
2,000,000
Percentages with Master’s Degrees:
• Accountants (CPAs): 90%
• Architects: 48%
• Interior Designers: 6%
• Registered Dietitians: 45% (will be 100% after 2024)
• UX-ers: 15% (?)

29. U.S. BLS Projections for Digital Designers
Digital designers develop, create, and test website or
interface layout, functions, and navigation for usability.
• design digital user interfaces or websites
• design and test interfaces that facilitate the human-
computer interaction and maximize usability
• May create graphics used in websites and manage
website content and links
Number of Jobs, 2021 197,100
Job Outlook, 2021-31 23% (much faster than average)
Number of Jobs, 2031 242,500
source: Occupational Outlook Handbook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note that these numbers include “web developers” alongside “digital designers”, although it not clear to
me how “web developers” are carved out from other developer jobs tracked by the BLS.

30. UX Lacks Many Attributes of a Profession
source: Spins on User Experience, Keith Instone, 2021, spin.dexterityux.com
Criteria of Real Professions Does UX “Profession” Have This?
Full-Time Occupations Yes
Training and Certificates No (those that exist are not widely
recognized and many are bunk)
University Programs
(Degrees, Labs, Research)
Yes,
although weak on labs and research
Body of Knowledge No
International, National, and Local
Associations
Yes, although more for practitioners /
afficionados rather than professionals
Standards and Standards Bodies No
Ethics No
Licensing No
Recognition by Governments to Self-
Manage or to be Regulated
No

31. How is UX Design Doing as a “Profession”?
Not very how.
image source: original Winnie the Pooh drawing, via Bibliodyssey

32. WebAIM Million: No Real Improvement
source: WebAIM Million 2023 report, webaim.org/projects/million/
percentage of home pages with detected WCAG (Web Content
Accessibility Guidelines) conformance failures over time

33. System Usability Scale (SUS) Score Changes:
From Terrible to Slightly less Terrible
source: Jeff Sauro, MeasuringU; various studies (see slide notes)
We’re not exactly crushing it.
43
52
News
26 41
Wireless Carriers
69
62
Flowers

34. Intranet Success Rates: No Improvement
source: Nielsen Norman Group, Intranet Usability Guidelines 3rd ed. (2011),
www.nngroup.com/reports/intranet-usability-guidelines/
2001-2002 (Study One) 75% success rate (“meager”)
2004-2005 (Study Two) 81%
2010-2011 (Study Three) 74%
How could the intranet design community’s work go
from below average, to good, to below average
again after more than 10 years of experience and
technology changes? This decline comes in part
from organizations that traded usability and
employee efficiency for easy-to-deploy technology
solutions with the latest trending features.

35. NNg Intranet Guidelines
Iterative Design
Frequent User Testing
Simplify, Standardize
Unify the Navigation
Use a CMS (Content
Management System)
Xxx
Frequent User Testing
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Improve Search [Nav]
Use Page Templates
[part of a CMS]
Be Agile [= Iterative]
Xxx
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Update Navigation
Use CMS Advances
2001 2010 2020

36. Overall E-Commerce UX Performance
source: Baymard Institute, “End of Year Performances”, baymard.com/ux-benchmark/chronicle
Why are e-
commerce
websites
getting worse?

37. source: Baymard Institute, “End of Year Performances”, baymard.com/ux-benchmark/chronicle
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Baymard
Data –
checkout
process
It’s been 10
years. Why
aren’t these
getting
markedly
better?

38. sources: Our World In Data (child mortality), Baymard Institute (e-com checkout process)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baymard E-com Checkout Process
Benchmark, % Poor-, 2012-2021
Poor- compared to Child Mortality

39. Mediocre+ compared to Life Expectancy
sources: Our World in Data (life expectancy), Baymard Institute (e-com checkout process)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baymard E-com Checkout
Process Benchmark,
% Mediocre+, 2012-2021

40. Anecdotal Evidence Suggest We’re Bad At Our Jobs
3 Mile Island nuclear
plant melts down due to
confusing and faulty
indicator light (1979)
John S. McCain
destroyer collides with
Liberian tanker, killing 10,
due to poorly designed
checkbox (2017)
Hawaii erroneous ballistic
missile alert panics world
due to poorly
differentiated list options
(2018)
Jeep Cherokee’s
Monostable shifter
causes 101 crashes, 38
injuries, and 1 death, due
to unclear interface
(2016)
20-year-old commits
suicide after
misinterpreting confusing
Robinhood trading app
U.I. (2020)
Air Inter Flight 148
crashes into mountain,
killing 87 people, due to
poor U.I. (1992)

41. Artificial ‘Intelligence’
Artificial, yes.
Intelligent, no.

42. ChatGPT Makes Up Stuff
If used as a brainstorming tool, ChatGPT's logical leaps
and confabulations might lead to creative breakthroughs.
But when used as a factual reference, ChatGPT could
cause real harm, and OpenAI knows it.
Not long after the model's launch, OpenAI CEO Sam
Altman tweeted, "ChatGPT is incredibly limited, but good
enough at some things to create a misleading impression
of greatness. It's a mistake to be relying on it for anything
important right now. It’s a preview of progress; we have
lots of work to do on robustness and truthfulness." In a
later tweet, he wrote, "It does know a lot, but the danger is
that it is confident and wrong a significant fraction of the
time."
source: “Why ChatGPT and Bing Chat are so good at making things up”, ArsTechnica, Benj Edwards, April 6, 2023

43. Devs Can Review ChatGPT’s Code? Umm…
source: Slashdot.com (various dates within past 6 months)

44. Word-Salad Generators Reflect Our Own
Thoughts Back to Us (Like Gaming ‘Oracles’)
source: Oracle tables from the game Ironsworn, by Shawn Tompkin; dice rolls via Google
Reject Dream

45. The Gartner Hype Cycle

46. Hype Cycle 2002
source: “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2002”, via Pinterest, pinterest.com/pin/253186810279135285/

47. source: “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2012”, Gartner Research, gartner.com/en/documents/2100915

48. source: “What’s New in the 2022 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies”, Gartner Research
Wait…*nothing* is in the trough
nor beyond?
Where are natural-
language stuff and
‘AI’????

49. When Did We Replace Reason with Madness?
image source: Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)

50. How Do We Prevent the Future?
Collaborate Less
Get Good
Obtain Power (to say “no”)
Speak the Language of Business
Become a Real Profession
Resist Hype

51. Stop Being Collaborators in Our Own Demise
We let ‘Product Management’ steal our stuff.
Or maybe UX is part of market research.
And it seems that developers gonna develop, regardless of
what we design.
(Therefor, we’d better start to learn to code.)

52. Poll Question (only UX-ers answer this!)
Within the last year, how many times have you been
invited as an active participant in any of the following:
(A) code writing;
(B) QA test script creation;
(C) marketing message creation.
• 0
• 1 or 2
• 3 or more
Consider: how many times did you, UX-er, invite others
as active participants in your decisions and processes?
Why are we doing this?

53. “If we must choose between
them, it is far safer to be
feared than loved.”
– Niccolò Machiavelli

54. Expertise is the First Step to Trusted Advisor
Trustworthiness = Credibility + Reliability + Intimacy
Self-Orientation
source: The Trusted Advisor, David H. Maister, Free Press (2000), p. 69

55. Technical Articles vs. Design Articles
source: Smashing Magazine, various articles (see slide notes)

56. Speak the Language of Business
Numbers.
Especially money ($ € £ ¥ …).
But also other metrics the business cares about.
Zack Naylor’s Mad Libs formulation:
I recommend we <design decision>
Because we learned <supporting research>
This will help us <relevant success indicator>
So that we can <overall goal statement>
without numbers
here, no-one will
listen to you (nor
should they)

57. How Do We Prevent the Future?
Collaborate Less
Get Good
Obtain Power (to say “no”)
Speak the Language of Business
Become a Real Profession
Resist Hype
Don’t Give Up Hope
Oh yeah… get back to user-centered design
fundamentals; those haven’t changed.

58. “Always you can see good and bad on
each side… so of course one ends up
doing nothing. Perhaps that’s what
evolution requires, to leave the field
free for younger, unencumbered
minds, and those not afraid to act. …
All societies are like that; the damping
hand of the old and the firebrand
youth together.”
– Iain M. Banks

59. Slides I Didn’t End Up Using, in the
Interests of Time

60. Physical World Design Isn’t Afflicted by Gresham’s Law
Image sources: too many to list; see slide notes
1950s 1980s 2023

61. Popular Jobs of the 1950s
source: Business Insider magazine citing U.S. Census Bureau data
Industry 1950 2017 Change
Logging 187,314 89,998 -57%
Laundering, cleaning, and dyeing 696,742 295,395 -58%
Blast furnaces, steel works, and rolling mills 691,184 270,367 -61%
Water transportation 212,979 74,362 -65%
Primary iron and steel industries 282,922 88,234 -69%
Apparel and accessories manufacturing 1,006,386 207,023 -79%
Tobacco product manufacturing 104,689 20,286 -81%
Railroads and railway transportation 1,436,681 254,836 -82%
Yarn, thread, and fabric manufacturing 897,266 107,607 -88%
Knitting mills 208,863 18,074 -91%

62. Fastest Growing Jobs Going into 2030
source: Forbes magazine citing Bureau of Labor Statistics projections
Statisticians
Information security
analysts
Data scientists and
mathematical science
occupations, all other
Logisticians
Operations research
analysts
Actuaries
Wind turbine service
technicians
Nurse practitioners
Solar photovoltaic installers
Physical therapist
assistants
Home health and personal
care aides
Medical and health services
managers
Physician assistants
Epidemiologists
Speech-language
pathologists
Animal trainers
Computer numerically
controlled tool
programmers
Genetic counselors
Crematory operators and
personal care and service
workers, all other
Health specialties teachers,
postsecondary
Forest fire inspectors and
prevention specialists
Interpreters and translators
Athletic trainers
Respiratory therapists
Substance abuse,
behavioral disorder, and
mental health counselors
Food preparation and
serving related workers, all
other
Nursing instructors and
teachers, postsecondary
Woodworkers, all other
Phlebotomists
Software developers
and software quality
assurance analysts and
testers